Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Gambling discussion => Topic started by: NotATether on December 23, 2020, 10:59:44 AM



Title: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: NotATether on December 23, 2020, 10:59:44 AM
I haven't been doing well with my parlays for the past few days so I wanted to seek some quick advice from people who gamble here frequently, if the legs I'm choosing are absolute trash or hopeful of hitting.

Here's the first one. Napoli, Roma, Inter Milan, Rennes, Lyon and PSG all to win, total 9.61x odds. Any legs you think I should replace?

https://i.ibb.co/M7XCQN2/05-A7-A26-F-C949-42-B6-9447-DEF877352-AC1.jpg


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: BitcoinGirl.Club on December 23, 2020, 11:03:32 AM
If you are doing very well with your legs then I would suggest continue because when you will get different selections from different people then you will get confused.

It seems you have gone with the favorites and I think last week we seen favorites to win most of the matches. If this was two weeks ago then you would not get your slip correct LOL

Enjoy the good times brother.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: NotATether on December 23, 2020, 11:12:35 AM
If you are doing very well with your legs then I would suggest continue because when you will get different selections from different people then you will get confused.

It seems you have gone with the favorites and I think last week we seen favorites to win most of the matches. If this was two weeks ago then you would not get your slip correct LOL

Enjoy the good times brother.

Thanks brother, my legs from the EPL are the only legs that are mostly successful. Too many times I did an analysis or just took the lowest 1X2 odds in the other leagues and then I lose 1 or 2 out of 4 legs. Remember how nearly everyone lost their Spurs leg in last week's Betnomi prediction thread?  ;D

So I feel like some my legs are going to surprise me with draws. And I don't really want to wait until Saturday for next week's EPL matches so I've mostly been betting in Serie A and Bundesliga. La Liga has so far been a minefield for me, and Ligue 1 is uncharted territory as far as my bets are concerned.

We shall see what other people come up with, I don't trust my legs at this point  :)


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: tyKiwanuka on December 23, 2020, 11:18:38 AM
1) Parlays are only good, if all (or the majority) of selections have value, because you multiply the value with it.
2) I am a firm believer, that there is very few value to be found pre-match in the big leagues these days. If you are not dedicating 24/7 to this, you won't be able to find valuable bets longterm.

So I would strongly advise against playing these kind of parlays, you will lose ;) Go with single bets for a start and see how you do. Even better is, if you search for some niche and become an expert there. This can be other/smaller sports or smaller leagues/lower divisions in football.

If you just do this for fun, then you can play those parlays of course, but don't complain about losing then :)


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: swogerino on December 23, 2020, 11:37:40 AM
I see that you have chosen teams which are expected to win as they are considered strong teams playing against weaker ones.While in most of the cases these teams win when they are playing at home this is not always true.The fact that you keep losing is that you play parlays with 6 games or more and the more games you choose for your bet the higher the risk of losing that bet.Try to lower the number of the games in your parlays and you will probably see better results.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: Yogee on December 23, 2020, 12:02:49 PM
I guess it's not a bad choice to pick the favorites but have you checked the list of injuries or covid infected players? It will give you some idea on what the line up will be before the match starts. If I am going to parlay that many games, I would choose favorite teams that would play at home. Consider replacing or revising the odds for Inter Milan.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: BitcoinGirl.Club on December 23, 2020, 01:05:53 PM
Thanks brother, my legs from the EPL are the only legs that are mostly successful. Too many times I did an analysis or just took the lowest 1X2 odds in the other leagues and then I lose 1 or 2 out of 4 legs. Remember how nearly everyone lost their Spurs leg in last week's Betnomi prediction thread?  ;D
I do not take part but if you are talking about the match against Leicester then yes it was unexpected considering how well Tottemham performed in the recent times. However there are few teams I do not trust in EPL. Utd, Arsenal are some of them. I think Tottenham lost me some money in the past too and I did not have much confident on them.

<snip>
My losing ratio in parlays are very high but it's a bit better when it's in-play. What I mean a bit better is may be 1 out of 100 😛.

But I make more parley (even two fold) then placing single bets. Single bets make me money though but someone I get too excited and add up one or two more legs and eventually lose. In the recent time I was lucky with the free bet I had from the clubhouse in sportsbet,io. I was able to hit an odd of 4+ in a four fold.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: Fundamentals Of on December 23, 2020, 02:00:00 PM
Just an opinion here based on a limited experience in multi-betting. A total of 6 games in parlay is hard to win. It happens very seldom that all 6 bets will win despite their being favorites.

I am curious as to how much you are betting on these. If that is only a small amount which is just intended for fun then I guess it is all right. But if you are betting with an amount big enough to make you scratch your head all throughout the day then I think you should reduce your parlay bets to around 3-4 games.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: Coin_trader on December 23, 2020, 02:22:27 PM
Just an opinion here based on a limited experience in multi-betting. A total of 6 games in parlay is hard to win. It happens very seldom that all 6 bets will win despite their being favorites.

I am curious as to how much you are betting on these. If that is only a small amount which is just intended for fun then I guess it is all right. But if you are betting with an amount big enough to make you scratch your head all throughout the day then I think you should reduce your parlay bets to around 3-4 games.

I believe he is asking for the opinion about his pick and not an advice about the winning probability of the parlay quantity pick match.



I notice you pick the team with high probability rate which is usual on parlay. Picking the other side will be more riskier so your pick is right.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: NotATether on December 23, 2020, 05:03:15 PM
Just an opinion here based on a limited experience in multi-betting. A total of 6 games in parlay is hard to win. It happens very seldom that all 6 bets will win despite their being favorites.

The only reason why I would take 5+ legs in a parlay is to get a 9% odds boost from Sportsbet, but quickly I'm realizing that it's not worth it.

I am curious as to how much you are betting on these. If that is only a small amount which is just intended for fun then I guess it is all right. But if you are betting with an amount big enough to make you scratch your head all throughout the day then I think you should reduce your parlay bets to around 3-4 games.

I got a bankroll of 1mBTC and am betting 0.01mBTC in all these games. I'm currently down to 0.76mBTC cause of mistakes I made.

~snip

I believe he is asking for the opinion about his pick and not an advice about the winning probability of the parlay quantity pick match.

My response above pretty much summarizes why I took 5/6 leg multis, but I'm going to limit myself to a maximum of 3 legs going forward.



I scrapped all the bets I wrote about above (because I'm serious about winning  8)) and decided to bet on the EFL Cup. Specifically in the Everton vs Man United game.

https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/f3e0f1b0-00f3-41cb-8c58-

7 total singles here, one of which is a risk-free bet (Corners Under 10.5 @1.67x)

Two bets on Correct Score 2:3 and 1:4 using my Super Boost, so it'll be a good day if I win one of those.

Fairly large odds on Multigoals 1:2 1:3 1:4 and 2:3 2:4 3:4 1:5.

An auxiliary Everton/ManU to win & BTTS to increase my reward. At this point I may risk losing my corners bet while sustaining minimum losses.

And a hedge bet of Everton to win & Asian Total Under 3.5 in case they surprise us with a 2:1 or 1:0.

So the scores for which I make a net win, in order of biggest win, are 1:4 2:3 2:4 2:5 1:5 1:3 1:2 2:1. And the scores for which I sustain partial losses are 1:0 2:0 3:0, all draws >0:0. I got an 8th BTTS bet on this match that's parlayed with Spurs winning the other EFL game today.

My (near) total losses will be for all outcomes with 0:0 0:1 2:1 3:1 4:2 4:1... etc. I say near because in most probable of these cases my corner bet will soften the blow a little bit. I am expecting Everton to score 1 or 2 goals in this game without Rodriguez playing. I don't care much what ManU does as long as they score something.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: kkaroul4 on December 23, 2020, 06:53:23 PM
I like this kind of prediction well I would watch first what will happen to your parlays in a few days and after that if things goes well I will follow your tips, I hope you would have a good result on your next predictions.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: notblox1 on December 23, 2020, 06:57:00 PM
I don't like taking to much matches from French Ligue1 because they are very unpredictable, and I even have a friend from France working in betting industry who confirmed that for me.
I like adding some double chances and asian handicaps to reduce risk and increase chances, but everyone has good and bad days, and please don't bet more than you can afford to lose.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: BTCGOLD on December 23, 2020, 07:09:45 PM
Normally these are bets where you take relatively little risk of losing. The problem is if you take a odds of 1.35 5x, that in theory you should lose.
In fact, you should do one at a time and not continue for too long, and combine it with bankroll management.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: BitcoinGirl.Club on December 23, 2020, 07:30:35 PM
<snip>
One of my three fold is going to die in less than 10 minutes LOL

This is what I do in the in-play market. I need ajax to win in the next 10 minutes.

Most of the time I make 2 or 3 folds instead of a very long slip. Less legs, less risk however it's hard to win still.

7 total singles here, one of which is a risk-free bet (Corners Under 10.5 @1.67x)
There are nothing which is risk free until you get the result you expected. I go for over market most of the time and many times I was stuck at the exact number like say it's over x.5 and the result was x.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: nelson4lov on December 23, 2020, 08:09:08 PM
(...)
Here's the first one. Napoli, Roma, Inter Milan, Rennes, Lyon and PSG all to win, total 9.61x odds. Any legs you think I should replace?
(...)

It's going well so far. Rennes and Inter Milan both won by 1 goal. I have a feeling that we would not have an upset tonight unlike yesterday with Juventus embarrassing 3-0 defeat.  After incurring a lot of losses that ate almost all of my bankroll, I have decided to stop playing long parley bets and concentrate on smaller bet slips then I increase my stakes. It's either a single or a multi bet with a max of 3 selections and so far so good it has been paying off well as I focus on events which I think are more than likely to happen.

Here's an example of the kinda parley I play nowadays:
https://i.postimg.cc/W17ntHMG/IMG-20201223-210624.jpg

At the time of writing this post, Milan is leading Lazio by 2-0 and Roma is ahead with 1-0. Let's see how the remainder of the parley goes. Goodluck @NotATether!

<snip>
One of my three fold is going to die in less than 10 minutes LOL
~Snipped

It's funny how Ajax messed up that beautiful slip with their 1-1 draw. Ajax had 1.13 odds to nail the game but end up losing their early lead without being able to score again. Pathetic.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: Fundamentals Of on December 24, 2020, 03:55:11 AM
Just an opinion here based on a limited experience in multi-betting. A total of 6 games in parlay is hard to win. It happens very seldom that all 6 bets will win despite their being favorites.

I am curious as to how much you are betting on these. If that is only a small amount which is just intended for fun then I guess it is all right. But if you are betting with an amount big enough to make you scratch your head all throughout the day then I think you should reduce your parlay bets to around 3-4 games.

I notice you pick the team with high probability rate which is usual on parlay. Picking the other side will be more riskier so your pick is right.

A pick is not automatically right simply because it has low odds. Odds, especially pre-game, can only reflect so much. As I said, a 6-match parlay which is all composed of favorites still seldom wins.

Just an opinion here based on a limited experience in multi-betting. A total of 6 games in parlay is hard to win. It happens very seldom that all 6 bets will win despite their being favorites.

The only reason why I would take 5+ legs in a parlay is to get a 9% odds boost from Sportsbet, but quickly I'm realizing that it's not worth it.

That 9% boost is indeed enticing. Sportsbet knows very well how to set a trap. I wish you luck in your next bets, anyway. :)


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: NotATether on December 25, 2020, 10:52:28 PM
Alright guys here's my new bet courtesy of Sportsbet's Free Bet.

https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/0a9e8a0e-b2bb-4dac-b4d9-2f5f808db544

https://i.ibb.co/ngjJSsk/Screenshot-2020-12-26-My-Bets-Sportsbet-io.png

Liverpool and Manchester City should be easy wins on this slip. Sheffield's 2 goal trick from last match was in my view an anomaly and shouldn't be repeated again against Everton. As for Arsenal vs Chelsea I still think Arteta will manage the club so poorly that their disarray will end up giving Chelsea this win and compounding the misery for Arsenal. But instead of taking that bet I am opting for Arsenal and Chelsea to have a lackluster first half and more goals in the second half, if Arsenal even scores at all that is. But this doesn't matter because I still think Chelsea will do better in the second half, assuming Chelsea does over 2.5 goals.

(...)
Here's the first one. Napoli, Roma, Inter Milan, Rennes, Lyon and PSG all to win, total 9.61x odds. Any legs you think I should replace?
(...)

It's going well so far. Rennes and Inter Milan both won by 1 goal. I have a feeling that we would not have an upset tonight unlike yesterday with Juventus embarrassing 3-0 defeat.  After incurring a lot of losses that ate almost all of my bankroll, I have decided to stop playing long parley bets and concentrate on smaller bet slips then I increase my stakes. It's either a single or a multi bet with a max of 3 selections and so far so good it has been paying off well as I focus on events which I think are more than likely to happen.

I'm glad I didn't take this because Napoli would've ruined it for me. I wouldn't have played Inter Milan anyway but they did surprisingly well this week.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: Saint-loup on December 25, 2020, 10:57:44 PM
Alright guys here's my new bet courtesy of Sportsbet's Free Bet.

https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/0a9e8a0e-b2bb-4dac-b4d9-2f5f808db544

https://i.ibb.co/ngjJSsk/Screenshot-2020-12-26-My-Bets-Sportsbet-io.png
[...]
Free bet? What do you mean by free bet please? It's a special bonus they offered to you or it's available for everyone?
How can we get those free bets please?


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: NotATether on December 26, 2020, 01:03:56 AM
Alright guys here's my new bet courtesy of Sportsbet's Free Bet.

https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/0a9e8a0e-b2bb-4dac-b4d9-2f5f808db544

https://i.ibb.co/ngjJSsk/Screenshot-2020-12-26-My-Bets-Sportsbet-io.png
[...]
Free bet? What do you mean by free bet please? It's a special bonus they offered to you or it's available for everyone?
How can we get those free bets please?

A bunch of 1mBTC free bets were given to random people's accounts as per Sportbet.io's announcement. They can't be claimed by yourself. When you use a free bet, you'll only get the rewards from the bet you pick, so if for example you bet in a 1.8x odds market, you will only get 0.8mBTC if you win, and not 1.8mBTC. This is to stop people from taking advantage of the system and getting free money of course.

Hi guys,

Good luck with your NBA bets today! wish you all the best!

Santa Steve has dropped some free bets into some random accounts! check it out!

regards

Santa Steve
Sportsbet.io



Speaking of free bets, I used one of them on the Milwaukee Bucks vs Golden State Warriors game, and I came just in time to see the 4th quarter. So my bets were mainly around that as the game was otherwise done.

I used it on Asian total under 230.5 points, which lost really soon (the Bucks and Khris Middleton were on fire during the last quarter). But this loss doesn't matter, because I had a cool 0.1mBTC wager at 1.78x odds for Asian handicap -29.5 for the Bucks. This back when the score was 115:82, so I secured that win farily quickly.

These free bets expire on 28 December so I plan on using half of them today for the Premier League matches.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: Saint-loup on January 01, 2021, 05:33:59 PM
Alright guys here's my new bet courtesy of Sportsbet's Free Bet.

https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/0a9e8a0e-b2bb-4dac-b4d9-2f5f808db544

https://i.ibb.co/ngjJSsk/Screenshot-2020-12-26-My-Bets-Sportsbet-io.png
[...]
Free bet? What do you mean by free bet please? It's a special bonus they offered to you or it's available for everyone?
How can we get those free bets please?

A bunch of 1mBTC free bets were given to random people's accounts as per Sportbet.io's announcement. They can't be claimed by yourself. When you use a free bet, you'll only get the rewards from the bet you pick, so if for example you bet in a 1.8x odds market, you will only get 0.8mBTC if you win, and not 1.8mBTC. This is to stop people from taking advantage of the system and getting free money of course.
Thank you very much for the explanations NotATether  :)
Do you know if Sportbet.io will soon make another give away of this kind plz?


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: NotATether on January 01, 2021, 08:13:26 PM
@Saint-loup: it seems to only be a seasonal thing, so there's no way of knowing sure when's the next time something like this will happen.



Anyway, a couple football bets tonight. After my Everton - West Ham ticket lost to a late goal (but to be fair with the way the game was going a draw would've made me lose too). I now have some bets in the Manchester United - Aston Villa market. Cavani is suspended for the next three matches so I have played around that.

https://i.ibb.co/p0HJz1D/42-F4-DB10-6-BDF-4-DBF-818-F-9-AC6-AB4-B89-E7.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/YyCd9qm/52-B4025-F-DB9-B-4043-822-A-39-AD26-E6-EC28.jpg

What else do you guys recommend taking while this is live?


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: NotATether on January 09, 2021, 09:43:03 AM
^^ all of those bets ended up winning except for the Draw bet, when ManU managed to pull ahead of Villa with a penalty by Fernandes.

Anyway, new day new bet, have we?

https://i.ibb.co/PQ4tf8j/B55-B7-A11-2248-4548-8-E80-593508-B0556-A.jpg

Lots of FA Cup games today with plenty of teams facing lower-ranking teams with odds that are suitable for supplementing my multi. Main bet is on Leipzig vs Dortmund having BTTS and Asian total over 2.5 goals.

I'm more interested about opinions for FA Cup games to take. I'm reasonably sure the Everton leg will win but I am doubtful about ManU, even though this particular game has them @1.31x and Watford at @9.8x easily makes it one of the least risky picks (in theory), they have conceded goals from a lot of teams from set pieces. Watford may be able to do that and at least bring the game to a draw (decided by penalties).

Maybe Arsenal could be a safer bet? I don't know if they are still on a winning streak or if Newcastle could take that away from them, but Brentford's looking strong too with better odds - I'll probably end up taking that instead of ManU.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: Viscore on January 09, 2021, 09:56:29 AM
It's really hard to win in parlay betting man, if you are successful doing it, I think you are really exceptional.
Judging by the screenshot of your bet slip, you are choosing low odds and parlay it, I've tried that in past, different game but I was not successful.

My honest suggestion is do parlay on huge payout and just do single bet with odds 1.90 and over.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: ralle14 on January 09, 2021, 10:33:39 AM
Looks like a decent parlay imo I wouldn't worry too much about Man United losing since Watford aren't that great when it comes to road matches.

I'm slightly worried on the over and btts bet, I know both of them have a good chance at scoring but take note that all of their h2h results in Leipzig always end up with 2 goals or less.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: NotATether on January 09, 2021, 01:13:10 PM
I'm slightly worried on the over and btts bet, I know both of them have a good chance at scoring but take note that all of their h2h results in Leipzig always end up with 2 goals or less.

Noted. I managed to come by here at half-time for most of the FA Cup matches so I decided to take a second parlay with the winning teams in them. By then most of their odds sank to 1.2 or 1.1 but it's about 6 legs and nearly all of these games have been decided.

https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/a7bc16f4-b913-4b4b-bcee-bf3ab13675ed

I also have AC Milan to win against Torino today since they're at the top of the table and Torino's been sailing near the bottom for some time and this is Torino playing away anyway so they don't stand a chance.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: OgNasty on January 09, 2021, 01:34:31 PM
I’d love to rate your bets but I don’t know anything about the sport. I do like that you bet parlays though. I think that’s a great way for sports fans to bet while making everyday exciting for them to follow their sport. Plus, when you do get lucky it pays off nicely. When I was gambling regularly, I always did a daily parlay and thought it was a great way to get value out of safe bets.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: NotATether on January 09, 2021, 06:32:55 PM
When I was gambling regularly, I always did a daily parlay and thought it was a great way to get value out of safe bets.

Sportsbet.io has been infatuating me with bonuses and price boosts so that has contributed to me betting almost daily. I also have an interest in basketball and I'd really like to bet on NBA games - well, I try to anyway - it's just that I've been really disoriented from it and I can't stream NBA games from where I live. I've been thinking of buying an NBA League Pass with a debit card from coinsbee, and being able to watch past games (legally) will really help me get my mind in shape and let me offload all the basketball boosts I keep getting  :P


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: Lordhermes on January 09, 2021, 09:33:59 PM
<~~>
Oops, Everton cut down your nice pick as they were unable to win during the 90th minutes, but later won in the extra time.

Borussia Dortmund gave you a successful over while beating RB Leipzig with over 3,5 goals.

Manchester United is winning Watford 1: 0 at 72' minutes,
Sorry for the lost mate.


Title: Re: Rate NotATether's sports bets
Post by: NotATether on January 27, 2021, 02:40:40 PM
Go Red Devils go!!! if you get anything less than a win against Sheffield tonight it'll be very embarrassing indeed  :)

https://i.ibb.co/nbz0k42/87-F7-C2-F9-B055-4486-A09-C-46-CFB757-E846.jpg

Now that I'm back to betting, I'm anticipating Sheffield to score no goals tonight. But at 1.96x, those odds weren't nice enough, and 2-3 multigoals at 2.00x wasn't much better, but I managed to find a lucrative multiscores 1:0, 2:0, 3:0 bet at 2.45x! This should cover all the scores ManU will be able to get tonight including if they somehow only managed to deliver only one goal. It has happened before with Burnley.

And the cream of the cake is the boosted Asian total 0:2 draw. I'm basically betting on ManU taking two goals home. I heard Rashford is injured (right?) so Pogba/Cavani/Fernandes will carry this game.