How can prediction results affect the actual market?

[jostorres]

I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.

I don't believe in such predictors and I suggest you to not blindly follow any such predictions either. Look the predictions made are based on either analysis or hype and I can tell you easily that when you yourself analyze the market, you make predictions and speculation based on some facts and market data while if you rely on others doing it for you, it might be purely based on hype.

People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?

That's a myth, there's no one ever who can know the market movement in advance unless they are a whale who knows how to manipulate the market or is part of such groups who manipulate the market.

How do these predictions affect the market? The same as Elon Musk's tweets, they do nothing but create a particular sentiment in our mind which then affects the market as they want.

[isaac_clarke22]

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Expect the panic when a certain coin gets reported it will go down sooner in price, and from that take it as an opportunity to buy more.
This applies to me in Bitcoin, and I am not sure if those applies in other coins since many alts are gonna end up a shitcoin when dumped by the investors.

[OZmaster]

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Expect the panic when a certain coin gets reported it will go down sooner in price, and from that take it as an opportunity to buy more.
This applies to me in Bitcoin, and I am not sure if those applies in other coins since many alts are gonna end up a shitcoin when dumped by the investors.

Right but for the shit coins to be dumped it doesn't even need bad news!

Regarding Bitcoin I think buying the dip with a reasonable amount is almost never a mistake. If you have good financial management and don't go all in with your cash when Bitcoin drops 10%, I think you are good to go. The more it goes down, the higher the room for it to go up again. The most important variable I think is time. It may not recover tomorrow, but it probably will eventually.

[adzino]

I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.

People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?

But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?

Pure speculation. It doesn't have much affect on the market because the prediction might happen or might not. We have seen many people saying that the price of bitcoin will go below $25,000 USD. Some even say that the price might go below $10,000 USD within the end of the month. While others are saying that the price might skyrocket above $100,000 at the end of the year. But it doesn't happen. Kinda feels like most predictions are just a tactic to spread FUDs. Don't rely on those information. Just keep yourself updated with current events and then you will get a feeling what might happen to the price next.

[mrongos]

I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.

People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?

But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?

So far, as long as I'm trading cryptocurrencies on exchanges, I will never be able to predict cryptocurrency price movements correctly because cryptocurrency price movements can't be controlled by anyone, including Elon Musk who some time ago tried to move bitcoin and dogecoin prices but finally in reality he unable to do so.

[Xampeuu]

I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.

People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?

But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?

So far, as long as I'm trading cryptocurrencies on exchanges, I will never be able to predict cryptocurrency price movements correctly because cryptocurrency price movements can't be controlled by anyone, including Elon Musk who some time ago tried to move bitcoin and dogecoin prices but finally in reality he unable to do so.

but I think Elon can move the market momentarily, not in the long term. when he preaches Tesla and he buys bitcoin, then the price goes up, and when he says sells btc, then the price goes down, the same thing happened to doge. With that incident right now, it is possible that Elon has lost a lot of his community

[harizen]

But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?

Then stay away from any predictions and focus on your own. As you said, those informations can change trader's point of view. There are lots of predictions and speculations, with or without support that spread everywhere. It's fine to pick a few of those to act as your reference.

However, what about just trusting your own judgement on making your own technical analysis. Self-research, self-analysis, self-data gathering etc.

In that way, there will be no distractions while at the same time, you are enhancing your trading knowledge and skills.

[anandaijun]

I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.

People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?

But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?

We must first know what is the meaning of prediction. The prediction is only part of the guess that can be right or not. That is, the prediction of the market does not have a definite effect. Because there is a lot of information related to strategies related to current market conditions. That's my opinion.

[mu_enrico]

In theory, yes prediction can affect the actual market, it's called self-fulfilling prophecy. However, it needs everyone to believe in one particular prediction, which is improbable since people have different prediction/opinion. Thus, influencers try to push people to believe in certain prediction, hoping to achieve the mentioned phenomenon. It's also common in the stock market where the news pushed through TV and other media, but I can't recall if there is any case of this become successful. Some research, however, links this strategy to negative performance (just google it).

[Kiley33]

Regarding forecasting tools, everyone will look at them, but they will not fully believe them, because many forecasting tools are not very accurate and sometimes change. You can observe how some whales work. If the prediction is accurate, everyone should now become millionaires, and the price of cryptocurrencies is likely to rise wildly because of the word "more optimistic" by whales. Some people will panic when the whale suddenly flips a coin, and follow the whale to sell their coins, causing the coins to fall. These are all sudden.

[darahjuang]

In my opinion, the results of the predictions have no effect on the market. If there is something that can affect the market, then the prediction is who will do it. I am sure, certainly not ordinary people, surely the people who give the prediction results are people who are already so smart in influencing the market.

[OZmaster]

Regarding forecasting tools, everyone will look at them, but they will not fully believe them, because many forecasting tools are not very accurate and sometimes change. You can observe how some whales work. If the prediction is accurate, everyone should now become millionaires, and the price of cryptocurrencies is likely to rise wildly because of the word "more optimistic" by whales. Some people will panic when the whale suddenly flips a coin, and follow the whale to sell their coins, causing the coins to fall. These are all sudden.

Forecasting tools may have value when you are trying to predict the weather (and even there they are more often than not quite bad depending on the time horizon of course), but in markets forecasting tools are problematic as they never catch the critical outliers that can destroy your investment totally. The reason it sometimes works is because everyone uses the same tools and they function like a sort of shelling point then. That sets free a herd movement towards that new price point. The question then becomes who chooses the smartest spot to sell before everyone else takes the opportunity.

[Nazmul012]

Firstly, No one is perfect and the reality is "crypto industry is always unable to predict".  For example, a few are able to understood the biggest bull run of the beginning of this year. Secondly, don't go for anyone predict if you don't know that person/institutions welly. Rather focus one or two currency at a time, collect news for fundamental analysis and take position according to your asset if you think that is best for you but Don't rely on any tools blindly

[OZmaster]

Forecasting tools may have value when you are trying to predict the weather (and even there they are more often than not quite bad depending on the time horizon of course), but in markets forecasting tools are problematic as they never catch the critical outliers that can destroy your investment totally. The reason it sometimes works is because everyone uses the same tools and they function like a sort of shelling point then. That sets free a herd movement towards that new price point. The question then becomes who chooses the smartest spot to sell before everyone else takes the opportunity.

This is not wrong, I have used many trading tools before but they are all the same, if it works this time does not mean it will work next time, the failure is that the bigger the loss. The best is to go for good coins like bitcoin, ethereum and binance coin when the price has decreased already, they all follow the price of bitcoin, wait for the price to decrease and buy. If the price has increasesld then sell, this is working for me.

Yes, if you go for the bigger market cap coins with a positive history, outliers aren't a problem. Those coins can of course also drop in price sharply, but they will return back to normal. That might be very different for low market cap coins that after dropping sharply in value just die subsequently or don't recover fully ever.

[tygeade]

I do believe that there is a good chance we could make a decent return thanks to using automated tools but the reality is that we are talking about something that is automated, as in preprogrammed.

It means that when there are chances in the crypto market we may end up seeing something that we never expected before and that is the risk we are taking, I am not really interested in taking those type of risks, it is really not that smart to let something automating handle all the things I should be doing manually, if the situation changes then automated can't change itself, it is not like some smart AI, it is just some programming, whereas I myself can change whatever I want according to the situation at hand. Which is why I never really enjoyed automated tools, bots or whatever, they are good for a while, but in the long term they are too dangerous and risky.

[KaliLinux]

I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.

People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?

But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?

Well, my question to this is, Since you have been using that service, did it seem correct to you? have you been able to make the right decision doing your crypto trading with this prediction? I understand with a lot of TAs understanding, some people might be thinking they know where the market is headed and might have worked out that way too but I wouldn't always base my investment on those services but will try to check for myself and invest in what I am sure and try to do that at the right time.

[goinmerry]

But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?

Never mind predictions and speculations. Predictions will stay predictions, so is speculations.

The market is volatile and most predictions are bound not to happen no matter how good it was backed up. Predictions are not meant to follow but it just giving us some previews and insights on what will happen in the given timeframe.

You have your own strategy so just follow it.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I do believe that there is a good chance we could make a decent return thanks to using automated tools but the reality is that we are talking about something that is automated, as in preprogrammed.

Yeah, if you are taking about trading bots, which has been taking this market already. That's why when it is triggered, there is a sudden dump in the price as speculators (shorters), have set it like that.

It means that when there are chances in the crypto market we may end up seeing something that we never expected before and that is the risk we are taking, I am not really interested in taking those type of risks, it is really not that smart to let something automating handle all the things I should be doing manually, if the situation changes then automated can't change itself, it is not like some smart AI, it is just some programming, whereas I myself can change whatever I want according to the situation at hand. Which is why I never really enjoyed automated tools, bots or whatever, they are good for a while, but in the long term they are too dangerous and risky.

Still based on human intervention, if traders didn't set up well then obviously they will lose money very quick. That's why I think there are still some old school traders in the market. Who uses their gut and experience for their daily trading activity and not rely on bots or automated software to do their task.

[michellee]

Firstly, No one is perfect and the reality is "crypto industry is always unable to predict".  For example, a few are able to understood the biggest bull run of the beginning of this year. Secondly, don't go for anyone predict if you don't know that person/institutions welly. Rather focus one or two currency at a time, collect news for fundamental analysis and take position according to your asset if you think that is best for you but Don't rely on any tools blindly

Maybe focusing on two currencies will be a good idea so he does not have too long to analyze. Maybe bitcoin or ethereum can give them a chance to make a profit than the other coins. It is better to analyze by ourselves to find the time to trade or make investments and not depend on other people we do not know. We should depend on ourselves in crypto because that will improve our skills in trading and investment, which can impact making a profit in the future.

[Qirtov]

Predicting the market is a difficult thing, don't rely too much on predictors because the market can change with the market. the important thing is that you have to understand the market, understand the stability of the coin, and know when to buy and sell coins. It sounds easy enough but you need to control your emotions to do all these things. You have to be really patient to monitor market developments.