Bitcoin Forum

Everybody is expecting btc to hit 100k this year because of the so called, from all that institutional and hedge fund buying of it that caused this bull btc cycle, and of course you will get 30% healthy corrections in this cycle along the way but:

What if there was no black swan event this year and bitcoin instead of a correction, crashes back to 20k or 15k because there's no more institutions left to buy it?

Institutions are smart people smart money so why they buy at any given market price when they can save and get it cheaper in a correction or a crash?

Everybody saying bitcoin supply is running out but high demand is still there but if thats the case then how bitcoin dropped over 10% today when there's clearly supply for this demand causing it to drop over 10%???

Bitcoin dropped around $7k in a day  :o

If supply is trickling little drops like a tap then bitcoin price should increase 5k daily right?

If institutions decided to cashout then it will create massive drop wherein it would take years for bitcoin to be back on track as it took bitcoin over 3 years to break precious ATH of 2017 because it's not only institutional or whales cashing out but rather users panic selling due to sudden drop which does more damage to the price of bitcoin. But I think we got diversified investment this time so the bull market will go on for a while but honestly I have no idea about today's drop what caused that drop ir if it's a correction which I assume.

everyone who has checked the history and is extrapolating it is saying $400k+

i never considered 30% drop be healthy!

and what if the blacker swap event this year launched the price to $1 million because there were billions of people buying bitcoin?

simply because for a short time, there were more sellers than buyers.
it has nothing to do with "supply running out". that's just a story they tell kids to scare them into panic buying.

no it should reach $100 million withing a week. :D

Okay how do we know when institutions decide to cash out?

Lets take grayscale gbtc for example:

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/overview

What data on that link do we monitor to know whether this institution is increasing or decreasing their bitcoin holdings?


Okay we all must know that there will be a inevitable bear market after this bull run to 100k crashing all the way down to 20k unless institutions become hodlers that will hodl bitcoin at whatever high price.

If we have a crash now it be healthy for btc as it will be easy to recover to psychological 35k resistance after another 3 year bear market. If it crashes from 100k down to 20k then it will be much harder to recover to psychological 100k resistance meaning it can take forever to recover to 100k and were stuck in a bear market that seems forever. This is technical analysis on charts long term.

35k can be easily recovered to that resistance, might take a 2 year after bear market to recover to this right?

You probably have to stick to the specific institutions' newsletters to find out. At one point, they'll likely publicly announce the sale (or the company's investors are going to be informed about it).

All of these are predictions and probabilities. Most people are tempted to believe either what they like or what a certain celebrity thinks about the future of Bitcoin rather than rationally analyzing the markets and making their own opinion. Out of the 2016-2018 rumors, probably not even 90% have turned to reality.

I honestly doubt there is no more BTC to meet the demand, although I do not have any resource to validate my throughts tbh.

Because the supply is so small. 21,000,000 for a whole planet to save their wealth in Bitcoin is minuscule to say the least.
Secondly, the professionals usually don't trade on weekends and there was a gap to fill on the CMEs. ;)


It doesn't work exactly like that. Some institutions like to trade profits along the way and also engineer liquidity to accumulate more. When you're a whale the game is completely different.

I'm thinking now can Bitcoin beat Yearn.Finance YFI all time high of $43k soon  :o

Very hard to know how Bitcoin will behave in the following months, but I won't expect the $100k line. People are good at exaggerating about something they really care about, so they can tell you any price, 1 million too.
I wouldn't mind if we get a 30% correction. Yes it will be a good slap in our face but zoom out, the price was about $7,000 in January last year, so in the case of a correction to let's say down to $20,000 it's still a price multiplied by 3 in the space of 1 year. Still very good if you ask me

Institutional investors are generally medium to long term investors, they are not going to start selling now, so you won't see them selling anytime soon. In 2021 we will probably see more of them entering the market so the hype has a good chance to continue in 2021 :p
Don't forget about the retail interest in Bitcoin which is also participating in the demand

I believe that at the moment 10% does not represent much and this drop is almost absorbed. Interesting to see it happened again at 12.00

No one knows when institutions will cash out the Bitcoin they hold. Already many companies have invested a lot of money in the crypto market as a result of which today we have been able to cross $30k. These companies will never want to cash out without their profit. The fact is that when Bitcoin will cross $50k, governments of different countries will start investing in Bitcoin.

The most likely scenario here is these big companies instead of hodling it like what they have said is they will trigger a sell-off because they want to take profit and liquidate for cash. These big companies are not here for the long-term hodling of an asset they still here to make profit in order to do some "expansion" for their company as they needed the cash and now seeing news that they bought Bitcoin around 10,000$ I don't see them having any reasons why they won't begin selling it having more than double the profit right now. What's good about this is after they short Bitcoin is they can buy Bitcoin back to maybe at the same price on where they bought it originally or even cheaper which makes it a bad situation for us.

Those institutional companies that invested early or during these pump will not let their money slip easily, they will sure have plans to attract more institutional companies to get in Bitcoin for them to truly earn. It just started that known top companies have invested in Bitcoin so it may not reach the desired amount easily but it may not break the price too soon without them experiencing a more than profit they wanted. If ever they will goes off they surely gained a lot and I think the today's price isn't enough yet for them to do so, they sure have bigger amount goal.

there's nothing to compare btc with this yfi project. yfi got this high price tag because of its manipulators in the market. but ask what is the use case or purpose of this platform? up until now, they are still in beta and dont think they will ever develop their platform. they are now slowly going down, whereas, btc already surpassed 30k. we are now seeing the true colour of yfi

on the note about institutional investors, i dont think they will be cashing out this early. but we dont know their plans, how long are they gonna hold and buy. just be cautious with the market.

Wait I though this bull cycle to 100k is fuelled by institutional investors/hedge funds then the next bull market cycle after the 20k 3-4yrs consolidation bear market will be fuelled by governments/sovereigns/royal families?

---

Is there a website showing or tracks how many institutions/hedge funds bought bitcoin at what price? Obviously the big buyers that got in at 10k can sell now with their money tripled but what about those big buyers that bought in at 25k or 30k?

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

People refused to buy at $10k or at $1k because they though that they will just wait for a correction. Now they likely won't have a chance like that ever again. We actually had a dip today, when the price fell to 28k, and it was immediately bought.

Also, if they calculate that Bitcoin will reach certain price, like 100k or even just 50k, there's no point in trying to buy the dip, just buying at current price would net solid profits too.


When people say that supply is running out, it just means that the current holders refuse to sell for some reason. Of course it can change. It's not like coins get literally deleted.

If hodlers refusing to sell then who's supplying the liquidity/volume to buyers to cause that 10% sell off?

Everyone saying btc is capped 21million max. There's some say millions of btc have already been lost. Then you got all these institutions buying all these bitcoins. Then you got that halving last year that gives you less when mining bitcoins so Supply is dry right?

How many btc's do you require to have in your wallet to classed as a whale nowadays and how many of these whales exist including the hedge funds/institutions that bough 1000's of bitcoins?

If you see volume declining on a exchange yet prices go higher that means supply is running out?

When people talk about supply running out, they mean supply available for sale on exchanges.

There was never any strict classification of whales, it's an informal term for "big Bitcoin holder". If the number of UTXO will be growing, maybe in the future even some hundreds of coins will be considered as "whale amount". It's also not so simple as it looks - one big address could belong to many small hodlers in case of a centralized service, and some individual hodlers could own large amounts split across hundreds of addresses.

Were about to break $1 Trillion market for the 1st that is overall crypto market including altcoins. For bitcoin to hit $100k this year crypto market cap needs to be £2 Trillion by the end of this year with bitcoin taking all the crypto market from alts. If Alts pump too sharing the market with btc then overall crypto market cap needs to be at $3 Trillion if bitcoin is to hit $100k this year.

Alts are pumping now even xrp ripple is pumping even with the SEC case risk against it  :o

So if Alts pump and have their alt seasons then this will slow the btc journey to 100k?

Well the exponential growth as some point will slow down, but it doesn't mean it's because of the alt season. And remember alts are definitely going to be pump sooner or later but then again, we all know that it can go down hard as well, when the manipulators dump it unexpectedly.

And where are they going to move again? Of course, bitcoin, to the journey to $100k or more might take some time, but who knows, eventually we can reach that in 2021 or even early next year.

Consider the following scenario ...

Bitcoin price reaches $ 45,000 in February 2021 (but does not reach $ 50,000).  Institutional investors bought Bitcoin at $ 20,000.  They are tempted to lock in their profits.  At the same time, the political crisis in the United States is ending and the situation with the COVID-19 coponavirus pandemic is improving.  Institutional investors sell bitcoins.  Bitcoin price drops to $ 20,000.  After some time (October 2021), the price recovers to $ 30,000...

Will it be a democratic full sweep? If so will democratic Biden Government go against bitcoin with more regulations? Is Biden cool with bitcoin like Trump was?

Of course it will. As always, it will go up and then correct.
Noone knows how high it's going to go or how hard the correction will be.
Set your exit points, take profit, re-enter at lower prices.

ummmm not sure why you think Trump was cool with Bitcoin. Only time Trump ever mentioned Bitcoin he tweeted about it once and said he didn't like it. You've also got Mnuchin trying to ram through regulations against crypto in the finals days before Trump is kicked out. Trump is a nocoiner, an idiot, a criminal, and a terrorist. He didn't do a damn thing to help Bitcoin other than try his hardest to destroy our way of life, which tends to help Bitcoin as an escape from "the system". I doubt anything Biden does will be directed explicitly towards Bitcoin. So far other than Trump saying he doesn't like Bitcoin, a US president (Obama/Trump) has yet to say or do anything directly for or against Bitcoin.

Okay you think the Biden democrats will be cool with Bitcoin & not be like china that is Ban it with those regular china bans or harder crypto regulations?

Everyone saying democrats will increase taxes for companies in stock market bringing in more fear to the stock investors.

Biden has people who like crypto in his cabinet let alone anywhere else, I am not even talking about other places, just his cabinet has crypto people. Also we have to be a bit more open with discussion, you can be conservative all you want, and like trump if you want to, but you can't ignore the truth, democrats elect a lot more young people than republicans and democrats have a lot more crypto loving people in congress than republicans. This is not a political thing, it doesn't matter who you voted for, it is about facts and numbers.

So in a world where we have democratic congress, democratic senate, democratic vp, president and his cabinet, we are going to have a lot better crypto situation. Trump was not even aware of what bitcoin was, he knew it existed but he knew absolutely nothing about it at all so it wasn't really cool for us.

Curious to know approximately when will the American people receive their $2000 stimulus cheques through the mail from the Biden democratic administration?

If this strong btc bull market continues to that stimulus cheques posting date and the retail investors pour their stimulus cheques into btc because of FOMO then will the retail investors overtake the big institutional buyers and hence take bitcoin past $100k much earlier this year than thought?

Or the retail investors can put it into Tesla stock FOMO.

If the stimulus cheques is split evenly for BTC and TSLA then what guesstimate prices are we looking at for these asset classes?

Gold/Silver prices are dumping now because dollar index is up or because gold investors are turning into bitcoin investors?

That is not how institutional investors conduct business, they have a target at hand and they will be booking their profit when they seemed fit. The crash happens when they start booking the profit.

The supply of bitcoin is not running out, it is true that there is a limit on the number of coins but every ten minutes new coins are generated.

A daily increase of $5k daily  :D.

Of course Dems aren't like China haha wtf what kind of statement is that? Democrats embrace the future and technology and progress. Republicans hate all those things. Like I said I don't expect the Biden administration to be very for or very against Bitcoin, though since Trump was against Bitcoin and Dems are in favor of progress I expect at least a bit more progress to be made the next four years, especially as Bitcoin is having its coming out party now. And well yeh of course dems will increase taxes for companies haha, Republicans believe in corporate welfare, which bankrupts the nation, Dems will pull this country back to sanity, get the economy heading in the right direction as they are always brought in to do after Republicans destroy it. And companies paying a decent amount in taxes has nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Jury is out on that. Now that Democrats will control the Senate, it's being speculated that a third stimulus check for either $2,000 or $1,400 will come sometime in the spring. They still need to pass a bill: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/third-stimulus-check-2000-1400-possibility-2021-01-07/

People started receiving the second round of checks (for $600) about a week ago.

I wouldn't expect it to have a huge effect on Bitcoin, at least not compared to the money flow institutional investors are bringing. With Grayscale currently closed to new placements, demand is piling up for Skybridge:


https://twitter.com/Scaramucci/status/1347993132043005952

So are the institutions such as grayscale and co selling their bitcoins now causing the current price dip  ???

If not who was the bitcoins to sell causing this dip?

---

Hi coming back here, Is Janet Yallen stance on crypto more tougher under Biden administration in compared to Trump's administration?

Because lot of FUD is coming from her now and its not a coincidence the FUD times with the Biden Inauguration today.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

How many Altcoins does Grayscale Trust support again ? What is to stop institutional investors from simply switching to Altcoins, when they find the price of Bitcoin too high ?

Trump admin didn't really do much with regards to Bitcoin until the past month. And on the one hand you have the one guy in the admin doing a couple good things for crypto, and on the other hand you had Mnuchin trying to ram through restrictive regulation on crypto before Trump and his cronies got kicked out.

Yellen, like most government people in general, seems to only know about crypto used for criminal activities. That's not great that she has such an incorrect view, but her interest seems to be simply in regulation as to curb criminal usage, she's not like some anti-crypto zealot. I don't think crypto people should be afraid of regulation as long as it doesn't stop innovation. We'll see how it all plays out though. Other than the IRS going after taxes and the FBI going after criminal use of crypto, the US federal gov't hasn't really done much at all in regards to crypto until the past month with a mix of negative and positive things. More regulation is eventually going to happen, I wouldn't say the new admin will necessarily be better or worse than the last admin, cuz there really isn't a track record to go on in terms of US government actions on crypto up until now.

Biden's new SEC Chair though, Gensler, taught a university class on blockchain and so is much more familiar with the tech than what we normally see from top govt officials. He's pro-regulation but also pro-blockchain. Seems like he'll approach regulation in a way to broaden crypto's entry into the world of big finance. Which for people who own Bitcoin that is great as it means the current price boom of the past few months will grow more intense as more avenues are opened to allow institutions and big legacy finance to step into crypto.

What stops is that they have no interest in altcoins. Altcoins are extremely risky and could disappear or drop 90% in value and nobody would care. Institutions aren't going to put hundreds of millions of dollars into stuff like that. These aren't people looking to get rich quick by throwing everything they have into some 100 to 1 shots. They're looking for reliable investments that have a high promise of growth. That's Bitcoin, and Ethereum. That is definitely not altcoins. Grayscale offers a few altcoins, and they have almost no money in them compared to their Bitcoin fund, which tells you how much institutions are interested in them.

You question is not a worry at all. Institutions will only come into Bitcoin and Ethereum. When they view the price as being too high they'll stop buying and try to wait for a lower price. They won't go into some random shitcoin.

If institutions decide to buy when the market crash, they must know if that crash will come or they will wait with uncertainty, institutions have huge funds they continue to buy even small amounts when the market is up and buy even more when the market is down, institutions are not thinking the same way because they are also competing on the price.

It can happen for all invetsment place movement, I mean when an investment place increase drastically then it could be accompanied with drastically decreasing price, like now bitcoin is down several thousand dollars in a day and for myself I'm not weird of it, it is common to happen.

More than that, for several times bitcoin price movement haven't met a correction. As you can see the weekly chart, there is no single correection right? And also the daily chart we haven't seen a really correction in the chart. So it's only natural for bitcoin to experience a drastic drop in price, and I guess it's only temporary.

There's now seems to be a civil war amongst investors now and that is Retail investors and the big Institutional investors thanks to the Robinhood gme gamestop scandal and wall street bets.

The small time retail investors are pissed that brokers/exchanges wont allow them to trade while they allow the big whale institutional investors to continue trade on the stock market.

Bitcoin is the currency of the people for the people so isn't it bad for bitcoin to let the big institutions to gobble up all the bitcoins and leave non for the small retail guy  ???

I understand bitcoin is a decentralised currency where no one controls it meaning anyone can buy it no matter how rich they are so that means the bitcoin protocol cant be changed to limit the amount of bitcoins a institution can buy so everyone can get a fair exposure to the btc market?

Otherwise bitcoins will be mostly institution owned and the small retail guy wont get any :o

Bitcoin suppose to be the free currency of the people for the people right instead of jacking up the price so only the rich can afford it.

Bitcoin has its dip price, and we all know the dipping price always increases. And for Bitcoin, we already passed the dip price last year and I think it never touches it again. And don't forget we already pass halving, do you think miner will sell their Bitcoin for cheap with high difficulty to get it? Never..

For 15K or 20K I think this is possible. But for sure if touches it many people will buy it, Based on 2017 and drop about 2 years

Do you think people only buy?? People also sell it. If only buy maybe this scenario is works

Of course, my friend, there are those who are manipulating the market, whether it is large institutions or whales, it is clear, we must swim in the midst of these high waves, I think that what we have to do is just ride the wave, we as individuals can not do much, we have to take advantage of the upward and downward waves We sell with the bullish waves, then buy with the downside, while we enjoy the bitcoin sun.
There are those who do not want the price of Bitcoin to stabilize because they want to profit through these large fluctuations, so I think they do not want the price of Bitcoin to reach $ 100K, although we are making profits through that, but this negatively affects Bitcoin's reputation as an unstable currency.

It's not unlikely to happen, and institutional investors are holding bitcoin for long term so I don't think a price dump is a problem since for sure when it dump they will not panic and instead they might still keep buying. We are not realistic if we think bitcoin will not dump anymore, it's been happening in the past and there's no massive adoption yet so anything could happen.

This institutional investors are buying bitcoin as their reserve, not to sell it right away like day traders or a typical holders.

I believe that wasn't really the case for any possible crash, I believe it was just people taking out profits right now, because everyone made a lot of profit. Think about it this way, you invested 10k into bitcoin, and bought one bitcoin because one bitcoin was 10k at the time, now one bitcoin worths 40k (a week or ten days ago) and you want to just take out the money you put in, what do you do? You sell 10k worth of bitcoin and keep the other 30k in the bitcoin world, basically 0.75 bitcoin if I am not wrong, or something like that.

Now you have invested nothing, if bitcoin becomes 2k you are 2k in profit, so you are fine no matter what happens to bitcoin. There were tons of people who did things like this, it could be with 0.1 bitcoin or could be with 100 bitcoins, but they took out their investment and kept their profits in and that could be the biggest reason why it went down.