Bitcoin Forum

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5310296.new#new

User 'Siigari' is taking BTC investments for a supposedly +EV script. The script runs on bustabit, which is a casino with a 1% house edge (hence all bets, including scripts, are inherently -EV). By taking investments under the premise that the script has a positive EV, Siigari is committing fraud.

Since I've moved this to 'scam accusations', I should append this:

I don't think Siigari will run with invested funds. He's merely committing fraud by taking investments and earning a commission from them under false pretenses.

Requesting removal as investing into my method in no way shape or form comes with a guaranteed investment contract.

Investments inherently contain risk, and I state this a few times throughout my literature. I have faith in my method and the hope is gains. I am offering people the opportunity to invest in my method for a very fair return of 5% of the total profits per individual cashing out unrealized gains.

I believe it is important to note that StackGambler, the author of this thread, has invested in my method for 1000 bits. Stack, if you invest in me then post this thread that makes you a hypocrite! I do not understand what you are trying to accomplish other than to defame me because I refused your bet which is unfair and manipulative.

Mods, I do not understand why this is here.

Stop calling a negative EV script a positive EV script. It's really that simple.

I invested 0.001 BTC for fun, and as a gamble. (I'm an avid bustabit player so I'm no stranger to -1% EV bets anyway)

Fair. I will revise my literature to state that I believe my method is +EV and not mention my script is +EV if that will satisfy you.

Nah, just call it -EV instead of trying to play with words in order to manipulate & defraud people for personal gain

There is no gain - instead loss when I have a vested interest in the method. I am currently in for over 0.025 BTC myself. It would take 0.5 BTC worth of realized investment gains to cash out before I am "manipulating and defrauding" at a loss that is more substantial than my own personal loss. I do not believe enough people will invest that amount of money into my method. If they do, then it is because they trust, and I state they can invest however much they desire.

You have been sideline supportive/neutral of this until I declined your bet. Now that I have you are coming at me with posts in an attempt to defame my method. You are a manipulative person, and I am here being honest and forthcoming, by putting my money where my mouth is in my own investment, not investing into a bet which I cannot prove on my own, nor desire to (who goes in blind on things like that?) all because you did not get a bet with me for $5000 or more.

I am not here to rip anybody off. I am here to help people enjoy the benefits of my faith in my method. I believe that people who sell scripts are in it for themselves because they want easy money and put zero money of their own forward to vet the process, or if they do are selective in sharing their data.

I want to share with others. My vestment in this shows my trust.

The bet would have shown that you truly believed in the method. I was supportive/neutral because you made it seem like you were making the bet. Since you decided not to do the bet, it clearly shows that you don't believe in the script as much as you initially made it appear. Now it looks more like a scam to me. Simple as.

The script does not do it all. I am not selling investments into a script, I am selling investments into a method. That was the reason for declining your bet.

Cool, shouldn't be too hard to code it in and get back to me! I'll be waiting

Based on your attitude in this thread and the post in my thread, I wish to no longer do business with you.

Please give me a BTC address for me so I may close your account. I will send your investment amount + profits to that address.

I don't want to divest, so please only send the funds if you are cashing out my account by force

38MA7GmvtQ5ZJkgb3x5aTjJ6UpVVKr8Bmm

I have banned you from conducting business with me for posting this thread in an attempt to slander my name.

Per my terms which are viewable publicly in my discord (https://discord.gg/yiss), Note: Upon a ban, if a user is investing, their deposit + profits will be immediately refunded, minus all applicable incidentals. I am following through with my promise of action. This post has not been edited, and has been visibly public since 1/13/2021. Your date of investment was after that thread was posted, so the terms have not changed. (Notice was posted 1/13/2021 at 11:26 AM. Your investment began on 1/13/2021 at 7:37 PM, so the notice had been posted for 8 hours.)

You have been cashed out. Your total gains were 41.82 bits on 1000 bits. My 5% fee was taken, 2.091 bits. Your total cashout has been processed, with all incidentals paid. https://i.imgur.com/L1wkJK1.png

Address: https://blockstream.info/address/38MA7GmvtQ5ZJkgb3x5aTjJ6UpVVKr8Bmm

Got it, thanks

Not slander, obviously, since nothing I said was untrue. Just a community warning after a new potential scammer was discovered. I hope you update your thread information to the truth soon

Banned from the server for asking for mathematical proof - another sign that it's a scam

Siigari is apparently telling people I left even though he banned me. He also has been deleting links to this thread.

Bump

There's the problem. I've seen all kinds of variations on martingale, but in the end your faith means nothing against math!
You're following the approach of writing a very long post about it (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5310296.0), but none of that changes how the house edge works.
And this is clearly wrong:

Can you show the math behind this +EV? Or are you going to make this about "faith"?

It's not that difficult to make this a honest service, but you'll need to come up with some actual math. For instance (without actually doing the math myself): "there's a 89% chance to get 10% profit, but there's also a 9% chance to lose everything". Do this for different profits, and you're as honest as Investor-based games gets.

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EV+ happens when a casino has a promo/giveaway, not when there's a normal house edge.

Thanks Loyce, couldn't have put it better myself.

He can easily set it up as a script service with a 5% fee (telling people that the game is inherently -EV and that they are expected to lose money). Him saying it's a +EV script is pure fraud.

Here is a screenshot from his Discord shortly before I was banned:

https://i.imgur.com/5N1zS0G.png

A bunch of messages (including a link to this thread) were also apparently deleted.

The screenshot above, I think, nicely encapsulates his delusion. Albeit he seems to be a pretty smart and competent man, which is why it's pretty obvious to me that he's trying to scam investors and skim off a little fee by lying to people.

I should probably add that the whole "I believe in my script" spiel is most likely a lie too. I had no problem with this if he was willing to bet money on his script being +EV, since it would prove he truly and obviously believed what he was saying. His reluctance to do so indicates the whole thing is a ruse.

Certainly, and I show it in my thread. The faith is actually hoping that we get past the initial hump. RNG is still RNG and if we don't get started in a positive way then that is what it is.

Here is a chart (https://i.imgur.com/aF5nNUa.png) showing my expected forecast with potential losses. This is based on the probability that we lose every 9 or so months (approximately every 1.5 million games.) In 4-6 months depending on my actual selected rate of return we have more than doubled up, even at smaller, more reasonable returns (especially so at around 13.8%, which gives a nominal rate of return for excessively low risk.)

The math behind it is posted in my thread. It can also be expressed as ((11/12)^135) = 55,000 to 1 occurrence of seeing a 12 streak that is say, 135 long. So even with a stop loss, if we are making an average of 5-6 bits per win, that lines up with the math above, 5.5 * 55,000 = 302,500 - the initial amount we started with as a stop loss (55,000) = 247,500 net in that time, which is give or take what we are looking at walking away with after 9 months (I think it's closer to 238k in the sheet I linked).

Your math is really, really bad, in so many ways.

For starters, it's not (11/12)^135. It's (1-(0.99/12))^135, since you need to factor in the 1% house edge.

More importantly, getting the base odds isn't how you calculate it at all. A 1 in 55,000 chance doesn't mean it'll bust in 55,000 games. Not even close. In fact, any basic simulator will tell you that it takes about 950,000 games on average to get a streak of 135 games under 12x. It's trivial to calculate, really. 950,000 games is less than a year. Given your uber-slow gambling speed (5% to 25% a month) yet your high chance of busting (expected bust is in less than one year), this looks like a horrible bet for 'investors'. Not to mention the 5% fee you charge them, which fucks them over even further.

Extremely far from EV+.

You met with a 'financial advisor' and a 'statistician'... for this? LOL

If that's the formula you want to use then you made the odds even better.

I am done with this thread. There's nothing left for me to produce. I have shown my math, you have shown yours. I guess we just agree to disagree.

That being said you cannot state that I am a scammer or a fraudster. Nothing I am doing is defrauding anyone from their money, because I show all of the indicators that this is still a gamble. If my method works, then great! If it doesn't, then we are all out money together.

Please stop your witch-hunt. Also stop having your buddies DM people in my Discord. That's rude. I don't come into your house and whisper to all of your friends lies about you. I would appreciate it if you not do it in mine.

...It's almost as if you didn't read the post.

Sigh. Delusion can be as entertaining as it is frustrating to watch.

Wrong. There is no such thing as 'your math' or 'my math'. There is math. Period. Yours is just incorrect. It's made up.

You're defrauding people by claiming a -EV method is +EV.

I'll do what's in my power to warn people. If I know you're scamming people, have the power to save a few people, and choose not to, then that makes me just as bad as you.

I just wanted you to do the math for yourself. If it takes me approx. 950,000 games to reach a 135 streak on average as you say, and I can return 15 (the middle between 25 and 5) then let's shoot for that, and I'll show you (https://i.imgur.com/KGmL6kf.png) that in less than 6 months I can more than double my initial investment.

Pretty neat, huh? If you calculate it your way as you did above, with (1-(0.99/12))^135, it's actually closer to 1 in 1.5 million games (0.0000089), as I previously suggested.

What are you talking about? First it was 5.5, now it's 15 all of a sudden? First it was 55,000, now you agree with my 950,000?

Take a long look in the mirror. You're a gambling addict using unsound math to justify your delusion, and you're defrauding other people in the process.

Here, I'll help you out. Making sims is easy. I'm sure you can plug in your own script numbers and reach the same conclusions I'm coming to.


This will, in under 5 minutes, tell you how many games it takes to bust you (135 games under 12x) over 10,000 game chains. Hey, if it takes you 8 months to bust, and you are expected to double up every 6 months, then yes, your script would be +EV - but I highly doubt you're not fucking up the numbers again, as you've done every step of the way thus far...

That's using your math, dude.

The '6 months' was your claim...

Seriously, stop replying in 5 seconds. Download the code. Run it, understand it. Think for a little bit. I want you to see your delusion. I know it's unlikely, but deep down I'm hoping you're not a scammer and that you're some misguided soul.

I have run the code, you are angry that I declined your bet. I have run simulations and looked at the facts of bustabit and done my own homework over a three week period now. I would not have put 0.025+ of my own BTC in this if I didn't have the numbers straight first.

You have to, and now you want to prove me incorrect despite even your own math showing you that I can make a profit, reset bets and then lose a little before continuing.

Really man, I'm not the one with a problem here. Everything I have said in this thread aligns perfectly with everything I have said in my thread, and I am not going to deviate away from it because the math shows true. That's why there's nothing left for me to explain here, except that *I HOPE* it does not bust in the short term, and we reach the profits I have advertised. I even state that in my Discord before people invest! There is a chance for my method to be knocked out before making it, and I alert people to the fact that this is has risk involved!

Will you PLEASE stop harassing me now?

Your math is already wrong, as I proved several times above. I even tried to help you with the code. Horse to water, sadly.

You can block me on here if you wish, or click the little X tab in the corner of your browser. I'll continue to warn people about scammers on bustabit as I've been doing for a long time.

I'd highly recommend you stop defrauding people from my community. Immediately.

As if by divine intervention, a few minutes ago, Yisserati's "+EV script" busted after bustabit broke the record for the longest streak of games without a 12x, as was expected.

It's probably the most poetic moment I've been blessed enough to witness.

https://i.imgur.com/CfuumB9.png

The math always evens out in the end.

Holy shit, this was a fantastic proof of your math, stackgambler.  Glad we didn't have to wait months for the proof.  Sad about frenchbull and allgasnobrakes tho.

Empirical proof was not necessary to see that the mathematical certainty of a house edge results in a long-term loss.

Anyone that tells you that you can run a script or some strategy to transform a -ev bet into a +ev bet is lying. Probabilities do not change simply because you bet here or there in different ways: with every single bet, there is a statistical loss, period.

While sad it did bust in the short term, this is no excuse for the high level of personal information harvesting and doxxing that Stack has involved himself with for the past hour or so, and shared on his discord (https://discord.gg/bustabit).

This is absolutely abhorrent, especially considering I cashed him out. Despicable actions from someone when I stated high and low that there was risks involved with this.

Your name (David Pietz) is in your Bitcointalk thread (which you posted as KYC for some reason). I've shared nothing beyond that or what was already made public. Sadly I've had to ban a bunch of people from my bustabit server who have taken the doxxing too far. They are all extremely mad that someone tried stealing money from us. I get their sentiment, but personal info is personal info. Zero tolerance for that kind of stuff.

You should probably refund the people you defrauded though. I heard one of them is looking to take action. Also, just a reminder, bustabit is illegal in most US states.

Let it be known that you would have had to keep your winning streak from before the sudden loss for 16 times as long in order to recoup the losses.

You're looking at over 116000 games, and that's not even considering the part where you're statistically losing every single bet.
With the 1% house edge, this is the result you're looking at: E(X)¹¹⁶⁰⁰⁰ = 4×10^-507

Before you posted this, I made an announcement that anyone that was not involved in high level toxicity, threatened legal action and/or doxxing would be repaid.

https://i.imgur.com/xSZ6pBi.png

I have approached these four individuals stating I would like to repay them, despite them understanding there was the opportunity to lose all of their bits.

Your inability to recognize that has caused me to report your discord server to Discord Trust & Safety, and I have reported you personally.

I am closing my program now, and this was the last straw for me at an attempt to gamble, even though I believe in the long run I could make it out positive. Some others crashed as well, and I don't want that to be me again in the future.

But hey, I'll still be around here to discuss all things bitcoin as always :)

Thanks everyone for your support.

PS: Discord can read deleted messages.

https://i.imgur.com/UQjWePg.png

lol, 'threaten legal action'? So, after you defraud people, people who... you know, report you for fraud... those are the ones who get scammed?

None of this is my business, but since you want to spread false allegations about me and my server, I guess I'll take a more personal interest and will try to help out the people who got scammed. I'll help them file the relevant police reports etc. I've been spending the last 30 minutes banning people who were spamming your wife's photos, and I come to see this shit. God damn, the nerve on people.

Good thing you busted. Leave and never come back. Try to pay everyone back without the law having to make you. It's the easiest route.

Take this opportunity to learn some statistics: I think it would help you greatly in your life. If you truly believe that your strategy would have been positive in the long run then it is merely a case of Hanlon's razor. :)

Here, maybe this module will help: Mean (expected value) of a discrete random variable (https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability/random-variables-stats-library/random-variables-discrete/v/expected-value-of-a-discrete-random-variable)

My nephew tells me that Sal is a pretty good teacher. If he can explain it to a child, anyone can learn.

Thanks man, I'll have a read.

I tried to teach him basic casino EV. He's a smart man. It all went over his head. Hanlon's razor was my initial assumption, but after learning that David clearly isn't stupid, the only remaining conclusion is this was all a fraud attempt. Hell, if he actually thought it was +EV, the script would be back on tomorrow. It won't be.

Not a word about me huh buddy.
You've been an absolute ass towards me, rejected every simple fact that I had laid out to you as to a child.
I literally spoonfed you because your logic was broken and I wanted to help you and you took everything I said as a personal attack or as if I wanted to get something out of you instead.

The absolute delusion, pride and stupidity that takes the better of gamblers is hilarious mate.
You lost more than yours and peoples money. You lost your mind.

I made you a smilulator to speed-test, you could've verified it all.

Let me lay out the facts once again:

- The house edge is not relevant in the way an earlier reply stated.
  Every game takes an equally (lesser) random part of an absolutely random SHA256 hash.
  This makes the probability to a bust which is absolutely the same for every separate game and there is no relationship between past games.
  "Skipping" is retarded.

- Generating a (wager) curve from a "magic constant" creates a curve that will not line up with the requirement to recover your sum of losses.
  You will spend too little or too large.

- Your script, is in fact, EV+ if you get the wagers correct, to recover or +1, for every recovery cycle.
   However that's not a selling point nor proves survivability because your hard boundaries are your
    - Bankroll
    - table limit or max profit

Here's another piece of advise. Fire your "personal financial advisor" and "statistician".
You're giving a few people their losses back but not a word nor a cent nor a "thank you" to me, for anything I've given you.

I had already given up, there's no arguing against ignorance.

That's a nice introduction to the concept of a house edge and chance :D

That's what all gamblers believe, and it's what makes them lose everything. Any "strategy" works, until it busts.