Take shelter, a storm is coming in October.

[TimeTeller]

Being a strong heart person to face the bearish crypto market now.Selling of governments bonds was increase the money flow among the governments.So we expects some good flow among the people by the schemes.They also make some changes in the flow of money to the crypto trading by the people due to the excess money among the traders and exchanges.If nuclear will exploid,it will impact the world economy for sure.

This is why people are advise to diversify their portfolio, stocks or bonds, real-estate, jewelry and not only crypto assets.
If you know there's a situation that is coming, you will prepare for something that you think you can overcome.
In case, you can sell whatever you think is the best for the situation. But you won't go bankrupt for sure.
Diversification is the key if you know something worst is to come. Even if one of them will goes to zero, you have other backups to go to.

[qwertyup23]

Being a strong heart person to face the bearish crypto market now.Selling of governments bonds was increase the money flow among the governments.So we expects some good flow among the people by the schemes.They also make some changes in the flow of money to the crypto trading by the people due to the excess money among the traders and exchanges.If nuclear will exploid,it will impact the world economy for sure.

This is why people are advise to diversify their portfolio, stocks or bonds, real-estate, jewelry and not only crypto assets.
If you know there's a situation that is coming, you will prepare for something that you think you can overcome.
In case, you can sell whatever you think is the best for the situation. But you won't go bankrupt for sure.
Diversification is the key if you know something worst is to come. Even if one of them will goes to zero, you have other backups to go to.

I agree, diversification can be definitely helpful and must be exercised in order to maximize your earnings especially during a calamity. But another crucial factor must be said- investments are always liquid. Meaning, you can always convert all of your investments to cash especially if you need the funds during an emergency.

While a family must have an emergency fund ready for any calamity, you can always convert your investments to cash when the need arises. Remember, investments are also resources that you can use especially when you definitely and significantly need the cash to use.

[Poker Player]

Talk of a possible Lehman bankruptcy or a real estate bubble bursting also provoked laughter not so long ago. Do I remind you how that turned out?

Even a broken clock is right, or how one of the users here said:

Same goes for Zerohedge, the site that predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions.

If you keep chanting every month that a crisis will come and you live enough you might see one, if you're unlucky like my grandparents who learned every day the US evil empire will fall, you might, well, not see it in your lifetime. Do you know what amuses me the most? The thing that people here who all the time are laughing about Bitcoin obituaries make the same mistake again when looking at the other markets, I said it, the only thing that died more times than BTC in the last 10 years is the $, and as you can see..

I just don't understand why you are quoting Zerohedge. The source I posted does not quote ZH, as much as this topic reminds you of them, and yesterday CS shares went as low as 12%, which points out that investors were not trusting, regardless of what ZH says or not.

Credit Suisse Plunges 12% as Concerns of Going Bankrupt Spike

Regarding the dollar, I have made reference to the fact that China is going to counterattack, not by far it is going to collapse the USD. Other currencies will collapse much sooner, and in the current crisis it has only been strengthened. That is why China wants to fight back.

[Ahli38]

The world economy is in a state of serious crisis. But somehow I look to Europe which is in a difficult position. They don't seem to have much choice. they seemed to be pressured from various parties. Today 1 euro = 0.98 USD or thereabouts. this is the worst economic crisis for Europe. This high inflation is indeed natural after the pandemic. but this was made worse by the Russian-Ukrainian War. This is where Europe made the wrong decision at that time by not being neutral. and even boycott one of the parties. although this action will not bring benefits to Europe. instead it brought trouble as it does today.

and when it comes to inflation in various countries, the prices of goods are increasing or getting more expensive. then it's actually the impact of Shock Manufacturers. that is because during the pandemic many factories were closed and many of the surviving factories reduced employees. so production decreases.
so the supply is reduced. because the interest in goods during the pandemic is low. and that's fine during a pandemic.

but when the pandemic is over. Everyone who originally refrained from shopping for a product became unable to hold it back. and release the desires that were buried during the pandemic and release those desires when the pandemic ends. And what is overwhelmed, of course, is the producer who provides the goods. They are not prepared for sudden craze or increased shopping demand or interest. while many factories have already closed. and those who survive are short of employees in increasing the amount of production. So there is an imbalance between the supply of goods and the demand for goods. that is one of the triggers of inflation that occurs. although other triggers are also more. followed by other triggers such as a lot of tension or disputes between countries. and Russia's war with Ukraine that had the most impact, of course.

at this time what we have to do is to secure our assets so that they are not too affected by the decline in the value of the currency that we hold or that we keep in the Bank. we better exchange our money into Gold or some land. and if you still have money in the bank then I think withdrawing it now is a wise thing. because we do not know how severe this economic crisis will be. and it could make the bank in our area bankrupt.

[stompix]

I just don't understand why you are quoting Zerohedge. The source I posted does not quote ZH, as much as this topic reminds you of them, and yesterday CS shares went as low as 12%, which points out that investors were not trusting, regardless of what ZH says or not.

Credit Suisse Plunges 12% as Concerns of Going Bankrupt Spike

Because at some point a word gets a new meaning, even if it's not quoting ZH it's still ZH material, much like... a homer for example


And what about those investors, cause after the panic sell there was a panic buy since well, shares were trading above starting price at the end and I'm pretty sure all the doomsdayers and shorters are really not having a nice morning today:

https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/cs

What was the nickname of those guys, ...weak hands? Lol!

Regarding the dollar, I have made reference to the fact that China is going to counterattack, not by far it is going to collapse the USD. Other currencies will collapse much sooner, and in the current crisis it has only been strengthened. That is why China wants to fight back.

And I told you it's not a counterattack it's emptying the pockets yelling take all my money and stop hitting me 

[Lucius]

Exactly, just to line this with the above-mentioned crisis, the real one is catching everyone but a few by surprise, those that make it over twitter one year before it happens are as accurate as shit! DB has collapsed a hundred times, CS the same, let's not even mention JPM, how many have been burned by shorting Tesla (mentioning this because I know how much you like the guy  ), and many many others.
Of course, at one point it will happen, but this monthly doom is really getting boring so, bring it already!

I call him Mr. Mars for a good reason, because it seems that his body is here, and his soul (if he has one at all) is at least on Mars or even somewhere further away. In addition, the man is a proven manipulator of the stock market and was punished by the SEC, and for me personally, he did a lot of damage to Bitcoin with his business moves. The man has his positive sides if we consider that he donated satellite internet devices to Ukraine, but today he surprised me again (unpleasantly) with his peace proposal and I believe that he angered all patriotic Ukrainians.

If you keep chanting every month that a crisis will come and you live enough you might see one...

Let's just look at the man who was nicknamed Dr. Doom (Nouriel Roubini) who probably talks about disasters and collapses of world economies all his life and is now probably experiencing the peak of his career as an eternal pessimist and surely tells everyone "I said it would happen".

[BrotherCreamy]

So folks,

If we are headed for a major recession, what’s the play?

If I’m to diversify my portfolio away from holding BTC, what should I hold in its stead?

Should I be holding USD, gold or something else?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

The current economic situation is the most similar to the 2007 crisis since Bitcoin was created

I'm just curious, as I don't know how old you are: do you remember that crisis and how it all played out?  I remember it well, especially the absolutely devastating hit the stock market took, which can be plainly seen on a 20-year chart of the S&P 500:



People were losing their houses because they couldn't afford them anymore (though many shouldn't have bought them in the first place), unemployment skyrocketed, and every day in the news you'd read about banks in the US shutting down.  It was a triple threat crisis, with the housing and stock markets getting slaughtered, as well as the banking system. 

Following that, the brilliant idea of "Quantitative Easing" was carried out, and the printing presses at the Federal Reserve went BRRR for years, in part leading us to the inflationary spike we're seeing today.  I'm not really sure if the economy of 2022 is nearly as bad as the 2007-09 crisis, but it certainly could get there quick.

The war in Ukraine continues, with veiled threats from Russia to use nuclear weapons and private response at the highest level from the US saying that if that happens they will respond.

That whole thing baffles me.  And I'm not sure how the US would respond, but if it was with nuclear weapons, that would be suicide. 

[BrotherCreamy]

So folks,

If we are headed for a major recession, what’s the play?

If I’m to diversify my portfolio away from holding BTC, what should I hold in its stead?

Should I be holding USD, gold or something else?

Holding and accumulating BTC during this season is actually a smart idea. I believe that it's a perfect time to collect and store Bitcoin while the market is still in the bearish season. We can't expect a huge crypto price strike during this recession period because the market is merely affected by the economic crisis so holding will still be a good move. The market will still get better soon so we have to be patient.

Except as everyone has pointed out, Bitcoin will be dumped by a lot of people when they are forced to tighten their belts, and as they try to derisk themselves - bitcoin is seen as a risk asset by a lot of people.

Bitcoin has not seen a major recession yet. So a major global recession is uncharted territory for bitcoin.

I am also worried about my local currency (A U D), although we managed to mostly avoid the 2008 recession.

[Lucius]

That whole thing baffles me.  And I'm not sure how the US would respond, but if it was with nuclear weapons, that would be suicide. 

I already wrote in this topic that the US and NATO will respond to a nuclear tactical attack, and their position is quite clear - the response would be exclusively with conventional weapons against all Russian targets in Ukraine - but given that Russia has annexed parts of occupied Ukraine, that would mean that NATO attacks Russian territory, which means that Russia has the right to retaliate with strategic nuclear weapons, which means that all large cities in the northern hemisphere would become targets.

The simulation was not done a few years ago, and that Plan A would actually be the end of the world as we know it today. The fate of the world, as I have already written, is in the hands of a man who is completely obsessed with his idea of a great Russia at any cost, and on the other hand, a senile old man who can no longer appear in public without causing some new ridiculous situation.

[Poker Player]

Because at some point a word gets a new meaning, even if it's not quoting ZH it's still ZH material, much like... a homer for example


And what about those investors, cause after the panic sell there was a panic buy since well, shares were trading above starting price at the end and I'm pretty sure all the doomsdayers and shorters are really not having a nice morning today:

https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/cs

What was the nickname of those guys, ...weak hands? Lol!

Well, if anything, the strong hands that have HODLed CS stock since the top have lost something like over 90% of what they invested. The price at the top was around 90CHF and today it is at 4. So a very good investment by all accounts.

 

I'm just curious, as I don't know how old you are: do you remember that crisis and how it all played out?  I remember it well, especially the absolutely devastating hit the stock market took, which can be plainly seen on a 20-year chart of the S&P 500:uicide. 

I am middle-aged, and, yes, I remember that crisis, but the aftermath was not experienced in the same way in the USA as in Europe, because while the stock market there recovered in 3 years, the Euro Stoxx 50 has not yet recovered its maximum value.

In the EU in 2012 there was a sovereign debt crisis and there was talk of the possible breakup of the euro, in Cyprus there was a run on the market in 2013, Greece was bailed out, etc. and only when the president of the ECB at that time, Mario Draghi pronounced "whatever it takes" the EU began to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

That whole thing baffles me.  And I'm not sure how the US would respond, but if it was with nuclear weapons, that would be suicide. 

I already wrote in this topic that the US and NATO will respond to a nuclear tactical attack, and their position is quite clear - the response would be exclusively with conventional weapons against all Russian targets in Ukraine - but given that Russia has annexed parts of occupied Ukraine, that would mean that NATO attacks Russian territory, which means that Russia has the right to retaliate with strategic nuclear weapons, which means that all large cities in the northern hemisphere would become targets.

The simulation was not done a few years ago, and that Plan A would actually be the end of the world as we know it today. The fate of the world, as I have already written, is in the hands of a man who is completely obsessed with his idea of a great Russia at any cost, and on the other hand, a senile old man who can no longer appear in public without causing some new ridiculous situation.

I think that since both sides know that playing with fire could lead to the total destruction of humanity, it is unlikely that they will start playing with atomic bombs. But in wars you never know. When the conflict starts to escalate sometimes things get out of hand.

[Lucius]

I think that since both sides know that playing with fire could lead to the total destruction of humanity, it is unlikely that they will start playing with atomic bombs. But in wars you never know. When the conflict starts to escalate sometimes things get out of hand.

I think we should take into account that those who have the power to use nuclear weapons know very well that they will preserve their lives in their underground shelters, along with all those who are important to them. What is important to them is to save enough people to be able to start anew when the nuclear winter is over. When we take all this into account, along with the fact that some of the famous people of the world are advocating the depopulation of the world, then we cannot feel too calm, although we should always count on that spark of human reason and humanity.

[stompix]

Well, if anything, the strong hands that have HODLed CS stock since the top have lost something like over 90% of what they invested. The price at the top was around 90CHF and today it is at 4. So a very good investment by all accounts.

 

Which brings us to the obvious question, since we're talking about the final meltdown.
So if the drop from 90 to 64, 64 to 69, 69 to 64, 64 to 20 and 20 to 4 haven't triggered the apocalypse why do you assume that the 10% they lost on Monday and recovered on Tuesday will be the final nail in the coffin? 

That whole thing baffles me.  And I'm not sure how the US would respond, but if it was with nuclear weapons, that would be suicide. 

The fate of the world, as I have already written, is in the hands of a man who is completely obsessed with his idea of a great Russia at any cost, and on the other hand, a senile old man who can no longer appear in public without causing some new ridiculous situation.

There won't be any nuclear war, Putin is obsessed with winning, he is going to go for any straw he can grasp to proclaim a victory even in total defeat so for sure he will not go for an act after which there is nobody left to clap his hands when he does a PowerPoint slideshow of his achievements. Plus it's not like he has a real button and once pressed nukes fly, I'm pretty sure in this scenario if he does order this he will just get shot in the back the same moments, it's one thing for the elite and his generals to stay in Moscow, lose some yachts and a few millions out of their billion it's a different thing when they are confronted with losing their own lives.

[NotATether]

Shorting on Bitcoin 6-month (or any length for that matter) futures is actually not the correct decision to make when faced with events like in the OP.

That's because we will probably get a little breathing space soon, purely from a market trading point of view, before those gains are reversed by the events to come shortly.

Keep in mind that Bitcoin has not sunk below $18K so far, confirming my hypothesis that Bitcoin price does not go below previous halving cycle ATH. Therefore, longing on 3-month Bitcoin futures (like $22K or $23K) is probably a good way to make a small amount of $$$. (Better now, before 2023 rolls out in earnest - nothing spectacular really happens on New year and in the December holidays.)

[tabas]

Another news that I've seen a few days ago that could also be threatening was when Tokyo residents has been advised to relocate and warned about the recent missile launched over their city by the North Korea.

Source: Japan residents wake up to rare J-Alert missile warning

We're not even recovered yet from all of the devastation made by the covid pandemic, Ukraine and Russia war and now this. There's also the China-Taiwan that could also pop anytime from now on and there goes the ally of China and Russia which is the North Korea.

[mindrust]

Take shelter in what?

Cash? Losing value to inflation.

Gold? Unless it is physical it don't make much sense and physical is hard to store, hard to convert to FIAT (merchants rip you off with spread)

Crypto? Going down

Stocks? Some of them are actually doing alright but it takes skills to find those

Bonds? Down

Real Estate? Bubble, will pop

[yhiaali3]

I expect that the month of October will be bad for the global economy in general, as well as for Crypto, but it will not be the worst because next winter things will get worse as a result of the entry of severe cold and the need for Europe to heat in conditions of fuel shortage, at that time I think we will see a major crisis as a result of increased demand for Fuel, and this will lead to an increase in the prices of all materials, especially foodstuffs, and of course this will reflect worse on the economy.

[Smack That Ace]

Another news that I've seen a few days ago that could also be threatening was when Tokyo residents has been advised to relocate and warned about the recent missile launched over their city by the North Korea.

Source: Japan residents wake up to rare J-Alert missile warning

We're not even recovered yet from all of the devastation made by the covid pandemic, Ukraine and Russia war and now this. There's also the China-Taiwan that could also pop anytime from now on and there goes the ally of China and Russia which is the North Korea.

North Korea's ballistic missile test is not new, it can be said to happen every year. They are just trying to protect their sovereignty as long as the US and South Korea don't threaten their national security then they have no reason to go to war with anyone. They are an eccentric country but they have never hurt anyone, if America didn't make things tense then nothing would happen.

China and Taiwan are probably the issues we need to worry about, I predict a war is definitely inevitable. But now that possibility is not possible when China at home is also experiencing economic difficulties so they will not rush to act at this time.

[adaseb]

Well the Credit Suisse was a big bear trap. If you listened to all the panic and FUD you would be negative -25% right now if you shorted it. Basically the stock opened down, and completely reversed and finished the week at +25%. Wonder how many are underwater right now.

This is proof you can't take everything you read on the internet and crypto twitter too seriously. If Credit Suisse was actually going to default, you would be the last to know about it, not the first. Similar to how Lehman brothers and Bear Stearns went down. Only the elite knew in advantage and not the general public.

[CageMabok]

Bitcoin is certainly a coin that will be stable and the storm as it is currently only temporary, even smart investors see this as an opportunity to buy more, bitcoin trend globally is still good and continues to increase.

Bitcoin will not be stable in the market, because the reason for the decrease and increase in price that always occurs in Bitcoin makes Bitcoin not a stable coin in the market.
And that's actually a very good thing for those who like to trade in the short term even though the price volatility isn't as big as it is now (between $18K to $20K), but it's still very good for those looking to make a profit in the short term.