Bitcoin Forum

Wups...  So there’s news swirling around that a coal mine explosion at some province in China caused a huge power outage and prolly also caused BTC’s hash rate to drop by 30% or so.  That’s prolly the reason for the market sell down rn.  Just another over reaction by the market as usual.

Thsts quite interesting, 30% seems kinda small (that's a block every 16 minutes I assume).

I'm not sure how much of the Chinese operations are actually powered by the grid too - some of the large scale ones I thought produced their own power (bitmain were trying to get a dam a while ago for example and were crowd funding for it).

From what I've read there have been at least 3 accidents:


On that same page (https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/101866/xinjiang-coal-mine-bitcoins-hash-rate) I've read that this situation may be taking an entire week. That will be rather unpleasant...
On the other hand, it seems that last accident has happened about 5 days ago (https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/11/china/xinjiang-coal-mine-accident-intl-hnk/index.html), and that's before this last difficulty re-targetting...

^  Ah.  So this thing going on isn’t really unknown.  By the time everybody finds out what’s up, the market will prolly start to calm down a bit.

And you guys see Doge?  Lol.  Pretty impressive with how bad most of the market is. 

Or perhaps this might be one of the final reasons why the companies affected will decide to just move out from China. That would be a nice development.

This is very temporary so panic is an overreaction. Perhaps some have heard the news and took it a little more than they should and even decided to sell. I hope they are now buying back since the price has already gone down enough. A few thousands were already gone in just a day or two.

or it could be the Turkey ban thing.

or it could be the good ol' classic Bitcoin is boiling the oceans articles being released recently by the so called "journalists".

or it could just be the market correcting.

Who knows man. This should be something that's not new for Bitcointalkers lol.

Please panic. It would be super cool to get a 50k price by the weekend, if not even 45k. The lower we can go, the better for me. Cause I know the rebound's going to be something special =D

Hash rate dropping by 30%? Impossibru, tokes.

111k mempool today after coal mine explosions on Monday? Nah, don't think the network's suffering. Next!

Last block mined one hour before

130K unconfirmed transactions on the network

Fee is increasing above 200 sats/byte.

I don't know what is happening, but why it is happening today if this accident didn't happened today?

The decrease in the price that we saw can be attributed to almost anything because it is not really that big, if we saw a huge crash in the market then I will look for an explanation for that movement but when the correction is so small then there is not much need to try to find an explanation when the normal variations of the market are enough to explain it, anyway no one that is really interested in bitcoin for the long term should be worried about the current movement that we are seeing.

I really didn't know that one thing could lead to another this way. But the reality is that we are doing not that bad, I mean sure it is a drop, but it is a drop that is insignificant if you ask me. Bitcoin is still above 60k, etheruem is still over 2k and bnb is still over 500, those are very high numbers for all of them. I do agree that things could be better, I do believe that we were doing better before this happened, and it looked like we were going up and that would continue and suddenly it stopped and now we are dropping even if tiny bit.

However these things are needed, not the explosion obviously that is a bad thing, but the corrections are required, we can't constantly go up forever, we need to drop down a bit before we can keep going up, those corrections that we are seeing are healthy things that we need in order to get better.

I guess there was already correction by now since I dot see any selling down. Right now Bitcoin is at 2.6% below yesterday same time. I am sure at some point we will call a 2.6% drops a sell down, but right now that is just usual Bitcoin day.

The current block rate is 112 for the last 24h (https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2021-04-15%2022:11:44..2021-04-16%2022:11:44)#), it seems a bit accurate but I would still be reserved on this. Did the accident happened today or at least yesterday? As just two days ago we had a 13% positive pace with 170 blocks in the last 24hours.

Remember it's Friday night, the mempool should be going down not up

https://i.imgur.com/ztl2j7S.png
 


Might be possible that the days are different between how long the coal powerplants were able to run at maximum capacity on stock fuel.
Again, it's China every news that comes from there must be treated with tons of salt.

That being said, if this is true, guess the whole clean eco renewable energy theory just got trashed!

Accident (https://www.dw.com/en/china-21-miners-trapped-in-flooded-xinjiang-mine/a-57159195) was supposed to have happened Monday, so in fact late Sunday Europe time, mid-Sunday US time. Yeah, I mean, there's been nothing for me to suggest anything more than usual's up, at least not from my cursory glance of fees and pool traffic. If it's true that amount of hashrate disappeared overnight, we'd have noticed something a lot more significant than this.

That said, mempool has increased about 50% since I last posted...

Maybe we have different scales but I call those two charts significant  :D

https://i.imgur.com/55Lq05R.png
https://i.imgur.com/ZBVlVRT.png


Remember is the weekend, normally the fees should have gone down already by the time I speak to about 10sat/b for 1 block confirmation, that's obviously not the case. Also, this (https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,1w,fee)!

Is it really a 30% drop? The news I am seeing is that it is only a 2.2% drop and not a 30% drop? I know that Xinjiang region comprises of around 34% global mining hash rate so they might assume that the 30% is the drop because of their global hash rate. Nevertheless this is something wrong to assume that this is causing the drop especially when the price rally of Bitcoin going to 64,000$ is something without any volume supporting it meaning the price rally was weak and is susceptible to correcting as soon as people starts to take profit.

Yup. Markets are definitely overreacting to something that has no bearing on BTC fundamentals whatsoever.

Speculators are more than willing to grasp at straws one way or another, often forgetting about the long term picture. Just look at the depths of the bear market during COVID - BTC was changing hands at $3k apiece just months before the rally to hit a new all time high.

Electricity outages in one country are temporary and does not affect BTC network security at all. Although, I do think that price growth is going to be much more difficult from this point onwards given that we are already so far along in the bull market.

Break of a daily trend (https://i.imgur.com/RqPaJcB.png) might prove significant, depends if the previous formation we broke upwards from was also important because reversal into failure can lead to faster moves.   Close of a weekly bar now so maybe we dont have to wait long on that, surely other miners can take up the slack and so on an mitigate the effect and any sentiment change.

What woke up the bear and bursted bitcoin’s bubble on 2017? Was it also similar to this rumor? I speculate the exchanges that use Tether might be part of the lawsuit if the rumor is true. Binance.us and Kraken.



While the exact reason for the sudden crash is unknown, the market mood may have soured due to rumors that the U.S. Treasury is planning to charge several financial institutions for money laundering using cryptocurrencies. CoinDesk has been unable to independently verify any pending government action.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-falls-8k-to-3-week-low-altcoins-crash

So this dump is due to the Tether fud , Hash rate drop or charge on financial institutions for money laundering ?

The dump was very big as the bitcoin price dumped 10,000$ within the time span of around 15 mins.

By the way is the dump over ?

It is neither simply because we have no way of actually measuring hashrate. We can only come up with a rough estimation and when the hashrate value is reported in small time frames such as a single day the error in that value is much greater compared to when it is estimated and reported in a longer period of time.

If you look at different hashrate charts in different sites (that don't copy each other) you can see the charts look the same but the values are not the same.
For example if you check https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3m the average hashrate they have been reporting is about 130 Eh/s and the peak is 161 while the current low is 105 so you can say for the past 3 months the hashrate was 130 Eh/s ± 30 this is how rough the estimation is!
I don't see why the market is panicking over this though.

True, but fees are first and foremost affected by the price. We have had a shoot up to $64k over the past couple of days then a dump down to $60k. Also as price went below $60k (down to $51k and back) it attracts a lot of on-chain traffic and increases the fees.

Bitcoin seems already bounce back at least for now. But it's still unstable if you gonna buy the dip with huge amount, better to wait until it more stable.

Panic selling is only for those weak hands and daily trader, HODLer even accumulate more coins in their bag from that dump earlier.

https://i.imgur.com/PHwByCR.jpg

^  I’d love to say ‘don’t panic’ but that has me worried, not gonna lie.  I feel like it’s gonna be a major blood bath first thing on Monday mornings of Asia, Europe then the US.  Keep watch on the hourly.

Today is really a disappointing day for me as well; I was expecting markets to be testing new ATH as at weekends, bitcoin market is known for rising up on (especially on Sundays) but after a week long sustaining above $60k levels, today it came down under $60k levels and tested around $52k levels and trading above $55k levels right now.

Checked on google news feed; nothing major about anything negative for bitcoin ecosystem hence I understood some whales decided to embrace fiats with probable plan of getting back to bitcoins at cheaper levels. So, it is an another usual correction (probably somehow bigger in percentage) but not backed by any news nor events hence do not panic 8).

^  Maybe we shouldn’t worry too much about the ‘news’ cos it’s prolly mostly noise as far price is concerned.  Every piece of info about what’s going on behind BTC is already reflected through the price.

Here’s the hourly.  It could be crucial that BTC should bounce everytime it hits the red bar.  It would depend how spooked the market is this week after the huge sell down.

https://i.imgur.com/o0gHLeu.jpg

but there is no reason for the drop we had apart from panic selling by weak hands and when it is because of FUD it can not become bigger. right now price is sitting at 92% of yesterday's price (only 8% drop). which is a normal thing for a correction too.

whenever it takes less than 20 minutes to drop that much that is a good indication that this is just a market manipulation not an actual drop!
drops that also grow big are much slower than this.

Redditor explains that the recent crash was caused by massive cascading liquidation on Binance (https://wr.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/mt5odv/explanation_the_recent_crash_was_probably_due_to/)

Basically, because Binance and some other exchanges allow x100 leverage or even higher, the price can become very fragile if it was pushed up by these longs, because the moment they start getting liquidated, it causes even more liquidations, as more BTC gets automatically sold, pushing the price down. To support this theory, reddit users show that during this crash there was enormous USDT volume, and the price of BTC on Binance was much lower, because this is where this action happened, and traders on exchange like Coinbase had to arbitrage.

The market was looking for a reason to have a correction and they got that in the power outage in China and it really interrupted the transaction delays because of the hash rate drop and it is interesting to see whether the institutional investors will be willing to invest during this correction as they were doing that in the past and that held the market together and hence the next couple of days is crucial.

I even got the news about a lot of laundering using cryptocurrency and and that's causing the market to be a serious correction, will this panic turn the whole into selling their assets? I think it will stay and the market resistance is now quite strong so they will not be affected by the news from anywhere including with mining due to outages from the whole and also by the news in US with its misuse wash.

Fuds are trying to create huge impact to this current situation, we've seen that the entire market is falling, aside from Doge and some
alts most assets including Bitcoin are bleeding.

It take another week to see if what would be the entire impact of this mining and laundering issue, once institutional investors start
buying those cheap coins inside the market, bounce will take place immidiately.

We know now that there are many interested new big players to come along, expect their money to bring the hype back.

There is a reason, it is not manipulation, it is not speculation, it is purely automatic and will go back up surely. The huuuuuuuuge amount of money that was borrowed in USDT at binance was liquidated, there were tons of people who did that, in billions of dollars, and when they got cashed out, it dropped more and cashed out more and just kept going until it wasn't that bad and all of it was liquidated.

It is not really anyone doing it, it is just automatic, when the price dropped just a slight bit, that triggered one wave, which triggered another and just automatically dropped. All the news about why it dropped is wrong because this is literally proven and factual data that could be tracked and seen, as long as we have that we know that it is neither manipulation nor pump/dump situation, it is purely unwanted auto move that was resulted by people who borrowed too much.

There are some coins that are still in the pump including doge so I don't think this whole thing has an impact on the market situation and indeed the FUD will make a benchmark that can lower prices even more and this can be done by big whales including big new investors coming in.
I think it will not take long and can recover, look what happened before it also experienced the same thing so I don't think too much panic, just we need to hold a little longer where we reverse my portfolio to normal if the tension continues it will be difficult and throw away coins at low prices.

I highly doubt that the drop in hashrate nor the coal explosion the led to the power outage is the reason of the drop. Bitcoin has no reason to rally at $64,000 to begin with and that resulted to a lot of people taking profit early as they know that it will be followed by a drop and that happened. Of course crypto media news are fast to pick up with these kinds of matter and begin connecting everything just to make a reason for the drop. The drop from what I have seen in the hash rate was no where near 30% and if you have seen the charts for the hashrate there were far more worst drops that had happened as we have seen right now but Bitcoin didn't had any correction during that time.

What happened yesterday was nothing more than a cascading block of long liquidations one after the other. When the price was dipping, instead of people selling at a loss, they kept entering positions more and more. Then eventually they were under water and wanted to get out, however there was a lack of buyers below the $53K area and what happened was massive liqudations started happening on all the exchanges.

If you go to bybt it shows the graph and this is the first day in history where we got $10 Billion worth of liquidations, mostly it was longs. It sounds like alot it is however the price didn't go down that much to make up for it. So basically it only tells you one thing. People are way way too greedy and too over-leveraged. Nobody is buying on spot anything everybody is buying on leverage and hence the reason why this happens.

As long as this current support in BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) is not really broken, I dont see any reason to turn my bias from bullish to bearish:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/i6uBLrgC/

Its lost momentum but I agree its not properly bearish for now.  Just retracted from 2 day average overhead but well ahead on fib levels of the larger section of the fall.

https://i.imgur.com/4Vmj5YNg.png

56k and 55k represents quite easily somewhere it should trade above today to keep confidence going forward.  I expect it to build maybe drift but ultimately continue on and then we see some selling at 60k before its properly decided on this bearish idea for this month.   Daily and weekly bars closed just within a more positive area, it recovered enough probably.

This looks like an attempt to find a convenient explanation for the Bitcoin price dump.
In reality,this price dump can be caused by multiple factors-Not enough support for a price above 60K,many traders and whales selling BTC to cash out profits,some FUD news,etc.
I don't think that the situation regarding Bitcoin miners in China is the main reason behind the price correction.
Is there a direct correlation between hash rate and the Bitcoin price?

Yes, it seems that we have settled around $55k-$56k for now as the news (FUD?) might not have anymore effect on the price. Obviously, there was a scare yesterday as it plummet to $52k, but everyone looks clam now, no bearish threat whatsoever in the daily and weekly candles and should be moving on positive area this week.

It's good though that there's no more negative price movement, investors have matured, those who have sold might be back again buying at this price and hopefully we can gain momentum to $60k again.

Strange, though. I always thought Binance had very strict leverage provisions, though I myself never tried so don't know. But anyway, good to see this and I hope a lot of people got burnt so they stop trading leverage when they don't really know what they're doing.

Plenty of profit opportunities for those arbitrage traders. We'll see a lot more news coming on this in coming days.

Many think that itw a start of bear season thats why the price suddenly drops at $52k, and feel sorry to those people who easy got caught in the fuds since for sure by now they are shaking there heads for seeing how fast the bitcoins price recover back so maybe we can see it step at $60k price in next following days.

Newbie friends were panicking about this dump but when you told to see the price before they will changed their mind fast and wanting to buy more during this dump, we need to have our own set of decision making and don't believe too much in fomo so we will not regret the decision we take. I usually advise them to know what their goal really is since that's the only time they will be confident to decide for themselves whenever there is pump or dump in the market.

Maybe I have to ready my back for these panic sellers and weak hands. Let them sell it at a cheap price and catch them. They'll never know that we are waiting for them...
kinda be ridiculous but most of the time many people started to question the credibility of Bitcoin when they saw dumps and then some will suggest holding. But I'm in doubt if they will listen to us because what is in their mind is all about worries and anxiety towards the current situation and they are overly reacted to such a few changes.

8:00am in Asia came in the green and continued slightly up til 8:00am Europe came in selling.  There was a green candle in there but when 8:00am EST came, traders started selling again.

I’m not really sure if each 8am open from different time zones represents the sentiment of the market in exactly that part of the world rn but it’s fun looking at it that way.

https://i.imgur.com/nfqMgw5.jpg

Edit:  Typo

that makes sense but only a little bit because there is always a lot of people who are doing this exact thing in bitcoin market and binance is not the biggest place they dump bitcoin.
besides the drop because of such liquidations (and an automatic drop as you say it was) has a slow speed but if you look at the charts this dump was sudden. there is a huge red candle in 30 minute charts! that should be a good indication that this was manipulation and fake dumping.

The weird thing is we are already above 56k+ on bitcoin, and interestingly most of the altcoins are recovering very fast as well. Look at ETH it is 2.2k+ right now, and BNB is 500+ already, those are great things. This drop caused bitcoin domination to be 51% and that is good for altcoin investors as well, not like bitcoin can't recover neither, I am sure it will go back above 60k+ once again very soon (and taking domination higher with it) that is why there was already nothing to panic, it was literally just a 24 hour problem that got solved this quickly. Anyone who worries about the price for this quickly should not be invested in crypto anyway.

You should be able to see drops and not be worried about it for long time if you really know what the crypto market is all about. Obviously nobody could say that if it goes down too much for a very long time they will be calm, if it drops too much for a while everyone will be worried but this was just 24 hours.

The As you said, this is an overreaction statement and I dont believe the China coal mine explosion was the main reason for the Bitcoin market dump in price cause some people also believe the dump in price was due to the investors swapping their holding for gold before the market correction.
We can't know the main reason.

Without a doubt the decrease in the price that we saw was important and it broke up the tendency we had of producing new higher lows, this could be the beginning of a change in the trend but it is too soon to tell, there is still a lot of time left during this year and we know that bitcoin has the tendency to do well at the end of the year so we have no option but to see what bitcoin does during the next months as I do not think the bull run is going to end so soon.

It could simply be a bitcoin PI indicator peaking for the first time since December 2017 ;)

The main difference is that at all previous bull runs when the price peaked it crashed. Now we're still very stable. We need at least a 40% move down to talk about the end of the bull run. Without it we're still there just like we were after that large leg down in February.

I like how people always look for explanation and can't accepted that it's traders taking profit.

I think bitcoin will not go down this year, this is a big bull run the past bull run that happens in 2017 is really different from the present bull run with reagards to price, i think it is really hard to wait for the another dip this time, because we all know that it will now take a long time before we saw dip or opportunity to buy and hold for us o earn.

Slightly Fud spreaders will take advantage of this news, so we must be careful with our mindsets over the said articles. This might be put into exaggerating thoughts which is not healthy for us who still trusting cryptocurrency. Just let everything sette down to normal trend then later on our final decision still persist in the end.

and then because you post this information.. Is it possible hodler from this forum will panic selling as well.. Another cause for the drop? Lol just joking  mate i understand what the title says..  ;D
Actually if that news is true then perhaps we need to calm down first , since there's no enough proof for this incident.  
We should make research as well before making a decision in our investments because maybe its from ppl who spreading fake news around the internet , because that's how they can manipulate the market nowadays.
Wherein without knowing there's another "NORMAL" reason for the drop, and you will dive into it and you figured it out its a fake news afterwards . For sure you will regret of doing a sudden decision in your investment..  Lets be smart when it comes to this information around the internet..

Holders will be the strong hands here,  I doubt that they will be affected by this negative news. Yeah, probably the market just overreacts or people really don't know what they are up to, and just would push the sell button because of the FUD. So this is another lessons for everyone,  not to be affected by this news because it really doesn't bring anything on the table except regrets when we sell. The market has bounce back a bit, settled down and no more FUD around.

No exactly know what is the true reason why make is down today but perhaps it is one of the factors. Personally, I am thinking why the market is down because where are just in correction because we all know that Bitcoin just recently set a new ATH, and based on a past event like this Bitcoin goes a correction after breaking an ATH. Anyway, there could be a lot of factors not only one like I am pretty sure that Turkey banning Bitcoin was also had an effect.

Bitcointalkers should have understand by now what the market usually does whenever there are major decisions made by some whales,  FUD is what they consider win whenever they want to deal with the market, so, these news in my opinion doesn't actually have huge impact on the market than their FUD and when these FUD spreads there must be cork and bull stories that will follow and feeble holders will definitely panic sell.   

That's actually a quite good graphic. Better than most others I have seen, most basically trade on what "should" happen and you have shown us something that is basically the sentiment of the markets and that matters a lot. Asia liked it, so they bought it, increased it, europe saw that, sold from the top when they saw it, then started to buy back from cheaper, then USA came in and sold the peak of EU and that is about it.

I think that is a good thing to see and you can make calculations based on that. Buy after USA drops it, sell when Asia increases it, buy when Europe drops it, and sell when EU peaks it, and buy back again when USA drops it. If this works, and if it is like that for real, people could repeat this and make money. Of course this was just one day, but I am sure someone can make a crawler that can check what happens depending on hours and see the larger results.

Many people who've been so eager to earn huge profit had been fascinated with minor drops, and they still didn't learn to manage their emotions despite of all success in crypto. Everything will be overcome, just trust the best solutions that could fix this problems and I'm pretty sure those whales didn't want to lose in this game.

It's really gonna leave us no time to rest, mate.  :v
But if the price fluctuation has something to do with the activity of trader from a certain area, then it is a good opportunity to make a profit. I just want to know more about whether that scenario happens every day or just a coincidence.

You can test it for your own if it turns out to be effective on having those observations because not all would really be that too observant when it comes to technicalities and fundamentals.
We can make our own ways to make profits and go along with the waves specially into this market which is way too unpredictable.As long it can benefit out then
better stick and deal with it.For price fluctuations and unpredictability of the market then we do have to deal with it because this wont really be sparking
out big interest if these movements arent really present.

You're right, without testing it, I might never know what it really is.

I know that market fluctuation are the most important part of trading crypto asset, because without them, trader can't make anything in the market. So if difference in the activity of trader in various part of the world can lead to market sentiment, there is nothing wrong with taking advantage of it.

We are witnessing a free fall, and because bitcoin fall, there's no altcoin that will remain bullish as we can see it in https://coinmarketcap.com/.
This is just normal, people who think that bitcoin will continue to go uptrend without seeing a major correction are just stupid, hopefully they will not panic because if they do, bitcoin could dump below $50k, and we might see more serious dumps.

I do not think we can characterize the drop in the price we saw as a free fall, the drop was important and that is undeniable but when the price is still so high I do not know why people are panicking, people need to remain in control of their emotions or they will lose their money, to me this seems like a bear trap, people will begin to sell their coins thinking this is the end and then in a few months the price will be much higher and they will lament selling their coins for such a cheap price.