Bitcoin Forum

I was browsing Youtube videos when I stumbled this video by Bob Loukas.  The video is all about an end of the cycle and a birth of a new one.  It tackles that Bitcoin is possibly in a transition if not already transitioned to a new cycle.  This does not necessary means Bear market transitioning to Bull market but rather the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is about to end. 

https://i.imgur.com/FODLsXW.png (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ti0qHClHmPs)

cycles are based on the halving events..
we are at "mid term" not the end

i personally never base "cycles" on the short term events of a ATH because bitcoin VALUE (not price) is not based on the highs.. but the new raised lows

if you ignore the highs (because not many people actually trade at the high)
and instead look at the lows. (because everyone trades at or above))
2012's ~$6
2016's ~$450
2020's ~$4k

all show the lowest value (store of value) line of bitcoin
...
the prices above the lows are speculative/random/temporary

these speculative amounts are premiums above the 'new bottom'  value
that are speculative and temporary as the markets try to find the new raise low/bottom of each cycle

While I've seen other traders too counting the cycles from ATH to ATH or from bottom to bottom, I find it a bad way to see that, I find it a way you can easily go wrong.
On the other hand, halving to halving is just fine. One cannot miss that. So I agree with franky1 on this: we're not at the end of a cycle.

On the other hand, yes, based on historical movements it's expected the market to turn bullish in the near future. Some say the bottom is near, some say the bottom was already in. We will see. With the future.. you never know which predictions were right, if any.

This 4 year cycle is a bull and bear cycle OP. The other cycle is a halving event as correctly mentioned by Franky. So when you say it is not about bull and bear cycle, you are wrong. Based on the past events, we have derived it as a 4 years cycle but there's no guarantee that it will respond in a similar manner like the past. So that's speculation.

The only prominent cycle of bitcoin is halving and we are still have some time to reach there.

I'll stand agreed with both franky1 and NeuroticFish here. I don't believe we're in the end of the cycle, we're about somewhere in the middle. There's room for more liquidation, and in fact, I believe this is going to be a longer cycle as well, in comparison with 2012-2015 and 2015-2019. Maybe from now on, due to higher standards and more mature heads, it's going to take us longer to complete cycles.

But, due to some serious unpredictability, I'm hodling.

Doesnt matter if its a long or short one because just like you and others which had been holding and the more cheaper bitcoin would be then the more you would be able to accumulate and just like on whats happening

now, which the price is gradually plumetting as of this moment.I do make myself tend to believe about cycles and other stuffs but we know that this market is unpredictable as always.

There's no way that we could really make out some conclusion whether it would really be going into the same path and movement just like on previous years.
It cant really be able to determine or we could really be able to point out on precise manner.

I don't think it's time to conclude that the 4 year cycle is over, but maybe it's getting closer to a new one. The best possibility is that such a cycle will repeat every 4 years, but as said it is not a certainty even though it has been repeated so far.

There is no other choice, just hold and add something to cart.  :D

Definitely cannot watch the full video at one go, but with the first 5 to 10 minutes, it looks promising to be an educative video, and not one which is simply made to be sensational and attract lots of attention. A YouTuber who I can revisit for the contents.

Every speculation on what stage we are in, with the transition from bull to bear, and back to bull could potentially be correct and has it's own merit. I cannot determine if we have seen the bottom and now only have one way to go, or if there would be future drops, or if we would have a dead cat bounce and then a prolonged dip.

Using halving as a metric is one way to look at Bitcoin as a whole, and this involves trader sentiment, but is not limited to it.

Bitcoin is too illiquid for us to know where the cycle ends and where the bottom is. It's impossible to determine a temporary value of an asset when only 10% of it is being traded at any moment and about half is permanently held. It doesn't matter though because all bear market tend to overshoot the real value to the downside and all bull market overshoot to the upside. The current fair value is somewhere between 20k and 30k USD

It is difficult to determine where a cycle ends and is replaced by a new one, especially regarding bearish and bullish. I didn't think this would be the end of a bearish cycle and ready to turn into a bullish cycle, it turns out that until now we are still in a bearish cycle.

The transition from bearish to bullish requires support marked by the break of some tough resistance like $25K in recent months. I think this bearishness will last until 2023, but supply and demand will very likely make some moves.

The 4years circle is it not the halving season? when the market has experienced the bull and the bearish season within the 4 years. The 4 years circle of bitcoin always give rise to a new ATH, calculating it from the creation of bitcoin 2008 with 4years intervals of halving seasons (2008-2011, 2012-2015, 2016-2020, 2021-2024).

Hopefully, towards 2024, that's when we expect bitcoin to skyrocket to a new cycle of another ATH than her previous ATH of $68k.

bull and bear was never a 4 year repeated cycle

first market price was 2010 and went bull into 2011. then bear into 2012 then bull in 2012 then bear in 2014 then stagnant in 15,16
then bull in 17, then bear in 18 then stagnant in 19,20. then bull in 21

yet the real 4 year cycle. has shown a pattern
halving hear
2012- ~$6-12 then slow rise
2016- ~$450-900 then slow rise
2020- ~$4.5k-9k then slow rise

year after halving year
ATH (2013,2017,2021)

year3 correction of ATH to new raised low and stagnant boring movements there after

year 4 lead upto the halving pattern of year 1 of halving slow movement

You're oversimplifying this and trying to prove the wrong point.
You say it's not a 4 year cycle but still try to close it in yearly terms. I'd say it's not even a "year cycle" because it never opens and closes a period within a year (or 4).

Take your 2020 "stagnant" year and 21 bull market. The bullish breakout was in November 2020 so we can't call that year stagnant or bearish. The tops throughout the year were at maybe 12k and then in November you already had 18-19k and a new ATH in December.

I wouldn't put market cycles into any closed time periods. Every time the number of months and days of a bullish cycle is different and it's the same with bearish cycles.

Bitcoin cycles are tied to halvenings. Each halvenings are less and less influential than the previous ones. Going from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block is huge. Going from 0.39 to 0.195 is way less noitceable in terms of emission. This ATH showed less relative growth compared to the previous cycles, and I would expect the next ATH to be even closer to the current ATH. But this doesn't mean that the cycles are over, they just evolved.

Looking at yearly lowest price is cool to recognize the growth of Bitcoin in price on the market. People especially newbies should ignore min-, hour-, day- candles and try to look at a wider view with yearly candles.

After each halving, each bull run, Bitcoin will be corrected and pulled back but there are prices it has never looked back.

It will be absolutely helpful for them by investing long term and skip unpredictable speculation.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/yearly-candles/
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/never-look-back-price/

Who knows the bearish cycle will end and soon be replaced with bullish, I just saw the price movement of Bitcoin, today it decreased to 6.41%. The current market conditions have not shown any signs of changing, so just enjoy the times when you can get Bitcoins that are offering discounts.
I'm not sure the changes will occur in late November and December, early January 2023 still in the same condition. Support will definitely come when supply and demand start to increase, before entering the bullish phase prepare some Bitcoin flakes to take profit when the movement begins.

In my opinion, the 4-year cycle problem should not be used as a guideline, because it is possible that bitcoin with a time of 2 or 3 days can bull run and it may also experience a deep decline. so I think the cycle case is most likely not predictable.

Yeah, but all means the cycle is not about to end, we are still in the middle of it.

We just have to look at least in the last 2 cycles, to say that still holds true, right after the halving, we will experience slow growth but the next year there will be huge advantage in price culminating to a new all time high, 2017 and 2021.

The next halving will occur in 2024, and so the most likely new all time high again will be at the end of 2025.

Bob Loukas creates videos for education and learning purposes, he doesn't create a video just to hype anything but rather share his experience and knowledge about the market.  Anyway, this four-year cycle stated by Bob Loukas marks four-year intervals from cycle low to cycle low. [1]  This means halving and all time high is somewhere in between of this cycle.


True, each one of us has our own understanding of the Bitcoin cycle, basically, no one is wrong in this case cycle.  It is that Bob Loukas's 4-year cycle and price analysis and prediction are more accurate than others.
and, I admire this guy for being humble.

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[1] https://cointelegraph.com/top-people-in-crypto-and-blockchain-2022/bob-loukas

It shouldnt really be made as a guideline because everything could really happen along the way without having basing these on past patterns which people been looking on.Im not saying that i cant
happen but 4 year cycle is something that we have created basing up on what we had seen in the past.There's no guarantee that it could really be happening in the future.
Now the price is plummeting and we dont know on where it would be going which some people been saying it would go as long as 10k but we dont actually know
on where it do ends up and consider as the bottom of this current trend.Its really hard to make out presumptions and conclusions.

I think maybe the cycle of once every 4 years will disappear and maybe a new cycle will also be born. because if you look at the condition of the world economy which is down. Certainly a 4 year cycle will be difficult to predict due to difficult economic conditions. but of course the bull run market will still exist. but since the price of bitcoin experienced a bull run in 2021 and until now it certainly hasn't been 4 years. so in my opinion the decline in the price of bitcoin now is a natural thing, and has often happened, in the past.

If we ever listen to the first minutes of the video Bob Loukas stated:

"it's always the darkest near the end of the cycle
  the end of the cycle signals the death of a period
     and the birth of a period and right now I believe
      that we are transitioning from the end of one cycle
           and the beginning of the next cycle"

Take note the video was created when Bitcoin is rallying toward $21k when some traders thinks that it is the start of the Bull Market, Bob Loukas have an insight that the price of BTC might plummet really hard, and days later, today we saw Bitcoin had its bottom at $15k+.  Bob Loukas never failed to surprise me with how his prediction is often spot on.   And btw, I believe a cycle transition never ends at its peak and never started at its peak.  It always starts at its bottom moving towards its peak and from there on going back to bottom until a new cycle is born and repeats the movement.  There are lots of cycles happening in the Bitcoin market but the most notable is the 4-year cycle where the new bottom and new ATH are recorded.

It is not a secret that when the price went up, it was because there was a hope for a good thing, Binance and FTX mending their issues and making sure that they grow together was a possibility and that is why it went up. Then it turned out that the trouble continued and they didn't mend anything and Binance basically attacked FTX by selling their tokens and that was a problem.

All in all I have to say that it is going to be something much bigger and better when it comes down to something like this in the future and we just wait a bit longer. If you rush into buying then I will not say it is a wrong move but you must need a back up plan to DCA, so he was right to just wait and see if there would be a drop.

not as a guideline but as a feedback on the value of bitcoin itself, because basically bitcoin is now difficult to guess, when it will bullrun or bear,
but it is undeniable that we are all used to the 4 year cycle so let's see what happens in 2024 later if it is true that the 4 year cycle means that this cycle is true can be said as a guide
you could say it's just a coincidence I think btc has increased at that time, (shallow thinking) but history will not repeat itself all out of control
we will wait for 2024 to see if there will be a new history with the value of btc

The cycles aren't coincidence, they match halving years. If we look bitcoin's history we will see that always after a new halving, bitcoin's price skyrocketed considerably. From all the events in crypto market and despite its volatile, unpredictable nature, halving's impact on bitcoin is one, if not the only immutable rule so far. Thankfully it works as a powerful fuel for bitcoin's price and as boost to increase investors' morale and confidence in bitcoin on long term. Doesn't matter how bad the scenario looks on the present moment, when we think about cycles (that are determined by halvings) we calm down and renew our expectations for the future.