Bitcoin Forum

After the halving, May 2020 we didn't see much movement on the bitcoin price.
It just moves at the range of $9,000 - $9800.
Most veterans traders will see this as an abnormal event of bitcoin price.  ;D
It should be jumping with thousands of dollars just like what happened in March 2020 @$4800 then back to almost 9k.
It had been 2 months post halving.

Are the miners on strike to sell their coins?
Is this ($9200+) price of bitcoin not enough to secure all the bills that needs to be paid and some profit?
Are they keeping rewards pre-halving waiting for demand to take effect?
They cannot buy more bitcoin to increase the price due to pandemic? (Saving it for self necessities)

I don't have proof. I am just speculating here.  ;D
What do you think?

So you think we need to jump down to $3800? Do you have a reason to think a drop was imminant?

I think a drop is likely to come but I wouldn't put it on being now, it could be until September or even later before we rally up...

I doubt miners have this much of an affect on the price too, otherwise surely bitmain would just keep seeing how high they could pump it (or would've done when they had a large share).

WHY?


If they would be then there would be fewer coins on the market and the price would normally go up, not be flat. This contradicts what those veteran traders of yours claim.


That a lot of people have got used to stories about x100 again in a few years and when those don't happen again and again are starting to doubt everything, trying to see conspiracy everywhere, and blame whatever they find for the fact that just buying some coins and not doing anything else is not getting them rich overnight.
So, patience and don't plan your future on million on dollars that will sprout from your wallet overnight.


LE:

My impression was that he is amazed we're not back to 15k or even higher.

On the contrary, I think the miners are having good thoughts about what will happen next.
They are not selling, so a larger chance of a pump could happen.

I don't. I am just intrigued with how it is happening now. It's just way different with what it used to be.
I am not a fan of the jumping price like the 20k mark.

I think a lot of people are expecting an ath in q4 this financial year (Jan to Mar next year) or maybe q2, either way if I wee a miner and could find a way to finance the building or equipment to cover the electricity rates the why wouldn't you... Some predicted $300k some predicted just exceeding the ath, its still probably worth the risk especially if your funds ar eloaded with a stop loss/alerts anyway

Not abnormal at all. Something similar happened in the run up to the July 2016 halving. BTC doubled in price directly prior to the halving, then ranged (and eventually crashed 40% in total) in the months that followed.


It's true, miner outflows (in general and to exchanges) have been trending down. That tells me weaker miners squeezed by the halving are probably done selling, and stronger miners are waiting for a rally to sell into.

Outflow of Bitcoin From Miners at Lows Not Seen Since 2010 (https://www.coindesk.com/outflow-of-bitcoin-from-miners-at-lows-not-seen-since-2010)

Keep in mind, miners (just like traders) are not always right. :)

How can you call what happened in mid March a normal event? We had pandemic and half of world got locked down. That lock down lasted for 2 months.  Of course Bitcoin price crashed and of course it recovered as it always do. Current price is almost identical as few months after halving in 2016.  Late summer times in crypto trading are usually slow. Little volume since traders are taking vacations.

It was boring and dead after the previous halving. Same this time. The excitement is over. No halving hype. No virus terror any more either. That type of spasm can only happen once.

As for miners, any sensible miner sells their coin off market. There's no need to go on an exchange. OTC will take care of it. They're a market irrelevance.

I dunno. There's a chance the 2017 spike was caused by new retail seeing what happened before and thinking it'd happen again. 2015 was extremely static price wise form what to remember.


I dunno there might be some foolish enough tondump funds on the open market but yeah, weren't otc trades starting to be tracked though too or is that just a few desks that started tracking rates? I think otc btc buyers probably try to lock in a price for the month to keep the miner providing them funds too (and I think we're up more months than we're down)...

Right, there's no more hype after the halving, so no FOMO to push the price to what people wanted, $10k at least. But if there are no news to sell the market, then we will see investors looking for other ways to make money, maybe they got on board with the Defi and the whole staking. For miners, its been two months as the OP has said, those who wishes to cash out or wanted to exit the mining business is sure be gone by now. No sensible miners are trading thru exchanges, better options for them is OTC.

If you look at BTC historically we should expect this lull to continue through August and to at least mid September. With most likely going down slowly to 8k, 7k at most, not expecting to lose more then 20% of the current value, most likely numbers will be closer to 13-15%.

After that Covid second wave can be a factor and cause some disruption with further flash decline and recovery, but I think personally that Ocotber will be the beginning of bull, slowly rising to 9k-10k values again, breaking 10k-11,500 in November and rallying towards 17k in December, Jaunary.

After that I'm not sure if we are gonna range or continue and reach new ATH.

Of course I don't know shit, but this is my prediction in general.

I'm more positive that there could be some movement around the September timeline. Usually in the last quarter, people who have bitcoin in their radar or at least a pro bitcoiner will likely invest specially if the price is on a decline or too low.

We all know that bitcoin is an attractive investment, and even though that we are still in the pandemic, investors are still looking to make more money and bitcoin is a good options. And even if there are this so called miners strike, it will just have a short term effect. The price are still base on supply and demand.

It's not abnormal for miners to hoard their coins for quite some time and do nothing with it. They have been doing this for years and I don't see that practice changing since they only sell coins for the maintenance of their farms and some profits. Bitcoin swinging on the $9000-$9800 ranges and staying only on this range doesn't mean something isn't right. Most are used to bitcoin's volatility that they no longer acknowledge the fact that bitcoin also has its own period of stagnation or stability. I would go on to say that there isn't much incentives for people to trade hard with bitcoin, and most are into different things as of this moment. But yeah, I myself am hoping for a bull run, though the situation isn't apt for these things to happen just yet.

Seriously, yeah, why would "veteran" miners be surprised? We have had just the two halving events in the past and in both cases it took months before any significant swing happened in the market. If miners were expecting more of the same, then surprised would be the last thing they should be.

Hashrate after and now following the same patterns too, so clearly, they're not surprised.

From the top of the 2016 halving pump to the next swing low in August, it was a 40% drop. Not exactly boring! Granted the Bitfinex hack may have amplified the final dump, but for comparison, that kind of drop would put us in the $6,200s. Quite a drop from here.


I agree, we won't see anything equal to the March crash's magnitude. I do however think if the virus keeps up at this rate, we'll see lockdowns in the US again. Then the markets will take a big dump.

And there's our chance at the low $6,000s. :P

the only reason why this stage (being stuck below $10k and not going up) is unusual is because price was already rising before the panic sell broke out of nowhere causing the rise to stop and the market to see a sudden and huge drop.
otherwise seeing price stable in a range is not new and not unusual at all. and it has very little to do with halving and miners. the miners are already selling to stay afloat just like they have always been doing.

the main reason why we are stuck here at this point if you ask me is greed. everyone is waiting for a better entry price (such as $6000 ;)) that is why they are not buying but since the buy support at $9k is very strong they don't get their desire either. as a result they are now stuck waiting and not making any move.
usually when this happens, the only thing we end up seeing is a small break out above the resistance then a massive FOMO.

You mix things that are completely different, so what does a sharp decline in all markets (including Bitcoin) have to do with what happens after halving? What happened in March 2020 is the result of a pandemic, and halving itself has never been a sign of a new ATH - as shown by the examples of the past 2 halvings. I have to admit that I am disappointed to see that some people are thinking in the completely wrong direction, and do not have the ability to look at Bitcoin in a much broader context than itself.


Miners sell only what they need to sell, why would they sell everything they mine if there is no need for it? It should also be emphasized that miners are becoming less and less important link in the sense that the daily reward has been reduced to only 900 BTC. As we know they mostly sell over OTC, where they mostly get premium prices for their fresh (clean) coins.

Mining is still profitable, especially in China where mining costs are in the price range between $5000 - $6000.

You can't just compare the month of March and the months after the halving. Yes, bitcoin is volatile and can jump to thousands of dollars for a week or two and sometimes it just can't.
I didn't expected that there will eventually a bull just right after the halving. Give it like about a year or a year and half and we'll probably see the effect of it.

Due to pandemic the complete economic structure is under collapsed status which also affected the post halving bump on bitcoin prices.But I think mining forms are still continue to hold until they see enough price bumps, without doing this they can't make real profits.
In 2020, we are not going to see anything better for us anymore,I feel survival of this year itself a great task.

I think there is a misunderstanding here.
Perhaps my approach is somehow wrong due to a lack of how it had been expressed in English.
I am sorry for that, but I am trying.

The point is not really about the pricing. I don't really care much about it since I believe in the future of bitcoin.

It's about the strength of the miners to change the wave.
I know back then, they could buy more bitcoins while still mining to enhance their profit before they sell in full blast.
Manipulation for their electric bills and some profit which I don't think as a bad thing since they are in business.

For others:
It's not veteran miners.

Well, there is a dilemma with the miners and that is why the price is not moving that much. On one side they want to sell their coins that they mine because they would want to cover the cost of the operation, they are not doing this for free and that is one of the reasons why they want to sell, sure profiting and pocketing those profits and living in yachts etc would be cool, but before everything else they need to pay for the costs of the operation as well.

However on the other side they would want to make more profit right? I mean they would want to not sell and wait for the price to go up and when it goes up sell it all so they would make 2x or 3x profit right? Well that is why they don't know what they should do, they don't know if they should sell or wait and waiting could be very dangerous with all that cost.

We can all speculate but basing on of the things that you had mentioned on where comparing the current movement to those times that we are hovering from 3k price then i would say that i wont prefer to see those digits once again and of course we can really see increases yet its value isnt really that much high if we do compare on moving from 9k price to 13-15k onwards.That would require much time and recognition again
by the community.In talks of Miners profitability then we do know and its quite obvious that it isnt already feasible for them to do so basing of into the rewards which had been recently cut into half but on the current
network condition that there were still who stick out into this business.

As I wrote in a previous post, crypto miners lose more and more influence with each new halving because they logically have fewer and fewer rewards for their work. It is not the same to have 50 BTC and 6.25 BTC per block, which ultimately means a total smaller amount of freshly mined BTC that can affect the market. Although it is a common opinion that miners sell their BTC through OTC, because that way they do not cause a price drop, and also fresh mined coins can be sold at a premium price.

The influence of the miners (some of them) was most pronounced when some of them tried together with traitors like Roger Ver and CW Faketoshi to impose their forked BTC as the original, but of course it hit them hard on the head.

As for veteran traders, trust me they don’t see anything abnormal in price movements, and they make a profit (smaller or larger) no matter what happens in the market. Moving up or down by just a few hundred dollars doesn’t mean much to the average trader, but for those who have larger amounts of BTC it means quite a solid profit.

Thank you.
I understand it more.

I think I just got used to looking at the wild movements for a year.
Just being intrigued by the calmness of the fluctuations now.  ;D

Trying to explain the 10K USD to 9,2K USD price drop only with the miners selling their coins is a big oversimplification.
The BTC halving hype was gone so many traders decided to sell their coins and cash out their profits.
The constant negative news regarding the future of the global economy and the recession also have an effect in creating more selling pressure over the crypto traders.
The miners have less revenue,due to the halving,but the electricity costs in many countries(like mine) went down,due to the recession,so the mining costs went down as well.Based on that,I don't think that the miners will have any problems,that will force them to mass sell their BTC reserves.

As you mentioned it is nothing special with the price and we usually do not see any rally post halving and we usually see the rally after a few months to start the momentum for the rally and this time around there are other factors like the pandemic and economic crisis that is looming.

The miners will be selling the coins just to take care of their bills and there is no way that the miners will be purchasing the coins as all the major miners are holding a substantial amount of coins waiting for the rally and once the rally starts expect them to sell the coins.

^That is the trouble with waiting for miners to do something but also being hyped about the halving. With halving we are requesting the nature of bitcoin to give less power to miners, we are happy that there are less bitcoins mined per day, and 900 bitcoins less per day as well, so we are happy that miners do not make as much bitcoin as they used to do. However we end up waiting for them to stop selling, or even buying so that the price would go up as well.

We have to decide, do we want miners to have power so that they could change the price higher, or do we just not want them to have any power at all? If we are happy about the halving and the fact that they are mining less bitcoins now, that means we should hoping that they would do something that would benefit us as well.

Your own words, not mine


Since the price currently is at around ~ 9500 and as far as I can understand few means at least 3, a jump of a few thousand that was supposed to happen would bring us to at let the ~12500 mark, thus my approximation for the 15k level.


That OTC market is not something magical where you can go and sell at any hour of the day any amount, if there is no demand the miner has nowhere to sell. If the OTC deals were taking care of twice the volume in the past it either means that OTC dealers now get their supply for other sources which of course should have been seen in the price or, simply there is no demand at all and the whole thing about miners dealing mostly OTC was another myth.

There are two possibilities:
Miners still able to sell only through OTC or miners prefer to hold with the plan of selling my Christmas times.
Because, we are not having prices drastically falling if there is no enough demand in OTC markets and miners move into spot markets.

Yes before halving, miners might have been selling twice the amount of BTC than what they may do right now which makes us to assume that no selling pressure is being created by miners but obviously bitcoin market is lagging with new investors after pandemic. Fortunately bitcoin prices are stable which means new block rewards are somehow within the range of pandemic-hit demand levels. So, if there will be a recovery in our normal life which will impact on investors level as well so we can expect BTC prices to skyrocket because we are having lesser supply than what we had in last 4 years.

That's one possibility that they are going the OTC route, but the thing is that it won't affect the price drastically and we might not even know it.

We can only assume as we are still in the pandemic. Its good to see the that price is relatively stable, maybe the demand is not that high today. But it will soon evolve as well, and we are hitting record high as far as hashrate is concern, so there's no miners strike at all.

Individual miners even have less chance to earn anything from mining bitcoins before the halving due to mining difficulty spike and now they might stopped mining and waiting for the prices to increase, where as miner farms are going to run anyway because they have chances to make profits due to low expenses and also they have enough capital to cover the maintenance fees for long time.