US Gas sales to China dries up as Ukraine war halts Energy trade

[Hydrogen]

Sanctions pushed the cost of russian down apprroximately 20%. Creating an arbitrage opportunity for buyers and resellers of russian oil to increase their profit margins. We know that india is officially reported as engaging in the practice. Other nations could as well. 20% reduction in oil prices below market value is simply too attractive to ignore.

Oil in the united states is demonstrably more expensive. The higher cost is stacked on top of shipping fees to transport american oil abroad making US oil prohibitively more expensive. Current market circumstances reflect russian oil becoming cheaper while american oil trends in the opposite direction.

Increasing oil production in the USA could reduce prices. But there is controversy as to drilling permits and what the policy around them should be. As well as other circumstances contributing to negative market conditions.

[1714837304]

1714837304

[1714837304]

1714837304

[1714837304]

1714837304

[Captain Corporate]

Wonder if some warhawks in the senate are considering another invasion of a nation? I mean the Iraq oil is famously given to american companies already, and that means all the oil sold from there, would be ending up back in the USA banks, and USA economy. If they invade another place like that, then maybe they would have another profit. They are notoriously hating Iran as we know it, and that nation is a hardcore islamic nation, maybe they will say they are bringing "democracy" or "freedom" or whatever BS they keep telling people, and get their oil? I do not know, but that seems like a danger to all of the world. An oil hungry USA, is never a good thing to anyone, they could kill hundreds of thousands of innocent people to get their hands of oil, and then make hundred movies about it.

[Sithara007]

Wonder if some warhawks in the senate are considering another invasion of a nation? I mean the Iraq oil is famously given to american companies already, and that means all the oil sold from there, would be ending up back in the USA banks, and USA economy. If they invade another place like that, then maybe they would have another profit. They are notoriously hating Iran as we know it, and that nation is a hardcore islamic nation, maybe they will say they are bringing "democracy" or "freedom" or whatever BS they keep telling people, and get their oil? I do not know, but that seems like a danger to all of the world. An oil hungry USA, is never a good thing to anyone, they could kill hundreds of thousands of innocent people to get their hands of oil, and then make hundred movies about it.

Iran is not going to be a cakewalk like Iraq. They have facilities to enrich Uranium and it is rumored that they are having nuclear weapons. And given the NATO involvement in Ukraine, in case the Americans invade Iran then in all probability the Russians will provide advanced weaponry to that country. The conflict will get out of control and in the end we will be having the 3rd World War. Anyway, any potential invasion of Iran will ruin the American economy. The misadventures in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya added around $10 trillion in debt to the American exchequer. The cost for invading Iran will be much higher.

[pooya87]

They are notoriously hating Iran as we know it, and that nation is a hardcore islamic nation, maybe they will say they are bringing "democracy" or "freedom" or whatever BS they keep telling people, and get their oil? I do not know, but that seems like a danger to all of the world.

Luckily US is so much weaker than Iran to attack it. As CENTCOM commander said to The Newyorker, "Iran has already reached overmatch". Besides the plan to invade Iran has been on US regime's desk for 43 years, the 20% US casualties in operation Eagle Claw is still a nightmare for POTUSes ever since Jimmy Carter, and that's without Iranians even lifting a finger. The memories are also renewed every now and then like the biggest ballistic missile attack against United States in history on January 2020 that wiped out 2 US bases.

[DrBeer]

Iran is not going to be a cakewalk like Iraq. They have facilities to enrich Uranium and it is rumored that they are having nuclear weapons. And given the NATO involvement in Ukraine, in case the Americans invade Iran then in all probability the Russians will provide advanced weaponry to that country. The conflict will get out of control and in the end we will be having the 3rd World War. Anyway, any potential invasion of Iran will ruin the American economy. The misadventures in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya added around $10 trillion in debt to the American exchequer. The cost for invading Iran will be much higher.

Haven't laughed so hard in a long time
Iran has uranium enrichment centrifuges, but that doesn't mean they have ballistic missiles. If they are not there, then the application will be local, and in fact it will be a tracing-paper with "Russia's super victories", well, or as normal people call such a situation "shoot themselves in the foot."

"and there are rumors that they have nuclear weapons" - they say that chickens are milked! Folk wisdom for such cases


"The Russians will provide this country with modern weapons." - here I just roll on the floor, and laugh out loud 
Those. miserable Führer of terrorists, flew to Iran, to beg from Iran for UAVs, which Russia itself cannot do, and those that did, they are easily knocked down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Do you have a state of dissonance is the norm?

"greated the debt to the American treasury by about 10 trillion dollars." - and you are not aware that 10 trillion for the largest economy, whose currency is international, and in fact there is the blood of the world economy, is this a trifle? Now military-industrial complex enterprises are starting to operate in the United States, which will fulfill state orders to ensure Lend-Lease (for the next victory over fascism and Nazism, as in 1941), and will easily "digest" all the printed "extra" trillions of dollars? Yes, and all countries help the dollar, "eating" extra dollars! The same India helps to do this by selling and buying technology, equipment, etc. for dollars

[$anounimus$]

Could China's reason for switching to Russia from the US as a result of closeness of boundaries or is there an ulterior motive?

I don't think I can predict what will happen, but I doubt the United States will allow its sales to China to decline. It would be an easy way for Russia to gain a stronger foothold in the Chinese market. And if this were to happen as we expect, then America's petroleum industry would not be able to rest on its laurels. The need for China and other countries around the world to continue using American gas will become even more apparent.

The fact that the US has established itself in so many places around the world means that our exports and imports to other countries are likely to be affected by US military and political decisions.

[pooya87]

Haven't laughed so hard in a long time
Iran has uranium enrichment centrifuges, but that doesn't mean they have ballistic missiles.

Why you speak about things you have no knowledge of is beyond me.
Iran has the largest and most diverse number of missiles and unmanned vehicles (UAVs, UUVs, UGVs, etc.) in the world. The military technologies are so advanced that we are literary defining what modern warfare is. In fact the "unconventional" warfare Ukrainians are using against Russia is copied from us. But of course just like altcoins, it is a poor copy of the original. Add to that the lack of independence and you can see why Russia is still progressing instead of having been defeated a long time ago.

[Argoo]

Haven't laughed so hard in a long time
Iran has uranium enrichment centrifuges, but that doesn't mean they have ballistic missiles.

Why you speak about things you have no knowledge of is beyond me.
Iran has the largest and most diverse number of missiles and unmanned vehicles (UAVs, UUVs, UGVs, etc.) in the world. The military technologies are so advanced that we are literary defining what modern warfare is. In fact the "unconventional" warfare Ukrainians are using against Russia is copied from us. But of course just like altcoins, it is a poor copy of the original. Add to that the lack of independence and you can see why Russia is still progressing instead of having been defeated a long time ago.

An unconventional, that is, a hybrid war in Ukraine was just unleashed by Russia by attacking this country. Russia at first denied the fact that their military had seized the Crimean peninsula, but then they had to admit it only for the reason that there was nowhere to go. But the occupation of part of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions was brazenly denied for eight years, until they made an obvious large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia does not progress in the war with Ukraine, its military power and equipment are destroyed in Ukraine, and the soldiers are completely demoralized and try to desert from the army by any means and often injure themselves for this purpose. During the five months of the war, Russia has lost about 70 percent of its army and armored vehicles and is now unable to attack and is gradually moving to the defensive. Its military defeat in this war is obvious.

[pooya87]

An unconventional, that is, a hybrid war in Ukraine was just unleashed by Russia by attacking this country.

That is dirty but still conventional.

Russia does not progress in the war with Ukraine, its military power and equipment are destroyed in Ukraine, and the soldiers are completely demoralized and try to desert from the army by any means and often injure themselves for this purpose. During the five months of the war, Russia has lost about 70 percent of its army and armored vehicles and is now unable to attack and is gradually moving to the defensive.

That is part truth, part propaganda.
The problem with superpowers of the past age is that their military strategies are stuck in WWII and they have no experience in real battlefield. This is why unconventional warfare works best against them since it is just "un"conventional in their definition, otherwise it is pretty much conventional. They also have no idea what to do against these new tactics.

For example check how US attacked Afghanistan and how they were defeated. They were fighting cavemen (literary) and tried bombing their positions that were actually strongholds in mountains. Quadrillions of dollars spent on aircraft, navy, missiles, radars, ... meant nothing.

Same with Russia. They poured tanks in Ukraine and didn't even think about bringing enough fuel. Not to mention that hitting the front runner with a hand held missile launcher halted their progress. They also had no good plans to defend against the shittiest UAVs that Turkey and US build and give Ukraine.
When I say shitty that's an understatement. They are so weak that we regularly capture or shoot them down. (There is even a big museum of all kinds of US aircraft that we have seized or shot over the past 4 decades). In other words if Russia wasn't so behind in technology, all they had to do was to capture these $170 million drones and change the targets of their hellfire missiles.

That doesn't mean no progress or 70% loss though. That's the propaganda part which is very unrealistic.

Its military defeat in this war is obvious.

In my opinion Russia could only be defeated if NATO wasn't fighting a proxy war with Russia trying to recreate the misery US had in Afghanistan for Russia in Ukraine. I'm certain that NATO will prolong this war. It's evident from the type and quality of the weapons they give Ukraine like the missiles that are all very short range!

Not to mention that they can not help more than this either. For example Turkey is already out of parts to build its shitty UAVs to send to Ukraine and they need to import them since they are incapable of domestic manufacturing!!! US storages are getting empty too. I recently read that their manufacturers need another month and another billion to build only 100 more of those shitty UAVs!

[Captain Corporate]

Iran may not be a cake walk but we all know it will be an "option" for some people in the USA. There is just way too much money riding on military right now and that means they will have to just use that money. Using the insane 800 billion budget to do something that will save american interests and make them money and allowing them to get cheaper gas prices for all the people would call to some people. Obviously its not going to be easy, hell its even unlikely to happen, but you cant tell me its zero chance neither.

[Cryptock]

Iran may not be a cake walk but we all know it will be an "option" for some people in the USA. There is just way too much money riding on military right now and that means they will have to just use that money. Using the insane 800 billion budget to do something that will save american interests and make them money and allowing them to get cheaper gas prices for all the people would call to some people. Obviously its not going to be easy, hell its even unlikely to happen, but you cant tell me its zero chance neither.

Did you know Iran faced so much trouble when Dr Musadaq took the charge and wanted to nationalise the oil reserves.
The regime change has changed the history of Iran and Then Dr Musadaq passed away in the house arrest. Later Uk left Iran and so does USA. They are in better shape now. But history goes long ago

[pooya87]

Iran may not be a cake walk but we all know it will be an "option" for some people in the USA. There is just way too much money riding on military right now and that means they will have to just use that money. Using the insane 800 billion budget to do something that will save american interests and make them money and allowing them to get cheaper gas prices for all the people would call to some people. Obviously its not going to be easy, hell its even unlikely to happen, but you cant tell me its zero chance neither.

$800 billion is a joke compared to the $10 trillion US spent over the past years trying to prepare to invade Iran which only resulted in tens of thousands of US troops coming back in body bags.

Although we can't predict what is going to happen in the long run, we can say with confidence that now and in foreseeable future the chance is definitely zero.
Basically the dream of invading Iran started with Carter in 1979 and he still has nightmares about his pathetic losses in Operation Eagle Claw. That dream died for good with Bush in 2001. Then Trump tried to stupidly revive that dream and ended up with heavy losses (over 5000 US casualties).

I can walk you through 43 years of history enumerating all US defeats during that time if you liked.

[Wind_FURY]

China's crude oil imports from Russia soared by 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as their top supplier. Could China's reason for switching to Russia from the US as a result of closeness of boundaries or is there an ulterior motive?

China's motive could be to reduce its dependence with the United States, and avoid the same situation Germany has with Russia, which is a stupid situation. Germany delivered, and supplied weapons to Ukraine, stepping into a war by proxy, then Germany complains about the low supply of natural gas coming from Russia? It might be a cold winter in Germany if their government continues its war by proxy.

[be.open]

China's crude oil imports from Russia soared by 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as their top supplier. Could China's reason for switching to Russia from the US as a result of closeness of boundaries or is there an ulterior motive?

China's motive could be to reduce its dependence with the United States, and avoid the same situation Germany has with Russia, which is a stupid situation. Germany delivered, and supplied weapons to Ukraine, stepping into a war by proxy, then Germany complains about the low supply of natural gas coming from Russia? It might be a cold winter in Germany if their government continues its war by proxy.

Why look for complex motives in depth when there is a simple motive on the surface - the price. China is the most energy-deficient country in the world, its energy demand is huge and greater than that of Germany, so China is interested in any kind of energy resources, especially if they are offered at a good discount.

[Reid]

And Russia just found their new source to fund their military strength.
No country can snob a 30 percent discount, it's way huge of money we are talking here. Even if the US thinks this is unfair China have their own decisions on who will offer best. They are the consumer, like customers so it'd better be with quality and quantity which they are also good at. (Quantity)
Ulterior motive? No, I don't think so, it's just the cheapest you can get. Just practical.
US are the ones who decided a sanction, so if they want, they could counter the offer.

[fiulpro]

Russia is willing to sell their Natural Gas and all the supplies to any nation which is willing to actually get in touch with them and buy it since most of the nations are frowning upon the imports from Russia. At the same time :
💡They are selling the natural gas at a much Cheaper price as compared to US.

Therefore I do think that if China can get a discount, they would ofcourse buy from their allies, Russia, they haven't done much to condemn their actions in the Ukraine as well, therefore it's not that bad it's making their relationships stronger.

[Wind_FURY]

China's crude oil imports from Russia soared by 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as their top supplier. Could China's reason for switching to Russia from the US as a result of closeness of boundaries or is there an ulterior motive?

China's motive could be to reduce its dependence with the United States, and avoid the same situation Germany has with Russia, which is a stupid situation. Germany delivered, and supplied weapons to Ukraine, stepping into a war by proxy, then Germany complains about the low supply of natural gas coming from Russia? It might be a cold winter in Germany if their government continues its war by proxy.

Why look for complex motives in depth when there is a simple motive on the surface - the price. China is the most energy-deficient country in the world, its energy demand is huge and greater than that of Germany, so China is interested in any kind of energy resources, especially if they are offered at a good discount.

That could be the reason, and a more practical reason at that, BUT considering the geo-political situation between China and Taiwan, and Taiwan's "protector" the United States, I believe China might be preparing itself for"something". It might be the "Black Swan" of this current market cycle.

[paxmao]

"Complex motives?" Nah, China is doing what China always does, taking the opportunity when is there. They do not fear an invasion from the RF (I am not sure they understand fully that risk, but the fact is they ignore it) so why not buying cheap when it is available? Who know, maybe they will be the new Germany and make the "smart" move of making their economy depend on the will of Adolf Putin.

For now it seems the sanctions on Russia is having more negative impact on Europe and US than the sanctioned nation.      

"For now" is the key word here. Oil and gas prices will drop when countries will start producing more of them. And Russia can't simply sell all the oil and especially gas that it was selling to Europe - there's no infrastructure or demand among its friends for that. Combine this with the discounts they have to make to make their oil more attractive, and you'll see that in next 2-3 years Russian fossil fuels revenue is going to drop. And that would be very painful, because that's 50-60% of Russian budget, as they don't have any significant high technology or service exports.

Europe does not have the opportunity to wait 2-3 years for the sanctions to take effect on Russia, because it will not be able to winter the coming winter without energy supplies from Russia.

A gas shutdown would cost the RF 228 USD million... that is per day - and before you say something silly, that cannot be re-routed to China, there is no infrastructure. That would be 20 Billion for 3 months until spring kills the leverage.

You have a very naïve idea of the importance of the RF and a very poor understanding of the resources that Europe can mobilise in a war economy. Your dream of "freezing Europe" is a simple idea for a simple mind. The EU did not want to revive the coal and nuclear energy sources, but if it has to happen, it will. I guess that the world will need to afford another bad year for climate change.

These  are the countries that could be affected the worse, just for context:

- Austria, 20% of energy from gas, all currently from RF.   - total problem: 20% of the energy
- Slovakia, Hungary, 25% of their energy, mostly from RF.  - total problem: 20% of the energy
- Germany, 27% of their energy from gas, but only 55% from RF. - total problem: 13% of their energy.

And the rest is even less. I do not want to minimise the issue, but this looks more like having the heating on at 19 C instead of at 23??

Germany still has coal and nuclear, France has nuclear power for half Europe, the south of Europe does not care about RF gas. Economic problems? There will be, there are always. I am sure the US thanks Adolf Putin everyday.

Can Europe wait? I do not see why not, it is much better than having Adolf Putin thinking that he can threaten with an invasion.

[BADecker]

...

A gas shutdown would cost the RF 228 USD million... that is per day - and before you say something silly, that cannot be re-routed to China, there is no infrastructure. That would be 20 Billion for 3 months until spring kills the leverage.

You have a very naïve idea of the importance of the RF and a very poor understanding of the resources that Europe can mobilise in a war economy. Your dream of "freezing Europe" is a simple idea for a simple mind. The EU did not want to revive the coal and nuclear energy sources, but if it has to happen, it will. I guess that the world will need to afford another bad year for climate change.

These  are the countries that could be affected the worse, just for context:

- Austria, 20% of energy from gas, all currently from RF.   - total problem: 20% of the energy
- Slovakia, Hungary, 25% of their energy, mostly from RF.  - total problem: 20% of the energy
- Germany, 27% of their energy from gas, but only 55% from RF. - total problem: 13% of their energy.

And the rest is even less. I do not want to minimise the issue, but this looks more like having the heating on at 19 C instead of at 23??

Germany still has coal and nuclear, France has nuclear power for half Europe, the south of Europe does not care about RF gas. Economic problems? There will be, there are always. I am sure the US thanks Adolf Putin everyday.

Can Europe wait? I do not see why not, it is much better than having Adolf Putin thinking that he can threaten with an invasion.

You seem to not realize that a gas shutdown doesn't cause Russia to lose any income at all. Why not? They already lost the income through the sanctions. But if they didn't, the sanctions are a bunch of double-talk. But if the sanctions are real, why should they continue to pump gas for nothing? The sanctions even keep them from getting parts for the pumping machinery. They almost don't have any choice.

But if you say that the sanctions didn't have anything to do with purchasing gas from Russia, but were only designed for other things, like grain, there you are probably right. Russia should have kept the gas flowing, but they should require ten times the cost to make up for damages the sanctions have done in other areas.

Russia doesn't need European trade at all. They are big enough - especially if you include Siberia - that they are a world unto themselves. World trade simply benefits Russia and the rest of the world in various ways. But Russia doesn't need it. In fact, there is basically only ONE natural resource Russia needs >>> more people >>> to work the lands that belong to Russia. Putin is starting to fix that by offering free Siberian land for homesteading.

The Ukraine war is simply Russia slapping an annoying mosquito that has been bugging her for the last decade or so.

[Cryptock]

That could be the reason, and a more practical reason at that, BUT considering the geo-political situation between China and Taiwan, and Taiwan's "protector" the United States, I believe China might be preparing itself for"something". It might be the "Black Swan" of this current market cycle.

EU did not a good role to stop the war - they just wanted to weaken Russia and all of them failed.
Now they are all in trouble - Biden have to face midterm election soon and he is in trouble. This is one of the biggest mistake the NATO allies did. Let's see what happens next.