Bitcoin Forum

I made this thread just to remind you that, in the last eight years, Bitcoin gave you the chance to increase your annual yield by 180%. Specifically, here's some satisfying results of the end of July overtime:

From 2013 to 2014: $94 -> $600 (538%)
From 2014 to 2015: $600 -> $292 (51%)
From 2015 to 2016: $292 -> $624 (113%)
From 2016 to 2017: $624 -> $2,700 (332%)
From 2017 to 2018: $2,700 -> $8,100 (200%)
From 2018 to 2019: $8,100 -> $10,100 (24%)
From 2019 to 2020: $10,100 -> $10,900 (7.9%)
From 2020 to 2021: $10,900 -> $40,000 (266%)

If you sum them all, you'll see that it's a 180% annual yield. If that number applies in the next eight years, we have on average:

From 2021 to 2022: $40,000 -> $72,000
From 2022 to 2023: $72,000 -> $129,600
From 2023 to 2024: $129,600 -> $233,280
From 2024 to 2025: $233,280 -> $419,904
From 2025 to 2026: $419,904 -> $755,827.2
From 2026 to 2027: $755,827.2 -> $1,360,488.96
From 2027 to 2028: $1,360,488.96 -> $2,448,880.13
From 2028 to 2029: $2,448,880.13 -> $4,407,984.23

Have a nice day.

This is the main reason why I personally don't see the need of using bitcoin lending platforms. Sure, an extra 5-8% yield off your bitcoin(on top of the bitcoin value increase) can be quite sweet, but in exchange for handing over custody? Hell nah, I'm happy with my annual 2x-3x multipliers.

Since the ancient times (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_banking), lending wasn't a bad idea. You indeed handed over your custody, but you were also informed about the bank you're depositing. It wasn't wise to keep your money into your closet; you should invest or yield them somewhere. But, I'm not sure about the lending terms of those websites. Do they ask for KYC? Do we know who are they? Lending Bitcoin pseudonymously is like giving a stranger some cash by the promise you'll get more in return. What makes me feel that he'll not rip me off using a bullshit excuse (e.g bankruptcy)?

Worth writing that by keeping your money, you're actually investing in its inflation. You should never keep fiat money for long-term commitments, but rather lend them if you're not interested in investing them in stocks or estate.

Generally, for your long-term wealth you should always invest into things that never lost their intrinsic value.

Good job BlackHat.

But you forgot to add the conclusion "Show me another retail investment vehicle that has had better performance gains over the last 8 years."  ;)

If bitcoin again takes bullish rally and makes upto $100k , than bitcoin could hit 1 million usd within three years or less than that.  ;D But it's great to have 2x-3x return annually rather than taking risks into other platforms or alts. Also, DCA will be the best strategy to grow our portfolio.  :D

Yeah, I put a bit of Bitcoin onto BlockFi a few months ago to get that 6% gain, but they've adjusted it down almost every single month since then, but now I get under 2%. It's less than a tenth of my bitcoin in the first place, as wasn't willing to risk more than that on a centralized place, but since they've cut my earnings rate by two-thirds in the past few months I will probably just move that back to my own address by end of this year. 2% is not worth giving over custody. 6% maybe, but 2% is bullshit.

Bitcoin @ 4.4 million would have a marketcap around ~77 trillion. The global GDP estimated today is 93.8 trillion US dollars. Do you seriously believe that a currency barely used for any consumer transactions and being used as an asset by a small number of tech companies has a chance to absorb most of world's GDP in 8 years?

IMO it's time to say goodbye to expected 180% returns and settle for more realistic 50% returns or 25% returns, which is still very good.

Yeah, better to expect a realistic gain of 50% because that's a good numbers already.

Also we have to consider that the exponential growth will slow down and obviously there is a massive growth spurt in the beginning of bitcoin market.

But this growth is a good numbers to hedge against those anti-bitcoin, would love on how they contradict this because we all know that numbers don't lie.

Given that BlockFi are currently caught up in a bunch of legal battles and are facing having some of their activities and products limited or even shutdown altogether, I think that would be a wise move. I doubt they would actively try to keep your coins from you, but since they are a fractional reserve system and loan out all the coins which are deposited to their platform (how else would they generate their profits), then if lots of people try to withdraw their coins in the face of regulations or legal troubles you could end up with effectively a bank run.

It won't reach the world's GBP in 8 years obviously, but it could very well be worth $4.4 million when the Fed casually prints a few more trillion and USD devalues by another >90%.

I think the reason why it went down was due to the GBTC premium. Most of the BTC they were borrowing was for GBTC so market makers could milk the premium. However when the premium disappeared and turned negative they got in trouble. Hence why they couldn't afford to pay the 6% or so. And 6% in my opinion was a rip off since they were making more than double it for your BTCs.

Whats popular is to lend USD and USDT however. Those historically (except bear markets) usually will yield you around 10% a year. So if you sold some crypto that you don't need. You can just lend it out for 10% instead of leaving it in your bank account to get 0.5% APY. However keep in mind there is still counterparty risks, You can't lend it while its in cold storage.

The key word here is “today”. In disruptive innovation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation#Potential_opportunities), digital transformation is the most potential opportunity. In 2028-2029 that I have predicted $2.4M - $4.8M, you can't be sure about the GDP.


Since when USDT can be kept in a cold storage? It is completely centralized and the mint is Tether Limited AKA Bitfinex. How do you think they manage to balance it with the USD's value?

But there's nothing wrong with doing the lending platforms, I mean I make a lot of my portfolio through those although I agree that surrendering full custody of your coins is a bad thing so I only use about 25% of my bitcoin there and the other sit for a long while throughout all the seasons.

That is a fallacy. It's like if you say I can't have $1M net worth because my annual income is $50K.

The GDP is the annual income, the wealth accumulated is another thing.

Total global wealth is $431 trillion. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwilliams1/2021/06/10/worlds-wealth-hits-half-a-quadrillion-dollars/)

It is, of course, possible that Bitcoin, which is currently succeeding as a store of value, will absorb much of that figure. That is the thesis of Saylor and others.


On this I do agree, it would be normal for growth to slow down.

Let's try to look on the other way around,

With the current price of Bitcoin and volume, is there any chance that we could experience what happened from 2014 to 2015?
Like if you can see, 48% down from that year. If this is the case, short-term investors or believe will only get affected, and if you are for the long term, it will be worth it, the first post is the evedence.

There are double the amount of counterparty risks. Obviously there is all the risk from depositing your coins with a third party lending platform, and there is also all the risk from holding a centralized coin which is owned, operated, and controlled by a single entity and is not backed up 1-to-1 with USD as has been claimed. You are at double the risk of default, double the risk of bank runs, and double the risk of losing everything. All for what? 0.5% a year? No thanks.

You can still move USDT to a hardware wallet, for example, but as you rightly point out, it remains entirely centralized meaning Tether can choose to freeze your coins and addresses and render your USDT worthless, even if it is in cold storage.

A 50% drop from current prices is only back to $20k. That is absolutely within the realms of possibility. We may well never see that price again, but what a great time to buy the dip if we do.

Ahh, I just have to hold for 2 more halvings and it's going to be a dream come true. <3
The projection is lovely to look at and even if we know that there would usually be the crashes that we have to consider, still having this positivity until we finally see those 6-7 digits will be the best days of our lives.

You also have to trust the fiat currency these guys in Bitfinex are trying to balance with your “stable” coin. If the dollar inflates, so does the Tether, because 1 USDT should always be equal with 1 USD. So, I'd say it's tripling the amount of counterparty risks.

I've never googled it, but how is the verification of the transactions done? Are there blocks? Are we talking about a cryptocurrency that works on a block chain and uses cryptography to operate? If it's centralized, there's no point to require any mechanism for the verification; there's not even a point on using cryptography besides the coin control part. I guess that ECDSA would still be needed to prove you own USDT.

That's also true, and even if you ignore the fact that Tether only hold about ~5% of the total USDT in cash (yes, 5%, you read that right: https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/tether-march-31-2021-reserves-breakdown.pdf), then holding USDT is even worse than holding fiat in terms of security and gradually but steadily losing money.

It's a token. It was initially launched on Bitcoin's Omni layer, and then spread to an Ethereum ERC20 token as well as a token on a number of other altcoin platforms. Because it is run from a smart contract, Tether have the ability to blacklist coins, freeze transactions, and issue new coins, all from any address, at any time. It matters not if you've moved your USDT on to an Ethereum address generated from an airgapped machine. Do something Tether don't like, and your coins are worthless. Not to mention at any point they could just give themselves a few billion tokens and dump them on the market. (Although if you look at the exponential rise in their marketcap - from $20 billion to $60 billion in the last 6 months - some might argue they are already doing exactly that.)

Did you mean -51%?

Netflix (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/NFLX?mod=MW_story_quote) comes closest with a 3,767% (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-20-best-performing-stocks-of-the-past-decade-and-some-of-them-will-surprise-you-2019-12-09) increase in 10 years. But it still can't keep up with Bitcoin.

If you compare to GDP, many other markets are ridiculously large too. Forex trading for instance does $6.6 trillion (https://tokenist.com/investing/forex-statistics/) per day, and is worth $2,409 trillion (https://tokenist.com/investing/forex-statistics/) (17 times larger than global GDP). So compared to Forex trading, Bitcoin is now at only 0.03% and can easily grow a whole lot bigger!

I agree though, exponential growth will at some point have to flatten towards an S curve.

Yes, but the question is when? From the next halving? The one after that?
I think 150%-200% is still very possible. That's just over $100k compared to the current price.

I don't really think that there is any doubt that there are huge benefits for holding your bitcoin for as long as you can however one of the problems with projections like this one is that it is getting harder and harder for bitcoin to grow simply because the market cap of bitcoin is growing each time the price goes up.

So I think those numbers will need to be adjusted a little bit as I do not think that bitcoin is going to be able to keep up the growth that it had during their previous eight years during the next eight years, despite all of this it is a great exercise to show the newbies how incredibly profitable holding bitcoin has been and how incredibly profitable it will still be.

Okay, fair, let's use global wealth. Let's say it will reach 700 trillion, so Bitcoin representing 11% of it is still insanely high. Gold is one of the most popular stores of value, and it has a market capitalization if 11.54 trillion. How can Bitcoin reach a 7 times higher price than that if it's not even universally better than gold, as it relies on electricity and Internet that can theoretically be disrupted. And it still has regulatory risks looming above it.

When I said cold storage I meant you are protected against some hacker stealing your USDT. Basically if you got it on Omni you can use Armory for cold storage and if you got it on ETH you can use MEW or hardware wallet. So your USDT can’t get stolen by some malware.

The fact that it’s centralized I assumed it was obvious. However it’s better keeping it in cold storage rather than on some exchange somewhere. And does tether Blacklist any coins? The only ones I can think off are those $30M that was stolen a few years hack. Since then haven’t heard any end users getting their tether confiscated.

I mean, if you manage to do that, I think that you will be able to enjoy maximum profit and if along the way you are also accumulating a lot of bitcoin to increase your portfolio little by little and you take care of yourself so as to not have any health problems that will cause you to prematurely sell your portfolio then you will get what you deserve. And you also have to face the temptations along the way because prices go up each year which might entice you into selling early than your target.

This is taking a step backward to see the bigger picture. And it presents us something beautiful. Oftentimes, many people are focused on checking out the price every minute of the day to the point that they are being deeply affected by its instability and sometimes even do untimely buying and selling. Sometimes they miss taking a step backward and realize that it is actually an option to just buy and forget about the daily or hourly price changes, and that it is actually profitable, more convenient, and less stressful that way.

Yep, my bad.

When the whole world adopts it. If you believe this will never happen, so won't the stability. If it ever happens, I predict around one halving after the CBDCs' introduction.

The most significant is that they have financial sovereignty. All those you said are extras.

Good data and good analyze, but i think we are at $18k in 2018 right ? And i am still believing that in this cycle we will reach above $100k at the end of 2021. The reason for my prediction is also the covid 19 is still around especialy at emerging country and we possibly will see another outbrake then goverment will create more fiat money which leads btc goes up again Versus anothet fiat currencies.

Although I am unsure of how he selected those values, I believe it refers to the date when the post was published. So the price of $8,100 for one bitcoin was on July 30, 2018.
By the way, if we cherry-pick some other specific dates we might be able to see even higher yields.

I am not in favor of calculating the future returns in %. Back in the 90s, it was not unusual to have IT stocks to give 100x or 200x returns (during the dot com boom). But you can't expect the same stocks (such as AMZN, EBAY, DELL, MSFT and AMD) to give similar returns in % terms in the next 10 years. But if you look at the market cap, then you will find that the increase in market cap these stocks had recently (in absolute numbers) is higher than what they gave during the dot com boom. I will give one example, of that of AMZN.

During the dot com boom, AMZN went up by 5,000% and the market cap increased from $760 million to $54 billion. The increase in market cap is $53 billion.

Now take the returns from AMZN since 2020 January. In % terms, the increase was 78%. But the absolute increase in market cap was an astounding $740 billion.

The same will happen with Bitcoin, as the market matures. I don't really expect 50x or 100x spikes now. But it possible that the market cap may increase by trillions of USD in the near future. 

Nice work to give a clear data on the percentage of profiting. For people who have made 100x returns from traditional investments won't prioritise it. For a 100x return they might've waited a long. The risk with those investment seems to be low. Now people are more positive about bitcoin. Earlier even a small crash makes steep deviation in the price, because of the panic selling. Now everyone knew, if it drops later it'll recover.

As in the previous quote, the marketcap increases along with the increase in the price. This takes place as a result of market getting maturity.

The dollar is worth less in 2021 then 2000 and 1990, part of the gains we see are losses from inflation and its slightly deceptive from that.   The low cost of money and debt is beneficial to some companies, certainly it seems to benefit internet companies and perhaps also the Bitcoin ecosystem benefits from weak dollar.    In 1990 $1000 into CSCO shares would have been a million dollars nominally by the end of the decade, 18k in MSFT would have done similarly.   I wasn't aware of Cisco back then but I tried the first few Windows versions and realized the product would do well in the mainstream, I had no idea the shares would grow quite that much and a large part of the story is the FED policy and fiscal expansion during the 90's
   I do expect deflation to occur eventually, inflation does not equate to growth its an efficiency loss that makes people poorer overall which will show up eventually.    Due to the amount of dollar debt, I expect BTC to be a safer place which will be surprising to many and its impossible to predict how that looks on a chart.    100k by year end isn't necessary, even next year I'd be fine if it stayed flat from here for 2 years or only regained the highs all that is a very positive outcome in a volatile world imo.

Yes, of course. I agree. That's more important. Bitcoin is for financial independence. But people are now more focused on its price movements rather than on its features. Instead of financial sovereignty, people are now leaving their funds in exchange wallets and other places outside their control resulting to a lot of headaches. Some are losing money because of how they handle the changes in Bitcoin's price. We could say people are now stuck on what you call extras or the trivial aspects of Bitcoin.

Actually, its price movements is a feature. The fact that people are attracted of getting richer isn't caused only by their immoral behavior. It's the hierarchical structure of Bitcoin that makes them do so. I'll give the simplest example, although there are others too; if you have 1 BTC and observe this 180% annual yield it provides you, you won't want to spend it. You'll prefer to do it in the future, when your wealth will be greater than today. That's caused by deflation and it damages the economy, because money stays still.

So, that's a reason why people are attracted mainly on keeping it; to become richer.

That's for sure and I just have to endure all of those good prices that might come also after the next halving. I'm sure that there will be good prices that will allow everyone to enjoy the profits. But that's part of the goal now, to at least make sure that I'll be able to surpass 2 or more halvings and for sure we'll see the price of bitcoin massively by those times. I don't see the connection between having health problems and selling. Maybe if you're going to need serious medical treatment and it requires you to sell, maybe that's it.

I definitely respect your view but I think I can hardly consider the price movements of Bitcoin as a feature. It is not part of Bitcoin itself. It is external. Bitcoin actually stands on its own with its fundamental features away from the fiat price people attach to its native currency. Bitcoin earned followers even before its currency acquired price equivalent in fiat. Bitcoin is definitely unlike other cryptocurrencies which are assigned with a fiat price right from beginning.

The fact that it's not controlled by anyone is a feature. It'd be a matter of time until entities manipulated its price due to that fact. Indirectly, price fluctuations is a Bitcoin feature, but anyway.

What? What other cryptocurrencies are assigned with a fiat price right from the beginning?

You sound surprised and I am quite surprised with it. There are thousands of them but we shouldn't go far and take a look at Ethereum instead, Bitcoin's second in terms of market cap and popularity. When Ethereum was launched in 2014, there was an ICO for the development funding and each ETH was assigned a value and sold at 0.3 dollars each. Thousands of others are doing this as well. Bitcoin, on the other hand, didn't have an assigned fiat value when it was introduced.

And yet people want to buy into the idea of bitcoin trading. For what?

Just buy and hold, people. That mantra is true not just for bitcoin but across a range of asset classes.

Short term gains may be tempting, but it forces you into a narrow lens that is very hard to get out of. Truly believing in bitcoin as a long term store of value and asset class will allow you to get that time in the market that is much more important than timing the market.

Didn't know it, thanks. Well, I'm not in favor of any other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin & Monero, which made me really curious which ones were funded in the beginning. Obviously, huh, Ethereum... I knew they premined around the 70% of the total coins, but I didn't know that it was ICO-ed too. This cryptocurrency is being seen worse from me as time goes on.  :P

I just hope it was accurate. I believe we are in almost a heights of what BTC should be. 100K for me is the highest price that BTC could reach. I don't think it could hit a million within 10 years. It's just me considering the Market cap.

Here I was thinking money doesn't grow on tree's  :P but seeing those numbers by the Op, we all need to spare some cypto for this purpose specifically.

With a little patience I don't think we could go wrong, numbers have been run for past performance and furure forecast of what's likely to happen,  numbers don't lie lie .

Why limiting the price of Bitcoin to $100k when there is so much potential at which bitcoin could reach, let's reach for the stars say $500k or $1million  in the next 10-20 years.

Sorry, but why 100k exactly? Why shouldn't it reach gold's market cap for example, where each coin would cost ~$400k? Why would you consider that impossible? Let's assume that it reaches 100k. Doesn't this 180% annual yield make you wonder if it'll go beyond that by far overtime?

Even if it isn't 180% every year on average and it's something like 90%, it'll still reach $1M pretty sooner than in two decades.

No problem. Anyway, I think you are not the only person I've encountered who's only choice outside Bitcoin is Monero. But for me, I have nothing against Ethereum. They've done quite a good job, although I am aware that many will not agree with me. And it certainly wasn't a bad choice for early buyers of ETH either. They've made profit out of it and they've seen significant development and product releases. Unlike many of the proceeding crypto projects that raised funds through an ICO, especially in 2017 and 2018, Ethereum did show something.

It's really simple, the people that want to trade fall into several narrow categories, there are some that are simply too greedy for their own good, they want money and they understand that bitcoin is not going to be able to give the huge profits that it gave in the past so they are trying to compensate by becoming traders.

There are others that are just gamblers, they like to think of themselves as traders but they do not really have an idea what they're doing and as such they are chasing excitement more than anything, and there are others that cannot simply deal with the idea of earning money while doing nothing and they choose to actively trade the markets instead of just holding their coins.

Just have faith that it will go up in that point, I think that bitcoin is an appreciating market so we don't have to worry too much that it wouldn't grow 180% annually because it will do and the decade that it did is enough proof in my opinion.

We dare not make realistic predictions about the price of Bitcoin in the next 20 years. The price of Bitcoin depends on too many factors. Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high, and the Bitcoin price is currently at $41k. Usually, it is a better idea to buy cryptocurrencies when they are in a downturn. However, we all remember how it was too late to buy BTC when it was $20, $100, $1000, $20,000, etc. If the estimates come true, the price may run into millions of dollars. Bitcoin's potential is definitely strong.

What OP did isn't wrong, it's an estimate plus it's just a prediction and it's alright for a prediction to go wrong. Of course, it's good buy crypto when it's on a downturn but if you think about it, any time can be the right time especially if you're aiming for the long-term.

Indeed, most of the users will buy it and leave this industry when they'll be on profits. But only those will keep hodling bitcoin even if bitcoin hits $1 million or more  who knows the potential of bitcoin. So it's just a matter of time as more users will be filtered through the cycle. But adoption won't stop in the upcoming days which is the best thing for bitcoin to hit those milestone, IMHO.  ;)

I am sure there will be people who are holding when bitcoin hits a million dollars. The question is not if there will be one, the question is how long will they be holding when that happens?

There are people who are holding now, but it could be a person who bought at 40k, or it could be someone who bought at $40 as well, anyone who holds it since it was $40 made enough money to retire, even if they bought just few of them, you may end up retiring on few hundred thousand dollars if you want to live a small life and can use that smartly, after all in most nations 10-15k is yearly salary for billions around the world, that means with 100k you have 10 years, with 400k you have 40 years, that is retirement money easily. Same here, if you can buy now, and hold until 1 million dollars then you can definitely be called a good holder, if you buy at 950k and hold when it is 1 million, that is not a big deal.

While what the OP did is interesting this is something that cannot be maintained, so some sort of adjustment is needed to give a more realistic projection.

However at the end of the day it does not matter, what matters is that on average the price of bitcoin is going up each year and as such the best moment to enter the market was yesterday, but since that is not possible then the best next moment is to enter the market now, after all as things are going you will still need to buy bitcoin in the future anyway so why not do it now when the price is cheap?