Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving which we can expect its price to go up just like in 2017 and it also recurs this year. But after the next year, we also experience the bear market which is also cycling every after the bull market.

The adoption this year had made the new generations wake up learning how to invest and trade to make money in the crypto market. More Bitcoin holders are coming. The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?  I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.

I for one tends to believed that we might see a super cycle, but after seeing what goes this December? Which historically is a good month, I don't think we will like 2 super cycle or bull runs.

We might see the repeating cycle of every 4 years and it can still holds true this bulls/bears in 2021. So again, everyone should be prepared as we might experienced a bearish cycle already, just saying.

This year was definitely better than the last, but in the end — only time will tell. I don't think this year is going to be the mythical "supercycle" whereas we wouldn't have like 70-90% drawdowns again because there's still just so much money on useless cryptocurrencies, but I wouldn't say it's impossible.

Not sure if the halving cycle is going to continue like that. The biggest drops came from the first three hangings, but now the majority of Bitcoin's are already mined. The amount of btc miners get is very small now, which means that the price can't drop too low, otherwise mining won't be profitable anymore. All the large mining farms have a certain minium price for electricity, hardware and Internet. So if BTC ever drops too low we wouldn't see any new coins coming to the market. That is why the halving cycle should be not so dominant anymore.

Nobody knows that for sure.

We can only see it happen once it happens. The supercycle they say, we all want that to see and make 2022 a continuity of the bull run that has happened since last year.

But it's also worrisome that a bear market would follow this bull run. We really don't know.

Price continuing to go up has nothing to do with the supercycle. In fact one indication of the end of such cycles is if price continues to go up but at a slower pace.

For example take previous cycle. We had about 13000% rise in that whole cycle. In comparison in this cycle we only had a much smaller 2100% rise. To repeat the same cycle (that includes the big bear market) price needs to first rise up as much (which means reaching $400k+) in a very short time (like 3 months for example) then the bubble blows up and we enter the bear market.
If price stops the big rises here and instead we start seeing a much slower rise and a price like $400k is reached in a year then the "cycle" will have ended successfully.

Keep in mind that FUD and other online nonsense doesn't affect the long term projection. They just create chaos in short term.

Yes while reading the op I was thinking about the so called altcoin money. More specifically the money which is getting injected into meme coins and NFT also. Moreover recently we are seeing spikes on the meta verse end also so it’s really gonna be hard to say confidently that bitcoin will get more holders. Peeps here want quick money, they do not want to hold for longer periods because they are either into quick business or just don’t have the patience.

I mean it’s worth thinking why invest in bitcoin if they are getting same profits over short period of time. The risk and stuff is another discussion but meanwhile it is actually happening.

Sure, the halving cause some drift, the question is how much ?

Obviously most of the dumping doesn't necessarily need to be from miners, they could definitely mostly be from retail buyers who don't know what they're doing and just joined the hype. And once the hype dies down, newbie retail buyers dump their coins because it's crashing à la domino effect.

Bitcoin already hits multiple new all time highs after its halving in May 2020. It is just its current all time high which is around $69k does not satisfy investors and speculators. If all of us believe that Bitcoin will hit $100k soon, it might not hit it soon. When we all give up such dream, Bitcoin will touch it.

Adoption is exponentially increasing and we are witnessing more big tech companies engage more into crypto. Governments gradually have to admit advances of Blockchain technology so that we might have massive adoption, growth and legal tenders globally.

About cycle, I believe we are still in a super cycle that might reach its peak in next 4 years. After that we might have a serious correction on big scale for a superb cycle.

This could have happened so rapidly without even having to wait every half year. The market that is now in front of our eyes is no longer a market that has been stagnant and has remained silent for longer. Received a bit of bad news, the price immediately corrected, even more sensitive than we thought. Bitcoin must indeed be separated from Fud which is often claimed by state leaders, institutions or even influencers on behalf of the biggest Bitcoin holders. The fact is we can't avoid it. Prices are relatively volatile but also recover more quickly. With a cycle like this, the price of Bitcoin will not fall too deep, because they also need Bitcoin to store value. It can be seen that when the Bitcoin market is correcting, there will be a group of whales ready to make a profit. Instantly a significant increase occurred again. The $45,000+ price tag is the most common price for Bitcoin right now.

When you say 'we will still', are you asking if that will be the case in this current market cycle or if it will continue to occur for years to come? For the latter, I'll say no, the Bitcoin market is changing rapidly over the years, volatility is gradually reducing, meaning there's less price spikes and dips. A market cycle where the price bubbles up and then bursts leading to a bear period would not always be the case, but we could rather have gradual growth, which will disinterest a lot of speculators, but will open the door to more use cases for Bitcoin.

What makes you think the market is about to dip?

Well if you are in the long-term chart like in the weekly, you can see the RSI indicates it hasn't yet dropped to its bottom 30. And it can only mean that it will have to go to that point before going up. AS of the moment, the situation was just like in the month of May-July this year where the price move sideways around $30K-$35K.
If it has to bounce up again, it could be in January 2022. We however still could consider it a bubble as it had not dipped to its bottom yet.

The only reason I could site that is hasn't gone too low is because more institutional investors are putting thier money on in crypto due to the FED situation. But if the big investors decide to dump because they know it has to come to the bottom before going up again, we'll be going bear for months when a la domino effect happens.

Will we see a bounce like it did in mid-July?

I am sure we will still face the bear and the bull in the next years because that will be part of the cryptocurrency. The problem is how those new generations will be ready for that time as they don't have much experience like the others who already have crypto experience. If they want to learn more details about crypto and know that the bull and the bear will be on the crypto, they will not be afraid instead will try to figure out how they can use the moment for their benefit. The key is to survive in any situation and conditions because the crypto market will always be volatile.

Supercycle is a narrative created by bulls to instigate FOMO. It's not realistic to think that Bitcoin can go only up for really long periods of time, because practice shows that Bitcoin market tends to always drop when the upward momentum gets lost, and I just don't see how this would change in the near future. You would need a continuous streak of positive news to fuel such cycle, a new large company or a country buying Bitcoin every week - this is not going to happen.

I think we’ll still see the usual significant price rise post halving for another 1 or 2 cycles (assuming this cycle & high at 69k is over).
Once each block rewards miners with less than 1BTC we might start to see a reduction in the effect that the diminishing supply has on bitcoin. I think another 8+ years before this happens. The halving in 2024 will still create a supply shock & bull run in 2025.

What exactly is a supercycle though?

Is it that the market constantly rises? or is it that there wont be a notable
prolonged Bear market?

Its really hard to call whether we will stay in this halving cycle or whether we
are in a supercycle, maybe if we were hovering around the ₱100,000k now I
would be leaning towards a supercycle ... but we are not near the $100,000
mark yet...

I'm leaning toward the former in my understanding, a supercycle of bullish run, and somewhat just months of bearish and then the price will continue to go on again.


The market is still like 10 years old, data is very young and we can't extrapolate anything from it.

We just rely on the last halving and it's subsequent bull run in 2017. Sure it might have been repeating itself every 4 years, But we can't still say and we can't predict how this run will go next year.

If the demand continues to go up and there's a lot of people buying or wanting to buy bitcoin then there's a possibility that we might see a supercycle happening but I don't think that we might see that honestly because the market can't just continue going up as it's bad for itself and for potential investors.

The good thing about it is when the price reached a new ATH and begins to decrease after that, it won't back to the time when the price was before the halving. Right now the price has never been down to under $20,000 which is good since when the market keeps holding on whenever the price is decreasing. Because investors are following the tradition when the price of BTC is experiencing a bearish market, only a matter of days for it to recover and regain its price back. so when they see people invest again in the deep, others will follow, and there you go, successfully recovered the price again.

OP, a SUPER CYCLE. Open a weekly chart, use Bitstamp, it has the longest historical record of Bitcoin. Choose 200 Simple Moving Average as an indicator. If Bitcoin crashes under that indicator and never returns after a significant amount of time, then the current super cycle is broken.

The supercycle theory as formulated by Dan Held is not going to hold true, at least not this year. We should be clearly higher in price. This is not to say that the theory does not have a certain logic (as they all do) and that it may happen in the future.

As for where we are, we are in uncharted territory. No one quite knows what is going to happen to the price in 2022, what is clear is that the bitcoin price is behaving differently than previous cycles.

I want to say halving cycle since it's hard to set expectations year after year and imo it's better to have that slow and stable growth rather than going back to what we've experienced a few years back.

On the other hand, I think a supercycle is inevitable since we're still within arms reach of another new high and we've seen how fast bitcoin recovered back then so it's only a matter of time until we see another price increase.

Ah so the first quarter of 2022 is really the key to whether this supercycle manifests
itself IMO




Yea I suppose thats what is happening, we are comparing/expecting this year
to be like previous halvings.

It was also in Dec 2018 where the bear market started which took so long that they call it "long winter market" that's extended to a year of a bear market. And now winter is coming once again which if this is just a halving cycle only, the price by Jan 2022 will also start crumbling.  To be optimistic in a way, because miners only get about 6.25 every block. It's going to create a very low supply for all that demands BTC too.

I want to create a new thread for this question as well but let me just insert it here in case someone will be willing to give thier views about it.
If next year the bear market starts, will it be the same as the last that was extended up to a year?

Can you show a chart showing a super cycle by Dan Held? Because a super cycle should be the bull cycle of Bitcoin from the very beginning like this chart, https://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/

“At least not this year” is a wrong phrase in talking about the super cycle. It’s either still happenning, or not anymore.


Bull or bear, Bitcoin is in a super cycle. Don’t believe me? Zoom out.

I suspect neither is quite right.  See this thread which I started in the Speculation sub-forum on comparing the halvings: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0

Because the vast majority of coins have already been mined (88% mined at the point of the 2020 halving) and only a tiny proportion will be mined in each epoch (~7% in the current epoch) the impact of each halving will become progressively smaller and take longer to play out - a bit like a wave decaying over time … the wave continues for a looong time but the peaks and troughs flatten out and move further apart.

Zooming out is where we can see that it's not still at the bottom unlike in June last year when indicators are signaling we have reached the bottom. The dip today looks like it's not yet which some speculators are actually saying the price could be up by June this year as well or it may extend to a year like in 2018 bear market. Is the bear cycle also repeating?

I hope to see them wrong because I don't wanna send my coins from the cold wallet to the exchange anymore.  

Due to the large scale adoption in the global market this discussion about supercycle/halving cycle have existed. As in the OP, after every halving the market used to turn bullish. At times the market change happens a little delayed or soon after the halving. A market without bearish move is something like a manipulated one. As of now everything is on good phase, so we can expect the market to be stable for some time and turn bearish before making a big jump for the upcoming halving.

A halving cycle is obviously expected but we can anticipate for a better bull run compared to the previous year. But for a market to remain valid it must have it's high demand season and it's high supply season which regulates the movement bod price above the previous highs or below it's previous lows or better still revolving around a certain price range. But definitely we can't expect a super cycle

We will gonna find that out soon. If we're going to have bloody months then that would confirm the bear market is in but as long as we're staying above $40k then nothing special about the bear market.

People are exaggerating the corrections as it seems really disappointing and thinking that it's already the hellish bear market that we don't like to see. But just as the 2018 bear market, it would be seen likely from 2nd-4th quarter.

halving 2012- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $1.2k)
halving 2016- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $20k)
halving 2020- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $69k)

we have passed the super cycle and now in the slow volatile zone.

that said looking at the multiplier per cycle. we should see a 7-8x factor of the $20k ATH during the 2020-2024 halving periods

That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.

continued adoption will indeed greatly affect bitcoin, let alone more and more bitcoin users. many are turning their investments to bitcoin. this further adds to the volume of the bitcoin marketcap. The same cycle might happen again but with a bigger wave, the ATH $100k is still unreached and that price will certainly determine where bitcoin will go. bear markets always occur and then followed by a tremendous bull market.

I am afraid that only time could answer for this. Because, no technical analysis will be versatile enough to predict accurately about what is going to happen in near future of bitcoin market. There are equal possibilities for both bearish and bull market to happen here after even I agree with you that awareness on bitcoin is high these days which means mass adoption is happening everywhere still we cannot predict anything against whale's manipulations.

So, instead of having any kind of assumption about the upcoming trend, I guess it would be always better to act according to the market situations so that you will not lose but you will get chances to make use of market trend.

But that very soon might happen after the next schedule halving?

For me it will be difficult to reach another all time high again, unless this super cycle come into fruition. But what we can see now is a bear market, not full blown, but I will say that we are in the way already. It's good that we will see some bounce throughout every quarter.

But it could be a slow and hard grind and we might see fluctuation every month that's why it's going to be hard for another all time high.

It will happen before or after the next halving because bitcoin has now become popular and many people have started adopting bitcoin and using bitcoin as their new investment.
It will have a massive buying from people, especially those who see the benefits of bitcoin to them so they will start buying at a low price.
But I agree with @TravelMug that we are not easy to see another all time high as the gap of the price now is at $25k and it is not easy to pump the price back on the last ATH.
Bitcoin will reach $100k in the future, and we can wait for that while we can follow the bitcoin journey, up and down of the price and enjoy it.

Not so long ago price was stuck in $3k range and people were saying the ATH ($20k at the time) is not easy to reach since it is far away. Price went out of that range and without "pumping" reached $20k and surpassed it to reach $70k ATH. Now the same story is being repeated but at a 10x size.
The thing is just because there is a pause in the rally it doesn't mean it is any harder to reach a new ATH than before.

Even I agree with you on not a full fledged bearish market, I do not think that it would be too difficult for a market like bitcoin to have another ATH from here. Because, we have seen quick bounce back many times and that way bitcoin may get into bullish and then may test a new ATH at any time.

Bitcoin is strongly being held around $40k levels for more than 2 weeks of time and we have seen market is turning up from that support level which must be enough witness about the strength of market to stay above $40k levels; this will definitely launch upward which must be toward $100k in near future.

That's what it is always wherein a common cycle every year. Indeed it keeps improving amd getting matured because of adoption as well that keep increasing.. No one can stop it as long as there's still a lot of people keep believing how bitcoin very optimistic and legitimate..it's unstoppable despite of the situation. And everyone knows about it since the beginning..

But Bitcoin always did go to a new ATH as a path to price discovery after each halving cycle. Probably because of the halving itself, and probably because of a few other circumstances, like BRRR-money printing and other inflationary policies by the Federal Reserve/Central Banks.

And the same that we said before, after a new ATH at $20k, bitcoin will not go down below 5 digits, or at least $10k, but look at what happen in 2018 and during the bear market.

So it's a tit-for-tat market, or it is very unpredictable and we just go with the flow.

If we are in a bear market, then obviously the price will go down very hard. But if we are in the opposite side, then we might see 6 digits in the future.

I do agree that whenever halving happens the price goes up after a while, however this time around that fed printing money situation impacted it a lot. It was the pandemic period and every single nation has a big inflation problem. Inflation means the prices of everything goes up, and the value of fiat goes down, when the value of fiat goes down, the value of bitcoin and other crypto goes up.

This is a simple situation where bitcoin did go up last year, but at the same time the purchasing power of it didn't really changed all that much. Looking at it right now, the start of 2022 was around 40k, and start of 2021 was around 30k, that is about 30% or so increase, with "official" numbers at 7% and probably a lot higher in reality, and A LOT higher in most nations, I can easily say that it is probably like 10% to 15% increase in reality and not 30%, that is what inflation means.

There is no reason to associate all-time highs with halvings. Bitcoin has repeatedly gone to new highs regardless of the halvings. The idea that the halving causes an all-time high is a self-perpetuating myth based on confirmation bias.

• The times between halvings and all-time highs have typically been very long. Only the 2012 halving was followed soon after by an all-time high.
• There is no correlation between halvings and all-time highs. There were two all-time highs between the 2012 and 2016 halvings, and two all-time highs since the 2020 halving.
• The 2011 all-time high occurred before the 2012 halving.

I think that there will still be a great correction due to the end of the halving cycle.

But at the same time, I think that it is quite futile to try to time the markets by buying in exactly at the market bottom - you are simply not going to be able to do that, and the long term trajectory is clearly that we are in a crypto supercycle that will continue to be bullish for the next 5-10 years.

So don't take on leverage, keep stacking, and you will be fine regardless of where the price goes.

I believe that’s true, but doesn’t the halvings reduce currency issuance, ans therefore also reduce selling pressure from the issuers, in Bitcoin, the miners?

I’m not questioning, or debating you, or saying you’re wrong, merely trying to learn.

The change is tiny. 500,000 bitcoins are traded on exchanges each day and the last halving resulted in only 900 fewer bitcoins.

Once bitcoins enter the supply, they remain in the supply. The constant increase causes a downward pressure on the price as the supply curve slides to the right. The halving only reduces that downward pressure on price and it can't explain a 10x increase in price.

Yeah I have been thinking more and more that the cycle as we know it could very well be over. A few firsts have already happened... First time the rally lasted longer than a year (by my calculations anyway) if we see now as still a yet to subside rally. First time we saw barely 3x gain of ATH to ATH.

A big move down and a failure this year to continue gains would confirm another cycle I would say.

I can wait =)

Unfortunately it is not really that small. The difference between the traded ones and the mined ones is that when you trade there is a buyer and there is a seller, when you buy it is created out of nothing and you just sell it. So while all those thousands of bitcoins traded looks much bigger, this 900 bitcoins were created out of nothing and nearly 40 million dollars worth of bitcoin is sold every single day.

I do not mean that miners sell all they mine, sometimes they store it, but it is still coming out of zero input to the market, sure they spend energy and pollute and all that but that doesn't matter to the market. Which is why we start with negative 40 million dollars each year, and that is a very important aspect of miners creating new bitcoins.

There is no difference. When a miner sells bitcoins, they sell to a buyer. There is no way for the market to distinguish between a miner selling bitcoins and a holder selling bitcoins. They are the same in every way.

Ultimately, I think the best metric is the inflow of bitcoins to exchanges. You would expect inflows to plummet by up to 50% after a halving. However, if you look at this graph, you will see that the last two halvings had no apparent effect on the inflow of bitcoins to exchanges. Inflows actually rose after halvings.

https://blog.vectorcrypto.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Inflow-1.png

I'll believe more in the halving cycle, based on history. We all know how the Bitcoin block halving became significant to Bitcoin since the beginning, it is showing how Bitcoin managed to do some price actions that correlate with when it is upcoming or after bitcoin block halving.

About the supercycle, for you how you can explain it? Does supercycle have some specific numbers or how can you tell a cycle that is a supercycle?

But does KNOWING that the halvings every four years “reduce that downwards pressure on the price”, explain that it makes investors more positive about buying Bitcoin after every halving. Because the price, as seen in the chart, gives this impression.

I do not think that it would be that weird to believe something like this. I mean 4 year cycle happened twice right now, and a third one is expected by the people as well. However, just because it has happened before doesn't mean that it will happen again, nothing is guaranteed in the crypto world and that is why it is not really that shocking to see these type of results.

I personally believe that it will not happen, the cycle seems great, halving seems to be a great reason for bitcoin to go up, but just because it happened once doesn't mean that it will happen exactly the same way it will in the future. Just to give an example, if halving was a guaranteed way of making money, everyone would buy bitcoin before the halving and that would make the price go up before halving and not afterwards since everyone would be buying. That alone is the proof that nobody believes this halving story, even if it happened before.

People know the effect of the halving long before the halving actually occurs. If that is the cause then you would see the effect before the halving. Interestingly, Litecoin does show this effect. In both Litecoin halvings, the price rose sharply until just prior to the halving. Then, the bubble popped and the price fell sharply, and it continued to fall after the halving.

I believe that the actual causes of the Bitcoin bubbles are similar, but more general. News about the halvings or other events generates interest and promotes speculation, which which feeds on itself and slowly evolves into a bubble.

Finally, if we attribute the bubbles to what people believe about the supply and not the supply itself, then the bubbles have little to do with money supply and everything to do with demand.

Personally I think we are in a supercycle, now maybe I am too optimistic however when I see how the economy is performing and the low growth of it despite the huge amount of money that has been created I cannot help to think that there is still a huge potential for bitcoin to grow, after all how much time will investors wait until they finally realize the economy is not going to do as well as their projections indicate? And once they realize this simple truth then bitcoin will be an obvious alternative where they can invest their money.

Bitcoin's historical logs is fairly young, we can't say if we are in the super cyle or a new cycle or old cycle so it's hard to say.

The only thing we know is that after a halving, the price seems to reach all time high and after that we goes into a correction which turns into a bearish market. And so far this seems to be what we are seeing right now, from $69k, - a new all time high to barely $40k, so that's huge correction already.

No one has the exact answer to this question, all that can be said is just predictions, a lot of optimistic predictions were said about a great rise in the market and a new peak for Bitcoin but nothing happened so far, 2021 was a good year for the market in general but December did not Well, there was an unexpected dump that caused bitcoin and the market to drop dramatically and shuffle all the cards, we were expected to see a bullish cycle for the market at the beginning of 2022 but now I expect it to be delayed to the second quarter at a minimum.

Yeah, this is the reason speculators here are not expecting another bloodbath but sustaining market conditions which will get us this cycle to be an unique one. But, profit booking will definitely happen but having profit booking after 10x or 20x growth and up to 50% correction may not be a concern. Hence usual halving cycle will persist even we are having differently long duration based super cycle this time.

As of now, market is still into sideways movement; it will slowly get into supercycle but if it keeps correcting from the current price levels then we can say it would be normal halving cycle but without a 10x growth.

I debated about that during 2020, whether the halving was priced in, or not. I said the same thing as you, but I was proven wrong  by the market. It’s the same as years 2012, and 2016. The price surged after the halving, showing everyone that it was not truly priced in.


It’s probably no one really values Litecoin?


But the supply itself does reduce after a halving.

I believe that speculators are trying to convince people opposite of what they actually believe. If you could convince everyone to sell and you buy afterwards, that is a good deal, if you make everyone believe it will go up and make them buy then you can sell at the top.

Speculators do not want to be right, they want to be wrong, because if they are "wrong" on their statement then they can go against what they said and make a lot of money. Otherwise we could all buy and say it will go up and if we all buy then it will really go up, that is how the market works and then we would all be making a good amount of money. That is not what they really want, that is a bit difficult to navigate.

As I have already documented, the price surged after a halving only in 2012 (and then again a year later). Other surges were not until at least a year after a halving. Also, people ignore that the 2011 price surge was before the 2012 halving. Furthermore, the price had risen significantly before each halving. How is that not evidence that the halving was "priced in"? The surges later do not disprove it.


That is not true of course, but it shouldn't matter either way. I think that it shows that speculation is much more of a factor in Litecoin because the effect was so strong.


Not true. The supply is always increasing toward 21 million before, during, and after a halving. Inflows to exchanges increased after the last two halvings. Supply is not reduced by a halving no matter how you measure it.

I meant issuance is reduced by half after every halving, and therefore also reducing selling-pressure.

Plus if we check the chart in weekly, actually buyers were starting to buy again during January of 2015 for the 2016 halving and January of 2019 for the 2020 halving. It’s probably in anticipation of everyone’s expectation of the halving, therefore increasing demand. Miners are also speculators, they probably loaned fiat to have the cashflow to pay for their bills now, and sell their coins later.

I included the exchange inflows chart above to dispel that belief.

You belief that the halving reduces the number of bitcoins sent to exchanges and thereby reduces "selling-pressure". However, the chart shows exactly the opposite -- the number of bitcoins sent to exchanges increases after a halving (in two instances).

OK, then there’s greater demand, which makes the price surge, in spite of the increased selling-pressure after a halving. My next question is, then what’s your opinion on Plan B’s Stock To Flow Model? Is it then naive to assume that Bitcoin will simply increase in price because of the halvings?

That is certainly my opinion - it is much too simplistic an argument.

We are still in the halving cycle but so far each cycle has lengthened with diminishing returns, so according to this theory is would be possible to see a new high perhaps by the end of the year.  I think no one would expect it since everyone just assumes now the cycle is over and we will have 3 years of a brutal bear market with no happiness.

First, two exponential functions can be graphed to look as if they are correlated simply by adjusting the scales.

Second, price is determined by supply and demand, but Plan B's stock-to-flow model completely ignores demand. Without demand, you cannot predict prices.

The model cannot be accurate, except by luck or after-the-fact adjustments.

Finally, it looks like the predictions made by his S2F model are wrong. According to the model, the price should be exceeding $100k, but it is falling below $40k instead.

I get stock-to-flow. It is basically a way of characterizing changes in supply. It is not sufficient for predicting prices.

And there will be plenty like me (I think/hope) who will already now be switching down gears and trying to buy more than sell. I earn rather than buy but I always try to touch less and less BTC and just invoice more in stablecoin during bearish periods --  in effect adding to my BTC and liquidating stablecoins.

Because you're right. People won't forget the next halving's coming, regardless of how the market turns out next few months.