Bitcoin Forum

The current economic situation is the most similar to the 2007 crisis since Bitcoin was created, but well into October, which is a traditionally bad month for the market, we seem to be going from bad to worse.

Let's recap.

1) This week the BoE had to intervene to save pensions:

Pension fund panic led to Bank of England’s emergency intervention: Here’s what you need to know (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/29/pension-fund-panic-led-to-bank-of-englands-emergency-intervention.html)

"LONDON – The Bank of England launched a historic intervention to stabilize the U.K. economy, announcing a two-week purchase program for long-dated bonds and delaying its planned gilt sales until the end of October.

The move came after a massive sell-off in U.K. government bonds — known as “gilts” — following the new government’s fiscal policy announcements Friday. The policies included large swathes of unfunded tax cuts that have drawn global criticism, and also saw the pound fall to an all-time low against the dollar on Monday."

2) There are growing rumors of a major European bank going banrupt. Two are the main candidates:

Credit Suisse Is in Deep Trouble (https://www.thestreet.com/investing/credit-suisse-is-in-deep-trouble)

"The No. 2 Swiss bank and one of the largest banks in the world is in deep trouble and is currently fighting for its survival. A negative outcome is likely to cause a shock similar to that caused by the bankruptcy of the U.S. bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008. This event triggered one of the most serious financial and economic crises since the Great Depression."

'Trading Like a Lehman Moment’ — Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Suffer From Distressed Valuations as the Banks’ Credit Default Insurance Nears 2008 Levels (https://news.bitcoin.com/trading-like-a-lehman-moment-credit-suisse-deutsche-bank-suffer-from-distressed-valuations-as-the-banks-credit-default-insurance-nears-2008-levels/)

3) China strikes back against the dollar:

Exclusive: China's state banks told to stock up for yuan intervention (https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/exclusive-chinas-state-banks-told-stock-up-yuan-intervention-sources-2022-09-29/)

"HONG KONG, Sept 29 (Reuters) - China's central bank has asked major state-owned banks to be prepared to sell dollars for the local unit in offshore markets as it steps up efforts to stem the yuan's descent, four sources with knowledge of the matter said.

State banks were told to ask their offshore branches, including those based in Hong Kong, New York and London, to review their holdings of the offshore yuan and ensure U.S. dollar reserves are ready to be deployed, three of the sources, who declined to be identified, told Reuters.

The simultaneous selling of dollars and buying of yuan could put a floor under the Chinese currency, which has lost more than 11% to the dollar so far this year and looks set for its biggest annual loss since 1994, when China unified its official and market rates.

The scale of this round of dollar selling to defend the weakening yuan will be rather big, one of the sources said."

4)Probably related to this point above, and others, there is an emergency Fed meeting tomorrow.

Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20221003closed.htm)

5)The war in Ukraine continues, with veiled threats from Russia to use nuclear weapons and private response at the highest level from the US saying that if that happens they will respond.

I am opening this thread so that we can comment on these and other issues that will happen in October.

The saddest part is that all these crisis have a simple solution, for EU countries to start regaining their independence and to normalize their relations with the Eastern Bloc while NATO stops expanding eastward and promises to stop escalating.
For now US orders them to jump and Europeans ask how high.

Obviously they don't seem to want to do that so things are going to continue getting worse. Energy crisis, Economic crisis, Food crisis, Drug wars and looming threat of nuclear annihilation is going to be the "new normal".

1. You've come with quite a number of topics. While it can be indeed the big picture on the recession that may be about to start, it can attract a lot of trolls, especially on the last point.

2. Indeed, Twitter is full "Credit Suisse is about to fall" and some unsettling news on China too. And the "perfect storm" needs more points to start from. However, while you added the war as an important point, the energy war that's also going on seems to be missing, although it's most probably the main cause for some of the problems listed.

3. The energy war that came after the COVID crisis made the inflation go over the roof. Well, the politicians' actions as answer to those events/threats has created the inflation, but this is where we stand now. BoE is just one of the many that will have to step in and do something while they still can; I don't see it as part of the recession, I see it part of the patching that's going on everywhere in a desperate attempt to prevent what's worse.

I also saw this news today, it is flooding on twitter as well as other social networks. Although this is just a rumor and there is no further information yet, if this happens, it will be the most terrible thing in the history of world economics and financials. During the 2007 crisis, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers led to a domino effect of mass bankruptcies in the financial industry and at that time Lehman Brothers was valued at 600 billion. Currently, the valuation of Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank is estimated at 2800 billion, 4.6 times higher than Lehman Brothers. If both go bankrupt, then it can be said that nothing will be worse for the current economy.
https://i.imgur.com/tZ4V40k.png

It reminds me of the zerohedge titles through the years:


Ten years later, DB is still there but it's going to die again, cause..  ;D  things


That's not a strike, it's calling mommy for help, the Yuan has fallen to the levels of 2008 against the dollar and they can't stop it from going even down despite telling everyone not to panic, don't buy $, don't try to get your wealth out the country!
So they are going to dump their reserve $ in order to keep the yuan afloat, because, yeah, it has worked wonders in the past, from the Bank of England to Venezuela to Zimbabwe!

Do you have anything to support this theory?
I have something to support mine, which is that you're making shit up.

https://i.imgur.com/8nOmnFR.jpg

As you can see, historically October is one of the best months for bitcoin.
It doesn't say much because each year is different and after 5 green years we finally had a red February in 2020. That said, if we're into months, let's be factual and not try to make it look worse than it is.

The global economy is fucked but short of nukes flying it's going to recover eventually. Heck, even if the nukes start flying it'll recover eventually. Except then it's the least of our problems.

In my opinion all of the points by OP, except for the last one, are symptoms rather than causes of economic issues. At the heart it's mostly the supply chains still reeling from the aftermath of the pandemic, aggrevated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The asset market was already overheated pre-pandemic, so it's no wonder everything falls apart now that there's a crisis on top of a crisis. But give it one or two years and markets will stabilize again. Unless, of course, the next crisis hits. But short of that it's probably best to sit back, take your eyes off the charts for a minute and wait for it all to blow over.

Economic crises seems to be bottomless at this point, if I would be asked, one factor which affects continuous increase with the things being sold to the market, us simply demand triggered by bigger number of population nowadays. More consumers means less resources, right? So I guess this is valid but feel free to correct me anyway. I've connected it to real world situation because what happens on a daily basis, also affect the prices of cryptos. Patterns on the other hand are not hundred percent reliable, it is just a guide and being prepared for the "possible" downfall, would be really advisable always.

I will only say that there are so many problems that it is very easy to create a narrative that something very bad will happen, and I will say that nothing will have such devastating consequences as the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. Of course, we are not talking about strategic nuclear weapons here, but rather tactical ones that would be used to attack Ukrainian troops or destroy Kiev as an attempt to force Ukraine to surrender.

The US was very clear about this, which in translation would mean that NATO would retaliate without any hesitation with conventional weapons against all Russian targets in Ukraine, but possibly also against any target from which such weapons were fired, which would include Russian territory. I think that in that case we are talking about the beginning of the third world war, and that in that case collapse of big European bank or the Chinese rescue of the national currency looks quite harmless.

---

I read the article and one part is on the trail of what you wrote, and it seems that CS and DB are playing the role of a potential financial bomb whenever the conditions for it are created. Maybe this time is different, but I would like it to be in the style of the saying that is popular in my area "the hills shook, and a mouse was born".

We all clamor for a perfect world with a perfect economy, but unfortunately, there will never be a world as such, not while we have greedy and selfish people heading the affairs of the world.
I have grown to a point where nothing surprises me anymore, a person can come to me and say "some parts of the world is crashing" and my answer would be "oh, is it happening already?, where is it happening this time?".

Taking shelter isn't a long term solution if you ask me, we as individuals have to learn to live an adjustable/adaptable lifestyle, what do I mean by this?
It is a kind of lifestyle that gives us the ability to easily adjust and adapt to any kind of life the economy of the world throws at us, this makes bearing every situation easier, rather than allowing ourselves to get caught up in the wind.

As the situation stands, I don't think it will happen, but provided we don't all die in a nuclear holocaust, I think Europe will lose a lot, as you say.


I don't think so, but if so, depending on what they write, I will report them. Genuine trolls are usually on the P&S board.


Talk of a possible Lehman bankruptcy or a real estate bubble bursting also provoked laughter not so long ago. Do I remind you how that turned out?

On the other hand, DB has lost 75% of its stock market value in the last 10 years. A sign that it is not very buoyant despite having had an open bar from the ECB.


Agree. If the situation escalates, you never know how it might end, and escalating with atomic bombs can make worries about the economy a trifle.


I agree. There are many political systems that in theory work perfectly. It is when humans go on to try to implement them that they fail. All of them. Every time. Because we are imperfect.

A while ago an analyst described Europe as that majestic white mare that has a broken leg and while it is on the ground it is surrounded by bears, eagles, lions, even jackals. They are all showing their teeth and claws...
With every passing day, this description looks more real. :'(

Even a broken clock is right, or how one of the users here said:


If you keep chanting every month that a crisis will come and you live enough you might see one, if you're unlucky like my grandparents who learned every day the US evil empire will fall, you might, well, not see it in your lifetime. Do you know what amuses me the most? The thing that people here who all the time are laughing about Bitcoin obituaries make the same mistake again when looking at the other markets, I said it, the only thing that died more times than BTC in the last 10 years is the $, and as you can see.. ;)


Exactly, just to line this with the above-mentioned crisis, the real one is catching everyone but a few by surprise, those that make it over twitter one year before it happens are as accurate as shit! DB has collapsed a hundred times, CS the same, let's not even mention JPM, how many have been burned by shorting Tesla (mentioning this because I know how much you like the guy  :D), and many many others.
Of course, at one point it will happen, but this monthly doom is really getting boring so, bring it already!

Trying to predict the next economic crisis is pretty futile, but like you say there is a lot of nasty stuff happening right now. People have been calling a recession for a while now and a slow one could be unfolding right now. The US and UK are showing a lot of technical indicators in that direction, but damaging inflation is also yet to set in fully for some countries. There will be an energy crisis unfolding in Europe throughout the winter along and mortgage rates shooting up is going to be painful for a lot of people when it comes to renewal time. Collectively it is going to get worse, the job market is buoyant right now but recessions cause a vicious spiral of cutbacks which ripple through the whole economy in unexpected ways.

Yes, they have, but with "simple solutions" there wouldn't be enough space for corruption and stealing. Like this it's just "1984", it's easier to rule the people if you keep them in dark, constantly afraid... I don't watch TV at home, but when I catch something (usually when I go somewhere I watch what others choose) I see so big loads of crap that it's unexplainable! Complete brainwashing, with "experts" of all kinds and their "arguments"!

Well, "the shit show goes on"... and I guess it's the same as always, we either find a way and survive or not!

Being a strong heart person to face the bearish crypto market now.Selling of governments bonds was increase the money flow among the governments.So we expects some good flow among the people by the schemes.They also make some changes in the flow of money to the crypto trading by the people due to the excess money among the traders and exchanges.If nuclear will exploid,it will impact the world economy for sure.

Advice from the field of medicine - "If you hug the homeless and don't wash your hands after that, and your stomach starts to hurt - drink water from puddles and eat from landfills, especially rotten food" :)
I'm sure - in the word "east" you mean precisely ruZZia! And explain - what is the point of improving relations with a loser, a terrorist, and a country whose word is worth nothing?

The Credit Susise situation is very strange. Basically alot of panic was created over the weekend. Many sellers started to sell the SP500 when trading started in Asian. And when CS started to trade it tanked but it ended the day positive.

Seems that it was a massive bear trap pretty much. If the bank was in trouble shouldn't the stock tank ? But instead it rallies? Wonder how many people shorted it at the open or bought puts and are facing huge losses. Alot of manipulations in the markets going on.

And this is only the beginning. The failure of the stock and crypto market could soon be the least of our worries. In the past few years, we've been hit by multiple crises again and again. First Covid-19, then the Ukrainian-Russian war, and who knows what else the future beholds. Economies eventually recover, but I believe that we should focus on Russia's threats regarding nuclear weapons. In my opinion, we're standing on a thin line, but we're yet to realize it. I'm hoping that when we do, it won't be too late. Things aren't looking too great for Russia right now, while it's been claimed to even mobilize teenagers and the elderly on a suicide mission against Ukraine.

If a single nuke were launched from Russia, it would spark a series of disastrous events for all of us. A larger scale war would break out while we'd be exchanging nukes against each other.

Base on previous predictions I was thinking that October would be the month bitcoin would rise up because the predictions said, bitcoin will rise up before the end of this year, 2021. And also from the previous years September was used as the worst month but its like this year is going to be different. My thinking now would be diverted to the worst so that it would not come as a surprise.
In no 1, pension fund is always a problem in some countries... bank of England can not do anything because pension matter is not today's matter, even though they (Bank of England) key into the matter without the government instruction.
No 2. The great depression was one of the worst economic disaster period in Europe in the year 1929. Industries and farm lands were destroyed by the wind. Any country that faces backruptcy should take a drastic step to stop it before it becomes too late.
No 3, dollar is one of the issues (problem) countries face in the world inflation- If China can handle of maintain the strike against dollar their economy will be one of the best economy in the world.
No 5, US might join the war if Russia strikes the major cities...and that might lead to world war.

This is why people are advise to diversify their portfolio, stocks or bonds, real-estate, jewelry and not only crypto assets.
If you know there's a situation that is coming, you will prepare for something that you think you can overcome.
In case, you can sell whatever you think is the best for the situation. But you won't go bankrupt for sure.
Diversification is the key if you know something worst is to come. Even if one of them will goes to zero, you have other backups to go to.

I agree, diversification can be definitely helpful and must be exercised in order to maximize your earnings especially during a calamity. But another crucial factor must be said- investments are always liquid. Meaning, you can always convert all of your investments to cash especially if you need the funds during an emergency.

While a family must have an emergency fund ready for any calamity, you can always convert your investments to cash when the need arises. Remember, investments are also resources that you can use especially when you definitely and significantly need the cash to use.

I just don't understand why you are quoting Zerohedge. The source I posted does not quote ZH, as much as this topic reminds you of them, and yesterday CS shares went as low as 12%, which points out that investors were not trusting, regardless of what ZH says or not.

Credit Suisse Plunges 12% as Concerns of Going Bankrupt Spike (http://Read More: https://www.kaohooninternational.com/markets/517047/)

Regarding the dollar, I have made reference to the fact that China is going to counterattack, not by far it is going to collapse the USD. Other currencies will collapse much sooner, and in the current crisis it has only been strengthened. That is why China wants to fight back.

The world economy is in a state of serious crisis. But somehow I look to Europe which is in a difficult position. They don't seem to have much choice. they seemed to be pressured from various parties. Today 1 euro = 0.98 USD or thereabouts. this is the worst economic crisis for Europe. This high inflation is indeed natural after the pandemic. but this was made worse by the Russian-Ukrainian War. This is where Europe made the wrong decision at that time by not being neutral. and even boycott one of the parties. although this action will not bring benefits to Europe. instead it brought trouble as it does today.

and when it comes to inflation in various countries, the prices of goods are increasing or getting more expensive. then it's actually the impact of Shock Manufacturers. that is because during the pandemic many factories were closed and many of the surviving factories reduced employees. so production decreases.
so the supply is reduced. because the interest in goods during the pandemic is low. and that's fine during a pandemic.

but when the pandemic is over. Everyone who originally refrained from shopping for a product became unable to hold it back. and release the desires that were buried during the pandemic and release those desires when the pandemic ends. And what is overwhelmed, of course, is the producer who provides the goods. They are not prepared for sudden craze or increased shopping demand or interest. while many factories have already closed. and those who survive are short of employees in increasing the amount of production. So there is an imbalance between the supply of goods and the demand for goods. that is one of the triggers of inflation that occurs. although other triggers are also more. followed by other triggers such as a lot of tension or disputes between countries. and Russia's war with Ukraine that had the most impact, of course.

at this time what we have to do is to secure our assets so that they are not too affected by the decline in the value of the currency that we hold or that we keep in the Bank. we better exchange our money into Gold or some land. and if you still have money in the bank then I think withdrawing it now is a wise thing. because we do not know how severe this economic crisis will be. and it could make the bank in our area bankrupt.

Because at some point a word gets a new meaning, even if it's not quoting ZH it's still ZH material, much like... a homer for example ;D
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f1/Pull_a_Homer.jpg

And what about those investors, cause after the panic sell there was a panic buy since well, shares were trading above starting price at the end and I'm pretty sure all the doomsdayers and shorters are really not having a nice morning today:
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/20/blobc96f1989c8f50d60.png
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/cs

What was the nickname of those guys, ...weak hands? Lol!


And I told you it's not a counterattack it's emptying the pockets yelling take all my money and stop hitting me  ;D

I call him Mr. Mars for a good reason, because it seems that his body is here, and his soul (if he has one at all) is at least on Mars or even somewhere further away. In addition, the man is a proven manipulator of the stock market and was punished by the SEC, and for me personally, he did a lot of damage to Bitcoin with his business moves. The man has his positive sides if we consider that he donated satellite internet devices to Ukraine, but today he surprised me again (unpleasantly) with his peace proposal and I believe that he angered all patriotic Ukrainians.

---

Let's just look at the man who was nicknamed Dr. Doom (Nouriel Roubini) who probably talks about disasters and collapses of world economies all his life and is now probably experiencing the peak of his career as an eternal pessimist and surely tells everyone "I said it would happen".

So folks,

If we are headed for a major recession, what’s the play?

If I’m to diversify my portfolio away from holding BTC, what should I hold in its stead?

Should I be holding USD, gold or something else?

I'm just curious, as I don't know how old you are: do you remember that crisis and how it all played out?  I remember it well, especially the absolutely devastating hit the stock market took, which can be plainly seen on a 20-year chart of the S&P 500:

https://i.imgur.com/VcRMIWQ.jpg

People were losing their houses because they couldn't afford them anymore (though many shouldn't have bought them in the first place), unemployment skyrocketed, and every day in the news you'd read about banks in the US shutting down.  It was a triple threat crisis, with the housing and stock markets getting slaughtered, as well as the banking system. 

Following that, the brilliant idea of "Quantitative Easing" was carried out, and the printing presses at the Federal Reserve went BRRR for years, in part leading us to the inflationary spike we're seeing today.  I'm not really sure if the economy of 2022 is nearly as bad as the 2007-09 crisis, but it certainly could get there quick.

That whole thing baffles me.  And I'm not sure how the US would respond, but if it was with nuclear weapons, that would be suicide. 

Except as everyone has pointed out, Bitcoin will be dumped by a lot of people when they are forced to tighten their belts, and as they try to derisk themselves - bitcoin is seen as a risk asset by a lot of people.

Bitcoin has not seen a major recession yet. So a major global recession is uncharted territory for bitcoin.

I am also worried about my local currency (A U D), although we managed to mostly avoid the 2008 recession.

I already wrote in this topic that the US and NATO will respond to a nuclear tactical attack, and their position is quite clear - the response would be exclusively with conventional weapons against all Russian targets in Ukraine - but given that Russia has annexed parts of occupied Ukraine, that would mean that NATO attacks Russian territory, which means that Russia has the right to retaliate with strategic nuclear weapons, which means that all large cities in the northern hemisphere would become targets.

The simulation was not done a few years ago, and that Plan A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jy3JU-ORpo) would actually be the end of the world as we know it today. The fate of the world, as I have already written, is in the hands of a man who is completely obsessed with his idea of a great Russia at any cost, and on the other hand, a senile old man who can no longer appear in public without causing some new ridiculous situation.

Well, if anything, the strong hands that have HODLed CS stock since the top have lost something like over 90% of what they invested. The price at the top was around 90CHF and today it is at 4. So a very good investment by all accounts.

 :D


I am middle-aged, and, yes, I remember that crisis, but the aftermath was not experienced in the same way in the USA as in Europe, because while the stock market there recovered in 3 years, the Euro Stoxx 50 has not yet recovered its maximum value.

In the EU in 2012 there was a sovereign debt crisis and there was talk of the possible breakup of the euro, in Cyprus there was a run on the market in 2013, Greece was bailed out, etc. and only when the president of the ECB at that time, Mario Draghi pronounced "whatever it takes" the EU began to see the light at the end of the tunnel.


I think that since both sides know that playing with fire could lead to the total destruction of humanity, it is unlikely that they will start playing with atomic bombs. But in wars you never know. When the conflict starts to escalate sometimes things get out of hand.

I think we should take into account that those who have the power to use nuclear weapons know very well that they will preserve their lives in their underground shelters, along with all those who are important to them. What is important to them is to save enough people to be able to start anew when the nuclear winter is over. When we take all this into account, along with the fact that some of the famous people of the world are advocating the depopulation of the world, then we cannot feel too calm, although we should always count on that spark of human reason and humanity.

Which brings us to the obvious question, since we're talking about the final meltdown.
So if the drop from 90 to 64, 64 to 69, 69 to 64, 64 to 20 and 20 to 4 haven't triggered the apocalypse why do you assume that the 10% they lost on Monday and recovered on Tuesday will be the final nail in the coffin?  :D


There won't be any nuclear war, Putin is obsessed with winning, he is going to go for any straw he can grasp to proclaim a victory even in total defeat so for sure he will not go for an act after which there is nobody left to clap his hands when he does a PowerPoint slideshow of his achievements. Plus it's not like he has a real button and once pressed nukes fly, I'm pretty sure in this scenario if he does order this he will just get shot in the back the same moments, it's one thing for the elite and his generals to stay in Moscow, lose some yachts and a few millions out of their billion it's a different thing when they are confronted with losing their own lives.

Shorting on Bitcoin 6-month (or any length for that matter) futures is actually not the correct decision to make when faced with events like in the OP.

That's because we will probably get a little breathing space soon, purely from a market trading point of view, before those gains are reversed by the events to come shortly.

Keep in mind that Bitcoin has not sunk below $18K so far, confirming my hypothesis that Bitcoin price does not go below previous halving cycle ATH. Therefore, longing on 3-month Bitcoin futures (like $22K or $23K) is probably a good way to make a small amount of $$$. (Better now, before 2023 rolls out in earnest - nothing spectacular really happens on New year and in the December holidays.)

Another news that I've seen a few days ago that could also be threatening was when Tokyo residents has been advised to relocate and warned about the recent missile launched over their city by the North Korea.

Source: Japan residents wake up to rare J-Alert missile warning (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/04/national/jalert-japan-north-korea-warning/)

We're not even recovered yet from all of the devastation made by the covid pandemic, Ukraine and Russia war and now this. There's also the China-Taiwan that could also pop anytime from now on and there goes the ally of China and Russia which is the North Korea.

Take shelter in what?

Cash? Losing value to inflation.

Gold? Unless it is physical it don't make much sense and physical is hard to store, hard to convert to FIAT (merchants rip you off with spread)

Crypto? Going down

Stocks? Some of them are actually doing alright but it takes skills to find those

Bonds? Down

Real Estate? Bubble, will pop

I expect that the month of October will be bad for the global economy in general, as well as for Crypto, but it will not be the worst because next winter things will get worse as a result of the entry of severe cold and the need for Europe to heat in conditions of fuel shortage, at that time I think we will see a major crisis as a result of increased demand for Fuel, and this will lead to an increase in the prices of all materials, especially foodstuffs, and of course this will reflect worse on the economy.

North Korea's ballistic missile test is not new, it can be said to happen every year. They are just trying to protect their sovereignty as long as the US and South Korea don't threaten their national security then they have no reason to go to war with anyone. They are an eccentric country but they have never hurt anyone, if America didn't make things tense then nothing would happen.

China and Taiwan are probably the issues we need to worry about, I predict a war is definitely inevitable. But now that possibility is not possible when China at home is also experiencing economic difficulties so they will not rush to act at this time.

Well the Credit Suisse was a big bear trap. If you listened to all the panic and FUD you would be negative -25% right now if you shorted it. Basically the stock opened down, and completely reversed and finished the week at +25%. Wonder how many are underwater right now.

This is proof you can't take everything you read on the internet and crypto twitter too seriously. If Credit Suisse was actually going to default, you would be the last to know about it, not the first. Similar to how Lehman brothers and Bear Stearns went down. Only the elite knew in advantage and not the general public.

Bitcoin will not be stable in the market, because the reason for the decrease and increase in price that always occurs in Bitcoin makes Bitcoin not a stable coin in the market.
And that's actually a very good thing for those who like to trade in the short term even though the price volatility isn't as big as it is now (between $18K to $20K), but it's still very good for those looking to make a profit in the short term.

Despite the points above, I think the impact of the Fundamental Change will be on the air, water, and land, and there will be a lot of negativity pushing things forward. What was once "normal" turned into something to worry about, slowly but surely.

This is the real fear of the government, top politicians, and most importantly the invisible elite.

Yes, It's hard to know what will happen in the coming months. Some possibilities may never happen, but at least we can say with certainty that there is some uncertainty on the horizon.

The problem is that this new China-US proxy war through Taiwan has a high chance of getting others involved. Namely Japan and South Korea and possibly even Australia. NK launching a missile over Japan could  also be a part of that existing tension and to send a "message" of possibility of a much bigger war.

It may also affect crypto and whether it will be bad or good for crypto, we must be more vigilant and prepared for all possibilities. People will be more focused so they can stay afloat, which means they will keep trying to have more money to buy groceries or something. Maybe if it's bad for crypto, we crypto users need to be more patient because this could be a really tough year for everyone. The economy could also be worse than it is today because several countries may already be affected.

And they did it again...

North Korea fires more ballistic missiles after US military drills (https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20221005-north-korea-fires-another-ballistic-missile-after-un-security-council-meeting)

This tension has been maintained for years. China is conducting military exercises around Taiwan, and Pyongyang is shooting in all directions. But I don't believe that any side wants this tense situation to turn into a total conflict because it is not in anyone's interest. As it seems, all of them have much more to lose than to gain in the event of a major conflict.

Well, I agree that chances for escalation are high, and if something happens it will involve the entire world, not just Japan, S. Korea, and Australia. Just what we need on top of this war in Europe!

Crypto may go down right now, but it is the best option among all others, because it is doing very well right now and it could definitely increase the value of it very quickly. We just need to realize that the best thing to do would be making sure that you are doing something profitable for you by buying bitcoin, because in a few years when this is all done, we won't have house prices going 5x, we won't have stocks 5x higher, we won't have fiat x5 higher, but we will have crypto being 5x higher, even more.

That is why it's preferable, sure when they all go down, they all go down including crypto, but when they go up, crypto goes up much more than any other option.

We must prepare it from now on considering the current uncertainty of global economic conditions,
in conditions like this mentally preparing is also important because with a strong mentality at least we can continue to fight to stay afloat,
reduce spending on non-essential needs

Yes, it's not new but it's dangerous because nobody knows where it is landing. I don't think that they're even threatened. As you've said, it's happening every year and there's no need for them to test that every year because every country knows what they're up to and they can blast that missile anytime, wherever they want and that's why no intervention is going to happen unless they will be the one to first move. IIRC, there have been many times that they've done this.
I hope that it won't happen because China is a known alliance for North Korea. As most of the countries are dealing with inflation and economic crisis, I think that's even going to trigger a possible war but I don't wanna talk about its possibilities.

Right. With the current world condition, especially what is happening in our country, we really need to prepare everything before everything changes and we are too late to do so. No one can help us unless we start our own business. And yes, we must fight to stay afloat, save all the money only for the essentials and don't forget to save it for the future because when things start to change, we are already well prepared. We will survive when the conditions get tough if we can do it.

With the many facts that have happened in all countries, including the one I live in, and when looking at a much wider country and faster economic growth, it turns out that the crisis will hit again. I think it's better to be vigilant than to relax as if everything is fine. It is undeniable that European countries can now demonstrate to us transparently that no one will be saved forever. Fear of course there is even a fear of a more severe recession that makes us have to immediately provide supplies in advance.

Like it has stopped hitting? I think since the start of Covid-19 wave, the world has been living under unstoppable crisis. By the time vaccine got invented and the life starts to improve, the whole world was struck with that useless and stupid "special operation". The price again started to grow up, and the heating season or winter havent even started yet. I hope the whole world will take that Europe experience, of being dependent on, learn from it and make conclusion.

Many predictions are convinced that in October there will be a storm and make panic so that it sells in a loss condition, I think this is a mistake because it is too trusting with FUDS but if that happens then the best thing is to be patient and do not panic.

if it continues, the impact will be felt even more, even if little by little.

We must prepare mentally and plan for the future to deal with this situation.

sometimes I am also sad to see innocent people fall victim to government interests.
where is this justice?

Indeed, there is no need to panic in facing the current market situation, even though in reality it still looks not good, but everyone must believe that market conditions will improve again one day, because the volume of demand and supply in the market is always different every month and even every year.
So this is very common and obviously requires patience in dealing with it if you really want to get better profits.

It is true. that's when the crisis will really get worse. But even now we are on the verge of a severe economic crisis. if we look at the development of the wars between Ukraine and Russia. we see conditions getting out of control. even this will be more detrimental to many parties. and Europe will definitely be badly affected. I am more worried about the widening impact of this war. even many economists are now talking about how dark the year 2023 will be in the economic sector. so I guess we have to prepare from now on.

What bitcoin owners need is a strong belief and without having a strong belief, there are still many people who panic when FUD comes and mostly happens to beginners, because they have not had previous experience and without experiencing bitcoin journey because bitcoin is for the long term and also for strong hands .
and whatever happens to bitcoin eventually bitcoin will bounce back and also continue to grow, And besides having faith, patience is also needed because strong belief and patience will produce extraordinary results.

I am also worried the world economy has been tested to its final limits and i think ay major tumbling can lead to fall. I am really worried, if we are doing the right thing at this moment and what could be an ideal backup plan if worst happen. For now I am counting on Bitcoin as it seem to have a better future ahead. But yes we all need to brace for difficult times ahead.

Well, Marx already spoke of the inevitable end of capitalism, and not only has it not happened so far, but it has made humanity reach a level of prosperity and welfare that would make him turn over in his grave if he could see it.

These moments of crisis have always been and will continue to be, what we must be prepared for them, for example by not having excessive debts, especially of consumption, or having some Bitcoin holdings, as you comment.

I think I'm going to leave this thread open for the rest of the month at most, and maybe close it earlier because I don't want it to become a spam megathread.

All these "ism"s end eventually as the history has shown.
Capitalism has already failed and I don't know how you call the current situation in the world a "level of prosperity and welfare" considering that capitalism literary changed the meaning of "middle class" since it turned them into lower class and the lower class to absolute poverty. The capitalist world where a small number of people (1-2%) hold all the money in the world and the rest are in so much debt and are living hand to mouth is shouting failure.

NK does silly stuff like that at all times, they can't really afford to hit anyone, they can "try" but the reality is that NK is protected by China and Russia to be fair, and at the moment Russia is occupied with the Ukraine war situation so they can't care about NK at all, and if China has a Taiwan war going on, they won't care about NK neither, they need to be very very careful, we could see NK getting destroyed in a matter of few days at the very best case, probably inside a single 24 hours, if they attack someone and not have anyone else’s backing. The other parts however are very scary, they would be "cold war" levels, and hopefully not direct hit.

Being ready for a big crash is a hard thing to do, because you do not really know what exactly you should do. If you end up buying gold, the prices of gold could drop during a crash, if you buy some stocks then they will for sure crash during a crisis, or as we can see if you buy crypto then they will crash too. So when you are expecting a crash, it is easier to hold onto your fiat and then you could end up buying something after the crash for cheap.

But if you wait on fiat, that means you are going to lose its value if there is no crash, fiat is something that gets devalued after a while, so you need to be certain that there will be a crash or you will lose value.

'A word is enough for the wise'. I don't need a crystal ball to tell me things will be difficult and extremely difficult for low income earners particularly.
This days, I have cut down expenses a lot, better to have little than not to have at all. No one knows what the entire world will face in months and years to come, it will be better to start saving aggressively. It is going to be rough but with a little planning ahead everything will be fine.

Just two days ago the IMF warned the worst is yet to come, but for those which have their eyes open we have known this was going to be the case for a long time, so we need to do what we can to reduce our costs and if possible get our money in assets which can protect us during the storm that is coming, however many people will decide to not listen to the warnings and when the storm finally comes they will be caught unprepared and lose years of hard work in a matter of weeks or perhaps even days if things get really bad.

It's not wrong to relax. We need it sometimes so that we can somehow forget the trauma that past crisis brought to us but just like the crypto market that has a bear and bull cycle, there will also be a time for a relief and crisis in the real world so it's better if we can prepare for that moment and have the items that we will be needing or to prepare if what actions that we are going to do in case there will be another crisis again but its great if the recovery of some countries are much faster.

It only shows how strong or well prepared they are. If all countries are like that then time will come that we will never fear of any crisis that will hit to us.

The hardest thing to go against these people is the fact that when you offer a solution to it, they think it's communism and that failed too. They cannot comprehend the fact that if you do not have hardcore capitalism, you could have something other than communism in your hands. I mean there are other options than these two.

I know it has been shown as example a billion times, but even if it’s boring, just look at Scandinavian nations, they have such a nice world they built in, they took the best out of every idea and they built a place where it’s all great for everyone. Both have capitalist and socialist stuff all bonded together from the best parts of them.

It won't sound rude but that's exactly what we have to do to deal with situations that could become even more difficult in the future. We have to be prepared to deal with all kinds of situations and I agree with you about saving aggressively so we can have enough spare cash to survive the tough times. Reducing expenses is one way to save; if we can save more money, it will certainly be useful.

Everything has a beginning and an end, and not only "... isms" :)
But it would be more correct to say that the more competitive ones are being transformed and rebuilt to the changing reality. The same capitalism has already gone through several transformations, and the capitalism of the 1700th century is very different from the capitalism of the 21st century. It will also continue to happen - "reasonable and adaptive" will survive through transformation, but concepts or idiologies, with idiotic goals, methods - will fall apart without transformation. Well, or either with a sort of evolution, but with "genetic defects" that will also lead to the collapse of the ideology. Well, or quite simply - evolutionary mechanisms work in relation to the economic system :)

Tensions from left and right is going to cause huge detriments in the future not only of cryptocurrency but of mankind, especially as we're steering towards what could be the one of if not the worst wars in the history of mankind. Then again, October has come and gone and there seems to be little to no progress in the aforementioned issues, except Credit Suisse who's continuously tanking amidst the scandals and is now becoming a meme stock which says a lot from a well-established financial firm as CS.

mental preparation is certain, but financial preparation from an early age is preferred because we do not know how long this crisis will continue.
In my country, many crimes have occurred because of this crisis, and many companies have laid off their employees because they cannot pay their wages.
Even though it's just a prediction, it's a good idea to always be aware of the current economic crisis

A bad result can get off to a good start. It is necessary to look at the developing events from this point of view. While these are happening, there are opportunities, maybe we can catch one or two opportunities. In such cases, if you have no idea, taking control of your capital, paying attention to your spending and accumulating various assets will keep you alive at the end of these incidents

In 2021 then fantastic increases began in October, and we can see today the market rising and returning to $ 20k after almost 3 weeks prices below $ 20k, hopefully this is a sign that the market can rise or at least be able to return to the $ 35k .

Seeling perfect condition October meltdown shelter:

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/20/blobc960f97e5894812c.jpeg
* Image for illustration purpose only

Perfect condition, not once used, it's made out of enough toilet paper to last a life, it's fully isolated from good news with high-quality tinfoil, on request and on an extra change we can add Saylor laser eyes illumination, posters with the petrodollars in flames, and of course our customers favorite Bukake (not a typo) perfumed candles.

Disclaimer:
It's an October shelter so we don't guarantee survivability in November
Although it's an October-designed shelter it might not work in 2023

Since it's a shitty build we only offer purchases in shitcoins, price for a full equipped shelter is 100 UST (terra),  shipping is not included.

So, is anyone coming out of their shelters or do you still wait till 23:59 before giving up another doomsday that never came?

Basically we all want that to happen but I think we also need to be realistic,
with market conditions to date I don't see that will happen,
but again we never know what will happen in the future because the crypto market is difficult to predict

I don't think this month's increase is a sign that the market is going for a bigger bull run, because the level of Bitcoin's price increase this month is still not too far from the $20K price and it's also still very close to its lowest price this year in Bitcoins. So a bigger increase in my opinion is still not happening for Bitcoin although I also expect that Bitcoin can be at $30K before the new year.

Yes, everyone should think in a logical as well as realistic direction because there is currently no bigger improvement in the market and what has happened this month is a very small improvement in Bitcoin, so everyone shouldn't be as happy as it should be. expected is a bigger improvement from now.

The storm is indeed getting faster since October, of course this is the impact of the condition of inflation that continues to occur, and the exchange rate with USD decreases, but we must be optimistic that the future will improve, the thing we can do is by active and continue to utilize the existing resources .

November 1st on the calendar... Did I miss something? Where did it storm? Who got hit by the storm? What terrible / creepy / unexpected happened?
The only thing that can be seen, according to some fluctuations, is fraud in the oil and gas market. Although .... oil after the March and June peaks fell to the bottom ... Gas, after the August peak, also fell by 1/3 in price. Now some "personalities" of course are trying to spoil the whole world and are trying to undermine the price. But this is unlikely to give a result.
Europe is ready for winter, there are gas reserves, supplies have already been replaced by 75% with stable supplies from adequate suppliers.
Everything else is a temporary consequence of a terrorist war unleashed by a terrorist country against virtually the entire world. Nothing, and it will pass with the disappearance of the terrorist regime and the country :)

It is uncertain how long this will last for this year, Inflation may not have an overall impact in the short term, although the effect of inflation does play a role in the exchange rate and this will at least last until the end of the year, if the rally storm has not found a recovery, the annual cycle will not seen at all until now, if you look at the condition of ATH last year.
We expect this storm to last until the end of the year, although finding a recovery, it will not reach the next ATH for the year.

I have felt an inflation storm since the last 3 years because of the pandemic and made some of the business units that I have, namely the restaurant and daily house rental, even I have to stop 4 employees and now a lot of free time so I return to the internet to look for business opportunities the trend.

In the end, October was not as bad as it might have seemed in the first days of the month, but there is nothing to get excited about either. We have high inflation, forecasts of power outages in winter and the war is doing more and more damage. The euro has lost 15% of its value against the dollar,

Big falls in the stock market occurred in October but in this one, within the downward trend, it was not a disaster, although I don't think the situation is for many joys either.

I am not surprised about stompix, as he has been an optimist for long, even since high inflation started a few years ago, before the war. If the EU starts to grow 3% and inflation goes down to 2% I don't know what he will do, build a paper airplane with that toilet paper and fly away, I guess.

You see this is where you got everything wrong
First, I will raid a shop for sunflower oil for the engines, then I need a ton of wood for the structure, don't know where I will get this since Europe has cut all its forests for heating and it takes 4000 years according to some to replace it, then, need to pack a ton of molded bread since that's all we can afford, and then, with the plane being a decoy for the Illuminati and I will paddle in my tinfoil boat to Salvador!

No seriously, what do you*(^{general question, not addressed specifically to you})  get from always thinking the worse will come?
Instead of being optimistic, seeing how life is full of fun moments, making everything of every second should I have spent all these years since 2009 in a cave knowing the debt crisis will destroy the world, then the Eu will split into 1000 pieces, then covid will kills us all, only to grow old and look back and see half of my life was gone thinking how I'm going to suffer?
Probably this is the only good thing I've got from my farmer's bloodline since obviously, I didn't get to ride a fire-spitting donkey, the trust in a new year coming after this one, a cycle that never ends no matter what humans do, no matter what happens there will be a new beginning in spring and a new year.


Weird, I see that every market (that counts) ended up higher than it started in October, so can you show me this "downward" trend you're talking about?

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/20/blobe3b58988818efb83.png
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/20/blob807f9b9611392054.png
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/20/blob315f7579ac1e4de0.png


 

October there was a storm of inflation that made the prices of daily necessities continue to rise, in my country the current economic condition is very difficult because of many things, such as weather or climate conditions that are difficult to predict so that farmers fail to harvest and make commodity prices skyrocket, even many foodstuffs currently have to be imported from another country.

November will be much harsher as war intensifies, grain contracts are suspended, which will push us into the same food shortages as previous months and is likely to push inflation even higher. The Fed will announce rates tonight and we could very well see bloodshed in financial markets once again. October went by without major events but November and December will be really difficult for us. We have a lot of events in the last 2 months of this year, take shelter, the storm is still raging.

My country lives in a situation similar to yours. The Ukrainian crisis came to add to our suffering in a poor economy. Most of the products are missing and the quantities of storage for supplies are not enough for more than a week. This is what caused a stifling social crisis. The state was forced to borrow from the International Monetary Fund in return for abiding by unfair conditions, including lifting subsidies on basic materials, freezing recruitment and wages in the public services, in addition to laying off a large number of employees. We are waiting for a case of congestion expected during the current month of November.

The state said that the financial condition was very difficult, many state debts had not been paid and the impact was increasingly difficult for the cost of living, now for treatment in health services you have to pay because the state only pays for certain types of diseases.

True pandemic had been a huge test for all of us.  Many have lost their jobs, many businesses had shut down and the emotional terror it brings to all of us made us afraid to go out in crowds.  Then when everything is going normal, then war between Russia and Ukraine erupts making it more difficult for us since the price of basic needs skyrocketed while we are still recovering from the pandemic.

---

OT

Btw, here in the Philippines, we are really literally forced to take shelter this October because lots of strong storms visited us this October.  :D

It was as always, a very worse situation to some people and not such a big deal for others. I personally never found this to be a scary situation, but I do find it something that does impact the market. Even though we haven't seen a doom, we have seen people who waited for the doom, and that does change the market a bit, prevents a big increase for example, even if it doesn't crash.

That’s why I believe that we shouldn't really be worried about any doomsday, but as long as people are expecting a doom, we should also not expect for a huge increase at the same time neither. It just stays.. like straight up stays the where it is and that’s not really exciting neither.