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It has been eight years since Russia last invaded Ukraine. What has changed, and what has not?

Russian exports of oil and natural gas are an essential source of hard currency that helps cover the cost of importing manufactured goods. Russia’s oil, gas, and coal exports are also an essential source of energy for European consumers and businesses, without which they couldn’t generate electricity, fuel their vehicles, or heat their homes and offices.

This entanglement limits the West’s ability to penalize Russian aggression financially. Yes, cutting Russia off from the global financial system would devastate the Russian economy and impose severe hardship on the Russian civilian population, but it would also force Europeans to slash their energy consumption.

Milder sanctions could protect Europe’s access to oil, coal, and gas, but their impact on the Russian government’s behavior would be commensurately smaller. The Putin regime has spent years acclimating Russians to material deprivation and it has also built up substantial financial buffers. Not for the first time, conservative macroeconomic and regulatory policies have shielded a revisionist regime from international pressure.

There was nothing that Europeans could have done about the Russian government’s decision to impose severe costs on its civilian population for the sake of maintaining its own flexibility. But Europeans can and should be blamed for becoming even more reliant on Russian fossil fuel exports since the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. They wasted nearly a decade when they could have been greening their economies and also increasing the security of their own neighborhood. Ukrainians—and others—will now have to live with the consequences.

Russia’s Fortress Balance Sheet

The Russian government’s ability to withstand financial pressure was hard-earned. Most obviously, total spending on imported goods and services (in U.S. dollar terms) has consistently been about 25-30% lower than it was before the first invasion of Ukraine. While some of this can be attributed to declines in the world prices of Russia’s oil and gas exports, Western sanctions and Russian domestic policies have also played a role.

https://i.ibb.co/fx1ykcq/impose1.jpg

The sustained drop in imports has left a mark on Russian consumers’ spending. In inflation-adjusted terms, Russian households spent 12% less in 2016 than they did at the peak in 2014. Even in 2019—before the coronavirus pandemic upended the world economy—Russian consumers were about 2% worse off in material terms than they were before the first invasion of Ukraine.

https://i.ibb.co/52Ct2Sr/impose2.jpg

Meanwhile, Russian businesses and other borrowers responded to external financial pressures—and domestic political ones—by slashing their foreign-currency denominated debt by $200 billion since the beginning of 2014. The Russian government also spent $200 billion adding to its stockpile of reserves (gold, bank deposits, and bonds) since mid-2015.

https://i.ibb.co/PjtnRWT/impose3.jpg

The net effect is that Russia’s central bank now has enough foreign exchange reserves ($630 billion as of last month) to cover 2021 spending on imports ($368 billion) plus 75% of the country’s entire stock of foreign-currency denominated debt ($353 billion as of 2021Q3).

Much of that debt isn’t even due for at least two years.

https://i.ibb.co/BwfXk72/impose4.jpg

None of this, however, is sufficient to protect Russia from the impact of sustained Western sanctions. As the Taliban has discovered, foreign reserves are useless if your counterparties freeze your accounts. Even Russia’s $132 billion in gold reserves couldn’t be used to settle payments if Western banks were banned from touching anything involving Russia.

The Russian government nevertheless feels that it has room to act because it knows that the Europeans need them.

Europe’s Self-Inflicted Error

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2014, I wrote that Russia faced a long-term strategic vulnerability: Europeans had the option to squeeze Russia permanently by reducing their reliance on Russian energy exports. At the time, about 60% of Russia’s total export revenues came from sales of crude oil, refined products, and natural gas—and much of that went to Europe.

The Europeans could have built out their capacity to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. and other allies. Even better, the Europeans could have reduced their reliance on fossil fuels altogether by building out more alternative energy generation.

Either way, Gazprom’s network of pipelines would have been transformed from a source of leverage into an albatross. Russia could have found other customers for its gas—most obviously China—but building the necessary transportation infrastructure to compensate for the loss of the European market would take years. Russian oil could be sold elsewhere more easily, but the prices would have to be lower if European demand disappeared.

At first glance, it almost looks as if that’s what happened. Russia’s total export revenues from oil and gas fell from $350 billion/year before the first invasion of Ukraine to $231 billion in 2019. While Russians made up the difference by increasing other exports, including food, the squeeze on energy revenues is real.

https://i.ibb.co/fqYQcY2/impose5.jpg

But the Russian energy export squeeze had nothing to do with European restraint.

In 2013, the countries of the European Union imported about 135 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia. That was equivalent to about 70% of Russia’s total gas exports and equal to 37% of the EU’s worldwide gas imports. Yet in 2019, EU countries imported 166 billion cubic meters of Russian gas—23% more than before the invasion of Ukraine. That was equivalent to 75% of Russia’s total gas exports and 38% of the EU’s worldwide gas imports in 2019.1

European demand for Russian crude oil and refined petroleum products was slightly lower in 2019 than in 2013, but this was offset by surging European demand for Russian coal, which now accounts for almost half of the EU’s coal imports. Put another way, the countries of the EU went from consuming about 62 exajoules of energy in 2013 to 61 exajoules in 2019, while Russia went from supplying 10 exajoules of that energy in 2013 to 11 exajoules in 2019. Despite a slight decline in fossil fuel demand, Russia’s share of the European energy mix rose from 16.5% to 18.5% after the invasion of Ukraine. Europe’s dependence will only increase if the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline comes onstream as planned.

https://i.ibb.co/84FdfSZ/impose6.jpg

The perverse result is that Europe is at greater risk of Russian pressure than the other way around. Natural gas prices in Europe are now about 5-6 times as high as in the U.S. because Gazprom has been withholding supply and because the lack of LNG terminals has prevented ships from moving gas across the Atlantic.

And while Europeans have made some modest investments in solar and wind energy over the past decade, it hasn’t been nearly enough to make a dent in the overall energy mix, especially after factoring in the impact of the decisions to decommission existing nuclear power plants.

The Europeans seem to have—belatedly—realized the implications of all this. As EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put it on Tuesday:


I hope her words are heeded.

https://theovershoot.co/p/russia-was-prepared-to-withstand

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Interesting write up on the russia ukraine situation from last month.

It appears europe's reliance on russian oil has grown from the conflict in crimea in 2014 leading to the present. Rather than taking steps to reduce reliance on russian oil, europe has taken the opposite precedent. Making it even harder to decouple from russian oil today. The author of this piece goes on to criticize europe for not greening its economy to become less reliant on russian oil. I myself am not a fan of these bold criticisms, unless they come before hindsight being 20/20.

The charts posted detail russia's efforts to harden its economy against economic sanctions from years past, to the present. Some of us may remember reading about russian efforts to prepare for SWIFT bans a long time ago. Russia never considered the possibility of peace in ukraine and definitely spent the past 10+ years preparing for an eventual war. There is a question of why the rest of the world was not preparing. Russia appears to have caught everyone asleep and unprepared.

He has spent decades projecting an illusion that Russia is to be feared, however it has barely made any progress in Ukraine - it would get annihilated by NATO if it ever tried to invade anywhere else in Europe.

I'm not a Putin supporter.

My goal is to be as accurate as possible about the situation in ukraine. As accurate information is important to understand the nature of reality.

What stands out the most about russia's invasion of ukraine, is its efforts to conduct the operation on a shoestring budget. Russia primarily used conscripts who are paid a reduced wage, in contrast to professional soldiers. Russia avoided using air support to eliminate higher costs associated with jet fighters and smart bomb ordnance. From the beginning, it seems russia prioritized cost savings to wage a war that would put as little strain on its economy as possible.

Russia was definitely hit hard by sanctions and other financial measures taken against them. But looking at their approach, they were preparing for this from the start of the war.

It may also be fair to say that should russia manage to solve enough of its economic troubles, it will return once again to its invasion.

Most sources I have seen credit russia with having the #2 military in the world. I wonder if they are underrated.

Russia was gearing up for an attack and you can see it on these statistics posted by OP how much they sped up their accumulation since 2018. The EU had years to realize that but they failed.

A new Indo-Russian transaction platform may be up this week
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/a-new-indo-russian-transaction-platform-may-be-up-this-week/articleshow/90551703.cms
"Russia's state-owned development bank VEB and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have likely finalized an alternative transaction platform to facilitate bilateral trade after Western sanctions firewalled Moscow's access to the globally used Swift banking platform, two people familiar with the matter told ET."

Possibly this will encourage more trade partnership to happen. This way more investments will also move into Russia from India than moving towards USA. Maybe Russia can practice similar approach with other countries too, which will devalue the price of USD. With this both the countries will be profit than using USD.

Russia have been trying to come out of the sanctions through his brave ideas, but this is just for now. In the long term surely they'll be in need of the swift system. On the other side west isn't able to handle the situation, so it hasn't revealed any statement. Some countries have opposed the pay in Rubles and Russia is with a never mind approach.

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They are not fully prepared of course the sanctions against Russia had made the citizens poorer but because of the gas that Russia has, they found ways to survive all these. They are gaining friends in this battle actually, they only need India and China for it. The population of these two country could help thier economy withstand. China and India somehow resolved their territorial dispute on borders to make deals. There is a shift in geopolitics in this area. And there are more going along with Russia like Turkey and Pakistan.

While there may be countries opposed to paying in rubles, they may have to endure just like a sacntion. I think Russia will get more countries on thier site by making the ruble only the accepted currency.

For me, everything is clear. Europe and America are accustomed to considering themselves the leading countries that can very easily manipulate all other countries. But the pressure on Russia did not begin even in 2014; hatred for Russians is born deep in history. But as the Russians say: "everything that does not kill us makes us stronger" Therefore, the Russian government, feeling another negative influence, as well as a dictatorship from the West, has always understood that it is necessary to prepare for the fact that sooner or later, this abscess of hatred will breakthrough. And as an example of today's events, the Russians were right.
They are ready for all sanctions, as they probably worked out all the situations that could happen in the future. But all other countries, mistakenly taking on the role of head of the world, did not take any action, always thinking that power and strength would always be theirs. But now everyone understands that this Russia is not so weak, for which it was taken earlier.

The US and Eastern Europe has been criticizing the growing dependence on Russian fossil fuels for a long time. But Western Europe wanted to reduce American influence, and they believed that they can contain Russian aggression by being friendly. They miscalculated heavily, because Putin viewed friendliness as softness and invitation for more aggression.

I wouldn't say that Russia was fully prepared for sanctions. A significant part of their 600 billion reserves got frozen, because it was held in the west. Russia heavily relies on imported components for manufacturing nearly anything, so their military-industrial complex got hit very hard with sanctions.

Also, the full effect of sanctions will become clear in 1-2 years. But some of the Russian top officials already admitted that they didn't expect sanctions to be this harsh.

Every governments just focused on their temporary goals and spend more time on how to keep their place in the next election meanwhile Putin had some long term goals and still doing it in the more effective ways that is why western countries still dependent on the Russia's oil while they may brought some alternative to that but now they will prepare for it but again it will take a decade until that Russia has the power.

The Russia was the powerful country as like America, China. So other country was not starting war against this two. All the country including America, they just doing financial support to the war for Ukraine. But still Russia moving up with the strategies. And the people of many developing country was suffering a lot now.The reason for this was very simple.The oil price was keep on increasing in most developing countries

US national debt
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
America built the most powerful economy in the world because it bought resources and the best specialists in the world with printed dollars.
For many years, Russia was a colony that sold its resources cheaply, and now these sanctions hit the European economy even more painfully.

In this war, Russia and Ukraine were directly involved, but many people did not realize that behind the back there were several countries that were indirectly involved, namely those you have mentioned, both the United States and China.
indeed this war has an impact on many things, one of which is the most pronounced is the price of oil,
oil prices are really crazy and hope it can go down soon

I'm ready to disappoint you .. China, the USA, it's all "far-fetched", or is the result of what started not a month ago. I am a citizen of Ukraine, and for many years, since 2000, I worked in a company whose office was in Donetsk. So I inform you - since 2000 (and possibly earlier), Russia has been actively promoting the idea of ​​a "Russian world" in Ukraine, especially in regions where most of the population was once resettled from the RSFSR on the territory of Ukraine, where before that, Soviet power destroyed the local population. Yes, you guessed it - these are today's territories where the virtual states of the DPR / LPR have been created. I am sure that the same work was carried out in Belarus, and possibly in other countries that were once part of the USSR.

I do not know what he meant, but I can tell you that there is a "hidden" involvement as in when the west sanctions Russia because of what they did, and china helping Russia economically. So, it is not like other nations caused the war (or maybe they did, I wouldn't know) but more mainly it is about how nations took sides when this war started.

We are all standing with you, we believe you are the innocent party and Russia (well mainly Putin) needs to be though a lesson and I am sure that you will win this one, I really pray to god every day that you guys come out safe and as little death as possible. This means I support you, this also means my nation does as well, and few other nations, that is what people mean when indirect involvement.

The author of this piece goes on to criticize europe for not greening its economy to become less reliant on russian oil. I myself am not a fan of these bold criticisms, unless they come before hindsight being 20/20.

I don't think Europe actually envisage this war and the dimension it's taking, otherwise they would have longed source for alternative energy from Russia. Putin knew directly fighting him would mean hell, he knew it would be economic war, so he was better prepared.

The war has gone into it second month and yet no solution is coming to resolve the war for peace and stability to return into the area and production of Oil and gas to be restored. Prices are going high and people are suffering. They are discussing to evaquate civilians and that suppose to mean more fight ? This is alarming, refugees are created and destabilizing the other countries that are neighbours. Russia is showing EU that it is more prepared for the war but this has to stop.

Putin is only priding himself on the Oil and gas that he is supplying to Europe and what happens if at the time of this heat of war, they get another supplier, Russia will be subjected to more sanctions and the experience wi!l be very bad for the Russian economy and people. Europe actually didn't see that it will get into this and that Russia won't have to cut off supply from them.

I agree that the western countries and their allies were caught unprepared. And it's primarily because they probably thought it was unimaginable for Russia to invade Ukraine. To take a contested territory would be possible but to invade the entire country was perhaps out of their minds. This is the modern era, after all. They probably failed in their assessment of Putin. They simply underestimated his madness.

On Russia's side, however, I also don't think they were prepared. They definitely underestimated Ukraine and its defense capabilities. They overestimated their troops' capabilities. They underestimated the allies' reaction. If they were preparing for this war for the last decade or so, they should have pulled out their huge sums of money from European banks prior to the attack. They should already have detached themselves from SWIFT. They should have established much stronger markets outside the enemies' territories. Their oligarchs should have already been warned earlier of the possible sanctions.

Russia has lost its adviser to you. Only you could tell her what she should have done and what she shouldn't have done. And Putin, whom you think is crazy, has put Europe in an uncomfortable position today. Although grain supplies will also run out soon, which will make you think a little differently since I think that the lack of gas does not reflect on you.
Did you hear Biden let it slip? Not? He advised everyone not to worry, that any military situation is always in America's interest. But what about Europe, everyone will ask? Biden doesn't care. America supports war always only in its own interests.
Therefore, one should not consider people who lead countries as idiots, everything was calculated long ago, since these disagreements were not born a month ago. Russia knew what to expect and from whom, and as you can see, it was ready for anything.

. And I am very much willing to put my money where my mouth is. I am willing to bet for this. Are you?

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Sanctions can only do so much. We all know that. I doubt it can fully convert a country. Heavily-sanctioned countries like North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and others are still standing on their feet. Russia is apparently richer than these countries so we won't be expecting it to bow down either. However, this doesn't mean that they're ready or have prepared for it. It's just that crazy leaders like Kim Jong Un and Putin couldn't care less about sanctions. These sanctions are not taking any luxury or power from them. Neither Kim nor Maduro nor Putin is deprived of a sumptuous meal because of their madness. But their people are.

More than a month since the invasion, instead of successfully taking over Ukraine, setbacks are now seen. I am certain that even with another month of extension in this foolishness, Russia will not be able to take Ukraine despite all the propaganda that they have calculated and are ready for everything. And I am very much willing to put my money where my mouth is. I am willing to bet for this. Are you?

For me, everything is clear. Europe and America are accustomed to considering themselves the leading countries that can very easily manipulate all other countries. But the pressure on Russia did not begin even in 2014; hatred for Russians is born deep in history. But as the Russians say: "everything that does not kill us makes us stronger" Therefore, the Russian government, feeling another negative influence, as well as a dictatorship from the West, has always understood that it is necessary to prepare for the fact that sooner or later, this abscess of hatred will breakthrough. And as an example of today's events, the Russians were right.
They are ready for all sanctions, as they probably worked out all the situations that could happen in the future. But all other countries, mistakenly taking on the role of head of the world, did not take any action, always thinking that power and strength would always be theirs. But now everyone understands that this Russia is not so weak, for which it was taken earlier.

There is a nuance that you did not take into account. North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba are small countries, countries where life is bad are a common thing. Iran cannot be called a small country, but after the overthrow of the secular government, it turned into a virtually medieval country, with a tough, totalitarian government, where a low standard of living is commonplace. This time. Two - such a number of sanctions, with such a variety as in Russia, are not and have not been in the listed countries. They also do not have the collapse of the army, and the loss of confidence in the authorities. There are many more differences. And most importantly, Russia needs to maintain a huge number of security forces, to contain internal tensions, it is necessary to support "Putin's friends" who have lost hundreds of billions of dollars, it is necessary to contain at least 100 million biomass, which, although used to living at the bottom, can start a revolution, to replace an unsuccessful king with another king. Therefore, sanctions for Russia-have a devastating effect, for the countries you listed-an uncomfortable effect.

I will find where to spend my money, and if you are such a "patriot" who watches fake news, donate to someone who tries so hard to make you believe in them. I say again, time will tell who is right and where, it’s not worth setting deadlines, but these posts will remain, and you have the right to find them and then think how stupid you were.

Yeah, after reading this and seeing the graphs it really seems russia was planning this since very long? What if everyone today is just blind folded since the last Ukriane attack 8 years ago? Russia might have built the internal strategy right after they backed up the previous war. They might have projected the whole plot for example, how europe will react with the war breakout, how america will react which is most rival country for them or other way round.

The steadiness is due to Russia's richness in the fossil resources. They know world wants them and specifically the neighbouring European countries. Europe surely created too much dependency on the Russia and all sudden the they went rogue.

I think it is one of those strategies for war where you press the most weak point of others and then torn them inside out.

This isn't something they "planned", I mean of course they probably knew what they would do "in case..." type of situation, but they lived with this idea basically. Ukraine had places where there were plenty of Russians, and places where basically Russia is loved like crazy, and they wanted to get those places. Obviously it doesn't make sense for Ukraine to give their lands to Russia, so this means both knew that they would be in a war one day or another.

This doesn't mean they knew when it would happen, but they definitely knew that one day it would happen. If you consider that as planned, then it was planned, but I would say being ready, and not planned. Planned means they aimed at doing this, being ready means they would if something happened but won't if that won't happen.

That is what I really can't stress enough why the sanctions failed, because world needs energy from Russia.

The ''west'' was not preparing for this, for sure, because the threat of war on the European continent was so unimaginable (at least in this part of Europe) that they completely ignored the threat. However, it's not just the European countries ignoring it, the countries that are big importers of grain from Ukraine and Russia also were caught off guard with Yemen and Egipt being at risk the most, but also China, who will not feel the issue that much, but still had huge imports of grain from Ukraine. However, whatever preparations Russia made for imminent sanctions, that does not mean that they won't be severely affected by Europe turning away from its oil and gas exports in the near future. Especially if Russia loses the annexed Ukrainian territory that is filled with natural resources.

Iran could have been doing better as well, and technically speaking it has been doing fine compared to places like Cuba or Venezuela, so I think your example is correct that it can't be done to bigger nations.

I have to say Russia is not even a "decent" nation, it is a huge one so trying to do it to them was a bad idea from the start and I get that, I understand that if you want to do sanctions to a huge nation, you are forgetting that the world needs a lot from that nation and this time it was energy, if you do that to any other nation, you would face some other problem but it is a problem nevertheless. That is what I really can't stress enough why the sanctions failed, because world needs energy from Russia.

Once again about the "huge". say - and for example the Congo - "a huge, great country"? Or, for example, Vietnam is a "huge country"? And Nigeria?
The first 2 countries - fully correspond to the "scale" of Russia in terms of population. Nigeria - exceeds 2 times Russia. Where is the greatness of Russia? In territory? I'll tell you a secret - 70% + of this territory IS NOT INVOLVED AT ALL, and ARE NOT OPENED !!! You didn't know? These territories are not suitable for life, there is nothing useful or strategically important there! So greatness is very "inflated"

Where is the greatness of Russia? In territory? I'll tell you a secret - 70% + of this territory IS NOT INVOLVED AT ALL, and ARE NOT OPENED !!! You didn't know? These territories are not suitable for life, there is nothing useful or strategically important there! So greatness is very "inflated"

The US and Eastern Europe has been criticizing the growing dependence on Russian fossil fuels for a long time. But Western Europe wanted to reduce American influence, and they believed that they can contain Russian aggression by being friendly. They miscalculated heavily, because Putin viewed friendliness as softness and invitation for more aggression.

I wouldn't say that Russia was fully prepared for sanctions. A significant part of their 600 billion reserves got frozen, because it was held in the west. Russia heavily relies on imported components for manufacturing nearly anything, so their military-industrial complex got hit very hard with sanctions.

Also, the full effect of sanctions will become clear in 1-2 years. But some of the Russian top officials already admitted that they didn't expect sanctions to be this harsh.

Of course, sanctions will affect Russia but that does not mean they are unprepared. Sanctions to date have not only damaged Russia, but also had a strong impact on Europe and the world. Europe is having terrible days because of high energy prices and what will happen if they are not powered in the coming years.

I think Russia has all the resources to stop european sanctions, the dependence of many european countries on russian gas and oil of course makes it better for them to be silent than to be strict, only a few countries are serious about putting pressure on russia with strict sanctions, but if strict sanctions are enforced i will sure Russia is ready and anticipated so that it will not have a significant impact.

Since the cold war, Russia's relationship with the west has always been delicate so much that i think they knew that a time may come when they may have to indulge in a show of strength with the West, so they have had to be prepared, and made themselves important to the power sector. Putin put Russia in a position where they almost seem indispensable, like they hold the world's power sector by the balls. They are almost too important now, sanctions cannot be fully implemented for the now, alternatives to power from Russia has to be made first for the effects of the sanctions to be swift.

Someone who plans to start a battle with someone prepares better than the person that the problems meet unprepared and unexpectedly.

 

You have stated the most obvious, that's actually what the OP is pointing out. Russia was more than ready for the sanctions before they execute the attack. They knew they possessed one of the world's necessity and European countries had their oil reliance grown since the last few years. That alone could be enough for Russia to withstand whatever economic sanctions the US or the European countries impose to them.
Though these sanctions their facing have affected them, but they have options to avoid the major effect of these sanctions.

Yes, there is an opinion that only an oil embargo can destroy the Russian economy.  It is from the sale of oil that Russia receives the main revenues to the state budget.

Oil prices do not depend on the natural season (winter or summer).  Oil is widely used for the manufacture of gasoline, as well as in the petrochemical industry. 

Are Western countries ready to impose an oil embargo? 

I don't have an answer to this question.  The United States declares its principled position to deprive the Russian Federation of all its oil and gas revenues.  However, the EU may have a different opinion on this matter. 

At the same time, in my opinion, the Russian Federation has huge problems.  First of all, it is the complete absence of a positive picture of the future of Russia and its citizens. 

Few people realize this now, but a social society can collapse faster than the country actually runs out of resources and serious economic problems begin.  People cannot live without hope. 

And psychologically, people break down faster than machine tools and machines.

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Oil and gas is the backbone of the Russian economy, as long as Europe dares to ban it Russia will quickly decline.
So far, Europe has issued a fifth round of sanctions against Russia, but none targeting Russian crude oil and gas. All claims to cut off gas supplies from Russia are only on paper and they have not found a solution. According to the statement, they will stop depending on Russian energy by 2027. That is actually quite far away.
 The US is a country that is less dependent on Russian oil, so it does not hesitate to stop importing from Russia, but that will also have an impact on the US.

I'm ready to disappoint you .. China, the USA, it's all "far-fetched", or is the result of what started not a month ago. I am a citizen of Ukraine, and for many years, since 2000, I worked in a company whose office was in Donetsk. So I inform you - since 2000 (and possibly earlier), Russia has been actively promoting the idea of ??a "Russian world" in Ukraine, especially in regions where most of the population was once resettled from the RSFSR on the territory of Ukraine, where before that, Soviet power destroyed the local population. Yes, you guessed it - these are today's territories where the virtual states of the DPR / LPR have been created. I am sure that the same work was carried out in Belarus, and possibly in other countries that were once part of the USSR. And all why? Because the insane Kremlin dwarf suddenly decided that he is the messiah, and must collect back all "the republics of the USSR and recreate it anew!". Those. revive the corpse, and create, from the forcibly assembled "republics" of a sort of Frankenstein monster. You laugh in vain! There was no USA and China, there was and is a crazy aging under-alpha male, with complexes not even of Napoleon, but of God! And all these "official" reasons for starting a new round of war against Ukraine, like joining NATO or threatening Russia, are bluff and fakes!

The sanctions have cracked. The United States suddenly allowed the supply of hardware for the Internet and telecom to Russia
https://europe-cities.com/2022/04/08/the-sanctions-have-cracked-the-united-states-suddenly-allowed-the-supply-of-hardware-for-the-internet-and-telecom-to-russia/
If it's not fake, then I find it very funny.

Well the Ukraine has Europe's third-largest shale gas reserves at 1.2 trillion cubic meters (tcm). There are two potentially large shale gas fields. The Yuzivska gas field located in Donetsk Oblast (province) and Kharkiv Oblast; and the Olesska gas field in Lviv Oblast and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.

Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine

Russia ...wants those Gas resources and they do not want the West to fund the development of those resources, because that will threaten their market share in Europe. The current conflict is not about Political influence.... but rather about "Money"

Europe should have reduced their dependency on Russian Oil and Gas, but it was convenient for them and it was a cheaper source for Oil and Gas.... but this conflict has hastened their efforts to do it now. (It was the kick in the butt that they needed)  ;)

I have heard that shale gas production brings great harm to the environment and agriculture, so many European countries do not produce this gas on their territory. They bought more of this gas from other countries, and in return they sold expensive gas production equipment.

The ''west'' was not preparing for this, for sure, because the threat of war on the European continent was so unimaginable (at least in this part of Europe) that they completely ignored the threat. However, it's not just the European countries ignoring it, the countries that are big importers of grain from Ukraine and Russia also were caught off guard with Yemen and Egipt being at risk the most, but also China, who will not feel the issue that much, but still had huge imports of grain from Ukraine. However, whatever preparations Russia made for imminent sanctions, that does not mean that they won't be severely affected by Europe turning away from its oil and gas exports in the near future. Especially if Russia loses the annexed Ukrainian territory that is filled with natural resources.

This isn't something they "planned", I mean of course they probably knew what they would do "in case..." type of situation, but they lived with this idea basically. Ukraine had places where there were plenty of Russians, and places where basically Russia is loved like crazy, and they wanted to get those places. Obviously it doesn't make sense for Ukraine to give their lands to Russia, so this means both knew that they would be in a war one day or another.

This doesn't mean they knew when it would happen, but they definitely knew that one day it would happen. If you consider that as planned, then it was planned, but I would say being ready, and not planned. Planned means they aimed at doing this, being ready means they would if something happened but won't if that won't happen.

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Russia had already predicted the war and realized what sanctions could be imposed on it.
And maybe that's why he's ready to face all the sanctions.
It is the countries that have imposed sanctions, but in some cases, they will be also face problems.
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This is because Russia has the power to suppress Europe, as we know that Russia is a producer of oil and gas which is supplied to Europe, Europe's dependence on Russian gas and oil has made Europe powerless by whatever Russia did, even a few years ago when Russia raised gas and oil prices significantly but European countries could only follow suit.

I'm sure when Russia dared to invade Ukraine then they already knew bad things including sanctions from Europe, but because Russia is an oil and gas producing country and has good relations with China, they are not worried if Europe imposes sanctions, and at this time Russia is not too bothered with sanctions because Europe can never be firm on Russia.

For sure Russia didn't expected such a severe reaction from the EU and the US. EU is overdependent on Russian oil and gas, and yet they are talking about completely phasing out Russian purchases. I don't know how practical is this, but if implemented it can severely impact Russia. The good thing for Russia is that oil and natural gas prices are at all time high, and they are still profiting out from their oil/gas exports despite the steep discounts. And diverting the supplies to China is going to take a lot of time, and I am not even sure whether it is possible.

Who funded Russia? Are they not the Wests? After Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, the Wests are still buying oils and fossil fuels from Russia. They showed they depended on Russia when there are many available alternatives. West can be said to be the cause of the war. I expect all imports from Russia into Western nations should have ceased since many years ago. Then, Russia would have not have such power and weaponry they have today.

“There’s just no way even OPEC+ and even combined Iran and Venezuela could make up for it,” Vandana Hari, founder of energy intelligence firm Vanda Insights, told CNBC’s.”

Who funded Russia? Are they not the Wests? After Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, the Wests are still buying oils and fossil fuels from Russia. They showed they depended on Russia when there are many available alternatives. West can be said to be the cause of the war. I expect all imports from Russia into Western nations should have ceased since many years ago. Then, Russia would have not have such power and weaponry they have today.

The bitter truth is everybody only care about their own interest. Russian fuel is cheap and is located right next to the EU which makes it reliable too. You said there are many alternatives but can you show us some of them? Don't you think there are plenty of minds that are sitting there to find a good alternative to Russian fuel? Why didn't they find that yet?

Look what experts say:

Maybe Russia also calculated but these reactions in my opinion are beyond their calculations. The fighting situation shows no sign of abating and EU countries are planning to reduce their energy dependence on Russia earlier than expected to make sanctions more effective.

The redirection of oil and gas supplies to China and Asian countries will take some time, but Europe's search for alternative Russian sources remains unresolved. I don't know how they will do it, but now I see the EU as deadlocked as Russia if the two sides stop cooperating.

Of course, Europe did not expect such actions from Russia. Russia began to prepare for large-scale sanctions after 2014, although then they were very small compared to 2022. I think they prepared not quite correctly, because all external assets were blocked, which greatly broke its economy.

No option for the EU would be better than Russia, The German government also recently announced that it will stop importing Russian oil from the end of this year and stop relying on gas according to the European route. But they never mentioned a replacement, who would replace the Russian oil supply for them. It seems that all they are saying is to intimidate Russia, they cannot find an alternative.

Europe will feel the heat also, at this point I just see this war as comic relief. Funny propaganda everywhere, the west dancing with Ukraine's vulnerability, EU is now asking its citizens to work from home three days a week to reduce reliance on Russia energy. Instead of finding ways to stop the war, the EU countries are running from pillar to post to punish Russia. Now its has come to sanctioning themselves. When you stay home for three days in a week you burn more gas in heating the home. When you drive slow, you pollute the environment the more.

war brought havoc to all countries, at the beginning of the war almost all countries imposed sanctions on Russia, but the proof is not Russia who has experienced the impact of the sanctions given, in fact other countries have experienced the impact of Russian sanctions, even America itself is now experiencing the impact what is extraordinary, the country that used to impose sanctions on Russia, now the country is silent, and seems to be running away from their responsibilities, it is countries with weak economies that receive a huge impact, like Indonesia, where oil prices are now soaring.

Europe will feel the heat also, at this point I just see this war as comic relief. Funny propaganda everywhere, the west dancing with Ukraine's vulnerability, EU is now asking its citizens to work from home three days a week to reduce reliance on Russia energy. Instead of finding ways to stop the war, the EU countries are running from pillar to post to punish Russia. Now its has come to sanctioning themselves. When you stay home for three days in a week you burn more gas in heating the home. When you drive slow, you pollute the environment the more.

war brought havoc to all countries, at the beginning of the war almost all countries imposed sanctions on Russia, but the proof is not Russia who has experienced the impact of the sanctions given, in fact other countries have experienced the impact of Russian sanctions, even America itself is now experiencing the impact what is extraordinary, the country that used to impose sanctions on Russia, now the country is silent, and seems to be running away from their responsibilities, it is countries with weak economies that receive a huge impact, like Indonesia, where oil prices are now soaring.

Why is she the best choice? The fact that, at the discretion of a not quite adequate ruler, he can take and stop gas supplies in winter, violating the contractual terms? And this is not the first time! And what's more - after that, there are also ultimatums to change the supply chain and payment!
What is worse, for example, oil from Norway and gas from suppliers from Asia? Or SGP hubs in the Baltics or Portugal? Risk diversification in today's situation is the best solution! Russia is a toxic country, a toxic and unpredictable supplier - do you really want to work and have a relationship with such a person?

Why is she the best choice? The fact that, at the discretion of a not quite adequate ruler, he can take and stop gas supplies in winter, violating the contractual terms? And this is not the first time! And what's more - after that, there are also ultimatums to change the supply chain and payment!
What is worse, for example, oil from Norway and gas from suppliers from Asia? Or SGP hubs in the Baltics or Portugal? Risk diversification in today's situation is the best solution! Russia is a toxic country, a toxic and unpredictable supplier - do you really want to work and have a relationship with such a person?

If the United States and Europe unilaterally issued sanctions even freezing Russia's foreign currency reserves, there was no reason that Russia could not do the same. If a man holds a knife on your neck, if you have the opportunity, are you against?.

I am not from the country in the war and of course I don't support this war, I just hope it ends soon. But I believe there must be some reasons for this war, Russia is also a country that is facing many difficulties when the world turns back to them. We are not politicians so we cannot know what their calculations are, all we know is just through the media and everything has been controlled.

Russia supply the world with most of their resources and many countries including europe depend on Russia for natural resources, so imposing sanctions on Russia is just like planing your trap. Putin was prepared for all the drama we are seeing now that is why it doesn't bother him at all. The war has not ended and Russia is planning to launch more attack in Ukraine despite the sanctions from NATO countries and the European Union.

Russia supply the world with most of their resources and many countries including europe depend on Russia for natural resources, so imposing sanctions on Russia is just like planing your trap. Putin was prepared for all the drama we are seeing now that is why it doesn't bother him at all. The war has not ended and Russia is planning to launch more attack in Ukraine despite the sanctions from NATO countries and the European Union.

Russia supply the world with most of their resources and many countries including europe depend on Russia for natural resources, so imposing sanctions on Russia is just like planing your trap. Putin was prepared for all the drama we are seeing now that is why it doesn't bother him at all. The war has not ended and Russia is planning to launch more attack in Ukraine despite the sanctions from NATO countries and the European Union.

US national debt
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
America built the most powerful economy in the world because it bought resources and the best specialists in the world with printed dollars.
For many years, Russia was a colony that sold its resources cheaply, and now these sanctions hit the European economy even more painfully.

For many years, Russia was a colony that sold its resources cheaply, and now these sanctions hit the European economy even more painfully.

And what about Russia? Quality of life in Russia? Where do people live better, in France, Germany, Switzerland,  Netherland or in Russia? Majority of Russians have a low quality of life, there isn't good life outside of Moscow and Saint Peterburg, am I wrong? Only these two cities, especially Moscow, are good.

Russia Was Prepared to Withstand Sanctions. Why Wasn't Europe Prepared to Impose
Because Europeans don't want to leave their comfort zone, they prefer to stick with what's tried and works well and they are very slow to react and need very, very serious reasons to do some job. Probably, they weren't really expecting that.

So what? Russia always had a low quality of life when compared to Western Europe. The main reason is that despite being a major producer of the natural resources, Russia has never tried to become a manufacturer of finished goods. The corrupt politicians and oligarchs have benefitted from this trade and they have looted the national wealth over the past decades. And ironically, the same oligarchs are the hardest hit from the sanctions. Their houses and yachts are being seized. Ordinary Russians are not affected as much as these oligarchs.

Russia supply the world with most of their resources and many countries including europe depend on Russia for natural resources, so imposing sanctions on Russia is just like planing your trap. Putin was prepared for all the drama we are seeing now that is why it doesn't bother him at all. The war has not ended and Russia is planning to launch more attack in Ukraine despite the sanctions from NATO countries and the European Union.

So what? Russia always had a low quality of life when compared to Western Europe. The main reason is that despite being a major producer of the natural resources, Russia has never tried to become a manufacturer of finished goods. The corrupt politicians and oligarchs have benefitted from this trade and they have looted the national wealth over the past decades. And ironically, the same oligarchs are the hardest hit from the sanctions. Their houses and yachts are being seized. Ordinary Russians are not affected as much as these oligarchs.

I agree with you. Now only oligarchs are losing their property, ordinary people do not suffer losses. I think that the Russian government took the right measures and was able to protect the population of Russia. The situation turned out to be quite the opposite -the one who invented them suffers from sanctions. Why is this happening everyone understands.

I think, Putin is regretting for the bad decision he took to attacked Ukraine resources which other countries are not happy about the attacked that happened few months ago that put Ukraine economy into trouble. Russian citizens are really feeling the sanction NATO imposed to Russian that is making Russian government to lose billions every week that is making their companies to start experiencing losses from their distribution both domestic and international. Based on the intervention of other countries, I believe Russian will definitely embrace peace to withdraw the launch they are planning to launch to Ukraine resources.

this is interesting to see what will happen for the next couple of months. both sides are heavily losing their weaponry as well as its people. maybe, is it time to put down their ego and talk peacefully. i am thinking that zelensky is just waitng for putin to change his mind and stop this war. he is amenable for whatever will be better for both countries.
so yeah, hopefully we will see some changes in the next couple of months.