Bitcoin Forum

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Hopefully it would be already green for the last quarter or few months of this year.If we do look on the technical aspect then it had already formed that descending triangle which we could really presume
out that this might be the bottom line for possible reversal or change trend but we cant really be always sure and do still have those doubts.Even myself doesnt really expect nor being that too hopeful
when it comes to this because you cant really be able to tell if the price would be making out that breakout on that strong support.
Expect the unexpected as always and the most important is placing up yourself on the bottom, if not then do DCA as always.

This whole year has been a revision of prior pricing from the very top top back to the lows.  The only thing to debate now is have we finished the lowest prices or does it need to explore all of the prices in the teens before we are done.   
  I do think we can end the year higher at green if not a large magnitude move but I wouldnt want to bet on it until I see this next move complete or fail.  This is the 50 day average, I just need to see us trade above it convincingly for some time then I believe the whole quarter will be green and that too will be a confirmation of price action.  Ultimately we benefit from BTC being more solid and sure of its own pricing under stress not just hype, buyers who leave etc.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AINvd.png

I think on Months of November and December it will start to bounce. Based on the past, these are the months that usually go up. Im noy expert on technical analysis but basic graph shows that its on consolidation and there will come a time it needs to break those hard resistance that weve been seeing these past few months. Of course Im not sure but accumulating now is good while everything is down. Well Im hoping for a good time it could recover and if not this year maybe in the next 2 yrs prior to bitcoin halving.

Probably just the same as the previous bear market of 2018-2019, not that much run, but probably just above $20k.

In December we might see an attempt to move at $25-$30k, but we might failed after several attempts and end the year around $20k-$22k.
And I don't see any lower lows, so it's good at least because there is a prediction that we might feel to a new floor price. But the price seems to be stabilizing just above $20k and this might be the case up to the end of the year.

I believe that what would happen with the price in the short term is it would still stay in the range of 13500 ~ 16000. A lot of people might be expecting that there would be a bull run since it's the holiday season, and a lot of people would have money. With the end of the year, it could still be in the 20k range or maybe lower.

It's not supposed to be a big deal to have consecutive quarters on the red since it happened with the green. It can occur in the red as well. It's optimistic to see it in the longer term, but it wouldn't be for a short time.

I don't expect that the entire four quarters of 2022 would all be in red. That would be too much. The first three quarters, they could be expected as the macro conditions of the whole global economy are in bad form thanks to the pandemic and all the economic response of countries. It definitely doesn't help that Russia attacks Ukraine and causes instability to the whole of Europe and even the rest of the world. But things are getting better now. So I'd expect Bitcoin to get better as well. Also October and even December are good months for Bitcoin. We will see if they repeat this time.

It is quite surprising that the first three quarters this year all closed with the bears prevailing, but the first and the third quarters were not that volatile, but the second quarter was very volatile. When I calculated the three volatility, not up to 50%, not up to those of the previous times, this still make me want to believe that we still have the best year of less volatility if compared to other years.

Fourth quarter is much more in favour of the bulls, but the low volatility still make me to be confused. Where bitcoin price is for now, it is confusing if the market may fall or not, maybe the consolidation would be at lesser price around $10000 to $15000, or if the price will increase or not.

But what I think about this is that the price of bitcoin may not increase above $30000 until next year. If not increase to that price till next year, that means we may begin next year with bull run that can increase bitcoin price up to half of all-time-high which is around $35000 or slightly more.

Nonetheless, it is good to hold now.

Well, if you count the quarters in the same year, you're right. Still, Q3/2014,Q4/2014,Q1/2015 for example were also consecutive red and, if we look like that even 4 consecutive red quarters did happen.
Plus, these 3 months were not as bad (in percent) like the 2018-2019 reds.


30-35k is a good range for the end of the year. Even maybe a bit optimistic.
I expect the bear market end in this Q4 and the price start slowly rise. Depending on how early or late the reversal happens, the price may get to only 25-30k, or to a better 30-35k.


That's correct. All the charts tell we're in HODL/buy zone (pricewise).

An increase of 5% will not change the price much, then 22,000 is enough to end the year with an increase compared to the previous quarter.
Therefore, even the conclusion on a high does not mean a high rise because of all the variables that are happening in the world.
Returning to the 30K levels seems like a dream at the moment due to the huge resistance at the 25K levels.

I also think BTC will retest below 17600 before pumping upward. If this really happens then it will be for a very short time and many will not be able to buy the dip. There is still negative sentiment going on.

If there are still people who are waiting for the last dip should already buy some because the market could show the opposite action too. Right now it's a cozy and uncertain situation going on in the crypto space because of the fed interest hike and Russia Ukraine war.

All this is correct, but... with recession knocking at our door people may not be so much willing to invest in anything, including Bitcoin, no matter how appealing it may look.
And this can affect the price in a bad way even if the bear market ends.

I understand the optimism of some who think that Q4 can't also be in the red, but I don't see why it wouldn't happen - after all, we are in a very specific period of high inflation in the midst of a bear market. What is positive is that, despite everything, the price (for now) has not tested any lower levels and that we see some very interesting headlines in various mainstream media where they start to wonder how Bitcoin manages to stay on the surface while everything else sinks into the red.

The longer we keep the current position, the better chances we have of not touching a new bottom, and this also means a better starting position for a new big bull run. Therefore, I expect the price to remain in the range of $18k to maybe a maximum of $25k, but with a very small probability that it will remain stable at the highest level.

This kind of situation is not new in the market. A large dept has been seen before any bull run. When you can't find any positive sign about bitcoin you should just wait and hold as much as possible. Bitcoin bullish trends are not always understood. No one knows when it will be bullish and when it will be bearish. However, in this unpredictable situation, following DCA is considered as a good decision.
There has been no major bull run since the beginning of this year till today. Hopefully, the market is likely to be bullish towards the end of the year.

Very nice and didatic statistics display. I think another red zone is probable for the Q4, what isn't too bad anyway, because it's preferable to have a red zone for each quadrimester of the year with a low negative fluctuation, than having a positive quadrimester on the middle, but followed by an insane loss of 40% in the last zone, like it happened in 2018. Let's hope bitcoin remains stable, so once this yearly cycle ends, the expectations of the market will be renewed. I believe for this year there isn't a major factor which could trigger btc to 30,000$-35,000$ price levels.

Bitcoins will follow it’s previous trends only.
As past 3Qs didn’t show any positive or green in price, so definitely the Q4 will be in red.
Yes Bitcoins might try to break the resistance and come above the struggling price segment, but that’s too hard and too early to predict.
All the Bitcoin holders, no need to panic, once Bitcoins catches it’s pace, it will definitely won’t stop. So don’t lose hope.

In some parts of 2022, we have seen some recoveries or greens but mostly we haven't broken 25k and above. I don't know if that is a sign that this whole year was a bear year. Also in some years the price can start positive but eventually it will go negative up until the last quarter so there's a possibility that it will happen again.

Mega pump for me is when the coins breaks their old ATH while 50 to 60k can only be said as a good recovery since btc already experience this level before. The price of 30k and 35k per btc is also not bad. At least some us can sell their btc to celebrate their holidays a little better while I don't expect the price to drop 17.6k anymore.

I don't expect a bull run in this year 2022. This is a bear market year so either the price will remain the same as they are now or we may see another drop to 14-15K as you have mentioned.
However, bitcoin will grow in the future and break its all time high in the coming years, so we need to be optimistic about bitcoin and there is no need to panic sell or get depressed seeing bitcoin dumping more in quarter 4 of this year.

Yes, maybe $25k is enough for me at least at the end of the year. In the background as you have said there are a lot of factors affecting world economy and it will affect the market as well. So if the world continue to suffer, then the market will be down in the last 3 months with minor price increase to $25k. $30k levels? at least we should have some good news to bring back the life in the market at this price range but I'm not sure if we are going to see something that big that will push it to $30k.

The old saying says "Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true", and the price of Bitcoin at such a low level would not only be a good opportunity for investment, but also a serious sign that most investors have started to lose confidence in Bitcoin. In a situation where the price would crash by as much as 50% compared to now, there are many more people who would panic sell, than those who would see it as an opportunity, and we see that with every serious price change.

Now the most we need is the stability that Bitcoin shows in relation to fiat currencies, and if it lasts long enough, maybe it will help to change the perception of the common man who still has a generally bad opinion about Bitcoin.

Or maybe we can look at how the relationship with the miners, as far as the hash rate goes or at least the profitability?

And in the last 7 days, as per cmc, we are somewhat in the positive side, but the last quarter is still that far so we will see if it will go down hard again or it will show some stability despite the current recession that the world is experiencing. And yes, hopefully the investors will flock again and not lose their confidence even if we are in the heart of the bearish cycle.

I would assume that it's not going to be that simple, either it's going to stay where it is right now, somewhere near 19k to 20k levels, or it is going to go up very high, not like 60k or something, but more like 25k or a bit higher.

If the price ends the last quarter with over 25k, doesn't matter if it is 25.1k or 28k, if it is above that level, we are going to end up seeing something much better in the long run for sure. That will benefit us a lot, and it's going to end up with a good profit for the first quarter of next year, and it will be a good year for all of us. This is going to be a big year for us all, we just need to wait a bit longer for sure.

Not expecting any huge movement because still the crisis still disturbing all economical or investment matters so maybe we cannot see any constant changes towards this year since for sure investors are not thinking about possible bull run to come. Maybe we will just remain playing at $20k price level or little more up on this figure since I don't see any exciting events that will happen in Q4 of the year.

I expect Bitcoin price would still stay around $19K-$21K since the economic recession and western economy are still not in good condition, so there's not many huge cash circulation on Bitcoin volume. I heard next year economy will be bad too, Bitcoin might slightly recovering on the next year. Many government also trying to make FUD regarding Bitcoin energy consumption too, so I don't expect Bitcoin price will pump at this and the next year.

Price is squished flat, till it breaks that sequence of nullification BTC likely just does more of the same.   We had an attempt to trade below support and also inversely attempts upwards, both resolved backwards to where they came from  with no greater effect.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AIMFJ.png

This is just daily bars since August, OBV indicator I think reflects that volume might make us bullish but thats a guess at possible divergence.  I still think we can further attempt to break price downwards but that attempt will not especially succeed, mostly its just time to find resolution in price and ultimately we then can rise.    It might just be BTC only rises when the wider market finds reasons accumulate, common currency losses value invariably a constant deterioration in the price denominator  and assets did not hence nominal price does rise.

2018 is the closest case to the current narket situation.

It was the all time high year and we get crashed for 40% by the end of the year after a great show off . I expect in this q4 2022 a downtrend continue and the price get cut off by 30% this time to around $14k , that's my price target.

Almost every year we used to experience good bounce in the market during the end months of the year. This time too the same is expected, but the reality can vary based on what we've achieved over the previous quarters of the year. Inflation serves to be a big problem around the world. Every government is taking measures to come out of inflation. The covid-19 slowed down the growth and followed is the war and other problems that kept the inflation growing. As stated something above $15k at the year end seems to be fair.

Probably it will be the time for bitcoin to bulish again, wherein at least on the current all time high because obviously bitcoin really making correction below and after the good progress last quarter it didn't came back again. So i believe the cycle still the same and before this year end for sure bitcoin will glow again in the market and will skyrocketed like what always happen after the massive decline. This is all a temporary situation for bitcoin.

It could be but maybe bitcoin still needs more time to start bullish again. The price of bitcoin is still around $19k-$20k so maybe we have to be patient again because it is not easy to move the price to start rising again. Besides that, the current price is not a guarantee of the lowest bitcoin price because the current price may drop again to a lower price than now.

But in the end, the price of bitcoin will definitely increase and we may not realize it later and we only know that it turns out that the price of bitcoin is already at its highest price. But we still hope that in Q4, this bitcoin price can start to increase, even if a little. If the price of bitcoin can return to $25k-$30k, maybe that is a sign for bitcoin to experience another bullish phase.

We never saw Bitcoin being the only token in a bullish movement, definitely other tokens should also be in an upward motion. At the present we are seeing the opposite wherein majority of cryptos are struggling to break margins and barriers. Now that we are already in the fourth quarter of the year, I guess it would be more realistic to view this year end as something not as most of us hoped and expected. Hopefully, early next year would be a better year for this industry. Many factors affected our assumption for this year such as economic crisis and conflict between countries, and this simply shows there are many things that could affect price predictions.

Well if the Russian vs Ukraine conflict ends shortly. There will be a huge rally across the board in stocks and in crypto. Along with a drop in inflation.

If the conflict does not end inflation will not be stopped for a minimum of 2-3 years.

Which means huge bond prices such as the US savings bond the I bond in particular is at 9.62% for at least six months once you buy it.

So it is perfectly pegged to the dollar why on earth invest in a pos coin or even btc when you are certain to get 9.62% for the next six months.


since 330 million people can buy it and with proper management they can buy up to 15000 worth a year that means as much as 330 mill x 15000 usd = 4.95trillion is available year after year after year.


even if only 500 billion is purchased it sucks the money away from crypto especially pos crypto which is essentially no more than a bond.


So all depends on the speed of that conflict ending.

My guess is the conflict continues one and on and on. Usually conflicts like this do exactly that.

So bitcoin will drift down and or sideways in quarter 4 of 2022  and quarter 1,2,3,4 of 2023 and Quarters 1,2,3 of 2024. But the 2024 election will alter it. That is worst case .

Best case we wake up tommorrow  and the Russian conflict with Ukraine has ended.

https://i.postimg.cc/yN7RgyKx/FRRVG.png

So this is my analysis based on the weekly time frame, and from this, I can safely say markets are getting ready for the pullback...which is popularly known around here as the Bullrun & looking at how long markets have been consolidating at the current low we are getting ready for the counter trend and bullish move at the same time. And using my gann box tool to draw my premium and discount clearly shows that the best targets price will want to sell from are around $44k-$48k or the top zone of $64k-$68k but the first zone does stand out as a good area to target.

As for Q4 which is a short term move, am bullish on this one and I see us closing the year around $21k-$25k before the big move ;)

We are almost at the end of Q4 2022. But the current situation can never be positive for Bitcoin. It's not just cryptocurrencies. The entire economy has come to a standstill ‍situation. However, several events are representing it positively for crypto. But when the world conditions will be good, we will definitely see the crypto at the top position. At this point we need to be more patient.

While I agree that the world economy doesn't look great and this is bound to be a problem for bitcoin (and other investments) price, you've confused something: we're only at the beginning of Q4. You know, Q4 means October, November and December; and we're just a little over half of October.
I am a bit worried, but I still hope the trend turns this year.

For me the Market will continue to consolidate and we will still be getting the little pumps and dumps within this zones were are in right now. I do think that the Q4 will still end in red, Literally there is no volume in the market right now, secondly I'm still expecting that the Fed will continue to raise interest rate come November and the market will take a beating for that.
Therefore, until the fundamental holders of Bitcoin starts getting stronger and stronger, that's the only time when I do think that the market will bounce back.

There is less money that will enter in btc but many of the btc users would sell some of their btc so to support their life outside making the price of btc decline. If the economy remains the same till next year then I don't think a recovery will happen but the price can rather dump more.

The issue about btc energy consumption isn't new but it was only opened up again after they witness that eth is transferring to proof of stake but I don't think this can contribute a lot in terms of price reduction. Miners can always use renewable energy anyway if they want to and still continue supporting btc. Governments should tell the truth that they only hate btc, not that they look concerned about the environment.

That could be a hard decision for btc holders, I mean the price is already declining, and if they sell they it's a lost for them. But for sure, they will have to buy it back at some time, when the price goes down this year or 2023.


The attack on bitcoin consumption will still be the biggest FUD, even in 2017 it was one of the topic and yet the price goes up because we are in a bullrun. So same thing will happen in 2024, there will be a lot of negative things but the price will grow no matter what kind of attacks or FUD by btc detractors.

I think Q4 will also end with a red zone, maybe around -10% to -20%.
I agree that the biggest drop should be in Q2 (-56,7%), but I suspect there will be another big drop before a rising trend. Moreover, we hear an issue about the recession, the demand in the market may decrease again. People are focusing on savings, they probably limit their funds to buying crypto coins, including BTC. Because of this reason, I guess the scheme will be similar as in 2018. The difference is in Q3, in 2022 will be no green zone.

In 2 months we will leave 2022 and if you see throughout the year from January then we can say that the market will be red, it is very difficult to rise because there is no positive sentiment, especially the global economic trend that continues to decline.

Yeah, so much for Uptober huh? I still think the fact that Bitcoin's never lived through economic turmoil such as we currently have -- and I won't pretend I don't think it'll only get worse before it gets better for everyone around the world -- means we cannot reliably hope that BTC market trends will shrug off the 3 consecutive quarters with a Christmas rally.


For me closing at 21k is just extending consolidation, still can't tell -- again because of the shitstorm happening around us economically -- if this results in massive drawdown or energised rally.

$25k closing would make me feel a lot better for sure.

We can expect a breakout, an attempt to move the price from the current drift because rarely is Bitcoin rated as more stable a standard then various other assets and measures.    In fact quite ironically if BTC did maintain a very steady price it starts to become higher utility in certain trading swaps for that stability, hence when we reach that point it will very likely change I think a bit like magnetic polar opposites can repel etc.   The tendency towards just one price recently is short term and would have to be confirmed in multiple ways just like any other kind of support or resistance, we are right on the weekly (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AICgm.png) average and we've tested downwards a number of times I think we go up a bit to test prices there.

After the bitcoin price has continued to decline since the end of 2021 or almost a year then I don't really expect much with the price of bitcoin, maybe the highest price until the end of the year is around $25k even many people believe the price will continue to decline to potentially below $17k.

It is time for thinking about sideways to recovery kind of market conditions. just 2% downfall in Q3 must be a typical sign about change in market sentiment which may grow bigger to compare against what we had in Q2. In my opinion we had already bottomed out for this cycle (and if not, we may still see another 10% of fluctuation before reversal). The current bear market started earlier than usual timing of bitcoin cycles hence we could expect the end of it earlier as well. Also, world economy is still in oscillation after pandemic hence we could expect impacts of that into bitcoin market.

Overall, we can expect something different that what we had in Q2 and Q3 which may last for another 10+ months. Usually the year before halving is known for sideways and all market scenarios are favoring that.

If wasn't because of the recession looming at large, I would've placed my bet on another bullish Q4 like almost every Q4 as before. But since this recession so no bullish for this Q4. If you're in the manufacturing sector, there was a grim situation. Most new orders are drying up, jobs are cut because of that. Seem like everyone in the US/EU tighten their wallet. The Consumer Price Index is increasing while Purchasing Power decreases indicating clearly the effect of inflation is kicking in.
What does this mean for Bitcoin and crypto overall? It means no more leisurely purchasing gifts and overspending on the Christmas and New Year's Eve seasons. Same for Bitcoin/cryptos, I expect strong sell orders took over the market instead of buying orders.

They are in a bearish cycle and maybe the 4 year cycle is still repeating itself, there are usually short-term rallies. With what's going on in the world, I really couldn't expect more, what we can expect is inflation will drop, and war will end, only these can help us think of a bull run in the last days of the year.

The decline in purchasing power is not only happening in the US and EU, if you live in a poorer country you will see how people are struggling with energy and expensive goods. People don't even have enough money to spend everyday so investing with them now is too far away.

Since the year is coming to an end soon, I expect the price of Bitcoin to reach $50k before the end of October so that it will allow investors to prepare well for Christmas and new year celebration.I don't think, the price of Bitcoin will remain low during Christmas and new year celebration, which is the best season many investors use to release their coins to the market to make a suitable profits that will help them to celebrate the new year very well in the community.

Now we are in December and it seems that there is no significant movement, maybe the price can return to the $ 20K level but I'm sure not long then it will go down below $ 20k, indeed the 2022 market is at a very difficult level because of the many FUDS after the emergence of the case FTX.