Why I am confident Bitcoin price will still rise A LOT before the next big crash

[crwth]

I really like the chart since it's so clean and easy to explain and see the particulars in the chart itself. It would be nice to follow more of your charts like this. I have questions about it. I'm planning to recreate it as well.

Is DMA like EMA or MA? Or just MA and with specific parameters using a Daily Timeframe chart?

This could be a great reference in a few months following that "possible" crash. I'm still overall bullish for BTC.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Maybe the price will hit $100k this year, but with more volatility and unpredicted movements. But I am waiting for the high price, and I am sure many of us will have the same reason

The next bitcoin movement will not be the same as 2017 because many things already change, including support from the big company and more new people who invest in bitcoin. But the dump can be any price, and it can get down as lower as before.

If it ever hits 100k USD this year, I believe that volatility would be checked and I don't think that it will be the least of our worries, what I worry is that when the price reach that point, a sudden downturn will happen and I don't mean just any downturn but a big one because a lot will not be able to hold on any longer and they see 100k USD as a good price to get out of the market and wait for it to go down. It is already evident that this year's run is not the same as 2017 the moment that bitcoin was still going strong despite reaching the end of the 3rd week of January.

That will make the correction have big drops happen to the market, and I am really worried if that is happening because that can make many people panic. They will sell their bitcoin fast without thinking that is just a correction, and if that so, the price will go down fast to the lowest price. But we still need time to hit $100k, so we better prepare ourselves by having many bitcoins to sell at the highest price. And if the price drops too deep, we can have the chance to buy back Bitcoin at that price, and I am sure that the bitcoin that we buy will be bigger than before.

Don't you think that Bitcoin when it rises to $ 100k it will drop steeply? I have seen many analysts who are waiting for the price at $ 100k and investors know it, but $ 100k is a very psychological number, if this happens, the offer at this level will be high.

  Will institutions be able to buy at these price levels? and thus eliminate the offer? If this happens more than $ 100k can occur and exceed the limit of $ 100k, will the Bitcoin whales that participated in the bull run of 2017 come into play? For me personally the whales have not come into play yet, only the new investors who have bought massively like Elon Muskm Payopal, Microestrategy.

[ethereumhunter]

Maybe the price will hit $100k this year, but with more volatility and unpredicted movements. But I am waiting for the high price, and I am sure many of us will have the same reason

The next bitcoin movement will not be the same as 2017 because many things already change, including support from the big company and more new people who invest in bitcoin. But the dump can be any price, and it can get down as lower as before.

If it ever hits 100k USD this year, I believe that volatility would be checked and I don't think that it will be the least of our worries, what I worry is that when the price reach that point, a sudden downturn will happen and I don't mean just any downturn but a big one because a lot will not be able to hold on any longer and they see 100k USD as a good price to get out of the market and wait for it to go down. It is already evident that this year's run is not the same as 2017 the moment that bitcoin was still going strong despite reaching the end of the 3rd week of January.

That will make the correction have big drops happen to the market, and I am really worried if that is happening because that can make many people panic. They will sell their bitcoin fast without thinking that is just a correction, and if that so, the price will go down fast to the lowest price. But we still need time to hit $100k, so we better prepare ourselves by having many bitcoins to sell at the highest price. And if the price drops too deep, we can have the chance to buy back Bitcoin at that price, and I am sure that the bitcoin that we buy will be bigger than before.

Don't you think that Bitcoin when it rises to $ 100k it will drop steeply? I have seen many analysts who are waiting for the price at $ 100k and investors know it, but $ 100k is a very psychological number, if this happens, the offer at this level will be high.

  Will institutions be able to buy at these price levels? and thus eliminate the offer? If this happens more than $ 100k can occur and exceed the limit of $ 100k, will the Bitcoin whales that participated in the bull run of 2017 come into play? For me personally the whales have not come into play yet, only the new investors who have bought massively like Elon Muskm Payopal, Microestrategy.

Even if that is hard to happen, we have a history from bitcoin that shows to us when the price reaches the highest peak price, and the price was going down slowly or faster. Based on that history, we really need to be careful about those drops because that can happen again in the future.

I am sure institutions can buy at those price levels, especially if that is a big institution or big company. But we do not know how much bitcoin amount they want to buy because they will not tell the public about that. I guess the dump will come, especially for the whales who have a huge amount of bitcoin.

Just imagine, if you have a big amount of bitcoin, for example, 1k-10k bitcoin amount and the price is at $100k, you only need to use a small part of bitcoin, let say 10 bitcoin. That can make the price drop too deep because the amount on that order price will not be full of 1 bitcoin. People will tend to buy for a small fraction of bitcoin to buy 1 bitcoin directly because the price is very expensive to them, even for the institution or the big company.

[justdimin]

I really like the chart since it's so clean and easy to explain and see the particulars in the chart itself. It would be nice to follow more of your charts like this. I have questions about it. I'm planning to recreate it as well.

Is DMA like EMA or MA? Or just MA and with specific parameters using a Daily Timeframe chart?

This could be a great reference in a few months following that "possible" crash. I'm still overall bullish for BTC.

Do not get your hopes up because of a chart, I do believe that bitcoin will not be going down anytime soon as well, but I do not believe that because of a chart, I believe it because we have a lot more people who are bullish on bitcoin and corporations who have done billions in bitcoin purchases.

Charts could always be wrong, I do not trust them enough to make my decisions based on them, they should be showing what it will do but mostly they show what the direction market is going but not what it may do, I have faced with a lot of situations where bitcoin has dropped when it was looking like it will go up and many times it went up when it looked like it will skyrocket.

I remember one clear example back in 2018 late periods when it was 6.5k and everyone was looking at charts saying 12k is easily coming soon and it crashed to 3k because Craigh Wright sold many coins to build BSV, that was unexpected and everyone who looked at charts lost money.

[aoluain]

This is pretty much following what PlanB's stock to flow chart analysis predicts, which is all good.

But is there really going to be a crash? I mean the market or scene has changed from the 2017 to
2018 correction, its not all OTC investors now, there are serious Hodlers in Bitcoin who say they
wont be selling.

[Wilhelm]

This is pretty much following what PlanB's stock to flow chart analysis predicts, which is all good.

But is there really going to be a crash? I mean the market or scene has changed from the 2017 to
2018 correction, its not all OTC investors now, there are serious Hodlers in Bitcoin who say they
wont be selling.

Don't underestimate the FOMO and FUD of greedy people in large groups...

Every cycle there are people getting into bitcoin trying to get rich quick. Putting in all their money.
Then when it goes down they are in the hole and then bills come pouring in and they are forced to sell...
Stupid traders will cause the crash...

[thecodebear]

and it crashed to 3k because Craigh Wright sold many coins to build BSV

I've never heard that explanation. Any actual evidence of that or did you just hear that somewhere?

[electronicash]

This is pretty much following what PlanB's stock to flow chart analysis predicts, which is all good.

But is there really going to be a crash? I mean the market or scene has changed from the 2017 to
2018 correction, its not all OTC investors now, there are serious Hodlers in Bitcoin who say they
wont be selling.

Don't underestimate the FOMO and FUD of greedy people in large groups...

Every cycle there are people getting into bitcoin trying to get rich quick. Putting in all their money.
Then when it goes down they are in the hole and then bills come pouring in and they are forced to sell...
Stupid traders will cause the crash...

well everything in crypto is possible. bitcoin hitting 150k might be too much of optimism but for some of us it will be more than that. the fomo is going to overhype crypto but the fall could also very terrible. just as how history show when btc touched $3k during the bear market.

not knowledgeable about Pi Cycle Top so its very interesting to see someone used 111 and 350 DMA.
how do we know the market is very overheated?

[Wilhelm]

This is pretty much following what PlanB's stock to flow chart analysis predicts, which is all good.

But is there really going to be a crash? I mean the market or scene has changed from the 2017 to
2018 correction, its not all OTC investors now, there are serious Hodlers in Bitcoin who say they
wont be selling.

Don't underestimate the FOMO and FUD of greedy people in large groups...

Every cycle there are people getting into bitcoin trying to get rich quick. Putting in all their money.
Then when it goes down they are in the hole and then bills come pouring in and they are forced to sell...
Stupid traders will cause the crash...

well everything in crypto is possible. bitcoin hitting 150k might be too much of optimism but for some of us it will be more than that. the fomo is going to overhype crypto but the fall could also very terrible. just as how history show when btc touched $3k during the bear market.

not knowledgeable about Pi Cycle Top so its very interesting to see someone used 111 and 350 DMA.
how do we know the market is very overheated?

My experience is that the market is overheated when

- Bitcoin is mentioned in mainstream media (TV)
- Everyone around you talks about it
- People around you start buying and trading shitcoins
- The price is going up at an insane rate (look at last 30 days before previous ATH)
- etc.

[electronicash]

This is pretty much following what PlanB's stock to flow chart analysis predicts, which is all good.

But is there really going to be a crash? I mean the market or scene has changed from the 2017 to
2018 correction, its not all OTC investors now, there are serious Hodlers in Bitcoin who say they
wont be selling.

Don't underestimate the FOMO and FUD of greedy people in large groups...

Every cycle there are people getting into bitcoin trying to get rich quick. Putting in all their money.
Then when it goes down they are in the hole and then bills come pouring in and they are forced to sell...
Stupid traders will cause the crash...

well everything in crypto is possible. bitcoin hitting 150k might be too much of optimism but for some of us it will be more than that. the fomo is going to overhype crypto but the fall could also very terrible. just as how history show when btc touched $3k during the bear market.

not knowledgeable about Pi Cycle Top so its very interesting to see someone used 111 and 350 DMA.
how do we know the market is very overheated?

My experience is that the market is overheated when

- Bitcoin is mentioned in mainstream media (TV)
- Everyone around you talks about it
- People around you start buying and trading shitcoins
- The price is going up at an insane rate (look at last 30 days before previous ATH)
- etc.

maybe true. a very popular guy in finance like Elon Musk investing $1.5B in BTC is big news. one could say he is one of the guys hyping but this is actually old news. he is in the crypto space for a long time ago. i can see BTC on newspapers though so yes it's spreading. the problem however is that the price is too high already for an ordinary guy will not be able to afford it.

[slaman29]

My experience is that the market is overheated when

- Bitcoin is mentioned in mainstream media (TV)
- Everyone around you talks about it
- People around you start buying and trading shitcoins
- The price is going up at an insane rate (look at last 30 days before previous ATH)
- etc.

Which is why it has felt like it's been overheating in at least February. TV was bitcoining all over. You know it's mainstream when even Reuters is talking about Bitcoin all the time.

People all know what Binance is.

Defi shitcoins are being shilled 24/7 on every spam message.

[btc78]

While I'm agree with you about the price of Bitcoin to increase more this year , i was wondering how much can be that crash in future to be ?

I mean how deep market can fall after the rising ?

and it crashed to 3k because Craigh Wright sold many coins to build BSV

I've never heard that explanation. Any actual evidence of that or did you just hear that somewhere?

Lol that's a sure hearsay 

Never that crossed the news week because it never happened , Maybe he is just Buying FUD in some thread .

[Wilhelm]

My experience is that the market is overheated when

- Bitcoin is mentioned in mainstream media (TV)
- Everyone around you talks about it
- People around you start buying and trading shitcoins
- The price is going up at an insane rate (look at last 30 days before previous ATH)
- etc.

Which is why it has felt like it's been overheating in at least February. TV was bitcoining all over. You know it's mainstream when even Reuters is talking about Bitcoin all the time.

People all know what Binance is.

Defi shitcoins are being shilled 24/7 on every spam message.

I haven’t seen people like Richard Quest talk in-depth Bitcoin on CNN yet...
I haven’t got three colleagues trading shitcoins and forgetting about their work....
Colleagues arguing about Bitcoin at the coffee machine

... so I’m not there yet... just doesn’t feel like 2017 yet... not crazy enough ...

[el kaka22]

I think it is going to be a tough thing to make sure that we do not allow those rich people to speculate and manipulate the price, we need a lot bigger market cap to swallow those kinds of moves, but right now we are not that big just yet. But, if these companies keep getting into bitcoin that could mean that we could actually get their individual moves not really mean a lot.

I personally believe that bitcoin will grow a lot and there will not be a crash like before, it is not really acceptable to fall anymore in the eyes of these huge rich people and they will make it work somehow to keep it high, if they have to spend a lot of money they will, and they will take out even more money out of the market and into their pockets, that will be a horrible situation for us so we should not sell it if it falls but at least we know that they will not allow it to drop like it did in 2018 so that is a positive.

[TheGreatPython]

This is pretty much following what PlanB's stock to flow chart analysis predicts, which is all good.

But is there really going to be a crash? I mean the market or scene has changed from the 2017 to
2018 correction, its not all OTC investors now, there are serious Hodlers in Bitcoin who say they
wont be selling.

Don't underestimate the FOMO and FUD of greedy people in large groups...

Every cycle there are people getting into bitcoin trying to get rich quick. Putting in all their money.
Then when it goes down they are in the hole and then bills come pouring in and they are forced to sell...
Stupid traders will cause the crash...

I do not underestimate them neither but I have to say places like microstrategy, grayscale, microsoft, tesla and so forth all buying billions of dollars worth of bitcoin (some others I do not remember as well) means that they are all in business of crypto now and I believe them getting this much bitcoin means that if it ever drops too much, they will get in even more, they like bitcoin and they do not mind buying even more when it drops, or even when it is going up as well, there are companies that constantly buy bitcoin every month.

Hence, I think even if there is a chance we may fall down, there is also a chance that we may never drop to levels that is like 2018 drop, sure we could still have a correction and so forth like we had recently, but we will probably not lose 80% like last time because there are rich companies who buy before that happens and make it go back up.

[janggernaut]

OP, can we get the update of your post maybe? Now bitcoin surpassed $57k, so we would like to see where is the position on this price

[Bossian]

It's really interesting that the indicator showed a peak around 60k, the lines crossed, then we saw a pretty heavy dump to 47k, but now the lines are distinct again   it looks like a fakeout.




In 2013 and 2017 the orange line really crossed above and never looked back, but here the green line is now above again,  I quickly looked at the history of this tool and I don't think this happened in the past! Very interesting. Also interesting that the author of this tool himself said on Twitter he doesn't believe we have seen the peak yet.


I am personally monitoring another indicator called the 2-year MA multiplier.

Everytime we cross above the red line, which is the 2-year moving average X 5 (green line is 2-year MA), we see a very sharp move to the upside, right now the red line is around 82k.  

Just look:



In 2017 Bitcoin did almost X3 after it crossed the red line. Maybe this time only X2, who knows but I am confident we are still far from the cycle top.

[BrewMaster]

In 2017 Bitcoin did almost X3 after it crossed the red line. Maybe this time only X2, who knows but I am confident we are still far from the cycle top.

X2/X3? try X7 or X8.
back in 2017 when we were stuck in a similar situation price was stuck below $3k and people were panicking that it could be the "end of bitcoin" since there was a huge fee spike and spam attacks were rampant.

[el kaka22]

I do not even need a chart, I just can see that it is really doing great and that is why I am optimistic about our chances of getting to a huge level. I am not saying that it will be impossible, all I am saying that it is unlikely that we would go down.

I personally want to earn a lot more from bitcoin increases so maybe mine is wishful thinking but this chart also shows that it is clearly something that I did not made up, I was serious about something like this and turns out I was also right as well. We will definitely see much higher, I can't know how much, probably 100k+ at least before we have another crash, but I really do not know how much it will increase, and I also do not know when it will happen neither, it may happen tomorrow or it may happen later. However I am certain that before we have a huge crash, we will instead have a huge pump for sure.

[Scripture]

Bear trend will happen soon, Bitcoin can’t hit the resistance level anymore and we’ve seen its price stabilize on a specific level. If you have chance to take profit now much better but if you’re still holding with your Bitcoin, be ready to face a lot of challenges. I’m actually preparing now for the new bear trend, and I’m ready to buy the dip.