Don’t Panic V

[tokeweed]

Wups...  So there’s news swirling around that a coal mine explosion at some province in China caused a huge power outage and prolly also caused BTC’s hash rate to drop by 30% or so.  That’s prolly the reason for the market sell down rn.  Just another over reaction by the market as usual.

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[jackg]

Thsts quite interesting, 30% seems kinda small (that's a block every 16 minutes I assume).

I'm not sure how much of the Chinese operations are actually powered by the grid too - some of the large scale ones I thought produced their own power (bitmain were trying to get a dam a while ago for example and were crowd funding for it).

[NeuroticFish]

From what I've read there have been at least 3 accidents:

Over the past two weeks, there have been three security accidents in coal mines in China's Shanxi, Guizhou and Xinjiang provinces due to gas explosion and flooding, according to Chinese state media Xinhua.

On that same page I've read that this situation may be taking an entire week. That will be rather unpleasant...
On the other hand, it seems that last accident has happened about 5 days ago, and that's before this last difficulty re-targetting...

[tokeweed]

^  Ah.  So this thing going on isn’t really unknown.  By the time everybody finds out what’s up, the market will prolly start to calm down a bit.

And you guys see Doge?  Lol.  Pretty impressive with how bad most of the market is. 

[Fundamentals Of]

Or perhaps this might be one of the final reasons why the companies affected will decide to just move out from China. That would be a nice development.

This is very temporary so panic is an overreaction. Perhaps some have heard the news and took it a little more than they should and even decided to sell. I hope they are now buying back since the price has already gone down enough. A few thousands were already gone in just a day or two.

[mk4]

or it could be the Turkey ban thing.

or it could be the good ol' classic Bitcoin is boiling the oceans articles being released recently by the so called "journalists".

or it could just be the market correcting.

Who knows man. This should be something that's not new for Bitcointalkers lol.

[buwaytress]

Please panic. It would be super cool to get a 50k price by the weekend, if not even 45k. The lower we can go, the better for me. Cause I know the rebound's going to be something special =D

Hash rate dropping by 30%? Impossibru, tokes.

111k mempool today after coal mine explosions on Monday? Nah, don't think the network's suffering. Next!

[Findingnemo]

Last block mined one hour before

130K unconfirmed transactions on the network

Fee is increasing above 200 sats/byte.

I don't know what is happening, but why it is happening today if this accident didn't happened today?

[South Park]

or it could be the Turkey ban thing.

or it could be the good ol' classic Bitcoin is boiling the oceans articles being released recently by the so called "journalists".

or it could just be the market correcting.

Who knows man. This should be something that's not new for Bitcointalkers lol.

The decrease in the price that we saw can be attributed to almost anything because it is not really that big, if we saw a huge crash in the market then I will look for an explanation for that movement but when the correction is so small then there is not much need to try to find an explanation when the normal variations of the market are enough to explain it, anyway no one that is really interested in bitcoin for the long term should be worried about the current movement that we are seeing.

[el kaka22]

I really didn't know that one thing could lead to another this way. But the reality is that we are doing not that bad, I mean sure it is a drop, but it is a drop that is insignificant if you ask me. Bitcoin is still above 60k, etheruem is still over 2k and bnb is still over 500, those are very high numbers for all of them. I do agree that things could be better, I do believe that we were doing better before this happened, and it looked like we were going up and that would continue and suddenly it stopped and now we are dropping even if tiny bit.

However these things are needed, not the explosion obviously that is a bad thing, but the corrections are required, we can't constantly go up forever, we need to drop down a bit before we can keep going up, those corrections that we are seeing are healthy things that we need in order to get better.

[Febo]

Wups...  So there’s news swirling around that a coal mine explosion at some province in China caused a huge power outage and prolly also caused BTC’s hash rate to drop by 30% or so.  That’s prolly the reason for the market sell down rn.  Just another over reaction by the market as usual.

I guess there was already correction by now since I dot see any selling down. Right now Bitcoin is at 2.6% below yesterday same time. I am sure at some point we will call a 2.6% drops a sell down, but right now that is just usual Bitcoin day.

[stompix]

Hash rate dropping by 30%? Impossibru, tokes.
111k mempool today after coal mine explosions on Monday? Nah, don't think the network's suffering. Next!

The current block rate is 112 for the last 24h, it seems a bit accurate but I would still be reserved on this. Did the accident happened today or at least yesterday? As just two days ago we had a 13% positive pace with 170 blocks in the last 24hours.

Remember it's Friday night, the mempool should be going down not up


 

On the other hand, it seems that last accident has happened about 5 days ago, and that's before this last difficulty re-targetting...

Might be possible that the days are different between how long the coal powerplants were able to run at maximum capacity on stock fuel.
Again, it's China every news that comes from there must be treated with tons of salt.

That being said, if this is true, guess the whole clean eco renewable energy theory just got trashed!

[buwaytress]

The current block rate is 112 for the last 24h, it seems a bit accurate but I would still be reserved on this. Did the accident happened today or at least yesterday? As just two days ago we had a 13% positive pace with 170 blocks in the last 24hours.

Remember it's Friday night, the mempool should be going down not up

Accident was supposed to have happened Monday, so in fact late Sunday Europe time, mid-Sunday US time. Yeah, I mean, there's been nothing for me to suggest anything more than usual's up, at least not from my cursory glance of fees and pool traffic. If it's true that amount of hashrate disappeared overnight, we'd have noticed something a lot more significant than this.

That said, mempool has increased about 50% since I last posted...

[stompix]

If it's true that amount of hashrate disappeared overnight, we'd have noticed something a lot more significant than this.

Maybe we have different scales but I call those two charts significant 

That said, mempool has increased about 50% since I last posted...

Remember is the weekend, normally the fees should have gone down already by the time I speak to about 10sat/b for 1 block confirmation, that's obviously not the case. Also, this!

[Harlot]

According to Ycharts, the outages appear to have driven a roughly 2.2% drop in the Bitcoin network’s combined hash rate in the past 24 hours, which has slid from 169.4 million terahashes per second, or TH/s, to 165.8 TH/s as of this writing.

Is it really a 30% drop? The news I am seeing is that it is only a 2.2% drop and not a 30% drop? I know that Xinjiang region comprises of around 34% global mining hash rate so they might assume that the 30% is the drop because of their global hash rate. Nevertheless this is something wrong to assume that this is causing the drop especially when the price rally of Bitcoin going to 64,000$ is something without any volume supporting it meaning the price rally was weak and is susceptible to correcting as soon as people starts to take profit.

[magneto]

Wups...  So there’s news swirling around that a coal mine explosion at some province in China caused a huge power outage and prolly also caused BTC’s hash rate to drop by 30% or so.  That’s prolly the reason for the market sell down rn.  Just another over reaction by the market as usual.

Yup. Markets are definitely overreacting to something that has no bearing on BTC fundamentals whatsoever.

Speculators are more than willing to grasp at straws one way or another, often forgetting about the long term picture. Just look at the depths of the bear market during COVID - BTC was changing hands at $3k apiece just months before the rally to hit a new all time high.

Electricity outages in one country are temporary and does not affect BTC network security at all. Although, I do think that price growth is going to be much more difficult from this point onwards given that we are already so far along in the bull market.

[STT]

Break of a daily trend might prove significant, depends if the previous formation we broke upwards from was also important because reversal into failure can lead to faster moves.   Close of a weekly bar now so maybe we dont have to wait long on that, surely other miners can take up the slack and so on an mitigate the effect and any sentiment change.

[bbc.reporter]

What woke up the bear and bursted bitcoin’s bubble on 2017? Was it also similar to this rumor? I speculate the exchanges that use Tether might be part of the lawsuit if the rumor is true. Binance.us and Kraken.



While the exact reason for the sudden crash is unknown, the market mood may have soured due to rumors that the U.S. Treasury is planning to charge several financial institutions for money laundering using cryptocurrencies. CoinDesk has been unable to independently verify any pending government action.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-falls-8k-to-3-week-low-altcoins-crash

[virasog]

What woke up the bear and bursted bitcoin’s bubble on 2017? Was it also similar to this rumor? I speculate the exchanges that use Tether might be part of the lawsuit if the rumor is true. Binance.us and Kraken.



While the exact reason for the sudden crash is unknown, the market mood may have soured due to rumors that the U.S. Treasury is planning to charge several financial institutions for money laundering using cryptocurrencies. CoinDesk has been unable to independently verify any pending government action.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-falls-8k-to-3-week-low-altcoins-crash

So this dump is due to the Tether fud , Hash rate drop or charge on financial institutions for money laundering ?

The dump was very big as the bitcoin price dumped 10,000$ within the time span of around 15 mins.

By the way is the dump over ?

[pooya87]

Is it really a 30% drop? The news I am seeing is that it is only a 2.2% drop and not a 30% drop?

It is neither simply because we have no way of actually measuring hashrate. We can only come up with a rough estimation and when the hashrate value is reported in small time frames such as a single day the error in that value is much greater compared to when it is estimated and reported in a longer period of time.

If you look at different hashrate charts in different sites (that don't copy each other) you can see the charts look the same but the values are not the same.
For example if you check https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3m the average hashrate they have been reporting is about 130 Eh/s and the peak is 161 while the current low is 105 so you can say for the past 3 months the hashrate was 130 Eh/s ± 30 this is how rough the estimation is!
I don't see why the market is panicking over this though.

Remember is the weekend, normally the fees should have gone down already by the time I speak to about 10sat/b for 1 block confirmation, that's obviously not the case.

True, but fees are first and foremost affected by the price. We have had a shoot up to $64k over the past couple of days then a dump down to $60k. Also as price went below $60k (down to $51k and back) it attracts a lot of on-chain traffic and increases the fees.