Title: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: notblox1 on November 16, 2020, 10:50:52 PM https://i.imgur.com/5hMETIy.png
https://i.imgur.com/PymSyEM.png I was talking with other forum members and after looking at Merit Dashboard (https://public.tableau.com/profile/ddmrddmr#!/vizhome/BitcointalkMeritDashboard/GlobalSummary) made by DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1582324), I came to conclusion that Merit distribution is slowly declining. Last week from November 9 to November 15 is very low if we look at statistics, that dropped a lot compared to all previous week and I think it hit ATL. https://i.imgur.com/ub8mZ9A.jpg Merit Dashboard (https://public.tableau.com/profile/ddmrddmr#!/vizhome/BitcointalkMeritDashboard/GlobalSummary) I don't know if one of the the reasons is that are some inactive merit sources like mentioned in Merit Sources without activity in the past 20 days (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5284942), or something else that I am not aware off. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: suchmoon on November 16, 2020, 11:20:18 PM Last week from November 9 to November 15 is very low if we look at statistics, that dropped a lot compared to all previous week and I think it hit ATL. There is something wrong with Dd's data. I see 4731 merits sent during that week. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: notblox1 on November 16, 2020, 11:23:15 PM There is something wrong with Dd's data. I see 4731 merits sent during that week. Is there some other website I can check for correct merit stats? Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: tranthidung on November 16, 2020, 11:34:24 PM Here you go:
Data is for 146 weeks (with latest Friday merit data dump):
Findings:
Summary stats: Code: variable | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max Details: Code: +-----------------------------------+ A few data for difference (pos: >=0 compares to median; neg <0 compares to median). Data shows when weeks have higher total merit than median, it usually increases +15.5 % (IQR = 4.5 - 36.9%). When weeks have lower total merit than median, it usually decreases -8.8% (IQR = -16.9% to - 4.2%) Diff positive (>=0) Code: variable | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max Diff negative Code: variable | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: The Sceptical Chymist on November 16, 2020, 11:35:30 PM I hope not. On the other hand, I haven't seen many complaints about it in Meta lately.
Makes me wonder how many members are really concerned with earning merits and/or ranking up these days--plus if I'm not mistaken forum traffic has decreased significantly as of late, and I've certainly noticed a dearth of interesting threads in the past few months. Don't know what's going on, but I'd sure like to. Are people losing interest in the forum? Bitcoin? Dunno. As for me, I've been seriously slacking this month and have been a piss-poor excuse for a merit source. I'm going to try to make an effort to distribute more merits, but lately I just haven't had the time. That also makes me curious as to how active the other merit sources are, since we don't get any data on that that I know of. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: suchmoon on November 16, 2020, 11:38:40 PM Is there some other website I can check for correct merit stats? https://bpip.org/smerit.aspx?&from=*&start=2020-11-09T00:00:00&end=2020-11-15T23:59:59#cphBody_lsummerit (https://bpip.org/smerit.aspx?&from=*&start=2020-11-09T00:00:00&end=2020-11-15T23:59:59#cphBody_lsummerit) Ok, it's 4742, which makes me question my own data now :) Actually I know there is an issue with 50 merits sent by theymos to GazetaBitcoin; possibly some other discrepancies; but the total is definitely a lot more than 2787 merits and there is no huge decrease in that week. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: hosseinimr93 on November 16, 2020, 11:48:48 PM Actually I know there is an issue with 50 merits sent by theymos to GazetaBitcoin; possibly some other discrepancies; but the total is definitely a lot more than 2787 merits and there is no huge decrease in that week. Since DdmrDdmr updates the merit dashboard every Friday after theymos publishes the merit data, I think that we should wait until the next update on November 20 to see the correct data for the week ending on November 15. The last update was made on November 13. So, the number shown for week November 9-15 is actually number of merits distributed between November 9 and November 13. Also, the decline at the end of charts shown above is because the November has not ended yet. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: suchmoon on November 16, 2020, 11:54:20 PM Since DdmrDdmr updates the merit dashboard every Friday after theymos publishes the merit data, I think that we should wait until the next update on November 20 to see the correct data for the week ending on November 15. The last update was made on November 13. So, the number shown for week November 9-15 is actually number of merits distributed between November 9 and November 13. There you go, mystery solved. That's not to say we couldn't send more merits... we're barely sending half of what we should: ~21k merit source allocation (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=merit;stats=sources), ~21k total sent per month (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=merit;stats=topsend), meaning that not every user sends out their earned merits, or not every merit source sends out their full allocation, or a combination thereof. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: tranthidung on November 17, 2020, 12:10:06 AM Also, the decline at the end of charts shown above is because the November has not ended yet. The last Friday merit data dump is ended at 13nov2020 02:49:22 GMT time. Just less than first 3 hours of 13nov2020. Totally, there are 87 merit distributed in that short censored period of 13nov2020.Data is for 146 weeks (with latest Friday merit data dump):
Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: Welsh on November 17, 2020, 01:20:43 AM Definitely can't speak on behalf of everyone here, but since Covid struck I've been up to my eye balls in work related stuff. I'm assuming many others have also experienced this, since the workforce of each company has likely reduced their live employees, and placed them on support such as furlough, resulting in the few that are lucky enough to be deemed essential are carrying the entire workload of the entire company. This would likely have an effect on the merit distribution, and overall the activity levels. Something else, I think that has likely dipped temporarily, although the boom in Bitcoin price may have disguised that a little bit.
Anyway, my merit distribution along with activity has certainly been impacted by recent events, however it does seem to be slowly getting better. It might be interesting for the statistics guys to evaluate this, as restrictions, and economies get back online which I believe most countries are making progress towards. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: tranthidung on November 17, 2020, 03:19:00 AM Anyway, my merit distribution along with activity has certainly been impacted by recent events, however it does seem to be slowly getting better. It might be interesting for the statistics guys to evaluate this, as restrictions, and economies get back online which I believe most countries are making progress towards. It is difficult to get any causal data interpretation when using different data sets from different sources and data collection methodologies are unknown. These charts are visually presenting a combination of data and with some unknown bias factors.The 2020 plot (I used a multiplier at 10 for daily merit to get better visualization on the plot). The pandemic, lockdown, economic status probably did not affect (or unsignificantly affect) daily merit distributions (of course, there are bias factors are not taken into considerations here). The unemployment rate in Europe is given by Lucius (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5287762.msg55553961#msg55553961). Source (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics) Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: khaled0111 on November 17, 2020, 03:47:01 AM We need more fresh merit sources.
some of the old merit sources allocation must be revised. Up or down this is not going to work as most of those who frequent this board are either already merit sources or merit source wanna be. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: Jet Cash on November 17, 2020, 04:06:05 AM We need more fresh merit sources. Up or down some of the old merit sources allocation must be revised. End of the debate /. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: DdmrDdmr on November 17, 2020, 08:23:03 AM As stated, the last week’s data is partial, and still lacks the whole weekend’s data to make up for the complete week (the most recent week’s data is completed on the following Friday, in accordance to the Merit.txt file content).
Overall merit distribution numbers have gone down somewhat since the beginning of year, but while the first few months of 2020 seemed to still have been under the spell of last year’s Merits Source allocation distribution, the last 9 months are pretty flat overall (senders and receivers too). For whatever cumulative of reasons, Merit Source redistribution had a noticeable effect for 3 or a few months, but then slid back into the comfort zone in terms of numbers (20-22k/month). Perhaps some automated rebalance (+/-) every 3 months could spur things up a bit. Designating additional Merit sources still requires a high degree of centralized trust, and a global overview of where a Merit Source could be helpful. A concept such as a delegate merit source may help. @Jet Cash used the term "dMerits" back in 2018, and the idea would build on top of that: Allow for Merit Sources to designate 1 Delegate Merit Source, and transfer a percentage of their own allowance (sMerits; not having to merit them first so they could sMerit others). The idea behind being that you’d have more eyes on the board, derive new sources through delegation (delegating therefore the required conceptual trust on level down the chain). Of course it may not be ideal, since the Merit Source and delegate may roam the same boards and perhaps have similar meriting likes. The ideal approach may be to have more completely independent Merit Sources rather than only playing with increasing sMerit quotas (again, looking to extend diversity in criteria as well as sMerit distribution totals), but since selecting is a long and trust related process, perhaps designation by designation could help. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: Lucius on November 17, 2020, 02:00:27 PM We need more fresh merit sources. some of the old merit sources allocation must be revised. Of course, the inactive ones need to be replaced with new ones - and as far as I know, there is an interest of many members to become merit sources. Also, when choosing new MS admin should take into account where these members are active, because some current merit sources have put half of the forum on ignore, and often have their favorites - and a lot of good posts are left without merit. Anyone can do whatever they want with their merit, but I thought that some basic principle is that merit rewards a good post, not the one who wrote that post. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: notblox1 on November 17, 2020, 02:29:56 PM Designating additional Merit sources still requires a high degree of centralized trust, and a global overview of where a Merit Source could be helpful. A concept such as a delegate merit source may help. @Jet Cash used the term "dMerits" back in 2018, and the idea would build on top of that: Allow for Merit Sources to designate 1 Delegate Merit Source, and transfer a percentage of their own allowance (sMerits; not having to merit them first so they could sMerit others). Thank you for detailed answer and explanation. dMerits sounds like an interesting idea but I don't think this will be added any time soon if nothing has been done about it for more than two years. New merit sources is centralized solution but it would improve current situation. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: LTU_btc on November 17, 2020, 08:27:18 PM We need more fresh merit sources. Good point. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's long time since theymos updated list of merit sources last time. I think he haven't done it in 2020 yet.some of the old merit sources allocation must be revised. Since then some of sources become significantly less active ir inactive at all. Some simply send less their source merits. I'm not merit source and I don't pretend to become one of them, but I must admit that I also not giving enough merits and I think I'm not only such member. Sometimes I'm just too lazy or simply forget about it. Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: LoyceV on November 17, 2020, 09:14:38 PM Is there some other website I can check for correct merit stats? When in doubt, get the raw data (https://loyce.club/Merit/merit.all.txt). Updated up to last Friday's weekly Merit data dump.For a quick weekly impression, see LoyceV's Merit data analysis (full data since Jan. 24, 2018; not just 120 days) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3078328.0;all) and search for "Total:" Definitely can't speak on behalf of everyone here, but since Covid struck I've been up to my eye balls in work related stuff. I'm assuming many others have also experienced this I've been short on time ever since this year started. 2020 really has it's ways.Good point. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's long time since theymos updated list of merit sources last time. I think he haven't done it in 2020 yet. Correct. If some sources stop sending sMerit, and other sources don't get their source increased, it's inevitable for the total Merit distribution to go down. My source is piling up again too, I've sent less than my source amount (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=merit;stats=topsend) in the past 30 days. But there's still more sMerit being sent than right before theymos' last source update.Title: Re: Is Merit distribution declining? Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on November 17, 2020, 10:31:15 PM Surely if some merit sources are inactive for a significant period of time theymos should remove them when he does his next update & appoint new, more active sources. Likewise if current merit sources aren’t getting through their source allowance then they should have it lowered & he should distribute that source allowance to people who get through their source merit allowance, i.e. people like me ;)
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