Betting Experiment #2: Chasing the Draw

[Pmalek]

This is my second betting experiment which I call Chasing the Draw. A few weeks ago, I wrote about My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment. The idea there was to bet on draws when your selected team plays at home and on them to win when they play away from home. Just like in the first experiment, I haven’t played with real money. This is just a compilation of the team’s results to show what would have happened if you were betting in this way.

I selected six football teams: Two from the French Ligue 2, two from the Mexican Liga MX, and two from the Spanish Laliga 2.   

The selected teams:

•   Paris FC
•   Sochaux
•   Santos Laguna
•   Atlas
•   Sporting Gijon
•   Ponferradina

Why these teams and leagues?

I picked the teams positioned in the 5th and 7th place in their respective leagues when the experiment began. The idea was not to bet on the favourites because they win most of their matches. These leagues are some of the most evenly-contested competitions where many games end in draws.

I took screenshots of the league tables when the experiment started.

Ligue 2 – France

Liga MX – Mexico

Laliga 2 – Spain

The betting system

These are the rules for the Martingale system I applied:

•   Every time my selected teams play, I bet on draws (X).
•   If the bet losses, I multiple the stake by 1.5x for the next match. ($3.00 > $4.50 > $6.75, etc.). I continue multiplying the stake money until my selection wins.
•   When the team draws, the cycle restarts with the initial stake amount.

Why these selections?

Draws in football matches are very common, and the odds on these outcomes are generally rewarding. I initially wanted to try this system by doubling the stake every time my selections lost (same as in my 1st betting experiment). But Trofo suggested that it’s a good idea to increase the stake by 1.5x instead. This allows for better bankroll management and less money invested.

Are there any risks with this system?

As you will see in the team results in the 2nd post, you may experience over 10 losses in a row. In that case, you’ll need enough money to continue playing the system. If the winning odds aren’t high enough, you won’t register any profits even if your selection wins. That’s because you are increasing the stake by 1.5x and not by 2x.

How I choose to bet, and what profit/losses did I make?

•   My initial stake is always $3.
•   In the 2nd post, you will see a complete overview of each team’s results during the 2020/2021 football season. This includes the opponents, the odds for draws, stake money, and final results.
•   A profit/loss count is posted after every round. All odds were taken from a local live score https://www.rezultati.com/.
•   I think they use bet365 as a reference for their odds. The good thing is that the odds on crypto bookies are higher than on bet365 and many other fiat bookies.
•   All posted odds are from rezultati.com and show the X betting selections, respectively.
•   All results were taken from that site and compared with official stats at https://www.ligue2.fr/, https://ligamx.net/, and https://www.laliga.com/.


THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE, AND SHOULDN’T BE CONSIDERED AS SUCH!
THIS IS WRITTEN FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY! 

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[Pmalek]

Paris FC
 
Round 1
Chambly vs Paris FC 0:3
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Paris FC vs Valenciennes 1:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
Amiens vs Paris FC 1:2
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 4
Paris FC vs Nancy 0:2
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 5
Niort vs Paris FC 2:2
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: +$42.525

Round 6
Paris FC vs Le Havre 3:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 7
Paris FC vs Pau FC 1:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 8
Chateauroux vs Paris FC 1:2
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 9
Paris FC vs Caen 3:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 10
Dunkerque vs Paris FC 0:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 11
Paris FC vs Auxerre 0:3
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: -$22.78125

Round 12
Grenoble vs Paris FC 0:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $34.171875
Profit/Loss: +$102.515625

Round 13
Paris FC vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$9.00

Round 14
Troyes vs Paris FC 3:1
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 15
Paris FC vs Rodez 1:1
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: +$14.85

Round 16
Clermont vs Paris FC 3:2
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 17
Paris FC vs Guingamp 3:2
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 18
Toulouse vs Paris FC 1:0
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 19
Paris FC vs AC Ajaccio 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: +$30.375

Round 20
Valenciennes vs Paris FC 2:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 21
Paris FC vs Amiens 4:2
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 22
Nancy vs Paris FC 1:1
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$21.60

Round 23
Paris FC vs Niort 3:3
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$10.80

Round 24
Le Havre vs Paris FC 1:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 25
Pau FC vs Paris FC 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: +$13.50

Round 26
Paris FC vs Chateauroux 1:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 27
Caen vs Paris FC 0:2
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 28
Paris FC vs Dunkerque 1:0
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Total profit/loss for Paris FC: +$35.21

Sochaux
 
Round 1
Auxerre vs Sochaux 0:2
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Sochaux vs Troyes 2:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
Toulouse vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$20.925

Round 4
Sochaux vs Rodez 2:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.70

Round 5
AC Ajaccio vs Sochaux 1:1
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.25

Round 6
Sochaux vs Chambly 3:2
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 7
Valenciennes vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: +$13.95

Round 8
Sochaux vs Amiens 0:2
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 9
Guingamp vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: +$13.95

Round 10
Sochaux vs Niort 3:4
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 11
Chateauroux vs Sochaux 2:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 12
Sochaux vs Le Havre 4:0
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 13
Played against Paris FC

Round 14
Sochaux vs Nancy 1:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: +$29.3625

Round 15
Pau FC vs Sochaux 0:0
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.25

Round 16
Sochaux vs Grenoble 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$9.00

Round 17
Caen vs Sochaux 1:4
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 18
Sochaux vs Dunkerque 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 19
Sochaux vs Clermont 0:0
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$19.3725

Round 20
Troyes vs Sochaux 2:1
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 21
Sochaux vs Toulouse 0:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 22
Rodez vs Sochaux 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$20.25

Round 23
Sochaux vs AC Ajaccio 0:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 24
Chambly vs Sochaux 1:4
Odds: 2,80
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 25
Sochaux vs Valenciennes 2:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 26
Amiens vs Sochaux 0:1
Odds: 2,80
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 27
Sochaux vs Guingamp 0:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: +$45.5625

Round 28
Niort vs Sochaux 1:3
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Total profit/loss for Sochaux: +$60.88

Santos Laguna
 
Round 1
Santos Laguna vs Cruz Azul 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Santos Laguna vs Tigres 2:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
Mazatlan FC vs Santos Laguna 0:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$22.275

Round 4
Santos Laguna vs Club America 0:0
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$10.80

Round 5
Atlas vs Santos Laguna 1:1
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$9.60

Round 6
Santos Laguna vs Monterrey 1:0
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 7
Atl. San Luis vs Santos Laguna 1:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 8
Santos Laguna vs Juarez 3:2
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 9
U.N.A.M. vs Santos Laguna 1:0
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 10
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa 3:1
Odds: 3.75
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Total profit/loss for Santos Laguna: -$17.13

Atlas
 
Round 1
Atlas vs Monterrey 0:2
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Queretaro vs Atlas 1:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
Atlas vs Tigres 0:2
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 4
U.N.A.M. vs Atlas 0:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: +$31.3875

Round 5
Played against Santos Laguna

Round 6
Pachuca vs Atlas 0:1
Odds: 3.30
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 7
Atlas vs Club America 3:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 8
Toluca vs Atlas 0:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$22.95

Round 9
Atlas vs Atl. San Luis 3:1
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 10
Atlas vs Juarez 2:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Total profit/loss for Santos Laguna: +$8.21

S. Gijon
 
Round 1
S. Gijon vs Logrones 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Cartagena vs S. Gijon 0:1
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
S. Gijon vs Girona 2:0
Odds: 2.70
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 4
Almeria vs S. Gijon 0:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 5
R. Oviedo vs S. Gijon 1:0
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 6
S. Gijon vs Tenerife 1:1
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: +$63.7875

Round 7
Malaga vs S. Gijon 1:0
Odds: 2.70
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 8
S. Gijon vs Ponferradina 2:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 9
Alcorcon vs S. Gijon 1:2
Odds: 2.70
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 10
S. Gijon vs Castellon 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 11
Mirandes vs S. Gijon 1:0
Odds: 2.62
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 12
S. Gijon vs Rayo Vallecano 1:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: +$66.065625

Round 13
Mallorca vs S. Gijon 0:0
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.70

Round 14
S. Gijon vs Sabadell 3:1
Odds: 3.50
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 15
Las Palmas vs S. Gijon 3:2
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 16
S. Gijon vs Albacete 0:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$22.95

Round 17
Espanyol vs S. Gijon 2:0
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 18
S. Gijon vs Zaragoza 1:0
Odds: 3.20
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 19
S. Gijon vs Leganes 1:1
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$18.90

Round 20
Lugo vs S. Gijon 0:0
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.25

Round 21
S. Gijon vs Fuenlabrada 2:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 22
Castellon vs S. Gijon 2:0
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 23
S. Gijon vs Cartagena 0:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: +$20.25

Round 24
Logrones vs S. Gijon 0:4
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 25
S. Gijon vs Malaga 1:0
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 26
Albacete vs S. Gijon 0:1
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 27
S. Gijon vs Espanyol 1:1
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: +$27.84375

Round 28
Ponferradina vs S. Gijon 2:2
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.40

Total profit/loss for S. Gijon: +$44.33

Ponferradina
 
Round 1
Ponferradina vs Castellon 1:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 2
Albacete vs Ponferradina 0:2
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 3
Ponferradina vs Rayo Vallecano 3:0
Odds: 3.60
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 4
Mirandes vs Ponferradina 0:1
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 5
Ponferradina vs Cartagena 0:2
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 6
Alcorcon vs Ponferradina 0:1
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: -$22.78125

Round 7
Ponferradina vs Tenerife 1:0
Odds: 2.75
Stake: $34.171875
Profit/Loss: -$34.171875

Round 8
Played against S. Gijon

Round 9
Espanyol vs Ponferradina 2:0
Odds: 3.75
Stake: $51.2578125
Profit/Loss: -$51.2578125

Round 10
Ponferradina vs Sabadell 0:3
Odds: 3.10
Stake: $76.88671875
Profit/Loss: -$76.88671875

Round 11
Mallorca vs Ponferradina 3:0
Odds: 3.25
Stake: $115.330078125
Profit/Loss: -$115.330078125

Round 12
Ponferradina vs Malaga 1:1
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $172.9951171875
Profit/Loss: +$484.386328125

Round 13
Ponferradina vs Zaragoza 2:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 14
Fuenlabrada vs Ponferradina 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: +$13.50

Round 15
Ponferradina vs Leganes 3:2
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 16
Logrones vs Ponferradina 1:2
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 17
Ponferradina vs Las Palmas 0:0
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 18
Lugo vs Ponferradina 1:0
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 19
Ponferradina vs R. Oviedo 1:0
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 20
Almeria vs Ponferradina 3:1
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: -$22.78125

Round 21
Ponferradina vs Girona 1:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $34.171875
Profit/Loss: +$99.0984375

Round 22
Malaga vs Ponferradina 0:2
Odds: 2.80
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: -$3.00

Round 23
Zaragoza vs Ponferradina 1:0
Odds: 3.40
Stake: $4.50
Profit/Loss: -$4.50

Round 24
Ponferradina vs Alcorcon 2:0
Odds: 2.87
Stake: $6.75
Profit/Loss: -$6.75

Round 25
Tenerife vs Ponferradina 1:0
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $10.125
Profit/Loss: -$10.125

Round 26
Ponferradina vs Mirandes 1:0
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $15.1875
Profit/Loss: -$15.1875

Round 27
Rayo Vallecano vs Ponferradina 1:1
Odds: 3.00
Stake: $22.78125
Profit/Loss: +$68.34375

Round 28
Played against S. Gijon

Round 29
Cartagena vs Ponferradina 1:1
Odds: 2.90
Stake: $3.00
Profit/Loss: +$8.70
 

Total profit/loss for Ponferradina: -$8.31

Total profit made at the end of the experiment: $123.19

[Pmalek]

Comparisons between Betting Experiment #1 and #2

•   Betting experiment #1 generated a higher overall profit because the stake was always doubled compared to #2, where the stake money was multiplied by 1.5X.
•   I recorded overall losses for two teams with #1 because the winning odds weren’t high enough. Ideally, they should be 3.00 and higher to generate a profit for a 1.5x stake increase.
•   #1 required a bankroll of over $1.500 after 8 consecutive losses.
•   #2 only required a bankroll of over $330 after 11 consecutive lost matches.

Final Note: To remain profitable with betting experiment #2, your winning odds need to be 3.00 or higher. As you can see from my examples, the winning outcomes where the odds were 2.80 - 2.90 didn’t generate a profitable experience.

[Lorence.xD]

You seem to be having some problems on profit in your Liga MX and Laliga 2 experiment but that was not enough to upset the profits you got from the Ligue 2. Considering the amount you won in total, I think that this could be a viable strategy, hopefully more people are going to catch on to your experiment and try it themselves so we can collect their testimonies and formulate whether this could be a proven way to bet.

[Ziskinberg]

Good luck Pmalek... this is quite an interesting experiment you are doing, I read somewhere about this kind of experiment too but I'm glad that you put up some details on us to verify and follow. I'm into different sports, particularly basketball, local and international and my experiment is more on the bankroll management, parlay, and bet on teams that loses twice in a row and and try to chase if it loses in the 3rd game until the fifth using the martingale method.  

[VanityWallets2015]

As long as your bankroll as big enough, it could work. You could also considering laying come correct scores on betting exchanges. Laying the 1-1 correct score is usually around 7.00 odds.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

As long as your bankroll as big enough, it could work. You could also considering laying come correct scores on betting exchanges. Laying the 1-1 correct score is usually around 7.00 odds.

That could be a possibility but considering that @Pmalek got profit in the experiment, I think that it is worth the risk despite needing a large bankroll. That will be problematic for this experiment because you have to make sure that the score will stay that way and it is really difficult to predict the score on a draw.

[paxmao]

Interesting experiment PMalek, I wonder if by backtesting this with previous season's games you could provide a result along time, that is for example 3 years of playing consistently this way. I am aware that is a lot of effort though.

To be honest, you could add some consideration for odds that just seem right versus those that are for any reason not that correct.

[Smartvirus]

As long as your bankroll as big enough, it could work. You could also considering laying come correct scores on betting exchanges. Laying the 1-1 correct score is usually around 7.00 odds.

This is one of the most difficult aspects of sports betting. Well, its based on what your used to but, I'm sure this isn't me.

Nice experiment at Pmalek. At least they are all going in profit and your terms for league and team selection are squared. It's not easy to have the result your getting in that experiment but then, the emotions associated with real money is going to create some complications because, you only can have so many triers in individual games to be certain of some profit which remains a probability still.

[Saint-loup]

Final Note: To remain profitable with betting experiment #2, your winning odds need to be 3.00 or higher. As you can see from my examples, the winning outcomes where the odds were 2.80 - 2.90 didn’t generate a profitable experience.

Yes but if odds are higher, the likeliness to happen is lower... It means you are more likely to experience longer losing streaks and to end the season with a big loss or to void your bankroll before the end of the season with odds above 3.0

[fiulpro]

But how profitable has it been ? As I see this experiment might take a bit toll out of your money. How long would you continue it ? I do think that to make the experiment a success we do need a big collective Gambling by various players. I do think you should try and summarize all of this and submit the results and how it went on a blog since there are many on the internet but most of them are based on sheer mathematical calculations and at the same time you did do a lot of work here.

You should try and do the next experiment based on the : mathematics in sports gambling I do think you would have a bigger profit margin in that.

Eg. Of one such introductory source : https://www.investopedia.com/articles/dictionary/042215/understand-math-behind-betting-odds-gambling.asp

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Final Note: To remain profitable with betting experiment #2, your winning odds need to be 3.00 or higher. As you can see from my examples, the winning outcomes where the odds were 2.80 - 2.90 didn’t generate a profitable experience.

Yes but if odds are higher, the likeliness to happen is lower... It means you are more likely to experience longer losing streaks and to end the season with a big loss or to void your bankroll before the end of the season with odds above 3.0

Exactly why I think that at the end of the day it's all on luck 🌚

[Pmalek]

I'm into different sports, particularly basketball, local and international and my experiment is more on the bankroll management, parlay, and bet on teams that loses twice in a row and and try to chase if it loses in the 3rd game until the fifth using the martingale method.

Feel free to explain your strategy in more details in a separate thread or in a new post in this one if you want. Any system that can generate profits is worth considering. 

To be honest, you could add some consideration for odds that just seem right versus those that are for any reason not that correct.

What do you mean with that? Are you talking about my personal opinions on why certain odds shouldn't be as high or as low as they are?

Yes but if odds are higher, the likeliness to happen is lower... It means you are more likely to experience longer losing streaks and to end the season with a big loss or to void your bankroll before the end of the season with odds above 3.0

Not necessarily when it comes to draws in football. Take a look at the following screenshot from today's results in popular football leagues:



As you can see, I marked the first two matches that have ended in a draw today when browsing from the top to the bottom on the site. Those are:

Radnik - Vojvodina from Serbia
Banfield - San Lorenzo from Argentina

The odds for draws in these two matches show odds of 3.40 for the 1st and 3.10 for the 2nd match. You can verify this yourself here > https://www.rezultati.com/

[Hydrogen]

These are the rules for the Martingale system I applied:

•   If the bet losses, I multiple the stake by 1.5x for the next match.

As you will see in the team results in the 2nd post, you may experience over 10 losses in a row.

Martingale assumes the odds of each bet being a 50/50 probability split.

Where a lost bet significantly increases chances of the following bet being a winning one. That defines the strategy and motive behind raising the bet stake 1.5x after a loss.

You defined one major shortcoming of martingale above in your observation of 10 losses in a row being possible. An alternate strategy could be to reduce bet stake by 1.5x after a loss, while increasing it 1.5x after a win. Based on the concept of wins and losses coming in trends. Rather than 50/50 as martingale assumes.

Of course, it could be fair to say stake size isn't as important as overall accuracy.

Approaching it as a purely academic topic with no real money on the line. Versus having some capital wagered changes things significantly as well. It has a big impact on the decision making process.

[Saint-loup]

Yes but if odds are higher, the likeliness to happen is lower... It means you are more likely to experience longer losing streaks and to end the season with a big loss or to void your bankroll before the end of the season with odds above 3.0

Not necessarily when it comes to draws in football. Take a look at the following screenshot from today's results in popular football leagues:



As you can see, I marked the first two matches that have ended in a draw today when browsing from the top to the bottom on the site. Those are:

Radnik - Vojvodina from Serbia
Banfield - San Lorenzo from Argentina

The odds for draws in these two matches show odds of 3.40 for the 1st and 3.10 for the 2nd match. You can verify this yourself here > https://www.rezultati.com/

Picking 2 outcomes is way too small for an accurate sample. You should take 20 or 30 matches at least on one bookmaker to be able to conclude something about its odds on draws.

If on 30 matches at 3.0 on this bookie you get more than 10 matches drawing 1/3.0x30=10 then you could conclude the bookie is offering overvalued odds and value bets.

It means you would win at least 11x(3.0-1)=22 units while losing only 19 ones, for 30 matches.

While with correct odds you would win 10x(3.0-1)=20 units while losing 30-10=20 units for 30 matches, that is to say nothing at the end.
(Of course I don't take into account the vigorish here)

[magneto]

Interesting...

I'm curious to see the results. Since bets on draws are so unpopular, this could actually mean that the odds on either team winning could become overpriced whilst the odds on draws are underpriced.

If there was to be a mispricing like this, betting over a large sample could reap a positive EV and lead to long term profits, if the hypothesis holds up. Of course, variance will be there in the short run - but you seem to have that under control with effective bankroll management.

[Strongkored]

Very interesting,
This must be really precise in the calculation if the end result want to be green and also the required funds must be sufficient, at least if using limited funds then the calculation must be correct, and I am not the type of bettor who is observant in doing calculations, especially the funds that will be used when doing bet on multiple matches.

[famososMuertos]

THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE, AND SHOULDN’T BE CONSIDERED AS SUCH!
THIS IS WRITTEN FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY!

I also stick to those words and add that I do not intend to distort the principle mentioned in the quote.

The first thing is to understand that the simple fact of not doubling the bet is no Martingale in its theoretical essence, on the other ideas to project the profit or the loss , one should at least do that if he is going to be a frequent gambler. Thanks for the thorough example.

On the other hand in experiment #1 8 consecutive losses gives me a bet size of $384 and in the second, 11 consecutive takes me to a bet size of $173 in any case, they are only numbers, but the important thing is that no It is bankroll, the real issue here is that for you to successfully apply any strategy of this type lies in that bet size you make, for my tastes you should have 100 times "bet size" in your bankroll, as in this case 1.5x100. For those who like risk and re-deposit 10x1.5= bankroll.

No bet should be the size of your bankroll.

In my particular opinion the long term based on the appropriate bet size is always better than wanting to double the bet to get everything back today.

[Silberman]

Approaching it as a purely academic topic with no real money on the line. Versus having some capital wagered changes things significantly as well. It has a big impact on the decision making process.

I like Pmalek experiments because they remind me of the kind of research that you need to do in trading, but as you say there is an enormous difference with actually trying the strategy and just think of this as a mental experiment and we see the same in trading, there are some people that are very successful paper trading the markets and they think they are ready for the real thing and as soon as they take that leap they begin to accumulate losses as they cannot trade with the same effectiveness now that money is on the line.

[madnessteat]

Thank you for sharing your new results. Your experiments are noteworthy. It turns out that if you use your first strategy you need to have a much larger bankroll compared to using the new strategy. If you increase the initial bet in the second experiment, it will lead to an increase in the necessary bankroll for successful play, respectively, will significantly increase profits.

[Pmalek]

If you increase the initial bet in the second experiment, it will lead to an increase in the necessary bankroll for successful play, respectively, will significantly increase profits.

The results of Betting Experiment #2 could be improved in two ways:

1. You bet on draws on matches with odds of 3.00 and higher ONLY.
2. You increase the stake by 2x instead of 1.5x after a loss.

Both strategies require deeper pockets, but when you win, you win more. Don't rule out the possibility that you will have to make bets of a few $1000s to stay afloat though.