Buy Bitcoin and hold it: 180% annual yield on average since the first halving

[wxa7115]

I made this thread just to remind you that, in the last eight years, Bitcoin gave you the chance to increase your annual yield by 180%. Specifically, here's some satisfying results of the end of July overtime:

From 2013 to 2014: $94 -> $600 (538%)
From 2014 to 2015: $600 -> $292 (48%)
From 2015 to 2016: $292 -> $624 (113%)
From 2016 to 2017: $624 -> $2,700 (332%)
From 2017 to 2018: $2,700 -> $8,100 (200%)
From 2018 to 2019: $8,100 -> $10,100 (24%)
From 2019 to 2020: $10,100 -> $10,900 (7.9%)
From 2020 to 2021: $10,900 -> $40,000 (266%)

If you sum them all, you'll see that it's a 180% annual yield. If that number applies in the next eight years, we have on average:

From 2021 to 2022: $40,000 -> $72,000
From 2022 to 2023: $72,000 -> $129,600
From 2023 to 2024: $129,600 -> $233,280
From 2024 to 2025: $233,280 -> $419,904
From 2025 to 2026: $419,904 -> $755,827.2
From 2026 to 2027: $755,827.2 -> $1,360,488.96
From 2027 to 2028: $1,360,488.96 -> $2,448,880.13
From 2028 to 2029: $2,448,880.13 -> $4,407,984.23

Have a nice day.

I don't really think that there is any doubt that there are huge benefits for holding your bitcoin for as long as you can however one of the problems with projections like this one is that it is getting harder and harder for bitcoin to grow simply because the market cap of bitcoin is growing each time the price goes up.

So I think those numbers will need to be adjusted a little bit as I do not think that bitcoin is going to be able to keep up the growth that it had during their previous eight years during the next eight years, despite all of this it is a great exercise to show the newbies how incredibly profitable holding bitcoin has been and how incredibly profitable it will still be.

[1714738367]

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[1714738367]

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[hatshepsut93]

That is a fallacy. It's like if you say I can't have $1M net worth because my annual income is $50K.

The GDP is the annual income, the wealth accumulated is another thing.


Total global wealth is $431 trillion.

It is, of course, possible that Bitcoin, which is currently succeeding as a store of value, will absorb much of that figure. That is the thesis of Saylor and others.

Okay, fair, let's use global wealth. Let's say it will reach 700 trillion, so Bitcoin representing 11% of it is still insanely high. Gold is one of the most popular stores of value, and it has a market capitalization if 11.54 trillion. How can Bitcoin reach a 7 times higher price than that if it's not even universally better than gold, as it relies on electricity and Internet that can theoretically be disrupted. And it still has regulatory risks looming above it.

[adaseb]

When I said cold storage I meant you are protected against some hacker stealing your USDT. Basically if you got it on Omni you can use Armory for cold storage and if you got it on ETH you can use MEW or hardware wallet. So your USDT can’t get stolen by some malware.

The fact that it’s centralized I assumed it was obvious. However it’s better keeping it in cold storage rather than on some exchange somewhere. And does tether Blacklist any coins? The only ones I can think off are those $30M that was stolen a few years hack. Since then haven’t heard any end users getting their tether confiscated.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

Ahh, I just have to hold for 2 more halvings and it's going to be a dream come true. <3
The projection is lovely to look at and even if we know that there would usually be the crashes that we have to consider, still having this positivity until we finally see those 6-7 digits will be the best days of our lives.

I mean, if you manage to do that, I think that you will be able to enjoy maximum profit and if along the way you are also accumulating a lot of bitcoin to increase your portfolio little by little and you take care of yourself so as to not have any health problems that will cause you to prematurely sell your portfolio then you will get what you deserve. And you also have to face the temptations along the way because prices go up each year which might entice you into selling early than your target.

[Fundamentals Of]

This is taking a step backward to see the bigger picture. And it presents us something beautiful. Oftentimes, many people are focused on checking out the price every minute of the day to the point that they are being deeply affected by its instability and sometimes even do untimely buying and selling. Sometimes they miss taking a step backward and realize that it is actually an option to just buy and forget about the daily or hourly price changes, and that it is actually profitable, more convenient, and less stressful that way.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Did you mean -51%?

Yep, my bad.

Yes, but the question is when? From the next halving? The one after that?

When the whole world adopts it. If you believe this will never happen, so won't the stability. If it ever happens, I predict around one halving after the CBDCs' introduction.

Sometimes they miss taking a step backward and realize that it is actually an option to just buy and forget about the daily or hourly price changes, and that it is actually profitable, more convenient, and less stressful that way.

The most significant is that they have financial sovereignty. All those you said are extras.

[fia_naila]

I made this thread just to remind you that, in the last eight years, Bitcoin gave you the chance to increase your annual yield by 180%. Specifically, here's some satisfying results of the end of July overtime:

From 2013 to 2014: $94 -> $600 (538%)
From 2014 to 2015: $600 -> $292 (48%)
From 2015 to 2016: $292 -> $624 (113%)
From 2016 to 2017: $624 -> $2,700 (332%)
From 2017 to 2018: $2,700 -> $8,100 (200%)
From 2018 to 2019: $8,100 -> $10,100 (24%)
From 2019 to 2020: $10,100 -> $10,900 (7.9%)
From 2020 to 2021: $10,900 -> $40,000 (266%)

If you sum them all, you'll see that it's a 180% annual yield. If that number applies in the next eight years, we have on average:

From 2021 to 2022: $40,000 -> $72,000
From 2022 to 2023: $72,000 -> $129,600
From 2023 to 2024: $129,600 -> $233,280
From 2024 to 2025: $233,280 -> $419,904
From 2025 to 2026: $419,904 -> $755,827.2
From 2026 to 2027: $755,827.2 -> $1,360,488.96
From 2027 to 2028: $1,360,488.96 -> $2,448,880.13
From 2028 to 2029: $2,448,880.13 -> $4,407,984.23

Have a nice day.

Good data and good analyze, but i think we are at $18k in 2018 right ? And i am still believing that in this cycle we will reach above $100k at the end of 2021. The reason for my prediction is also the covid 19 is still around especialy at emerging country and we possibly will see another outbrake then goverment will create more fiat money which leads btc goes up again Versus anothet fiat currencies.

[decodx]

Good data and good analyze, but i think we are at $18k in 2018 right ?

Although I am unsure of how he selected those values, I believe it refers to the date when the post was published. So the price of $8,100 for one bitcoin was on July 30, 2018.
By the way, if we cherry-pick some other specific dates we might be able to see even higher yields.

[bryant.coleman]

I am not in favor of calculating the future returns in %. Back in the 90s, it was not unusual to have IT stocks to give 100x or 200x returns (during the dot com boom). But you can't expect the same stocks (such as AMZN, EBAY, DELL, MSFT and AMD) to give similar returns in % terms in the next 10 years. But if you look at the market cap, then you will find that the increase in market cap these stocks had recently (in absolute numbers) is higher than what they gave during the dot com boom. I will give one example, of that of AMZN.

During the dot com boom, AMZN went up by 5,000% and the market cap increased from $760 million to $54 billion. The increase in market cap is $53 billion.

Now take the returns from AMZN since 2020 January. In % terms, the increase was 78%. But the absolute increase in market cap was an astounding $740 billion.

The same will happen with Bitcoin, as the market matures. I don't really expect 50x or 100x spikes now. But it possible that the market cap may increase by trillions of USD in the near future. 

[romero121]

Nice work to give a clear data on the percentage of profiting. For people who have made 100x returns from traditional investments won't prioritise it. For a 100x return they might've waited a long. The risk with those investment seems to be low. Now people are more positive about bitcoin. Earlier even a small crash makes steep deviation in the price, because of the panic selling. Now everyone knew, if it drops later it'll recover.

As in the previous quote, the marketcap increases along with the increase in the price. This takes place as a result of market getting maturity.

[STT]

The dollar is worth less in 2021 then 2000 and 1990, part of the gains we see are losses from inflation and its slightly deceptive from that.   The low cost of money and debt is beneficial to some companies, certainly it seems to benefit internet companies and perhaps also the Bitcoin ecosystem benefits from weak dollar.    In 1990 $1000 into CSCO shares would have been a million dollars nominally by the end of the decade, 18k in MSFT would have done similarly.   I wasn't aware of Cisco back then but I tried the first few Windows versions and realized the product would do well in the mainstream, I had no idea the shares would grow quite that much and a large part of the story is the FED policy and fiscal expansion during the 90's
   I do expect deflation to occur eventually, inflation does not equate to growth its an efficiency loss that makes people poorer overall which will show up eventually.    Due to the amount of dollar debt, I expect BTC to be a safer place which will be surprising to many and its impossible to predict how that looks on a chart.    100k by year end isn't necessary, even next year I'd be fine if it stayed flat from here for 2 years or only regained the highs all that is a very positive outcome in a volatile world imo.

[Fundamentals Of]

Sometimes they miss taking a step backward and realize that it is actually an option to just buy and forget about the daily or hourly price changes, and that it is actually profitable, more convenient, and less stressful that way.

The most significant is that they have financial sovereignty. All those you said are extras.

Yes, of course. I agree. That's more important. Bitcoin is for financial independence. But people are now more focused on its price movements rather than on its features. Instead of financial sovereignty, people are now leaving their funds in exchange wallets and other places outside their control resulting to a lot of headaches. Some are losing money because of how they handle the changes in Bitcoin's price. We could say people are now stuck on what you call extras or the trivial aspects of Bitcoin.

[BlackHatCoiner]

But people are now more focused on its price movements rather than on its features.

Actually, its price movements is a feature. The fact that people are attracted of getting richer isn't caused only by their immoral behavior. It's the hierarchical structure of Bitcoin that makes them do so. I'll give the simplest example, although there are others too; if you have 1 BTC and observe this 180% annual yield it provides you, you won't want to spend it. You'll prefer to do it in the future, when your wealth will be greater than today. That's caused by deflation and it damages the economy, because money stays still.

So, that's a reason why people are attracted mainly on keeping it; to become richer.

[tabas]

Ahh, I just have to hold for 2 more halvings and it's going to be a dream come true. <3
The projection is lovely to look at and even if we know that there would usually be the crashes that we have to consider, still having this positivity until we finally see those 6-7 digits will be the best days of our lives.

I mean, if you manage to do that, I think that you will be able to enjoy maximum profit and if along the way you are also accumulating a lot of bitcoin to increase your portfolio little by little and you take care of yourself so as to not have any health problems that will cause you to prematurely sell your portfolio then you will get what you deserve. And you also have to face the temptations along the way because prices go up each year which might entice you into selling early than your target.

That's for sure and I just have to endure all of those good prices that might come also after the next halving. I'm sure that there will be good prices that will allow everyone to enjoy the profits. But that's part of the goal now, to at least make sure that I'll be able to surpass 2 or more halvings and for sure we'll see the price of bitcoin massively by those times. I don't see the connection between having health problems and selling. Maybe if you're going to need serious medical treatment and it requires you to sell, maybe that's it.

[Fundamentals Of]

But people are now more focused on its price movements rather than on its features.

Actually, its price movements is a feature. The fact that people are attracted of getting richer isn't caused only by their immoral behavior. It's the hierarchical structure of Bitcoin that makes them do so. I'll give the simplest example, although there are others too; if you have 1 BTC and observe this 180% annual yield it provides you, you won't want to spend it. You'll prefer to do it in the future, when your wealth will be greater than today. That's caused by deflation and it damages the economy, because money stays still.

So, that's a reason why people are attracted mainly on keeping it; to become richer.

I definitely respect your view but I think I can hardly consider the price movements of Bitcoin as a feature. It is not part of Bitcoin itself. It is external. Bitcoin actually stands on its own with its fundamental features away from the fiat price people attach to its native currency. Bitcoin earned followers even before its currency acquired price equivalent in fiat. Bitcoin is definitely unlike other cryptocurrencies which are assigned with a fiat price right from beginning.

[BlackHatCoiner]

I definitely respect your view but I think I can hardly consider the price movements of Bitcoin as a feature. It is not part of Bitcoin itself.

The fact that it's not controlled by anyone is a feature. It'd be a matter of time until entities manipulated its price due to that fact. Indirectly, price fluctuations is a Bitcoin feature, but anyway.

Bitcoin is definitely unlike other cryptocurrencies which are assigned with a fiat price right from beginning.

What? What other cryptocurrencies are assigned with a fiat price right from the beginning?

[Fundamentals Of]

Bitcoin is definitely unlike other cryptocurrencies which are assigned with a fiat price right from beginning.

What? What other cryptocurrencies are assigned with a fiat price right from the beginning?

You sound surprised and I am quite surprised with it. There are thousands of them but we shouldn't go far and take a look at Ethereum instead, Bitcoin's second in terms of market cap and popularity. When Ethereum was launched in 2014, there was an ICO for the development funding and each ETH was assigned a value and sold at 0.3 dollars each. Thousands of others are doing this as well. Bitcoin, on the other hand, didn't have an assigned fiat value when it was introduced.

[magneto]

And yet people want to buy into the idea of bitcoin trading. For what?

Just buy and hold, people. That mantra is true not just for bitcoin but across a range of asset classes.

Short term gains may be tempting, but it forces you into a narrow lens that is very hard to get out of. Truly believing in bitcoin as a long term store of value and asset class will allow you to get that time in the market that is much more important than timing the market.

[BlackHatCoiner]

When Ethereum was launched in 2014, there was an ICO for the development funding and each ETH was assigned a value and sold at 0.3 dollars each.

Didn't know it, thanks. Well, I'm not in favor of any other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin & Monero, which made me really curious which ones were funded in the beginning. Obviously, huh, Ethereum... I knew they premined around the 70% of the total coins, but I didn't know that it was ICO-ed too. This cryptocurrency is being seen worse from me as time goes on. 

[Snappycoco]

I just hope it was accurate. I believe we are in almost a heights of what BTC should be. 100K for me is the highest price that BTC could reach. I don't think it could hit a million within 10 years. It's just me considering the Market cap.