Requesting DT to take a look at Siigari (defrauding investors)

[StackGambler]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5310296.new#new

User 'Siigari' is taking BTC investments for a supposedly +EV script. The script runs on bustabit, which is a casino with a 1% house edge (hence all bets, including scripts, are inherently -EV). By taking investments under the premise that the script has a positive EV, Siigari is committing fraud.

[StackGambler]

Since I've moved this to 'scam accusations', I should append this:

I don't think Siigari will run with invested funds. He's merely committing fraud by taking investments and earning a commission from them under false pretenses.

[Siigari]

Requesting removal as investing into my method in no way shape or form comes with a guaranteed investment contract.

Investments inherently contain risk, and I state this a few times throughout my literature. I have faith in my method and the hope is gains. I am offering people the opportunity to invest in my method for a very fair return of 5% of the total profits per individual cashing out unrealized gains.

I believe it is important to note that StackGambler, the author of this thread, has invested in my method for 1000 bits. Stack, if you invest in me then post this thread that makes you a hypocrite! I do not understand what you are trying to accomplish other than to defame me because I refused your bet which is unfair and manipulative.

Mods, I do not understand why this is here.

[StackGambler]

Requesting removal as investing into my method in no way shape or form comes with a guaranteed investment contract.

Investments inherently contain risk, and I state this a few times throughout my literature. I have faith in my method and the hope is gains. I am offering people the opportunity to invest in my method for a very fair return of 5% of the total profits per individual cashing out unrealized gains.

I believe it is important to note that StackGambler, the author of this thread, has invested in my method for 1000 bits. Stack, if you invest in me then post this thread that makes you a hypocrite! I do not understand what you are trying to accomplish other than to defame me because I refused your bet which is unfair and manipulative.

Mods, I do not understand why this is here.

Stop calling a negative EV script a positive EV script. It's really that simple.

I invested 0.001 BTC for fun, and as a gamble. (I'm an avid bustabit player so I'm no stranger to -1% EV bets anyway)

[Siigari]

Fair. I will revise my literature to state that I believe my method is +EV and not mention my script is +EV if that will satisfy you.

[StackGambler]

Fair. I will revise my literature to state that I believe my method is +EV and not mention my script is +EV if that will satisfy you.

Nah, just call it -EV instead of trying to play with words in order to manipulate & defraud people for personal gain

[Siigari]

Fair. I will revise my literature to state that I believe my method is +EV and not mention my script is +EV if that will satisfy you.

Nah, just call it -EV instead of trying to play with words in order to manipulate & defraud people for personal gain

There is no gain - instead loss when I have a vested interest in the method. I am currently in for over 0.025 BTC myself. It would take 0.5 BTC worth of realized investment gains to cash out before I am "manipulating and defrauding" at a loss that is more substantial than my own personal loss. I do not believe enough people will invest that amount of money into my method. If they do, then it is because they trust, and I state they can invest however much they desire.

You have been sideline supportive/neutral of this until I declined your bet. Now that I have you are coming at me with posts in an attempt to defame my method. You are a manipulative person, and I am here being honest and forthcoming, by putting my money where my mouth is in my own investment, not investing into a bet which I cannot prove on my own, nor desire to (who goes in blind on things like that?) all because you did not get a bet with me for $5000 or more.

I am not here to rip anybody off. I am here to help people enjoy the benefits of my faith in my method. I believe that people who sell scripts are in it for themselves because they want easy money and put zero money of their own forward to vet the process, or if they do are selective in sharing their data.

I want to share with others. My vestment in this shows my trust.

[StackGambler]

Fair. I will revise my literature to state that I believe my method is +EV and not mention my script is +EV if that will satisfy you.

Nah, just call it -EV instead of trying to play with words in order to manipulate & defraud people for personal gain

There is no gain - instead loss when I have a vested interest in the method. I am currently in for over 0.025 BTC myself. It would take 0.5 BTC worth of realized investment gains to cash out before I am "manipulating and defrauding" at a loss that is more substantial than my own personal loss. I do not believe enough people will invest that amount of money into my method. If they do, then it is because they trust, and I state they can invest however much they desire.

You have been sideline supportive/neutral of this until I declined your bet. Now that I have you are coming at me with posts in an attempt to defame my method. You are a manipulative person, and I am here being honest and forthcoming, by putting my money where my mouth is in my own investment, not investing into a bet which I cannot prove on my own, nor desire to (who goes in blind on things like that?) all because you did not get a bet with me for $5000 or more.

I am not here to rip anybody off. I am here to help people enjoy the benefits of my faith in my method. I believe that people who sell scripts are in it for themselves because they want easy money and put zero money of their own forward to vet the process, or if they do are selective in sharing their data.

I want to share with others. My vestment in this shows my trust.

The bet would have shown that you truly believed in the method. I was supportive/neutral because you made it seem like you were making the bet. Since you decided not to do the bet, it clearly shows that you don't believe in the script as much as you initially made it appear. Now it looks more like a scam to me. Simple as.

[Siigari]

The bet would have shown that you truly believed in the method. I was supportive/neutral because you made it seem like you were making the bet. Since you decided not to do the bet, it clearly shows that you don't believe in the script as much as you initially made it appear. Now it looks more like a scam to me. Simple as.

The script does not do it all. I am not selling investments into a script, I am selling investments into a method. That was the reason for declining your bet.

[StackGambler]

The bet would have shown that you truly believed in the method. I was supportive/neutral because you made it seem like you were making the bet. Since you decided not to do the bet, it clearly shows that you don't believe in the script as much as you initially made it appear. Now it looks more like a scam to me. Simple as.

The script does not do it all. I am not selling investments into a script, I am selling investments into a method. That was the reason for declining your bet.

Cool, shouldn't be too hard to code it in and get back to me! I'll be waiting

[Siigari]

Based on your attitude in this thread and the post in my thread, I wish to no longer do business with you.

Please give me a BTC address for me so I may close your account. I will send your investment amount + profits to that address.

[StackGambler]

Based on your attitude in this thread and the post in my thread, I wish to no longer do business with you.

Please give me a BTC address for me so I may close your account. I will send your investment amount + profits to that address.

I don't want to divest, so please only send the funds if you are cashing out my account by force

38MA7GmvtQ5ZJkgb3x5aTjJ6UpVVKr8Bmm

[Siigari]

Based on your attitude in this thread and the post in my thread, I wish to no longer do business with you.

Please give me a BTC address for me so I may close your account. I will send your investment amount + profits to that address.

I don't want to divest, so please only send the funds if you are cashing out my account by force

38MA7GmvtQ5ZJkgb3x5aTjJ6UpVVKr8Bmm

I have banned you from conducting business with me for posting this thread in an attempt to slander my name.

Per my terms which are viewable publicly in my discord, Note: Upon a ban, if a user is investing, their deposit + profits will be immediately refunded, minus all applicable incidentals. I am following through with my promise of action. This post has not been edited, and has been visibly public since 1/13/2021. Your date of investment was after that thread was posted, so the terms have not changed. (Notice was posted 1/13/2021 at 11:26 AM. Your investment began on 1/13/2021 at 7:37 PM, so the notice had been posted for 8 hours.)

You have been cashed out. Your total gains were 41.82 bits on 1000 bits. My 5% fee was taken, 2.091 bits. Your total cashout has been processed, with all incidentals paid. https://i.imgur.com/L1wkJK1.png

Address: https://blockstream.info/address/38MA7GmvtQ5ZJkgb3x5aTjJ6UpVVKr8Bmm

[StackGambler]

Got it, thanks

Not slander, obviously, since nothing I said was untrue. Just a community warning after a new potential scammer was discovered. I hope you update your thread information to the truth soon

[StackGambler]

Banned from the server for asking for mathematical proof - another sign that it's a scam

Siigari is apparently telling people I left even though he banned me. He also has been deleting links to this thread.

[StackGambler]

Bump

[LoyceV]

I have faith in my method

There's the problem. I've seen all kinds of variations on martingale, but in the end your faith means nothing against math!
You're following the approach of writing a very long post about it, but none of that changes how the house edge works.
And this is clearly wrong:

Screenshot from his Discord server's information channel:

Fair. I will revise my literature to state that I believe my method is +EV and not mention my script is +EV if that will satisfy you.

Can you show the math behind this +EV? Or are you going to make this about "faith"?

It's not that difficult to make this a honest service, but you'll need to come up with some actual math. For instance (without actually doing the math myself): "there's a 89% chance to get 10% profit, but there's also a 9% chance to lose everything". Do this for different profits, and you're as honest as Investor-based games gets.

EV+ happens when a casino has a promo/giveaway, not when there's a normal house edge.

[StackGambler]

Thanks Loyce, couldn't have put it better myself.

He can easily set it up as a script service with a 5% fee (telling people that the game is inherently -EV and that they are expected to lose money). Him saying it's a +EV script is pure fraud.

Here is a screenshot from his Discord shortly before I was banned:



A bunch of messages (including a link to this thread) were also apparently deleted.

The screenshot above, I think, nicely encapsulates his delusion. Albeit he seems to be a pretty smart and competent man, which is why it's pretty obvious to me that he's trying to scam investors and skim off a little fee by lying to people.

[StackGambler]

I should probably add that the whole "I believe in my script" spiel is most likely a lie too. I had no problem with this if he was willing to bet money on his script being +EV, since it would prove he truly and obviously believed what he was saying. His reluctance to do so indicates the whole thing is a ruse.

[Siigari]

Can you show the math behind this +EV? Or are you going to make this about "faith"?

It's not that difficult to make this a honest service, but you'll need to come up with some actual math. For instance (without actually doing the math myself): "there's a 89% chance to get 10% profit, but there's also a 9% chance to lose everything". Do this for different profits, and you're as honest as Investor-based games gets.

EV+ happens when a casino has a promo/giveaway, not when there's a normal house edge.

Certainly, and I show it in my thread. The faith is actually hoping that we get past the initial hump. RNG is still RNG and if we don't get started in a positive way then that is what it is.

Here is a chart showing my expected forecast with potential losses. This is based on the probability that we lose every 9 or so months (approximately every 1.5 million games.) In 4-6 months depending on my actual selected rate of return we have more than doubled up, even at smaller, more reasonable returns (especially so at around 13.8%, which gives a nominal rate of return for excessively low risk.)

The math behind it is posted in my thread. It can also be expressed as ((11/12)^135) = 55,000 to 1 occurrence of seeing a 12 streak that is say, 135 long. So even with a stop loss, if we are making an average of 5-6 bits per win, that lines up with the math above, 5.5 * 55,000 = 302,500 - the initial amount we started with as a stop loss (55,000) = 247,500 net in that time, which is give or take what we are looking at walking away with after 9 months (I think it's closer to 238k in the sheet I linked).