Bitcoin Forum

I see there is a strong correlation between SPY and Bitcoin prices.  BTC has a higher beta, however.  Whenever SPY tanks, BTC tanks twiiiiiice as hard, (as it was the first time, I said good byeeee) 
In March, BTC dropped from $10k to $5k.      I am calling for another BitCoin wipeout when the market crashes. 

For the record, bitcoin drop to as low as $3k in March, wiping out more than 50%, so yes it is technically a crash. But it has recovered nicely, even getting as high as $12400, however the price is not sustainable. And recently we have around 15% crash going into $10k. But remember this crashes, like in March was due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and we could say the oil wars.

However, as I have mentioned, even if bitcoin crashes, if had recovered to more than x3, so it crash twice as hard, but rebounded while traditional markets is still on the recovery and majority of them are underperforming.

Havent you tired on hearing out these kind of views or sentiments? Like Bitcoin is dead, Bitcoin wont recover from crash, Bitcoin wont reach its ATH and more.

Im not really fan on tagging other events when it comes to price movements but somehow they might or might not have some correlation totally yet this market is always been an unpredictable thing.

I dont know on where OP do get about that crash twice as hard and if we do look back then he would realized on how many times did Bitcoin crashed its price and then eventually make a comeback or recovery.  :D

Theres a base line to BTC price progression and theres speculation that adds spikes up and down.     The easiest way to stort the stable from the more erratic speculation and hype is by time frames.   1hr or 4hr bars are trading movements, the daily and weekly bars are more reliable and steady.    I'm looking for us to pullback so long as we keep closing weekly bars below 10,500 which has been something of a ceiling.   It cant be called weak but for now we are in a process of consolidation over prior gains which is a normal kind of cycle.   BTC definetly has a higher beta as do tons of companies, commodities and lots of assets.    Crypto is still new so its fair to expect volatility and growth continues and is required.

The S&P and the dax both recovered pretty fast though?

They were back to aths afaik when bitcoin reached 12k. And both have taken a recent hit.

---

The stock market should take a slow bleed imo after a crash and bitcoin should take a slow recovery if it crashes - that's what I'm expecting anyway.

At first, I am also thinking this, that there are correlation with some stocks like SPY with Bitcoin.
When coronavirus started to spread all over the world last March, yes a huge dump in stock market and Bitcoin too.
But what is the different with Bitcoin last time was, the bounce back of Bitcoin is fast compare to some stocks.

Not trying to be the odd guy here or acting unreasonable but I think I'll be vouching for another bitcoin correction not minding how dip it goes. I was taken unprepared with the previous that occurred days back, wiping my portfolio approximately -50% since I had early increase my altcoins holdings with hopes to trade them within the weeks in acquiring more bitcoin. I got screwed big time. In regards to your observation, the corrections we think we're observing is just as a result of the impact of the pandemic in the global economy and nothing more.

Every market whether, assets, stock or currency got hit in March and not just that you of the cryptocurrencies market so that won't be an accurate comparison. That same fate repeat itself doesn't justified that too until everything returns back to normal.

Wipeout? do you think that it's going to liquidate and just get off of the market with $190B total market cap? Although the connection and correlation is puzzling me as well but most of the times, they're not correlated.
Saying that there will be a wipe out, it is out of context and term isn't the right one. There will be a correction yes, it could be a hard and quick dump but I'm not looking forward to it.

The correlation between the two is about to approach an all-time high (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/correlation-between-bitcoin-p500-nears-191031399.html), so it wouldn't surprise me if Bitcoin followed suit after a crash. I'm not sure about it being hit twice as hard though, considering it recovered way faster when COVID first hit.

Either way, I don't think it's going to be a cause of concern since there aren't really any solid indicators that it'll stay down when it falls. All it's going to be is another fire sale, really.

You can read the other news about what will happen with bitcoin, but you don't have to believe it before you research yourself because that news is not always right, or it's just coincidence happening to bitcoin. But if somehow, after you explore, you found out that it has a connection between what is happening with bitcoin and that news, you can know what you need to do.

I believe that if bitcoin price crashes, and perhaps it is almost the same as what the stock market or other market happens, bitcoin price will bounce up, and the price will increase more than the last high price. We already saw bitcoin price reached $3k a few months ago, but the price can touch $12k as the new ATH this year. And although bitcoin price now back to $10k, the price will be increased again, and the chance for bitcoin price to touch the new ATH will wide open.

that is why you and some small percentage of the traders panic sold their bitcoin recently. this small group saw the stock market crash and were filled with dread so they sold their bitcoins. but you still belong to a very small group of people who think this way because as we can clearly see the stock market has been crashing all this time and has not stopped and meanwhile bitcoin drop was a very short amount in a very short time frame which was about 12 hours of September 2 (that is about 9 days ago).

so no, not only there isn't any correlation between bitcoin and any other market but also there is nothing bearish about bitcoin market.

Bitcoin crashing twice is always an opportunity to buy low and I see the two face of the market state as an opportunity and not a condition. Many traders are losing money because of the over holding and I think it is better we take what ever gain we have made from this latest bull run.

I'm also don't see any correlation, but hey the price has rebounded since the pandemic and the rest of other market as well. And bitcoin market has lots of fluctuations recently but we keep our noses above that line of support of five digits so we won't crash as the OP has predicted. All indication says that regardless of direct or indirect correlation with S&P, bitcoin will have it's own movement.

But it will also recover 3 times as fast. That is what markets do. they crash they recover. They have bear or bull trends. If you hold and not trade you end up with exactly the same number of coins no matter what happens.

It is such a funny topic that we would never know until it happens, sometimes they do the same thing and sometimes they do the opposite of each other but people here will never stop saying that one thing is guaranteed, nothing is guaranteed in the crypto world, you will never know what it will do, sometimes you will be right and sometimes you will be wrong.

I have seen plenty of topics saying that "when market crashes bitcoin will go up" as well, I have seen them around here, check few pages and you will find that topic too. Do not really hold your breath about what stock market will do or what crypto will respond to it, that is not something we can actually assume and could never really know what will happen. Just focus on crypto and your own investments and you will be better off.

Sure, but that March crash (~63% for BTC, ~36% for the S&P 500) hurt quite a bit, and lots of people were fooled into selling or shorting it, only to be trapped. A classic shakeout.


That only reinforces the OP's point I guess. BTC just dumped 21% while the S&P 500 dumped 8%. If the bottom falls out from stocks, and I think failing below the 50DMA and lower daily BB would do it, (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg55171155#msg55171155) things are going to get very ugly for BTC......and fast.

Wasn't it all due to Coronavirus and its effects? Wasn't there a reason for the dump? How can people be 'fooled' then? It was all intentionally done by investors to remove their fiat out of stocks as they knew that these markets were going to get a hard hit and they also played a part in this by equally dumping their stocks and shares for money as they knew they will need hard cash instead of these stocks to survive the situation after the pandemic.


Almost same is the case with BTC and if it falls below a key level of $10k and reaches down to its old support near $9350, we will head towards $7k-$7.5k and we may also see a long dip.

Well sure, I only meant the crash induced people to sell. Then they got bear trapped.

However, now that you mention it, the way it all went down was pretty messed up. Retail investors had the wool pulled over their eyes. They were told of the Great Depression unemployment levels and incoming waves of bankruptcies and 2008-like financial collapses that were coming.

Then the Fed swooped in and bailed out the entire corporate bond market and promised Wall Street they had an "infinite" amount of cash to print. So banks and other large institutions bought into the panic (can't blame them because if they hadn't, the Fed literally would have started buying stocks themselves) and all the "rational" investors who sold became trapped.

In a free market, the stock market would have totally collapsed like 1929. And if that happened, all the rational sellers wouldn't have been trapped. But this isn't a free market, and no one ever knows when the Fed is going to act or how many trillions of dollars they are going to pump into the market when they do.

Yes they are correlated and if SPX starts to crash like it did before back in March then it will also bring down cryptos. However the crash won't be as before, the reason why it was a hard crash down to $3K was due to lack of liquidity.

I was trading that day and it was scary to watch but basically there was no bids on Bitmex and there was maybe 1 billion worth of long liquidators. And the market kept going lower and lower and lower. And if it wasn't for Bitmex going down that moment we might of hit $0 eventually especially on the leveraged and futures exchanges.

So while it's possible we might crash it won't be as bad as it was back in March. We know what covid is and we learned to live with it by wearing masks. Back then there was tons of uncertainty.

I get that it's all Fed and the Trump Gov who played a major role in the plunge of their markets and still, injected more money for a buyback lookalike strategy and banged all those rational investors you told me about. But BTC market is very small yet, compared to these gigantic marketcap holding stocks. Why does it follow their crash when BTC is all that looks like being favored by investors but still gets dumped when S&P crashes? Or was it this time when the pandemic took place?

BTC fell for the same reasons: fear of economic collapse and the sudden need for dollar liquidity. Who needs stocks or BTC when you're losing your job and worried about putting food on the table.....and isn't it all supposed to go to hell anyway?

The Bitcoin market being small (AKA thin or illiquid) just means it dumps much harder in a crash because there aren't many dollars, euros, etc. on the available buy side. And vice versa; it also pumps harder in a bull market.

And then BTC pumped to $12K for the same reason the stock market rose back to ATHs. There was so much fiat money pumped into the market, all looking for assets to buy, not to mention all the bears who were trapped and had to buy back higher.

So you mean that the hell that we are waiting again for, will be seen again? And if it is seen, should it be seen as an opportunity to buy low or shall we just hold and shouldn't buy even if BTC takes a dip and enters $6xxx area?

BTC falls because the stock market can be stopped. Every time there's a crash that exceeds certain number like 5% a day they shut down the exchange and not allow any more selling.

I don't think that if stocks crash again Bitcoin will followas deep down as it did in March but a stock market crash that takes Bitcoin down to 8000 is possible, even likely. If it happens it will be this Autumn. All we can do is watch it enfold.

Depends from how you tryst your assets, the volatility really hurts but like what you have said, when you hold
your coin as it is, same amount will be depends from the market value, the bounced back will take place and
it will bring you good profits once the bull show up strong.

This correlation isn't fundamental, there's no deep tie between Bitcoin and stock market, it's just that all markets get affected by covid/quarantine/recession, so sooner or later this correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will end. I totally can see how some bears will get rekt with their shorts when Bitcoin won't drop as hard as they expect. It might not happen soon, but it will totally happen sometime in the future.

So true.

If the market crash I don't think it is that hard on Bitcoin but all I know is that it is also affected and if it does, I don't think people would worry as most of them would take this as an opportunity to reinvest. Bitcoin may fall hard in certain times but time would come when it would just go back to its good price and might go to surprising ones.

More predictions.
It is probable. No one knows how the market will react to different events that will happen.
Yes, it can dump as far as it can. But do you really know when? That's the problem.

You sell now and you might regret it.
You buy now and you might also regret it if a sudden dump happens again.
It's a good thing. Being unpredictable is what gives a lot of excitement.  ;D

Bitcoin crashes n we sell in loss and when bitcoin reaches again high, we buy at high prices. Who is gaining profit from all these big movement of bitcoin up and down. The whales are making money and the temporary short term holders are losing money.

Depends on your exist strategy. With Bitcoin the most simple is to buy more all the time until old ATH. So You buy all the time from mid 2018. Whenever you have spare money you buy. Once price will reach $20k you stop buying. When price will go over $50 and over $100 you spend. You buy things that you will need in upcoming years. Car. Furniture. Whatever. This is the best Bitcoin exit strategy you can have.  But there are more. You can whenever price of Bitcoin doubles sell 10%. This is more traders exit strategy. Perfect for some alts. Specially the ICO ones. I wish I would use it more often. So you never miss moon and you never totally lose your investment.

Keep one thing in mind: the entire price history of BTC has taken place in the context of a mega bullish stock market and strongly growing economies. Stocks and BTC have broadly risen together since Bitcoin's inception. That should come as no surprise since they are both risk assets, and they both benefit from easy credit and QE and other bubble-inducing monetary policy. Is it really so surprising they would fall together in a stock bear market or recession?

The most likely scenario is that the correlation will continue, in both directions. The OP is right, BTC will crash twice as hard, but it will also pump twice as hard (probably more actually) in the other direction.

Would like to end this drama. Why not pushing it to crash and making FUD to newcomers instead of keeping the market full of positive and it really sounds more encouraging to read.

Crash, crash...it all has to come through if we always think about it and it crashing our faith as well. For a decade that Bitcoin had existed, we fall hard so many times but we are still able to stand and keep stronger. If we crashed again, just ignored it because soon it rises back, time to accumulate more?

The issue presently is this and I am a little worried also. We all know that crypto markets are correlated with stocks. If stocks go down...crypto will follow. These are risk-on type of assets.

One reason why the stock market is making new highs is because many took advantage of stimulus and government subsidies and invested in the stock market. Hence why TSLA and APPL and even HTZ have these unbelievable prices at times. Whats worse is the market is highly leveraged due to call options. Most of this is by retail traders. They are all greedy and tell their friends and family and get even more money poured into the market.

Question is... what will happen when the rug gets pulled? Can the fed save the stock market? Perhaps. However greed will quickly turn into fear and we might get those circuit breaker type of days again.

There is a certain logic in such reasoning and it is possible that it will be so, bitcoin is more volatile and it can fall much stronger than traditional assets during a crisis.
But I see that the governments of all countries are pursuing a total monetary policy and do not allow assets to show their real price - the market is flooded with money at any hint of a fall. In such conditions, an asset like bitcoin may, on the contrary, grow.

Right now people are guessing everything they can throw at crypto prices, will go down, will go up, will go on like this, everything they can think of.

Just like that's not enough, they have started to not only trying to predict the future but also started to predict what would happen if something happened to something else, which is totally null point because lets be honest I do not care about what happens to stock market, if it impacts crypto that is the only thing I will care, as long as crypto goes up and stays strong I couldn't care less about nasdaq going down the garbage hole. I am not american and american companies deserve even worse and if USA goes down in economy that means we are going to be stronger as well.

I believe that today there is no need to raise panic and discuss a possible fall in the cryptocurrency market. We have not yet seen the real results of the past halving, which should appear before the end of this year, and especially on a large scale, necessarily a year after the event. In addition, due to the economic crisis, it is cryptocurrencies that are very popular assets. Therefore, do not expect the market to fall in the near future.

Pretty obvious as gambling is a big part of the market. In some cases there a bigger number of sellers than buyers, eventually bitcoin market manipulated by whales. Its a game of Stacking Sats and its more troublesome than we might suspect. So, Rich people get more rich and poor ones are still same poor.

But there is no certain reasons for Bitcoin to crash now as you are saying,maybe we can see the dump proportionally or less but its not going to crash hard since we already witnessed the fastest recovery of crypto market when the whole economy of the world crashed during pandemic.

Looking at the market and looking at crypto, it crashed around the same amount and crypto even recovered faster but they both recovered eventually and then they are both doing alright right now.

So, actually we had a year where we could check what happens to stock markets and what happens to crypto, they both reacted almost the same, I am not saying one will go up while other down, I am not saying they will do anything different, all I am saying is with all the information we can gather so far in history of crypto, we could easily say that stock market and crypto market basically moves very closely. Obviously not during regular days, sometimes stocks go up a lot while crypto stays, or maybe crypto goes up a lot while stocks stay same, what I am telling is only acceptable during major moments like this pandemic situation.

There's always a reason why this happens and a temporary fall is not that bad in the market since it gives a chance to the traders to buyback after they have traded their crypto currencies for the profit. Newbies tend to panic because they haven't seen how the market works during bullish or bearish trends. Since the halving of Bitcoin happened this May–everyone is expecting a bull run either this coming December or next year.

But you must take into account that in March there was no reason for the crash either. Bitcoin is an anti-crisis asset, so the March events should have happened exactly the opposite. But you yourself saw how it all happened. Therefore, I believe that almost at any moment anything can happen, a big rise and a big fall. Ordinary people cannot guess this, maybe whales have more awareness/capabilities, but they are also not unlimited.

Covid19 was the reason for the market crash. Everything went down (even gold) if I remember this one correctly. Didn't it happen on the same day or the day after WHO made the official pandemic announcement? If that wasn't enough to crash every financial market there is, then I don't know what is.

Nuclear maybe...

Now the first shock is gone, there is no guarantees that we'll be having a slow recovery. A slow death spiral is still in the realm of possibilities if these newly founded vaccines don't work effectively. Even if they work... it will take years before everything goes back to normal.

It will not fall in price too much like it was before Pandemic or after its ATH, BTC is being used by many traders now as well many new investors were shifting here in cryptocurrency to do trading, alts prices were affected by BTC so when it decreases in value alts were affected too, but since there are still some hype in some projects that gets also attention for BTC, what is only happening in BTC price now is some correction from continuous increase of price last month but not because of crash as it already recovered from it when many countries lifted the quarantines.

Lets hope for vaccine for this year to be finalized and would be available for production.It might be too fast but at least we are seeing some progress that we might able to make it out and everyone do really hope for
everything goes back to normal.We cant deny that this pandemic is really the major factor that do really affect economies around the world and we cant deny nor neglect that this one do affect majority of the
market including crypto but to see o check it out back on how the price behave on these timeframe then it isnt really that much bad as we all know.

It didnt dropped to the floor but instead it do make some recovery and able to pull off that 12k price level and now we are still hanging or playing around 5 digit price levels which i can say it isnt really that bad.

Market price is still holding on and other markets as well is trying to recover.Cure might not still be present but we know we are already heading there.For the issue or talks about crashing twice as hard then
so be it, some might panic but there are some who would wait for that buying opportunity.

Why do people think this? Bitcoin is a risk asset. In a panic-driven liquidity crisis, it crashed exactly like it was supposed to.

Maybe in a hundred years, Bitcoin will be reliable enough where it'll just dump 10-15% (like gold did) in a situation like that. But if even gold dumped in March, why would you expect Bitcoin to do the opposite?

So many the same post i read regarding on crash or something and I don't know if they are afraid for something worse to be happen or they are just riding the situation where the market is slightly dumping to buy and have a good entry. But I'm wondering if the lift out of lock down really help the bitcoins to pump since i think that this is the natural phenomena and I don't erase the fact that people still in hype since they think about something good to happen in the year of halving.

whats SPY , a non crypto asset  ? non crypto asset are i think not responsible for the markets of cryptos but if that SPY is also a crypto then btc should be the one that dictates its price not SPY . you sounded like a bad guy here because all you ever wanted for btc is to crashed it , do you have an agenda after that happens but sorry because btc supporters wont let that happen anymore .

you mean to say when btc crash the market will crash as well but the intensity of the crash will depend on how hard or soft btc crash is

There are many subtle points here. To say that all assets fell would be wrong. Some asset fell strongly, some asset fell less strongly, which means that one of the assets rose relative to the other, right? And if we look at two assets: the dollar and bitcoin, then I think most people expected that during the crisis, bitcoin would perform better than the dollar.
After that fall, bitcoin won back the lost positions, but there is no further growth yet. I hope that in the future the situation will become more certain and we will not see such inconsistencies again.

While bitcoin price start dropping slowly people like you get panic and start selling largely. As a result bitcoin price drop significantly. And you are talking about this. It's a short term process. In the long run btc price always stay ahead. Invest in btc for long term and don't get panic. You will have a successful journey with that.

The idea of bitcoin not being a crisis affected one comes from wall street, not pandemic.
For example, if wall street goes down because it is wall street and they did something wrong and that is the only reason, that is understandable, that could mean they could fall and nothing more, bitcoin could stay high or even go higher because it should not be affected by wall street, it is not something that affects the whole world, only the people who are there and work with them and that is it, aka 2008 crisis for example.

However this wasn't like that, this was literally a catastrophic pandemic that killed hundreds of thousands of people and affected hundreds of millions, maybe billions of people's lives, obviously bitcoin is not against that, it was normal that it went down.

Interesting point of view, I have to think about it. It seems to me that the situation with the virus has now returned to normal (at least there is no more disaster) and we will be able to see how bitcoin will behave further. The fact that in the economy the crisis will worsen is obvious to me.

I wouldn't be too concern if bitcoin will drop, besides it would just bounce back and that dump is just giving us "AGAIN" and opportunity to buy. Honestly, I love to see people panic as that makes me think making money is easy in crypto, I always bet that bitcoin will rise after it dump and I was right all the time so I wouldn't change my strategy.

What if it will hard twice hard, are you gonna panic? What would you do?

When Bitcoin crashes, what do you expect to happen to a low cap shitcoin? It will consistently crash harder than BTC. The same exact principle applies here.

Everything else equal, BTC will always crash harder than stock indices or gold, which are much more liquid markets, and which have much thicker bid sides.

It's not about fundamentals. It's not about "Bitcoin was made for this situation" or any nonsense like that. It's all about liquidity. In a liquidity crisis and flight to cash, which markets have the liquidity to absorb a big dump? That is what matters.

I completely disagree.

I think it is very tempting to understand Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies in terms of the Beta statistic.  Beta the measure of relationship of a security based off past valuations can be valuable in setting up a portfolio.  Bitcoin based off of Gold with deflationary attributes would lead an investor to think it has a negative Beta.  Gold has traditionally has a negative Beta.  There is a definite desire in the Crypto space for Bitcoin to have a negative Beta as well.   Generally, securities with negative Beta are more desired and have higher valuations than similar securities with positive Beta.   That said when you look at the valuations of Bitcoin, the Market and Gold it is extremely difficult to understand the relationship.

Part of the reasoning for that is the extreme growth of Bitcoin between 2014 and 2017.  A growth security can certainly be affected by the market but something growing at the level of Bitcoin it is obvious there are other and much larger factors at play.

Here is a picture from Bittmex that illustrates the lack of a relationship during this period.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=6PVd%2fzC7&id=E69A2666F6AC7D1F1926473734A82A58CAC160BF&thid=OIP.6PVd_zC7K7X6Z6WDsoLmcAHaEd&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fblog.bitmex.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2018%2f03%2frolling.png&exph=543&expw=902&q=beta+bitcoin+to+S%26P+500&simid=608031240335721443&ck=1493AE62779D20C45B7620A888675674&selectedIndex=12&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0

Cryptocurrencies can pick the attributes of a Technology growth stock, Gold, a high risk company and others.
These attributes can change quickly.   Thus if Bitcoin has acts as a high Beta stock for the past year, it could easily be treated more like Gold tomorrow and visversa. 

The ultimate problem with Beta and with many portfolio statistics is that they use prices of assets on a historical basis to derive what is supposed to be the future relationship.  Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are simply too new in my opinion for a meaningful relationship to be established.

Gold moves with a stride or a time scale of over a decade, the time it takes to prospect, establish and begin to extract a gold mine.  SP500 will relate to the business cycle of 6 years and taxable accounts, tax relief etc. but Bitcoin as a very new technology and alternate currency system tied not nationally but globally cross border should not exactly share any of these time frames.   The reason we do fluctuate with SP500 or other prices is the assets are traded on the same accounts with the same margin account calls, if main market sells off it requires capital backing /margin calls and the sale of BTC or reduction in held positions will occur to fund that contraction.   Even gold sells in this way shorter term afaik.     We cant avoid that when so many new dollars are in circulation, we rose partly because everything gained from new dollar flow and so we will contract but the fundamentals the long term rise of BTC is not tied to dollar or any of these other time frames.  
  Its always possible we lose alot of the price, the very highest prices are white water, froth that goes back and forth but its so regular that occurs Im not sure I'd call it a crash.    BTC does not move in isolation, I'd totally agree with that but it is still unique underneath though its not always apparent.

It's all been unpredictable and we are not yet sure but seeing on the current market flows, definitely, crashes isn't a thing to look by.
Perhaps, many speculations seem right that after breaking the $12k resistance dumps will follow next and that is what we have today. But I can't think that it will more down hard below $9k, the support level still strong and it is pretty sure we can make some recoveries for awhile.

Gold is not something you need a lot of to make money though, I know gold companies who are happy about finding few kilograms of gold somewhere, they just do that because they believe there is gold to be mined and they need to do it because the other option is... let the gold be there?

So, when a gold mine is found, it is a HUUUUGE income, literally billions in income as well, so compared to bitcoin it is boring most of the time but super exciting suddenly whereas bitcoin is not super exciting but not boring it is something in between them most of the time as well. I really don't know what could be better gold mining or bitcoin mining but since I am more of a tech person over business person, I would easily pick crypto mining because it would be also quite entertaining as well.

You couldn't say it any better, having spent some time in the space, I have observed all that matters is timing and patience. If you do not have the patience to hold unto your bitcoin when the market is crashing then you should enlightening yourself into getting a perfect timing in buying the dip. For every crash the market will surely recover, some might take more time than others but the fact is the market will surely recover.

For those that bought the 2017 peak, what they need is patience as the market is still bullish, ignoring the small correction that comes every now and then is the only way to stay focused. Don't get tempted into wanting to outsmart the market asbthe whales are patiently waiting for victim to take advantage of.

I understand the logic of your reasoning. But why do you think that the liquidity of an asset so strongly affects the degree of its depreciation during a crisis? A unique diamond/painting or something like that has little liquidity (they are difficult to sell) even when the economy is growing, but this does not mean that during a crisis they lose their value. As it seems to me, on the contrary, they grow in price as they guarantee the safety of at least part of the capital invested in them. Why should it be different with bitcoin?

Who told you that gold is for making money? the main purpose of gold is to store wealth, though it is volatile enough to make some gains.

huh I mean who would not be happy if they found a kilo of gold? lol they were created to mine gold and have gold, why would they let gold be beneath the ground, we should value gold with our fantasy money HAHA

You find bitcoin boring because you are not finding gold unlike them, but we already have seen a million moment from bitcoin which made it be compared to gold these days.

I believe that market will be fine for a while, I do not care if Trump wins or Biden wins, eventually market will readjust and I know that pandemic happened and it killed many economies in the world but right now I do not think that will continue forever, it will probably recover adn that means "next crash" for market will not be soon, it will take years probably over a decade to happen.

This is why I believe right now is perfect time to invest into both bitcoin (or crypto in general) and also investing into stock market as well, for the next 10 years you are going to make a profit from both of them. I believe by the time 2030 comes bitcoin will be over 50k easily (probably closer to 100k) and also we are going to see stock markets be 5x of what they are right now as well.

You're right that all the important events and even pandemic effects will not last forever and eventually market will recover. The financial market includes the fiat, stocks, gold and bitcoin and all of them will recover soon. I must say that now is the time for the  bounce back and recovery of the market.

Basically everything is only temporary, even though the market falls many times but still, the collapse of the crypto market will not make bitcoin lose its value because the price in the cryptocurrency market will continue to increase and decrease every time. Any issues and problems that occur in this world, at least directly or not will affect the price in any market that exists so that way, bitcoin will still recover even if it gets repeated drops and this will be fine. Nothing to worry about either.

If that so, then let SPY dried off and see what it happens to BTC price. Could be that important and sees if that is correlated to it because almost no one we'd like to believe it. Reason why? Bitcoin has free market flows, in fact, the stock market drops hard, the global economic decreases but we are about to make a good position away from it and making a good market rally. That is why I'd never thought that is likely to happen, it is negative as per see.

Because lack of liquidity means there are no bids to dump into. So in a flight to cash scenario like March where everyone is rushing to liquidate assets for cash, the price of illiquid assets crash that much harder.


Sure it does. An economic crisis may not change the price you paid or the value you put on a diamond or a painting, but it will make them harder to sell. So if you really want to sell during a crisis, you'll probably have to sell cheaper than you otherwise would have.

they are not comparable. unlike a diamond or a painting, bitcoin has a quite liquid market that is going to always be active and have a volume. even during a crisis ignoring what happens to the price, the volume will be there even if it drops. so even if someone wants to sell/buy bitcoin they still have liquid enough market to sell/buy in.
the only problem one might face is if they were trying to buy or sell very large amounts of bitcoin, and that's only assuming the volume drops. otherwise 99% of the other cases won't be affected.

To a degree. Liquidity exists on a spectrum. If somebody wants to buy or sell large cap stocks, or derivatives linked to stock indices, they have much more available liquidity to do so than with BTC. I believe that's one of the reasons BTC dumped harder than stocks back in March.

I wasn't saying Bitcoin and fine art have equal liquidity. I wasn't making that comparison at all. I was responding to someone who said an economic crisis shouldn't affect the value of diamonds or paintings.

People think that every fall is the end of bitcoin but actually this incident will not exist for now since as of these days bitcoin gather much attention interms of investment and usage, and those issues about price dump has just been ignored by majority since its already tested that whenever a dump cames there's a huge pump will follow and the only losers here are the people who always afraid to take their step to buy when opportunity is there.

neutral reaction for now will keep us safe because we will not react in shit news about this or that and sometimes being in silent is better than in the open.
stop speculating more and trust our coins that is best action now.
10 years from now?i think Bitcoin will be 6 digits,because we come 5 digits in 10 years so what more in the next same range?
anyway we are only speculating but with confidence because we trust bitcoin and this is waht we have to now,with this market up and down.

I believe that everything has its own explanation and therefore nothing to worry about your cryptocurrency capital. To date, a significant decrease in the price of cryptocurrency has occurred, possibly due to the fact that on Friday, the 25th, the Bitcoin options expire. Every last Friday of the month, you can see a slight decrease in prices due to these processes. But if people are storing Bitcoin for the long term, then these minor price fluctuations should not worry them.

Liquidity in diamond is higher as well, the difference between them is the fact that bitcoin is something everyone can buy and sell at one place whereas diamond is a thing you can buy around you, you are not going to buy a diamond ring from someone in another continent far away from you, but you can do that with crypto easily.

So, liquidity is a lot more in crypto compared to everything else you listed not because the total numbers are bigger, total numbers are lower in btc, but you can do all the other things in places you know and can go to whereas in bitcoin you can do it all around the world, that is the big huge difference between them. Obviously it is not going to be so easy for everyone to trade bitcoin neither, but it is just easier compared to stocks or derivatives or diamonds and what not.

What I mean to say by this, is that it is difficult to predict what will happen to Bitcoin prices in the event of a drop in the market and everyone should be skeptical of novice trading in advice in this area claiming a more proven relationship.

BTC did follow stocks and main markets today but also in any case I had guessed it might be go down to complete its pattern in something along these lines , I think it fits a test of the upper pattern after previously falling below the 50 day average it was about a stall speed to pull back or thats how I was viewing it.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/Ah3EP.png

Now we have the lower test again and as seen its previously held the line here and risen after that big red bar downwards.   So we are repeating action previously done and then the speculation is do we simply repeat or with some extra push downwards or hold the line round about here.   I dont think its purely external that effects us, theres a point it tips further and thats the place to bet on momentum and larger bars occurring as support breaks.

For that trust I believed there's a good future for bitcoin, as well the other cryptocurrency that has a consistent market volume. Don't get intimidated if bitcoin crashes badly, eventually it will recover nicely in perfect timing. Meanwhile, lets just be calm and easy because we need to focus on our daily living without being stressed. Fluctuations is always a part of bitcoin's milestone and even though it crashed frequently, it will bounce back successfully by the time demand increases.

If we will just see the prices of both the stock market (S&P) and Bitcoin, they really have a correlation between its price movement.
Although I agree that when stock market crashes Bitcoin will crash twice as hard, I also believe that when the recovery time comes Bitcoin will recover twice as much.

We saw it already last March when the pandemic has been announced by WHO. All of the markets are down, Stock markets and crypto market are down but if you will see how much they recover since at that time Bitcoin recovered near thrice as its previous price last March so yes Bitcoin will crash twice as hard when the stock market is down maybe but it will recover twice too.

Although the bitcoin price is still below $11k, the price now seems strong, and the green candle can show in the market. Maybe we will see a change this week, and hopefully, the price will have a chance to increase and break $11k. There is still a bitcoin price to start another rally this week, especially bitcoin price has been stable at the $10k level. I am sure that sooner or later, the price will have the time to start the rally, and before the price increase, we can buy more bitcoin to be ready for the next high price.

Unfortunately there is no connection that we could make with proof, obviously there are logical connections between them that you could make but on paper there is zero connections that we could show as a proof to people. Which means it could go up, go down, go up twice harder, go down twice harder and anything in between but the reality is we could not know this beforehand, we could assume it, we could make a common sense approach to it but in reality we are not going to make any change at all by just assuming what will happen.

This is why we should not move depending on the stock market, let them be whatever they want to be and let us work on ourselves, if we could ignore the stock market as a whole we could actually move up when it goes down or up without caring what it is doing.

I agree with you in general, but why am I forced to sell? If we are talking about investors, then it is unlikely that they bought bitcoin on credit. And they all know about economic cycles and the fact that after fiat money becomes strong, there will inevitably be a period when it becomes weak and asset prices soar. The only ones who will sell at any price are miners, but their influence (if we take the total capitalization of bitcoin) is not very large and is gradually decreasing.

Halt! the crash and may crash twice! because as of today Bitcoin is sprunt back up in an incredible feat the last price I saw if I am not mistaken it is on $10,400 USD now it get back up to an amazing $10,600 USD and I am thinking that it may lead to another hike up well Bitcoin in the recent pull up doesn't really get to the maximum peak it should reach so maybe this is the right time to hit that well in my opinion.

If that were true, asset prices would never drop.

Like you said, the market moves in cycles. At the end of a bullish cycle, this is what happens: profit taking (distribution) and selling because of anticipated lower prices. During trends, prices move in feedback cycles. Lower prices beget lower prices, as the pain of holding losing positions compounds and burnt investors capitulate. This is why downtrends often end with high volume capitulation events. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp

Even if you don't feel forced to sell, others will because of the pain of holding or the need to liquidate for cash (this is an economic crisis we're discussing after all), or because they think they can buy back lower. This all produces increased supply on the market, which pushes prices down.

This is true for highly liquid assets with huge capitalization such as oil, real estate, stocks, etc. It seems to me that niche/low-cap/unique markets react differently. Goods from these markets were initially bought for a long time, and most of the investors in these goods initially assume that the period before its sale may be 1-2 (or more) economic cycles. I have not heard that someone "urgently" sold a unique painting just to get into the cache (this happens in bankruptcies, but this is a different case).
I think bitcoin is close in characteristics to niche/low capitalization markets therefore, here we are unlikely to see a repetition of the stories of the stock market or the real estate market.

Bankruptcies happen for the exact same reason. It's only a matter when the assets are liquidated.

In broad strokes, these assets act exactly the same. This boils down to economic rationality. It doesn't matter if you invested in fine art or real estate. When the economy crashes and your business fails or you lose your job, you may need to liquidate assets to pay your mortgage or rent, bills, etc. This is the part of the underlying drive towards cash during liquidity crises.

This idea that people who invest in stocks or real estate need cash, but people who invest in low-cap or niche markets don'tdoesn't really pan out for me.


And yet Bitcoin crashed much harder than stocks or real estate this past March. Makes you wonder......

In a sense, you are right, but still, I believe that the bitcoin market is very far from a rational market due to low capitalization, the presence of large players (whales), etc. Obviously, this is far from a "theoretical" rational market where we must always see the effective / fair price of an asset.

So...
yee, that time everything went like this (by the way, the market recovered faster than the stock market), but maybe next time everything will turn out differently.