If market crashes, BTC will crash twice as hard.

[exstasie]

In a free market, the stock market would have totally collapsed like 1929. And if that happened, all the rational sellers wouldn't have been trapped. But this isn't a free market, and no one ever knows when the Fed is going to act or how many trillions of dollars they are going to pump into the market when they do.

I get that it's all Fed and the Trump Gov who played a major role in the plunge of their markets and still, injected more money for a buyback lookalike strategy and banged all those rational investors you told me about. But BTC market is very small yet, compared to these gigantic marketcap holding stocks. Why does it follow their crash when BTC is all that looks like being favored by investors but still gets dumped when S&P crashes? Or was it this time when the pandemic took place?

BTC fell for the same reasons: fear of economic collapse and the sudden need for dollar liquidity. Who needs stocks or BTC when you're losing your job and worried about putting food on the table.....and isn't it all supposed to go to hell anyway?

The Bitcoin market being small (AKA thin or illiquid) just means it dumps much harder in a crash because there aren't many dollars, euros, etc. on the available buy side. And vice versa; it also pumps harder in a bull market.

And then BTC pumped to $12K for the same reason the stock market rose back to ATHs. There was so much fiat money pumped into the market, all looking for assets to buy, not to mention all the bears who were trapped and had to buy back higher.

[2double0]

<<>>

And then BTC pumped to $12K for the same reason the stock market rose back to ATHs. There was so much fiat money pumped into the market, all looking for assets to buy, not to mention all the bears who were trapped and had to buy back higher.

So you mean that the hell that we are waiting again for, will be seen again? And if it is seen, should it be seen as an opportunity to buy low or shall we just hold and shouldn't buy even if BTC takes a dip and enters $6xxx area?

[pixie85]

BTC falls because the stock market can be stopped. Every time there's a crash that exceeds certain number like 5% a day they shut down the exchange and not allow any more selling.

I don't think that if stocks crash again Bitcoin will followas deep down as it did in March but a stock market crash that takes Bitcoin down to 8000 is possible, even likely. If it happens it will be this Autumn. All we can do is watch it enfold.

[matchi2011]

I see there is a strong correlation between SPY and Bitcoin prices.  BTC has a higher beta, however.  Whenever SPY tanks, BTC tanks twiiiiiice as hard, (as it was the first time, I said good byeeee) 
In March, BTC dropped from $10k to $5k.      I am calling for another BitCoin wipeout when the market crashes. 

But it will also recover 3 times as fast. That is what markets do. they crash they recover. They have bear or bull trends. If you hold and not trade you end up with exactly the same number of coins no matter what happens.

Depends from how you tryst your assets, the volatility really hurts but like what you have said, when you hold
your coin as it is, same amount will be depends from the market value, the bounced back will take place and
it will bring you good profits once the bull show up strong.

[hatshepsut93]

This correlation isn't fundamental, there's no deep tie between Bitcoin and stock market, it's just that all markets get affected by covid/quarantine/recession, so sooner or later this correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will end. I totally can see how some bears will get rekt with their shorts when Bitcoin won't drop as hard as they expect. It might not happen soon, but it will totally happen sometime in the future.

[Janation]

Bitcoin crashing twice is always an opportunity to buy low and I see the two face of the market state as an opportunity and not a condition. Many traders are losing money because of the over holding and I think it is better we take what ever gain we have made from this latest bull run.

So true.

If the market crash I don't think it is that hard on Bitcoin but all I know is that it is also affected and if it does, I don't think people would worry as most of them would take this as an opportunity to reinvest. Bitcoin may fall hard in certain times but time would come when it would just go back to its good price and might go to surprising ones.

[Reid]

More predictions.
It is probable. No one knows how the market will react to different events that will happen.
Yes, it can dump as far as it can. But do you really know when? That's the problem.

You sell now and you might regret it.
You buy now and you might also regret it if a sudden dump happens again.
It's a good thing. Being unpredictable is what gives a lot of excitement. 

[MFahad]

For the record, bitcoin drop to as low as $3k in March, wiping out more than 50%, so yes it is technically a crash. But it has recovered nicely, even getting as high as $12400, however the price is not sustainable. And recently we have around 15% crash going into $10k. But remember this crashes, like in March was due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and we could say the oil wars.

However, as I have mentioned, even if bitcoin crashes, if had recovered to more than x3, so it crash twice as hard, but rebounded while traditional markets is still on the recovery and majority of them are underperforming.

Bitcoin crashes n we sell in loss and when bitcoin reaches again high, we buy at high prices. Who is gaining profit from all these big movement of bitcoin up and down. The whales are making money and the temporary short term holders are losing money.

[Febo]

I see there is a strong correlation between SPY and Bitcoin prices.  BTC has a higher beta, however.  Whenever SPY tanks, BTC tanks twiiiiiice as hard, (as it was the first time, I said good byeeee) 
In March, BTC dropped from $10k to $5k.      I am calling for another BitCoin wipeout when the market crashes. 

But it will also recover 3 times as fast. That is what markets do. they crash they recover. They have bear or bull trends. If you hold and not trade you end up with exactly the same number of coins no matter what happens.

Depends from how you tryst your assets, the volatility really hurts but like what you have said, when you hold
your coin as it is, same amount will be depends from the market value, the bounced back will take place and
it will bring you good profits once the bull show up strong.

Depends on your exist strategy. With Bitcoin the most simple is to buy more all the time until old ATH. So You buy all the time from mid 2018. Whenever you have spare money you buy. Once price will reach $20k you stop buying. When price will go over $50 and over $100 you spend. You buy things that you will need in upcoming years. Car. Furniture. Whatever. This is the best Bitcoin exit strategy you can have.  But there are more. You can whenever price of Bitcoin doubles sell 10%. This is more traders exit strategy. Perfect for some alts. Specially the ICO ones. I wish I would use it more often. So you never miss moon and you never totally lose your investment.

[exstasie]

This correlation isn't fundamental, there's no deep tie between Bitcoin and stock market, it's just that all markets get affected by covid/quarantine/recession, so sooner or later this correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will end. I totally can see how some bears will get rekt with their shorts when Bitcoin won't drop as hard as they expect. It might not happen soon, but it will totally happen sometime in the future.

Keep one thing in mind: the entire price history of BTC has taken place in the context of a mega bullish stock market and strongly growing economies. Stocks and BTC have broadly risen together since Bitcoin's inception. That should come as no surprise since they are both risk assets, and they both benefit from easy credit and QE and other bubble-inducing monetary policy. Is it really so surprising they would fall together in a stock bear market or recession?

The most likely scenario is that the correlation will continue, in both directions. The OP is right, BTC will crash twice as hard, but it will also pump twice as hard (probably more actually) in the other direction.

[Viscore]

Would like to end this drama. Why not pushing it to crash and making FUD to newcomers instead of keeping the market full of positive and it really sounds more encouraging to read.

Crash, crash...it all has to come through if we always think about it and it crashing our faith as well. For a decade that Bitcoin had existed, we fall hard so many times but we are still able to stand and keep stronger. If we crashed again, just ignored it because soon it rises back, time to accumulate more?

[adaseb]

The issue presently is this and I am a little worried also. We all know that crypto markets are correlated with stocks. If stocks go down...crypto will follow. These are risk-on type of assets.

One reason why the stock market is making new highs is because many took advantage of stimulus and government subsidies and invested in the stock market. Hence why TSLA and APPL and even HTZ have these unbelievable prices at times. Whats worse is the market is highly leveraged due to call options. Most of this is by retail traders. They are all greedy and tell their friends and family and get even more money poured into the market.

Question is... what will happen when the rug gets pulled? Can the fed save the stock market? Perhaps. However greed will quickly turn into fear and we might get those circuit breaker type of days again.

[KTChampions]

There is a certain logic in such reasoning and it is possible that it will be so, bitcoin is more volatile and it can fall much stronger than traditional assets during a crisis.
But I see that the governments of all countries are pursuing a total monetary policy and do not allow assets to show their real price - the market is flooded with money at any hint of a fall. In such conditions, an asset like bitcoin may, on the contrary, grow.

[SquallLeonhart]

Right now people are guessing everything they can throw at crypto prices, will go down, will go up, will go on like this, everything they can think of.

Just like that's not enough, they have started to not only trying to predict the future but also started to predict what would happen if something happened to something else, which is totally null point because lets be honest I do not care about what happens to stock market, if it impacts crypto that is the only thing I will care, as long as crypto goes up and stays strong I couldn't care less about nasdaq going down the garbage hole. I am not american and american companies deserve even worse and if USA goes down in economy that means we are going to be stronger as well.

[Arkann]

I believe that today there is no need to raise panic and discuss a possible fall in the cryptocurrency market. We have not yet seen the real results of the past halving, which should appear before the end of this year, and especially on a large scale, necessarily a year after the event. In addition, due to the economic crisis, it is cryptocurrencies that are very popular assets. Therefore, do not expect the market to fall in the near future.

[ibuddy122505]

For the record, bitcoin drop to as low as $3k in March, wiping out more than 50%, so yes it is technically a crash. But it has recovered nicely, even getting as high as $12400, however the price is not sustainable. And recently we have around 15% crash going into $10k. But remember this crashes, like in March was due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and we could say the oil wars.

However, as I have mentioned, even if bitcoin crashes, if had recovered to more than x3, so it crash twice as hard, but rebounded while traditional markets is still on the recovery and majority of them are underperforming.

Bitcoin crashes n we sell in loss and when bitcoin reaches again high, we buy at high prices. Who is gaining profit from all these big movement of bitcoin up and down. The whales are making money and the temporary short term holders are losing money.

Pretty obvious as gambling is a big part of the market. In some cases there a bigger number of sellers than buyers, eventually bitcoin market manipulated by whales. Its a game of Stacking Sats and its more troublesome than we might suspect. So, Rich people get more rich and poor ones are still same poor.

[semobo]

But there is no certain reasons for Bitcoin to crash now as you are saying,maybe we can see the dump proportionally or less but its not going to crash hard since we already witnessed the fastest recovery of crypto market when the whole economy of the world crashed during pandemic.

[justdimin]

Looking at the market and looking at crypto, it crashed around the same amount and crypto even recovered faster but they both recovered eventually and then they are both doing alright right now.

So, actually we had a year where we could check what happens to stock markets and what happens to crypto, they both reacted almost the same, I am not saying one will go up while other down, I am not saying they will do anything different, all I am saying is with all the information we can gather so far in history of crypto, we could easily say that stock market and crypto market basically moves very closely. Obviously not during regular days, sometimes stocks go up a lot while crypto stays, or maybe crypto goes up a lot while stocks stay same, what I am telling is only acceptable during major moments like this pandemic situation.

[Oceat]

I believe that today there is no need to raise panic and discuss a possible fall in the cryptocurrency market. We have not yet seen the real results of the past halving, which should appear before the end of this year, and especially on a large scale, necessarily a year after the event. In addition, due to the economic crisis, it is cryptocurrencies that are very popular assets. Therefore, do not expect the market to fall in the near future.

There's always a reason why this happens and a temporary fall is not that bad in the market since it gives a chance to the traders to buyback after they have traded their crypto currencies for the profit. Newbies tend to panic because they haven't seen how the market works during bullish or bearish trends. Since the halving of Bitcoin happened this May–everyone is expecting a bull run either this coming December or next year.

[KTChampions]

But there is no certain reasons for Bitcoin to crash now as you are saying,maybe we can see the dump proportionally or less but its not going to crash hard since we already witnessed the fastest recovery of crypto market when the whole economy of the world crashed during pandemic.

But you must take into account that in March there was no reason for the crash either. Bitcoin is an anti-crisis asset, so the March events should have happened exactly the opposite. But you yourself saw how it all happened. Therefore, I believe that almost at any moment anything can happen, a big rise and a big fall. Ordinary people cannot guess this, maybe whales have more awareness/capabilities, but they are also not unlimited.