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This is my second betting experiment which I call Chasing the Draw. A few weeks ago, I wrote about My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5318271.0). The idea there was to bet on draws when your selected team plays at home and on them to win when they play away from home. Just like in the first experiment, I haven’t played with real money. This is just a compilation of the team’s results to show what would have happened if you were betting in this way.

I selected six football teams: Two from the French Ligue 2, two from the Mexican Liga MX, and two from the Spanish Laliga 2.   

The selected teams:

•   Paris FC
•   Sochaux
•   Santos Laguna
•   Atlas
•   Sporting Gijon
•   Ponferradina

Why these teams and leagues?

I picked the teams positioned in the 5th and 7th place in their respective leagues when the experiment began. The idea was not to bet on the favourites because they win most of their matches. These leagues are some of the most evenly-contested competitions where many games end in draws.

I took screenshots of the league tables when the experiment started.







The betting system

These are the rules for the Martingale system I applied:

•   Every time my selected teams play, I bet on draws (X).
•   If the bet losses, I multiple the stake by 1.5x for the next match. ($3.00 > $4.50 > $6.75, etc.). I continue multiplying the stake money until my selection wins.
•   When the team draws, the cycle restarts with the initial stake amount.

Why these selections?

Draws in football matches are very common, and the odds on these outcomes are generally rewarding. I initially wanted to try this system by doubling the stake every time my selections lost (same as in my 1st betting experiment). But Trofo suggested that it’s a good idea to increase the stake by 1.5x instead. This allows for better bankroll management and less money invested.

Are there any risks with this system?

As you will see in the team results in the 2nd post, you may experience over 10 losses in a row. In that case, you’ll need enough money to continue playing the system. If the winning odds aren’t high enough, you won’t register any profits even if your selection wins. That’s because you are increasing the stake by 1.5x and not by 2x.

How I choose to bet, and what profit/losses did I make?

•   My initial stake is always $3.
•   In the 2nd post, you will see a complete overview of each team’s results during the 2020/2021 football season. This includes the opponents, the odds for draws, stake money, and final results.
•   A profit/loss count is posted after every round. All odds were taken from a local live score https://www.rezultati.com/.
•   I think they use bet365 as a reference for their odds. The good thing is that the odds on crypto bookies are higher than on bet365 and many other fiat bookies.
•   All posted odds are from rezultati.com and show the X betting selections, respectively.
•   All results were taken from that site and compared with official stats at https://www.ligue2.fr/, https://ligamx.net/, and https://www.laliga.com/.


THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE, AND SHOULDN’T BE CONSIDERED AS SUCH!
THIS IS WRITTEN FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY! 

Paris FC
 
Round 1
Chambly vs Paris FC 0:3
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Paris FC vs Valenciennes 1:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
Amiens vs Paris FC 1:2
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 4
Paris FC vs Nancy 0:2
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 5
Niort vs Paris FC 2:2
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: +$42.525

Round 6
Paris FC vs Le Havre 3:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 7
Paris FC vs Pau FC 1:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 8
Chateauroux vs Paris FC 1:2
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 9
Paris FC vs Caen 3:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 10
Dunkerque vs Paris FC 0:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 11
Paris FC vs Auxerre 0:3
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: -$22.78125

Round 12
Grenoble vs Paris FC 0:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $34.171875
Profit/Loss: +$102.515625

Round 13
Paris FC vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$9.00

Round 14
Troyes vs Paris FC 3:1
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 15
Paris FC vs Rodez 1:1
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: +$14.85

Round 16
Clermont vs Paris FC 3:2
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 17
Paris FC vs Guingamp 3:2
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 18
Toulouse vs Paris FC 1:0
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 19
Paris FC vs AC Ajaccio 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: +$30.375

Round 20
Valenciennes vs Paris FC 2:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 21
Paris FC vs Amiens 4:2
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 22
Nancy vs Paris FC 1:1
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$21.60

Round 23
Paris FC vs Niort 3:3
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$10.80

Round 24
Le Havre vs Paris FC 1:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 25
Pau FC vs Paris FC 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: +$13.50

Round 26
Paris FC vs Chateauroux 1:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 27
Caen vs Paris FC 0:2
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 28
Paris FC vs Dunkerque 1:0
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

---

Sochaux
 
Round 1
Auxerre vs Sochaux 0:2
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Sochaux vs Troyes 2:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
Toulouse vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$20.925

Round 4
Sochaux vs Rodez 2:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.70

Round 5
AC Ajaccio vs Sochaux 1:1
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.25

Round 6
Sochaux vs Chambly 3:2
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 7
Valenciennes vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: +$13.95

Round 8
Sochaux vs Amiens 0:2
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 9
Guingamp vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: +$13.95

Round 10
Sochaux vs Niort 3:4
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 11
Chateauroux vs Sochaux 2:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 12
Sochaux vs Le Havre 4:0
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 13
Played against Paris FC

Round 14
Sochaux vs Nancy 1:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: +$29.3625

Round 15
Pau FC vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.25

Round 16
Sochaux vs Grenoble 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$9.00

Round 17
Caen vs Sochaux 1:4
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 18
Sochaux vs Dunkerque 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 19
Sochaux vs Clermont 0:0
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$19.3725

Round 20
Troyes vs Sochaux 2:1
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 21
Sochaux vs Toulouse 0:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 22
Rodez vs Sochaux 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$20.25

Round 23
Sochaux vs AC Ajaccio 0:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 24
Chambly vs Sochaux 1:4
Odds: 2,80
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 25
Sochaux vs Valenciennes 2:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 26
Amiens vs Sochaux 0:1
Odds: 2,80
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 27
Sochaux vs Guingamp 0:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: +$45.5625

Round 28
Niort vs Sochaux 1:3
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

---

Santos Laguna
 
Round 1
Santos Laguna vs Cruz Azul 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Santos Laguna vs Tigres 2:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
Mazatlan FC vs Santos Laguna 0:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$22.275

Round 4
Santos Laguna vs Club America 0:0
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$10.80

Round 5
Atlas vs Santos Laguna 1:1
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$9.60

Round 6
Santos Laguna vs Monterrey 1:0
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 7
Atl. San Luis vs Santos Laguna 1:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 8
Santos Laguna vs Juarez 3:2
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 9
U.N.A.M. vs Santos Laguna 1:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 10
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa 3:1
Odds: 3.75
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

---

Atlas
 
Round 1
Atlas vs Monterrey 0:2
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Queretaro vs Atlas 1:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
Atlas vs Tigres 0:2
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 4
U.N.A.M. vs Atlas 0:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: +$31.3875

Round 5
Played against Santos Laguna

Round 6
Pachuca vs Atlas 0:1
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 7
Atlas vs Club America 3:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 8
Toluca vs Atlas 0:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$22.95

Round 9
Atlas vs Atl. San Luis 3:1
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 10
Atlas vs Juarez 2:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

---

S. Gijon
 
Round 1
S. Gijon vs Logrones 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Cartagena vs S. Gijon 0:1
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
S. Gijon vs Girona 2:0
Odds: 2.70
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 4
Almeria vs S. Gijon 0:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 5
R. Oviedo vs S. Gijon 1:0
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 6
S. Gijon vs Tenerife 1:1
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: +$63.7875

Round 7
Malaga vs S. Gijon 1:0
Odds: 2.70
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 8
S. Gijon vs Ponferradina 2:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 9
Alcorcon vs S. Gijon 1:2
Odds: 2.70
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 10
S. Gijon vs Castellon 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 11
Mirandes vs S. Gijon 1:0
Odds: 2.62
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 12
S. Gijon vs Rayo Vallecano 1:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: +$66.065625

Round 13
Mallorca vs S. Gijon 0:0
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.70

Round 14
S. Gijon vs Sabadell 3:1
Odds: 3.50
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 15
Las Palmas vs S. Gijon 3:2
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 16
S. Gijon vs Albacete 0:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$22.95

Round 17
Espanyol vs S. Gijon 2:0
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 18
S. Gijon vs Zaragoza 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 19
S. Gijon vs Leganes 1:1
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$18.90

Round 20
Lugo vs S. Gijon 0:0
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.25

Round 21
S. Gijon vs Fuenlabrada 2:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 22
Castellon vs S. Gijon 2:0
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 23
S. Gijon vs Cartagena 0:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$20.25

Round 24
Logrones vs S. Gijon 0:4
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 25
S. Gijon vs Malaga 1:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 26
Albacete vs S. Gijon 0:1
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 27
S. Gijon vs Espanyol 1:1
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: +$27.84375

Round 28
Ponferradina vs S. Gijon 2:2
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.40

---

Ponferradina
 
Round 1
Ponferradina vs Castellon 1:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Albacete vs Ponferradina 0:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
Ponferradina vs Rayo Vallecano 3:0
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 4
Mirandes vs Ponferradina 0:1
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 5
Ponferradina vs Cartagena 0:2
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 6
Alcorcon vs Ponferradina 0:1
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: -$22.78125

Round 7
Ponferradina vs Tenerife 1:0
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $34.171875
Profit/Loss: -$34.171875

Round 8
Played against S. Gijon

Round 9
Espanyol vs Ponferradina 2:0
Odds: 3.75
Stake: $51.2578125
Profit/Loss: -$51.2578125

Round 10
Ponferradina vs Sabadell 0:3
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $76.88671875
Profit/Loss: -$76.88671875

Round 11
Mallorca vs Ponferradina 3:0
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $115.330078125
Profit/Loss: -$115.330078125

Round 12
Ponferradina vs Malaga 1:1
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $172.9951171875
Profit/Loss: +$484.386328125

Round 13
Ponferradina vs Zaragoza 2:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 14
Fuenlabrada vs Ponferradina 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: +$13.50

Round 15
Ponferradina vs Leganes 3:2
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 16
Logrones vs Ponferradina 1:2
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 17
Ponferradina vs Las Palmas 0:0
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 18
Lugo vs Ponferradina 1:0
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 19
Ponferradina vs R. Oviedo 1:0
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 20
Almeria vs Ponferradina 3:1
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: -$22.78125

Round 21
Ponferradina vs Girona 1:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $34.171875
Profit/Loss: +$99.0984375

Round 22
Malaga vs Ponferradina 0:2
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 23
Zaragoza vs Ponferradina 1:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 24
Ponferradina vs Alcorcon 2:0
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 25
Tenerife vs Ponferradina 1:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 26
Ponferradina vs Mirandes 1:0
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 27
Rayo Vallecano vs Ponferradina 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: +$68.34375

Round 28
Played against S. Gijon

Round 29
Cartagena vs Ponferradina 1:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.70
 

---

Comparisons between Betting Experiment #1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5318271.0) and #2 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5324017.0)

•   Betting experiment #1 generated a higher overall profit because the stake was always doubled compared to #2, where the stake money was multiplied by 1.5X.
•   I recorded overall losses for two teams with #1 because the winning odds weren’t high enough. Ideally, they should be 3.00 and higher to generate a profit for a 1.5x stake increase.
•   #1 required a bankroll of over $1.500 after 8 consecutive losses.
•   #2 only required a bankroll of over $330 after 11 consecutive lost matches.

Final Note: To remain profitable with betting experiment #2, your winning odds need to be 3.00 or higher. As you can see from my examples, the winning outcomes where the odds were 2.80 - 2.90 didn’t generate a profitable experience.

You seem to be having some problems on profit in your Liga MX and Laliga 2 experiment but that was not enough to upset the profits you got from the Ligue 2. Considering the amount you won in total, I think that this could be a viable strategy, hopefully more people are going to catch on to your experiment and try it themselves so we can collect their testimonies and formulate whether this could be a proven way to bet.

Good luck Pmalek... this is quite an interesting experiment you are doing, I read somewhere about this kind of experiment too but I'm glad that you put up some details on us to verify and follow. I'm into different sports, particularly basketball, local and international and my experiment is more on the bankroll management, parlay, and bet on teams that loses twice in a row and and try to chase if it loses in the 3rd game until the fifth using the martingale method.  

As long as your bankroll as big enough, it could work. You could also considering laying come correct scores on betting exchanges. Laying the 1-1 correct score is usually around 7.00 odds.

That could be a possibility but considering that @Pmalek got profit in the experiment, I think that it is worth the risk despite needing a large bankroll. That will be problematic for this experiment because you have to make sure that the score will stay that way and it is really difficult to predict the score on a draw.

Interesting experiment PMalek, I wonder if by backtesting this with previous season's games you could provide a result along time, that is for example 3 years of playing consistently this way. I am aware that is a lot of effort though.

To be honest, you could add some consideration for odds that just seem right versus those that are for any reason not that correct.

This is one of the most difficult aspects of sports betting. Well, its based on what your used to but, I'm sure this isn't me.

Nice experiment at Pmalek. At least they are all going in profit and your terms for league and team selection are squared. It's not easy to have the result your getting in that experiment but then, the emotions associated with real money is going to create some complications because, you only can have so many triers in individual games to be certain of some profit which remains a probability still.

Yes but if odds are higher, the likeliness to happen is lower... It means you are more likely to experience longer losing streaks and to end the season with a big loss or to void your bankroll before the end of the season with odds above 3.0

But how profitable has it been ? As I see this experiment might take a bit toll out of your money. How long would you continue it ? I do think that to make the experiment a success we do need a big collective Gambling by various players. I do think you should try and summarize all of this and submit the results and how it went on a blog since there are many on the internet but most of them are based on sheer mathematical calculations and at the same time you did do a lot of work here.

You should try and do the next experiment based on the : mathematics in sports gambling I do think you would have a bigger profit margin in that.

Eg. Of one such introductory source : https://www.investopedia.com/articles/dictionary/042215/understand-math-behind-betting-odds-gambling.asp (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/dictionary/042215/understand-math-behind-betting-odds-gambling.asp)

------

Exactly why I think that at the end of the day it's all on luck 🌚

Feel free to explain your strategy in more details in a separate thread or in a new post in this one if you want. Any system that can generate profits is worth considering. 

What do you mean with that? Are you talking about my personal opinions on why certain odds shouldn't be as high or as low as they are?

Not necessarily when it comes to draws in football. Take a look at the following screenshot from today's results in popular football leagues:

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/12/zUHNc.jpeg

As you can see, I marked the first two matches that have ended in a draw today when browsing from the top to the bottom on the site. Those are:

Radnik - Vojvodina from Serbia
Banfield - San Lorenzo from Argentina

The odds for draws in these two matches show odds of 3.40 for the 1st and 3.10 for the 2nd match. You can verify this yourself here > https://www.rezultati.com/

Martingale assumes the odds of each bet being a 50/50 probability split.

Where a lost bet significantly increases chances of the following bet being a winning one. That defines the strategy and motive behind raising the bet stake 1.5x after a loss.

You defined one major shortcoming of martingale above in your observation of 10 losses in a row being possible. An alternate strategy could be to reduce bet stake by 1.5x after a loss, while increasing it 1.5x after a win. Based on the concept of wins and losses coming in trends. Rather than 50/50 as martingale assumes.

Of course, it could be fair to say stake size isn't as important as overall accuracy.

Approaching it as a purely academic topic with no real money on the line. Versus having some capital wagered changes things significantly as well. It has a big impact on the decision making process.

Picking 2 outcomes is way too small for an accurate sample. You should take 20 or 30 matches at least on one bookmaker to be able to conclude something about its odds on draws.

If on 30 matches at 3.0 on this bookie you get more than 10 matches drawing 1/3.0x30=10 then you could conclude the bookie is offering overvalued odds and value bets.

It means you would win at least 11x(3.0-1)=22 units while losing only 19 ones, for 30 matches.

While with correct odds you would win 10x(3.0-1)=20 units while losing 30-10=20 units for 30 matches, that is to say nothing at the end.
(Of course I don't take into account the vigorish here)

Interesting...

I'm curious to see the results. Since bets on draws are so unpopular, this could actually mean that the odds on either team winning could become overpriced whilst the odds on draws are underpriced.

If there was to be a mispricing like this, betting over a large sample could reap a positive EV and lead to long term profits, if the hypothesis holds up. Of course, variance will be there in the short run - but you seem to have that under control with effective bankroll management.

Very interesting,
This must be really precise in the calculation if the end result want to be green and also the required funds must be sufficient, at least if using limited funds then the calculation must be correct, and I am not the type of bettor who is observant in doing calculations, especially the funds that will be used when doing bet on multiple matches.

I also stick to those words and add that I do not intend to distort the principle mentioned in the quote.

The first thing is to understand that the simple fact of not doubling the bet is no Martingale in its theoretical essence, on the other ideas to project the profit or the loss , one should at least do that if he is going to be a frequent gambler. Thanks for the thorough example.

On the other hand in experiment #1 8 consecutive losses gives me a bet size of $384 and in the second, 11 consecutive takes me to a bet size of $173 in any case, they are only numbers, but the important thing is that no It is bankroll, the real issue here is that for you to successfully apply any strategy of this type lies in that bet size you make, for my tastes you should have 100 times "bet size" in your bankroll, as in this case 1.5x100. For those who like risk and re-deposit 10x1.5= bankroll.

No bet should be the size of your bankroll.

In my particular opinion the long term based on the appropriate bet size is always better than wanting to double the bet to get everything back today.

I like Pmalek experiments because they remind me of the kind of research that you need to do in trading, but as you say there is an enormous difference with actually trying the strategy and just think of this as a mental experiment and we see the same in trading, there are some people that are very successful paper trading the markets and they think they are ready for the real thing and as soon as they take that leap they begin to accumulate losses as they cannot trade with the same effectiveness now that money is on the line.

Thank you for sharing your new results. Your experiments are noteworthy. It turns out that if you use your first strategy you need to have a much larger bankroll compared to using the new strategy. If you increase the initial bet in the second experiment, it will lead to an increase in the necessary bankroll for successful play, respectively, will significantly increase profits.

The results of Betting Experiment #2 could be improved in two ways:

1. You bet on draws on matches with odds of 3.00 and higher ONLY.
2. You increase the stake by 2x instead of 1.5x after a loss.

Both strategies require deeper pockets, but when you win, you win more. Don't rule out the possibility that you will have to make bets of a few $1000s to stay afloat though. 

Yes, I am well aware of the consequences of high stakes when using the Martingale strategy. I have bitter experience. Do you plan to further modify the strategy with these improvements and a new experiment?

My initial plan was to conduct the experiment by increasing the stake 2 times after every loss. But doing a third one just to increase the wager a bit more doesn't seem that useful. I am planning to do some other things soon, but if I can think of another strategy or someone suggests one that I find appealing, I will surely do another experiment.

Why do people try again and again something that is perfectly proven by math and by practice that eventually produces and event that will send your balance to zero? That is, I could understand that from a 10 year old - a silly one only - but we all known that everything based on doubling the bet is just nil.

Any experiment involving martingale is doomed to fail.

No, it's not. Both these experiments prove that it's all down to luck. Yes, you can lose your money, but you can do that with any other bet using a specific strategy or just betting randomly. Having said that, I don't think Martingale is a good strategy. It's certainly not bulletproof otherwise it would have been made illegal by the bookies.   

If you have enough money, it could work for sure. But you need a good bankroll management and make sure the limits are in your favor. Draws usually are around 3 or 4 with equal teams. Try Russian games.

Yes, the strategy is quite interesting, but there are drawbacks. First, it is quite possible that you will have to fail for a very long time, and in this case, morale disappears, and you will want to send everything to hell. For such a strategy, you need pockets full of money, which is not a pity to lose, since the amounts can reach up to several thousand, so not everyone can afford it. There is another point. What should people who make BTC sports betting (https://sportsbetter.io/) do? As we know, BTC is much more expensive than the dollar, and it will not be possible to increase each loss by one and a half or two times, since it is too expensive. You can say that such people can switch to dollars, but it is more convenient to bet with bitcoins and these people are used to it. In general, I think that we need to refine this strategy.

This is actually an interesting experiment but the problem with gambling still remains no experiment stands the test of time even if it plays out most times the ratio isn't encouraging at all and one might end up loosing huge fortune before ever making a profit from it. This isn't a plan to discourage anyone but to dive into the process with caution

This kind of "experiments" can take some getting used to in the long run. You should not be surprised if there is no draw for a long time in a row. is in principle also a matter of luck and good bankroll management. And don't get on tilt. Maybe laying the draw would give you more chances to win.

Don't hesitate to explain in more details.

That's both a positive and negative side of gambling. At any moment in time, you can lose everything, but you can also win. A player needs to be aware of what he is doing and never play with more money than he is ready to lose. It's the oldest advice one can give but still so many fail to respect it.

There are many people who have successfully tested such strategies. Often they are hit once, and then want to compensate for the loss as quickly as possible, and that's where it all goes wrong. If you lose once, you will have to accept that and not take an increased risk because then things often go wrong and tilt occurs faster than we think. I think that you should play at betting exchanges, since you can use the lay option there. Bookmakers do not offer them.

ya.ya.yo!

That is normal because people will be curious about what they did, and if they do not see a good result, they will not stop unless they have control to see what happens in gambling. We might think that does not make sense, but that is not what they think. They will try hard with so many strategies until they can feel the winning. But they will hard to win the gambling games, especially if they do not think much about luck.

Bump

Thanks for the interesting topic, I'm surprised that with a sufficiently large number of bets, you are in the black, congratulations  :)
I would like to clarify this: why are you upping a topic if the experiment is over? (or am I wrong and it continues?)

The experiment is over but the topic can still be bumped for visibility from time to time. Nothing different from what many other members are doing. Just because it's over it doesn't mean that it needs to be buried and forgotten I think. ;)

What's the overall result of the experiment? I checked the OP and you didn't do an edit for the final results. Also, I am on your side regarding bumping this because it's pretty useful for other players to try your strategy.

It is interesting, maybe some bettors who also uses this kind of experiment will share their testimonies so we can also compile if this is effective in winning to gambling. I've played with no rules and just play what I think is right, no formulation or what and the result is surely lost. LOL. I lose maybe 2 times last week online. Maybe I should also try my luck next time and maybe try some formulation or experiment that is slightly the same as what have you done. Maybe it is also better to share and edit your post of the result of your game using your experiment so we can share this with others.

Okay, I understand you. Should I wait for Experiment 3? As I understand it, you made a good profit on Experiment 2, so why not continue these experiments? Considering that now there are two championships of different continents, there will be no shortcomings in the matches.

Paris Fc, Sochaux and Atlas gave you a convincing profit but how often would this experiment play out. Still wondering why the other experiment failed  but it was a nice try discovering something that could have served as a winning chance if it all worked out well since gambling remains a game of luck no matter the tactics employed to execute the odds. Thanks for sharing

All results, odds, and the total loss/profit for each team is posted in the second post (below OP). And at the end of the 2nd post you can see the overall virtual profit that could have been made.

Maybe, if I can think of a new strategy to try out. I need to mention one more time that I didn't gamble with real money. I am just using math to calculate the profit or losses if I did.

It failed because once the match eventually ended with a draw, the odds weren't big enough to generate an overall profit. Since I increased the starting bet 1.5 times, the winning odds must be 3.0 or higher for me to stay profitable. That wasn't the case for many matches.

Why not use the old strategy, taking into account the fact that it has shown its profitability? It would be more interesting to test it on a larger number of bets and on other teams. At least you are not risking anything (if you play with the money you won). I understand that this is a kind of Martingale and there is a risk of losing everything ... but there is always a risk.

Seeing the thread title and the name of the topic's author, I already thought that Pmalek is testing his new strategy.

Pmalek, are you aware of any cases when someone used one of your strategies when playing for real money?

It turned out to be profitable on paper, but you never know how it's going to play out in real life. You need a lot of money to buy yourself out of trouble in case of multiple losses in a row. As the experiments have shown, it's more then possible to go through a losing streak of 10 or more matches. To stay in the game, you would need $100s or $1000s per team. Several users have said that the casinos wont limit or ban you from following certain "strategies", but if it still happens while you are down a few grand, it doesn't look so good.   

No, not really. No one came forward and said they did. :)

To begin with, it would be useful to test these strategies in real bets, at least in micro-sums. The advantage of such small bets, even if you constantly win, is that they are not interesting for bookmakers and they will not limit you. If we talk about larger amounts, then if you divide these bets between two or three bookmakers, then your overall strategy will remain elusive for them.

My two cents .... It seems to me that one of the teams participating in the Premier League and occupying 7/11th place in the table would be suitable for the third experiment ... (judging by previous seasons). The outcome of matches with the participation of such teams in a third of the cases ends in a draw, which is great if you bet on "Draw & under 2.5" (the coefficient is almost always equal to 3.5/4 + in case of loss, x1.5).

If I do another test run, I would like to try out something else than betting on draws. I have already done two experiments that incorporate betting on draws as part of the strategy. If you didn't check my first one, here is a link to it: My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment.  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5318271.0)

I have been thinking of finding something with asian handicaps. That system would give players a chance to win their whole bets, half of it, have their stakes returned, lose half, or lose all. It depends on the type of AH being used.

Do you have any research/speculation about the odds at these bets? I mean the bookmaker's advantage. As far as I know, the more difficult the bet, the higher the bookmaker's advantage, for example, in multi-bet the bookmaker's advantage is the higher the more events in this bet.

They can be anything. It really depends on how big of a favourite or underdog the team you are betting on is. I haven't given much thought to it.

As an example. The odds on Italy beating Austria tonight are around 1.50.
A -1 AH on Italy is 1.90. In case Italy wins by two goals difference, you win the bet. If they win with just one goal difference, your stake is returned. For all other results, you lose the bet.

A -0.5/-1 AH on Italy is also not bad. That incorporates two bets. Half of your stake is on Italy to win by a one goal margin, the other half is on them to win by two or more goals. So this bet allows you to win half or the whole bet, and you can also lose everything in case of a draw or Italy loss. Odds should be around 1.60-1.65 depending on the bookie. 

The first bet looks adequate and the odds are quite acceptable. As for the second bet, I did not understand how the odds here can be higher than for the event of a simple victory for Italy (1.6 > 1.5)  or is 1.6 - 1.65 odds obtained only in case of a win with a two-goal difference?

Yes, Italy would have to win with two or more goals difference for you to win the whole bet. A 2:0 Italy win would get you $165 on a $100 bet. If Italy wins only 1:0, your reward would only be $132.50. As you can see, you don't win as much on that AH bet as you would betting on a simple Italy win if your team only wins with a one-goal difference. You have to win both bets that make up the AH for maximum profit.

Now I understand. But this bet seems very unprofitable to me. If we want reliability, then it is easier to take a simple victory for Italy, and if we want large large odds, then it is better to take the exact score and divide the money between the bets four outcomes (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1). In my opinion, the profit here will be higher and the risk is comparable.

This was an intresting experiment. Didnt know someone would chase the draw. But with the most of the leagues you selected most of them were in profit but once as i see it got out of hand. If you have a big bankroll this can be a good method to win money. Just need to find those teams that draw a lot