Bitcoin Forum

2023 Elliott Wave

• https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com (https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com)

Speculatively forecasting the price of Bitcoin via subjectively using the Elliott Wave principle.

Analysis is conjecture with sporadic fortnightly to monthly updates.

Previous thread: 2022 Elliott Wave (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5379463.0)
 

BTC/USD

https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/20230112-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/20230112-bncblx.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/20230112-btcusd-1.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/20230112-btcusd-1.png)

ETH/USD

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/20230112-ethusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/20230112-ethusd.png)

DJIA 30

https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/20221029-m-djia.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/20221029-m-djia.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/20221029-w-djia.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/20221029-w-djia.png)

Price goes opposite to what you say. Last post in 2022 says price to go $13k and guess what? we are at $18k.
I think you should already cut the crap and shutdown these threads and do something better in your life.

Like signature campaigns!...   ;) ;) ;)

A final fifth wave lower was anticipated to be somewhere around $15,000 to $16,000 during the 08-NOV-2022 election, see here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5379463.msg61044435#msg61044435

The actual low so far appears to be $15,470 on 21-NOV-2022.

Subsequent revisions proved to be erroneous when the market eliminated the alternate scenarios.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/g/GHMBCvQr.png

Maybe we gonna see correction first after bump from 20K, 19K and the price stable we can go on to 25K or test resistance first at 23K and question is my elliot wave correct?

Current guesswork...

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/20230114-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/20230114-btcusd.png)

then we are still gonna see the correction first right? before continue run

When the current trend completes, which started from the 30-DEC-2022 low, would then expect around a sub -10% pullback, before the rally resumes.

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/20220120-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/20220120-btcusd.png)

the bull run continues it looks like we have a strong buyer, I just watch the awesome oscillator and it looks like doesn't loose its power  ;D but stochastic RSI and fibbonaci says it need to cool down first before another run, Want to buy but still scared at this time  ;D ;D

It's exhausted and I think so too that it will cool down, I wonder if it's just a bull trap in the end but we should know that in the coming days or weeks. Decrease in price will be an elevator down if it's just a bull trap. I wonder what news again this time that will make the market to react, just recently it's about the unknown Bitzlato exchange being taken down and the market reacted quickly.

Me, I was worried because we gain a huge percentage of pumps in just a short period of time.
I am still waiting for the monthly candle close for this month and I will observe the price action of Bitcoin starting February up to the end of this first quarter of the year.
Overall, now I am still not satisfied for the market is already in a bull market.

Hi, what's your opinion on B at 60,000$ being slightly higher than 5?

Detailed screenshot from your analysis:
https://i.ibb.co/Tmw7mnw/2023-elliot-btc.jpg

Shouldn't it be a little lower?

Thanks

Its an Irregular B-wave, also known as an Expanded Flat correction...

https://i.ibb.co/D1mjRdT/irregular.png

Thanks for the clarification xxxx123abcxxxx! Let's see what happens from now on.

Hi @xxxx123abcxxxx I still have some questions about the following bitcoin analysis  :P


AFAIK the third wave can never be the shortest and in your graphic seems to be the shortest one. Let me show it over your analysis courtesy of @Meigo from Forobits

https://forobits.com/uploads/default/original/3X/7/0/707ab2b89b0529b345be79a61c2ce119f203e742.png

Sorry if i'm wrong. I'm trying to fully understand your analysis.

Adding some guidelines as reference.
https://i.ibb.co/rvs4LVH/wave-3-elliot.png

Thanks!

The third PRIMARY[3] wave is NOT the shortest. Elliott Waves are measured in terms of points, not percentages. A logarithmic chart provides an illusory impression that PRIMARY[1] wave is the longest.


https://i.ibb.co/ftsSWRj/btcusd.png
 

Curious that your count for Bitcoin has us starting Wave 5 but Wave 3 for equities. Do you see a great decoupling to come or is it just there's no time frame data to be gleaned from the counts (i..e differing wave counts could play out within the same time frame)?

Each market, each asset class, each stock, is in their own Elliott Wave trajectory. There are times when markets correlate, and there are times when markets decouple.

There are variations in wave degree where markets may correlate with each other, but one market could be in say PRIMARY[3] and an other market in INTERMEDIATE(3) degree —both in bull markets, but the at the time of correction, one leads with a steeper decline and slower recovery. E.g.

—Japan NIKKEI225 index was decoupled from the rest of the developed equities world in the 1990s for decades onwards, re-aligned in 2009.
—Bitcoin greatly decoupled from the S&P500 and global equity markets starting in 2014 for a year, and started to correlate with gold.
—Gold has usually been, and thought of, as a decoupled hedge against equites, but has been correlated since 2015.

Interestingly, the current PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(5) wave in Bitcoin could be the longest wave within PRIMARY[5]. This would be a reverse symmetry of the wave lengths (in terms of percentages) that occurred in PRIMARY[1] wave; i.e. the waves within PRIMARY[1] contracted, and the waves within PRIMARY[5] are expanded...

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/02/20230201-btcusd.png

I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !

and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?

—In equity markets wave3 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.
—In commodity markets wave5 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.

To know why this happens, watch from 1:23:18 to 1:28:24: https://youtu.be/jJA58dxmzQk?t=4998

It's very interesting to see how the long-term projections also align well with halving-cycles and the increase of value for Bitcoin.
Just from previous experience this Elliot-wave pattern seems very plausible. But then again, any kind of prediction works great until it doesn't anymore.
Personally I would expect a similar outcome mid/long term - however many unforseen events can have strong short-term impacts that would disrupt this pattern for a while quite significantly.

I am not referring to the channel, I am talking about an Elliot rule that wave 5 cannot cut the extension of line 2-4

Sorry, now I have doubts, the rule is that line 2-4 should not be cut by wave 3. Although I have always thought that wave 5 could not cut the extension of line 2-4, unless wave 5 was a terminal wedge

Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?

Either of the following are possible:

https://i.ibb.co/Z6XNqLP/overshoot.jpg

but your BTC count is not any of these 3, you draw a channel, but the bottom line is not wave 2-4 PRIMARY, you are joining two points of different degrees, you do not join points 2 and 4 of the same wave PRIMARY.
I thought it could be understood without having to draw a picture.

line 2-4

https://i.imgur.com/hFjfolZ.jpg

The channel drawn on the Bitcoin chart is not an Elliott Wave channel, its just an arbitrary classical Technical Analysis trendline capturing the most points on a trend; of which, a number of interpretations can be made.

I say again that I am not talking about the channel,
I'm talking about line 2-4
And I don't think it's normal for wave 5 PRIMARY to break line extension 2-4

https://i.imgur.com/vNKzeIs.jpg

Don't see it as an issue, happens all the time. If this didn't happen, the charts would be picture perfect and very predictable !

Take a look at Apple: https://i.ibb.co/kcyzMmR/apple.png

ok thanks, I remember reading something about it being a rule, but I'm not much of an Elliot expert.

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/02/20230218-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/02/20230218-bncblx.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/02/20230218-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/02/20230218-btcusd.png)

Have you set the maximum PRIMARY[5] just coinciding with the halving, was it intentional or by chance?

that is, until now the halving date has preceded the most bullish phase, which has lasted several months, it would be the first time that the halving coincides with a maximum.

The ghost grey projection of INTERMEDIATE(5) is more or less based on INTERMEDIATE(3) wave. This is because INTERMEDIATE(3) was the most recent bull market, and may still carry similar socionomic metrics forward in the current INTERMEDIATE(5) bull market.

If INTERMEDIATE(5) unfolds similarly to INTERMEDIATE(3) wave; in time this would approximate near the 2024 Halving.

Just using a historical benchmark of INTERMEDIATE(3) wave at the moment, which will be refined in price and time as the waves and events unfold.

Okay, thank you very much for the clarification.
I see that that would break the current cycle, where the halving is halfway to the maximum.
I suppose that at some point the halving will stop having that influence on the price, although I don't know if it can be now.

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/03/20230304-bncblx-1.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/03/20230304-bncblx-1.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/03/20230304-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/03/20230304-btcusd.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/03/20230304-btcusd-1.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/03/20230304-btcusd-1.png)

Congrats, nailed that wave 2.

Guesswork at best; sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't !

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/03/20230320-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/03/20230320-btcusd.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/20230402-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/20230402-btcusd.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/20230418-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/20230418-btcusd.png)

I see that you mark the 36k,
but what would it be?
Are you pointing it out because there could be a significant correction in time or price?
Thanks!

Yes, the following chart suggests potential Fibonnaci-based resistance zones to consider on the linear and logarithmic scales...

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/20230420-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/20230420-btcusd.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/20230422-btcusd-1.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/20230422-btcusd-1.png)

That is the price range we are going to be stuck at for a long time, potentially all year long as well. That's what 36k is, we have 28k at the bottom and 36k at the top and the price will hit 36k this year I believe, sometime not too long in the future neither. But after that, we are going to have hard time breaking over 36k and under 28k and just jump around between those prices. Maybe as further as the halving period as well, remember last time halving happened, we got a little drop first, but then we had a huge increase afterwards.

I think 36k will be broken in 2024, but don't know when it will be, but I highly doubt that it would do that this year. And I think this chart doesn't say it can't be, but that doesn't mean it can neither, shows the potential.

A plausible count to support your thoughts...

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/20230423-btcusd.png

I don't know what you mean by "earn wave" but it sounds like a lot of people are going to have a hard time predicting the price of Bitcoin. 
 
The thing is, we can't be sure if the price will go up or down in the next 24 hours or even a few hours from now. 
 
If you look at the chart you can see that there is a lot of uncertainty in the price of Bitcoin, which is something that can't be predicted by anything in the market right now. 
 
So, it's not a prediction but a market trend.

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/05/20230528-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/05/20230528-btcusd.png)

It's obvious that the price of bitcoin is unpredictable, you can give your own analysis concerning bitcoin due to your observations and another person will also render its own analysis suggestions or ideas depending its ability of understanding bitcoin, the price of bitcoin goes up when it wants to go up.

I remember I used to study Elliot waves back in my stock trading days. And found it fascinating however when I tried to apply it to real trading I found it to be flawed.

Basically when you look at them in hindsight you know what wave you are in however in real time the wave can change. So I basically stopped using it along with Fibonacci because these indicators rarely are accurate. But at least I hope it works for you.

I'm no fan of Elliot Wave, I believe it to be too subjective, as there are always a combination of different possibilities when considering different waves based on the highs and lows, but I will acknowledge your initial chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5434401.msg61581467#msg61581467) from January this year looks somewhat plausible. Certainly based on the theory we could well be in the second wave correction after the first parabolic wave.

My main scepticism however is Bitcoin reaching a new ATH prior to the halving, which while is possible, I think remains very unlikely.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but your waves could be drawn very differently based on the amount of optimism you have. There we could be in an Elliot Wave pattern at present, but only one that leads to $50K-60K as opposed to the $200K+ target that you have for the halving.  On another note your 2022 EW prediction didn't pan out so well, which kind of proves my point here.

Also to note that these fractals or theories are much better when there is more confirmation of their existence. For example being in a 3rd or 4th wave has a good pattern confirmation of a 5-wave move. In contrast anticipating a first wave (even correctly) could be completely coincidental and not lead to the 5-wave pattern, let alone a 2nd or 3rd wave. So for now, there remains very little confirmation of this general theoy.

The projection is indicative of structure and form based on the prior waves within the same PRIMARY degree waveset, not time. So yes, may not achieve all-time highs until after the halving is a possibility.

If you look at the history of the Bitcoin price, it always shows an Eliot wave every halving,
so you could say the Bitcoin price will be bullish towards the halving or after,
but we also have to be able to prepare a strategy so we don't get carried away if the Eliot wave from Bitcoin fails,
so hopefully Bitcoin will be bullish in 2024.

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/20230610-bnbusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/20230610-bnbusd.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/20230610-fttusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/20230610-fttusd.png)

Basically when you look at them in hindsight you know what wave you are in however in real time the wave can change and But after that, we are going to have hard time breaking over 36k and under 28k and just jump around between those prices and  Also to note that these fractals or theories are much better when there is more confirmation of their existence and And found it fascinating however when I tried to apply it to real trading I found it to be flawed and but your waves could be drawn very differently based on the amount of optimism you have.

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/20230621-bncblx-1.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/20230621-bncblx-1.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/20230621-btcusd-1.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/20230621-btcusd-1.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/08/20230818-bncblx-1.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/08/20230818-bncblx-1.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/08/20230818-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/08/20230818-btcusd.png)

Just logging in to say that I really enjoy these threads and reading peoples' analysis   ;D

Thank you, its just guesswork at best !

Even to an extent bitcoin price can be determined with all this kind apparatus or system they are using to predict the values of bitcoin, I know quite well that if you want to follow the systematic way of bitcoin you have to follow it with precautions, so therefore bitcoin price always fluctuates and since the value of bitcoin fluctuates I don't think I can belive in any predictions or any scenarios given by anyone via bitcoin price.

posibly?

https://i.ibb.co/JytKr50/20230819-elliot.jpg (https://ibb.co/D8Wtw5s)

Possible, if 30K is cleared.

I had doubts because I have always thought that the B of a plane could not be the shortest.

Wave 2 is probably another type of correction, rather than flat.

But as you say, if it exceeds $30k, we will have to think that we are in the 3

The rising wave which started from the low of 11-SEP, does appear to be corrective. So, this provides a clue that a B-wave uptrend is likely...

https://i.ibb.co/y0Jygc9/btcusd.png

IMO the current pump is not consistent with the EW count presented, so it should be something else...
Could you post a count in which this pump goes to 2 of A (assuming the 15.5 k$ bottom was 1 of A)?

Yes, the current rally, driven by BlackRock Bitcoin ETF speculation, has proven the anticipated short-term EW count to be incorrect.  :(

Current guesswork suggests the following two scenarios:

BULL : A weekly close above $36,000 ought to suggest the bull scenario may be underway.
BEAR : A decline below $30,000 ought to suggest the bear scenario may be underway.

In either scenario, the current guesswork is an expectation of resistance around the $36,000 zone.

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/10/20231025-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/10/20231025-btcusd.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/12/20231205-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/12/20231205-bncblx.png)

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/12/20231205-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2023/12/20231205-btcusd.png)

the 3 Primaries, 1-3-5,
they look similar,
with the halving right in the middle

What hurry are you for the (i) to finish?
could reach over $50k
and the (ii) after 40k$ ;D

A steeper pullback now would reset the overbought technical momentum indicators, and would then bode well for the next uptrend wave to blast through $50K  ;D

Yes, although the market often does the opposite of what we believe,
how to continue rising with overbought.
Well, they are possible scenarios.

There is nothing happening in the market without an explanation, only that people do not often know the reason why the market made some moves. This is mainly because they might not have the right set of indicators/strategies that will point in that direction or warn them of the possible things which the market might do. And if the strategy/indicator has already pointed to an overbought/oversold condition, it means that the trader needs to be careful and take no decision at that time no matter how they are being tempted to do. This subsists even if they see the market move so much in the direction, just as they always believe they would have gained through it, but it could be a trap. What happens at that time is that the market sentiment is strong at the time and it will take time before it subsides. But for those who have the scalping and short-term ambition towards the market trading, they can still continue to gain towards that direction until the market does otherwise. But must be ready to manage their trading account tightly and use tight stop loss as well.

Also about Bitcoin, it's obvious that it's overbought, it would be slowing the bullish movements down if it didn't shed so many pips it gathered in order to take a breath so as to have the needed power to launch further upwards. But I doubt if the $50,000 will happen again this year. In the process of the coin taking this corrective breath, it would take time before it achieves that even as it still continues to make a bullish pattern again. The year is almost gone and 2 weeks is not enough to achieve this.

That's not quite right. Usually in the market something happens first, then the price reacts to this event, then news appears. The cryptocurrency market is very manipulative, so sometimes price movements are not in favour of traders. Of course there are global things that affect all markets, but in cryptocurrency there are often surprises.

Yes, 2 weeks is a very limited time,
However, it is not impossible that next week it will make 18% and reach $50k
In fact, 2 weeks ago it made 14%

The most violent movements occur with overbought and a lot of fomo.
I don't know if next week will be one of those times.

Socionomics, which is related to Elliott Wave, provides an interpretation of cause & effect:
https://socionomics.net/what-is-socionomics/

https://socionomics.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Perception-vs-Reality-1024x687.jpg

Elliott Wave still on track?

A decline to around $36K-$37K is possible, and ought to bottom in Feb.

It does seem the 0.382 may hold

Can't rule out the following 7 wave decline structure unless price advances to $42K...

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2024/01/20240124-btcusd.png 

Can we rule out the 7 wave decline structure? The 0.382 did hold. What is the EW projected pricing?

The 7 wave decline structure didn't transpire.
Although just 3 waves up so far from the 23-JAN-2024 low, the next uptrend ought to be underway now.
Should the current pace of price advance continue, it is plausible to suggest new all-time highs by the mid-APR Halving.
Upcoming Fibonacci-based resistance prices zones are illustrated on the chart below...

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2024/02/20240213-btcusd.png

 
New Thread: 2024 Elliott Wave (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5485551)
 

Not only was it not corrective, but it was the beginning of something very big. 8)
The waves are deceiving.