Bitcoin Forum

Golden cross is a technical analysis pattern where 50-days simple moving crosses(SMA) crosses above SMA 200, it is potentially considered as an early signal of bullish trend, and may indicate sustained uptrend in stock market This golden cross has recently occurred on S & P chat. Given the traditional correlation between stocks and Bitcoin, this may be seen as good news for Bitcoin investors and could potentially drive sustained buying in crypto currency. DYOR

https://i.imgur.com/uM9fBAr.jpg


https://beincrypto.com/golden-cross-sp-500-early-bitcoin-bull-market/

The S&P 500 usually gives hope to traders and motivates them to feel joyful because it gives an easy-to-follow bullish technical signal from this crossover on the price chart because most of the big rises of Bitcoin often begin with a golden cross, and this signal makes us know that the market's short-term gains have exceeded its long-term gains. It is, in fact, a prior prediction of higher prices in the long term, but perhaps not all golden crosses lead to a significant rise, and what I know is that the Bitcoin currency has witnessed eight golden crosses so far, and three of them were with gains that exceeded 100%, and in my opinion, the golden cross on bitcoin often motivate traders on entering the market and buying with fresh bids.

Yes it would impact cryptos because we are risk on like stocks. However the question is whether this cross will actually work out. In the past whenever we got these MA crosses it sometimes worked and sometimes was a nice trap. So pretty much works 50% of the time. And at that point you pretty much can just use another indicator.

You are correct, it is a technical pattern which has probability of success but there is no guarantee that it will work in all cases. Technical analysts are generally based on historical data & patterns, but it is not a perfect science. The past performance of any pattern doesn't mean that they will also work in future. I think it is a good idea to use multiple indicators to have better understanding of market sentiment/condition, and to confirm your trading decision.

There is no direct relationship or correlation between what is happening in the S & P chat and the price of Bitcoin, just as the 50-days simple moving crosses (SMA) crosses above SMA 200 will give a wrong signal because it measures the change in the last 200 days and that what happened during the last 50 days It is a good sign compared to the last 200 days, but it is not so in view of the long-term trend.


Do not forget that breaking the upcoming resistance levels will not be easy, and therefore we may need months for that.

It has lot of impact on the crypto actually. One of the article that I was reading earlier this morning suggest same thing. Big investors actually look for the signs of investment into crypto from S&P 500 moves, how they are earning in the current timeline and whether there is any chance if they are having their investments into the crypto market as well.

One fine article does suggest big investors actually look for FED chairs speeches all the time to see in what direction an economy is moving and how it could indirectly affect the crypto market.

I am positive that you technical analysis data could be related with the increased in bitcoin purchase activity or at least it will spark one day.

Many times this has had a positive impact on crypto and we can expect same for this time also but if we look closer the weekly chart which clearly indicate that breaking 24k resistance is not so easy. Many time BTC tried to break but buying volume is not enough to do it. Btc need a very high volume to break 24k and then 28k resistance. In previous 3/5 times resulted in BTC Dump.

We accept that this is one factor, to some extent it has an effect but there are some other factors like whale pump and dump, economic situation which may has negative affect and Golden cross not work.

My personal thought is that we can see small correction in BTC to liquidate long users and weak hand also start selling than BTC price will sudden skyrocket.

Yeah, if I remember correctly, this is the not the first time, and for sure not the last one that we are going to see in bitcoin. And in the past, it's surely a hit or miss on it. Of course there could be correlation with other market, but we all know that there are times that bitcoin will suddenly divert on these so called indicators like Golden Cross and others. So we will see if this could trigger something big, or obviously, nothing has happen in the last couple of days for us, the price is still very volatile and fluctuating between numbers.

Sometimes what happens in S&P 500 do have a bit correlation with Bitcoin and hence sometimes precede the direction of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as well. If there is Golden cross in the S&P 500, I think that could be a good signals for Bitcoin that we could have a potential Strong upwards movement in the coming days and months ahead.

This scenario is possible because Bitcoin is finding it hard to stay above 23,000, although it broke psychological barrier of 24,000 after 0.25% interest rate increase announcement. which was generally welcomed by all markets. If correction happens, it is expected to drop to its next strong support of 21,700 on weekly chart. Despite this, I remain optimistic on Bitcoin, as long as it stays above its 200 days simple moving average, currently around 19,700.

The Golden cross in the S&P 500 index didn't have any immediate impact on the price of Bitcoin, it might be a positive sign for medium to long term outlook.

In Bitcoin, for investors, golden cross is not too meaningful.

They can simply experience and know about 4-year cycle. How bull market starts, how long does it usually last, and how does bear market begin and last.

Usually with 4 year cycle, Bitcoin has 1 bullish year, 2 bearish year and 1 warm-up year before a halving year. If an investor does not want to DCA and skip all market conditions, a good choice is wait for about more than 1 year and up to 2 years after an all time high to buy Bitcoin. Good price for Bitcoin can be gotten for your investment and you will have to wait about one more year till a next bull run.

Until inflation is down and the economy recovers we are not going to see a bull run, you have to look at the full picture, inflation is up, interest rates are through the roof and most countries are laden with massive debts, more than 40% of people in the USA and canada cannot afford their mortgages when they have to renew, the economic recession/collapse is going to be biblical, save your money your going to need it, lay offs are going to spread beyond the tech sector, ford missed their sales target by a billion dollars, people aren't spending. Buckle up. this golden cross can be fail like 2015 btc dip down from 265$  to 245$. Most successful Golden cross was in the year of 2019 but it not seems to be be done this year because of so many negative factor

It is true that economic situation in many countries is concerning, with high inflation rates, increasing interest rates and significant level of debt. The challenges many households facing, such as difficulty in affording mortgages, are also cause of concern. Regarding potential of bull run in the stock & crypto market, there are many factors to consider beyond golden cross , such as, general state of economy, corporate earning, global events. While historical patterns such as golden cross can provide some guidance but there is no guarantee of future performance.

You are correct in this analysis and likewise I don't think a particular indicator can be enough to trigger an order for bitcoin. Apart from your analysis on waiting for halving and the unlikely spike from any indicator, I think because bitcoin is not regulated so S $ P chart analysis wouldn't be well directional for bitcoin. It is moved by halving and more of fundamental/news and not technical analysis most of the time.

Correct, technical signal generated by a particular indicator is not enough to determine next direction of Bitcoin or any other traceable asset, it should be confirmed by multiple indicators. In addition to golden cross of S&P500, similar golden cross also occurred on Bitcoin chart on Feb 7th, 2023 when 50SMA crossed 200SMA. This provides further evidence of potential uptrend in Bitcoin. Several well-known analysts predict that if Bitcoin can surpass 30,000 price level level and stays above it for few weeks, it could trigger significantly in Bitcoin. however, it is important to remember that technical analysis is one part of the larger picture, fundamental factors can also impact price of Bitcoin.

https://cryptonews.com/news/bitcoin-golden-cross-confirmed-what-next-for-btc-price.htm

It is true to have a mindset for long term investment with that we will focus on fundamentals of Bitcoin, blockchain technology and reasons that make us believe in future of this technology and of Bitcoin.

Golden cross and death cross don't have constant impacts on Bitcoin price. Sometimes price is up with death cross and sometimes price is down a lot with golden cross. You can check those crosses and price of Bitcoin in the past with chart. You can also check those crosses with SPX that has longer data than Bitcoin. No constant impacts to confirm that price will move up or down after those crosses occur.

I only know and believe with halving, price will be up.

https://i.imgur.com/nXwaxXf.png

It seems that the price of S&P 500 index is correlated with Bitcoin just with a twist. Because as you can see, the volatility of Bitcoin is extremely high.
As you can see on the chart, both of these assets went down and up together but by the same percentage at.
So for me, they have correlated somehow. So for me, this golden cross on S & P chart is a good sign also for Bitcoin.

A golden cross does not mean price will always move up after that. Historic data of SPX proves that it is not a too good indicator.

I'm thinking more about a fractal between 2019 and 2023 runs and how Bitcoin ended 2019 year with price that is not too high from start of 2019. Perhaps history will repeat in 2023, let's say it will not repeat 100% but very similarly.

Some tweets from Lukasz_wydra give you more data
https://twitter.com/lukasz_wydra/status/1625066779058794497

https://twitter.com/lukasz_wydra/status/1622900213504528389

You are correct, there are instances when we see correlation between these two variables, but it doesn't necessarily mean that there is any causal relationship or underlying trend driving the co-relationship. It has been often observed that this relation between stocks and Bitcoin market holds true during the low volatility period but may weaken or even disappear during the time of growth & high volatility. We should always remember that macro-economic factors play crucial role in shaping the trends of markets.

I don't think it's a good idea to look at the chart and see if it's going to be bullish or not. 
 
You can see the price of Bitcoin at $7,000-$8,000 right now. 
 
There's a lot of speculation going on in the market, but it's not going to be a good time to buy. 
 
As long as you're willing to wait for the bull run to come, you're in for a long bear market.

Why did you try to connect S&P 500 as well as golden cross from it to Bitcoin?

Bitcoin does not have two years in red continuously and that is its history. If you believe that history won't be broken, this year will be in green. A next year will be a halving year and again with history, halving year is great for bitcoin as well as one year after that.

I will consider about Bitcoin history as it is more important than what's happening with S&P500.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/yearly-candles/

This is a good analysis. I believe that this year should be a bit green, next year a bit more green and the year after that should be fully green from everywhere. That is how the 4 year cycle works, bad year, a bit better year, a lot better year of halving, and the best year, then bear year again. That is the four year cycle and we are on the second year of it now, we are done with bear year, we are doing fine this year, and better than this next year and a lot better year after that.

I bet that we will see 100k+ next year sometime, and more than that in 2025 as well, it should be like that based on history at least. Could it be broken? Maybe, I mean anything could happen but I am not entirely sure if that will be the case in this one, it could happen or maybe it won't, we have to wait and see.