Last 2017/18 Bull Market compared to Current One

[very_452001]

The last ath 20k bull market back in dec 2017, btc has hit 14k support from ath 20k five times before finally breaking 14k support on the 6th time it hit it. From there it was end of the bull market entering the bear market. It took about a month to break the 14k support on the 6th time

Fast forward to today are we seeing something similar today with the same winter months like back in 2017/18, everything looks the same except everyone now is saying this is early stages of the bull market run by big institutions. If that's the case then it should not break below the 30k support right We can see btc has hit 30k support twice from ath 42k. So after another month from 42k ath are we are going to break 30k support around 7th feb to enter a bear market like last time?

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[lifeforcepools]

This bull market is really not going to be the same as before. The bears are likely to be quite active.

[aysg76]

The last ath 20k bull market back in dec 2017, btc has hit 14k support from ath 20k five times before finally breaking 14k support on the 6th time it hit it. From there it was end of the bull market entering the bear market. It took about a month to break the 14k support on the 6th time

Fast forward to today are we seeing something similar today with the same winter months like back in 2017/18, everything looks the same except everyone now is saying this is early stages of the bull market run by big institutions. If that's the case then it should not break below the 30k support right We can see btc has hit 30k support twice from ath 42k. So after another month from 42k ath are we are going to break 30k support around 7th feb to enter a bear market like last time?

Yes, surely at one point we gonna enter bear market but answering when, is mere prediction.
As coin base premium is in negative which means coinbase whales has stopped buying BTC at this moment like they were buying when it hit $20k,$30k,$42k because at that time it was around +$60 continuously.

Yes,so I think BTC is gonna come below $30k soon but it surely gonna rise like a rocket .

No bear market soon.

[Review Master]

It's true , "History repeats" and also reality about crypto is : correction needs to take a bullish rally. We can just monitor every indicators to watch out which one is going to be done in the upcoming days. But if bitcoin can't make it above $30k zone, panic sellers maybe rushed to cashout their profits and on the other hand, more institutions or crazy bitcoiners will take that as an oppertunity.  Just hope to see a new ATH which will be more than $42k zone.

[bennypagulayan]

The bull market this year compared to the end of 2017 has many differences.  The crypto market this year has been influenced by really serious accidents, Covid 19 caused a serious economic downturn, suspicion of unemployment crisis, rising evils, outbreak of poverty.  This is the right condition for whales to move and invade the market.  Bitcoin value shows that trend, it will continue to move the next ladder.
Bitcoin will be the main commodity for the competition of corporations competing to increase their benefits after the economic and commercial stagnation due to covid 19.

[hd49728]

The last ath 20k bull market back in dec 2017, btc has hit 14k support from ath 20k five times before finally breaking 14k support on the 6th time it hit it. From there it was end of the bull market entering the bear market. It took about a month to break the 14k support on the 6th time

Fast forward to today are we seeing something similar today with the same winter months like back in 2017/18, everything looks the same except everyone now is saying this is early stages of the bull market run by big institutions. If that's the case then it should not break below the 30k support right We can see btc has hit 30k support twice from ath 42k. So after another month from 42k ath are we are going to break 30k support around 7th feb to enter a bear market like last time?

Two cycles are different as the adoption of bitcoin, cryptocurrency and the developments of blockchain technology are bigger now. Four years ago, they are something sounds promising for the future. But now, 4 years later, the future for massive adoption of blockchain technology is still far but closer very much. Many institutes invested in bitcoin and governments break their opinion and attacks on bitcoin in the past, to start developments for their CBDCs.

It means a lot for bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Governments would not do this if they don't see pressure to change from bitcoin. They must change to slow down the adoption of bitcoin.

If you want to make comparison between 2 cycles, please compare the marketcap and the capital needed to pump the crypto market in next one year. It would be a huge capital requirement compares to 2017 and 2018 bull years.

[masterzino]

The complex market conditions are different than in 2018.

A month ago, we were cheering a $15k Bitcoin. Now we are whining that Bitcoin is 'only' $30k and what will gonna do in this bearish market. I'm calm, and even I find it normal if there is some drop to $25k or $20k. It will give me a chance to buy some more for the long game.

[mk4]

You're totally assuming that the exact same thing will happen this year. While history sure does repeat itself sometimes, it  could definitely not be the case in this bull market. I mean, bitcoin wouldn't be like: "oh damn I broke below the 30k support. welp, I guess I have no choice but to go full bear market now with zero chance for a rebound! See you in the next halving!"

[very_452001]

The last ath 20k bull market back in dec 2017, btc has hit 14k support from ath 20k five times before finally breaking 14k support on the 6th time it hit it. From there it was end of the bull market entering the bear market. It took about a month to break the 14k support on the 6th time

Fast forward to today are we seeing something similar today with the same winter months like back in 2017/18, everything looks the same except everyone now is saying this is early stages of the bull market run by big institutions. If that's the case then it should not break below the 30k support right We can see btc has hit 30k support twice from ath 42k. So after another month from 42k ath are we are going to break 30k support around 7th feb to enter a bear market like last time?

Yes, surely at one point we gonna enter bear market but answering when, is mere prediction.
As coin base premium is in negative which means coinbase whales has stopped buying BTC at this moment like they were buying when it hit $20k,$30k,$42k because at that time it was around +$60 continuously.

Yes,so I think BTC is gonna come below $30k soon but it surely gonna rise like a rocket .

No bear market soon.

Obviously everyone knows that a bear market follows a bull market however most people are saying this is early stages of a bull market caused by big institutions. Are these people right?

What you mean coinbase premium is negative? Do you mean there was a $60 premium over spot market price of btc and if so how come I dont see this premium in coinbase pro and where do you see this live premium data?

[BIN-BIN]

Bitcoin hit below 30k yesterday that is a little above $29k before making it way back to 30k and above, if you study the market movement closely you will discover bitcoin is gradually declining in upward movement and on a steady downward movement which indicate one thing that is the end of the bull run and a new phase of bitcoin price correction in a downward manner.

[death69]

This bull is not even last a year while the 2017 bull last more than 2 years with a momentum built from many previous years. I do not expect much from this bull but the current market can help me to earn some of the money to keep the wolf from the door since covid 19 has hit my family very hard.

Even in the bear market, you are able to make money with short positions

[very_452001]

The last ath 20k bull market back in dec 2017, btc has hit 14k support from ath 20k five times before finally breaking 14k support on the 6th time it hit it. From there it was end of the bull market entering the bear market. It took about a month to break the 14k support on the 6th time

Fast forward to today are we seeing something similar today with the same winter months like back in 2017/18, everything looks the same except everyone now is saying this is early stages of the bull market run by big institutions. If that's the case then it should not break below the 30k support right We can see btc has hit 30k support twice from ath 42k. So after another month from 42k ath are we are going to break 30k support around 7th feb to enter a bear market like last time?

Two cycles are different as the adoption of bitcoin, cryptocurrency and the developments of blockchain technology are bigger now. Four years ago, they are something sounds promising for the future. But now, 4 years later, the future for massive adoption of blockchain technology is still far but closer very much. Many institutes invested in bitcoin and governments break their opinion and attacks on bitcoin in the past, to start developments for their CBDCs.

It means a lot for bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Governments would not do this if they don't see pressure to change from bitcoin. They must change to slow down the adoption of bitcoin.

If you want to make comparison between 2 cycles, please compare the marketcap and the capital needed to pump the crypto market in next one year. It would be a huge capital requirement compares to 2017 and 2018 bull years.

Comparing market caps cannot be done unless you say that we are coming to end of bull market now then we can do a proper comparison and if its the end of the bull market now then the analysis is 2017/18 & 2020/21 are both very similar!

[Becky666]

<snip> If that's the case then it should not break below the 30k support right We can see btc has hit 30k support twice from ath 42k. So after another month from 42k ath are we are going to break 30k support around 7th feb to enter a bear market like last time?

There is a clear case here, the bitcoin market of before and now are arrant different, and maybe history is likely to repeat itself again. Back in 2017/18 there wasn't much investors even though retailers flooded the bull-run market, but that could be reasons we do not have a longer bull market compare to 2020/21. For bitcoin hitting $30k as the support several times shouldn't made it seem to repeat itself again becasue the current market is been infiltrated by institutional investors and not just retailers.  

[very_452001]

You're totally assuming that the exact same thing will happen this year. While history sure does repeat itself sometimes, it  could definitely not be the case in this bull market. I mean, bitcoin wouldn't be like: "oh damn I broke below the 30k support. welp, I guess I have no choice but to go full bear market now with zero chance for a rebound! See you in the next halving!"

If it breaks 30k support then what makes you say that we wont wont enter another long-term bear market till the next halving in 2024 where we can retest ATH 42k resistance near the end of 2024 and double from there to nearly 100k in early 2025?

If that is the case bitcoin will be in a strange paradox where history repeats itself over and over like a repeating pump and dump that doesn't look good for btc.

[mk4]

If it breaks 30k support then what makes you say that we wont wont enter another long-term bear market till the next halving in 2024 where we can retest ATH 42k resistance near the end of 2024 and double from there to nearly 100k in early 2025?

If that is the case bitcoin will be in a strange paradox where history repeats itself over and over like a repeating pump and dump that doesn't look good for btc.

On the other hand, what makes you say that the opposite can't happen whereas we just should through the roof like we didn't drop from 41k to 30k? I never said that what you're saying can't happen, because it's definitely possible. But my obvious point was, we don't have a single freakin clue what's going to happen.

[BrewMaster]

you are totally confusing the times here, this is like 2017 but too far away from reaching the 2018 levels. price right now at $30k is like price back in 2017 at $2k and when the price first went above the ATH of that time and reached twice that meaning it went from $1200 to $2400 then fell down hard and stayed stagnant for a while before it continued heading to $5k.

that's what we have right now. price went up twice the previous ATH from $20k to $40k and fell down hard to $30k and now it is getting ready to reach $50k.

[Latviand]

The complex market conditions are different than in 2018.

A month ago, we were cheering a $15k Bitcoin. Now we are whining that Bitcoin is 'only' $30k and what will gonna do in this bearish market. I'm calm, and even I find it normal if there is some drop to $25k or $20k. It will give me a chance to buy some more for the long game.

This is also what I'm planning, I will also buy more during the dip so that I can still make future bull run profitable too.

Just don't panic when its price suddenly go down, there's always good in the bad so just chill out and plan your next move. But it is probably not the same when bitcoin undergo bear market right now, it will not be the same like before in 2017-2018. However, don't be too confident and make this bull run profitable for you.

Bitcoin is complex, volatile, and unpredictable, just help yourself become effective, observant and improve in the market.

[teosanru]

The last ath 20k bull market back in dec 2017, btc has hit 14k support from ath 20k five times before finally breaking 14k support on the 6th time it hit it. From there it was end of the bull market entering the bear market. It took about a month to break the 14k support on the 6th time

Fast forward to today are we seeing something similar today with the same winter months like back in 2017/18, everything looks the same except everyone now is saying this is early stages of the bull market run by big institutions. If that's the case then it should not break below the 30k support right We can see btc has hit 30k support twice from ath 42k. So after another month from 42k ath are we are going to break 30k support around 7th feb to enter a bear market like last time?

Actually I also had a similar thought process like you. In fact the moment we broke the 20EMA on the daily chart I was pretty much sure that we are going towards 27000 range but somehow there was a such a heavy bullish momentum around that area that we couldn't even stay there for an hour. I think heavy institution buying around that area has ensured that it creates an mental Barrier around that point. but primarily we will just need a huge volume to break that barrier. If we break 28k we are very well into a bear zone otherwise we are just waiting for another leg up.

[hulla]

This bull market is really not going to be the same as before. The bears are likely to be quite active.

Both the bullish and the bearish will never be the same though some people consider the cryptocurrency market to be a replicate market which they actually misapprehend that the market did not by any chance replicate the previous market trend but replicate the previous season (after bullish, correction).
Having said that, the bearish need tobe active sometime before it will be bullish again

[Casdinyard]

This bull is not even last a year while the 2017 bull last more than 2 years with a momentum built from many previous years. I do not expect much from this bull but the current market can help me to earn some of the money to keep the wolf from the door since covid 19 has hit my family very hard.

Even in the bear market, you are able to make money with short positions

I feel sorry for what happened to your family and I hope things will be better soon. But just to clarify, the bull lasted for more than two years way back 2017? Is it the bullish or bearish market? As far as I remember, bullish market lasted for a year only, referring to the actual increase at a high rate in the market price of cryptos. Unlike with the recent ATH wherein it started in the last quarter of the previous year, if I'm not mistaken, but things ended up almost the same ; ATH was announced, then price downfall occurred. This won't prove any pattern in this market but simply displays unpredictable occurrence of only two outcomes; downfall and uprise of the market price.