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Background to the conflict between Russia and the West:
This tension stems from the struggle for land on the Crimean peninsula. The territory is claimed by both Ukraine and Russia. This conflict has occurred since 2014, at a glance at that time Russia had occupied the Crimean peninsula from the hands of Ukrainian rulers and provided support to pro-Russian separatist rebel groups. Because for Russia, the Crimean peninsula is part of the former Soviet Union. As a result, Moscow again considers that the annexation of the Crimean peninsula is a form of assistance for the liberation of the region.

Then from the International community bloc itself that the Crimean peninsula is still a sovereign territory of Ukraine. Of course the conflict that occurred made NATO countries a little angry (America and Europe). The charges against Russia include gathering 100,000 troops to keep watch on the border with eastern Ukraine. However, Russia rejects the accusations and instead says it was Ukraine that wanted to attack Russia first by deploying nearly half of its troops to the Eastern conflict zone. Russia has even accused Ukraine of modernizing a drone strike from NATO member Turkey.

The charges leveled against the US include placing Tomahawk cruise missiles in Poland and Romania. And America is also accused of having funded about $ 25 billion into Ukraine in preparation against Russia.

Do you think there will be a potential war on the Crimean peninsula which is a seizure zone? and what is the impact on the political stability of countries in Europe, America and Russia that do not want to interfere in this dispute? Your feedback is very valuable.

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Source : https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/europe/ukraine-russia-tensions-explainer-cmd-intl/index.html

Here is my prediction -- Russia does what it wants with Ukraine because of immense military power, and NATO countries + US observes from a distance because of the lack any vested interest in Ukraine. Germany in particular has a financial incentive (oil pipeline) from Russia, but even if they didn't, Germany will not have gotten involved anyway.

The solution is for Ukraine to maintain their own sovereignty. This is either through military action or by making concessions to Putin's demands, major one is removing itself from the West/NATO.

From the looks of it, there is no hope in diplomatic resolution. I've read recently that US and Russian officials cannot come to any agreement; war is inevitably the answer.

I wouldn't call it a solution. Putin could then demand the same from e.g. Poland, or those tiny countries between Moscow and Kaliningrad.

I'd say this war would be pretty pointless for the US to join in like so many pointless wars after Korea such as Vietnam, Iraq Wars, Afghanistan (impeccable pull out of the country by our dear Biden btw) and all the other ones that people forget. If the UK/Europe wants to jump into it then it will be their death knell as both Russia and those countries would be devastated for years due to nuclear fallout and instability in the regions. I'm sure our fearless leader, the brilliant Joe Biden will certainly lead us off to die with Europe and UK to bring all powers, Russia, Europe, UK and the US into total collapse that the global elite will then have the perception that they can exploit. I'm here to tell them now that this won't be the case as two new superpowers will emerge from the conflict: China and India.

The main reason why this is the case is because they both have immersive manpower. All of the western countries and former Soviet-bloc countries have had an absolute population collapse. Another reason is both have nuclear power and could themselves create nuclear weapons. Additionally, neither will be involved in this conflict (unless China and India get into a greater border dispute that is ongoing which could go hot itself); therefore, if they are unscathed as the US and mostly Russia was post-World War II then history will repeat itself declaring them the victors of the next century. The crazy part is they would get this by not playing the game of war itself.

I do believe there will be a war on the mainland of Ukraine. Crimean peninsula is already gone for all intents and purposes. Currently it seems that most NATO countries (even Germany to some extent) are preparing Ukranians for guerilla type warfare. Historically one of the many reasons for the downfall of USSR was the fact that it got bogged down in Afganistan. It is not impossible that this in turn might be the downfall for Putins regime as well. Keep in mind that militarily Russia is mighty, but economically even individual European countries are stronger. So a protracted and costly guerilla war could exhaust Russia economically.

I believe that the impact of political stability will not be significant for the countries that don't want to get involved. At least it wasn't very impactful when Crimea got taken or when the war in Georgia happened. Of course there will be a whole lot of political rhetorics (Eastern European countries will vocally demand strong Anti-Russian actions, some Western European countries will debate wether this conflict is at all relevant to them, Germany does what Germany does, USA-s both parties accuse each other of not being tough enough). However I doubt that it will make a huge difference in the end.

Not only there will be a war in Ukraine, but there will also be war in all former Soviet satellite countries, i.e. WWIII.

The question is not if but when.  Putin already signaled that to the world.

People who think appeasing Putin will work have rocks for brains.

Nobody wants war, but with these Soviet leaders in charge, it is certain.

1938-1939 history is repeating itself.  Different actors, same outcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQ7x8odi-OU

PS. I bet Putin has plans not just for Europe, but for Latin/Central America and the rest of the world.
With Russian military bases in Mexico, you will be building that wall sooner rather than later, lol.

PPS. Soviets always maintained that Alaska Purchase was just a lease for 100/150 years, to be returned to Russia in 1966/ 2017.
So watch out for that headline one day.

Putin is a dictator, but he had to climb the ladder to reach power. He isn't crazy.

He is not going to invade Ukraine with conventional forces, it would be the end of the Russian small economy.

The Crimean adventure was very costly, the Russian economy is in ruins. He learned the lesson.

It's just a question of flexing the muscle to try to get a better bargain position and keep Ukraine out of NATO.

Agree. This war is very pointless for the US the Euro-Asian countries didn't want them there either. If you watch the news today in American media, it seems like they are already stopping the publication of the imminent war. This is because even the Ukrainian president announced there is no imminent invasion.

Imagine how much people believe in the lies that their media is telling to thier own people to justify war. All over the world, US has been moving from place to place to occupy a country and Euro-Asian countries understand which is not good for them.

The Western block and Russia should learn to genuinely respect the territorial integrity of all nations. Every nation must have the liberty to align to any nation or organization that suits their national interest without external interference.

Russia is scared that NATO's expansion to the Eastern bloc will undermine their national security. Since they lack the power to stop such move economically through sanctioning of Ukraine, they are using what they have: the military.

America and the West are also guilty of the same crime of undermining countries' territorial integrity through economic and military means. The bullying and sanctioning of Cuba and Venezuela because of their communist orientation by America is a clear example.

In Africa European powers are trying to undermine the efforts of Russia to help African countries fight Islamic  jihadists  because they fear that these States would pledge allegiance to Russia.

If the West and US is claiming that they are promoting respect for sovereignty of nations, then they must also allows countries to align to Russia ideologies without fear of intimidation.

Yesterday I listened to some analysts, he said something similar to you, Putin is looking for options and he is making a drama in order to get as much as possible, he also says that Putin plays poker and not chess!
It's interesting how one side is talking about how Russia wish to invade Ukraine, Putin is talking about how Ukraine will attack Donetsk and Luhansk and he wishes to defend Russian people there, some European countries have withdrawn people and their families from embassies and missions, Lukashenko says he will support Russia in everything even in war ...  and in all that we have Ramzan Kadyrov who says that if he is in Putin's place he would conquer Ukraine a long time ago!

In the meantime, innocent people are always the biggest victims! I saw some videos about Ukraine and how they are preparing some kids for the war... instead to live normal lives, playing with toys, and growing in good people they are learning about the war! What future will they have?

Putin and his cronies and their families should be penalized for creating this drama.

He has no business demanding anything from the Eastern European countries.

West should confiscate all assets of his cronies and their extended families, revoke their visas, citizenships.

Send them packing, back to Russia.

No more Western banking, schools, luxury products for you.  Next!

Putin's cronies would kill him in a New York minute.

He didn't demand anything from anyone until the US wants to invade Ukraine in the guise that they are protecting Ukraine from the Russian invasion. Ukraine President did tell Biden that THERE IS NO RUSSIAN INVASION https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10452249/Ukrainian-President-Volodymyr-Zelensky-told-Biden-tone-messaging-invasion.html

But their media keeps the lies creating panic. Its also the reason why NATO has been divided already. None in Europe supported the US to go to Ukraine in the pretense of protection. US just crossed the line and no European countries will support them anymore.

Western banking is just not useful anymore. it's from the time of the dinosaurs, it becomes obsolete since the time BTC was created and there's a Chinese payment system also that works the same way.  

From my perspective, a war between Russia and Ukraine may not happen (or it could) there are many factors that make both of them resist their will to fight, such as economic problems and international stability (because this could trigger a third world war: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-a-full-invasion-by-russia-could-trigger-world-war-three-warns-government-minister-in-kiev-12496570 (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-a-full-invasion-by-russia-could-trigger-world-war-three-warns-government-minister-in-kiev-12496570)) and of course, many countries will oppose this, such as the Non-Aligned countries, which is one of the neutral organizations and maintains stability between the West and the East. They would of course be against this because a war like this would destabilize international stability and would increase commodity prices, most notably oil and gas. Hopefully, the two countries will not go to war, as did Taiwan and China some time ago.

He already invaded Ukraine in the past.  He annexed Crimea.  He broke the Budapest Memorandum.  Russia is a rogue state.

Soviets (aka Russians) flexed their military muscles now because they want to interfere with NATO expansion.

Their 'demands' are laughable.  What gives them the right to demand from Romania or Bulgaria to withdraw NATO troops?

West should demand the Soviets remove their troops from Moldova, Belarus, Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine.

West is playing too nice with the Russians.

At this point I would not even discuss anything with these animals, just impose the sanctions, confiscate their assets, stop trading with them, block them off.  They can trade with China.  Putin can park his billions in Chinese banks.

We'll gonna have to look at it from afar. maybe just 10 steps back and see what the US had demanded from Russia. They wanted Russia to back away when they are just on their borders?  Russian troops have all the right to stay anywhere in their vicinity.

The 2014 incident had long been discussed already. There was even peace thereafter Russian intervene so why should they bring that up when there are already talks. If NATO has to intervene, it should have been that year 2014 as well but why now after almost a decade?

Ukraine is of no use to US but for a particular reason, it is to spark a war but EU countries are not supporting it. Germany, Belarus, Hungary, and more already expressed thier side. The only who supports NATO is Borris who wants sanctions lol, SWIFT is an old system. The Russians or Chinese doesn't need it anymore.

There will be no war that will happen and if anything, the west will isolate itself when European countries take sides with the east powers like Russia and China. They better take care of thier Build Better Back project quickly because it's an economic war that's happening and not military conflict.

As an American, it's easy for me to look at the Russia situation and blame them for trying to ignite a war.  It does appear to be a bit of a double standard though.  Russia has been fairly open about the military defense systems surrounding their country making them uncomfortable and their concerns being ignored.  I don't blame them for being upset.  Looking at a map it's pretty crazy the amount of weapons the US and UN control around Russia's borders.  Maybe I'm ignorant, but I think if Russia and Canada/Mexico formed deals to have Russia keep military equipment and missile launch systems within a stone's throw of our borders, I would expect us to threaten action as well.

Not trying to defend Russia, but the situation does seem slightly hypocritical to me. 

The Russian army has no business being in Eastern Ukraine and in Crimea.  They need to take their soldiers, tanks, and missiles and go home.

They killed 14,000+ Ukrainians since they started this war.

The majority of Ukrainians do not want to be under Russian influence because of the oppression that Ukrainians suffered under the Soviet Union. Holodomor, followed by labor camps.

I am not sure what Putin is thinking.  Slavic Brothers my ass.  Eastern Europeans who lived under Russian rule hate their guts.

There will be no new war.  Ukraine will join NATO, clean up Eastern Ukraine, and his dream of restoring the Warsaw Pact will be dead.

US Navy ships tried to get close to Crimea which is really provoking for the Russians which Russia shot to warn them. I don't know how the US will react if a Russian ship will be in the Gulf of Mexico. The media will really tell the world a wartime story like Russia nuked Houston by showing Nagasaki photos.


It's not that simple to make a war really. I can understand why Biden wants to become a wartime president because ever since wartime president has had a higher rate. However, he chooses the wrong time and the wrong opponent. If it's just Cuba, it could be simple. The Havana syndrome could be an excuse already.

Eastern Ukraine, is ruled for a long time by rebels. Although we could say Putin supported those rebels, probably provided weapons too. It's up to him whatever his reason but having those rebels there will push away from NATO expansion closer to them and the region (Donetsk) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic) govern by rebels already declared independence. That's thier business there.

They leave it be. But if there will be war, who's troops are going to face Russia's troops?
Do you think US troops will go this far? They'd have to be reminded that Lukashenko is just nearby.

Yes, this is very likely. Especially with someone who has been wrong on every foreign policy issue over the last 40 years as president in the US. I can all but guarantee that this would not be happening today if Trump was president.

NATO was intended to deter Russian aggression toward Europe, and even though Ukraine is not part of NATO, invading Ukraine is a signal to NATO that eastern NATO nations are next. Unfortunately, the US has effectively been subsidizing European defense since during WW2, and NATO members other than the US are not serious about defending NATO.

As it stands, now Russia would suffer major losses in invading Ukraine, even if NATO and/or the US does not get involved. The people of Ukraine are against being invaded by Russia and the US, under the Trump administration had fairly decently armed Ukraine. So even if Russia does invade Ukraine, it is not a given that Putin survives politically (he is a dictator, but even dictators can only do so much and still stay in power).

Assuming Russia invades Ukraine, what happens next, will largely depend on Germany and the rest of Europe. If the Germans are willing to shut down the Nordstream pipeline and impose strong sanctions on Russia, I don't think Russia will advance past Ukraine. However, if Europe is unwilling to force Russia to pay economic penalities for an invasion, Russia will likely quickly expand Westward.

Thats because current American and German government are lefties that just dream about trading with Russia again.
Especially German, they do want to open Nordstream 2 :)

In Germany, the problem is that the communists did not die.

Case in point, Matthias Warnig, Stasi agent, who worked closely with KGB agent Putin and raised his daughters,
is the CEO of Nord Stream AG.

Communists infiltrated all levels of government and private business.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthias_Warnig
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Vorontsova

Soviets never died. Socialism and Communism are very popular among young people in the West. 
Thanks to Soviet propaganda, information war.

Germany is a Russian trojan horse in NATO and they showed it by not allowing the British aid through to Ukraine. They don't care what Russia does as long as it does it outside the EU. If Germany attacked Poland it would be a different thing because Poland is in debt with the EU and a useful source of cheap labor for Germany. The EU is like a big farm where poorer countries are first pumped with cash and then, once they're unable to pay it back, farmed for installments, resources and so on.  Tensions with Ukraine make things better for Germany and Poland because Ukrainians are now willing to move West and work for for cheap, but none of these countries would one day want to share a border with Russia.


I feel like Ukrainians will have to make up their minds if they want to be a part of this new Russian union along with Belarus, or join the EU. They didn't join the EU at first because they wanted to stay independent and at the same time keep relations with Russia, but as we can see this can no longer be maintained. You can't have a cake and eat it.

I can see you are buying most of the Russian arguments. They have no intention to invade, they are just positioning troops in excess of 100k men and plenty of weaponry intended only for offensive use, to protect Russian territory. Protect from what?? There are no troops in Ukraine that could threaten Russia in any manner and the west is not even considering going to war. Second, Crimea was not a territory in contest, it was Ukrainian and Russia invaded and took control of it.

I am happy to discuss reasonable arguments, but, on this case, the insincerity is just absurd.

+1

It is not about the 'protection' of Russia.

Soviets want their territories back.  That is what is all about.

Putin wants to control the former Warsaw Pact countries.

His ultimate goal is to re-establish the Soviet empire, with him as beloved (and feared), the supreme leader.

He has some serious mental problems.

I don't think Russia needed to declare it is ready for war, it kinda had that sentiment all the way from the end of WW2, and it has been in armed conflicts throughout the last 70 or so years. This is not the first time we have been rattled by the notion of a world war in recent years, but it seems that the modern era has, in a way put the brakes on such massive conflicts. More war has been waged behind closed doors through economy and politics than it has been in all-out conflicts. And, without being overly optimistic, could be the case here. That doesn't mean some military scruffles won't happen, but it might not result in total war as we think it would.

Yes. insincerity is just absurd. Like this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuvb3FEHz3U

The media keeps pushing there will be an invasion. Well, there is not so if the media keeps doing it, it makes Putin and Lukashenko think there is something will happen because they have done it before. Especially with the news that the US is sending troops.

Iraq has a weapon of mass destruction and the media keeps pushing the news that Sadam will shoot that weapon and suddenly we see him dead on the street. Just like Gaddafi. It ends up in changing a president of a country which could possibly happen in Ukraine or in Russia itself. This is why even US citizen doesn't believe their own media anymore look at the rage there in the US today.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/us/politics/russia-ukraine-invasion-pretext.html

Russia allegedly planning to pretext their invasion using a staged video of an attack by Ukraine on Russian military. This is only according to US intelligence, though British intelligence claim a similar operation was being planned.

Journalists have asked the U.S. for the exact evidence of this intelligence, U.S. officials provided none other than their own words. Sound familiar to WMD's in in '03 with Iraq?

So Putin wants to be responsible for the next world war? If conflict escalated between that two superpowers then it won't be among them only. The whole world will take a side and start killing each other. But I think EU leaders are more realistic about the situation and will not start a proxy war for the USA. Germany said that they will not supply any weapon to the Ukraine military which means they know they need Russia for natural resources. The USA just trying to restore its pride by threatening Russia after being defeated by the Taliban. Otherwise, Ukraine is not that valuable for the USA to start a war.

The US state department has provided no evidence to support how they know this. When pressed, the state department has said that the allegation is based on newly "declassified information", and when asked what the declassified information was, the state department said that the declassified information is that Russia is planning on executing a false flag operation. When pressed on how the state department knows this, a spokesmen essentially said that the allegation is true because he said it is true.

This may or may not be an accurate report. However, the state department is not installing confidence. I think it is probably more likely that the US intelligence is speculating that Russia may execute some kind of false flag report, but they do not have any concrete evidence one is in the making.

It did not take them long to make this official. Fuck, I can read these fuckers like an open book, lol:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/russia-alaska-california-fort-reparations-sanctions

NATO, do you still think we are not at war with Russia?

Whether both countries are as guilty as charged by the other it's a big question, cause both NATO and Russia is just playing politics with the whole issue in which the ball in play (Ukraine) is receiving the whole heat on all sides.

This war is basically an arms conflict game between the Powers that be, so let Ukraine take up a decisive step either to concede to Russia to end this war or totally join the NATO. Either way Ukraine decision may either escalate or bring an end to this war.

I have seen all over the forum "I am not with Russia but...". Firstly, this is not Russia, this is Putin's version of Russia.  Secondly, "feeling uncomfortable" is not a morally or legal valid excuse to attack another country with the intention to change their government.

Now, I do get there is a point on not throwing rocks at a bear, however you cannot let the bear decide what you can or cannot do in your country or else you will never be free to progress, change and evolve as a nation.

On the NATO argument, there is no argument. Putin knows perfectly well that NATO would not accept Ukraine as a member - it is simply too risky. This is all about Putin trying to get a strategic hold on the Black Sea and trying to incorporate Ukraine, a large food producer, into their crony envelope of oligarchs to steal from Ukrainians as he steals the resources of the Russian people.

appeasing putin means just recognizing the donbass genocide and leave russian speaking ukranians alone,