Bitcoin Forum

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaFVNBG9-Lk

I wish he is right but I also wonder if he is delusional.

In the above video, minutes 14:28 to 25:25 he speaks of gold being totally replaced by bitcoin as a store of value in the same way that wooden ships were replaced by steel ships. He also gives other examples of this style. Just because something has worked for 5,000 years doesn't mean it won't be replaced by new technology.

He also talks about 50 to 75% of the money going nowadays into bonds, index funds, etc., going into bitcoin in the future because, according to him, it is purchased as a store of value. He estimates that the total of the world's money currently invested in those assets but as a store of value is between $100 trillion and $250 trillion.

That calculation leaves a $15 million price per Bitcoin in today's purchasing power terms.

Bitcoin would become a cyber index of the entire world global economy on the blockchain.

This is full wishful thinking on his side. A quick Google search shows that his company, Microstrategy, owns 70,470 bitcoins. If you multiply this by 15 million, you get the value of 1 trillion dollars. So this is precisely the value that would make his bitcoins worth 1 trillion, which he then proceeds to rationalize (i.e. try to find a rational explanation to come to that). Notice that all of these economic reasonings he come up with could have given 14, 16, 20, whatever trillion as a result, but his prediction happens to be precisely the value that makes him a trillionaire. Big coincidence no?

Lol whales could become richer then Bezos and Gates then...

He's delusional about the majority of the stock and bond markets flowing into Bitcoin. Those aren't stores of value; they are revenue-bearing investments. Bitcoin obviously doesn't replace the need for equity fundraising, dividends, or debt/interest.

The gold argument is stronger, but I'm skeptical it'll be a total replacement. I see them standing alongside one another as store of value assets for a long time to come.

I don't think he's necessarily delusional about $15 million per coin, but I think it's more a function of liquidity and scarcity. In the short term, blow-off tops can reach insane levels for no rational reason. In the long term, contrary to popular belief, for assets to rise in value, the value doesn't need to (at least in whole) come from somewhere else. It's all about supply and demand, which can manifest as higher prices and lower liquidity. As the inflation rate shows, assets can rise in value a lot faster than inflation, which is what purchasing power actually reflects.

Between monetary debasement (which may be reflected more so in asset prices than inflation), low liquidity, and stealing some market share from assets in the store of value and currency categories, I really think multi-million dollar valuations are possible.

This should be true because Bitcoin market cap worth more than half of all existing silver market cap

But will he eat his dick on national television if Bitcoin won't reach this price?


Metal ships are better than wooden ships in pretty much every aspect. The same isn't true for Bitcoin vs gold, there's many differences between them. Bitcoin is relying on electronics, any scenario that disrupts them, like EMP, solar flare, nuclear war and other disasters, would stop Bitcoin. Bitcoin is prone to hacking - if you're not careful, it can be stolen by malware that you get by clicking on sketchy links. Gold is nearly impossible to destroy - Bitcoin is quite easy to lose if you are not using some quality steel plates or have backups in multiple places, which most people don't.

I don't know whether such crazy predictions are feasible, but then today's market looks overpriced in every sector. Look at the TSLA stock. A corporation, with an annual net loss of $1 billion is having a market cap of close to $1 trillion. When a loss making venture such as TSLA can have such a huge market cap, then why can't Bitcoin have a market cap of several trillions? But a market cap of $300 trillion? It sounds impractical for me.

Tesla has actually been posting record profits. They were burning cash in 2019 but now they're up 5 quarters in a row, likely 6 when Q4 numbers come out.

I think people see them as the next Amazon trade. Amazon posted losses for years and years as a young public company before basically taking over the world. From the early days to now AMZN has gained something like 180,000%.

Tesla obviously doesn't have quite the same growth potential but this is a market of greater fools, and TSLA is a crowded trade.

that is not about being delusional or not, it is not even about predicting the bitcoin price. it is all about being seen and heard to gain some publicity even for a short time.

just think about it, some a$$hole whom we haven't ever heard of is now being quoted globally just because he made a random comment about bitcoin price in the future and that was positive.

the worst part is that all of these types of people fill the internet whenever price is rising up like this. remember McAfee? you would have never even heard from them when price was dropping hard. of course in this case he is just advertising himself and his business

It is a fairly large figure, I would like it to come true, although it is not impossible, I think it is quite difficult for it to happen, more in these times, a real figure based on what is happening in the market may reach about $ 100k, with the absolute investment of private companies as they are doing now. It may happen in a few years, right now I do not see that arrival at $ 15M possible.

As you and BrewMaster have mentioned John McAffe I have to remind here that he wasn't so crazy after all. I don't trust him, I think he has the word scam written all over his face but his prediction, although it was done a bit early, too firmly and probably to gain publicity as @BrewMaster says, nowadays doesn't seem so far-fetched.

I think in both cases there is a mixture of what they believe and the character they represent. They believe that bitcoin has a great future, that it will go up in price a lot but also, consciously or unconsciously (probably a mixture of both), they exaggerate their predictions to the maximum. I would say that sometimes they even end up believing their own character.

This is exactly the reason for these speculation, you will find many investors having their predictions with insane amounts and those are nothing but wishful thinking and throwing out a value so that other investors will start investing even if the price crosses a certain valuation thinking that the market goes higher and these big investors will book their profit when the market shows any signs of weakness while the small investors who dreams about further rally gets stuck.

I totally hate price predictions as much as the next guy but I'm pretty sure he's only saying that for better headlines. One thing's for sure though, I almost always cringe on his Twitter posts. There was a time that he tweeted about bitcoin and dragons and some crap. *shudders*

With that said, gold being replaced by bitcoin sometime in the future was always a good possibility for me. Not that gold will be totally 100% replaced, but with bitcoin at the very least taking significant(or majority) market share.

Any one could really make their own views and opinions basing up into those facts or knowledge that they had inserted on.
Yes, technology does evolve and theres no guarantee that old things will not really be replaced by new ones but to compare
and talking about crypto on replacing fiat totally is really an impossible thing. We do even say that $1M/ bitcoin is already on the dream
side then how much more on $15m each?

Being positive towards bitcoin is common but having these kind of presumptions is already on the non realistic side.
No matter how positive we do look at it but we wont really be going into that certain extent.

It's a publicity so that he can get an attention and be known more on cryptocurrency scene, but I don't actually believe on this kind of fallacy since I believe if someone drop a huge numbers future price prediction is doing that for their personal gain although some of the price prediction became reality this days but we need to consider a lot of factor on this.

But for now I'm not convince about Bitcoin replacing gold since it was used as global reserve so it's hard for it to get rid little by little.

Call me crazy but if Bitcoin will succeed as a next global currency and if it still be used after more than 50+ years, then you might achieve something around that amount of 15$mil/btc. There are a lot of "if" in this situation in order to make btc value such a big amount of $ and probably won't happen as such a big scale but who knows. For now Btc might go over 100k$ in this bull run that might be all year long and if that happens we can think that 1mil$/btc can be achieve in future.

I'm not saying that he is insane, though like mk4 mentioned, his tweets are rather cringy, but I was questioning whether he is going to put his money were his mouth is.

He could be just trying to pump Bitcoin and waiting a much lower price than he predicts to dump most of his coins. If he says that Bitcoin will reach $15 million, it should mean that he, as a believer, must hodl his coins until $15 million and only selling if it's absolutely necessary.

Let's see if he follows his own prediction or not.

We two are wishing he is right and hopefully he is not delusional but we must be more realistic and we can only calculate it based on what is happening now, and not on prediction and speculation, this is a high level speculation, Bitcoin is doing great right now but for how long there will be FUDS and correction along the way I prefer taking things based on what's coming not on what I assume will be.

Well, anyone will try to do their best to attract more people into their company, this is just one of the many ways. To me, this is a declaration of an attempt to create monopoly on bitcoin which is pretty bad for the buyers because they will get scalped by the prices.

These wild predictions are cues of an impending market crash.  Not saying that price won't happen, but that's a stupid prediction to be making at this point. 

His larping and optimism will be tested if bitcoin was dumped back to $10k where his position will certainly be on a loss. I speculate he might be one of the first whales to dump because of fear that it might affect Microstrategy negatively hehehe.

They still make wooden boats, sure its a good argument in favor of steel but total replacement never happened.  Same deal with oil and coal, the prior generation is not being wiped out as it often has key reasons in its favor that stand regardless of technology development.   Coal will be used as energy in a hundred years I bet, it has the highest calorific value for transport and is stable over years of storage in most cases but it'll never be #1 energy again.   Thats the better argument, to transition and advancement through efficency, BTC has a long way to go before it can argue itself most efficient.  Forget the price, thats not the determiner of success imo

The problem with targeting gold is that its an element useful in many ways, some we wont even know yet as development will carry on I think.   It cant be replaced as its unique, its not a good way to qualify BTC as succeeding or not.  I dont even see crypto and gold as being in competition, like I said they do different things and have their own advantages.  
  So the target is off, central banks store gold and issue FIAT, its alot easier to say central banking has had its day as #1 monetary system across the world and it has failed to represent capitalism instead they monetize politics.

Of course he will predict such insane price prediction since he is holding huge amount of btc and maybe he wants to create fomo in this bull market who knows if every people in the world wants to own btc then $15m can be easily achieved the only problem if all governments wants to control btc and declare its illegal.     

I don't know how many people would be able to buy bitcoin if the price is that high? In my opinion, not so much. Such a price would only incentivize whales and other big holders to manipulate the market the way they want since only a few people would be able to afford a reasonable amount of Bitcoin.


What happened to being a decentralized and inclusive community? At $15M, only a few people would own bitcoin. I'm considering those low income earners and people in rural areas, how do these people have access to everything bitcoin has to offer?

Michael Saylor was always a bit crazy, dude managed to lose 90% of his companies money before, to stay as the CEO after such a thing is a big achievement if you ask me, and that means we are talking about someone who understands about risks involved with things, and he makes grand claims because that is how he could look great for the investors as well.

If he keeps this up, and keeps investing into bitcoin, and makes this kind of returns for his customers, that means he is going to end up with more and more money from investors, and that is why he makes these claims. Dude was always crazy so I am not shocked that 15 million dollars bitcoin is sensible to him, and I doubt he is lying neither, dude probably believes he is right. I am a bitcoin minimalist as well but 15 million dollars is like a joke, maybe 150k at best if you ask me in short term.

Well that doesn't make sense. Price goes up due to demand. at $15 million it wouldn't be a few people who own Bitcoin, EVERYONE would own bitcoin. Not sure you understand price dynamics. If few people own Bitcoin price is low. More demand higher the price goes.

Obviously he is wrong about how much from those other assets will flow into Bitcoin. All investors aren't going to jump ship on all other investments and pile them into Bitcoin.

Stocks offers shares in companies, companies use them to raise money, you get cash flow in the form of dividends. Bitcoin doesn't replace that stuff.
Bonds offer low risk way to get a steady low stream of income, without the volatility of other markets. Again, Bitcoin doesn't replace this.

I could see some of this money moving to Bitcoin eventually when enough people realize Bitcoin's potential. Most people still don't realize its potential, which is why current prices are nothing compared what could be in the future.

Gold is 10+ trillion right now, global bonds are 100+ trillion, global stocks are 100+ trillion. I don't know how much is in fiat currencies globally but apparently just in USD there is ~37 trillion.

I could reasonably see a trillion each from Gold, bonds, and stocks being shifted into Bitcoin for the purpose of its superior wealth generation dynamics. Throw in maybe a trillion from USD shifted into Bitcoin specifically for the purpose of holding personal savings or corporate treasuries in an asset that will safely gain value over the long term rather than assuredly lose value. In this equation that's 4 trillion moved into Bitcoin from other assets, but of course that money coming in would have a far larger effect on the market cap than just adding 4 trillion to the cap. That might add a million dollars or more to the price. Then of course there's all the money that people aren't moving from other investments, but just putting in their earned income, both retail investors and HNWI's, which would add a bunch more. Add in money shifting from other places, more massive fiat printing over the coming years to deal with the fact that the world has walked itself into financial quagmire for quite a while now, and then add in inflation on top of all this. I could easily see a BTC price of several million dollars by say 2050. Not Saylor's $15 million, but at least a significant portion of that number.

First of all I do not agree with 15 million dollars price neither, that sounds absurd and definitely not realistic at all, it is probably just made up number to get attention. However just to make it easier for people to understand how people could own bitcoin at that stage, there are two methods that you can assume.

Let's say there is bitcoin price at 15 million dollars, how about buying 100 satoshi instead of trying to buy 1 bitcoin? Or get 10k satoshi? I mean people could try to buy bitcoin according to how much money they have, and even 1 satoshi is a decent amount in that situation and would be an investment, so you could go with that. Or the second method, do you really think bitcoin becoming 15 million dollars would mean all the alts would be current price? They would go up too, and you can try to buy 0.1 ETH for example? Or whatever coin you want, whatever amount you want? That would be an option too.

Obviously when someone is making such crazy predictions without much logic behind it, I usually ignore them. But there were a few high quality predictions regarding the future Bitcoin prices recently. One of them was from Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (JPMorgan Chase & Co.). He made a prediction of $146,000 based on a study which compared gold and Bitcoin. Another quality prediction was made by Tom Fitzpatrick (Citigroup Inc.), who predicted $318,000 based on a technical technical analysis of prior highs and lows. And most importantly, these predictions ere made before the current rally.