Bitcoin Forum

I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.

People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?

But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?

For market predictions, what you are doing may be right, but with so many coins that have sprung up, it is difficult for us to predict the level of risk, not to mention trying to analyze prices, both selling and buying values ​​in the market.

Most people are able to analyze the market well, but very few are able to adjust the strategy with the steps to be taken, so that every decision taken is not in accordance with the initial prediction, and very rarely what is predicted will go according to plan, I myself am often wrong in analyze and predict a potentially rising coin market.

With a lot of information circulating, it makes people confused in making decisions, so we want to invest with coins that we like, the first step is to analyze it well, after that we conclude whether to invest or not.

If we do not do this carefully, then when other information is provided by people, we will be easily influenced even though the information is not necessarily true and useful for us to apply, in the end whatever we do does not produce anything and the conclusion we always suffer uncontrollable losses.

Then adjust your buy or sell orders. That's why it's not that easy to really predict where the price is going, technical indicators are good help, but there are factors that can suddenly change the mood of the market and it could get worst or better. And the only thing to hedge is to really took the time to see how the market is moving, let's say in a 4 hour time frame and make your trading adjustments run time.

That's possible, you can used technical analysis to understand how the market will move. But this is just tool and it's not 100% accurate.


As I have said, it is not an exact science, so obviously, when the market moves on the opposite direction, you should also adjust your strategy to deal with this kind of information. As for how you are going to adjust, it's really up to you. Stop-loss for one.

I would strongly recommend you not to rely on different market prediction projects. In my point of view, traders and funds that create such projects just buy before publishing their prediction, and then there is a pump and this way they earn. One more thing that I would like to know is how they make their predictions. Either they analyse the latest news or do technical analysis.

I can tell you from almost 10 years of experience in crypto trading that price predictions, no matter for which cryptocurrencies, have almost no influence. Cryptocurrency trading is too diverse for that. And admittedly, most articles on price speculation and predictions are simply clickbait, partly without foundation, written by people who have little idea in the crypto field. If you relied on most bitcoin price prediction articles, you would have had to sell your bitcoin at $50.

Assuming you are talking about people getting influenced by the predictions, I have wonder if hiding people's bets/predictions from others could help reduce market manipulation.
There are different factors that can determine the direction of prices, unfortunately showing what everyone is betting on is one of them. I wish people's bet are private, so that we can focus more on fundamentals.
In this case, no one else but the bettors/predictors knows the individual bets. Your adversary can bet against you for the wrong reasons if he/she knows your bet

The prediction is a way to predict the direction of the market. people have their own predictions about the market. people will able to know that but again it must be around 50% yes and 50% no.
You must remember that none can predict the future and that's why sometimes people are just lucky enough if their prediction was true.
You must also adjust your strategy based on the market's movement.

You only have two choices, believe it or not. if it affects your analysis, then don't trust it. I personally don't trust such platforms. more trust with analysis made based on the latest news. and it looks like a pump and dump group, it's just a different way of conveying it. so better not believe it.

Yes, that's right, predicting a market asset does not necessarily have to use sophisticated tools in the market asset, if all of that is used with a prediction bot, the results are not necessarily satisfied or improved.
and it's best to predict an asset market simply by using a graph.

yes that's right, we should not rely on someone's predictions because someone's predictions are not necessarily correct, if we rely on someone's predictions then we will be disappointed in him and even want to hit him if the prediction is wrong. It is better to believe in our own predictions than the predictions of others, besides that we must be good at analyzing crypto exchanges so that we can make a profit.

Personally I trust only when I am shown some fundamental reasons why a token might grow. For example, I like watching different reviews from crypto  bloggers that read all docs, overview ideas and team members. And if they say that this project might be successful because of its innovative ideas or something like this, I usually invest.
Also I see the point in adjusting your strategy according to some fundamental news. For example, a new big partnership.

what happens is a price agreement in the market.
more and more people are talking about the same predictions. it fosters wonderful psychology to foster new adoption. it can mean a positive sentiment for the community can grow well with an agreed prediction.

No one can predict accurately what will happen in the future but we can speculate with the future. And related to the crypto market, I do not think that the expert can predict where the market will moves. They can analyze the market and make few options on what they should do if they see the market moves to anticipate if the market turns in the other direction. As long as you can analyze the market better than the other people, you can make a profit and maybe your profit will be bigger than the other.

that means when you are getting an new information about the market and you may need to adjust your strategy based on the information that you have received it.
That being said that if you must also watch the market anytime to make sure you can know what changes that already happened in the market dude. This may consume a lot of your time but that's it.
The prediction can't affect the actual market but the main purpose of prediction to predicting the actual market accurately

No one can guarantee 100% accuracy that people only rely on information that is considered relevant, for example information based on trusted media sources. and it's not easy to find. most of the consumption of inappropriate information and do not re-clarification will be very vulnerable to some wrong decisions to choose the project. So the anticipation that is often used is to make various options for each factor and draw conclusions based on the range of data accuracy values.

Think about all the misinformation that is spread during political elections. People fall for it and the reason is that these misinformation campaigns become more and more sophisticated. For example, even scam projects can go to Coindesk, pay them $5000 and get a spot to place a guest article about their project. That is really an issue because you think Coindesk is a trusted source and although they mark it as "not endorsing" or something like that, a lot of readers feel as if Coindesk legitimizes the project in a certain way, but they don't.

It will effect peoples investment as much as it does in other investment markets but it would be hard to find out weather people predicting the prices effect Bitcoin a lot because there is no way to measure it and you can't adjust your strategy. The only exception to this would be if Elon Musk or a similar celebrity made the prediction.

The anticipation might be based on the news in the market and things like China banned bitcoins and Tesla dropped Bitcoin payments. Yes, the market might be predicted slightly based on these news but because the market is decentralized, there is no guarantee or assurance associated with those predictions and anticipations.

It's like guess that Suns are playing the game at home court, they will win but we all saw what happened with the Bucks made a big comeback and won the road game. You can predict how things may look but cannot guarantee anything.

it doesnt have an effect because it was only a prediction but what can affect the market is if theres an action given or theres action given along with that prediction that have been made ex. people will start buying btc now because they predicted that btc will rise ,
it will rise because theres a demand going on .

dont use prediction tools if you will change your mind because its useless but you can just depend on your own skill .

I don't believe in such predictors and I suggest you to not blindly follow any such predictions either. Look the predictions made are based on either analysis or hype and I can tell you easily that when you yourself analyze the market, you make predictions and speculation based on some facts and market data while if you rely on others doing it for you, it might be purely based on hype.

That's a myth, there's no one ever who can know the market movement in advance unless they are a whale who knows how to manipulate the market or is part of such groups who manipulate the market.

How do these predictions affect the market? The same as Elon Musk's tweets, they do nothing but create a particular sentiment in our mind which then affects the market as they want.

Expect the panic when a certain coin gets reported it will go down sooner in price, and from that take it as an opportunity to buy more.
This applies to me in Bitcoin, and I am not sure if those applies in other coins since many alts are gonna end up a shitcoin when dumped by the investors.

Right but for the shit coins to be dumped it doesn't even need bad news! :P

Regarding Bitcoin I think buying the dip with a reasonable amount is almost never a mistake. If you have good financial management and don't go all in with your cash when Bitcoin drops 10%, I think you are good to go. The more it goes down, the higher the room for it to go up again. The most important variable I think is time. It may not recover tomorrow, but it probably will eventually.

Pure speculation. It doesn't have much affect on the market because the prediction might happen or might not. We have seen many people saying that the price of bitcoin will go below $25,000 USD. Some even say that the price might go below $10,000 USD within the end of the month. While others are saying that the price might skyrocket above $100,000 at the end of the year. But it doesn't happen. Kinda feels like most predictions are just a tactic to spread FUDs. Don't rely on those information. Just keep yourself updated with current events and then you will get a feeling what might happen to the price next.

So far, as long as I'm trading cryptocurrencies on exchanges, I will never be able to predict cryptocurrency price movements correctly because cryptocurrency price movements can't be controlled by anyone, including Elon Musk who some time ago tried to move bitcoin and dogecoin prices but finally in reality he unable to do so.

but I think Elon can move the market momentarily, not in the long term. when he preaches Tesla and he buys bitcoin, then the price goes up, and when he says sells btc, then the price goes down, the same thing happened to doge. With that incident right now, it is possible that Elon has lost a lot of his community

Then stay away from any predictions and focus on your own. As you said, those informations can change trader's point of view. There are lots of predictions and speculations, with or without support that spread everywhere. It's fine to pick a few of those to act as your reference.

However, what about just trusting your own judgement on making your own technical analysis. Self-research, self-analysis, self-data gathering etc.

In that way, there will be no distractions while at the same time, you are enhancing your trading knowledge and skills.

We must first know what is the meaning of prediction. The prediction is only part of the guess that can be right or not. That is, the prediction of the market does not have a definite effect. Because there is a lot of information related to strategies related to current market conditions. That's my opinion.

In theory, yes prediction can affect the actual market, it's called self-fulfilling prophecy. However, it needs everyone to believe in one particular prediction, which is improbable since people have different prediction/opinion. Thus, influencers try to push people to believe in certain prediction, hoping to achieve the mentioned phenomenon. It's also common in the stock market where the news pushed through TV and other media, but I can't recall if there is any case of this become successful. Some research, however, links this strategy to negative performance (just google it).

Regarding forecasting tools, everyone will look at them, but they will not fully believe them, because many forecasting tools are not very accurate and sometimes change. You can observe how some whales work. If the prediction is accurate, everyone should now become millionaires, and the price of cryptocurrencies is likely to rise wildly because of the word "more optimistic" by whales. Some people will panic when the whale suddenly flips a coin, and follow the whale to sell their coins, causing the coins to fall. These are all sudden.

In my opinion, the results of the predictions have no effect on the market. If there is something that can affect the market, then the prediction is who will do it. I am sure, certainly not ordinary people, surely the people who give the prediction results are people who are already so smart in influencing the market.

Forecasting tools may have value when you are trying to predict the weather (and even there they are more often than not quite bad depending on the time horizon of course), but in markets forecasting tools are problematic as they never catch the critical outliers that can destroy your investment totally. The reason it sometimes works is because everyone uses the same tools and they function like a sort of shelling point then. That sets free a herd movement towards that new price point. The question then becomes who chooses the smartest spot to sell before everyone else takes the opportunity.

Firstly, No one is perfect and the reality is "crypto industry is always unable to predict".  For example, a few are able to understood the biggest bull run of the beginning of this year. Secondly, don't go for anyone predict if you don't know that person/institutions welly. Rather focus one or two currency at a time, collect news for fundamental analysis and take position according to your asset if you think that is best for you but Don't rely on any tools blindly

Yes, if you go for the bigger market cap coins with a positive history, outliers aren't a problem. Those coins can of course also drop in price sharply, but they will return back to normal. That might be very different for low market cap coins that after dropping sharply in value just die subsequently or don't recover fully ever.

I do believe that there is a good chance we could make a decent return thanks to using automated tools but the reality is that we are talking about something that is automated, as in preprogrammed.

It means that when there are chances in the crypto market we may end up seeing something that we never expected before and that is the risk we are taking, I am not really interested in taking those type of risks, it is really not that smart to let something automating handle all the things I should be doing manually, if the situation changes then automated can't change itself, it is not like some smart AI, it is just some programming, whereas I myself can change whatever I want according to the situation at hand. Which is why I never really enjoyed automated tools, bots or whatever, they are good for a while, but in the long term they are too dangerous and risky.

Well, my question to this is, Since you have been using that service, did it seem correct to you? have you been able to make the right decision doing your crypto trading with this prediction? I understand with a lot of TAs understanding, some people might be thinking they know where the market is headed and might have worked out that way too but I wouldn't always base my investment on those services but will try to check for myself and invest in what I am sure and try to do that at the right time.

Never mind predictions and speculations. Predictions will stay predictions, so is speculations.

The market is volatile and most predictions are bound not to happen no matter how good it was backed up. Predictions are not meant to follow but it just giving us some previews and insights on what will happen in the given timeframe.

You have your own strategy so just follow it.

Yeah, if you are taking about trading bots, which has been taking this market already. That's why when it is triggered, there is a sudden dump in the price as speculators (shorters), have set it like that.


Still based on human intervention, if traders didn't set up well then obviously they will lose money very quick. That's why I think there are still some old school traders in the market. Who uses their gut and experience for their daily trading activity and not rely on bots or automated software to do their task.

Maybe focusing on two currencies will be a good idea so he does not have too long to analyze. Maybe bitcoin or ethereum can give them a chance to make a profit than the other coins. It is better to analyze by ourselves to find the time to trade or make investments and not depend on other people we do not know. We should depend on ourselves in crypto because that will improve our skills in trading and investment, which can impact making a profit in the future.

Predicting the market is a difficult thing, don't rely too much on predictors because the market can change with the market. the important thing is that you have to understand the market, understand the stability of the coin, and know when to buy and sell coins. It sounds easy enough but you need to control your emotions to do all these things. You have to be really patient to monitor market developments.

that way may only be done for people who are already professional in trading and investing.
most for new people is to follow the signals given by friends or other people. and some are just trying their luck with the origin of choosing assets.
there is no definite reason or way we can do proper analysis and planning. I'm sure all plans have a 50% chance of success.

Prediction and accuration have slight difference as you could only predict the prices at certain levels and make your move like buy or sell order placed on any exchange but there are some decisions which can affect the prices which cannot be predicted unless you have any insider information on that decision.Like the prices were increasing you have buy or sell then suddenly there is btc adoption or ban somewhere that could move the market so you can't accurately predict that scenario but making judgement and have Market information you could turn some positive points in your support which can be used in profit making.But accuracy is difficult to achieve or impossible in this volatile market.

They should learn more about trading and investment because they can not always depend on the signals to improve themselves in trading and investment. If they do not learn more about that, they will see that someday, the signals will not work because the market can change at any time. I am sure that we want to make more profit from trading and investment so there is no other way for us not to learn more details to have good skills.

Anyone who understands about cryptocurrencies, surely they can give predictions. However, a prediction can not necessarily be used as a conclusion. Crypto activity in the market, always changes from the prediction results, so I dare say that the prediction results are not very influential.

Many predictions projects? I don't think I have come across any or were you referring to predictions by experts and analysts.
Nevertheless, let me ask, all the prediction projects you came across with their scores of predictions, how many of those predictions actually worked? For a long time now, we have seen that predictions hardly work because of many market influences and factors such as fud, manipulation, hype and so on; all these plays a role in either pumping the market or dumping the market. Remember when Elon made a statement about Bitcoin and the market reacted by dumping and recently when a good crypto event was launched, the market reacted by pumping. I think the truth is, predictions might work but the influence is always small and most times it works if there is no bad news and vice versa.
Therefore, I don't think there is any prediction projects which can track the movement of Bitcoin or the market correctly, you just have to trade carefully or focus on good coins for long term.

One of them is that we must collect various information from several market sources, and share information with each other so that we can notify each other of updates on each price in the market.  Of course, it is not an easy thing to predict, because the circumstances when trading in the market will determine the price of the coin.  In my opinion, learning and knowledge will certainly provide an opportunity to determine market conditions in order to predict them.

For me such information is just a reference. Because I personally will remain consistent in what I will do. Like buying for today, and will sell it 2 years later. It's not really short term advice, but I want to say that your own decision is enough to help you trade.

When you're in a market or want to jump into a market to trade you don't have to rely on predictions from big sources cause most of this people already bought the coin before dropping the news. Though some of this predictions turns out to be right but you know it's unlike forex factory that gives you the current news on when to trade. In crypto you need to be very careful and practice risk management or you might end up blowing off your account

Predictions also helped us formulate a good idea and mindset, but I failed to follow one time this year that's why also suffered with my altcoins holdings.
That really affected my asset, because I didn't listen to what I seen on bitcoin market which is reall happening right now and it affected a lot of cryptocurrency coins to drowned on their respective price so cheap.

if you skill in analizing market , you can make your own prediciton. Trend recognizing be first thing we have to learn so we will in which direction price will move. Fundamental or news as trigger to support the trend that describe in chart.

News that come to market as a trigger for market movement , if we see bad news price will drop and vice versa. Sometimes fud will not working anymore if market already experience with this FUD. China FUD maybe could be an example that FUD not always working while investors be smarter than before.

If the same group contains people who trade regularly then they will be making decisions based on predictions. Because the ones who find it bogus (the better informed group in reality) will have already left than group and set up their own predictions.

But honestly speaking, you should not focus on such groups and channels. Because the owners are known to pump and dump shitcoins because they own them and they will be selling while the rest of the members are buying them. It is a type of a scam but you cannot do anything legal about it except separate yourself away from it.

I would call it "mis/dis-information" more often. Crypto is full of such groups. Dont fall prey of them. Learn to read the charts and try dummy trading on your own first and then start trading yourself.

Market forecasts are just another option obtained by analyzing trends. When you get new information about the market, you may need to adjust your strategy based on the information you receive. For market forecasts, it is difficult to predict the risk level of cryptocurrencies, and the price trend of cryptocurrencies can never be correctly predicted. But some market forecasts can also make us panic and make wrong judgments. So don't completely believe in market forecasts. Many forecasting tools are not very accurate and sometimes change and cause losses.