Another boost to bitcoin will come with stimulus checks.

[Emily Perkins]

The amercians who invested their $1200 stimulus checks got 142%ROI in 7 months, that's a great result. I believe the next stimulus checks will bring more acceleration to bitcoin price and adoption because people who got such return tell their friends, relatives etc. Do you agree with this?

[mk4]

Since people can actually receive their stimulus checks through Cash App[1], whereas I assume they can immediately purchase bitcoin immediately after receiving the money, it will probably help. The question is, how significant of an effect is it?

[1] https://cash.app/help/us/en-us/1018-cash-app-the-stimulus-and-you

[Emily Perkins]

As I read in the news Coinbase observed a significant uptick of deposits exactly by $1200 during the checks distribution time, so it might be similar inflow and add up to bitcoin bull rally.

Since people can actually receive their stimulus checks through Cash App[1], whereas I assume they can immediately purchase bitcoin immediately after receiving the money, it will probably help. The question is, how significant of an effect is it?

[1] https://cash.app/help/us/en-us/1018-cash-app-the-stimulus-and-you

[mk4]

As I read in the news Coinbase observed a significant uptick of deposits exactly by $1200 during the checks distribution time, so it might be similar inflow and add up to bitcoin bull rally.

Though correlation is not causation, It most likely is the reason. It's also might be the reason why Square's Bitcoin-related revenue pretty much skyrocketed in Q2 and Q3 of 2020. I'd say it's a pretty safe assumption.

https://hypercharts.co/sq

[Emily Perkins]

yes, different businesses(not even related to crypto) probably made similar assumptions too

As I read in the news Coinbase observed a significant uptick of deposits exactly by $1200 during the checks distribution time, so it might be similar inflow and add up to bitcoin bull rally.

Though correlation is not causation, It most likely is the reason. It's also might be the reason why Square's Bitcoin-related revenue pretty much skyrocketed in Q2 and Q3 of 2020. I'd say it's a pretty safe assumption.

https://hypercharts.co/sq

[Cnut237]

Coinbase observed a significant uptick of deposits exactly by $1200 during the checks distribution time, so it might be similar inflow and add up to bitcoin bull rally.

The weird thing is, that whilst stimulus checks might be used to buy bitcoin and so boost the price, the bigger justification for an expected bitcoin price increase is the fact that the checks are issued at all.

[Yatsan]

It could be a possible thing to make happen that once the next stimulus checks have been released, the price of Bitcoin will be boosted up due to upcoming demands coming from the people who will be receiving the stimulus checks that were influenced by those people who have already been benefited upon doing investment with Bitcoin using their past released stimulus checks. But it can also be another way around that some people will consider to use up their stimulus checks for emergency purposes for it is really intended for that thing to make them survive the situation they are currently having right now. But it is still possible for the OPs thought and idea to make happen depending if the people will be influenced by their friends to get into investing their stimulus checks on Bitcoin based on their experience doing the same thing on their past stimulus checks.

[wxa7115]

Coinbase observed a significant uptick of deposits exactly by $1200 during the checks distribution time, so it might be similar inflow and add up to bitcoin bull rally.

The weird thing is, that whilst stimulus checks might be used to buy bitcoin and so boost the price, the bigger justification for an expected bitcoin price increase is the fact that the checks are issued at all.

At first sight this may seem to be odd if bitcoin is to act as a store of value then it needs to go up in relation to the increase of the money supply and that is exactly what is happening, so this is good news for those that are expecting bitcoin not only to become a currency used all over the world but to also become a store value.

However despite the fact that bitcoin is above the 17k level I do not see the very same enthusiasm that I saw during the bull run of 2017 and while this may seem to be contradictory this is a good thing because this means that the growth is mostly happening because smart investors are buying all the bitcoin that they can and not necessarily because the growth has captured the attention of the media and now every single person is trying to become the next bitcoin millionaire creating a bubble in the process.

[hatshepsut93]

As I read in the news Coinbase observed a significant uptick of deposits exactly by $1200 during the checks distribution time, so it might be similar inflow and add up to bitcoin bull rally.

It actually wasn't significant at all, Coinbase made a very manipulative blog post that hid the absolute numbers and only showed relative increase, but if you calculate the absolute numbers, there was like a few thousand people who probably used their stimulus money on Bitcoin, which obviously won't matter for the price. It's great to theorize how some things can influence Bitcoin, but let's not forget to bring the actual evidence, because otherwise a theory is just a theory.

[exstasie]

What are the odds a stimulus bill is passed during the lame duck session? I honestly have no idea.

Deutsche Bank analysts are betting on a "roughly $750 billion fiscal package" by Q1 next year, which means stimulus checks wouldn't hit bank accounts until then, or maybe even Q2. That's still quite a ways away.

Since people can actually receive their stimulus checks through Cash App[1], whereas I assume they can immediately purchase bitcoin immediately after receiving the money, it will probably help. The question is, how significant of an effect is it?

They can use Paypal to receive stimulus checks (and invest in crypto with the money) too.

I still think most people use traditional banks for direct deposit though, and a surprising number of people opt for paper checks. They're also starting to issue debit cards.

The data Coinbase published this past April didn't make it seem like stimulus checks had a huge effect on inflows. No matter how you figure it though, they have to be a net bullish factor.

[Cnut237]

despite the fact that bitcoin is above the 17k level I do not see the very same enthusiasm that I saw during the bull run of 2017 and while this may seem to be contradictory this is a good thing because this means that the growth is mostly happening because smart investors are buying all the bitcoin that they can and not necessarily because the growth has captured the attention of the media and now every single person is trying to become the next bitcoin millionaire creating a bubble in the process.

Yes, the 2017 bull run was based on insane levels of ICO FOMO, and was never sustainable. Despite the losses during 2018, bitcoin has proved its resilience, and is attracting new interest - particularly among institutional players who are well aware of the deficiencies of fiat (which have been brought into stark focus as governments respond to the pandemic).
It feels more sustainable this time. Let's hope it remains fairly bullish and doesn't become full-blown boom-and-bust FOMO again.

[exstasie]

It feels more sustainable this time. Let's hope it remains fairly bullish and doesn't become full-blown boom-and-bust FOMO again.

Exponential gains like 2011, 2013, and 2017 are never sustainable in a short term sense. If BTC does another 15-20x above the previous ATH like past cycles ($300-400K) then it's going to crash hard again, probably 80%+ again. There's just too little liquidity, too much profit on the table, too much emotion, for price to calmly plateau after gains like that. Volatility begets further volatility.

[STT]

I dont especially agree, the cheques will counter deflation to a large extent as most people do not have cash spare.  There is some residual effect but most of this flip was because BTC fell so much initially before Dollar was loosened greatly; ie. we rose already so as we go higher to some extent there is a greater pressure to sell at that higher price in exchange for the same BTC unit.      To see genuine growth in BTC pricing takes more time then just this cash flow theory, its part of it but the majority of growth is from utility and expansion of genuine use by a greater user base.
  BTC has not especially risen in public interest despite this price gain, alot of buying has been with institutions and speculators.   Also the cheques are a way off arriving from here, likely we wont see it in this presidental term and it goes without saying USA is only one section of the global trading to BTC every day.   Change takes time, we're been rushed to this point slightly imo

[batang_bitcoin]

The amercians who invested their $1200 stimulus checks got 142%ROI in 7 months, that's a great result. I believe the next stimulus checks will bring more acceleration to bitcoin price and adoption because people who got such return tell their friends, relatives etc. Do you agree with this?

Half yes and half no. Let's conclude that there will be another stimulus and those who will receive it will spend it elsewhere that they want. Those wise investors then as usual will buy bitcoin but it won't be all.
A boost coming from this can be said but we're seeing the cycle is being done and bitcoin is following it.

[pooya87]

it wasn't significant enough last time and it won't be significant enough this time either even though this time a lot more people are going to invest their stimulus checks into bitcoin! the total amount is just too small in comparison to the total volume to be able to have any significant effects on the price.

take a look at where the price is at now, a month ago it was struggling to break $10k now it is about 70% above that. now take a look at the volume that went into bitcoin each day while keeping in mind that bitcoin is a global currency with a global market, now the amount of money from stimulus checks looks tiny doesn't it?

[slaman29]

The amercians who invested their $1200 stimulus checks got 142%ROI in 7 months, that's a great result. I believe the next stimulus checks will bring more acceleration to bitcoin price and adoption because people who got such return tell their friends, relatives etc. Do you agree with this?

I always wondered what Americans really did with those checks, I know the news said Coinbase especially found a lot of buys that were exactly 1200 during the time, so I guess many did the smart thing and saved their free money with BTC. I think you're right, many more who didn't will be doing so this time. February checks coming then?

[buwaytress]

Agree with mk4: not causation, but I've a feeling that the results from the first people who threw their cheques into Coinbase will at least encourage them to repeat the same with coming ones. Plus now PayPal also has that option, even easier for people to do that (most Americans I'm sure will have had PP). Again, shouldn't be significant to move the markets, esp since it won't even be on-chain demand, but can't be bad news all the same.

[stompix]

There are so many ifs and what and when in this
- will there be another stimulus check and if yes how much it will be and for how many
- will the targeted people by the next check have enough money to even think of buying something other than food and pay utilities
- what will be the price of BTC when the checks are sent, if it has already gone x3 by that time the impact will be minimal.

Plus, the last check had no real effect, why would a second one have one especially since the timing is far worse right now?

Agree with mk4: not causation, but I've a feeling that the results from the first people who threw their cheques into Coinbase will at least encourage them to repeat the same with coming ones.

The results might be encouraging but you also have to consider that some of them might take their profits at this point and balancing things out and that a lot of them will not afford to throw money at an investment, this help will come after nearly a year of being jobless, I'm not seeing more than a few risking what can mean a month or two of bills.

[davinchi]

We will have to wait until the new President is decided and Biden wins and he gets the senate the vote for it or does an executive order for it himself.

This is not going to be easy and it is not going to be tomorrow, it is obvious that the current senate doesn't want another stimulus check, if it was that much important for them they would have taken that into consideration before they wanted to put another SCOTUS in place 3 days before the election, that was their priority and they didn't cared enough about the public to give them a check. That is what republican senate is all about, they do not give a damn about the public, they just want to get their way and this is why we are not going to see the checks until the run-off elections happen and Biden becomes president, only after that we "may" see it.

[dothebeats]

Coinbase and other organizations have noticed some deposits of $1200 on several exchanges that caused that mini run on April, though it's not entirely what caused that run, but at least it's a part of it. Should there be another round for stimulus packages, I'm pretty sure people will try to get their hands on bitcoin this time knowing that it is getting a lot of attention, together with a lot of money that is pouring into it today. They surely want to get into the action and make some money from the free money that they already got. I wouldn't blame them though, it's a chance to make some money with low risks.