Bitcoin Forum

The amercians who invested their $1200 stimulus checks got 142%ROI in 7 months, that's a great result. I believe the next stimulus checks will bring more acceleration to bitcoin price and adoption because people who got such return tell their friends, relatives etc. Do you agree with this?

Since people can actually receive their stimulus checks through Cash App[1], whereas I assume they can immediately purchase bitcoin immediately after receiving the money, it will probably help. The question is, how significant of an effect is it?

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[1] https://cash.app/help/us/en-us/1018-cash-app-the-stimulus-and-you

As I read in the news Coinbase observed a significant uptick of deposits exactly by $1200 during the checks distribution time, so it might be similar inflow and add up to bitcoin bull rally.

Though correlation is not causation, It most likely is the reason. It's also might be the reason why Square's Bitcoin-related revenue pretty much skyrocketed in Q2 and Q3 of 2020. I'd say it's a pretty safe assumption.

yes, different businesses(not even related to crypto) probably made similar assumptions too

The weird thing is, that whilst stimulus checks might be used to buy bitcoin and so boost the price, the bigger justification for an expected bitcoin price increase is the fact that the checks are issued at all.

It could be a possible thing to make happen that once the next stimulus checks have been released, the price of Bitcoin will be boosted up due to upcoming demands coming from the people who will be receiving the stimulus checks that were influenced by those people who have already been benefited upon doing investment with Bitcoin using their past released stimulus checks. But it can also be another way around that some people will consider to use up their stimulus checks for emergency purposes for it is really intended for that thing to make them survive the situation they are currently having right now. But it is still possible for the OPs thought and idea to make happen depending if the people will be influenced by their friends to get into investing their stimulus checks on Bitcoin based on their experience doing the same thing on their past stimulus checks.

At first sight this may seem to be odd if bitcoin is to act as a store of value then it needs to go up in relation to the increase of the money supply and that is exactly what is happening, so this is good news for those that are expecting bitcoin not only to become a currency used all over the world but to also become a store value.

However despite the fact that bitcoin is above the 17k level I do not see the very same enthusiasm that I saw during the bull run of 2017 and while this may seem to be contradictory this is a good thing because this means that the growth is mostly happening because smart investors are buying all the bitcoin that they can and not necessarily because the growth has captured the attention of the media and now every single person is trying to become the next bitcoin millionaire creating a bubble in the process.

It actually wasn't significant at all, Coinbase made a very manipulative blog post that hid the absolute numbers and only showed relative increase, but if you calculate the absolute numbers, there was like a few thousand people who probably used their stimulus money on Bitcoin, which obviously won't matter for the price. It's great to theorize how some things can influence Bitcoin, but let's not forget to bring the actual evidence, because otherwise a theory is just a theory.

What are the odds a stimulus bill is passed during the lame duck session? I honestly have no idea.

Deutsche Bank analysts are betting on a "roughly $750 billion fiscal package" by Q1 next year, which means stimulus checks wouldn't hit bank accounts until then, or maybe even Q2. That's still quite a ways away.


They can use Paypal to receive stimulus checks (and invest in crypto with the money) too.

I still think most people use traditional banks for direct deposit though, and a surprising number of people opt for paper checks. They're also starting to issue debit cards.

The data Coinbase published this past April didn't make it seem like stimulus checks had a huge effect on inflows. No matter how you figure it though, they have to be a net bullish factor.

Yes, the 2017 bull run was based on insane levels of ICO FOMO, and was never sustainable. Despite the losses during 2018, bitcoin has proved its resilience, and is attracting new interest - particularly among institutional players who are well aware of the deficiencies of fiat (which have been brought into stark focus as governments respond to the pandemic).
It feels more sustainable this time. Let's hope it remains fairly bullish and doesn't become full-blown boom-and-bust FOMO again.

Exponential gains like 2011, 2013, and 2017 are never sustainable in a short term sense. If BTC does another 15-20x above the previous ATH like past cycles ($300-400K) then it's going to crash hard again, probably 80%+ again. There's just too little liquidity, too much profit on the table, too much emotion, for price to calmly plateau after gains like that. Volatility begets further volatility.

I dont especially agree, the cheques will counter deflation to a large extent as most people do not have cash spare.  There is some residual effect but most of this flip was because BTC fell so much initially before Dollar was loosened greatly; ie. we rose already so as we go higher to some extent there is a greater pressure to sell at that higher price in exchange for the same BTC unit.      To see genuine growth in BTC pricing takes more time then just this cash flow theory, its part of it but the majority of growth is from utility and expansion of genuine use by a greater user base.
  BTC has not especially risen in public interest despite this price gain, alot of buying has been with institutions and speculators.   Also the cheques are a way off arriving from here, likely we wont see it in this presidental term and it goes without saying USA is only one section of the global trading to BTC every day.   Change takes time, we're been rushed to this point slightly imo

Half yes and half no. Let's conclude that there will be another stimulus and those who will receive it will spend it elsewhere that they want. Those wise investors then as usual will buy bitcoin but it won't be all.
A boost coming from this can be said but we're seeing the cycle is being done and bitcoin is following it.

it wasn't significant enough last time and it won't be significant enough this time either even though this time a lot more people are going to invest their stimulus checks into bitcoin! the total amount is just too small in comparison to the total volume to be able to have any significant effects on the price.

take a look at where the price is at now, a month ago it was struggling to break $10k now it is about 70% above that. now take a look at the volume that went into bitcoin each day while keeping in mind that bitcoin is a global currency with a global market, now the amount of money from stimulus checks looks tiny doesn't it?

I always wondered what Americans really did with those checks, I know the news said Coinbase especially found a lot of buys that were exactly 1200 during the time, so I guess many did the smart thing and saved their free money with BTC. I think you're right, many more who didn't will be doing so this time. February checks coming then?

Agree with mk4: not causation, but I've a feeling that the results from the first people who threw their cheques into Coinbase will at least encourage them to repeat the same with coming ones. Plus now PayPal also has that option, even easier for people to do that (most Americans I'm sure will have had PP). Again, shouldn't be significant to move the markets, esp since it won't even be on-chain demand, but can't be bad news all the same.

There are so many ifs and what and when in this
- will there be another stimulus check and if yes how much it will be and for how many
- will the targeted people by the next check have enough money to even think of buying something other than food and pay utilities
- what will be the price of BTC when the checks are sent, if it has already gone x3 by that time the impact will be minimal.

Plus, the last check had no real effect, why would a second one have one especially since the timing is far worse right now?


The results might be encouraging but you also have to consider that some of them might take their profits at this point and balancing things out and that a lot of them will not afford to throw money at an investment, this help will come after nearly a year of being jobless, I'm not seeing more than a few risking what can mean a month or two of bills.

We will have to wait until the new President is decided and Biden wins and he gets the senate the vote for it or does an executive order for it himself.

This is not going to be easy and it is not going to be tomorrow, it is obvious that the current senate doesn't want another stimulus check, if it was that much important for them they would have taken that into consideration before they wanted to put another SCOTUS in place 3 days before the election, that was their priority and they didn't cared enough about the public to give them a check. That is what republican senate is all about, they do not give a damn about the public, they just want to get their way and this is why we are not going to see the checks until the run-off elections happen and Biden becomes president, only after that we "may" see it.

Coinbase and other organizations have noticed some deposits of $1200 on several exchanges that caused that mini run on April, though it's not entirely what caused that run, but at least it's a part of it. Should there be another round for stimulus packages, I'm pretty sure people will try to get their hands on bitcoin this time knowing that it is getting a lot of attention, together with a lot of money that is pouring into it today. They surely want to get into the action and make some money from the free money that they already got. I wouldn't blame them though, it's a chance to make some money with low risks.

Someone just needs to do in tiktok. However they might have received the money, make a video about receiving the stimulus money in cashapp and buying bitcoin through it. It would be a much more PR than actually making people realize what bitcoin is and how buying it is a good thing. IMO, smart and tech savvy people are already into bitcoin, it's only the difficult to make them understand group outside.

Yeah, gotta admit I don't know what the situation is like for most receiving those cheques but I figure that most who threw their first ones into Coinbase aren't those feeling the hurt yet, probably the entire reddit US crowd heh. Actually met a couple of people putting all of it into Bitcoin in casinos (go figure).

However it goes, definitely not a meaningful impact on the market.

Not only Americans but people who know the Cryptocurrency market and have money coming regardless of nationality, I keep telling my friend who have some funds to spare this new year's bonus to try the Cryptocurrency market, but I also cautioned them not to invest what they can afford to lose, whatever the circumstances there's always a risk.

This is a good investment for those who took the chance of investing low and now price has come to 18,000. Bitcoin had many investors during the pandemic this contributed to the current bitcoin bull no doubt the ROI is a testimony. I expect the wise to hodl more instead to dump.

We need to first wait and see how it will happen. If it is once again countless trillions of dollars to companies and just few hundred to some people, it is not going to be suddenly an increase for bitcoin because it is known that even though some companies started to invest into bitcoin, usually it is regular people who invest to it and giving trillions to companies will not make bitcoin go up but giving trillions to regular people will definitely make it skyrocket.

So, we need to see the stimulus package, see who gets what type of money and who gets richer from it. Biden is someone who got 40+ billionaires donate to him, not like he is different from Trump at all when it comes to corporate greed, so he probably would do the same as Trump did and nothing would change.

This is the time that workers and employers are going to receive their bonus the only thing that they are holding back is the pandemic but if they are aware of the profit and how the market is moving up they can invest in the top coins in the market, but they should aware that it does not always profit, the 142% profit in seven months is good because they invest at the right time, the market could still go down and making them lose their investment.

It's not just the $1,200 stimulus checks we need to consider. It's all the various "stimulus programs" raining helicopter money on people. I know multiple people who took $10K+ in extended unemployment while working off the books, or drew on other programs like small business grants. Those people had tens of thousands of dollars to put into whatever they wanted, and I believe this sort of behavior has been completely rampant across the population. So many people were handed so much fucking money for absolutely no reason.

I don't personally know anyone who put that money into BTC, but that's just anecdotal. It's painfully obvious that all assets are being inflated in value by the combination of QE and fiscal stimulus, and we also know from surveys about Bitcoin ownership and data from Square, etc. that it's not just a miniscule part of the population now that's investing in it.

Yes if there is another stimulus no doubt it'll help push bitcoin up some. I don't think it'll like cause a major surge, but I bet there would be at least a couple million people who would throw that money into Crypto, and probably most of it into Bitcoin. It might raise the price by $500 or something .

Right now, there is already a great huge increase in bitcoin, I doubt that the increase that could come from stimulus checks could be recognized during this period.

I am not saying it will not help, all I am saying that we are already going up, when you are already going up you may never know why it is and maybe from one point to 100-200 dollars higher we could do that because of the checks but since we already increased like $9k in the past 2 months it doesn't really make sense to me to attribute that to one thing.

It is just an all around effort from everyone and moves from every news and act, that ends up increasing it all together. So, if you were to say it is checks, someone could name something else, and when you say something other may say checks. We should just call it all equals.