Bitcoin Forum

Just thought I'd remind myself how this goes and I reckon we're around the first sell off point or we'll be coming to that (we could still be up to half way along the initial rise and just entered the institutional phase). The mean I'd pick would probably be around $6000-8000

https://transportgeography.org/wp-content/uploads/stages_bubble-e1588097141686.png

Edit: added bullish to title 23rd September.

After all the years and the experience i do have on this market then its quite really hard to follow up these kind of patterns yet we dont even know if we are on that first sell-off. Where we do base?

Im not saying that these movements or patterns are irrelevant but these things actually confuses me yet anytime you do look at this then you would really presume out on where we at already

when sudden price change do happen.Lets say we can presume out that we are still on take-off but actually we are already on that Greed state.

You got a point.
It kinda has similarity back on 2017. But for me, if ever we really in sell off point and become a bear trap, I don't see any below $6, 000 anymore here.
It's still difficult for now, we already fall below $10, 000 few days ago. Are we bouncing back on top again to make short trades? Let's hope not, bears are really pathetic now. More liquidations will come these days.

https://i.imgur.com/rYl1P3y.png

In the short term, I don't think we're going to go that much lower. Because funnily enough, instead of looking at bitcoin's chart itself, I tend to watch the S&P500 a lot more lately due to the price correlation. And we all know that the Federal Reserve is artificially propping up the stock markets.

I could be wrong, of course. Because I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin breaks the correlation trend sometime soon. Wouldn't be betting on it though.

■ bitcoin      ■ SPY

no, i think we are actually in the "despair" phase instead and the next phase which would be repetition of this whole thing from the start (take off) has not started yet.
in many ways these price levels we are seeing these days (between $10k and $12k) which has lasted a very long time (pre-pandemic era!) is the mean level that price is still struggling to stay above. after getting over this hump the take off will start and when price reaches the $20k levels the sell offs begin and everything else after breaking that resistance.

It could be the "First Selloff." It could also be closer to the "Take-off" phase.

I know some others around here think we're on the cusp of a mania phase like 2017, but the weekly and monthly price charts look and feel more like Q1 or early Q2 2016. A bull market, yes, but a bubble? No.

I would believe that we are not, well, no one would really know but I am bullish this year so far, that wouldn't change my belief even if the price will dump. Regardless of how much it will dump, I think we should not panic because we have already seen this many times and that picture you showed reminds me of what happen in the past, so "as long as we don't panic" we will not lose money here.

What, I was thinking the same thing, $ 6,000-8,000, will most likely repeat itself.

It has been one week since I withdrew all my investment assets in Bitcoin, my analysis is correct Bitcoin dropped to the level: $ 9600, and so on.

@jackg, is it possible that something could happen as you say, is this a good sign.

If you have invested in the $10k market price, selling will just result to profit so as much as possible, I would advise holding and waiting for an increase before pulling your investment IF you are no longer into "it". But if you are into investing and can afford waiting for a long period of time, investing at this point is I think, advisable but without assurance of when will the market price again, rise. Possibilities are either there would be a following uprise movement in its price or a deeper market price dump. Possibility is simply not equivalent to assurance. Therefore, market analysis of what to be done, is needed at times of such.

If we consider our ATH as the point of new paradigm in 2017 I think we are still at the point of the market cycle trying to reach that. Remember that during that time we only have that price point only for a few moments rather than really hang in there as compared to the price hovering around 10,000-11,000$. So for me we are still at the stage where Bitcoin is attempting to pursue a new ATH or at least near it to say that we are on a new market cycle now. Because with the price going up and all but without any volume supporting the price movement I doubt we are over a new market cycle.

you shouldn't just look at the current price but at the trend. for example in this case price is not "still going down". the dropped stopped days ago. it is now being dumped to $9900 and immediately bought back jumping back to above $10k ($10200 now) and since there are no more weak hands left there is no panic sell to push it lower. so either whales have to dump more or stop mini dumps for the price to go back up.

I think they're often more what you see/experience after a bull run, at the moment they may not be relevant to some but it's something to keep an eye to get an idea of how "the crowd" reacts.


II thought it was because both have seen aggressive moves recently. I'm hoping it doesn't remain a thing - especially if it only follows American markets as they could be slowing down soon in growth...


I think I'm expecting $20-24k to be the closing mean of the whole movement (the price we settle back to whenever we see the next 2015/(2018 - with the $3k prices for a long time).

We did see a large rise and I do recall thinking there'd be a sell off after the really weird pattern we had forming.

It's an iterative process so the first sell off and major sell off phase are extremely similar and it could be either.


I'd suggest maintaining a hodl position or having some way of quikcly buying back in if we see something very bullisjh and then a capitulation.

A breakthrough of $10450 would have made $9700 a lot more likely from my analysis, a drop to 9600 and further is possible but I'm not sure how likely it is - we could certainly overcorrect past the 9700 and if we do that and have a slow(ish) take off - that doesn't cause a gap in other markets, I'd say it's a pretty healthy movement.


You can have smaller cycles incide bigger cycles though?

Where did this picture come from buddy? I mean everyone keeps showing this all the time whenever there is a big increase and follow up drop.

Let's assume that this is actually true, where the hell is 2017 huge gain? If that is the peak, where the hell is the 2019 huge 3x almost 4x increase? If that is there where the hell is this year's $3.6k drop to $12k+ increase? Are you even aware how little you guys are putting faith into crypto?

We are talking about something much much bigger than just a picture, we are dealing with something that will make us a ton of money and time to time it will go down, that is fine, there is no problem with that.

Obviously it is not the end of the day right now, sure we went down but we always go down and up, I can guarantee you that eventually price will go up, but after that it will go down again and up again and continue that way.

It's just phases of a bubble? And a bubble is just a sudden increase in price that eventually bursts and resettles towards the mean.

The phase is recursive, the graph repeats itself over and over. It can be used to represent anything, the S&P and the ftse don't just go up - they drop every so often too.

I mean my point, if you'd look at the chart, is that now might be a good time to look at accumulating some funds if you've been holding just cash so far - for people waiting for dips. A 10-20% of potential investment entry wouldn't be a bad idea around now?

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Nothing rises linearly and continuously, it's the whole principal of some technical analysis: such as Eliott waves.

To be fair, it looks an awful lot like a bear pennant or bear flag:

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/-JBAe-Idn5k/maxresdefault.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/xHpJd0P.png

These are usually continuation patterns. Until I see some actual signs of reversal, my bias is still bearish.

buy the dips!

Lets see some stones here.

 There are no bears. Only bulls.

I'm a little confused at the moment, if I look at the current unstable market movement, it's been almost a week.

Thank you, @jackg for the information, maybe I will hold on for Bitcoin now for the next few days.
I will follow the updates here on the development of Bitcoin in the next few days, it seems that I will follow your instructions this time in a healthy manner.

It seems that I am not in a hurry to buy back, what might be a good move to wait a little longer $6000 or $8000, is my belief healthy.

So true. :D

The old hands get it: Bitcoin bears are really just bulls who want to buy lower.

I've still got cash on the sidelines myself, waiting to buy another round of panic. I'd love to shake out some more late bulls and see that $9,600 weekly CME gap filled.

I see this current descending triangle (as I'd name it, extasie called it a bear penant as both are quite similar) but either way we should break down to 9000 in the next move coming (if we don't cross 10.6k before a drop below around 9700 I think this comes even more likely).

While I don't think my analysis isn't too innacurate, I don't trade it with much compared to the size of my hold position just in case.


I dunno I'm sure there are people loading up the charts every so often hoping bitcoin fails because they lost their wallet or missed $150 and are just hoping they're proven right...

That being said, there sure are those optimistically buying all the dips and doing fairly well from it but in this case, we all switch from being bears to being bulls at some point.

I'm just hoping we don't end up with a fake out before the gap fill but we got close to it last night.

The best version of this sentiment graph shows or emphasizes how it runs in a loop maybe a gif would be appropriate, people get carried away when its  repeated positive and too gloomy when its negative.   2018 end was too gloomy and events like March sell are forgivable for being unforeseen and not predictable.  I think we return to the mean because its a really easy guess to say that as its the most likely thing to happen.   For me the mean would be the 200 day average as its the most observable regular but still bullish indicator.   Others might be more harsh and assume we'll always go back to 200 week or the really hard sells, I'm never that certain and I think 200 day is probably good enough to be talking about dips and buying in without catching a uptrend exactly.  
   i think we've lost the uptrend since March and any time thats observable then we pullback a bit.   In Feb. we lost a trend, I think it even gained a new high after doing that but obviously we did get our sell and a couple expected that.   I'm mostly just noting when BTC steps off the escalator many people will depart the easy ride and so price will go down a bit.  Losing 10500 as support just now is a bit of a reset, so we did hold below that for the moment and see if we hold below for a whole monthly bar then it counts more then just a falter.    Moving into winter just seems to be a time we have a harder time to rise, not sure why and not exactly logical to say :o

Holding right now is the smart way to go, people are too much in panic mode and we are not really at that level yet, people are overreacting to what's going on. Obviously this is not ideal and we would have been happier with a 15k price or even 100k price to be honest but just because it is a bit down doesn't mean that it is over, we are still looking strong and the price will definitely go up eventually.

It means if you do not panic right now and end up losing money, you could make more profit later on, could be today could be a year from now but you will make that money, I would rather way around for my profit to come versus just losing money and hoping my next trade could be more profitable, we never know how the next trade will be so it is smarter to just wait.

Bitcoin moves a couple of percentages up and suddenly everyone is longer bearish and no one is talking about the CME gap that still didn't get filled at ~ 9600 price levels.  If we're at the first sell-off phase, I don't think we're over it just yet. History shows that Q4 isn't really the best time for crypto markets. In the past, we've seen several sell-off in the months leading to December. I think we would be seeing more downsides in the coming months. Given that bitcoin has been correlated with stock market assets, I won't be surprised.

I still believe that we're in a bull run but how many people would be willing to buy bitcoin at $15K right now given the current financial situation caused by the pandemic?

Over the night bitcoin has show a recovery from the downward trend that was trip a little above $10,000 for more than four day. Today it is above $10375 resistance leve and that is a sign that another bull run may start very soon especially if it can go above $10500 before the closing of daily candlestick.

i don't think we can call this a "recovery" because price dropped from closer to $12k down to closer to $10k and unless it goes back up to where it was and on the same previous trend, it can not be considered "recovered".
similar to tiny drops that don't last long (reaching $9900 then jumping back above $10k) which are not downtrends and just market fluctuations.

I always compare bitcoin's price movement with the gold price movement because they have a similarity. Now, bitcoin is trying to reach strong resistance $10.500 that has been failed to be reached for three times. But if we see to gold price movement, now its price has successfully passed its strong resistance $1955, so in my prediction bitcoin could pass its strong resistance.

Aside from the market current price range, the momentum posed by the market shows that we're somehow in a stable price condition and the major keep player are the enthusiasm, arbitrage and day traders thats why we dont see huge pump in price.

This little tiny bumps in the price do mean something, it doesn't mean something big because lets face it anything could happen at any time, we could wake up to 20k or 5k and both are quite possible in crypto world but these small movements shows the sense in the community right now. When bitcoin goes from 10.1k to 10.5k that means something, that means buyers are still around and sellers are probably done, unless something major changes we are not going to see a fall, if we do end up however seeing some big changes that means price could still fall.

I am afraid of saying this will happen or that will happen because I am not entirely sure but to be perfectly honest with you guys, I feel like we are going above 11k again very soon, probably in a week or so.

Well, I think you have a misinterpretation here regarding this matter. Bitcoin price movements is totally different from the gold price movement, they don't have any correlation when it comes to price movement. As a principle of demand and supply, --you can able to determine the price of bitcoin. Unfortunately it looks like there is another correction will happen. Everyone waiting for the bounce back but nothing has happened. Selling during the market crashed is not a good idea, much better to hold and patiently wait until when it will happen of price grow. OP's technical analysis will perhaps become true, who knows about it.

The FED is debasing the monetary base for every citizen not just of USA but globally where dollar is used as a reserve currency in multiple countries as an exchange asset (trade, asset stability etc.).   Lets not credit them with anything especially positive, I'll only say they mean well but I dont find anything noble in actions which will certainly lead to failure.     A prop could be viewed positively where it helps heal the underlying structure but this will not, volatility will rise from excess easy money policy.

The current action is a pullback resolving slowly, I might presume downwards but its not especially proven that so far.   The largest point towards that argument is closing weekly bars below 10500 which I would take as another pin towards moving downwards.   July we moved upwards past this resistance only to now resolve downwards, that could be taken as a negative indicator for future action.

 BTC progress is not always linear sometimes its held back then rushes forward.   Right this moment its retreating from a 'good' ceiling or regular resistance and thats normal enough on off peak weekend hours though Japan enters its working week around about this time and earlier.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AhjQZ.png

Recent high is top of the range since we corrected downwards, I would still say this isnt especially negative at present and could just represent profit taking.   Trade above 10400 would be a near term positive but more important is to maintain this recent low which is weekly average and we've been positive since Friday while achieving this level as a low or support.   If we can hold below 10200 then we might get a larger move actually worth trading, its just a bit flat at the moment and I'd guess not the best place to put on risk and walk away.

Imo, this is either a "Bart" fakeout or we're going further down...

I'm not certain but I think we're in for at least filling the cme gap and potentially going further to the 8.8k regions.

I am trying to figure out if the people who are so much pessimistic about bitcoin could hang in the crypto world too long and how much they affect it. I mean sure there are some very downey people who keep bitcoin and they get out as soon as they get scared, but how many of them do get back in?

If you are a person who thinks that bitcoin can't be worth anything and it is going to eventually end up being zero and so forth, you should not be here at all, but every single time bitcoin falls I keep seeing people who think that bitcoin is nothing and it will be zero, like why the hell are they still here? What is the point of being so much down about bitcoin in the total? I can't figure it out but I hope that they will be gone one day and we will not have to deal with them.

Personally, I still do not believe in the growth of bitcoin above $ 15,000, because it is a very outdated token, there are more modern and advanced cryptocurrencies than bitcoin.

The market is at undecid level and I think anything can still happen. We are not far from what happened in September and October 2017 went bitcoin went down in the medium of the month of September.

You can believe any coin you want and you can have all the hopes you want from the new coins but the reality is no matter how many hyped coins that comes up, bitcoin still worths more than entire crypto market without it, so that means if you take ethereum which is second and from there down to last coin all of them combined do not worth as much as bitcoin.

Of course you have your right to believe whatever you want, but it is like saying mcdonalds is dated and will no longer be eaten or coca cola is outdated and nobody will drink it, obviously there will be smaller competition, obviously there is pepsi as well, but when you look at face value they will never be going down. Plus 15k+ is not that far away neither, I would totally understand if you said 100k but when you say 15k it is quite possible very soon.

No need to figure it out and theres no need to stress out yourself to look on the answers that you do have in mind on why these people are still here on this market.
We know that you cant pleased anybody and this is why we do really see different side of things when it comes to their mindset towards Bitcoin or as a whole.
There would be criticisms and negative views and inputs which can be commonly seen on dumping or bear market times and those words would be reverted to positive
when the market is shooting up.The same cycle would continue thats why i do able to say that you should be getting used to it.

Assuming this isn't aimed at me, I think they're probably sad they missed the boat in 2010, then 2012, 1026 and potentially around now.


It's the one EVERYONE'S heard of. Even if it's as "scary Internet money" online banking is still like that to a lot of people too... Point is they move on..

And what's the coin you like? I've never had to pay a $50 tx fee in bitcoin in 4 years (if it's eth).

Basically the stock market and crypto markets are highly correlated because bitcoin is considered a risk-on asset. You can pretty much get a head start shorting or longing crypto just by looking at what the stock markets are doing. Look for the last few trading days for global markets and see how when the NY markets opened and headed downwards crypto followed shortly after.

So basically if the stock markets keep correcting for the next few weeks so will bitcoin. If there is some major stock market crash where the circuit breakers keep going off then there can be a massive crash as in March 2020. However nobody knows exactly when this will happen. This all could be nothing but a dip in the stock market which was needed for a major correction.

The NASDAQ is only 12% down from the ATH, which is not at all too concerning. It would be concerning if it was -20% from the ATH which is considered a bear market and might lead to higher sell-offs and crypto would shortly follow.

I don't want to look into the chart because it only disappoints me and even thinks about selling (worries may come out) and exactly what I do now is to keep holding. I'd come in here for a reason and aiming for another ATH yet it somehow hard to reach this time but I was then to wait. No, market volatility will actually save me for this and there is a reason to believe that after their short dumps, pumps will be followed. I don't want to reckon the 2017 Bullish and bearish event, I assume that this year is quite different... ;)

Its the emotion what drives people to think negatively if something bad happen as well if there's something good and we cannot really please anybody to think the same since we have different attitude and understandings on the situation. So best for now to not get panic for some dumps and if we can't take to see the current market situation then better to dump to take the stress out.

To clarify, this was a bullish stance I have on the coin going up, I might change the topic to suggest that as quite a few are getting confused.

A small dip is what we need to go up healthily. A 2k drop is nothing to worry about... But it is a buying point.

Considering all these charts shared millions of times before, there is no reason to panic. Everyone keeps thinking that bitcoin had one big 20k run and that was it for bitcoin and it will never go back up to that level and never go beyond but it had a good run, from now on it will go at worst 5k and at beast 14-15k levels and it will move between these levels forever until it is no longer even used. That is literally the idea of some people but they are wrong, and they are very wrong at that as well, so at the end of the day just tell them they are wrong but do not try to convince them, let them sell under 10k when they are afraid and buy from them, that way you could possibly just focus on making as much as you possible can from their wrong ideas they force into themselves.

Bitcoin should be making some moves nowadays, I am not saying it will suddenly change a lot but if we are at a point right now, it is definitely at a point where people are reacting to worldwide stuff by having different sets of changes.

This "crisis" wasn't like any other, it wasn't financial, it wasn't anything else, we literally had our lives changed, people were driving everywhere, now we miss our walks in the park, we used to get together and chat with our phones in hand now we miss each other and call facetime, we used to fail reading and only watched netflix, we had enough of it and now book sales are high, even environment reacted better than expected.

This is not going ot be like any other chart, it is going to be incredibly different and bitcoin will be at the front lines so I am assuming it will go super high.