[Tutorial] How to form a 2019 Bitcoin Bottom

[dragonvslinux]

Here and there I've referenced how this current bear market is looking similar to that of 2019 so here is a representation based on the 3 Day chart with MAs (20/50/200):

2019 Bitcoin Bottom



2022 Bitcoin Bottom



Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/krCzm4pa-BTCUSD-How-to-form-a-2019-Bottom/

As price this week closes back above the 20 MA, the key takeaways from this 2019 fractal are the following:

• Price will need to turn the 20 MA (previous resistance) into support, currently priced $21,950. This can be considered a basic requirement in order to confirm a bear market bottom
• Price would need to trade further in the $22K to $24K range, in order to expand the accumulation zone from $20K-$22K to $20K-$24K, which the 2019 fractal would achieve
• If $17.5K is the low, then this bottom could still only be 60% complete, therefore there remains another month or so prior to a break-out. Expect low volume & consolidation
• The re-accumulation zone would be around $28.5K to $31.5K, where price previously consolidated after initial capitulation and trading volume is present (similar to 2019)
• The target based on the 3 Day chart would be the 200 MA, currently priced at $41.4K, although this continues to decline, so based on trajectory probably around ~$40K
• Further rejection from $24K levels shouldn't be considered a bearish lower high, nor failure for price to move higher, but simply part of a bottom forming process

Based on this fractal, there are notable differences to this bear market than the previous one that I'll quickly outline:

• The capitulation volume wasn't condensed to a 3 week period like 2019, but instead "spread out" over a month long period
• Due to the two-stage capitulation, as opposed to a single event capitulation, the bull trap arrived at a considerably higher price
• Price did manage to briefly reclaim the 20 MA, as opposed to being swiftly rejected, highlighting slightly higher buying pressure

As referenced in this title, this should be considered a "tutorial" (as an example) for how Bitcoin can form a bottom, as opposed to outright prediction of future price movements. While I do believe the low is likely in, it's not based on the current market structure nor referenced fractal, but instead alternative metrics. With price action now catching up with original analysis that the low is in, based on the previous bear market bottom, a break-out above $25K in the very near future (coming days) remains unlikely, with instead further consolidation in the accumulation zone as more likely in order to form a rounding bottom.

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[Franctoshi]

It will be nice to see Bitcoin do something like this, When comparing the 2018-19 start of Bull market there is a bit similarities , the previous 2019 had a double bottom and the present 2022 same, too looking at the RSI indicator both went oversold from the weekly time frame perspective, and the pvpr indicator equally has huge Volume of trades in the level we're in right now, Therefore ,In Technical Analysis history does not only reapeat itself but it rhymes. However, the whole thing is just a matter of time, so let see if it does play out in the coming months and years.

[adaseb]

These guilds won’t help this time because time Bitcoin follows the global stock market indices. An hour ago the CPI data came out and it turns out inflation is not going down at the rate we assumed.

So now the fed might get aggressive with rate hikes again and this is not good for any risk on assets like Bitcoin. Hence why it’s impossible to use a chart from the past to predict the Bitcoin bottom.

[dragonvslinux]

These guilds won’t help this time because time Bitcoin follows the global stock market indices. An hour ago the CPI data came out and it turns out inflation is not going down at the rate we assumed.

That's odd, as literally the first point that I list to lookout for based on forming a bottom is the following, so it seems that this guide is relatively useful/accurate after all:

• Price will need to turn the 20 MA (previous resistance) into support, currently priced $21,950. This can be considered a basic requirement in order to confirm a bear market bottom

Clearly for now price is not turning $21.9K as support, and therefore forming the bottom pattern remains elusive. I'd otherwise argue this merely sets back the bottom by around a week to 10 days.

So now the fed might get aggressive with rate hikes again and this is not good for any risk on assets like Bitcoin. Hence why it’s impossible to use a chart from the past to predict the Bitcoin bottom.

Maybe if "super bearish" CPI numbers were announced like in July price could have pumped 20% again from the news? Failing to see the relevance personally, Bitcoin doesn't care about the fed.

The more speculators assume that Bitcoin forming a bottom is impossible based on fiat inflation, the more likely a bottom will form imo. Nothing is impossible when it comes to Bitcoin.

[OgNasty]

I take a little longer view of the market than this chart.  When I look at it, I don't see all these bull traps and moving average reversals...  I see a volume spike on the left side of the chart as it moved below $4,500 and then a six month stacking opportunity as the market accumulated.  I accumulated through this period and was quite happy I did.  I think taking a longer view of the market and not focusing on the day to day makes it much easier to decide which way things are going.  While most think a good trader makes money every day, I think a good trader in Bitcoin is bullish for 3 years, and bearish for 1 (give or take 6 months).  This has worked out well for me in the past...  What's the old saying?

"Don't run down and fuck one cow.  Walk down and fuck them all."