2023 Elliott Wave

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[CookieFactory]

Curious that your count for Bitcoin has us starting Wave 5 but Wave 3 for equities. Do you see a great decoupling to come or is it just there's no time frame data to be gleaned from the counts (i..e differing wave counts could play out within the same time frame)?

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Curious that your count for Bitcoin has us starting Wave 5 but Wave 3 for equities. Do you see a great decoupling to come or is it just there's no time frame data to be gleaned from the counts (i..e differing wave counts could play out within the same time frame)?

Each market, each asset class, each stock, is in their own Elliott Wave trajectory. There are times when markets correlate, and there are times when markets decouple.

There are variations in wave degree where markets may correlate with each other, but one market could be in say PRIMARY[3] and an other market in INTERMEDIATE(3) degree —both in bull markets, but the at the time of correction, one leads with a steeper decline and slower recovery. E.g.

—Japan NIKKEI225 index was decoupled from the rest of the developed equities world in the 1990s for decades onwards, re-aligned in 2009.
—Bitcoin greatly decoupled from the S&P500 and global equity markets starting in 2014 for a year, and started to correlate with gold.
—Gold has usually been, and thought of, as a decoupled hedge against equites, but has been correlated since 2015.

Interestingly, the current PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(5) wave in Bitcoin could be the longest wave within PRIMARY[5]. This would be a reverse symmetry of the wave lengths (in terms of percentages) that occurred in PRIMARY[1] wave; i.e. the waves within PRIMARY[1] contracted, and the waves within PRIMARY[5] are expanded...

[josegines]

I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

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I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !

[josegines]

I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !

and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !

and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?

—In equity markets wave3 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.
—In commodity markets wave5 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.

To know why this happens, watch from 1:23:18 to 1:28:24: https://youtu.be/jJA58dxmzQk?t=4998

[Kryptowerk]

It's very interesting to see how the long-term projections also align well with halving-cycles and the increase of value for Bitcoin.
Just from previous experience this Elliot-wave pattern seems very plausible. But then again, any kind of prediction works great until it doesn't anymore.
Personally I would expect a similar outcome mid/long term - however many unforseen events can have strong short-term impacts that would disrupt this pattern for a while quite significantly.

[josegines]

I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !

and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?

—In equity markets wave3 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.
—In commodity markets wave5 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.

To know why this happens, watch from 1:23:18 to 1:28:24: https://youtu.be/jJA58dxmzQk?t=4998

I am not referring to the channel, I am talking about an Elliot rule that wave 5 cannot cut the extension of line 2-4

Sorry, now I have doubts, the rule is that line 2-4 should not be cut by wave 3. Although I have always thought that wave 5 could not cut the extension of line 2-4, unless wave 5 was a terminal wedge

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I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !

and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?

—In equity markets wave3 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.
—In commodity markets wave5 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.

To know why this happens, watch from 1:23:18 to 1:28:24: https://youtu.be/jJA58dxmzQk?t=4998

I am not referring to the channel, I am talking about an Elliot rule that wave 5 cannot cut the extension of line 2-4

Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?

Either of the following are possible:

[josegines]

I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !

and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?

—In equity markets wave3 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.
—In commodity markets wave5 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.

To know why this happens, watch from 1:23:18 to 1:28:24: https://youtu.be/jJA58dxmzQk?t=4998

I am not referring to the channel, I am talking about an Elliot rule that wave 5 cannot cut the extension of line 2-4

Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?

Either of the following are possible:

but your BTC count is not any of these 3, you draw a channel, but the bottom line is not wave 2-4 PRIMARY, you are joining two points of different degrees, you do not join points 2 and 4 of the same wave PRIMARY.
I thought it could be understood without having to draw a picture.

[josegines]

Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?

line 2-4

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?

line 2-4

https://i.imgur.com/hFjfolZ.jpg

The channel drawn on the Bitcoin chart is not an Elliott Wave channel, its just an arbitrary classical Technical Analysis trendline capturing the most points on a trend; of which, a number of interpretations can be made.

[josegines]

Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?

line 2-4

https://i.imgur.com/hFjfolZ.jpg

The channel drawn on the Bitcoin chart is not an Elliott Wave channel, its just an arbitrary classical Technical Analysis trendline capturing the most points on a trend; of which, a number of interpretations can be made.

I say again that I am not talking about the channel,
I'm talking about line 2-4
And I don't think it's normal for wave 5 PRIMARY to break line extension 2-4

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?

line 2-4

https://i.imgur.com/hFjfolZ.jpg

The channel drawn on the Bitcoin chart is not an Elliott Wave channel, its just an arbitrary classical Technical Analysis trendline capturing the most points on a trend; of which, a number of interpretations can be made.

I say again that I am not talking about the channel,
I'm talking about line 2-4
And I don't think it's normal for wave 5 PRIMARY to break line extension 2-4
https://i.imgur.com/vNKzeIs.jpg

Don't see it as an issue, happens all the time. If this didn't happen, the charts would be picture perfect and very predictable !

Take a look at Apple: https://i.ibb.co/kcyzMmR/apple.png

[josegines]

Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?

line 2-4

https://i.imgur.com/hFjfolZ.jpg

The channel drawn on the Bitcoin chart is not an Elliott Wave channel, its just an arbitrary classical Technical Analysis trendline capturing the most points on a trend; of which, a number of interpretations can be made.

I say again that I am not talking about the channel,
I'm talking about line 2-4
And I don't think it's normal for wave 5 PRIMARY to break line extension 2-4
https://i.imgur.com/vNKzeIs.jpg

Don't see it as an issue, happens all the time. If this didn't happen, the charts would be picture perfect and very predictable !

Take a look at Apple: https://i.ibb.co/kcyzMmR/apple.png

ok thanks, I remember reading something about it being a rule, but I'm not much of an Elliot expert.

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[josegines]

...

Have you set the maximum PRIMARY[5] just coinciding with the halving, was it intentional or by chance?

that is, until now the halving date has preceded the most bullish phase, which has lasted several months, it would be the first time that the halving coincides with a maximum.

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...

Have you set the maximum PRIMARY[5] just coinciding with the halving, was it intentional or by chance?

that is, until now the halving date has preceded the most bullish phase, which has lasted several months, it would be the first time that the halving coincides with a maximum.

The ghost grey projection of INTERMEDIATE(5) is more or less based on INTERMEDIATE(3) wave. This is because INTERMEDIATE(3) was the most recent bull market, and may still carry similar socionomic metrics forward in the current INTERMEDIATE(5) bull market.

If INTERMEDIATE(5) unfolds similarly to INTERMEDIATE(3) wave; in time this would approximate near the 2024 Halving.

Just using a historical benchmark of INTERMEDIATE(3) wave at the moment, which will be refined in price and time as the waves and events unfold.