Bitcoin Forum

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I think everybody is familiar about Bitcoin halving. Every four years the reward that miners receive for finding a block will cut in half. The day the amount halves is called a "halving".

Bitcoin Halving Dates History
Take a look at the previous three halvings.

2012 Halving
The 2012 block halving was the first halving and happened on November 28th, 2012. The halving block was mined by SlushPool by someone using a Radeon HD 5800 miner.

New BTC Per Block Before: 50 BTC per block
New BTC Per Block After: 25 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $12.35
Price 150 Days Later: $127.00

2016 Halving
The second halving occurred on July 9th, 2016.

New BTC Per Block Before: 25 BTC per block
New BTC Per Block After: 12.5 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $650.63
Price 150 Days Later: $758.81

2020 Halving
The third halving occurred on May 11, 2020.

New BTC Per Block Before: 12.5 BTC per block
New BTC Per Block After: 6.25 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $8821.42
Price 150 Days Later: $10,943.00

Above data source: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-clock/

In the 2024 halving, the reward will drop from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.

What will the Bitcoin price be at next halving after 2024? Can you guys share your opinion?  

You can not predict anything because bitcoin has yet topped up after the 2020 halving. After bitcoin tops up for this halving and the market turns from bullish to bearish, you will have data to predict for 2024 halving.

If you want to predict it and don't want to wait, you can use Stock to Flow model from PlanB that is used to model Bitcoin Value with Scarcity (https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25)

well, when we wait for the moment of 2024, the distance from 2021 today will be a lot of ups and downs in the price of bitcoin. like when the price of bitcoin before halving in 2020, the price of bitcoin had dropped below $ 10,000. to prepare for the next halving, it is possible that we will be given the opportunity to have quite a lot of bitcoin. because to arrive in 2024 is still quite a long time.

As for the estimated price in 2024, in my opinion and this is based on assumptions or guesses, around a price above $ 150,000 will be a pretty fantastic price.

it is impossible to predict the price at next halving when we have not yet begun this rally with its bubble. first this cycle has to be concluded so that we can see whether the "cycles" are going to be broken or not and if they are then the next target is going to be wildly different and if they are not then again the next target depends a lot on the ATH price that this cycles ends with.

if we assume the same cycle continues and price reaches $500k then the bubble burst has to be 80% too and it has to drop down to $100k and by the time halving is reached it has to be up to $300k.

so the answer by extrapolating data is $300k

If we're going to make predictions based on past price movement, probably one of the best models to follow is PlanB's S2F[1]. Based on the model, bitcoin should be some around $115k. So to add some room for price fluctuations, probably $80k-140k or so.

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[1] https://digitalik.net/btc/

Trump will be president and save Bitcoin... ;)

There is no proof of causal relationship between Bitcoin halving and the price going up. Bitcoin tends to rise overall throughout its history, and linking this tendency to halvings is just one way to look at it. It's especially so because the price doesn't even rise rightaway, it just rises at some point and people say it's all because of the long-term halving effect. It's just a mere correlation, a way of putting separate events together as if they're actually related to one another. So regarding the price of Bitcoin in 2024, it's very hard to make reasonable predictions, considering how significantly Bitcoin price has grown already over the years. And it's also hard to determine whether halving will have anything to do with the price.

As a rule of thumb, bitcoin will have a good price gain. However, the crypto market has many fluctuations and no one can predict it, I personally think it will increase in price but that is only my speculation without any proof.

Definitely the GO-TO model which has a proven record.

There is a very simple rule of thumb we can use for each halving Supply and Demand.

It might be a psychological thing but directly after each halving there is definitely more buy
demand which settles 12 months after until the next event, essentially Bull to Bear to Bull
markets, its cyclical.

IMHO, there always been a relationship when bitcoin halves and the result of it always going to make bitcoin's price increase. Miners reward are becoming lesser and that makes it the cost of mining higher and its difficulty. The quantity of the reward is lesser whilst the price of it should go up.

And that has been seen for the past years and last year's halving should have been taken effect this year but it seems that the expected sudden price increase had happened earlier.

Price is currently being manipulated very hard by the Institutional investors and believe me, once they start their huge sell-off, then the confidence level of everyone in crypto will be completely shaken, so it won't be like everything going green today will always be green. Whatever goes up, comes down said Newton, remember that.

I say it's too early for that, can't even speculate for the next year's price value. With such long, price will be ups and down but one thing it will be double or triple for the price today.

   Are you out of topics to start? We can't talk about the price of bitcoin during the next halving in 2024 when we may to even correctly get the price prior to the halving, if you have been observant this bull run of 2020 ending shocked many even the best optimist, I think the next bitcoin halving is a very long way to go, so much can happen in between the years gap.

You guys are already predicting the next pump after the halving?? Isn't it too early? We aren't even out of the current pump, why don't you guys find the peak of the current pump first then let Btc dump and then we'll figure out about next pump
.
It's not about quantum of reward it's about the flow of supply of btc. There are a lot of articles which have focused on finding btc value using stock to flow model. This price increases sort of match with the thesis of that model.

As per history, we might not determine which exact value bitcoin will fall on 2024, since we already know the volatility of the market. It could be positive or a negative impact in every definite situations, because it just depends on the whales who've invested their fortune with btc.
Without them, and the strong bonds from small investors who've take a ride since from the start of bullrun; we can't make what has been established right now.
If there's a positive outcome in 2024, I guess $100k per btc will commence in this year. But if a bearish happens I would love to see below $20k again once another reversal scenario might take place.

Yes, lol. I don't know what's the point of trying to predict the next one now, but the OP is free to open whatever threads he wants. As to what he asks, I would say that if we are lucky in the next cycle we will hit $1M. We have to think that the supercycle theory already gives $1M as a top for this cycle, although it seems like too much to me (I'd be happy if we reached that figure, though).

I think it is too early to prediction price of Bitcoin on 2024 halving, but we can see the big difference has been happened in btc price after previous halving so I hope it will be a big difference can be made in btc after 2024 bitcoin halving.

This! It's my third bull market, and it has always ended the same way so far.

It's too early to say at this point what will be the price on the next halving.

But everyone is seeing at least a six digit figure by then, there's a lot of prediction that we may hit it in this rally or at least in this bubble. Nevertheless, you can look at this modelling (S2F):

https://digitalik.net/btc/

So it's in the range of $100,000-$300,000.

When Newton said these quotes he never thought his laws will be violated as anything that is propelled can break these rules especially rockets  :P.

The institutional investors are here to reap the profit and they are pumping the markets for a long time and i do agree that it does not stay like that for a long time but there are other business investments as well during the past few months, especially by PayPal as they started allowing customers to purchase the coins they need to hold the coins as reserves even though the customers are not allowed to withdraw.

I do like these predictions and i have no idea how the market will be next year, the difference here is that we should expect regulations by the time of next halving and if the government plan of implementing higher taxation on cryptocurrency investment then you cannot expect institutional investors pumping the market like we see this time. So it is difficult to predict how the market will be in a few years from now but one thing is certain that the market will be higher than the base price before the halving  ;D.


You mean spacecraft? :D

The institutional investors are the propellers and only time will tell how much steam they will be having pumping the markets.

 

So it simply means that the customers will only be able to buy/sell their coins inside PayPal and no withdrawals will be allowed, right? Then how are they actually helping out crypto and especially BTC here? And even rockets, when burn out due to too much higher temperature and blast (crashes) in the sky, it still falls down.  ;D 8)

Well, perhaps it's too early to predict this thing but as you can see from the first halving into the third one, the price was always having a new ATH and could possibly by the next 4th halving bitcoin double the price compared to this new ATH now. But as we always know that no one can predict the price, it is better to sit and relax if you have been full your bag yet and wake up your wallet right after the 4th halving, there is no correct price prediction but for sure the price will always rise at the end. However, the good thing is even though we are at the beginning of 4th halving but as we can see there are too many investors, institutional or even individual large investors.

It's hard to say or know what the exact price of the Bitcoin market will be in the next halving because the cryptocurrency experience another form of trend in this current halving which lead to the institutional investors investing in Bitcoin and if the market correction is yet to happen or this bullish market is over we cant know what the price of the next halving market will be.

No one knows on what would happen.We are still 3 years far before that event happens and we didnt even anticipate nor expect on what happened as of this year.

For sure peoples views would be always on the positive side which i cant really blame that on.I do even thought on that last halving happened where it didnt really make out some significant impact
because long months passed it hadnt made out any movement but this isnt solely depending on that even because if we do try to check out.
All of news and events that happened on that time was actually basing off with adoption news which did really spark out the entire market.

Halving impression is just a part but not totally the factor or the reason that made up the market rise up this high.

The distance to the Bitcoin halving in 2024 is still quite far, so there can still be many big things that can affect the price of Bitcoin. It is very
difficult to predict the price of Bitcoin in 2024 with accuracy, but now there are quite a number of factors that make Bitcoin price soar.
So I can only guess based on Bitcoin price movements this year, Bitcoin prices should reach $ 200k-$ 300k on the Bitcoin halving in 2024
based on my predictions.

I will not be expecting anything less than 500k per Bitcoin in the year 2024 if this momentum should continue. It is no doubt that institution are trooping in and we can see the evidence in the price action

Yes, I know about the stock to flow model but the biggest factor of that model includes bitcoin halving or every 210,000 blocks it halves.

The reward that I'm talking about is for the miners, each block that they're getting right now will be cut into half every estimated four years or 210,000 blocks.

Isn't it too early to speculate about 2024's halving? Because, we are not yet done with 2020's halving and its bull run. Moreover 2024's price levels will be purely depend on where the current bull run launches the bitcoin markets.

In rough estimation by the observation of previous halving and ATHs, we can expect bitcoin prices to test $100k/$200k/$400 by end of this year and then from that ATH we can expect another 10x to 20x growth by 2025 (after 2024's halving). So, next halving may launch bitcoin prices into million dollar levels which may be higher than $2 million levels also.

Think we'll see perhaps $400k on the next halving. Steady price gains from here as a super cycle plays out for the next 5-10 years.

Speculatively, if the bitcoin cycle don't experience a brake then we can be rest assured that what you speculated is likely to be achieve. In another way, investors should be the determinant of what happens next to bitcoin price in future, so, we can't just wake up and start discussion bitcoin price when the halving still be more far and anothing can happen. I could speculate $500k+ if the current momentum are sustain.

Wow, :o what a great price.

Each halving is a very much awaited moment but is it true whether the price will be above hundreds of thousands of dollars more stable?
I also thought about how the price of bitcoin after 2024 might fly even further and as an asset at its highest in terms of property value.

It is definitely waaaay to early to talk about 2024. Some people are long term and that is why there is talks about 2024 already, that and 2025 after that will be 10x higher than this as expectations, but of course we do not know where we will be at in the middle. For example nobody knows what 2022 will be like, maybe by that time somewhere along 2022 we will drop back to 20k prices?

Or maybe 30k at best, that would mean that we dropped a lot and that is why having another 10x by 2024 will be possible, 200k to 300k by 2025 is not impossible. That is why people started to talk about it already, not everyone is a day trader so they are doing the best they can with this, and that is why it is not going to be easy to actually let this topic go by until 2023 last quarter and resurface, people will talk about it and they have always talked about few years down the road.

Yeah, imagine by 2024 after the halving, the price is around that numbers. So for sure, majority are very excited. But we have to take into considerations a lot of thing in the future. This is all speculation and we really don't know if this will happen. Although majority are really very positive about it, we can't be sure of that. So we must prepare for every possible scenario, and the best thing to do is wait and then hold or at least have some in our wallet and don't sell everything until 2024.

I guess nobody could make some reasonable prediction at this early. We're still far from 2024 and the price predictions depends on how well or how bad does Bitcoin price moves on 2023. One thing is for sure, Bitcoin has constantly moving forward, nobody knows how big or how small a price increase every year passed.
Bitcoin halving is a hype for a everyone who has been in crypto space for quite a long time. So, I guess the price prediction after the 4th halving might be up by 20%-40%  higher than the price before the 4th halving occurs.

Actually rather than think about 1/2ing moves I rather know if BTC replaces gold as a long term storage of value.

Gold = 7-11 trillion
BTC = 1-1.2 trillion


There is a lot of money/wealth shift possible.

If the world decides BTC is in and gold is out
those numbers could become

Gold 3 trillion
BTC 12 trillion in under 10 years.

This pulls us out of the so called ½ ing cycles.

A lot rests on Musk and NASA and the golden asteroid.

https://techiesmagazine.com/nasa-hired-elon-musk-launch-mission-to-giant-gold-asteroid

To me this is the biggest if of BTC the 2024 1/2ing will happen barring a crazy ass disaster. But does gold become as common as copper?

That is a huge if I would love to know how I should play this if.

since I kind of know how to play the 2024 ½ ing. 

Same as I played the 2020 the 2016 the 2012.

 Mine on and hodl some of the mined coin

Yeah right its hard to point a figure so lets expect to get a unaccurate data about this but its still fun to discuss this since many expect that we can possibly get a good blow at that time since if we based on the past we can really see that there's a good price increase happening when halving cames so best to keep looking forward in future as we have good adoption happened.

I think it's better to just focus on this year 2021 because I think this year so important for cryptocurrency, but also I think there is no problem discuss it that will happen 3 years later. I don't know what will happens if halving comes, the price will go up or down, but 1 year after halving the price will pumping massively, so buy before halving and hold it for 1 year and you will earn big profits

2024 will be the halving.

Assuming we get to 200k this cycle.
Bitcoins next bear market will bring it down to 33k
Then the halving will be slightly more than 2x, approximately 70k
The ATL to ATH is about 100x increase (162 to 19k)

That puts us somewhere in the range of 3M in 2025/2026 but I’ll go 1.5M to be on the safe side...