Agriculture HODL

[Hydrogen]

If food shortages and price inflation hit. Agricultural HODL could become a viable business strategy.

Similar to being an early investor in bitcoin. Getting in early on agriculture HODL could be a good investment.

Shopping in a supermarket we can see that almond nuts can sell for $10 a pound. When I see this, I wonder to myself how much time and energy would it take to grow 10,000 pounds of almonds to profit a cool $100,000. Does rain, sunshine and the tree do all of the work? If food shortages hit the price of almonds and other food assets could rise dramatically. Instead of $10 a pound. We might see $15 or $20. Profit margins could swell significantly due to circumstantial conditions. As we have seen with other markets posting record profits correlated with price inflation.

Depending on which zone we're located in and the climate. It may also become possible to produce niche luxury crops.

Rising cost of oil could greatly restrict foreign exports. Which could produce a high and growing demand for locally produced alternatives. Which would stack on top of existing favorable market conditions.

It is possible that there is someone in the world who will begin farming this year. Grow and sell a harvest. To produce more next year. Who will possibly become a millionaire through the process. Rising cost of oil and difficulty associated with shipping food products from overseas could all contribute to making it possible.

Anyways what do people think about this. Share your wisdom please.

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[STT]

I agree the idea is likely to see growth but how to capture it exactly is harder to do.  My idea is the tools of the trade and fertilizer especially could provide parallel to growth in demand and premiums for whole agriculture sector.    Commodities overall is a hard sector to master so Im averse to trying to hold onto any specific idea for a bullish market even wheat and sunflower oil which are subject to setbacks due to the war in east europe.

[Nhazwrath]

There isn't going to be a food shortage. 

Media talking BS point.  Stop listening to people that lie to you all the time.

we grow more food with less land then we ever have.   slightly less fertilizer = more land use.   its simple math. 

[stompix]

Instead of $10 a pound. We might see $15 or $20. Profit margins could swell significantly due to circumstantial conditions.

Demand and offer!
Just as how instead of $300 per barrel of oil how some idiots predicted we went down to 80$ and they need to cut production to even keep that level once something becomes more expensive it also becomes less sought after, and almonds, pistachios, and every single thing in this exotic category are the first on the list that will be dropped by the average consumer once it doubles in prices, reducing the demand and leaving you with increased costs to revenue ratio and a ton of competition.

Shopping in a supermarket we can see that almond nuts can sell for $10 a pound. When I see this, I wonder to myself how much time and energy would it take to grow 10,000 pounds of almonds to profit a cool $100,000. Does rain, sunshine and the tree do all of the work?

2500Kg for a ha, so you need two hectares (5 acres if I'm not mistaken), but that's our full nuts so I guess three times the area at least.
Of course, you need irrigation, you need pesticides, and you also need to HODL your breath for 5 years till they make any serious fruit!
Still keen on doing it? Not to mention that's the packed resell price, not what you're getting for raw product, add another 10% loss just on the nuts that will be thrown away at sorting.

Also, there is one other huge barrier, you either need costly machinery for harvesting (there are special machines exactly for the above-mentioned almonds) or you have to rely on the quite unreliable available workforce which might lead to complete miss your targets or losing the major part of your product and get you in red from the start.

[$anounimus$]

If food shortages and price inflation hit. Agricultural HODL could become a viable business strategy.

It is possible that there is someone in the world who will begin farming this year. Grow and sell a harvest. To produce more next year. Who will possibly become a millionaire through the process. Rising cost of oil and difficulty associated with shipping food products from overseas could all contribute to making it possible.

Anyways what do people think about this. Share your wisdom please.

I think it's still in the early stages of getting in there as preparation and investing in future commodities that will be needed by billions of people and will continue to grow in demand as the world changes more rapidly due to innovation, technology, and climate change.

The demand for also food will only increase over time as an increasing global population puts more pressure on our natural resources causing food shortages.

Weather patterns that are increasingly unpredictable in the future are not only a viable business strategy, but wise readiness to fulfill basic needs for ourselves and our families is what needs to be prioritized.

It could be that the food will be more expensive than the price of Gold or BTC itself.

[so98nn]

Instead of $10 a pound. We might see $15 or $20. Profit margins could swell significantly due to circumstantial conditions.

Demand and offer!
Just as how instead of $300 per barrel of oil how some idiots predicted we went down to 80$ and they need to cut production to even keep that level once something becomes more expensive it also becomes less sought after, and almonds, pistachios, and every single thing in this exotic category are the first on the list that will be dropped by the average consumer once it doubles in prices, reducing the demand and leaving you with increased costs to revenue ratio and a ton of competition.

Shopping in a supermarket we can see that almond nuts can sell for $10 a pound. When I see this, I wonder to myself how much time and energy would it take to grow 10,000 pounds of almonds to profit a cool $100,000. Does rain, sunshine and the tree do all of the work?

2500Kg for a ha, so you need two hectares (5 acres if I'm not mistaken), but that's our full nuts so I guess three times the area at least.
Of course, you need irrigation, you need pesticides, and you also need to HODL your breath for 5 years till they make any serious fruit!
Still keen on doing it? Not to mention that's the packed resell price, not what you're getting for raw product, add another 10% loss just on the nuts that will be thrown away at sorting.

Also, there is one other huge barrier, you either need costly machinery for harvesting (there are special machines exactly for the above-mentioned almonds) or you have to rely on the quite unreliable available workforce which might lead to complete miss your targets or losing the major part of your product and get you in red from the start.

Great, so farmer even gets to enjoy his 5 years tenure to do additional businesses. May be by dedicating a hectare or something for quick grower veggies and sell them in the market. The life of farmer cycles around many things but not limited one crop I believe. They can always have seasonal crops growing around the calendar and get money from it. There are anyways dozens of varieties and kinds of veggies which can grow quickly.

If they just wanna focus on the nuts then they can dedicate half land for that matter.

The prices are obviously decided after all the investments. Not everyone needs to really "buy" heavy machineries rather they can rent it on per day charges basis or whatever is trend in westerns.

However, with more poly houses and hydroponics the supplies would keep growing irrespective of seasons and outsides calamities.

Considering the upcoming inflation; I believe we already looking at the risen prices for food. It's not about farm to customer selling issues, it's freakish global economic crisis started at one corner of the world and now everyone gets to "enjoy" it.

[Lucius]

~snip~

If we take into account the costs and risks of any production that requires time, knowledge and money, I wonder if it wouldn't be much easier to invest in 1 Bitcoin and profit maybe even more in the next 5 years? Of course, this is also a risk, but hazelnuts, walnuts, almonds and similar nuts are not something that a person cannot survive without, and as you say, these products will be the first on the list that people will give up in order to save for some other much more important foods.

I remember that in my country 5+ years ago chokeberry was a big hit and everyone planted it and hoped for a big profit, and today it is a profitable investment for a few, while others simply failed because the market became saturated with large quantities, along with the price which is quite high. I think the key is to find something that is interesting and that can be sold outside the local market, and for years I have known a man who produces exotic fruits and vegetables, and they say that he is doing great considering that everything he produces is sold mainly on the EU market.

[stompix]

I remember that in my country 5+ years ago chokeberry was a big hit and everyone planted it and hoped for a big profit, and today it is a profitable investment for a few, while others simply failed because the market became saturated with large quantities, along with the price which is quite high. I think the key is to find something that is interesting and that can be sold outside the local market, and for years I have known a man who produces exotic fruits and vegetables, and they say that he is doing great considering that everything he produces is sold mainly on the EU market.

Oh yeah, we had that trend here too, but haven't seen a new one in years. maybe the miracles crop search is finally over!
Ostrich farmers, chinchilla farmers, Paulownia, all kinds of berries, mushrooms, and so on and on.
Of course, the final result was fairly obvious, the prices for those were high because only a couple of producers existed in the first place but when you go on and produce 100 times more demand won't come out of anywhere and the price will eventually fall fo most under the cost. Just like the saying about the gold rush, the ones making more money were the ones selling the pickaxes.

Great, so farmer even gets to enjoy his 5 years tenure to do additional businesses.

Oh no, just no!
It's not planting a few trees and for 5 years you take a beak, you need to take care of them, you need to water them, you need to check for disease or insects or rodents that might chew the bark in winter and the new branches in spring, you need to be careful how they grow and cut branches to keep the right size and the alignment so if you think you're just going to plant them and that's it you're having the same poetic view about farming and that's as far from reality as Disney movies. Not to mention you're going to look at a failure rate, you need to take those out replant, and many more.
If it were that simple everyone would be doing it, and as you can see, not many are!

Not everyone needs to really "buy" heavy machineries rather they can rent it on per day charges basis or whatever is trend in westerns.

You make it sound so easy, but who will lend you a cheap machine that has been bought with a few tens of thousands just like that? We're not talking of a chainsaw that you can take a break from and lend to your neighbors for a few days, these are specialized machines that are being used at the precise harvest time, so the one that bought it will be using it for his harvest and once he is done slight chances your fruits are not already rotting in the fields, and the ones buying machines just to lend them, guess how much they are going to charge extra?

[so98nn]

You make it sound so easy, but who will lend you a cheap machine that has been bought with a few tens of thousands just like that? We're not talking of a chainsaw that you can take a break from and lend to your neighbors for a few days, these are specialized machines that are being used at the precise harvest time, so the one that bought it will be using it for his harvest and once he is done slight chances your fruits are not already rotting in the fields, and the ones buying machines just to lend them, guess how much they are going to charge extra?

It sounds easy because we are already doing that in my country, and I think there are many services like that everywhere throughout globe.

Like this:

Code:

https://www.flaman.com/rentals/ag-equipment/

Catalogue:

Code:

https://www.flaman.com/rentals/pdfs/Rental_Catalogue_web.pdf

Though requirements could be A-Z, most of the companies will provide almost all sort of machineries (& yes specialized too).

It's kind of new business stream. Fortunately it saves time and money for the farmer who can not afford to buy the few tens of thousand in one go! Rather rent it, use it and send it back. No maintenance too!

For example, there is also Grain Harvester which is around $64,500 (old model cost) for direct sell could be rented out at the rate of $15,000 per month. So lets say someone finishes their harvesting in 15 days then they could get away with it at 7.5k bucks.

For the next cycle anyways there will be no use for the harvester machine until next harvest comes up. So its better for that farmer to rent it rather invest that much amount at once or pay same money in the EMI's.

Like this one [ https://www.rentalyard (dot) com/listings/farm-equipment/for-rent/207714809/2014-killbros-1311 ]

So may be it's easy, and we don't really have to depend on the neighbor's machine.

[uneng]

It is not so easy and worthful like it sounds. It would be great if you could simply grow your crops, harvest everything and take it to the supermarket for profit.

However, supermarkets already have their suppliers who need to be regulated by the government in order to be able to sell the crops, what involves extra costs for the farmer and also for the supermarket due to taxes. Moreover, even if you manage to make the sale the supermarket pays much less for your crops than the final product's price.

Just as example, I collected eatable seeds from a local species of pine once and took it to the supermarket. For each kilogram I was paid 0,60$, while the supermarket sold each kilogram for 1,60$ in the end.

It doesn't feel rewarding. It feels exploitative and frustrating, because you had to do the most part of the job, which took time and effort, while the supermarket simply displays the products there and receive almost 200% of your profit.

[Gyfts]

Farmers have the liberty to hold onto produce, though logistically this isn't as easy because of spoilage. Secondly, prices are increasing because the cost to manufacturers are increasing, their profits are being eaten up by operating cost. I don't think the agriculture industry is the industry to generate a lot of wealth, the entire industry is propped up by subsidies.

On a side note, country's have been stockpiling their food and reducing their exports. They anticipate famine because of higher energy costs, so naturally, that drives global food prices up with less exports. If a country was so inclined, they could take advantage of a food shortage for profits.

[DrBeer]

Worked in grocery retail for many years. I came to an interesting conclusion. The problem of farmers oriented to the local market (and other producers of products also suffer from this) is that the market and relations between the producer and the end consumer are large retail chains. If you want to enter the network, "stand on the shelf" - pay. The price must be as the network player ORDERS. And so in everything. As a result, the manufacturer works on the verge of profitability, and the retailer, without making any special efforts, receives most of the income.

In our country (Ukraine), for about 5 years, the practice of "food fairs" has been working. And even today, when Ukraine is under the threat of a terrorist attack from Russia, and the southern and eastern regions are largely destroyed by Russian terrorists, it turned out that the prices at such fairs are quite competitive. And noticeably lower prices in retail chains! This applies to vegetables, fruits, meat and products from them, which are made by small farms or even private producers.

[Die_empty]

If we take into account the costs and risks of any production that requires time, knowledge and money, I wonder if it wouldn't be much easier to invest in 1 Bitcoin and profit maybe even more in the next 5 years?

It is very easy to punch the calculator and estimate how much gain one can make investing in agriculture. But from experience farming is one of the riskiest businesses in the world, especially in my location. Just recently some part of my country is going through a flood disaster that has destroyed many lives and properties. Many mega-farms have lost millions because their farms have been destroyed by floods.

A few years ago I invested heavily in a cassava and corn farm. I put in my time and money to ensure that the farm succeeded. Close to the time of harvest, there was a community crisis that led to violent conflict and everybody had to run away from the community. I abandoned my farm because it would be risky to farm in a place where people are been murdered. It took about two years to resolve the conflict and when I came back my farm has been overtaken by weeds. The little plant that survived has been harvested by farm thieves.

I would rather invest in Bitcoin because it saves me a lot of time and strength. Farming needs quality time and consumes a lot of energy, hence it is better to put my money in Bitcoin and wait patiently.  

[Hydrogen]

Demand and offer!
Just as how instead of $300 per barrel of oil how some idiots predicted we went down to 80$ and they need to cut production to even keep that level once something becomes more expensive it also becomes less sought after, and almonds, pistachios, and every single thing in this exotic category are the first on the list that will be dropped by the average consumer once it doubles in prices, reducing the demand and leaving you with increased costs to revenue ratio and a ton of competition.

Its not the same. 

We know demand for locally produced food items is rising sharply due to inflating oil, shipping and transportation fees hammering food imports.

Food prices in stores have appreciated in value significantly. Rising demand won't be stabilized until store prices decline to normal values. That is a lot of volume to fill.

Competition is also declining. Most agriculture relies heavily on fertilizer derived from natural gas. Given current natural gas trends, those who know how to produce organic alternatives could have a significant advantage.

2500Kg for a ha, so you need two hectares (5 acres if I'm not mistaken), but that's our full nuts so I guess three times the area at least.
Of course, you need irrigation, you need pesticides, and you also need to HODL your breath for 5 years till they make any serious fruit!
Still keen on doing it? Not to mention that's the packed resell price, not what you're getting for raw product, add another 10% loss just on the nuts that will be thrown away at sorting.

Also, there is one other huge barrier, you either need costly machinery for harvesting

I think almonds were a bad example.

I saw lychee fruit selling on amazon for $17 a pound. There are years where I might throw away 50+ pounds of lychee as there is too much to pick and eat. The lychee tree doesn't receive much maintenance or fertilizer. Although now I am trying to take better care of it and grow more of them. Pineapples are another very low maintenance crop here in the tropics.

This isn't to suggest that selling nuts or fruit on amazon is the most profitable or best enterprise. But I think there are some niche areas where people with excess land might grow things with low maintenance and upkeep. Which they can sell to produce something similar to passive income.

As for targeted agricultural markets, I have been thinking about cacao beans. There was a case years ago where the supply of cacao was bought up and centralized if I remember correctly. That might be worth an attempt at agricultural development if its a monopolized market where prices could be artificially inflated.

Jackfruit could be a good option as I think it can produce fruit in as little as 18 months. Papayas are said to fruit in as little as 7 months. I had a papaya growing that fruited very quickly before being utterly destroyed by white flies.

Anyways hope everyone is doing well and having success with whatever they're doing. As long as supermarket prices remain high, I would guess there is plenty of space for profit for anyone interested in entering agriculture.

[stompix]

For example, there is also Grain Harvester which is around $64,500 (old model cost) for direct sell could be rented out at the rate of $15,000 per month. So lets say someone finishes their harvesting in 15 days then they could get away with it at 7.5k bucks.
For the next cycle anyways there will be no use for the harvester machine until next harvest comes up. So its better for that farmer to rent it rather invest that much amount at once or pay same money in the EMI's.

Like this one [ https://www.rentalyard.com/listings/farm-equipment/for-rent/207714809/2014-killbros-1311 ]

So may be it's easy, and we don't really have to depend on the neighbor's machine.

A perfect example of what I was talking about, Disney-style planning and reality.

In your plan you've already identified the supplier, you know the price at which you will get it, you drive to the dealer, you rent your harvester and you're good to go!

In reality, you've just spent $7,500 on a grain cart!!!! Which as the name implies does not harvest a thing!
So, don't you think that the moment you can't differentiate between a gain cart and a harvester, is the moment you should look for another hobby and realize that in the future business planning agriculture and farming are off the list?  

If things would be that simple everyone would be into it, but they aren't, I spent my childhood at a farm, and I've spent more than a decade working again there after my college years for everything, from accounting to actually driving that stuff around, I wouldn't want to go back even if I would have to choose between cleaning sewers with a pressure washer and farming! And you know why? Cause cleaning a damn farm is sometimes worse than a sewer!!!
There is Disney where every animal tends for itself and only comes to you to give you milk while trees and crops grow by themselves and there is a reality where one infected animal and you have to put them all down and one hailstorm and the whole orchard is ruined not just for this season but maybe even the next also!

I think almonds were a bad example.

Everything will be a bad example if you think of making money without work!
If things were that simple everyone would, how do you even say it, not doing a thing and earning money?
But as you can see, it's more and more quitting rather than approaching this field, because it's a risky pain in the ass low margin crap!

That aside, it's one thing growing a few fruits in your 100square yards garden and having this and that and just doing hobby work on them, that works, and it's enjoyable, but a totally different thing to take care of 100 trees. If we weren't a continent apart I would have invited you to come and pick some plum fruits next year, let's see how many 5kg boxes would you be able to do till you give up and you realize you're harvesting fruit at a lower value than flipping hamburgers at McDonald's!

[Fara Chan]

Agriculture is a very important resource in human life, this commodity is very promising if one can take advantage of fertile land for farming, unfortunately the younger generation now considers agriculture not a promising job, even though there are many successful people out there pursuing agriculture.
Even if inflation starts to occur, we can prepare household needs with resources from agriculture, especially if we are able to plant basic needs on a large scale.

[spectre71]

As a farmer this thread is hilarious. Farming is the probably some of the hardest work you will ever do. There are no days off, summer vacations, family days... None. Your sick? so what you must work.

Remember your not making a dime until that crop sells. Many confuse gentleman farming for local markets with true ag, they ain't the same.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

If we take into account the costs and risks of any production that requires time, knowledge and money, I wonder if it wouldn't be much easier to invest in 1 Bitcoin and profit maybe even more in the next 5 years?

Almond trees can take up to 5–12 years to produce almonds, but Bitcoin is halved every 4 years. So, while someone who invested in one Bitcoin may have taken their profit and moved on, the farmer who invested in almonds may still be preparing to harvest the almonds.

 

hazelnuts, walnuts, almonds and similar nuts are not something that a person cannot survive without

If the agricultural hodl should come into play, I think it should be on more important food. In my country, maize takes only 60-70 days before it's due for harvest and maize is used to make other processed foods like;

cornmeal, grits, starch, flour, tortillas, snacks, and breakfast cereals, Ref.

[m2017]

The agriculture hodl is somewhat similar to the shitcoin hodl. It is possible that the agriculture you grow (if the agriculture is well chosen) will rise sharply in price due to increased demand and bring you a profit of many X-s. There was an investment here, not just money, but time, human resources, and so on. In the case of shitcoins, a similar investment, but only money. And there, and there, there is a chance to increase your costs, but there is also a chance to get losses. Moreover, in the case of agricultural crops, the risks are much higher due to the high threshold for invested resources and various force majeure factors, such as agriculture failure, natural disasters, agriculture losses during harvesting and transportation. That is, if we consider systematically, then there are similar moments. I would prefer to invest in shitcoins because it is easier and less risky. Better yet, invest in something else that is safer than shitcoins and requires less stress, as is the case with agriculture.

[spectre71]

The agriculture hodl is somewhat similar to the shitcoin hodl. It is possible that the agriculture you grow (if the agriculture is well chosen) will rise sharply in price due to increased demand and bring you a profit of many X-s. There was an investment here, not just money, but time, human resources, and so on. In the case of shitcoins, a similar investment, but only money. And there, and there, there is a chance to increase your costs, but there is also a chance to get losses. Moreover, in the case of agricultural crops, the risks are much higher due to the high threshold for invested resources and various force majeure factors, such as agriculture failure, natural disasters, agriculture losses during harvesting and transportation. That is, if we consider systematically, then there are similar moments. I would prefer to invest in shitcoins because it is easier and less risky. Better yet, invest in something else that is safer than shitcoins and requires less stress, as is the case with agriculture.

I like the way you think. Instead of investing in crops and I shifting towards ag land ETF's. Take my cryto profits and add something tangible to the pie without much risk in crop failures.