[bullish] Are we at the first sell off point now?.

[jackg]

Just thought I'd remind myself how this goes and I reckon we're around the first sell off point or we'll be coming to that (we could still be up to half way along the initial rise and just entered the institutional phase). The mean I'd pick would probably be around $6000-8000



Edit: added bullish to title 23rd September.

[carlfebz2]

Just thought I'd remind myself how this goes and I reckon we're around the first sell off point or we'll be coming to that (we could still be up to half way along the initial rise and just entered the institutional phase). The mean I'd pick would probably be around $6000-8000

After all the years and the experience i do have on this market then its quite really hard to follow up these kind of patterns yet we dont even know if we are on that first sell-off. Where we do base?

Im not saying that these movements or patterns are irrelevant but these things actually confuses me yet anytime you do look at this then you would really presume out on where we at already

when sudden price change do happen.Lets say we can presume out that we are still on take-off but actually we are already on that Greed state.

[GreatArkansas]

You got a point.
It kinda has similarity back on 2017. But for me, if ever we really in sell off point and become a bear trap, I don't see any below $6, 000 anymore here.
It's still difficult for now, we already fall below $10, 000 few days ago. Are we bouncing back on top again to make short trades? Let's hope not, bears are really pathetic now. More liquidations will come these days.

[mk4]

In the short term, I don't think we're going to go that much lower. Because funnily enough, instead of looking at bitcoin's chart itself, I tend to watch the S&P500 a lot more lately due to the price correlation. And we all know that the Federal Reserve is artificially propping up the stock markets.

I could be wrong, of course. Because I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin breaks the correlation trend sometime soon. Wouldn't be betting on it though.

■ bitcoin      ■ SPY

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/cryptocurrency/btcusd/charts

[pooya87]

no, i think we are actually in the "despair" phase instead and the next phase which would be repetition of this whole thing from the start (take off) has not started yet.
in many ways these price levels we are seeing these days (between $10k and $12k) which has lasted a very long time (pre-pandemic era!) is the mean level that price is still struggling to stay above. after getting over this hump the take off will start and when price reaches the $20k levels the sell offs begin and everything else after breaking that resistance.

[exstasie]

Just thought I'd remind myself how this goes and I reckon we're around the first sell off point or we'll be coming to that (we could still be up to half way along the initial rise and just entered the institutional phase).

It could be the "First Selloff." It could also be closer to the "Take-off" phase.

I know some others around here think we're on the cusp of a mania phase like 2017, but the weekly and monthly price charts look and feel more like Q1 or early Q2 2016. A bull market, yes, but a bubble? No.

[Botnake]

I would believe that we are not, well, no one would really know but I am bullish this year so far, that wouldn't change my belief even if the price will dump. Regardless of how much it will dump, I think we should not panic because we have already seen this many times and that picture you showed reminds me of what happen in the past, so "as long as we don't panic" we will not lose money here.

[YOSHIE]

Just thought I'd remind myself how this goes and I reckon we're around the first sell off point or we'll be coming to that (we could still be up to half way along the initial rise and just entered the institutional phase). The mean I'd pick would probably be around $6000-8000

What, I was thinking the same thing, $ 6,000-8,000, will most likely repeat itself.

It has been one week since I withdrew all my investment assets in Bitcoin, my analysis is correct Bitcoin dropped to the level: $ 9600, and so on.

@jackg, is it possible that something could happen as you say, is this a good sign.

[CODE200]

If you have invested in the $10k market price, selling will just result to profit so as much as possible, I would advise holding and waiting for an increase before pulling your investment IF you are no longer into "it". But if you are into investing and can afford waiting for a long period of time, investing at this point is I think, advisable but without assurance of when will the market price again, rise.

Just thought I'd remind myself how this goes and I reckon we're around the first sell off point or we'll be coming to that (we could still be up to half way along the initial rise and just entered the institutional phase).

It could be the "First Selloff." It could also be closer to the "Take-off" phase.

I know some others around here think we're on the cusp of a mania phase like 2017, but the weekly and monthly price charts look and feel more like Q1 or early Q2 2016. A bull market, yes, but a bubble? No.

Possibilities are either there would be a following uprise movement in its price or a deeper market price dump. Possibility is simply not equivalent to assurance. Therefore, market analysis of what to be done, is needed at times of such.

[Harlot]

If we consider our ATH as the point of new paradigm in 2017 I think we are still at the point of the market cycle trying to reach that. Remember that during that time we only have that price point only for a few moments rather than really hang in there as compared to the price hovering around 10,000-11,000$. So for me we are still at the stage where Bitcoin is attempting to pursue a new ATH or at least near it to say that we are on a new market cycle now. Because with the price going up and all but without any volume supporting the price movement I doubt we are over a new market cycle.

[BrewMaster]

Hm, it seems, the price will going down for more because the price now reach $9,900 and still going down.

you shouldn't just look at the current price but at the trend. for example in this case price is not "still going down". the dropped stopped days ago. it is now being dumped to $9900 and immediately bought back jumping back to above $10k ($10200 now) and since there are no more weak hands left there is no panic sell to push it lower. so either whales have to dump more or stop mini dumps for the price to go back up.

[jackg]

After all the years and the experience i do have on this market then its quite really hard to follow up these kind of patterns yet we dont even know if we are on that first sell-off. Where we do base?

Im not saying that these movements or patterns are irrelevant but these things actually confuses me yet anytime you do look at this then you would really presume out on where we at already

I think they're often more what you see/experience after a bull run, at the moment they may not be relevant to some but it's something to keep an eye to get an idea of how "the crowd" reacts.

I could be wrong, of course. Because I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin breaks the correlation trend sometime soon. Wouldn't be betting on it though.

II thought it was because both have seen aggressive moves recently. I'm hoping it doesn't remain a thing - especially if it only follows American markets as they could be slowing down soon in growth...

no, i think we are actually in the "despair" phase instead and the next phase which would be repetition of this whole thing from the start (take off) has not started yet.

I think I'm expecting $20-24k to be the closing mean of the whole movement (the price we settle back to whenever we see the next 2015/(2018 - with the $3k prices for a long time).

We did see a large rise and I do recall thinking there'd be a sell off after the really weird pattern we had forming.

It's an iterative process so the first sell off and major sell off phase are extremely similar and it could be either.

What, I was thinking the same thing, $ 6,000-8,000, will most likely repeat itself.

It has been one week since I withdrew all my investment assets in Bitcoin, my analysis is correct Bitcoin dropped to the level: $ 9600, and so on.

@jackg, is it possible that something could happen as you say, is this a good sign.

I'd suggest maintaining a hodl position or having some way of quikcly buying back in if we see something very bullisjh and then a capitulation.

A breakthrough of $10450 would have made $9700 a lot more likely from my analysis, a drop to 9600 and further is possible but I'm not sure how likely it is - we could certainly overcorrect past the 9700 and if we do that and have a slow(ish) take off - that doesn't cause a gap in other markets, I'd say it's a pretty healthy movement.

Because with the price going up and all but without any volume supporting the price movement I doubt we are over a new market cycle.

You can have smaller cycles incide bigger cycles though?

[justdimin]

Where did this picture come from buddy? I mean everyone keeps showing this all the time whenever there is a big increase and follow up drop.

Let's assume that this is actually true, where the hell is 2017 huge gain? If that is the peak, where the hell is the 2019 huge 3x almost 4x increase? If that is there where the hell is this year's $3.6k drop to $12k+ increase? Are you even aware how little you guys are putting faith into crypto?

We are talking about something much much bigger than just a picture, we are dealing with something that will make us a ton of money and time to time it will go down, that is fine, there is no problem with that.

Obviously it is not the end of the day right now, sure we went down but we always go down and up, I can guarantee you that eventually price will go up, but after that it will go down again and up again and continue that way.

[jackg]

Where did this picture come from buddy? I mean everyone keeps showing this all the time whenever there is a big increase and follow up drop.

It's just phases of a bubble? And a bubble is just a sudden increase in price that eventually bursts and resettles towards the mean.

Let's assume that this is actually true, where the hell is 2017 huge gain? If that is the peak, where the hell is the 2019 huge 3x almost 4x increase? If that is there where the hell is this year's $3.6k drop to $12k+ increase? Are you even aware how little you guys are putting faith into crypto?

The phase is recursive, the graph repeats itself over and over. It can be used to represent anything, the S&P and the ftse don't just go up - they drop every so often too.

We are talking about something much much bigger than just a picture, we are dealing with something that will make us a ton of money and time to time it will go down, that is fine, there is no problem with that.

I mean my point, if you'd look at the chart, is that now might be a good time to look at accumulating some funds if you've been holding just cash so far - for people waiting for dips. A 10-20% of potential investment entry wouldn't be a bad idea around now?


Nothing rises linearly and continuously, it's the whole principal of some technical analysis: such as Eliott waves.

[exstasie]

Hm, it seems, the price will going down for more because the price now reach $9,900 and still going down.

you shouldn't just look at the current price but at the trend. for example in this case price is not "still going down". the dropped stopped days ago. it is now being dumped to $9900 and immediately bought back jumping back to above $10k ($10200 now) and since there are no more weak hands left there is no panic sell to push it lower. so either whales have to dump more or stop mini dumps for the price to go back up.

To be fair, it looks an awful lot like a bear pennant or bear flag:





These are usually continuation patterns. Until I see some actual signs of reversal, my bias is still bearish.

[philipma1957]

buy the dips!

Lets see some stones here.

 There are no bears. Only bulls.

[YOSHIE]

I'd suggest maintaining a hodl position or having some way of quikcly buying back in if we see something very bullisjh and then a capitulation.

I'm a little confused at the moment, if I look at the current unstable market movement, it's been almost a week.

Thank you, @jackg for the information, maybe I will hold on for Bitcoin now for the next few days.
I will follow the updates here on the development of Bitcoin in the next few days, it seems that I will follow your instructions this time in a healthy manner.

It seems that I am not in a hurry to buy back, what might be a good move to wait a little longer $6000 or $8000, is my belief healthy.

[exstasie]

buy the dips!

Lets see some stones here.

There are no bears. Only bulls.

So true.

The old hands get it: Bitcoin bears are really just bulls who want to buy lower.

I've still got cash on the sidelines myself, waiting to buy another round of panic. I'd love to shake out some more late bulls and see that $9,600 weekly CME gap filled.

[jackg]

I'm a little confused at the moment, if I look at the current unstable market movement, it's been almost a week.

Thank you, @jackg for the information, maybe I will hold on for Bitcoin now for the next few days.
I will follow the updates here on the development of Bitcoin in the next few days, it seems that I will follow your instructions this time in a healthy manner.

It seems that I am not in a hurry to buy back, what might be a good move to wait a little longer $6000 or $8000, is my belief healthy.

I see this current descending triangle (as I'd name it, extasie called it a bear penant as both are quite similar) but either way we should break down to 9000 in the next move coming (if we don't cross 10.6k before a drop below around 9700 I think this comes even more likely).

While I don't think my analysis isn't too innacurate, I don't trade it with much compared to the size of my hold position just in case.

So true.

The old hands get it: Bitcoin bears are really just bulls who want to buy lower.

I've still got cash on the sidelines myself, waiting to buy another round of panic. I'd love to shake out some more late bulls and see that $9,600 weekly CME gap filled.

I dunno I'm sure there are people loading up the charts every so often hoping bitcoin fails because they lost their wallet or missed $150 and are just hoping they're proven right...

That being said, there sure are those optimistically buying all the dips and doing fairly well from it but in this case, we all switch from being bears to being bulls at some point.

I'm just hoping we don't end up with a fake out before the gap fill but we got close to it last night.

[STT]

The best version of this sentiment graph shows or emphasizes how it runs in a loop maybe a gif would be appropriate, people get carried away when its  repeated positive and too gloomy when its negative.   2018 end was too gloomy and events like March sell are forgivable for being unforeseen and not predictable.  I think we return to the mean because its a really easy guess to say that as its the most likely thing to happen.   For me the mean would be the 200 day average as its the most observable regular but still bullish indicator.   Others might be more harsh and assume we'll always go back to 200 week or the really hard sells, I'm never that certain and I think 200 day is probably good enough to be talking about dips and buying in without catching a uptrend exactly.  
   i think we've lost the uptrend since March and any time thats observable then we pullback a bit.   In Feb. we lost a trend, I think it even gained a new high after doing that but obviously we did get our sell and a couple expected that.   I'm mostly just noting when BTC steps off the escalator many people will depart the easy ride and so price will go down a bit.  Losing 10500 as support just now is a bit of a reset, so we did hold below that for the moment and see if we hold below for a whole monthly bar then it counts more then just a falter.    Moving into winter just seems to be a time we have a harder time to rise, not sure why and not exactly logical to say