Title: [Tutorial] How to form a 2019 Bitcoin Bottom Post by: dragonvslinux on September 13, 2022, 10:00:23 AM Here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5405627.msg60930107#msg60930107) and there (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5410763.msg60930175#msg60930175) I've referenced how this current bear market is looking similar to that of 2019 so here is a representation based on the 3 Day chart with MAs (20/50/200):
2019 Bitcoin Bottom https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/a/Av7yMp78.png 2022 Bitcoin Bottom https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/1/15GiBQH0.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/krCzm4pa-BTCUSD-How-to-form-a-2019-Bottom/) Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/krCzm4pa-BTCUSD-How-to-form-a-2019-Bottom/ As price this week closes back above the 20 MA, the key takeaways from this 2019 fractal are the following:
Based on this fractal, there are notable differences to this bear market than the previous one that I'll quickly outline:
As referenced in this title, this should be considered a "tutorial" (as an example) for how Bitcoin can form a bottom, as opposed to outright prediction of future price movements. While I do believe the low is likely in (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5407374.0), it's not based on the current market structure nor referenced fractal, but instead alternative metrics. With price action now catching up with original analysis that the low is in, based on the previous bear market bottom, a break-out above $25K in the very near future (coming days) remains unlikely, with instead further consolidation in the accumulation zone as more likely in order to form a rounding bottom. Title: Re: [Tutorial] How to form a 2019 Bitcoin Bottom Post by: Franctoshi on September 13, 2022, 10:35:21 AM It will be nice to see Bitcoin do something like this, When comparing the 2018-19 start of Bull market there is a bit similarities , the previous 2019 had a double bottom and the present 2022 same, too looking at the RSI indicator both went oversold from the weekly time frame perspective, and the pvpr indicator equally has huge Volume of trades in the level we're in right now, Therefore ,In Technical Analysis history does not only reapeat itself but it rhymes. However, the whole thing is just a matter of time, so let see if it does play out in the coming months and years.
Title: Re: [Tutorial] How to form a 2019 Bitcoin Bottom Post by: adaseb on September 13, 2022, 02:15:51 PM These guilds won’t help this time because time Bitcoin follows the global stock market indices. An hour ago the CPI data came out and it turns out inflation is not going down at the rate we assumed.
So now the fed might get aggressive with rate hikes again and this is not good for any risk on assets like Bitcoin. Hence why it’s impossible to use a chart from the past to predict the Bitcoin bottom. Title: Re: [Tutorial] How to form a 2019 Bitcoin Bottom Post by: dragonvslinux on September 13, 2022, 04:00:19 PM These guilds won’t help this time because time Bitcoin follows the global stock market indices. An hour ago the CPI data came out and it turns out inflation is not going down at the rate we assumed. That's odd, as literally the first point that I list to lookout for based on forming a bottom is the following, so it seems that this guide is relatively useful/accurate after all:
Clearly for now price is not turning $21.9K as support, and therefore forming the bottom pattern remains elusive. I'd otherwise argue this merely sets back the bottom by around a week to 10 days. So now the fed might get aggressive with rate hikes again and this is not good for any risk on assets like Bitcoin. Hence why it’s impossible to use a chart from the past to predict the Bitcoin bottom. Maybe if "super bearish" CPI numbers were announced like in July price could have pumped 20% again from the news? Failing to see the relevance personally, Bitcoin doesn't care about the fed. The more speculators assume that Bitcoin forming a bottom is impossible based on fiat inflation, the more likely a bottom will form imo. Nothing is impossible when it comes to Bitcoin. Title: Re: [Tutorial] How to form a 2019 Bitcoin Bottom Post by: OgNasty on September 14, 2022, 06:22:55 PM I take a little longer view of the market than this chart. When I look at it, I don't see all these bull traps and moving average reversals... I see a volume spike on the left side of the chart as it moved below $4,500 and then a six month stacking opportunity as the market accumulated. I accumulated through this period and was quite happy I did. I think taking a longer view of the market and not focusing on the day to day makes it much easier to decide which way things are going. While most think a good trader makes money every day, I think a good trader in Bitcoin is bullish for 3 years, and bearish for 1 (give or take 6 months). This has worked out well for me in the past... What's the old saying?
"Don't run down and fuck one cow. Walk down and fuck them all." |