Bitcoin Forum

The last ath 20k bull market back in dec 2017, btc has hit 14k support from ath 20k five times before finally breaking 14k support on the 6th time it hit it. From there it was end of the bull market entering the bear market. It took about a month to break the 14k support on the 6th time

Fast forward to today are we seeing something similar today with the same winter months like back in 2017/18, everything looks the same except everyone now is saying this is early stages of the bull market run by big institutions. If that's the case then it should not break below the 30k support right ??? We can see btc has hit 30k support twice from ath 42k. So after another month from 42k ath are we are going to break 30k support around 7th feb to enter a bear market like last time?

This bull market is really not going to be the same as before. The bears are likely to be quite active.

Yes, surely at one point we gonna enter bear market but answering when, is mere prediction.
As coin base premium is in negative which means coinbase whales has stopped buying BTC at this moment like they were buying when it hit $20k,$30k,$42k because at that time it was around +$60 continuously.

Yes,so I think BTC is gonna come below $30k soon but it surely gonna rise like a rocket .

No bear market soon.

It's true , "History repeats" and also reality about crypto is : correction needs to take a bullish rally. We can just monitor every indicators to watch out which one is going to be done in the upcoming days. But if bitcoin can't make it above $30k zone, panic sellers maybe rushed to cashout their profits and on the other hand, more institutions or crazy bitcoiners will take that as an oppertunity.  Just hope to see a new ATH which will be more than $42k zone.

The bull market this year compared to the end of 2017 has many differences.  The crypto market this year has been influenced by really serious accidents, Covid 19 caused a serious economic downturn, suspicion of unemployment crisis, rising evils, outbreak of poverty.  This is the right condition for whales to move and invade the market.  Bitcoin value shows that trend, it will continue to move the next ladder.
Bitcoin will be the main commodity for the competition of corporations competing to increase their benefits after the economic and commercial stagnation due to covid 19.

Two cycles are different as the adoption of bitcoin, cryptocurrency and the developments of blockchain technology are bigger now. Four years ago, they are something sounds promising for the future. But now, 4 years later, the future for massive adoption of blockchain technology is still far but closer very much. Many institutes invested in bitcoin and governments break their opinion and attacks on bitcoin in the past, to start developments for their CBDCs.

It means a lot for bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Governments would not do this if they don't see pressure to change from bitcoin. They must change to slow down the adoption of bitcoin.

If you want to make comparison between 2 cycles, please compare the marketcap and the capital needed to pump the crypto market in next one year. It would be a huge capital requirement compares to 2017 and 2018 bull years.

The complex market conditions are different than in 2018.

A month ago, we were cheering a $15k Bitcoin. Now we are whining that Bitcoin is 'only' $30k and what will gonna do in this bearish market. I'm calm, and even I find it normal if there is some drop to $25k or $20k. It will give me a chance to buy some more for the long game.

You're totally assuming that the exact same thing will happen this year. While history sure does repeat itself sometimes, it  could definitely not be the case in this bull market. I mean, bitcoin wouldn't be like: "oh damn I broke below the 30k support. welp, I guess I have no choice but to go full bear market now with zero chance for a rebound! See you in the next halving!"

Obviously everyone knows that a bear market follows a bull market however most people are saying this is early stages of a bull market caused by big institutions. Are these people right?

What you mean coinbase premium is negative? Do you mean there was a $60 premium over spot market price of btc and if so how come I dont see this premium in coinbase pro and where do you see this live premium data?

Bitcoin hit below 30k yesterday that is a little above $29k before making it way back to 30k and above, if you study the market movement closely you will discover bitcoin is gradually declining in upward movement and on a steady downward movement which indicate one thing that is the end of the bull run and a new phase of bitcoin price correction in a downward manner.

This bull is not even last a year while the 2017 bull last more than 2 years with a momentum built from many previous years. I do not expect much from this bull but the current market can help me to earn some of the money to keep the wolf from the door since covid 19 has hit my family very hard.

Even in the bear market, you are able to make money with short positions

Comparing market caps cannot be done unless you say that we are coming to end of bull market now then we can do a proper comparison and if its the end of the bull market now then the analysis is 2017/18 & 2020/21 are both very similar!

There is a clear case here, the bitcoin market of before and now are arrant different, and maybe history is likely to repeat itself again. Back in 2017/18 there wasn't much investors even though retailers flooded the bull-run market, but that could be reasons we do not have a longer bull market compare to 2020/21. For bitcoin hitting $30k as the support several times shouldn't made it seem to repeat itself again becasue the current market is been infiltrated by institutional investors and not just retailers.  

If it breaks 30k support then what makes you say that we wont wont enter another long-term bear market till the next halving in 2024 where we can retest ATH 42k resistance near the end of 2024 and double from there to nearly 100k in early 2025?

If that is the case bitcoin will be in a strange paradox where history repeats itself over and over like a repeating pump and dump that doesn't look good for btc.

On the other hand, what makes you say that the opposite can't happen whereas we just should through the roof like we didn't drop from 41k to 30k? I never said that what you're saying can't happen, because it's definitely possible. But my obvious point was, we don't have a single freakin clue what's going to happen.

you are totally confusing the times here, this is like 2017 but too far away from reaching the 2018 levels. price right now at $30k is like price back in 2017 at $2k and when the price first went above the ATH of that time and reached twice that meaning it went from $1200 to $2400 then fell down hard and stayed stagnant for a while before it continued heading to $5k.

that's what we have right now. price went up twice the previous ATH from $20k to $40k and fell down hard to $30k and now it is getting ready to reach $50k.

This is also what I'm planning, I will also buy more during the dip so that I can still make future bull run profitable too.

Just don't panic when its price suddenly go down, there's always good in the bad so just chill out and plan your next move. But it is probably not the same when bitcoin undergo bear market right now, it will not be the same like before in 2017-2018. However, don't be too confident and make this bull run profitable for you.

Bitcoin is complex, volatile, and unpredictable, just help yourself become effective, observant and improve in the market.

Actually I also had a similar thought process like you. In fact the moment we broke the 20EMA on the daily chart I was pretty much sure that we are going towards 27000 range but somehow there was a such a heavy bullish momentum around that area that we couldn't even stay there for an hour. I think heavy institution buying around that area has ensured that it creates an mental Barrier around that point. but primarily we will just need a huge volume to break that barrier. If we break 28k we are very well into a bear zone otherwise we are just waiting for another leg up.

Both the bullish and the bearish will never be the same though some people consider the cryptocurrency market to be a replicate market which they actually misapprehend that the market did not by any chance replicate the previous market trend but replicate the previous season (after bullish, correction).
Having said that, the bearish need tobe active sometime before it will be bullish again

I feel sorry for what happened to your family and I hope things will be better soon. But just to clarify, the bull lasted for more than two years way back 2017? Is it the bullish or bearish market? As far as I remember, bullish market lasted for a year only, referring to the actual increase at a high rate in the market price of cryptos. Unlike with the recent ATH wherein it started in the last quarter of the previous year, if I'm not mistaken, but things ended up almost the same ; ATH was announced, then price downfall occurred. This won't prove any pattern in this market but simply displays unpredictable occurrence of only two outcomes; downfall and uprise of the market price.

Im looking at the btc chart:

It reach a new ATH back then at $3k on Jun 2017 before dipping back down to £2k a month later in July which is a 33% dip (a normal correction) before heading towards 5k six weeks later.

Back then we had segwit adoption and there was also that bitcoin cash hard fork meaning a free air drop of bitcoin cash to btc holders that gave that bullish momentum back then.

Whats bullish news is coming for btc in 2021? Any news of the lighting newtork?

A 33% correction off $42k ATH is at 27-28k, if this is indeed a bull market then we should bounce from this 27-28k sharply making higher highs and higher lows from there. Only time will tell.

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If it does end up copying like 2017/18 then Bitcoin will become very predictable indeed, and if it does become predictable then volatility will flatten out boring and you will only see a few volatility spikes on those predictable certain dates!

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Nice analysis basing off on past events but I would tell you this that it isn't guaranteed that those things will happen again.We might see some patterns or similarities but doesn't

mean that it would be precisely happening on what we are currently facing or seeing on.Market is unpredictable and that's why I don't really look past into those events but somehow

you can really make out some comparison which I do agree upon about the bull movements of 2017/2018 compared to 2020/present day events. Best thing to do?
Play with those moving prices and don't bother on what are the things that might happen ahead.Bearish or bullish it doesn't matter.

In 2017 the price trippled in a span of weeks, this time it took us months to quadruple in price. The crash is also not as sharp, when the $20k started crashing it dipped below $10k very quickly, but now we only have a ~25% correction.

Don't get me wrong, the current chart looks quite dangerous, could easily be a bear market and a popped bubble, but there's also a chance that it was still only a correction and the bull run will continue.

This is truly remarkable but the word of unpredictable is still there we can surely speculate that the price of $30,000 USD is the support price for Bitcoin I think correction may kick in  but that kind of price is still a large amount,

That is why I have already bought a decent amount of Bitcoin and let it sit on my wallet and a small amount for trading BTC and ETH I really think that the price will sure create waves going back and forth to the price of $30,000 USD.

actually both of them were in mid August not in June. also you are forgetting that we had the split scare which was a lot stronger than the "adoption". if anything it was preventing the bullish momentum.
also we saw the biggest rise after the bcash airdrop meaning in September and following months.

we don't need some arbitrary news to call it "bullish". bitcoin is bullish when its adoption grows and it has been growing significantly so far.

correct and it did go from $42k to $28.8k which is 31.5%

not at all. the bounce is always from that bottom like what we had when price jumped back up from $28.8 to $35k the next day. but it has never led to bigger rises immediately. it has always taken some time because the bitcoin market is a healthy market and in a healthy market (unlike pump and dumps) every round starts with an accumulation then a rise. you can't just go from rise to correction then back to rise again right away. we have rise, small corrections, rise, big correction, accumulation, big rise again.

While I appreciate your efforts for this informative post but we cannot expect the same everytime and if you notice last time the bull run was for entire crypto market but this time it's limited to bitcoin primarily and few altcoins. This bull run the crypto and bitcoin market is more mature and saturated as they will not be dumping for a minor dump like they did last time. I don't think bull run will end so early.

That is most likely what would happen in the bitcoin market price, but if the support break at 30k$ it could probably go even lower which I hope so to reinvest some again in bitcoin.

It would continue to dump around 20k$ if the support breaks since the market would probably panic sell for short-term investors, but it's probably a good investment already for low volume.

But still, there are so many factors happening that could possibly affect the market price of bitcoin but we can't accurately predict what could happen exactly, it could easily end up differently from what happened in 2017.

Okay looks like bull market has resumed thanks to the lack of trust in the stock market where robin hood investors lost faith in the stock market where's there's a lot of market manipulation there so I think they coming over to bitcoin now because its decentralised which is more trust worthy.

Were not far from 42k resistance now if we break that then consider bull market train has resumed the journey  8)

The last bull run was actually moved by new Investors who came to know Bitcoin and what it offers, and because it is a new technology to many people then, it attracted a lot of attention, and when the market dumped, it was huge because many pulled out their funds even at loss, but the current bull run is quite different because it was pushed by a new investors who are known as institutional investors, these investors saw a potential in Bitcoin and went for it, thus even when the market corrects, it will only take a little while before it keeps going again, and together with some platforms adopting it for payment options, Bitcoin saw a new ATH. Also, although it might be hard predicting the price of Bitcoin, thus we have understoodd that, a new type of investors are now Interested in Bitcoin and therefore the future is very promising. Lastly, bear market is part of the market cycle but I doubt if anyone knows when exactly it will happen and in as much as the market can't be predicted thus we can't be certain how the bear market will be or how huge it will be.

We all wants the price to keep being bullish, so no one is going to tell you that the price will go down into bear market because they don’t want to be negative on what the future is bringing. I am being positive too, and the market has been going up and down since and I can’t really predict for you whether that 42,000 dollars price will be crossed, or not.

This week the price has gotten to a low of 30,000 dollars and now it has got back up to 38,000+ dollars and might soon be getting to 40,000 again at any time soon. But, it’s good to do what you think it’s best for you, you can sell some coins and leave the rest of you have made enough profit. Still, you must need to remember that history may repeat itself but not with exact fluctuations.

For my understanding about the current bitcoin market, it's different from the past. Many people now invest in bitcoin including those millionaires, billionaires and huge companies which still supporting the value of bitcoin now not to fall sharply. Although there are several corrections in bitcoins price but still it will continue to increase.

it seems that only people who are looking for temporary profits want to decline because they are aiming like that because it is indeed a short term trend and benefits a lot from it.
but everyone will clearly see that there will continue to be improvements and will also have an impact on the altcoin which is very much awaited by many of course.
positive attitude in any case is necessary as well as in situations like this.



The decline has even reached $ 29K and could quickly return to a positive and increasing direction, but it has happened several times which indicates that bitcoin doesn't want to go down but wants to increase. all now could not with certainty determine what would happen because the movement was so fast.
because the trend is good it will not be impossible for bitcoin to reach $ 40K.
agree, that what the decision is up to us, but do not miss to be able to receive from the increase in many ways, for example selling other tokens for exchange. opportunity, don't waste it.

I think almost the same thing repeated last year before bitcoin climbed to this height. It is not same spit of support though but I think I remember bitcoin hitting $10,000 several times and also $12,000 area several too. Yes bull don't just start without breaking key support areas.

We've just entered the q1 of 2021 if we refer to the history repeat itself, then the peak of the price will be reached by the end of the year in q4. So, nothing to worry about in the bear market, $30k is strong support, and it will take an unusual event to pull the price below $25k. Meanwhile, the price still moving sideways after the recent spike up, the price doesn't suppose to always increase all the time, if the price decline, then considers it as the discount time to accumulate more coins.

Maybe it is just a coincidence that the market price again fell at the first quarter of this year. Maybe it is just that observable simply because of its market value, reaching high market prices. Hard still to speculate what will be its next movement. Whether it will be a higher market value or a lower one. At this moment, we are seeing and up and down motion. A deeper price fall is more anticipated since many investors are waiting for the 'low times' before entering this industry to somewhat lessen the risk. Bottomline is waiting game for all of us. Speculating won't be that much of a guide.

IMO the previous bull run seemed like it was just price manipulation from crypto whales who had enough money to pump and dump any coin, whilst the current bull run we are experiencing is caused by mass adoption of crypto by the masses and financial institutions who are investing heavily into bitcoin, i really can't say when we are going to experience another bear market, but we won't have a bear market anytime soon that's the truth.

No, the current spike that we have seen is due to Elon Musk, but after that tweet, we've seen another selling pressures, taking instant profits. However, we can still retest the resistance again @$38,000 to see if we are indeed bullish.

So I would say that sentiments will still drive the market to leg up in the next coming weeks, specially if there is a good new to fuel another big pump.

Everyone is free to have their own opinion regarding the movement of Bitcoin this year compared to 2017/2018. I think the key is in the support
price at $ 30k, if successful the Bitcoin price drops far enough to the price of $ 25k, then I believe it is 90% likely that history will repeat itself.
But Bitcoin is currently stuck above $ 30k, so there is still a possibility that the Bitcoin price will go up again. For now I suggest that we all just
monitor Bitcoin movements, at least we wait for the next two weeks where Bitcoin will move.

Isn't it bullish enough for you that big companies and various funds have invested billions of dollars in BTC in the past few months? That's why we have this price today, even though some want BTC worth millions overnight - but they have no idea about some basic things.

If one even thinks that 2020/21 is identical to 2017/18, then one does not at all take into account that 2017 is the result of halving that happened in 2016 - and consequently it is not unrealistic to expect 2021 to be a big year for BTC given that halving was few months ago. I know that some so eagerly expect a bear market and a big correction because they have sold everything they had and are waiting for the opportunity to re-enter - but the only chance for such a correction to happen is for the crypto world to hit some really bad news.

As for the Lightning Network, you have quite a solid selection of crypto wallets in which this option is supported - and if you want to know more I suggest you visit the following topics :

The Lightning Network FAQ (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5158920.0)
Electrum Lightning Network walkthrough (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5259973.msg54732922#msg54732922)

You want more technical stuff about something yet to come :

Taproot proposal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140134.0)

Okay I can compare and see the overall total Crypto Market Cap between the last one and this current one.

The last one the total crypto market cap including alts, did not make a higher high from its ATH peak back in Jan 2018.

Now I see we are making a higher high and making new ATH's now in total market cap including alts.

Questions are:

- These new ATH's crypto market cap we having now is caused by Alts or Bitcoin?

- If the Alts are having their bull cycle now then at the same time can btc break its 42k ATH resistance?

- If btc cant break its 42k resistance in this current alt bull cycle then will the money flow back into btc when alt bull cycle is finished?

- What if btc gets rejected at 42k resistance while alts are having their bull cycle, will this turn alts from bullish into bearish?

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Okay now were not far off 42k resistance. If it breaks that then that confirms we are in early stages of a bull market.

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Okay Early Stages Bull Market confirmed if it is not a Fakeout  ;)

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Compared to the first ATH that happened way back 2017-2018 that just lasted for a couple of weeks, the current one we are seeing is still maintaining into high positions on which the ATH fever did not crash hard compared to the past one. Also, the ATH right now did not just happened once but consecutively breaks record of the ATH for after breaking the $20,000 price mark of the first recorded ATH, the current ATH still continue to increase up to the point reaching $40,000 and up. The hype is still on compared to the past one that seems to become bubble that took couple of years before it have undergone recovery.

Dont boggle up your mind into these numbers because it is unlikely to happen even if we do go full scale then these numbers arent just possible.So better not to stress yourself out.  ;D

For less fees then i dont know on what would happened if global adoption and making transaction even more flooding the entire network might result into those high miner fees.

If LN would be finalized then we might see another situation but if it would retain into this good old ways then that would really be giving some headache.

Yeah what is the latest status of the Lightning Network? I remember from the last 2017/18 bull cycle everyone saying the lightning network will come soon so its been over 3 years so yeah when will we see it do you think  ???

I remember everyone was saying back then lightning network will get btc to $500k per btc when its mass adopted.

I don't think that it would be the same as 2017 Bull run because the current one that we have is much stronger.
For me the investors this time have a much stronger hands that couldn't be shaken easily unlike in 2017 when things started to shake most of the investor sold their investment.
Now we have bigger players great companies that is holding huge amount so for me they are what gives other investor a security that the price wouldn't easily drop off.

Yeah but what's the latest status of the Lightning Network?

We need LN so we can use btc transactions for everyday life once btc volatility becomes steady.

I say because fiat $dollars might get wrecked due to high volatile inflation or even hyper inflation where it makes no sense to cash out btc for a dying asset $dollar which is super risky.

Once the $dollar is dead it will be replaced by the new programmable algorithmic CBDC Central Bank Digital Currency $dollar where the fed and government can program this new next gen centralized digital currency money to auto stop buying and selling of bitcoins with it so we need our own independent LN for bitcoin users can continue using bitcoin you know what I mean without relying on cashing it out which will not be a option soon.

Lightning Network is being integrated by many platforms but it is not yet full established.
To track news on Lightning Network you can follow

https://www.bitcoinlightning.com/
The Lightning Network FAQ (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5158920.0)

Fiat won't be wrecked so soon as it will stay for long and might not actually completely vanish.
It might stay along side cryptocurrencies. CBDCs are eventually gonna become a reality and LN is still far from wide adoption.
Things are lined up but will take enough time.

So indirectly you meant to say that since there are lot of investors this time around, they won't sell their coins and bitcoin bull run will last much longer or perhaps never end as the demand of bitcoin keeps increasing on every passing day. I think there will still be a blow off top in this bull run even if we know the demand and knowledge of crypto is much more in 2021 as compare to 2017.

Because bitcoin dominance is low below 50%, when btc dips or crashes in price it wont drag down alts too which is good news for Alt coins.

I see bitcoin is running out of steam from looking at the chart showing not so impressive higher highs like it use to. This is caused by all the money flowing into alts instead of bitcoin.

When you guys think money will stop flowing into alts and back into bitcoin?

Any major good news for bitcoin later this year like bitcoin etf or lighting network release? Without btc good news alts will continue gaining dominance.

I remember good news Segwit add on for btc back in the 2017 bull run that help btc regain dominance from the alts!

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When looking at the bitcoin chart to see if there's higher highs and higher lows for confirmation of still intact bullish market: Is this btc chart important or the overall crypto market cap chart which is under $2 trillion now?

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In any market whether its bitcoin or crypto or stock or real estate or bonds or whatever have we ever had a bart simpson top end of bull market like this?:




https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/w_740+q_lossless+ret_img+to_webp/https://cryptopotato.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bart.jpg