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If food shortages and price inflation hit. Agricultural HODL could become a viable business strategy.

Similar to being an early investor in bitcoin. Getting in early on agriculture HODL could be a good investment.

Shopping in a supermarket we can see that almond nuts can sell for $10 a pound. When I see this, I wonder to myself how much time and energy would it take to grow 10,000 pounds of almonds to profit a cool $100,000. Does rain, sunshine and the tree do all of the work? If food shortages hit the price of almonds and other food assets could rise dramatically. Instead of $10 a pound. We might see $15 or $20. Profit margins could swell significantly due to circumstantial conditions. As we have seen with other markets posting record profits correlated with price inflation.

Depending on which zone we're located in and the climate. It may also become possible to produce niche luxury crops.

Rising cost of oil could greatly restrict foreign exports. Which could produce a high and growing demand for locally produced alternatives. Which would stack on top of existing favorable market conditions.

It is possible that there is someone in the world who will begin farming this year. Grow and sell a harvest. To produce more next year. Who will possibly become a millionaire through the process. Rising cost of oil and difficulty associated with shipping food products from overseas could all contribute to making it possible.

Anyways what do people think about this. Share your wisdom please.

I agree the idea is likely to see growth but how to capture it exactly is harder to do.  My idea is the tools of the trade and fertilizer especially could provide parallel to growth in demand and premiums for whole agriculture sector.    Commodities overall is a hard sector to master so Im averse to trying to hold onto any specific idea for a bullish market even wheat and sunflower oil which are subject to setbacks due to the war in east europe.

There isn't going to be a food shortage. 

Media talking BS point.  Stop listening to people that lie to you all the time.

we grow more food with less land then we ever have.   slightly less fertilizer = more land use.   its simple math. 

Demand and offer!
Just as how instead of $300 per barrel of oil how some idiots predicted we went down to 80$ and they need to cut production to even keep that level once something becomes more expensive it also becomes less sought after, and almonds, pistachios, and every single thing in this exotic category are the first on the list that will be dropped by the average consumer once it doubles in prices, reducing the demand and leaving you with increased costs to revenue ratio and a ton of competition.


2500Kg for a ha, so you need two hectares (5 acres if I'm not mistaken), but that's our full nuts so I guess three times the area at least.
Of course, you need irrigation, you need pesticides, and you also need to HODL your breath for 5 years till they make any serious fruit!
Still keen on doing it? Not to mention that's the packed resell price, not what you're getting for raw product, add another 10% loss just on the nuts that will be thrown away at sorting.

Also, there is one other huge barrier, you either need costly machinery for harvesting (there are special machines exactly for the above-mentioned almonds) or you have to rely on the quite unreliable available workforce which might lead to complete miss your targets or losing the major part of your product and get you in red from the start.

I think it's still in the early stages of getting in there as preparation and investing in future commodities that will be needed by billions of people and will continue to grow in demand as the world changes more rapidly due to innovation, technology, and climate change.

The demand for also food will only increase over time as an increasing global population puts more pressure on our natural resources causing food shortages.

Weather patterns that are increasingly unpredictable in the future are not only a viable business strategy, but wise readiness to fulfill basic needs for ourselves and our families is what needs to be prioritized.

It could be that the food will be more expensive than the price of Gold or BTC itself.

Great, so farmer even gets to enjoy his 5 years tenure to do additional businesses. May be by dedicating a hectare or something for quick grower veggies and sell them in the market. The life of farmer cycles around many things but not limited one crop I believe. They can always have seasonal crops growing around the calendar and get money from it. There are anyways dozens of varieties and kinds of veggies which can grow quickly.

If they just wanna focus on the nuts then they can dedicate half land for that matter.

The prices are obviously decided after all the investments. Not everyone needs to really "buy" heavy machineries rather they can rent it on per day charges basis or whatever is trend in westerns.

However, with more poly houses and hydroponics the supplies would keep growing irrespective of seasons and outsides calamities.

Considering the upcoming inflation; I believe we already looking at the risen prices for food. It's not about farm to customer selling issues, it's freakish global economic crisis started at one corner of the world and now everyone gets to "enjoy" it.

If we take into account the costs and risks of any production that requires time, knowledge and money, I wonder if it wouldn't be much easier to invest in 1 Bitcoin and profit maybe even more in the next 5 years? Of course, this is also a risk, but hazelnuts, walnuts, almonds and similar nuts are not something that a person cannot survive without, and as you say, these products will be the first on the list that people will give up in order to save for some other much more important foods.

I remember that in my country 5+ years ago chokeberry was a big hit and everyone planted it and hoped for a big profit, and today it is a profitable investment for a few, while others simply failed because the market became saturated with large quantities, along with the price which is quite high. I think the key is to find something that is interesting and that can be sold outside the local market, and for years I have known a man who produces exotic fruits and vegetables (https://www.exotic-king.com/hr), and they say that he is doing great considering that everything he produces is sold mainly on the EU market.

Oh yeah, we had that trend here too, but haven't seen a new one in years. maybe the miracles crop search is finally over!
Ostrich farmers, chinchilla farmers, Paulownia, all kinds of berries, mushrooms, and so on and on.
Of course, the final result was fairly obvious, the prices for those were high because only a couple of producers existed in the first place but when you go on and produce 100 times more demand won't come out of anywhere and the price will eventually fall fo most under the cost. Just like the saying about the gold rush, the ones making more money were the ones selling the pickaxes.


Oh no, just no!
It's not planting a few trees and for 5 years you take a beak, you need to take care of them, you need to water them, you need to check for disease or insects or rodents that might chew the bark in winter and the new branches in spring, you need to be careful how they grow and cut branches to keep the right size and the alignment so if you think you're just going to plant them and that's it you're having the same poetic view about farming and that's as far from reality as Disney movies. Not to mention you're going to look at a failure rate, you need to take those out replant, and many more.
If it were that simple everyone would be doing it, and as you can see, not many are!


You make it sound so easy, but who will lend you a cheap machine that has been bought with a few tens of thousands just like that? We're not talking of a chainsaw that you can take a break from and lend to your neighbors for a few days, these are specialized machines that are being used at the precise harvest time, so the one that bought it will be using it for his harvest and once he is done slight chances your fruits are not already rotting in the fields, and the ones buying machines just to lend them, guess how much they are going to charge extra?

It sounds easy because we are already doing that in my country, and I think there are many services like that everywhere throughout globe.

Like this: Catalogue:
Though requirements could be A-Z, most of the companies will provide almost all sort of machineries (& yes specialized too).

It's kind of new business stream. Fortunately it saves time and money for the farmer who can not afford to buy the few tens of thousand in one go! Rather rent it, use it and send it back. No maintenance too!

For example, there is also Grain Harvester which is around $64,500 (old model cost) for direct sell could be rented out at the rate of $15,000 per month. So lets say someone finishes their harvesting in 15 days then they could get away with it at 7.5k bucks.

For the next cycle anyways there will be no use for the harvester machine until next harvest comes up. So its better for that farmer to rent it rather invest that much amount at once or pay same money in the EMI's.

Like this one [ https://www.rentalyard (dot) com/listings/farm-equipment/for-rent/207714809/2014-killbros-1311 ]

So may be it's easy, and we don't really have to depend on the neighbor's machine.

It is not so easy and worthful like it sounds. It would be great if you could simply grow your crops, harvest everything and take it to the supermarket for profit.

However, supermarkets already have their suppliers who need to be regulated by the government in order to be able to sell the crops, what involves extra costs for the farmer and also for the supermarket due to taxes. Moreover, even if you manage to make the sale the supermarket pays much less for your crops than the final product's price.

Just as example, I collected eatable seeds from a local species of pine once and took it to the supermarket. For each kilogram I was paid 0,60$, while the supermarket sold each kilogram for 1,60$ in the end.

It doesn't feel rewarding. It feels exploitative and frustrating, because you had to do the most part of the job, which took time and effort, while the supermarket simply displays the products there and receive almost 200% of your profit.

Farmers have the liberty to hold onto produce, though logistically this isn't as easy because of spoilage. Secondly, prices are increasing because the cost to manufacturers are increasing, their profits are being eaten up by operating cost. I don't think the agriculture industry is the industry to generate a lot of wealth, the entire industry is propped up by subsidies.

On a side note, country's have been stockpiling their food and reducing their exports. They anticipate famine because of higher energy costs, so naturally, that drives global food prices up with less exports. If a country was so inclined, they could take advantage of a food shortage for profits.

Worked in grocery retail for many years. I came to an interesting conclusion. The problem of farmers oriented to the local market (and other producers of products also suffer from this) is that the market and relations between the producer and the end consumer are large retail chains. If you want to enter the network, "stand on the shelf" - pay. The price must be as the network player ORDERS. And so in everything. As a result, the manufacturer works on the verge of profitability, and the retailer, without making any special efforts, receives most of the income.

In our country (Ukraine), for about 5 years, the practice of "food fairs" has been working. And even today, when Ukraine is under the threat of a terrorist attack from Russia, and the southern and eastern regions are largely destroyed by Russian terrorists, it turned out that the prices at such fairs are quite competitive. And noticeably lower prices in retail chains! This applies to vegetables, fruits, meat and products from them, which are made by small farms or even private producers.

It is very easy to punch the calculator and estimate how much gain one can make investing in agriculture. But from experience farming is one of the riskiest businesses in the world, especially in my location. Just recently some part of my country is going through a flood disaster that has destroyed many lives and properties. Many mega-farms have lost millions because their farms have been destroyed by floods.

A few years ago I invested heavily in a cassava and corn farm. I put in my time and money to ensure that the farm succeeded. Close to the time of harvest, there was a community crisis that led to violent conflict and everybody had to run away from the community. I abandoned my farm because it would be risky to farm in a place where people are been murdered. It took about two years to resolve the conflict and when I came back my farm has been overtaken by weeds. The little plant that survived has been harvested by farm thieves.

I would rather invest in Bitcoin because it saves me a lot of time and strength. Farming needs quality time and consumes a lot of energy, hence it is better to put my money in Bitcoin and wait patiently.  

Its not the same.  :D

We know demand for locally produced food items is rising sharply due to inflating oil, shipping and transportation fees hammering food imports.

Food prices in stores have appreciated in value significantly. Rising demand won't be stabilized until store prices decline to normal values. That is a lot of volume to fill.

Competition is also declining. Most agriculture relies heavily on fertilizer derived from natural gas. Given current natural gas trends, those who know how to produce organic alternatives could have a significant advantage.





I think almonds were a bad example.

I saw lychee fruit selling on amazon for $17 a pound. There are years where I might throw away 50+ pounds of lychee as there is too much to pick and eat. The lychee tree doesn't receive much maintenance or fertilizer. Although now I am trying to take better care of it and grow more of them. Pineapples are another very low maintenance crop here in the tropics.

This isn't to suggest that selling nuts or fruit on amazon is the most profitable or best enterprise. But I think there are some niche areas where people with excess land might grow things with low maintenance and upkeep. Which they can sell to produce something similar to passive income.

As for targeted agricultural markets, I have been thinking about cacao beans. There was a case years ago where the supply of cacao was bought up and centralized if I remember correctly. That might be worth an attempt at agricultural development if its a monopolized market where prices could be artificially inflated.

Jackfruit could be a good option as I think it can produce fruit in as little as 18 months. Papayas are said to fruit in as little as 7 months. I had a papaya growing that fruited very quickly before being utterly destroyed by white flies.

Anyways hope everyone is doing well and having success with whatever they're doing. As long as supermarket prices remain high, I would guess there is plenty of space for profit for anyone interested in entering agriculture.

A perfect example of what I was talking about, Disney-style planning and reality.

In your plan you've already identified the supplier, you know the price at which you will get it, you drive to the dealer, you rent your harvester and you're good to go!

In reality, you've just spent $7,500 on a grain cart!!!! Which as the name implies does not harvest a thing!
So, don't you think that the moment you can't differentiate between a gain cart and a harvester, is the moment you should look for another hobby and realize that in the future business planning agriculture and farming are off the list?  ;D

If things would be that simple everyone would be into it, but they aren't, I spent my childhood at a farm, and I've spent more than a decade working again there after my college years for everything, from accounting to actually driving that stuff around, I wouldn't want to go back even if I would have to choose between cleaning sewers with a pressure washer and farming! And you know why? Cause cleaning a damn farm is sometimes worse than a sewer!!!
There is Disney where every animal tends for itself and only comes to you to give you milk while trees and crops grow by themselves and there is a reality where one infected animal and you have to put them all down and one hailstorm and the whole orchard is ruined not just for this season but maybe even the next also!


Everything will be a bad example if you think of making money without work!
If things were that simple everyone would, how do you even say it, not doing a thing and earning money?
But as you can see, it's more and more quitting rather than approaching this field, because it's a risky pain in the ass low margin crap!

That aside, it's one thing growing a few fruits in your 100square yards garden and having this and that and just doing hobby work on them, that works, and it's enjoyable, but a totally different thing to take care of 100 trees. If we weren't a continent apart I would have invited you to come and pick some plum fruits next year, let's see how many 5kg boxes would you be able to do till you give up and you realize you're harvesting fruit at a lower value than flipping hamburgers at McDonald's!

Agriculture is a very important resource in human life, this commodity is very promising if one can take advantage of fertile land for farming, unfortunately the younger generation now considers agriculture not a promising job, even though there are many successful people out there pursuing agriculture.
Even if inflation starts to occur, we can prepare household needs with resources from agriculture, especially if we are able to plant basic needs on a large scale.

As a farmer this thread is hilarious. Farming is the probably some of the hardest work you will ever do. There are no days off, summer vacations, family days... None. Your sick? so what you must work.

Remember your not making a dime until that crop sells. Many confuse gentleman farming for local markets with true ag, they ain't the same.

Almond trees can take up to 5–12 years to produce almonds, but Bitcoin is halved every 4 years. So, while someone who invested in one Bitcoin may have taken their profit and moved on, the farmer who invested in almonds may still be preparing to harvest the almonds.

 
If the agricultural hodl should come into play, I think it should be on more important food. In my country, maize takes only 60-70 days before it's due for harvest and maize is used to make other processed foods like;

cornmeal, grits, starch, flour, tortillas, snacks, and breakfast cereals, Ref. (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311932.2016.1166995)

The agriculture hodl is somewhat similar to the shitcoin hodl. :) It is possible that the agriculture you grow (if the agriculture is well chosen) will rise sharply in price due to increased demand and bring you a profit of many X-s. There was an investment here, not just money, but time, human resources, and so on. In the case of shitcoins, a similar investment, but only money. And there, and there, there is a chance to increase your costs, but there is also a chance to get losses. Moreover, in the case of agricultural crops, the risks are much higher due to the high threshold for invested resources and various force majeure factors, such as agriculture failure, natural disasters, agriculture losses during harvesting and transportation. That is, if we consider systematically, then there are similar moments. I would prefer to invest in shitcoins because it is easier and less risky. Better yet, invest in something else that is safer than shitcoins and requires less stress, as is the case with agriculture.

I like the way you think. Instead of investing in crops and I shifting towards ag land ETF's. Take my cryto profits and add something tangible to the pie without much risk in crop failures.

I'm not understanding what you saying, sorry.  What is unfair? Hold ag?

Other ways to earn a profit in farming? It's pretty much the way it's been since the beginning of time. you produce a crop and sell it. It's mostly one shot.

There is wisdom in this because even apart from inflation, a lot of other factors are contributing to food shortages including natural occurring disasters. Recently there is heavy flooding in my country and a lot of farm lands have been affected, this in the long run means that we are expecting food shortage if care is not taken. You can imagine the position that people who have stored up food produce are right now which is at an advantage and to sell at any price which they deem fit. Investment in agriculture is something to really consider especially right now. There is this popular Real Estate saying that I would like to relate to agriculture, "The best time to invest in agriculture was yesterday, the next best time is today for the future".

The better way to create a demand is stop or pause the supply.When the demand of certain products increased,it includes the agriculture.We can able to had some good prices for it.Now every where oil demand was increased due the fact,for daily three times we using oil.Then the supply of oil in many country is low.So the government procurement of oil seeds for people is one way of demand.Secondly the foreign country made a startup based on oil in demand country.So like this foreign nation earn more from us using oil.

Agriculture is a good profession, it's a profession that gives money and also gives food. But it is not easy, I have been involved in agriculture, there is much expenses in agriculture especially as the inflation is ongoing, the cost of fertilizer, the cost of manure and other equipments is very high, apart from the mentioned above, the cost of man power that is invested in agriculture is much.
However, when the reward starts coming, you will surely smile. Harvest is always very nice and lovely. With the right plan and if you have a piece of land for agriculture it is a profession that is advisable to venture.
In the coming years most countries will surely fall back to agriculture to sustain her economy especially African and Asian countries due to the high inflation.

Definitely this is the right time for African countries to invest in agriculture the solely dependance in crude oil mostly Nigeria here has affected the economy. There many states here in Nigeria where Rice farming has been taking into consideration. Since the constant increase in flooding, people have run into Irrigational farming and its encouraging to see government support. A state here in Nigeria exported more than billions of Naira worth of rice. This is encouraging not just for the diversification of economy but it also creates job opportunities.

Although I don't buy the idea of agricultural HODL because it causes increase in price of agricultural produce

Rich Farmers in the world  (https://www.google.com/search?q=which+richest+man+from+agriculture)

Farming use to be a business where people get profit but I don't know of this time around because people are now looking in the area of oil business, metal and more but neglecting farming that apart from selling the farm products, it provides food for the family. Many people have been rich from farming like in the list below, it has given this set of people wealth that shows it is profiting.
https://i.imgur.com/VMf2iqc.png

Rich people from other business also do farming to branch into another source.. As there is now increase in the price of products, I think more farming will increase next year with the rate of scarcity of food in the world and high rate of inflation.

The value of firewood and wood stoves are climbing steeply in many areas.

Is it fair to say that the value of produce, plants and agriculture will follow the same trend.




Here in the tropics I have pineapple plants that are flourishing with zero maintenance. Some things do well with little care.

Personally, I used to enjoy doing labor work. I've done construction and labor work in the past. Its not a big deal.

The only thing that sucks about farming for me are mosquitos and biting insects. That's the only thing that would present a challenge if I chose to pursue a full time agriculture career. The physical work would be easy as it wouldn't be as difficult as the job I used to have.

I have a 50 pound bag of concrete outside. I tried to lift it with one hand. Wasn't that hard. I can carry stuff ok.

Having a garden in your backyard can set you apart from the other, and in addition to helping you keep an eye on global inflation, you may develop the habit of planting more as time goes on, leading to a greater output of goods.

Well works are done easier with words than action. The very cost of almost nuts you mentioned isn't the cost of the raw nuts but the coat of it after all processing and packaging.  Agriculture is very lucrative and very much undermined maybe because of the activities involved. Agriculture isn't a one day job as it actually follows the principles of garbage in garbage out which implies that the amount of profit depends on the amount of capital and invested in it as well.

Agriculture despite it's challenges as been one of the major backbone of a thriving economy, but subsistence agriculture wouldn't yield much result. So possibly to gain over $100,000 at a time from a particular yield then one should be ready to have invested definitely more than have if the gain expectations and massive labour in the process as well.

That is an interesting take on the global food situation we are facing this year. Food price have been rising for years now, but the rate at which the prices seem to go up increased a lot since the Ukraine-Russia war. Starting to grow and harvest your own food locally could be a good idea to reduce food prices if you have the land to cultivate it. No idea though how hard or easy it is to get your hands on some farm land. Prices for residential or commercial land are at all time highs in my country and it's nearly impossible to find something on the market right now. From a friend whose family own some farm land outside from the city for generations I know that they get letters from time to time with offers to buy the land, but they are not selling it. Another factor will be fertiliser which got a lot more expensive this year and increased cost more for farmers. In my country we saw a lot of protests from the farmers this year who are struggling to make a profit. I am not sure what are the return expectations for a farmer at the start. It might take several years to break even and get the money back for all the equipment you need to buy in the beginning. 

I'm sure you have no idea what it's like to grow almond trees.

To grow almond trees you first have to have a piece of land, if you don't have it, you will have to buy it. Of course, agricultural land is a lot cheaper than building land, and it will depend a lot on the area, but get the idea that you will have to pay thousands of $ at a minimum.

Then you will have to pay for some almond trees that are already somewhat grown. I hope you are not planning to plant them with a seed because you can wait many years until you see some production and if they are seeds of a hybrid they will not produce much.

You can grow them without irragation, but if you want to produce to the maximum you will have to install an irrigation system, which implies a cost to install the system and to pay for the water.

Doing all this, with which you will already have to make a good initial investment, you will not see a decent production until 3 years later.

And all of this is only if you don't get a disease that kills them, such as Xylella fastidiosa, and all your investment goes to shit. This can typically happen with vines, almond or olive trees.

And then there is working the field, which will cost you money and time, unless you want to hire out all the work, which will cost you more money.

If more and more people are leaving the countryside, it is for a reason. I don't see that in the future the prices of farm products are supposedly going to rise extraordinarily and exponentially. Surely they will rise, yes, as they are already doing, but if they rise too much, people will not be able to pay them and therefore they will not be able to continue rising.

In this regard, I have left one thing unsaid before: thefts. Pray that they do not steal all your production, or if you want to take measures to prevent them from stealing it, it will cost you more money.

Or maybe you prefer to spend the harvest season with a rifle in your field.

Tho, Agriculture products did see a price increase in all categories, I don't know about the final profit of the farmers take a huge leap or not. Cause from what I've read from earlier reports, things like fertilizer's price increase very much as well. Mainly because Russia take a huge share of fertilizer export and was barred from world trade. Agriculture products heavily rely on transport and storage fees too and you saw how fuel prices have increased. I suspect the profit margin for the farmers isn't changed as much and they aren't taking a huge profit from the increased price of Agriculture products. Price mark up all because of things I said above and inflation as well.

What do you mean by agriculture HODL? Producing fruits and vegetables and storing them until their prices increase 10 times? ;D
What about storage costs? You have to put the fruits and vegetables in refrigerators in order to preserve them. This comes at a cost.
Agriculture is the hardest to do business and the profits margins are usually low. Fertilizer prices went thru the roof, everything is getting more expensive. The farmers are selling expensive food because their costs are up, not because they are making bigger profits.
A global recession might be coming and it will push the food prices down, but this will happen after the "easy money" era of quantitative easing and negative interest rates comes to an end(at least for a while).

The question here is why have we all left our ancestors professional farm practice and business? everybody want to appear on suit with a white collar job, who will now go to the field and plant what we will eat, should we starve in hunger or prefer using the earnings from the office work we do to buy expensive farm produce to survive with, I think there's need for a reorientation and a reorganization that will set out mindset, open our eye and expose us deeper to understand that we our the major cause to the economy problem with food.

Those that have the power to plant and sow aren't, while those that did so inflated the price while some hodl the commodity produce for their income, it has now become the survival of the fittest, everyone tries to buy, hodl, inflate and sell high and not until we realized the need to boost the agricultural productivity, things we always be as norms, let's return to farm and cultivate and safe the world from hunger and inflation consequence.

Only few food items can be kept for long time without any preservatives so there isn't going to be any food HODL trend as far as I know unless some conspiracy movies describes the corporates take over the complete agriculture and there is no more individual farmers but it is also too unrealistic to imagine.

For Oil like goods there is some kind of strategy used by the middle men all the time to hike the price and get most profits as much as they can which applies to tomato, wheat, any veggies, etc...

It wasn't about you not being able to do it but how fruitless (pun!) is this for a guy doing this alone with no investment in machinery!
The plum price for example is around 80 euro cents in store, that's including vat and direct wholesale is earning you 30 eurocents, obviously for a kilo, now erasing any other investment cost you will have to pick up 20 kilos for a post in the cm campaign and about 50kg for an hour of work at flipping burgers at mc donalds.
Quite down from throwing a few seeds and earning 100k while watching Netflix, right?

That's how bad the revenue (not profit!) is, the moment you quit the hobby and make it your daily work it's just survival, and you will never be able to make a profit unless you go big, that means land, that means thousands of trees, that means machinery that can clean a tree in 3-4 minutes with just one guy operating.


And how much is a kilo of something that grows on its own in a region compared to the same price for pineapple you see ins stores in northern Europe for example?
You have to pick one when you're doing the possible revenue sheet  ;)


Excellent summary, and still year after year after year I keep hearing of people who want to launch into this business because it's easy as hell, and revenue is through the roof. The good part about this is that once my family will quit and I sure don't plan on taking over it maybe I will find someone who will pay a lot of coins for it.

Aren't there various repellents for all those little bloodsuckers? I know that before people used them less because of fear because they were poisonous (and now they still are), but as far as I have the opportunity to see, there are also those repellants that should be friendly to humans and the environment. I've also seen people use clothes that are designed to protect against insects while also being breathable.


You have to think about the consequences of such actions, because all this affects the spine and possible inguinal hernias. I don't know how old you are, but in my country there is a saying that roughly says "old age will ask you where your youth was", or in other words every activity has its consequences, it's just a matter of time.

50 pounds is almost nothing, try lifting a 50 kg bag of cement ;)

I'm sure you are talking about the mechanised farming or commercial farming. Farming for commercial purpose usually turn out good at the end because you also feed from it and no matter how bad it could be, your capital will be regained especially if it is not lives stock. If you are on pure farming, that is planting and harvesting in commercial quantity, you are likely to have ROI because you have variety of crops and all won't turn out bad.



This is true for African countries that inflation is eating up the value of her currency. Next year more people in Africa will look the direction of agriculture even as little as it is in a small piece of land to plant some products and expect to get food that will sustain their family at least because the hard times of this year is so difficult to bear. However the government need to support the people in areas of avoiding flood disaster so that crops won't be washed away and amount to wasted effort. The flood of this year is so alarming especially in regions around the rivers, the riverine areas.

I have a few nut producing trees. Harvested and sprouted nuts to produce more trees.

One issue I have run into is fragments of nut in seeds rotting and killing plants. One solution I have found is adding hydrogen peroxide to water as a disinfectant.

Before I began learning about gardening. I thought the same thing everyone does. Its back breaking hard work. You need a phd in plants to grow anything.

Think about the least intelligent and educated person you know. Then imagine that people such as these grew enough food to not go extinct over thousands of years of human history.

Farming is good exercise. Coming into physical contact with grass, mud and dirt provides people with beneficial bacteria and boosts their immune system. Plants and trees absorb toxins. Cleaning both water and air. There are upsides to merely attempting agriculture.




Well, in my case I could have a few advantages.

I'm in a tropical region with year round growing conditions. The area I'm in receives more than 300 inches of rain per year. Free water if it can be harvested, stored and distributed. There is also volcanic rock and ash providing potassium and other nutrients naturally in the soil. Being a tropical region, there is also no shortage of sunlight. In my case it could make sense to pursue agriculture seriously at some point. For others they would have to research and see if it was viable for their region and conditions.

I understand commercial markets are naturally competitive areas. Due to most food items being imported from overseas regions with significantly lower labor costs. But with rising cost of oil hurting food imports, those low labor cost advantages could soon be negated.

There may also be niche markets and areas of agriculture that are underdeveloped which could be targeted.

Financial experts claim rent and food are the two largest monthly expenditures for the majority of people. How much money could the average person save if they grew enough food to not have to buy any for 1 month? 6 months?

You already opened a similar thread in the past and we discussed this. It seems that you are determined and you feel like doing it, so cheer up.

In that thread, as far as I remember, I already told you that if you intend to be self-sufficient, either you will have to reduce the variety of foods you eat, or if you intend to eat with variety, even if it is somewhat less than now, you will have to have so much land that you will not be able to work it on your own, far from it.

If you eat bread every day, or pasta etc. and intend to continue to do so, prepare a good amount of land to plant wheat. But then, harvest it, grind it, and start making homemade bread every day. To eat protein, if you don't want to have a lot of work, you're going to have to keep chickens alone. Well, if you want to keep pigs, sheep, cows, etc., it will be so much work that I doubt you will have much time to grow vegetables.

Anyway, if you decide to farm, I hope you will inform us, but self-sufficiency is much more difficult than one might think. You will most likely be able to survive but at the cost of little nutritional variety.

Urban farming is fine for entertainment but there's no way you're going to produce a significant amount of food to feed yourself.

I like to buy organic, sustainably grown produce but with almost 8 billion people living on earth, the only way to feed them all is with intensive monoculture farming on huge tracts of land with the use of herbicides, insecticides and pesticides. More sustainable crops have been making inroads as there is more demand from people who don't mind paying more for better quality produce.

I don't completely agree with the analogy. And also, HODL might be the wrong term here. When you speak of agriculture HODL, hoarding comes to mind. And that's not good. It will drive the price crazy. There was a time when the price of garlic in my country rose to a record high because of hoarding. It resulted into an artificial shortage.

Agricultural products are mostly perishable so I don't think it is worth HODLing. Instead of HODLing, perhaps we should find more ways to increase production. So when we speak of agricultural investments, HODLing might be the wrong strategy. It should be more production-focused.

That's because the war affected the oil supply and like @hydrogen said, it affects the shipping of the products making the price rise evenly but other than oil, there's also products which are affected like the wheat, chips or the one that is found and use in computers and other electronic devices and many more. Growing your own food won't reduce the food prices but you better say that it reduces your expenses because you won't buy them this time.

The only problem is the land. It will be hard to plant a crop in the modern areas because they are mostly occupied but you can invest a land for agriculture purpose on those rural areas if you are truly serious about this.

Reading this first, I thought OP was asking about hoarding agricultural products.


Growing crops is not as simple as that like what we get used to on farm simulator games. There are a lot of things to consider before planting food crops and sell it to make profit. If you don't have the proper knowledge about agriculture then you will need to hire someone that will assist you and that will definitely cost you money. Add to that are seedlings and pesticides used to maintain those crops until they are fully grown. You will also need to pay some farmers or machines when you planted them or ready to be harvested. You should also consider the risk of being hit by some weather climate that is not good for your crops.

It’s far better if farmer do it themselves and thus let the circle of farmer to customer keep going on. It’s known fact that food which is primarily “Basic Needs” of humans will be there forever and main role is of farmer who then ultimately survives on it.

It would be bad idea to halt this process and put farmers into jeopardy as to what to do and what not for their own survival henceforth?

If weather is bad, veggies are little bit costly then but it because at least we have fixed income but farmer does not! He has to rely on the nature, extra costs of technology used for modern farming and he has lot of investment to make before he can even see his wages.

Support them!

So can we all agree that Agriculture isn't as that lucrative business as someone thinks it was for a normal person to invest in? Much less talk about HODL it for the long term to drive up the price without things like storage cost and preservation since food is perishable.

Heck, since talking about farmer backgrounds, I might be honest as well. My grandma has a few hectares of land in the countryside and she leases it to some guy cause her profit margin doesn't worth the time. It was the same everywhere, Agriculture become more centralized and fall into the hand of a few with huge funds for fertilizer, high-grade farming machines to increase their ROI instead of human labor. All to make it worth their time from the low-profit margin farming. Remember Bill Gates also hoarding US farming land?

the agricultural sector does look promising big profits. even though this sector has a large enough risk if it is not carried out by reliable farmers ( beginners).
Even some people may not understand the problem of what kind of soil is suitable for planting. because some plants are adapted to different soils and climates. for example, a coconut tree that can grow well in lowlands with a temperate or tropical temperature climate and will bear fruit heavily. but after a long time I was in Indonesia which is famous for the tropics. it turns out that coconut trees can grow in various places. but it turns out that even though coconut trees can grow well in the highlands (still in the tropics). but coconut trees tend not to bear fruit if they grow at high altitudes. I'm not saying this based on what I read. but I found these facts in the field. but it turns out that the highlands are more suitable for growing vegetables such as tomatoes, carrots, chilies, and various other vegetables. and tubers such as cassava are even more suitable in the highlands. because tubers produced from the highlands tend to be larger than those grown in the lowlands.
so the agricultural sector really has its own uniqueness and looks easy to learn when in fact it really requires a long learning and practice to be proficient in farming.

even we need to know about the level of acidity in the soil to be planted. because it plays an important role in the growth and development of our plants later. so there are many factors that must be studied if you want to enter the agricultural sector directly. Geographical location, soil type, climate etc. need to be a concern in the agricultural sector.

and the next problem in farming is fertilizer prices are getting higher and even in some countries the increase in fertilizer prices is not accompanied by an increase in the price of food harvested. For example, the price of rice has not experienced a high increase. whereas fertilizer prices have increased by more than 50% and even reached 100% for certain types of special fertilizers. This causes farmers to not get maximum profit.

even if there is a disaster or crop failure, the losses felt by farmers are really very difficult for their lives.

but if we become reliable farmers who always innovate in farming then we will still be able to get maximum profit. if we certainly want to try a little more to innovate and create our own. such as not buying fertilizer for the crops they grow. but there are smart farmers who make their own organic fertilizer by utilizing the materials that are around them. so the agricultural sector is very profitable if we really understand this sector. but it can bring harm if we jump in without first learning with mature learning.

There will be no food shortage if people will take advantage of the farmland they have.
But a lot are abandoning their land in replacement of better jobs.
Because many are still considering farm work as hard work, which is actually true.
You are stretching and sweating all day long if you will dedicate yourself into this endeavor.
But if the government will give attractive incentives to their agriculture, I believe some will be encouraged to continue their farming.
Hard to hodl agri products for long time as most have certain shelf life and of course, the storage aspect needs to be considered.