Bitcoin Forum

Ok, as of late I've been drawing some lines (as practice, mostly), and now I'm more confused than ever. Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish, but the lines I drew show it to be on an upwards trend. I'm attaching a screenshot of what I see. The graph is from Binance.

So the magic question would be: what am I missing? ???

https://i.imgur.com/qOSmgQkl.png

What you're missing is basically all those who are not that vocal.
Although WO is basically bullish, hence it may not be the best example, I'll suggest you read 2 posts: this (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58900291#msg58900291) and this one (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58902034#msg58902034). And I'm sure many others think like this. Clearly not a financial advice, but a good example to do as you think in trading and investing.

My post is not about trading but about hodling. People do not have to worry, they do not have to sell at loss, but I will encourage everyone to invest more if the price go downtrend. Bitcoin price will later have to increase. What I am thinking now with the news (https://cointelegraph.com/news/wait-and-see-approach-3-4-of-bitcoin-supply-now-illiquid) I read today made me think it will be hard for bitcoin to dip below $40000. I may not be accurate but I will be accurate about coming all-time-high. It can take time, but it will surely be one day in reality.

Wanna go check what was said in December 2017 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.375120)? It is obvious enough that you can't predict what will happen. What's the mathematical relationship that tells you it'd reach $70,000, I can't comprehend.

The thing I never understood is technical analysis. The question that I haven't yet got an answer is how to increase your chances of being right from a completely free market where everything happens unpredictably. I can speculate it'll worth more in the future, but up to there.

On that note, investing (AKA HODLing) is a hundred times better than trading. With investing you can do something essential, constructive, useful alongside. You don't have to give your sweat looking at charts for hours...

Hmm, you just have to look at what the S2F model is pointing at the beginning. And now we understand that TA is really very difficult as it might pointing to be bullish in your graph, on the contrary it may go down the opposite. So maybe you are missing that are not seems to be obvious at this point because it is not happening yet, just saying.

You missed the fact that not everything can be seen on the graph.

There are many more factors that could affect the price movement that you cannot see on the graph alone. People are saying that bitcoin is now bearish because they are based on the previous trend where after a bull run a bear market will dominate and it looks like we are in the same scenario now.

What you believe now is always up to you, besides, it doesn't guarantee anything so we just have to follow what we think would happen based on our personal analysis, not on the so-called "experts" in the space.

I see...
So basically  what I read is that some people will start screaming "bear" and run for the hills the moment a given asset loses a penny, and most will stop for a second and open a thread here before starting to run. Makes sense.
I'm still a long way from truly understanding technical analysis (I'm trying though). I understand the whole "volatility" concept, and the risk involved. Good to know I'm not completely off...

Thank you all for the prompt replies.   :)

because from the beginning, especially in December, I didn't really understand why they were called bearish even though it was only a temporary correction.
On the other hand, it may be assumed that people have different perspectives and are not seen from other perspectives because the research conducted mainly for traders is more in the direction of the short term, not the longer term.
basically people who say bearish will only make them panic themselves :D

Because if you draw a line since 2011 even if the price reaches 10 cents you're going to see an upwards trend.
Randomly picking a date and drawing a line from here means nothing, sentiment can change from morning to afternoon and again during the night, poeple are calling it a "bearish" season simply because the current trend is not matching bullish expectations of 100k by Christmas.

But that doesn't mean anything, bitcoin could go up as I type by 5k, trends are there only to be broken, bullish or bearish.


Just how a crystal ball can be accurate if the right show from the TV reflects in it when the spell is being cast.
Or, in other words, the prices don't give a damn what some lines are drawn on a chart say.  :D
If TA would be at least 70% accurate everyone would be so rich already not to care about trading anymore.
 

Bearish for the timeframe used by others will be different from the timeframe used by the holder. As a holder in their eyes, there is no bearish at all, because what they target is always profitable, but for day traders there is always time to see a bearish line.

So it all goes back to the method that is adjusted by each. Personally it's nothing dangerous bearish, while we see a bit of a gap to enter then buys will be set and waiting for a comeback for a long time.

No one can say that, and only with TA also you can't come into any conclusion because there are lot of other factors also affecting the prices of cryptos. We already entered into 2022 and if you take a look at the history of 2017 and 18 there were similar patterns so commonly people get the impression of prices is about the fall so they all might started selling once their panic region started touching,

You are not missing anything for now but what you will miss is your bitcoin when you sell because of fud or fear and the next moment price is on another ATH scaling higher.

You are not sure where price will go likewise the other speculators but it is better to trend on the part of reasoning, bitcoin is getting into adoption and institutions are accepting it as payment . So what do you think ? ;D

Maybe as good traders we don't have to race on the candle, because it doesn't guarantee its accuracy, although many say it's 70% 80% accurate but it's just an opinion so that traders can glance at it, even world-renowned experts are also not always right if it's based on the chart like that,
I think in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 the price of BTC will be affected by the announcement of THE FED which will be tapering to every country related to it in 2022. Why do I say that?
The reason is that most of the biggest shareholders in BTC are state agencies around the world which of course they will sell some of their assets for payment to the USA.

I agree with most of my colleagues who have responded: the TA sucks. Some very experienced and knowledgeable people claim to make money trading with it but those who lose money are more than 90%, so it is not very reliable.

On the other hand, you have drawn some lines because you see a pattern, what you do not see is that you could draw infinite lines, which, logically some would seem much more reasonable than others, but all pointing to regularities.

Better to invest than to play roulette and let's leave TA aside.

Well, you just happen to have a different timeframe against the others who pointed out a bearish signs on their own chart.
However, a chart cannot also be accurate on what's about to tell us whether a bullish or a bearish sign. Prices always change every second.
It could suddenly fall during a massive sell off and then stay in a specific bearish region.

You are not missing anything, charts are up to interpretation and as such two different people are going to see different things on the same chart.

Think of charts on the same way you think of a medical analysis, if you get your blood tested a bunch of data will appear, and while an inexperienced doctor may make a mistaken diagnosis an expert doctor will look at the same data and come to the right conclusion, so if according to your analysis you do not think bitcoin is bearish and you have confidence in your skills then there is a decent chance you are right.

You are missing one very important fact: Technical analysis is fortune telling. It don't mean shit.

You want to believe that support line is going to hold but it very well may not. So that chart you posted is completely meaningless.

Everybody don't keep talking about bear-btc. You are somehow only hearing their voice. There are plenty of bulls around too.

Hey
I have never tried doing such predictions because there are many sites online as well who does this stuff and people tend to follow them, but at the end of the day, I do not trust those sites altogether because they can only *predict*. But if I was you, I would change the *time frame* then analyze the market.
Plus being bearish or bullish does depend upon the fact that, what you are taking as your base price. For the time being I think it's hard to predict where the market is headed and you can completely choose to ignore the advice or predictions by the people here.
*It's not dependent upon a mathematical calculation, it would not follow your line for sure that's all I can tell you right now.*
((Forget about the lines, follow the news, keep a track of the price))

This is only a matter of the timeframe used, because it is not possible for long-term holders to use a 15-minute or one-hour timeframe but at least weekly or even more than that, unlike people who trade daily. they do checks and analyzes in close TF so it is very reasonable if the price decline occurs to say it is bearish.
on the other hand I'm more comfortable saying it as a correction than bearish

The price correction is currently happening with bitcoin dropping more than $2,000 today and now priced at $45,870. This has been happening since the beginning of the week against some speculation for bull this time. It is still looking bearish on a higher time and I think it causing some hodlers panic.

What you're missing is that bitcoin has always been unpredictable. Despite a lot of good TAs that I've read last year even up to this point. No one has expected that it will be down by $43k-$44k in a bit.

And last year, we're all into $100k and s2f model although it seems to be following the path but at the end of year, it had changed and didn't follow it.

That's why even with good and most accurate TAs bitcoin can do the unexpected and is always full of surprises.

Perhaps, we always notice full of surprise that even we have this chart, we have this basis of our speculation, TA but too unfortunate that our TA can't be right at all.

I'm sure that people are getting wise now, they are more on holding than selling. Quite that is a huge factor that affects the market trend and even keeps it bullish in the whole year 2021. That is something we need to look forward to this year, I'm still in the positivity that we are even more bullish this year and the momentum continues.

You're not the only one who's confused about what the Bitcoin market's next momentum will be but according to the previous market historical data which I believe was what those that predicted the market to be bearishly used.
After the Bitcoin halving effect market is over the market will experience a huge correction.

The best thing you can do is to ride with the market because the chart cant provide 100% results and the crypto market is going to the verge where charts, etc will be useless cause the market will choose a trend that there's nothing to prove it.

Well, the point is that however way you look at those charts, whatever pattern you will create, however way you put those lines on, the price right now is falling down. So, is Bitcoin really bearish? Well, November saw Bitcoin hitting almost $69,000. We are still in the first week of January and the price is just a little more than $43,000. That must be bearish. That's never bullish. But that's the short term. Zoom it out and the chart suggests otherwise. So, we are currently in a bear phase right now. That's obvious. But there's no problem with it because the future is promising. And what do we do when the price is cheap?

I agree with all of your explanations, it's very clear with the price of Bitcoin dropping below $45k now this is a sign of a bearish trend. But there's
really no need to worry about this Bitcoin price drop, I've often seen Bitcoin prices go down. And in the end Bitcoin can always recover, even rising
very high after experiencing a bearish trend. We just need to be patient to see the current market conditions, if we still have the capital we can buy
Bitcoin again at the current price. Because I think Bitcoin is currently at a low price, hopefully Bitcoin doesn't drop below $40k, otherwise there
will be a panic sell.

Well for some people who didn't experience the past heavy bear market season they will possibly get afraid on this current market condition but for those experience people who already see that maybe they are still in cool but one thing is for sure there many will slowly get panic for seeing the situation especially when bitcoin keeps declining and for sure doubts will spread more especially once bitcoin touch at $30k+ again so hopefully we can see some good recovery since this will calm the majority of people who's still have holding which they keep or bought at the top.

TAs are sometimes right and sometimes wrong. It's always like that and that settles the attitude of bitcoin for being unpredictable no matter what's the basis of the TA is.

The selling pressure is high and you're right that when the market is like this, diamond hands we have and we only need to hold. And at the same time, those who have waited for the drop, they're now free to buy just like what they've wished for.

Black friday and the christmas holiday season can be a high point for retail bitcoin transactions. Followed by a lull in transaction volume in january.

I think historically january is the best time of the year to make short plays on bitcoin, off decreasing demand from the holiday season.

It can also serve as an entry point for setting up a good buy in position for the next bitcoin halving. Pushing the value down now can translate to larger profits when the next reward halving hits.

It can be hard to get a read on whether an asset is bullish or bearish. There are undoubtedly many conflicting ideas traders have about what the next stop should be.

I've always been a proponent of bitcoin being defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles. There was a big bust cycle following the last rewards halving. And the one prior. A bearish period could be normal at this stage.

Seems to me bearish to be honest. Don't know how long it will last, today’s price dump somehow indicates the bear mode. I am expecting $40K would be the support zone, in case if Bitcoin break this zone then we will be on the real bear at all. Otherwise, it would be a correction point if Bitcoin starts up from that support zone. Let's think positively, most probably whales accumulating Bitcoin and definitely they will pump it today or tomorrow. And we might see some tweets from institutional investors about buying Bitcoin. So hopefully Bitcoin will start recovering.

Yes. It is really bearish and the primary reason behind that seems to be Omicron based on my research which surprised me since the previous variants actually helped BTC and other cryptocurrencies grow drastically over time.

Historically, the crypto market usually is bullish at this time of the year, but this extremely volatile market doesn't always follow historical patterns.

What do you think you are missing? If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck - it's usually a duck. What you seem to be wanting is someone to reassure you that the evidence unfolding before you is a lie and you would be foolish to listen to such a person. Over the short term Bitcoin has been trending downwards from it's all time high, there is at least one major investment bank (not that they're particularly good analysts) who say that the current proper price for Bitcoin right now is in the $30-$35k range so there may even be further for it to fall. It may very well bounce upwards at any time, but energy usage concerns are currently turning the mood sour against crypto which might be a hard problem to fix.

When the bearish come, you need to inverse good amount of coin. Holding is essential one to get good amount of profit.Patience is needed one among the people. But they failed to use the key tool of holding and bother about the loss.But the inbuilt fact is loss is temporary and profit is permanent.

History may sometimes becomes relevant or not, but this time the crypto prices mostly depend on its market news and sentiments. So its always expected if most of the current events are negative, then the value of the coins will certainly fall, and not because we are already in a bearish market.  But seems the market looks like bearish anyway, then we should at least prepare for it because its where the market is really heading once negative news will always hit the market. Bitcoin is currently facing a hard time, but it will definitely recover in time.

now it's even up to $42k :D
This could make a lot of people even more panicked about this. The correction in the last few weeks is quite interesting because this decline was reported as a result of the opening of 100,000 BTC MtGox some time ago which was indeed indicated to be one of the reasons why bitcoin experienced a decline, besides that now in kazakh is also experiencing a forced power outage and all of us know that kazakh is one of the countries that generate the biggest hashrate for mining

Market indeed became bearish and for reaching this deep this already higher up the fear level of the people and many still got afraid on the current condition since we know how deep bitcoin go so far from the past but we shouldn't get afraid of this if we are still in profit nor accumulated a profit before since we can buy it again once bitcoin drop badly.

Times like this on where people starts to rattle out and panic which is a really very common behavior.People should have anticipate for these things to happen because its always been a market part of having

these kind of pullbacks or corrections on which this is rather a good time on considering on buying up cheaper coins instead of freaking out when seeing reds.
Bearish or bullish, people do always have something to say which a very common mindset to have which it isn't surprising.

Nobody knows what will happen. I was around in 2018 and whenever it dipped, people were saying they bought the bottom and we’re going to sell at a new ATH. Then it dipped again and again and again and then people assumed $6K must be rock solid support until it wasn’t.

Then people assumed $4.5K was the low, until it wasn’t and then it went to like $3.5K and did nothing for many weeks. Many sold out of boredom and it was the low.

So who knows if 2022 will be a repeat.

this is the positive side, when we can think clearly, this is actually a blessing because a deep correction of btc will make alt go down too and this is a good opportunity to make a move so that we can add the assets we want.
but indeed things like this are very difficult to happen when the price is dropping significantly all you think about is an asset that has decreased and that's what you think about even though it's not very useful when you just think about it without any real action

Whether the market is bearish or bullish, if your target is still for the long term, you should not worry and will buy more amounts in the bearish trends. If your chart says this moment is still bullish but the market shows the red candle, then you should search for more information besides that chart. Maybe you should change the timeline and indicators or find more info about the market conditions. I suggest you still hold your bitcoin and buy more bitcoin to prepare for the other bullish trends.

The market seems to be bearish but we can't really tell how it will go. BTC always bounces back when we least expect it to do so. Most people are going to be caught off guard in the next massive bull run. I hope people are not going to sell off in panic and buy at a higher price.

Hard to say right now, there are many voices that claim we are already in the next bear market. I don't buy into this new downward trend. It seems more like a correction in the general upwards trend of Bitcoins. Like in your picture I think that prices are still high and bitcoins should be rising again in the near future. There is however a risk that too many people buy into the bearish news and a real panic selling can occur. A big crash is always a downward spiral that can force people even if they still believe in the project. We humans are herd animals that like to follow each other. Seeing many people run for the door can tricker a panic by itself. That's why best to resist and hope bitcoins will bounce back stronger than ever soon.

No matter how the market looks like, even it was bearish, people definitely think and say it was just a price correction. Well, it is not wrong but we sometimes think also that not all the time were in bullish, and can be these declines is might be a sign for another bearish season.
I can't make people think the same as me and I was sure that many will disagree with me but there is one thing I would like to say, we better prepare for the incoming. We can never be confident that all the time we are in bullish, not even just to ask for it always...as the market remains volatile, we, therefore, to see those things upwards and downward motions.

I think current Bitcoin price has more to do with inflation and the pandemic than traditional economics.  You cant really graph or predict anything in a linear fashion with so many uncertainties going on at the same time.

Exactly, with the things going on right now, there are so many factors to consider.
The traditional economics I believe is also not applicable in these challenging times.
We can still use the concept but the situation is largely influence by the pandemic factor.
We are not living in the normal years here or should we say, it is the new normal even in the economic point of view?
BTC for me is still performing good, we are still above 40k.
Remember at the start of pandemic (Jan 2020), the value of btc was only about $7-9k. Just look at the difference.

People will keep on calling it the bottom for now as well, and even if it falls there is nothing wrong with that. Imagine all those people who said 6k was the bottom, if they kept their money they would have made 10x in just 3 years in 2021, how many investments are out there in the world that gives you 10x return in 3 years?

If they are getting bored from waiting just 3 years, then they should not be investing in the first place. Investing is not a daily thing, trading definitely is so if they are traders they shouldn't have kept their coins for so long and traded daily and shouldn't be losing all that much money. However, if they are investors then they should be not getting "bored of waiting" for 3 years 10x return, even more, like 11x or so.

This is why I keep saying that holding is the easiest and hardest thing ever. You literally do nothing at all, and some people can't do it for some reason, they keep selling and buying when all they have to do is literally nothing.

What do you buy with BTC when USD is worthless? 

For those traditional investments then no one could give out those kind of returns which it is why they would really be regretting later on on what they do had missed.

Speaking of bearish moments then its inevitable but its really hard to determine if its the bottom thats why whenever we do see some dumping then we do freak out and this would be mind boggling

whether you do buy in or wait further for you to maximize possible buy entry which this thing makes it more harder.

Well, 3 years is very long particularly for those investors who are eager to make profits. Because if they can make possible profits in the earliest time, i know they will do it but the problem is most of the investors aren't good traders at all. They tend to hold but when a small opportunity knocks, they eventually sell their coins. But if we can make consistent profits in trading even if the amount is only small, but once they are added, they will make up huge profits like what most of the long term holders wish to have.

If you talk about pandemic, I think that whatever effect that the pandemic might have had on the cryptocurrency market is currently over right now. It only affected the market when it started, that was in 2020, but that didn’t really take long before the downtrend was over and the market started to recover again. So, I wouldn’t say that this is something that has to do with pandemic, and moreover a lot of things are already back to normal, and pandemic is no longer preventing or stopping any activities at all from taking place. That’s all I would have to say for now.

BTC/USDT in one week? Well, in the market you don’t really need to do according to what people are saying. Yes you can get advice from people, but it’s good to do your own research and make your decision. If you keep following what people has to say all the time without verifying if it’s accurate or not, you’re likely going to end up with some problem due to wrong information.

But right now, if you ask me I would say that the Bitcoin market is bearish, and the bearish trend is not yet over, and I don’t even think this is something that would be over anytime soon. With that said, I would as well add that now is the right time to start planning for your investment, you don’t have to wait till the market becomes bullish before you start investing. If your plan is to Hodl, you should invest when the market low and hold through out.

Eh....whatever.  Bitcoin dropped a significant amount in the last what, day and a half?  We weren't in a bear market two days ago, and this correction that happened may or may not mean anything about where the bitcoin market is headed.

It could be that some people got tired of waiting for the price to skyrocket and decided to cash out now (or it could have been a whale or two).  It could be anything, really.  The drop from $50k to $41.2k in such a short time frame kind of has me puzzled.  There hasn't been any bad news that I know of that would cause a panic, and there's not much else that influences bitcoin besides factors that drive demand.  Guess it'll have to remain a mystery.

Bear markets don't always start with a massive dip like this, either.  The only way we're going to know what kind of market we're really in is to wait a few months at least to see if bitcoin recovers or continues to slide.  I have my fingers crossed.

I really doubt that because the market is in extreme fear for the last one months and it is moving sideways for almost a year. The on-chain data shows that 1.3 million BTC has been out of circulation that means long-term holders are accumulating BTC. 76% of BTC from circulation has been moved to storage which means to those wallets that don't have any history of spending BTC. So with that remaining 24% supply, there could not be a major sell-off. We could see a small correction to eliminate paper hands so that whales can buy more but no major correction is expected.

Actually, I am expecting a mega rally for BTC very soon.

Everyone is expecting that as we already bought a cheaper price of altcoins, however, it's not the scenario all the time as sometimes things happen on the opposite of our expectation, so I would also think of the possibility that a bear market will stay longer like the bull market we enjoyed last year.

It's not new to us, we've been in this kind of situation and we witnessed how bitcoin and the entire market drop, but here we are, the market still survives and we just came from a long bull run.

If you look closely at your chat @op you find out the market is in a rising triangle moving In a range form. The market might be bearish but not as if it's a bear market. A major break out will  give  a clear picture of  the market structure for now it's a range market meaning price is revolving around $46k+ we should patiently wait for a break out to decide if the market is bearish

Charts take into account only technical analysis, that is, one of many scenarios for the development of events. If humans were machines and their behavior could be predicted, then these graphs would be much more accurate. However, market participants are acting chaotically. The decisions we make from time to time depend on many factors, including our emotional state. And it changes frequently. What we do in one case, in similar situations, but later we do not do that. This is how we differ from machines and therefore technical analysis cannot be taken into account.

If we'll look at the previous prices of Bitcoin, we'll realize that the current price isn't something to be bothered about because corrections like this would be normal. We shouldn't fear the current value because that's part of the cycle but we can't conclude that it's already bearish. To be honest, the graph could analyze yet it couldn't predict Bitcoin's future price accurately so we shouldn't think that the price will continuously drop.

However, if you look at the previous correction, there is a fundamental issue behind the correction, so it is natural for the price to fall below 40k. Currently the conditions are quite different, the price continues to be bearish without any significant fundamental issues. So that the condition of falling prices, it can be predicted that it will touch the price of 35K.

The bitcoin price correction has hit 41% since November ATH. Probably not the worst in the past year as I saw a correction of more than 50% after the April ATH. I don't really know if the bearish phase has been confirmed at this time, but since November 10 until today the bitcoin price is in a correction phase despite several attempts to recover.

The potential for a correction of up to 50% of November ATH is always there if the market does not recover soon. $40K doesn't seem strong enough as support to contain the panic, so $35 would be a wall that is expected to prevent a big drop.

The market is currently blushing red, perhaps this all stems from several factors.
The result of my analysis that makes the market in the red zone is (Be careful this contains FUD)
1. The hacking of the BITMART exchange made institutional investors nervous.
2. Fear of the domino effect of failing to pay the debts of companies in China, the biggest example (the case of Evergrande)
3. Energy crisis. Since Indonesia, as the king of imports of nickel ore, the world has announced to limit the import of nickel ore to all countries. From this case, it is not only the crypto market that is affected but also the stock market
3.The FED says warning about crypto.
4. OMICRON Case
5.TAPERING is still looming over the crypto market.
6. BTC EXCHANGE RESERVE ATL means that the whales continue to hold their assets and are ready for dumo any time.

(DYOR)

(In fact, with this we are partying because we can buy our favorite crypto assets at a discount) and the good news is that ELSAVADOR will create a BTC city and there is a project that will be launched by the SEC, namely BTC ETFs)
We are experiencing together in 2021 BTC goes down and finally rises again and forms its newest ATH
"BUY THE DEEP"

The level of bitcoin downtrend is much, holders is losing excessively because of the market downstream, so it's possible for it to go beyond the level it's currently, selling now is supported for those who don't want to have patience of holding for awhile, because right now the market is running very rapid in degradation, so it's the opportunity to swap into stablecoin instead of selling out of fear, many people will keep holding until their coin decreases to what's not obtainable.

That's why many newbies panic when they see the Bitcoin price dropping, because newbies don't have experience dealing with bearish trends
like now, so sometimes I understand why newbies do cutlosses. Sometimes being a successful investor does need to suffer losses first,
so for newbies, please don't give up when they experience losses. The most important thing is that we can learn from the mistakes we have made,
so we don't have to make the same mistakes next time. Hopefully my fear that Bitcoin will drop below $40k doesn't come to pass, that's why
I always recommend to everyone to buy Bitcoin at the current price. Because if more people buy Bitcoin the price will help to go up.
But it would be even better if in the near future some good news emerged regarding Bitcoin, so it will make more and more people invest in Bitcoin.

I think the same thing, until now we are still waiting to make a purchase, by placing pending orders, in several locations, it is hoped that we can maximize profits later. I see a support limit in the 30K price range, if bitcoin still breaks again, then I think it will continue a deeper decline, therefore we must have reserve funds to buy back, in the sense that we don't spend capital on one purchase

I would say that's the right thing to do, buying the dip is the right strategy but you'll never know if the dip we are seeing now is not really it. I mean, if the price will go down further, we should have funds ready to buy them, that way, we won't be disappointed as we can sell some amount for short term profit once there's a minor recovery.

It's barely recovering now, so I have a feeling that this week bitcoin will fall below $40K.

As a person who has seen the price drop so many times in the past 10 years, I have to say newbies have always been like this and it looks like the "crash" we are having keeps becoming smaller and smaller. I mean remember the 2014 crash, it was horrible and took years to recover, then the 2018 crash and it took lesser years, and then in 2020 we literally had a crash and then a new ATH after that, which shows that there are less and less people who believe that bitcoin will crash and hence they end up not selling too much and the price drops a lot less than usual.

I hopefully can see that this crash will recover quicker than the previous ones as well, 2022 will have a big skyrocketing price for sure, I do not know when that will happen but I am sure that it will happen. Hopefully it will not take too much of time so that we could make some profit.

Most of the traders buy with all of their funds by expecting to the market to rise. But we should understand that in crypto market there is no upper or lower limits. Sometime overbought market keeps going up and oversold market keeps going down. Market is very unpredictable here so to be on the safe side it will be better to keep doing DCA.


Now most people expecting that so i think it will not stay longer there if it went below 40k. There could be a flash crash to liquidate long in future.

It's true what you said, the process that goes through in the movement of BTC prices is very dynamic, but holistically we can conclude that investing here is still very profitable.  it does take time and patience to get great results.  The only losers are those who are very impatient.
As low as the price is when bearish, it's still profitable if you wait for the market to stabilize.

You are correct, however someone that is buying the dip should be thinking about the long term prospects of his investment and not on the short term.

After all just as you state the price could go down even lower than the price that you bought, but if you are planning on holding your coins then that does not matter, what matters is that you bought your coins for a price lower than what you could do it weeks or months ago, and this is really important as many times whether you will get profits or not gets decided by the price at which you enter your position.

First off, you've to know that trading is a speculative business and that every trader is expected to have or develop their navigative tools to guard them. If your navigators are different from others, certainly you won't get the same readings as theirs. Know for sure that trading is about upward and downward movements and as such the movements aren't same across all timeframes. It could be bearish on the 1ht/4hrs TF but bullish on the Daily. It's good to always check higher timeframes to ascertain true positions of assets. From my observation, Bitcoin should be on a downward slope this first quarters at least for alts to pull up. We saw it bull almost throughout 2021. If there's any dip now, it shouldn't be a big deal. If you're trading, I advise you stick to your trading plan and don't be distracted by others.

but it looks like for now bitcoin is refusing to drop below $40k, but this doesn't mean the bear market is over as the pressure to go below is still very strong. I think now not a good time to buy as it is highly likely that the price drop will continue and if the bitcoin price drops below $40k it could cause panic selling among small investors and potentially lead to a deeper price drop.

As of today, some analysts say that we may have already reached the bottom. Last time, it broke the support level of $40k, so most of the speculators claim it might go down to $30k. However, $39k was the lowest before climbing back up to the range of $41k to $42k (just pushed back up to $43k as of this time of posting). Yup, it can be an upward trend as you said but we have to be prepared for the unexpected later on.

I think the chart is clearly showing everything positively .Its a clear bullish pattern .I think the thing he miss here the fear and panic sell which we don't able to draw on the chart or pattern .People are really get confused if it behave like 2017 as you mentioned that's the are having to sell their asset they even look into the pattern or chart that's why market are surviving now a bit .Surely it will recover and the chart is telling us that .So we need to patient and hold our asset may be the year 2022 will be huge for crypto holder .

The history of the Bitcoin movement has taught us all that patience will bring us big profits. Therefore, many people are used to when the Bitcoin
price crashes, because no matter how deep the Bitcoin price goes down, it will always go up again. So what needs to be done when the bearish
trend comes is to remain patient holding the Bitcoins we have, if we have extra money we can use it to buy more Bitcoin, the more we collect Bitcoin,
the greater the profit we generate. Earlier this year the price of Bitcoin was still in a bearish trend, but I'm optimistic it won't last long. Because
many people are more prepared to face the current bearish trend, compared to previous years. I even dare to predict the increase in the price of
Bitcoin in 2022 will be much higher than in 2021. So only people who are patient holding their Bitcoins will enjoy big profits this year.

but let's admit that most people were in panic mode when btc started going down. some were even speculating that it will hit 30k level. but the opposite happened, we are now going up again. so if you are in this market, your strategy matters to how you will optimise your gains here. don't follow the fud, just follow your own instincts. because at the end of the day, they don't care about your funds, it is all on you how you will take care of your investments.

If the price you look to recover is higher than $40k then that's really a slight recovery. But looking back at the price with a year or two, it's more than a slight.

They deserve it. They're listening to the advice of everyone who tells them to buy when it's low. But to those that will feel bad again for not buying on $40k, they're good to wait again for another correction. But if you're going to calculate the profit of theirs, that's still not that much especially if it's not a whole bitcoin that they've bought. It could be just a couple of bucks for small amounts to hundreds.

There's a small recovery, this is a good sign for the market, however, I think it's just a small pump but when the bearish mode is more dominant then we can expect more drops in the days to come. We cannot expect a lot after a bull run as based on trends, the market will be bearish afterwards, that's the fact.

Regardless on how good we are in making our own technical analysis, we cant accurately predict the movement of Bitcoin because anything is possible to happen. It can move upward, sideways or continue to decline. However this past few days the price is showing good improvement so im thinking the price wont go down further to $40k.

On the other side if we compare the current price to its ATH last year, we can speculate that we might be in bearish season already. However the current price is still expensive if we're going to track the past history of Bitcoin. Hence we should not worry to much and look forward for what future holds.

The point (or MY point) is, at least the way I see it, BTC started going up in 2020 and never looked back. It's 100% bullish, not bearish.
Sure, it has big (huge) swings. but not once has it gotten lower than its previous low, and it keep reaching ATH's consistently. Now it's going up. I'm expecting it to keep going up for a few months, until it reaches a new ATH, and then we'll see if it bounces back down or shoots up. 

What do you think will be the top though this year? I know that everyone is eager to see the price hitting $100,000 because it seems that we have been 'programmed' but some prediction modelling that we are going to hit that price.

However, it didn't and people now see the bear market slowly getting into the picture. So if you are still bullish can we still get into that 6 digits? or a new all time high around $70,000 but not going to reach $100,000?

Yes, everyone is expecting like got "programmed" because we are all got used to such 10x growth in previous 2 cycles of bitcoin markets. Repeating of history is most common scenario in all markets hence it seems no one is hesitating to speculate about the possibilities of reaching $100k in this cycle. But, pandemic might be playing a spoiler role here.

We cannot say that we are already into the bear market as bouncing back may happen at any time. Support around $40k is strongly holding and bitcoin is trading positive since last Sunday hence probably we might have reached the bottom of 2022, who knows?

Wouldn't we ALL love that? ;D
100K! Dammit!
We'll have to wait and see (and keep our fingers crossed). Right now at 43K, if I had a penny I'd put it on BTC. Over time BTC has shown to be more stable than other coins, so I don't know if I'd go as high as 100K, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went over 80 or 85K before the end of the year.
If my lines hold true (and that's a big "if"), it should be hitting 72+K by May. From then on, only time can tell where it goes...
If it breaks the resistance, 100K wouldn't be so far-fetched...  8)

Pump and dump this is market I think the market will pump soon it can call we correction cause covid situation is badly increasing hole wold day bay day. so after some day, I think everything will recover.

Expectations about december are too high causing a mismatched reality and regret :D
Calm down my friend also feels the same way but on the other hand it's still a blessing because the price is still good to buy and this is a discount before reaching $100k.
there was nothing to do but wait because there really was nothing else to do at this point.
panic now is not the time and not suitable for panic :D Just enjoy and hope this correction will be finished soon

The expectations were too high but they were not really out of place, people were expecting that maybe something similar to what we saw with the last bull run will happen again, unfortunately that was not the case but I think they had a point when thinking that such an event could repeat itself.

Now that December has passed and we know that it did not happen, but to me this just means that the ranging market in which we are in will just last a little bit longer, and once the whales have accumulated enough coins we are bound to see another important increase in the price of bitcoin.

Probably you just don’t need to listen to those who claim that BTC is now in a bearish trend, but there is also another answer, maybe you just didn’t draw the lines correctly, or you drew them according to your vision and knowledge, and not how they see the situation on the market its other members. Personally, I can only guess, since I myself am not an expert in this area. However, I agree more with your vision of the situation with BTC, since I myself drew some lines and I also got an uptrend, not a bearish one.

Whether it’s a bear market or it’s just a deep correction, however, for several months now, the cryptocurrency has fallen sharply in price and is practically standing still. Moreover, this happened in the last two months of the year, when traditionally prices, on the contrary, always grow significantly in price. Now I think that we are expecting a rise in prices in this market, but not now, but after some time: maybe another month or two will pass. However, growth is bound to happen.

Despite of the doubt if we are still bullish or bearish, i think as long as we are still witnessing that prices are declining, then it will be a good way to buy at the dip so we can prepare and maximize our profits when a real bull run comes in the market. After all, we are here for profits and right now we are seeing opportunities in front of us, so its better if we can buy in every dip because we really don't know when will this price correction recovers.

Technical analysis for me is more of effect in the forex trading as some forms of regulation do have its effect in the system and market, where by with some push of buttons and speech made publicly can twist the market heavily. This is also possible in the crypto world, but not really coming from some set of bodies. Bitcoin from the deep that was seriously experienced at 2017-2018 ATH and ATL made everyone to have the full perspective of Bitcoin as an assets that goes on both ways, just with time put in consideration, with a heart ready to hold all time long. The price of Bitcoin for a while now has been on the price mark of $42k and still moving within that range. Until it changes, either downwards, the deep continues and we buy or upwards, while we hold that which we have.
Bitcoin has a bright future and that is not arguable, cause it is known and yet to be well known as time goes on. If more investors join the community this year, then we should be expecting better highs and a new markto be made.

Probably, we will see bitcoin's new ATH once the big whales will take a break from accumulating coins. And when we see bitcoin is recovering, the whole crypto market will also be seen in price increase again. But for the meantime, its best if we could also grab this opportunity to fill our bags with promising coins so we can also prepare once the  market recovers. By that time, if we can start buying now and hold, there will be huge profits that we will be reaping by then.

You would really expect these kind of words whenever there's a market price decline on which people would really be having those thoughts and mindset which is something a part or been a natural thing happens on a
market yet we cant really just be moving upward constantly.

Of course there would be corrections and dumps that do happen yet we do have this situation called "profit taking" and some several factors that do affect the market when it comes to news
or simply with fundamentals.

If you are an investor then this is something you should mainly realized on.

This is the bear market that making speculators had been talking about and it's the best time to accumulate more positions of Bitcoin and altcoins because I am certain that soon the bull run will overtake the bear in slumber and take up the race to the top breaking another height that will shock making people including Investors and holders. Bitcoin is surely going to be sent to the space not just the moon.

Seeing how bitcoin price moves these days, i know it will lead to its bearish season that will pull the bitcoin price more. And for sure, some investors and long term hodlers will panic more seeing the price of bitcoin continues to fall. Maybe this time, it will reach $30k price level if this bear season will stay longer, but on the bright side it will open more opportunity for us so we can start buying bitcoin and good altcoins at their very low prices. This is a good preparation indeed so we can gain huge profits once bullish season will take over the bearish market.

It would be interesting to see what happens to the market from now on, to me it is clear the drop in the prices we are seeing all over the market has been caused by the crash in the stock market.

However this could be enough to make a lot of people panic into thinking the bear market has finally established itself in this market, make them panic and sell their coins for a bad price, however even with this negative movement I believe bitcoin still has a good chance of giving good results this year, it is just that it may take longer than what I expected to see those results.

I am not sure if it's already bearish or not, but it started last month, the market is already struggling so it's safe to assume that we are already in the bear season and the bull market is over. Bitcoin is very cheap now, it could go down below $30k if the current trend will continue.

Below $30k is quite possible, in fact, we even reach $28k the last time before the new ATH but this new trend is somewhat different. I hope couldn't be that long drops and it never reaches below $25k but yeah, preparing for the worst is somewhat needed this time and patience. I'm not yet to call it bearish that unless it crosses down below $30,000.

There are bull and bear markets within a single big bull trend. To see it you just need to zoom out a bit ;)
Somebody did the math for that and the average yearly profit from holding Bitcoin over the last 12 years was close to 100%. This means that if you held the USD you got -2% a year, If you held the Lira -10% and that stupid little bearish bitcoin was averaging at +100%.

My way of checking what's up with BTC is comparing the yearly lows.
https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1412516711040000002/photo/1

indeed 2021 may be the golden year of some coins, especially bitcoin, whether to continue from the double top to continue to be bearish or even going to bounce back to retest continuing the double bottom pattern, the scenario really makes me think a little, almost 40% of the decline from last year/coin. Hopefully it gets better soon .I haven't found an entry point for a price search

My money is ready if bitcoin touch below $25k  :P, I hope this year bitcoin and other altcoins except the memes one keep at a stable pace. I want to buy the dip as much as I can because if bitcoin touch around $20k again it wont happen again in the future. There's a lot of bad news about bitcoin recently so I'm positive right now the market is bearish.

Based on the market trend, bearish market approached this year. The graph and trend keeps on pointing out on bearish season, adding the fact that bearish market happens every 4 years and it's a cycle that keeps on happening over and over again. Which could either be a good thing or bad thing to some as it would make or break their goals and plans depending on which side they are planning to take - sell or buy.

Actually, this season is the great timing and opportunity to buy more reputable and trusted coins and also those which are promising ones that are backed up with data and information which could possibly pump by the next few years. Buying the dip is a nice move to do most especially if you intend to hold and wait for the market to pump again. Only that, if you are patient enough to wait for the perfect timing to withdraw and take profit. After all, not everyone is capable to hold for a long time due to various reasons. Holding is not for paperhands people who are easily shaken by the sudden drops in the market. Instead, it is for the diamond hands that are patient and hopeful enough to wait for their rewards. It is for people who do not panic sell and let their emotions get the best of them.

Once a season gets over we'll get to know particular trend has got over. In such a way we've crossed the bullish season last year. Once after a bullish season there used to be a bear market for some time period. What we are experiencing at present looks like the real bear market than a massive correction. Everytime there used to be some market crash when the Whales start playing in the market. This time too some Whales have started moving huge volume of bitcoin and now once after the crash started to accumulate again.

For now the long term movement resistance is around $43000. The market keeps bouncing and now it has failed to maintain resistance above $37000, so there is chance of dropping down to $35000. The low bottom resistance for now looks to be $30000.

Well, everyone is capable to create market analysis but it comes differently since we have our own perspectives and concepts on how we view the market. And for you OP, i guess there's nothing wrong about how you make your own analysis in the market. However, we can only tell that the market is bearish once crypto coins are having price decline of 20%. Seeing the prices not yet hitting the 20% price decline, then certainly this is more of a correction that makes the market moves unstable due to some factors affecting the market.

A support among $ 38000 has been maintained since the start of the war in Ukraine
The bullish momentum is slowing down on the daily chart, we probably won't see more upside as the uncertain landscape we are experiencing changes.
This is a new test for bitcoin and the community, not stopping us because something is being built in the crypto market every moment.
OP's analysis is correct because before a bitcoin bullish move there are things to figure out.

Trading is not only basing on Technical Analysis, but you should also consider Fundamental Analysis. You should also read about the economic state of some countries that holds a specific coin. I suggest do not only depend on your graph and charts, base also on some news. As a saying 'buy the rumor, sell the news'. Always DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, TRADE YOUR PLAN AND PLAN YOUR TRADE.

Yes, it seems that that support around $38,000 is strong as of this time. It has been defended well many times already. The bullish momentum has disappeared, since we get over like $43,000-$45,000. So now it's gone volume is slowing down, investors are shying away again or moving their funds to other assets. Nevertheless, if we can just maintain around $30,000-$40,000 this year, it will still be a good price for all of us. We don't want to see the price going down below that levels because there could be more panic.

I think when there is a bearish/dump even on BTC it really affects the value of the market aspect on other tokens, but what I think you are missing is when you don't buy at this time, because in essence hodl is a winner

It's good that Bitcoin has been holding at ~$40.000 for a long time despite all the current troubles. This shows that the crypto industry is getting stronger. But will it be able to maintain its positions at previous levels if the situation worsens? Some problems accumulate, like inflation, others may appear a little later as a result of instability in the geopolitical situation. It's hard to be an optimist in this situation. Most likely, the trend will be bearish: slow, long, gradual. 

Bearish or Bullish it doesnt matter because the most important thing is that you do able to make such decisions for your profitability whether you do sell or would buyback depending on the situation

if its bearish then you do buy and when it comes pump a bit or particular percentage then you do secure out profits then this is where most people should really be focusing on.
Now the price is having some gaining situation on which it would be that worth or ideal to sell into those people who had bought on 38k earlier.

Well, do not be overconfident, these sudden increases in the price of BTC can cause many people to start buying again, but we must bear in mind that we are in a war with Russia and Ukraine, which at any time can escalate to greater, so they are things that must be taken into account, it would be great if BTC could grow in price, but you just have to be careful about it.

When we talk about a market like BTC, we must take into account the number of transactions and the whales that enter, as well as the bullish plots that can be generated.

There is nothing wrong with technical analysis or drawing on a market, everyone has their own speculation. I see a bearish trend on low time frames such as 4 hours to weekly, while on large time frames bitcoin is showing a correction before continuing to rise. It all depends on each trading style.

The overall trend of Bitcoin shows a bearish move because it hasn't recovered after falling from it's ATH. On a short term trade it can be said to be on an uptrend. Investors who speak so much of Bitcoin been bearing are those who bought when Bitcoin was high but after it fell below $35k those who bought the dip are actually having a bearish trend at the moment.