Bitcoin Forum

Pi cycle top indicator has predicted the previous tops with good accuracy. April 2013 was a bit messed up but December 2013 and December 2017 looked crazy accurate. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/


https://i.ibb.co/NnbvBT5/Screenshot-1.png


Orange line is 111 day moving average (111DMA), green line is a multiple of 350 day moving average (350DMA x 2).

When both lines crossed in the past, it showed we reached the top or close to it.

Look where we are in March 2021 :) both lines look close, but let's zoom in :)

https://i.ibb.co/GTvcGTG/Screenshot-2.png


Both lines are still quite far from crossing, I find it very interesting to compare with September - December 2017:

https://i.ibb.co/YRnXZgr/Screenshot-3.png


You can see both lines were getting close in that period but this is the moment Bitcoin skyrocketted. Also be very careful, this is when it's time to sell, or at least do not buy when this happens. If we follow the same patterns as 2017 we are 2 or 3 months away from the top of the bubble.


This indicator is also available on TradingView.  :P

Could you make a prediction on what price the lines will crossed? So we can take a hint on what price it will be as new ATH (if it reached and history repeat)

Good to see you active Bossian, hope you’re well. I much prefer to see a bullish Bossian ;D
What kind of price range do you predict for the top of this cycle? The top coming in 2-3 months would be great. I can definitely live with that :)

Difficult to make a prediction but I will update when we are close enough.

Good to see you :) no idea to be honest, but looking at previous bubble, probably 150k-200k.



As usual, not financial advice only my opinion!

Bitcoin to $150,000 is likely won't be happen. If bitcoin reach $150,000 it's mean Bitcoin's marketcap is around $2.8 Trillion, beat Apple with marketcap at $2.1 Trillion right now.

Dunno, but $150,000 is too optimism for me.

$150k-$200 might be out of reach for now, but I think a 6 digit figure will likely happen this year.
If we follow that 2017 pattern, we can clearly see that it will top around that price or at least $100k. But there could be a repeat of the 2013, which in my estimate will be $200k or even more, (now I don't know what's you gonna call that.)  ;D

In any case, either of the scenario could really be new levels for all of us, uncharted territory that in the first 10 years of bitcoin, we will never dream of.

Curious statement.
Previous bubble went from $1200 ATH to $20000 ATH which is about 16x rise. From $20k ATH to $150k-$200k ATH is 7.5-10x rise.
The previous bubble also went from $150 bottom to $20000 which is 133x rise. This time from $3200 to $150k-$200k is 46x-62x.

So I guess the strange part is why do you think this "bubble" is going to significantly shrink while the previous 4 cycles each grew in size significantly?

$150,000 isn't even that optimistic lol; we're pretty much just approximately 3x from current prices. And if the bull run continues throughout the year, I wouldn't even be surprised if we touch a price higher than that.

As for Apple, I don't even know why you're comparing a no-borders store of value like bitcoin to Apple, an American business. You're slightly better off comparing bitcoin with the S&P500, or far better yet, gold.

$150k is reasonable target for this year.

I could see something like to $80k+ in March/April
Down to $60k in April/May
Up to $105k in June/July (euphoria for breaking $100k but sellers at $100k overcome and push price down, probably plenty of institutions take profits too)
Down to $70k July/August
Up to year peak of $150k in October.

That or something like that seems pretty reasonable for this year.

Two or three months from the top means max June, which means this rally would only last for 6 months (from old 2017 ATH to new ATH). Doesn't really feel like good news if we see that in the past, the bubble lasted a lot longer (almost 1 year in 2017 from old ATH to 20k).

But maybe this also means less longer bear periods?

Such very high figures. But you're the one with a more brilliant analysis, or at least it appears so to me, so I guess I will be personally withholding any decision to sell at $60,000 or even at $80,000 to wait for that top. Even $150,000 would be good. Or if we fall short of that range, we will certainly cross the 6-digit threshold. See you all there.

Then you should sell some portion of bitcoin at those range price and sell it at once at $150,000. After that, the price will make a correction and I guess the drops will coming at that time, so prepare yourself for that moment. It seems the price gets the real rally this time. As I see in Binance, the price breaks $52k and still increases. I wonder how high bitcoin price will rise this time as bitcoin price already at a lower price for a weeks or so. But this time, it is exciting to see bitcoin prices finally can increase higher again.

I might as well put off selling until the price breaks $100,000. Or to avoid a foreseeable heavy sell wall at that price I might find it good enough to sell at $99,999. $100,000 might be a hard resistance.

$60,000- $80,000 might already be the buy back range during the deep correction following the $150,000 - $200,000 top if ever such prediction will indeed come to reality.

Selling on your target price will be acceptable as it might need to wait for some time for the price to reach $100,000. But it will no problem if you still place an order sell at $100,000 because the price can hit that price anytime soon. But before we can see bitcoin price reach that price, we should have many bitcoin to have a big profit if we sell at that high price.

If the price hit $100,000, then $60,000-$80,000 can be the dip for the correction, so if that is really happening in the next months, you need to prepare a lot of money to buy back bitcoin. Otherwise, you can split your money to buy in many ranges of the prices.

The thing is, we humans are defined to see patterns, and sometimes we create them where we want to see them, not doubting your prediction at all, but comparing this market with the 2017 might be an error, things can take a huge turn (even for the better) since we are seeing actions without precedents such as big companies joining in, a bigger afluence of people getting aknowledgable about bitcoin, and what 2017 did to the world was showing that going full ape into any bitcoin related business would be a mistake because most would turn on to be a scam, so people are more concerned about understanding it before buying whatever it is, which is the best outcome we could ask. In my opinion we will never see bitcoin going as down as it once was, perhaps half of what it is now would be the max, but I feel there is more trust in this ecossystem as the days go by. I believe we are far more advanced in a worldwide adoption. I won't say I'm completely bullish in the current market but I'm not as concerned as I once was. 100k is realistically possible, but I'm hoping an armageddon won't happen any time soon, if ever.

That is true, if I want to I can make sure to find something that would show price going over 100k and I can find something that shows how it is going under 10k as well, they are both available depending on how you want to check it, it is not that difficult neither it is a very easy choice. It is something that would be simple but unfortunately people do not realize that, they check a chart and they decide that they are the only right one and people who do the other way are the wrong ones and others will be "obviously" wrong and they will be right.

In reality you could make any chart you want AND none would mean anything if something unexpected happens. Which is why I never rely on anything like this, sure I check TA but I never really see that as the only thing that I should base my trading on, it is just something that could supplement it and that's it, can never be the main reason.

If it ever hits 100k USD this year, I believe that volatility would be checked and I don't think that it will be the least of our worries, what I worry is that when the price reach that point, a sudden downturn will happen and I don't mean just any downturn but a big one because a lot will not be able to hold on any longer and they see 100k USD as a good price to get out of the market and wait for it to go down. It is already evident that this year's run is not the same as 2017 the moment that bitcoin was still going strong despite reaching the end of the 3rd week of January.

You sound like the people saying the same about $10k. We nearly doubled it with the FOMO.
100K WILL GET HIT.

I agree $100k is where you should think about taking profits before the new bear season.
It will ATH anywhere from $101k to $300k...

I like seeing such bullish predictions with some explanations why it's possible to happen. <3

When bitcoin hits $3k. People have also said that $15k-$20k seems to be high at that current state.

That will make the correction have big drops happen to the market, and I am really worried if that is happening because that can make many people panic. They will sell their bitcoin fast without thinking that is just a correction, and if that so, the price will go down fast to the lowest price. But we still need time to hit $100k, so we better prepare ourselves by having many bitcoins to sell at the highest price. And if the price drops too deep, we can have the chance to buy back Bitcoin at that price, and I am sure that the bitcoin that we buy will be bigger than before.

I really like the chart since it's so clean and easy to explain and see the particulars in the chart itself. It would be nice to follow more of your charts like this. I have questions about it. I'm planning to recreate it as well.

Is DMA like EMA or MA? Or just MA and with specific parameters using a Daily Timeframe chart?

This could be a great reference in a few months following that "possible" crash. I'm still overall bullish for BTC.

Don't you think that Bitcoin when it rises to $ 100k it will drop steeply? I have seen many analysts who are waiting for the price at $ 100k and investors know it, but $ 100k is a very psychological number, if this happens, the offer at this level will be high.

  Will institutions be able to buy at these price levels? and thus eliminate the offer? If this happens more than $ 100k can occur and exceed the limit of $ 100k, will the Bitcoin whales that participated in the bull run of 2017 come into play? For me personally the whales have not come into play yet, only the new investors who have bought massively like Elon Muskm Payopal, Microestrategy.

Even if that is hard to happen, we have a history from bitcoin that shows to us when the price reaches the highest peak price, and the price was going down slowly or faster. Based on that history, we really need to be careful about those drops because that can happen again in the future.

I am sure institutions can buy at those price levels, especially if that is a big institution or big company. But we do not know how much bitcoin amount they want to buy because they will not tell the public about that. I guess the dump will come, especially for the whales who have a huge amount of bitcoin.

Just imagine, if you have a big amount of bitcoin, for example, 1k-10k bitcoin amount and the price is at $100k, you only need to use a small part of bitcoin, let say 10 bitcoin. That can make the price drop too deep because the amount on that order price will not be full of 1 bitcoin. People will tend to buy for a small fraction of bitcoin to buy 1 bitcoin directly because the price is very expensive to them, even for the institution or the big company.

Do not get your hopes up because of a chart, I do believe that bitcoin will not be going down anytime soon as well, but I do not believe that because of a chart, I believe it because we have a lot more people who are bullish on bitcoin and corporations who have done billions in bitcoin purchases.

Charts could always be wrong, I do not trust them enough to make my decisions based on them, they should be showing what it will do but mostly they show what the direction market is going but not what it may do, I have faced with a lot of situations where bitcoin has dropped when it was looking like it will go up and many times it went up when it looked like it will skyrocket.

I remember one clear example back in 2018 late periods when it was 6.5k and everyone was looking at charts saying 12k is easily coming soon and it crashed to 3k because Craigh Wright sold many coins to build BSV, that was unexpected and everyone who looked at charts lost money.

This is pretty much following what PlanB's stock to flow chart analysis predicts, which is all good.

But is there really going to be a crash? I mean the market or scene has changed from the 2017 to
2018 correction, its not all OTC investors now, there are serious Hodlers in Bitcoin who say they
wont be selling.

Don't underestimate the FOMO and FUD of greedy people in large groups...

Every cycle there are people getting into bitcoin trying to get rich quick. Putting in all their money.
Then when it goes down they are in the hole and then bills come pouring in and they are forced to sell...
Stupid traders will cause the crash...

I've never heard that explanation. Any actual evidence of that or did you just hear that somewhere?

well everything in crypto is possible. bitcoin hitting 150k might be too much of optimism but for some of us it will be more than that. the fomo is going to overhype crypto but the fall could also very terrible. just as how history show when btc touched $3k during the bear market.

not knowledgeable about Pi Cycle Top so its very interesting to see someone used 111 and 350 DMA.
how do we know the market is very overheated?

My experience is that the market is overheated when

- Bitcoin is mentioned in mainstream media (TV)
- Everyone around you talks about it
- People around you start buying and trading shitcoins
- The price is going up at an insane rate (look at last 30 days before previous ATH)
- etc.

maybe true. a very popular guy in finance like Elon Musk investing $1.5B in BTC is big news. one could say he is one of the guys hyping but this is actually old news. he is in the crypto space for a long time ago. i can see BTC on newspapers though so yes it's spreading. the problem however is that the price is too high already for an ordinary guy will not be able to afford it.

Which is why it has felt like it's been overheating in at least February. TV was bitcoining all over. You know it's mainstream when even Reuters is talking about Bitcoin all the time.

People all know what Binance is.

Defi shitcoins are being shilled 24/7 on every spam message.

While I'm agree with you about the price of Bitcoin to increase more this year , i was wondering how much can be that crash in future to be ?

I mean how deep market can fall after the rising ?

Lol that's a sure hearsay  ;D

Never that crossed the news week because it never happened , Maybe he is just Buying FUD in some thread .

I haven’t seen people like Richard Quest talk in-depth Bitcoin on CNN yet...
I haven’t got three colleagues trading shitcoins and forgetting about their work....
Colleagues arguing about Bitcoin at the coffee machine

... so I’m not there yet... just doesn’t feel like 2017 yet... not crazy enough ...

I think it is going to be a tough thing to make sure that we do not allow those rich people to speculate and manipulate the price, we need a lot bigger market cap to swallow those kinds of moves, but right now we are not that big just yet. But, if these companies keep getting into bitcoin that could mean that we could actually get their individual moves not really mean a lot.

I personally believe that bitcoin will grow a lot and there will not be a crash like before, it is not really acceptable to fall anymore in the eyes of these huge rich people and they will make it work somehow to keep it high, if they have to spend a lot of money they will, and they will take out even more money out of the market and into their pockets, that will be a horrible situation for us so we should not sell it if it falls but at least we know that they will not allow it to drop like it did in 2018 so that is a positive.

I do not underestimate them neither but I have to say places like microstrategy, grayscale, microsoft, tesla and so forth all buying billions of dollars worth of bitcoin (some others I do not remember as well) means that they are all in business of crypto now and I believe them getting this much bitcoin means that if it ever drops too much, they will get in even more, they like bitcoin and they do not mind buying even more when it drops, or even when it is going up as well, there are companies that constantly buy bitcoin every month.

Hence, I think even if there is a chance we may fall down, there is also a chance that we may never drop to levels that is like 2018 drop, sure we could still have a correction and so forth like we had recently, but we will probably not lose 80% like last time because there are rich companies who buy before that happens and make it go back up.

OP, can we get the update of your post maybe? Now bitcoin surpassed $57k, so we would like to see where is the position on this price

It's really interesting that the indicator showed a peak around 60k, the lines crossed, then we saw a pretty heavy dump to 47k, but now the lines are distinct again  ??? it looks like a fakeout.

https://i.postimg.cc/tTjYF9yK/Screenshot-1.png


In 2013 and 2017 the orange line really crossed above and never looked back, but here the green line is now above again,  I quickly looked at the history of this tool and I don't think this happened in the past! Very interesting. Also interesting that the author of this tool himself said on Twitter he doesn't believe we have seen the peak yet.


I am personally monitoring another indicator called the 2-year MA multiplier.

Everytime we cross above the red line, which is the 2-year moving average X 5 (green line is 2-year MA), we see a very sharp move to the upside, right now the red line is around 82k.  

Just look:

https://i.postimg.cc/rmDMdbRB/Screenshot-2.png

In 2017 Bitcoin did almost X3 after it crossed the red line. Maybe this time only X2, who knows but I am confident we are still far from the cycle top.

X2/X3? try X7 or X8.
back in 2017 when we were stuck in a similar situation price was stuck below $3k and people were panicking that it could be the "end of bitcoin" since there was a huge fee spike and spam attacks were rampant.

I do not even need a chart, I just can see that it is really doing great and that is why I am optimistic about our chances of getting to a huge level. I am not saying that it will be impossible, all I am saying that it is unlikely that we would go down.

I personally want to earn a lot more from bitcoin increases so maybe mine is wishful thinking but this chart also shows that it is clearly something that I did not made up, I was serious about something like this and turns out I was also right as well. We will definitely see much higher, I can't know how much, probably 100k+ at least before we have another crash, but I really do not know how much it will increase, and I also do not know when it will happen neither, it may happen tomorrow or it may happen later. However I am certain that before we have a huge crash, we will instead have a huge pump for sure.

Bear trend will happen soon, Bitcoin can’t hit the resistance level anymore and we’ve seen its price stabilize on a specific level. If you have chance to take profit now much better but if you’re still holding with your Bitcoin, be ready to face a lot of challenges. I’m actually preparing now for the new bear trend, and I’m ready to buy the dip.

This is what I'm thinking too. This bull run is very similar to what happened in 2017 when we broke the ATH of 1000 for the second time and went to 3k right away just to keep falling for more than a month from that point.

People don't remember now that we lost 30% back then which would be similar to a fall to 44 thousand from our current ATH. We fell to 47000 in that last correction. Looks similar? To me it sure does.

There still was no sharp almost 50% decline like when we fell from 20 to 11 thousand at the end of the 2017 bull market.

What indicators do you use mate? I think that's more accurate and very informative than other indicators.. Seems like WA for me but its just have 2 lines unlike WA it has 3 but it didn't move like that only straight lines? . Btw i will appreciate it if you will share the name of that tools here because i need that one also.   ;)