What if Bitcoin goes off this Institutionalized expected Bull-Run?

[very_452001]

Everybody is expecting btc to hit 100k this year because of the so called, from all that institutional and hedge fund buying of it that caused this bull btc cycle, and of course you will get 30% healthy corrections in this cycle along the way but:

What if there was no black swan event this year and bitcoin instead of a correction, crashes back to 20k or 15k because there's no more institutions left to buy it?

Institutions are smart people smart money so why they buy at any given market price when they can save and get it cheaper in a correction or a crash?

Everybody saying bitcoin supply is running out but high demand is still there but if thats the case then how bitcoin dropped over 10% today when there's clearly supply for this demand causing it to drop over 10%???

Bitcoin dropped around $7k in a day 

If supply is trickling little drops like a tap then bitcoin price should increase 5k daily right?

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[Wysi]

If institutions decided to cashout then it will create massive drop wherein it would take years for bitcoin to be back on track as it took bitcoin over 3 years to break precious ATH of 2017 because it's not only institutional or whales cashing out but rather users panic selling due to sudden drop which does more damage to the price of bitcoin. But I think we got diversified investment this time so the bull market will go on for a while but honestly I have no idea about today's drop what caused that drop ir if it's a correction which I assume.

[BrewMaster]

Everybody is expecting btc to hit 100k this year

everyone who has checked the history and is extrapolating it is saying $400k+

30% healthy corrections

i never considered 30% drop be healthy!

What if there was no black swan event this year and bitcoin instead of a correction, crashes back to 20k or 15k because there's no more institutions left to buy it?

and what if the blacker swap event this year launched the price to $1 million because there were billions of people buying bitcoin?

Everybody saying bitcoin supply is running out but high demand is still there but if thats the case then how bitcoin dropped over 10% today when there's clearly supply for this demand causing it to drop over 10%???

simply because for a short time, there were more sellers than buyers.
it has nothing to do with "supply running out". that's just a story they tell kids to scare them into panic buying.

If supply is trickling little drops like a tap then bitcoin price should increase 5k daily right?

no it should reach $100 million withing a week.

[very_452001]

If institutions decided to cashout then it will create massive drop wherein it would take years for bitcoin to be back on track as it took bitcoin over 3 years to break precious ATH of 2017 because it's not only institutional or whales cashing out but rather users panic selling due to sudden drop which does more damage to the price of bitcoin. But I think we got diversified investment this time so the bull market will go on for a while but honestly I have no idea about today's drop what caused that drop ir if it's a correction which I assume.

Okay how do we know when institutions decide to cash out?

Lets take grayscale gbtc for example:

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/overview

What data on that link do we monitor to know whether this institution is increasing or decreasing their bitcoin holdings?


Okay we all must know that there will be a inevitable bear market after this bull run to 100k crashing all the way down to 20k unless institutions become hodlers that will hodl bitcoin at whatever high price.

If we have a crash now it be healthy for btc as it will be easy to recover to psychological 35k resistance after another 3 year bear market. If it crashes from 100k down to 20k then it will be much harder to recover to psychological 100k resistance meaning it can take forever to recover to 100k and were stuck in a bear market that seems forever. This is technical analysis on charts long term.

35k can be easily recovered to that resistance, might take a 2 year after bear market to recover to this right?

[20kevin20]

You probably have to stick to the specific institutions' newsletters to find out. At one point, they'll likely publicly announce the sale (or the company's investors are going to be informed about it).

All of these are predictions and probabilities. Most people are tempted to believe either what they like or what a certain celebrity thinks about the future of Bitcoin rather than rationally analyzing the markets and making their own opinion. Out of the 2016-2018 rumors, probably not even 90% have turned to reality.

I honestly doubt there is no more BTC to meet the demand, although I do not have any resource to validate my throughts tbh.

[ChrisPop]

Institutions are smart people smart money so why they buy at any given market price when they can save and get it cheaper in a correction or a crash?

Because the supply is so small. 21,000,000 for a whole planet to save their wealth in Bitcoin is minuscule to say the least.
Secondly, the professionals usually don't trade on weekends and there was a gap to fill on the CMEs.

If supply is trickling little drops like a tap then bitcoin price should increase 5k daily right?

It doesn't work exactly like that. Some institutions like to trade profits along the way and also engineer liquidity to accumulate more. When you're a whale the game is completely different.

[very_452001]

I'm thinking now can Bitcoin beat Yearn.Finance YFI all time high of $43k soon  

[LeGaulois]

Very hard to know how Bitcoin will behave in the following months, but I won't expect the $100k line. People are good at exaggerating about something they really care about, so they can tell you any price, 1 million too.
I wouldn't mind if we get a 30% correction. Yes it will be a good slap in our face but zoom out, the price was about $7,000 in January last year, so in the case of a correction to let's say down to $20,000 it's still a price multiplied by 3 in the space of 1 year. Still very good if you ask me

Institutional investors are generally medium to long term investors, they are not going to start selling now, so you won't see them selling anytime soon. In 2021 we will probably see more of them entering the market so the hype has a good chance to continue in 2021 :p
Don't forget about the retail interest in Bitcoin which is also participating in the demand

I believe that at the moment 10% does not represent much and this drop is almost absorbed. Interesting to see it happened again at 12.00

[Iranus]

No one knows when institutions will cash out the Bitcoin they hold. Already many companies have invested a lot of money in the crypto market as a result of which today we have been able to cross $30k. These companies will never want to cash out without their profit. The fact is that when Bitcoin will cross $50k, governments of different countries will start investing in Bitcoin.

[Harlot]

The most likely scenario here is these big companies instead of hodling it like what they have said is they will trigger a sell-off because they want to take profit and liquidate for cash. These big companies are not here for the long-term hodling of an asset they still here to make profit in order to do some "expansion" for their company as they needed the cash and now seeing news that they bought Bitcoin around 10,000$ I don't see them having any reasons why they won't begin selling it having more than double the profit right now. What's good about this is after they short Bitcoin is they can buy Bitcoin back to maybe at the same price on where they bought it originally or even cheaper which makes it a bad situation for us.

[TGD]

Those institutional companies that invested early or during these pump will not let their money slip easily, they will sure have plans to attract more institutional companies to get in Bitcoin for them to truly earn. It just started that known top companies have invested in Bitcoin so it may not reach the desired amount easily but it may not break the price too soon without them experiencing a more than profit they wanted. If ever they will goes off they surely gained a lot and I think the today's price isn't enough yet for them to do so, they sure have bigger amount goal.

[AmoreJaz]

I'm thinking now can Bitcoin beat Yearn.Finance YFI all time high of $43k soon 

there's nothing to compare btc with this yfi project. yfi got this high price tag because of its manipulators in the market. but ask what is the use case or purpose of this platform? up until now, they are still in beta and dont think they will ever develop their platform. they are now slowly going down, whereas, btc already surpassed 30k. we are now seeing the true colour of yfi

on the note about institutional investors, i dont think they will be cashing out this early. but we dont know their plans, how long are they gonna hold and buy. just be cautious with the market.

[very_452001]

No one knows when institutions will cash out the Bitcoin they hold. Already many companies have invested a lot of money in the crypto market as a result of which today we have been able to cross $30k. These companies will never want to cash out without their profit. The fact is that when Bitcoin will cross $50k, governments of different countries will start investing in Bitcoin.

Wait I though this bull cycle to 100k is fuelled by institutional investors/hedge funds then the next bull market cycle after the 20k 3-4yrs consolidation bear market will be fuelled by governments/sovereigns/royal families?

The most likely scenario here is these big companies instead of hodling it like what they have said is they will trigger a sell-off because they want to take profit and liquidate for cash. These big companies are not here for the long-term hodling of an asset they still here to make profit in order to do some "expansion" for their company as they needed the cash and now seeing news that they bought Bitcoin around 10,000$ I don't see them having any reasons why they won't begin selling it having more than double the profit right now. What's good about this is after they short Bitcoin is they can buy Bitcoin back to maybe at the same price on where they bought it originally or even cheaper which makes it a bad situation for us.

Is there a website showing or tracks how many institutions/hedge funds bought bitcoin at what price? Obviously the big buyers that got in at 10k can sell now with their money tripled but what about those big buyers that bought in at 25k or 30k?

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[hatshepsut93]

Institutions are smart people smart money so why they buy at any given market price when they can save and get it cheaper in a correction or a crash?

People refused to buy at $10k or at $1k because they though that they will just wait for a correction. Now they likely won't have a chance like that ever again. We actually had a dip today, when the price fell to 28k, and it was immediately bought.

Also, if they calculate that Bitcoin will reach certain price, like 100k or even just 50k, there's no point in trying to buy the dip, just buying at current price would net solid profits too.

Everybody saying bitcoin supply is running out but high demand is still there but if thats the case then how bitcoin dropped over 10% today when there's clearly supply for this demand causing it to drop over 10%???

When people say that supply is running out, it just means that the current holders refuse to sell for some reason. Of course it can change. It's not like coins get literally deleted.

[very_452001]

Institutions are smart people smart money so why they buy at any given market price when they can save and get it cheaper in a correction or a crash?

People refused to buy at $10k or at $1k because they though that they will just wait for a correction. Now they likely won't have a chance like that ever again. We actually had a dip today, when the price fell to 28k, and it was immediately bought.

Also, if they calculate that Bitcoin will reach certain price, like 100k or even just 50k, there's no point in trying to buy the dip, just buying at current price would net solid profits too.

Everybody saying bitcoin supply is running out but high demand is still there but if thats the case then how bitcoin dropped over 10% today when there's clearly supply for this demand causing it to drop over 10%???

When people say that supply is running out, it just means that the current holders refuse to sell for some reason. Of course it can change. It's not like coins get literally deleted.

If hodlers refusing to sell then who's supplying the liquidity/volume to buyers to cause that 10% sell off?

Everyone saying btc is capped 21million max. There's some say millions of btc have already been lost. Then you got all these institutions buying all these bitcoins. Then you got that halving last year that gives you less when mining bitcoins so Supply is dry right?

How many btc's do you require to have in your wallet to classed as a whale nowadays and how many of these whales exist including the hedge funds/institutions that bough 1000's of bitcoins?

If you see volume declining on a exchange yet prices go higher that means supply is running out?

[hatshepsut93]

If hodlers refusing to sell then who's supplying the liquidity/volume to buyers to cause that 10% sell off?

Everyone saying btc is capped 21million max. There's some say millions of btc have already been lost. Then you got all these institutions buying all these bitcoins. Then you got that halving last year that gives you less when mining bitcoins so Supply is dry right?

How many btc's do you require to have in your wallet to classed as a whale nowadays and how many of these whales exist including the hedge funds/institutions that bough 1000's of bitcoins?

If you see volume declining on a exchange yet prices go higher that means supply is running out?

When people talk about supply running out, they mean supply available for sale on exchanges.

There was never any strict classification of whales, it's an informal term for "big Bitcoin holder". If the number of UTXO will be growing, maybe in the future even some hundreds of coins will be considered as "whale amount". It's also not so simple as it looks - one big address could belong to many small hodlers in case of a centralized service, and some individual hodlers could own large amounts split across hundreds of addresses.

[very_452001]

Were about to break $1 Trillion market for the 1st that is overall crypto market including altcoins. For bitcoin to hit $100k this year crypto market cap needs to be £2 Trillion by the end of this year with bitcoin taking all the crypto market from alts. If Alts pump too sharing the market with btc then overall crypto market cap needs to be at $3 Trillion if bitcoin is to hit $100k this year.

Alts are pumping now even xrp ripple is pumping even with the SEC case risk against it 

So if Alts pump and have their alt seasons then this will slow the btc journey to 100k?

[btc_angela]

So if Alts pump and have their alt seasons then this will slow the btc journey to 100k?

Well the exponential growth as some point will slow down, but it doesn't mean it's because of the alt season. And remember alts are definitely going to be pump sooner or later but then again, we all know that it can go down hard as well, when the manipulators dump it unexpectedly.

And where are they going to move again? Of course, bitcoin, to the journey to $100k or more might take some time, but who knows, eventually we can reach that in 2021 or even early next year.

[Smartprofit]

Everybody is expecting btc to hit 100k this year because of the so called, from all that institutional and hedge fund buying of it that caused this bull btc cycle, and of course you will get 30% healthy corrections in this cycle along the way but:

What if there was no black swan event this year and bitcoin instead of a correction, crashes back to 20k or 15k because there's no more institutions left to buy it?

Institutions are smart people smart money so why they buy at any given market price when they can save and get it cheaper in a correction or a crash?

Everybody saying bitcoin supply is running out but high demand is still there but if thats the case then how bitcoin dropped over 10% today when there's clearly supply for this demand causing it to drop over 10%???

Bitcoin dropped around $7k in a day 

If supply is trickling little drops like a tap then bitcoin price should increase 5k daily right?

Consider the following scenario ...

Bitcoin price reaches $ 45,000 in February 2021 (but does not reach $ 50,000).  Institutional investors bought Bitcoin at $ 20,000.  They are tempted to lock in their profits.  At the same time, the political crisis in the United States is ending and the situation with the COVID-19 coponavirus pandemic is improving.  Institutional investors sell bitcoins.  Bitcoin price drops to $ 20,000.  After some time (October 2021), the price recovers to $ 30,000...

[very_452001]

Will it be a democratic full sweep? If so will democratic Biden Government go against bitcoin with more regulations? Is Biden cool with bitcoin like Trump was?