OK, then there’s greater demand, which makes the price surge, in spite of the increased selling-pressure after a halving. My next question is, then what’s your opinion on Plan B’s Stock To Flow Model? Is it then naive to assume that Bitcoin will simply increase in price because of the halvings?
First, two exponential functions can be graphed to look as if they are correlated simply by adjusting the scales.
Second, price is determined by supply and demand, but Plan B's stock-to-flow model completely ignores demand. Without demand, you cannot predict prices.
The model cannot be accurate, except by luck or after-the-fact adjustments.
Finally, it looks like the predictions made by his S2F model are wrong. According to the model, the price should be exceeding $100k, but it is falling below $40k instead.
I get stock-to-flow. It is basically a way of characterizing changes in supply. It is not sufficient for predicting prices.