BTC: is it really bearish?

[BernyJB]

Ok, as of late I've been drawing some lines (as practice, mostly), and now I'm more confused than ever. Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish, but the lines I drew show it to be on an upwards trend. I'm attaching a screenshot of what I see. The graph is from Binance.

So the magic question would be: what am I missing?

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[NeuroticFish]

Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish
[~snip~]
So the magic question would be: what am I missing?

What you're missing is basically all those who are not that vocal.
Although WO is basically bullish, hence it may not be the best example, I'll suggest you read 2 posts: this and this one. And I'm sure many others think like this. Clearly not a financial advice, but a good example to do as you think in trading and investing.

[Charles-Tim]

My post is not about trading but about hodling. People do not have to worry, they do not have to sell at loss, but I will encourage everyone to invest more if the price go downtrend. Bitcoin price will later have to increase. What I am thinking now with the news I read today made me think it will be hard for bitcoin to dip below $40000. I may not be accurate but I will be accurate about coming all-time-high. It can take time, but it will surely be one day in reality.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Wanna go check what was said in December 2017? It is obvious enough that you can't predict what will happen. What's the mathematical relationship that tells you it'd reach $70,000, I can't comprehend.

The thing I never understood is technical analysis. The question that I haven't yet got an answer is how to increase your chances of being right from a completely free market where everything happens unpredictably. I can speculate it'll worth more in the future, but up to there.

My post is not about trading but about hodling.

On that note, investing (AKA HODLing) is a hundred times better than trading. With investing you can do something essential, constructive, useful alongside. You don't have to give your sweat looking at charts for hours...

[TravelMug]

Hmm, you just have to look at what the S2F model is pointing at the beginning. And now we understand that TA is really very difficult as it might pointing to be bullish in your graph, on the contrary it may go down the opposite. So maybe you are missing that are not seems to be obvious at this point because it is not happening yet, just saying.

[Distinctin]

You missed the fact that not everything can be seen on the graph.

There are many more factors that could affect the price movement that you cannot see on the graph alone. People are saying that bitcoin is now bearish because they are based on the previous trend where after a bull run a bear market will dominate and it looks like we are in the same scenario now.

What you believe now is always up to you, besides, it doesn't guarantee anything so we just have to follow what we think would happen based on our personal analysis, not on the so-called "experts" in the space.

[BernyJB]

I see...
So basically  what I read is that some people will start screaming "bear" and run for the hills the moment a given asset loses a penny, and most will stop for a second and open a thread here before starting to run. Makes sense.
I'm still a long way from truly understanding technical analysis (I'm trying though). I understand the whole "volatility" concept, and the risk involved. Good to know I'm not completely off...

Thank you all for the prompt replies.   

[Furious 7]

because from the beginning, especially in December, I didn't really understand why they were called bearish even though it was only a temporary correction.
On the other hand, it may be assumed that people have different perspectives and are not seen from other perspectives because the research conducted mainly for traders is more in the direction of the short term, not the longer term.
basically people who say bearish will only make them panic themselves

[stompix]

Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish, but the lines I drew show it to be on an upwards trend.
So the magic question would be: what am I missing?

Because if you draw a line since 2011 even if the price reaches 10 cents you're going to see an upwards trend.
Randomly picking a date and drawing a line from here means nothing, sentiment can change from morning to afternoon and again during the night, poeple are calling it a "bearish" season simply because the current trend is not matching bullish expectations of 100k by Christmas.

But that doesn't mean anything, bitcoin could go up as I type by 5k, trends are there only to be broken, bullish or bearish.

Hmm, you just have to look at what the S2F model is pointing at the beginning. And now we understand that TA is really very difficult as it might pointing to be bullish in your graph, on the contrary it may go down the opposite.

Just how a crystal ball can be accurate if the right show from the TV reflects in it when the spell is being cast.
Or, in other words, the prices don't give a damn what some lines are drawn on a chart say. 
If TA would be at least 70% accurate everyone would be so rich already not to care about trading anymore.
 

[naira]

Bearish for the timeframe used by others will be different from the timeframe used by the holder. As a holder in their eyes, there is no bearish at all, because what they target is always profitable, but for day traders there is always time to see a bearish line.

So it all goes back to the method that is adjusted by each. Personally it's nothing dangerous bearish, while we see a bit of a gap to enter then buys will be set and waiting for a comeback for a long time.

[jrrsparkles]

Ok, as of late I've been drawing some lines (as practice, mostly), and now I'm more confused than ever. Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish, but the lines I drew show it to be on an upwards trend. I'm attaching a screenshot of what I see. The graph is from Binance.

So the magic question would be: what am I missing?

No one can say that, and only with TA also you can't come into any conclusion because there are lot of other factors also affecting the prices of cryptos. We already entered into 2022 and if you take a look at the history of 2017 and 18 there were similar patterns so commonly people get the impression of prices is about the fall so they all might started selling once their panic region started touching,

[Gozie51]

You are not missing anything for now but what you will miss is your bitcoin when you sell because of fud or fear and the next moment price is on another ATH scaling higher.

You are not sure where price will go likewise the other speculators but it is better to trend on the part of reasoning, bitcoin is getting into adoption and institutions are accepting it as payment . So what do you think ?

[browsiek]

Ok, as of late I've been drawing some lines (as practice, mostly), and now I'm more confused than ever. Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish, but the lines I drew show it to be on an upwards trend. I'm attaching a screenshot of what I see. The graph is from Binance.

So the magic question would be: what am I missing?

Maybe as good traders we don't have to race on the candle, because it doesn't guarantee its accuracy, although many say it's 70% 80% accurate but it's just an opinion so that traders can glance at it, even world-renowned experts are also not always right if it's based on the chart like that,
I think in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 the price of BTC will be affected by the announcement of THE FED which will be tapering to every country related to it in 2022. Why do I say that?
The reason is that most of the biggest shareholders in BTC are state agencies around the world which of course they will sell some of their assets for payment to the USA.

[Poker Player]

Ok, as of late I've been drawing some lines (as practice, mostly), and now I'm more confused than ever. Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish, but the lines I drew show it to be on an upwards trend. I'm attaching a screenshot of what I see. The graph is from Binance.

So the magic question would be: what am I missing?

I agree with most of my colleagues who have responded: the TA sucks. Some very experienced and knowledgeable people claim to make money trading with it but those who lose money are more than 90%, so it is not very reliable.

On the other hand, you have drawn some lines because you see a pattern, what you do not see is that you could draw infinite lines, which, logically some would seem much more reasonable than others, but all pointing to regularities.

Better to invest than to play roulette and let's leave TA aside.

[Oasisman]

Well, you just happen to have a different timeframe against the others who pointed out a bearish signs on their own chart.
However, a chart cannot also be accurate on what's about to tell us whether a bullish or a bearish sign. Prices always change every second.
It could suddenly fall during a massive sell off and then stay in a specific bearish region.

[wxa7115]

Ok, as of late I've been drawing some lines (as practice, mostly), and now I'm more confused than ever. Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish, but the lines I drew show it to be on an upwards trend. I'm attaching a screenshot of what I see. The graph is from Binance.

So the magic question would be: what am I missing?

You are not missing anything, charts are up to interpretation and as such two different people are going to see different things on the same chart.

Think of charts on the same way you think of a medical analysis, if you get your blood tested a bunch of data will appear, and while an inexperienced doctor may make a mistaken diagnosis an expert doctor will look at the same data and come to the right conclusion, so if according to your analysis you do not think bitcoin is bearish and you have confidence in your skills then there is a decent chance you are right.

[mindrust]

Ok, as of late I've been drawing some lines (as practice, mostly), and now I'm more confused than ever. Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish, but the lines I drew show it to be on an upwards trend. I'm attaching a screenshot of what I see. The graph is from Binance.

So the magic question would be: what am I missing?

You are missing one very important fact: Technical analysis is fortune telling. It don't mean shit.

You want to believe that support line is going to hold but it very well may not. So that chart you posted is completely meaningless.

Everybody don't keep talking about bear-btc. You are somehow only hearing their voice. There are plenty of bulls around too.

[fiulpro]

Hey
I have never tried doing such predictions because there are many sites online as well who does this stuff and people tend to follow them, but at the end of the day, I do not trust those sites altogether because they can only *predict*. But if I was you, I would change the *time frame* then analyze the market.
Plus being bearish or bullish does depend upon the fact that, what you are taking as your base price. For the time being I think it's hard to predict where the market is headed and you can completely choose to ignore the advice or predictions by the people here.
*It's not dependent upon a mathematical calculation, it would not follow your line for sure that's all I can tell you right now.*
((Forget about the lines, follow the news, keep a track of the price))

[terrorJR]

This is only a matter of the timeframe used, because it is not possible for long-term holders to use a 15-minute or one-hour timeframe but at least weekly or even more than that, unlike people who trade daily. they do checks and analyzes in close TF so it is very reasonable if the price decline occurs to say it is bearish.
on the other hand I'm more comfortable saying it as a correction than bearish

[Gozie51]

This is only a matter of the timeframe used, because it is not possible for long-term holders to use a 15-minute or one-hour timeframe but at least weekly or even more than that, unlike people who trade daily. they do checks and analyzes in close TF so it is very reasonable if the price decline occurs to say it is bearish.
on the other hand I'm more comfortable saying it as a correction than bearish

The price correction is currently happening with bitcoin dropping more than $2,000 today and now priced at $45,870. This has been happening since the beginning of the week against some speculation for bull this time. It is still looking bearish on a higher time and I think it causing some hodlers panic.