Bitcoin Forum

 By this time last year, China had been loyal patrons in the purchase of US natural gas but seem to lose interest as they have located a better, closer source. The US- China energy trade deal, entered in Jan 2020, after the trade war between Washington DC and China in 2018 during Trump's administration, entailed a pledge from Xi's govt to buy about $200billion worth of US goods and a $52.4 billion in energy.  
 China's crude oil imports from Russia soared by 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as their top supplier. Could China's reason for switching to Russia from the US as a result of closeness of boundaries or is there an ulterior motive?
 While the US are aggrieved that they've been snobbed, Russia has a lot to be grateful for as the 30% discount offered to the Chinese government looks to be piling his coffers despite the sanctions from the West aimed at crippling their economy. In May, the Kremlin raked in around $20bn just from the exportation of oil alone! https://toutiaoqushi.com/us/articles/1524e08b7865856c/

If the amount of oil imported to China was substantial, this might've just been a way for China to increase the strength of the Yuan to increase their earnings from their exports market and solve issues they might be having with covid and their economy (like the housing market).

China is still the second largest holder of US government bonds too from what I could find (holding about $1tr). This could also just be taking advantage of Russia's situation too - if you're being offered the same thing at a 30% discount, it'd make sense to go with that.

Russia is a major player in the world economic system. It would be very difficult to displace them in the global oil and gas market. They produce oil and gas at a very cheap rate and can sell them at a discounted price. China is also a big global economic player that cannot be sanctioned for their transactions with Russia. China and India would keep doing business with Russia and there is nothing US and its allies would do about it. Even smaller countries are still buying cheap oil and gas from Russia secretly. For now it seems the sanctions on Russia is having more negative impact on Europe and US than the sanctioned nation.     

With this situation, I can't blame those countries who are still buying gas from Russia.
Because for some of these countries, they are only thinking about the welfare of their people.
So if they can buy oil and gas at a discounted rate, why not? And if it is relatively near their jurisdiction, they would definitely buy from Russia.
Just think that a lot of countries globally have increased their fuel prices, and most of their people can't cope up with this price increase.
Most haven't recovered yet from this pandemic crisis and now, people are experiencing this bloated gas prices.
So for me, you can't blame these countries secretly buying from Russia's oil and gas.

"For now" is the key word here. Oil and gas prices will drop when countries will start producing more of them. And Russia can't simply sell all the oil and especially gas that it was selling to Europe - there's no infrastructure or demand among its friends for that. Combine this with the discounts they have to make to make their oil more attractive, and you'll see that in next 2-3 years Russian fossil fuels revenue is going to drop. And that would be very painful, because that's 50-60% of Russian budget, as they don't have any significant high technology or service exports.

this also happen to my country in indonesia that we buy oil from russian with discounted rate it because the high oil price we cannot like make the price goes up many will suffer from it and there is news about it  :-[

the sanction and after covid pandemic high inflation rate and much more make small country or development country hard to move

Is there an ulterior motive? Not only yes but the ulterior motive here is definitely the main motive. Everything else is secondary. China has been acting as the damage controller for Russia. China has significantly cushioned the impact of the various sanctions imposed on Russia. In a way, China is one of the reasons why Russia is still able to continue with its invasion even if it already suffered a lot of failures. China's help sustains it.

Europe does not have the opportunity to wait 2-3 years for the sanctions to take effect on Russia, because it will not be able to winter the coming winter without energy supplies from Russia.

Where I live gas prices have basically doubled during the last year and things are probably going to get worse during the winter, so if a government that is not involved directly or indirectly in the war can take advantage of the situation and get cheap gas then I am not surprised they take advantage of the opportunity given to them, after all most of the economies of the world are in a bad shape and getting a discount in such a strategical resource can be critical to slowdown the inflation rate in their country.

Yes, almost all over the world there is inflation and the global economy is also currently not doing well,
when the price of oil goes up without realizing it will cause a domino effect and make others also go up,
If conditions continue like that, it will certainly make a small country go bankrupt

US has a lot more to grieve about if 30% discount is correct because that means China would expand its economy more and increase its distance from the Western competitors. In other words the shrinking US economy is going to shrink even more since the production cost in China would be a lot less now.
This could be the reason why US economy is slowly falling apart these days.

Some countries aren't opting to produce more. Both the EU and US have committed to transforming their energy sector into green energy so it isn't clear that some countries will revert back to traditional based energy sources. Germany is reverting back to coal, but they are a singular case. The US in particular haven't been increasing their oil production, and green energy forms are undeveloped so they can't produce the energy they need through greener methods.

Russia can still sell to China and India. Ruble is somehow one of the best performing currencies as of late. It's solely based on energy.

Heh, there is no halting of the energy trade at all, be warned. It's merely China switching to cheaper alternative supplies.

Ulterior motive? Nah. We all those kind of decisions strategic thinking, and those are done for the interest of their own country, not for the pure undermining of another one.

After the war between Ukraine and Russia started situsation changed and especially in many countries where they were buying gas and oil from Russia. But when this happened from the Russian side china tried by still there a big gas buyer from Russia because of relations I guess they can even buy gas from Russia with better conditions than before, in other words, china got a better place to buy gas so they will not focus os the USA anymore because of their relations with the Russian government. I think this situation can make some bad effects on the USA and Europe side.

Increasing the strength of Yuan will not make it attractive for trading with other countries. Most economist also have the same opinion, they have to maintain its value low for every country to trade with them. Same with Russia's  ruble they have to maintain its value so  trading gas and oil from them will continue. And to make this happen they have to invest somewhere outside build relationship to other countries.

Its not just motive to circumvent the sanctions but build relationship like how  China did to different countries through the BRI. They invest everywhere, Russia offer loans too  just recently they provided loan to Sri Lanka.

I mean it would make a ton more sense right? Russia is right there, whereas USA is all the way on the other side of the world. It would be much easier to just get those gas and energy or whatever really from Russia instead of any other nation. Plus with Russia in war, they are sanctioned and they  can't sell their gas to too many places, hence they would be willing to do even discounts to china as well.

This will result with China preferring Russian gas for a decade or longer and they will not care about American politics. Sure China and USA had a "trade war" before, but this would be like trade break up :D I know that sounds silly, but China just found a hotter and sexier gas provider, and they want to go with that.

There  is no reason for China to buy overpriced hydrocarbons from the United States, after the recent comment from Joe Biden regarding Taiwan. China is very strict with their territorial rights, and they never take these comments lightly. On top of that, Russia is ready to supply LNG and crude oil at heavily discounted prices. Who in their right minds expect the Chinese to continue with their American purchases, when they have a much cheaper and friendly alternative available? As of now, China remains one of the beneficiaries from the sanctions against Russia and Belarus.

Do not remind me - whose phrase "I am not interested in Poland, the Baltic countries, these European dwarfs, the industrial basis of Europe - Germany, France, Austria"? I did not quote verbatim, but as accurately as possible in meaning :) So, these "dwarfs", for your understanding, will easily endure this and other winters, and of course without Russian gas. And those who sold the interests of their countries and allowed Gazprom to monopolize their markets-retribution came, yes yes! But I think the people of Germany will now be more careful in their choice of their leaders, and now they will choose not the Kremlin's bedding, but really strong ones, about German politicians!
And I am sure that the next 1-2 years will be very difficult for Germany, the decline in industrial production, perhaps even the loss of the status of a European leader. That is why now the euro has fallen so much, and most likely will continue to fall. BUT ... you have to pay for all crimes! This will be a very strong lesson for Germany! :)

Ok, so China is getting cheaper gas from Russia with huge discount due to sanctions.  Fairly safe to say the US gas/oil sales that have dried up in China will find a new home in Europe as gas/oil supplies there received from Russia are drying up.  The energy hustle don't stop.

Exactly ! Some really joyfully clap their hands and yell "brotherly China is saving Russia" :) But they don't understand that the market has simply been redistributed, where now the terrorist country is leaving the European gas market, and is trying to sell unnecessary gas. This is used to the fullest, China. And in such a way that the saying "You don't do that with friends" is quite suitable here :) China is forcing Russia to lower the price to the level that China wanted. And Russia cannot refuse China, but in fact the "big brother"!
And at this time, Russia, which even economically (with gas) tried to terrorize its friends in Germany and France, is quietly and calmly replacing the United States with its own gas, and a significant event already occurred a month ago - the volumes of gas sold by the United States on the EU market exceeded the volumes sales of gas from a terrorist country.

Sanctions pushed the cost of russian down apprroximately 20%. Creating an arbitrage opportunity for buyers and resellers of russian oil to increase their profit margins. We know that india is officially reported as engaging in the practice. Other nations could as well. 20% reduction in oil prices below market value is simply too attractive to ignore.

Oil in the united states is demonstrably more expensive. The higher cost is stacked on top of shipping fees to transport american oil abroad making US oil prohibitively more expensive. Current market circumstances reflect russian oil becoming cheaper while american oil trends in the opposite direction.

Increasing oil production in the USA could reduce prices. But there is controversy as to drilling permits and what the policy around them should be. As well as other circumstances contributing to negative market conditions.

Wonder if some warhawks in the senate are considering another invasion of a nation? I mean the Iraq oil is famously given to american companies already, and that means all the oil sold from there, would be ending up back in the USA banks, and USA economy. If they invade another place like that, then maybe they would have another profit. They are notoriously hating Iran as we know it, and that nation is a hardcore islamic nation, maybe they will say they are bringing "democracy" or "freedom" or whatever BS they keep telling people, and get their oil? I do not know, but that seems like a danger to all of the world. An oil hungry USA, is never a good thing to anyone, they could kill hundreds of thousands of innocent people to get their hands of oil, and then make hundred movies about it.

Iran is not going to be a cakewalk like Iraq. They have facilities to enrich Uranium and it is rumored that they are having nuclear weapons. And given the NATO involvement in Ukraine, in case the Americans invade Iran then in all probability the Russians will provide advanced weaponry to that country. The conflict will get out of control and in the end we will be having the 3rd World War. Anyway, any potential invasion of Iran will ruin the American economy. The misadventures in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya added around $10 trillion in debt to the American exchequer. The cost for invading Iran will be much higher.

Luckily US is so much weaker than Iran to attack it. As CENTCOM commander said to The Newyorker, "Iran has already reached overmatch". Besides the plan to invade Iran has been on US regime's desk for 43 years, the 20% US casualties in operation Eagle Claw is still a nightmare for POTUSes ever since Jimmy Carter, and that's without Iranians even lifting a finger. The memories are also renewed every now and then like the biggest ballistic missile attack against United States in history on January 2020 that wiped out 2 US bases. ;)

Haven't laughed so hard in a long time :)
Iran has uranium enrichment centrifuges, but that doesn't mean they have ballistic missiles. If they are not there, then the application will be local, and in fact it will be a tracing-paper with "Russia's super victories", well, or as normal people call such a situation "shoot themselves in the foot."

"and there are rumors that they have nuclear weapons" - they say that chickens are milked! Folk wisdom for such cases :)


"The Russians will provide this country with modern weapons." - here I just roll on the floor, and laugh out loud  ;D ;D ;D
Those. miserable Führer of terrorists, flew to Iran, to beg from Iran for UAVs, which Russia itself cannot do, and those that did, they are easily knocked down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Do you have a state of dissonance is the norm? :)

"greated the debt to the American treasury by about 10 trillion dollars." - and you are not aware that 10 trillion for the largest economy, whose currency is international, and in fact there is the blood of the world economy, is this a trifle? Now military-industrial complex enterprises are starting to operate in the United States, which will fulfill state orders to ensure Lend-Lease (for the next victory over fascism and Nazism, as in 1941), and will easily "digest" all the printed "extra" trillions of dollars? Yes, and all countries help the dollar, "eating" extra dollars! The same India helps to do this by selling and buying technology, equipment, etc. for dollars :)

I don't think I can predict what will happen, but I doubt the United States will allow its sales to China to decline. It would be an easy way for Russia to gain a stronger foothold in the Chinese market. And if this were to happen as we expect, then America's petroleum industry would not be able to rest on its laurels. The need for China and other countries around the world to continue using American gas will become even more apparent.

The fact that the US has established itself in so many places around the world means that our exports and imports to other countries are likely to be affected by US military and political decisions.

Why you speak about things you have no knowledge of is beyond me.
Iran has the largest and most diverse number of missiles and unmanned vehicles (UAVs, UUVs, UGVs, etc.) in the world. The military technologies are so advanced that we are literary defining what modern warfare is. In fact the "unconventional" warfare Ukrainians are using against Russia is copied from us. But of course just like altcoins, it is a poor copy of the original. Add to that the lack of independence and you can see why Russia is still progressing instead of having been defeated a long time ago.

An unconventional, that is, a hybrid war in Ukraine was just unleashed by Russia by attacking this country. Russia at first denied the fact that their military had seized the Crimean peninsula, but then they had to admit it only for the reason that there was nowhere to go. But the occupation of part of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions was brazenly denied for eight years, until they made an obvious large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia does not progress in the war with Ukraine, its military power and equipment are destroyed in Ukraine, and the soldiers are completely demoralized and try to desert from the army by any means and often injure themselves for this purpose. During the five months of the war, Russia has lost about 70 percent of its army and armored vehicles and is now unable to attack and is gradually moving to the defensive. Its military defeat in this war is obvious.

That is dirty but still conventional.

That is part truth, part propaganda.
The problem with superpowers of the past age is that their military strategies are stuck in WWII and they have no experience in real battlefield. This is why unconventional warfare works best against them since it is just "un"conventional in their definition, otherwise it is pretty much conventional. They also have no idea what to do against these new tactics.

For example check how US attacked Afghanistan and how they were defeated. They were fighting cavemen (literary) and tried bombing their positions that were actually strongholds in mountains. Quadrillions of dollars spent on aircraft, navy, missiles, radars, ... meant nothing.

Same with Russia. They poured tanks in Ukraine and didn't even think about bringing enough fuel. Not to mention that hitting the front runner with a hand held missile launcher halted their progress. They also had no good plans to defend against the shittiest UAVs that Turkey and US build and give Ukraine.
When I say shitty that's an understatement. They are so weak that we regularly capture (https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/10/01/1201640/irgc-releases-first-photos-of-captured-american-drone) or shoot them down (https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iranian-forces-down-america-s-heaviest-and-most-advanced-drone-180-million-mq-4c-triton-lost). (There is even a big museum of all kinds of US aircraft that we have seized or shot over the past 4 decades). In other words if Russia wasn't so behind in technology, all they had to do was to capture these $170 million drones and change the targets of their hellfire missiles.

That doesn't mean no progress or 70% loss though. That's the propaganda part which is very unrealistic.

In my opinion Russia could only be defeated if NATO wasn't fighting a proxy war with Russia trying to recreate the misery US had in Afghanistan for Russia in Ukraine. I'm certain that NATO will prolong this war. It's evident from the type and quality of the weapons they give Ukraine like the missiles that are all very short range!

Not to mention that they can not help more than this either. For example Turkey is already out of parts to build its shitty UAVs to send to Ukraine and they need to import them since they are incapable of domestic manufacturing!!! US storages are getting empty too. I recently read that their manufacturers need another month and another billion to build only 100 more of those shitty UAVs!

Iran may not be a cake walk but we all know it will be an "option" for some people in the USA. There is just way too much money riding on military right now and that means they will have to just use that money. Using the insane 800 billion budget to do something that will save american interests and make them money and allowing them to get cheaper gas prices for all the people would call to some people. Obviously its not going to be easy, hell its even unlikely to happen, but you cant tell me its zero chance neither.

Did you know Iran faced so much trouble when Dr Musadaq took the charge and wanted to nationalise the oil reserves.
The regime change has changed the history of Iran and Then Dr Musadaq passed away in the house arrest. Later Uk left Iran and so does USA. They are in better shape now. But history goes long ago

$800 billion is a joke compared to the $10 trillion US spent over the past years trying to prepare to invade Iran which only resulted in tens of thousands of US troops coming back in body bags.

Although we can't predict what is going to happen in the long run, we can say with confidence that now and in foreseeable future the chance is definitely zero.
Basically the dream of invading Iran started with Carter in 1979 and he still has nightmares about his pathetic losses in Operation Eagle Claw. That dream died for good with Bush in 2001. Then Trump tried to stupidly revive that dream and ended up with heavy losses (over 5000 US casualties).

I can walk you through 43 years of history enumerating all US defeats during that time if you liked. :P

China's motive could be to reduce its dependence with the United States, and avoid the same situation Germany has with Russia, which is a stupid situation. Germany delivered, and supplied weapons to Ukraine, stepping into a war by proxy, then Germany complains about the low supply of natural gas coming from Russia? It might be a cold winter in Germany if their government continues its war by proxy.

Why look for complex motives in depth when there is a simple motive on the surface - the price. China is the most energy-deficient country in the world, its energy demand is huge and greater than that of Germany, so China is interested in any kind of energy resources, especially if they are offered at a good discount.

And Russia just found their new source to fund their military strength.
No country can snob a 30 percent discount, it's way huge of money we are talking here. Even if the US thinks this is unfair China have their own decisions on who will offer best. They are the consumer, like customers so it'd better be with quality and quantity which they are also good at. (Quantity)
Ulterior motive? No, I don't think so, it's just the cheapest you can get. Just practical.
US are the ones who decided a sanction, so if they want, they could counter the offer.

Russia is willing to sell their Natural Gas and all the supplies to any nation which is willing to actually get in touch with them and buy it since most of the nations are frowning upon the imports from Russia. At the same time :
💡They are selling the natural gas at a much Cheaper price as compared to US.

Therefore I do think that if China can get a discount, they would ofcourse buy from their allies, Russia, they haven't done much to condemn their actions in the Ukraine as well, therefore it's not that bad it's making their relationships stronger.

That could be the reason, and a more practical reason at that, BUT considering the geo-political situation between China and Taiwan, and Taiwan's "protector" the United States, I believe China might be preparing itself for"something". It might be the "Black Swan" of this current market cycle.

"Complex motives?" Nah, China is doing what China always does, taking the opportunity when is there. They do not fear an invasion from the RF (I am not sure they understand fully that risk, but the fact is they ignore it) so why not buying cheap when it is available? Who know, maybe they will be the new Germany and make the "smart" move of making their economy depend on the will of Adolf Putin.


A gas shutdown would cost the RF 228 USD million... that is per day - and before you say something silly, that cannot be re-routed to China, there is no infrastructure. That would be 20 Billion for 3 months until spring kills the leverage.

You have a very naïve idea of the importance of the RF and a very poor understanding of the resources that Europe can mobilise in a war economy. Your dream of "freezing Europe" is a simple idea for a simple mind. The EU did not want to revive the coal and nuclear energy sources, but if it has to happen, it will. I guess that the world will need to afford another bad year for climate change.

These  are the countries that could be affected the worse, just for context:

- Austria, 20% of energy from gas, all currently from RF.   - total problem: 20% of the energy
- Slovakia, Hungary, 25% of their energy, mostly from RF.  - total problem: 20% of the energy
- Germany, 27% of their energy from gas, but only 55% from RF. - total problem: 13% of their energy.

And the rest is even less. I do not want to minimise the issue, but this looks more like having the heating on at 19 C instead of at 23??

Germany still has coal and nuclear, France has nuclear power for half Europe, the south of Europe does not care about RF gas. Economic problems? There will be, there are always. I am sure the US thanks Adolf Putin everyday.

Can Europe wait? I do not see why not, it is much better than having Adolf Putin thinking that he can threaten with an invasion.

You seem to not realize that a gas shutdown doesn't cause Russia to lose any income at all. Why not? They already lost the income through the sanctions. But if they didn't, the sanctions are a bunch of double-talk. But if the sanctions are real, why should they continue to pump gas for nothing? The sanctions even keep them from getting parts for the pumping machinery. They almost don't have any choice.

But if you say that the sanctions didn't have anything to do with purchasing gas from Russia, but were only designed for other things, like grain, there you are probably right. Russia should have kept the gas flowing, but they should require ten times the cost to make up for damages the sanctions have done in other areas.

Russia doesn't need European trade at all. They are big enough - especially if you include Siberia - that they are a world unto themselves. World trade simply benefits Russia and the rest of the world in various ways. But Russia doesn't need it. In fact, there is basically only ONE natural resource Russia needs >>> more people >>> to work the lands that belong to Russia. Putin is starting to fix that by offering free Siberian land for homesteading.

The Ukraine war is simply Russia slapping an annoying mosquito that has been bugging her for the last decade or so.

8)

EU did not a good role to stop the war - they just wanted to weaken Russia and all of them failed.
Now they are all in trouble - Biden have to face midterm election soon and he is in trouble. This is one of the biggest mistake the NATO allies did. Let's see what happens next.

We have so many gas and oil supplies in other continent. If we should ask of the country that produces the highest oil the world i will mention European and African continent. Because African many of the little countries that is attached to the some countries label as giant of Africa country is also have little quantity of oil. So if country another country buy or supply gas for, is of hyping their gas. I think the best solution is to change a country were they buy oil so that the country will be saved

The best solution is to make peace with Russia and get back on track once again. Ask for apology and save the world from the crisis.
Although it is. not easy but then again - it's very important to be in better situation than this.

...very briefly, one piece of news, easily verifiable: production, dada, not sale, namely gas PRODUCTION, in Russia has fallen by more than 25%. The process of conservation of wells has begun. These are billions of lost dollars. And it's still the EU has not abandoned oil and gas, from a terrorist country, even by 10% :)
Well, the "icing on the cake" - at the moment, Russia does not have the technology for the re-entry of previously mothballed wells. But even if someone suddenly shows pity and sells to them (and the probability of this is actually 0), this is a VERY expensive complex and time-consuming project! You can't get up in the morning and "get the plug out of the well", this is approximately commensurate with new drilling. By the way - drilling technologies to depths of 500-1000 meters in Russia ... also NO! Greatness in Russian it is!  ;D

Are you talking nonsense again? The decrease in gas production is not associated with the costly process of well conservation, because gas is not oil. You can easily screw on the valve and then just as easily unscrew it back. And the increase in gas prices due to its shortage in Europe more than compensated for the decline in production. Gazprom produces less, but earns more.

Don't be too hard on DrBeer. He simply doesn't have enough experience to know how to think, yet. But if he doesn't join the voices from Hell, he might make it.

Sound From Hell In Siberia:
Search on "Russians hear voices in their deep drilling."


8)

Now china is ready to attack Taiwan and USA representaive is there to support Taiwan
The represetative  who went to Taiwan is 80+ years old.  In our country - people don't cross 70 years of age and at that age of 80 they are mostly unable to walk and she went there with the heels on and supported them. What a contrast.