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There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

Inflation is the main factor of recession which US is currently battling now. Global GDP is cause inflation for a long term that might result to hyperinflation if the government failed to solve it earlier. Too much growth on GDP can give a bad effect if left unchecked.

I believe this is exactly what happening on the US right now that’s why many economist is predicting for a recession.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/gdpinflation.asp

There are already foundations, NGO’s, groups and much more which are formed across the globe however we are failing to achieve the desired results. I think there are as much as worlds leading community’s doing there best to resist the climate change. 

UN Environment Programme
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC)
the Green Climate Fund(GCF)
Climate Investment Funds

And much more to count on. The list is big and growing all the time as we seek real organisations to fight this through for the sake of humanity.

I am not sure how much successful it is or will be but we do have plans for all. It’s just that we have made it worst in this world and god knows how far we gonna get.

Doesn't a drop in inflation normally cause a recession under some of the criteria (ie gdp could drop if domestic spending falls - that could be a particular problem for the larger and more exposed economies like the US and China but I imagine it'd go further than that and cause something more global).

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I wouldn't bet on it but there's been a lot of speculation governments have become better at handling recessions for the people that experience it the most (generally by giving cash or resource handouts - though they seem to be more Conservative/right wing overall now and there's a chance that's stunting growth like it normally does).

As time passes and we become better informed on challenges and obstacles we face. I believe we will naturally acclimate and adapt to the changing world and its shifting circumstances. Our survival and prosperity will depend upon us doing so. The only question is what form our adaptation will take. I think there are always people doing crazy things we would not expect, taking things to extremes that are both shocking and surprising. When it comes to topics like climate change and global recessions, I think it will be no different. There will be many who will address these topics in ways we would not expect, using any loophole or advantage they can find to do things that are unexpected.

Our culture and society will adapt and shift to meet these challenges head on. To some degree, I think these changes are already manifesting. They say the best way to predict the future is to invent it. And undoubtedly there are many who are taking this to heart.

I won't say we are technically into a recession yet but the foundation is being built for sure! Global tech and marketing companies are firing people like crazy because they understand that there will be a huge decline in the demand. Some product based companies are not going to meet their revenue forecast. Things are tough!

But as you rightly said that it will be less severe than 2008, hopefully! The GDP growth hasn't stopped but slowed down for sure. Unless the inflation is tackled, you will get into a recession for sure!

It's both. Why a lot of economists and speculators are somewhat expecting a global recession because their personal analysis of fundamental data is telling them that it should occur. But regardless, in the end it's still speculation because no one simply knows for sure if it will occur. People are just placing bets.

I think we're already entering it, and it's not just because of the war. Two years of the pandemic hit the economy hard as well, and recessions just happen from time to time because I don't think constant growth without setbacks is even possible.
Maybe it won't hit as hard as the previous one initially did, but perhaps it will be a longer period of a milder stagnation. Also, not all countries and areas of life will be hit equally. Those that seem likely to be hit harder are the energy sector and food sector. Last time it was stocks, debt bonds.

Well recessions are generally by surprise. Nobody expects a recession when it happens.

Right now, everybody and I mean everybody is talking about a recession. So this leads me to think it won't happen and this "soft landing" by the fed might be actually possible. What is preventing a recession right now is the tight job market. Even though inflation is high, people are still working and looking for higher paying jobs and that's why everything is still functional. If the job market doesn't crash then we might get a soft landing.

However the way it looks right now, with next week CPI, it might indicate that the fed needs to raise interest rates even higher. And doing so will create even more problems for the job market. So its impossible to say whether or not we will get a recession.

whenever there is a bitcoin ATH there is always a correction.. expect it. its normal

whenever there is a excessive fiat inflation there is always a correction(oops recession).. expect it. its normal

..
here is the thing though.
fiat money has different layers

there are the m0,m1,m2,m3 layers

when inflation occurs. but that excess money it pushed to the institutions. it does not reach the normal citizens(much*). thus doesnt change citizens lives(much*).. thus no one is (much*) better off at the bottom

when those debt created moneys are clawed back. and recession happens only at the institutional level. it only affects them big time(mostly*).
..  (*it can trickle down and citizens see their favourite business/service no longer open. and a few temporary events of unemployment. and some richguys going poor.
but generally normal citizens dont "feel it")

however when new excessive inflation money is thrown at the citizens (trick up)
citizens love it they spend the extra "government cheques" (free money)

but that causes businesses to raise their goods/services prices.
and then when the "free money" stops. citizens at the bottom dont have excess income. but see excessive prices

i wont go through all the different versions of inflation where money is designated for different levels and reactions to other levels. but you get the general idea
inflation and recessions can help/harm different groups depending on how the funds are first distributed and then clawed back

There is a rule in economics that says as long as there is something expected, the damage resulting from the expectation is less serious than the possibility of the expectation occurring.
And therefore, as long as people expect a recession, if it does happen it will be less severe, although I am surprised that it was not as severe as it was shown in the previous month of June.

Unexpected things are the ones that have a devastating effect. Therefore, I hope that many political changes will not occur this year, because their impact will be greater and deeper.

I think the fear of a global recession is just speculation. Almost every negative event imaginable has already happened. Inflation has started to come down gradually. No one is interested in driving the economy into a real recession.

Yes, there is a well-known concept called " The expectation effect". When majority of the people anticipate a negative event, such as recession, they will adjust their behavior accordingly, which can mitigate the impact of event. However, sometimes it doesn't work, the reality of negative event can still be much worse than what was expected. This can be true when other factors are at play, such as, sudden and unexpected shock to the economy.

You are correct that political changes can also create instability and disrupt the economy.

Well if you read what the fed wants is they want lower inflation basically at 2%. And they also want a good economy. Pretty much a soft landing. However there is a feedback loop.

If there is a tight labor market then inflation will always be at risk. Because to find workers employers need to pay them more which comes at a cost to the customer. So inflation increases.

So if the fed wants to fight inflation then they need higher unemployment , how do you do that without causing a recession ? It’s very difficult.

I think it is real. Haven't you seen what happened to the iphone sales?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64506940

If that's not recession, then I don't know what is. Iphone is simply the best electronic device that everyone wants to buy but somehow people can't do that. That's because they have to pay for their rent, food, water etc and there isn't any money left to buy an iphone.

Lots have happened within the space of 2022 in both the traditional environment and crypto market that could lesser recession even it comes as they say, it is possible that we might experience a recession or maybe not but the more I look into this headline, the more I see it as a tool by opposition government to tackle democratic party as a message to people that he didn't do well in his regime and should be replaced after his first time in office. Another reason why I think the recession is a tool that people have been trying to exploit is the bears in crypto and also Tradfi, they are trying to make people fear that we will be going down another history where the economy will be in a downtrend so that everyone can sell their shares and bitcoin, it is all visible from their write up and reaction.

Didn't we already saw some of it or its clue already happened? That has triggered the inflation rate for most countries to go up and I think that it's for real.

Yeah, the media might romanticizing it but there's a point that it actually exist/existed.

With the tech industry, too many of employees are being laid off and note that we're done with the peak of the pandemic crisis although the war is still there but, to relate that isn't really close at all.

After we have battled the pandemic and not gone extinct, survived the great toilet paper shortage, and managed to survive without cooking oil,  surprisingly we here in Europe haven't yet frozen to death, we have been able to avoid eating our pet hamsters, managed to survive another wood, lumber and coal shortage, seems like even the egg crisis will go away and despite the fears of bankruptcy and recessions the EU economy is still growing (inflationary adjusted), how could one that has witnessed all this fearmongering and all the experts predicting a billion crises feel?


How do you deal with earthquakes? Besides, do you have any source for that increasing number and frequency?

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/earthquake-deaths?time=1950..2017
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/decadal-deaths-disasters-type?country=~OWID_WRL
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/economic-losses-from-disasters-share-gdp


Look from all angles:
https://ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/revenues
- it went down 5% compared to 2021 but it's still 5% bigger than 2020 and 30% compared to 2019.
Leaving aside the lockdowns in China, there have been already signs immediately after the launch of the 14 that a lot of users will simply not upgrade just for that, iPhones are optimized to run easily and no 13 users are experiencing any hiccups so a lot of them are deciding to upgrade less frequently, my father is still happy with his first one, an xs and doesn't plan on ever changing it unless it breaks.
Apple will need to adjust its business model, this is not 2014 anymore when you could double specs in two years.

After everything that happened within the few years, after the pandemic, there are a lot of considerations and events that have an impact on the possible global recession. A lot of people have been having a hard time with having the necessities and just living. It's a sign of a possible recession.

When the government decides to bail out again, the problem now would be the supply of money, and then it would end up with higher rates to cover up the supply.

Definitely real.

I do not know how to face the challenges of natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes and floods. These cannot be faced, but their effects can only be mitigated. Is there a way to prevent earthquakes, hurricanes and floods from occurring? I don "t think so.

The only thing that can be addressed is climate change caused by man due to his industrial and nuclear activities, as well as bloody wars that contribute to the destruction of human resources and cause significant climate pollution.

However, the major industrial countries refuse to reduce their environmental polluting activities, and powerful countries cannot be prevented from waging wars on weak countries, so what is the solution?

Based on the kind of country I live in and the current happenings here, I think it has reach a point where I personally, I'm no longer afraid of anything, be it a global recession of whatever, you guys can ask my fellow Nigerians, what is currently happening in Nigeria is having a huge negative effects on the citizens, far more than the effect of a global recession would have.

Like I always say, I don't think we will ever arrive at a stage in this world 🗺 where everything will be just fine, every nation living at peace, no natural disasters of any kind, people loving and caring for each other all over the world.
I don't mean to be negative minded, but I speak the fact, the sooner we learn to deal with any problem(s) we are faced with at any given time, the better.

I think the fed, even though they are talking about 2 percent inflation, will stop at 4 percent. They are just using hawkish rhetoric now solely for market speculation. don't trust them. As it say, nothing personal - just business.

Significant risk to world economy are leech politicians and businessmen, big corporations that think that they deserve all the money while working class has to surrender in pain.
Why isn't ministry of economics in any country facing a sentence for economic decline? Why do they always tell us that here is or will be a recession? Because they want it and they want to slowly get people used to it.

How can iPhone sells statistics help you to say whether we have a recession or not? There are a lot of factors that play the role:
1. There isn't that much upgrade from iPhone 13 to make it worth to sell old one and buy a new iPhone 14.
2. There are other competitors in the market like Samsung, Xiaomi, Google Pixel and Sony.
3. You have to keep in mind a marketing factor.
4. Probably more and more people understand that it's not necessary to upgrade your gadget every year.
5. Probably all the negative speculations around Europe played its role to stop people from buying unnecessary expensive gadgets.

You are correct that it is impossible to prevent natural disasters, such as earthquakes, hurricanes and floods as they are largely driven by geological or meteorological forces. However, their impact can be reduced through early warning system, effective planning, preparedness measures and fostering international cooperation. It is also important to address the underlying factors such as climate change that can reduce severity of their effects.

Inflation is falling, but while businesses are starting to lay off employees, it shows that the economy is still unstable and not out of danger. Experts make recession predictions not unfounded, it is clear that economic data is showing it. But I think this recession will not be as severe as in 2007, but the economic situation depends a lot on the war between Russia and Ukraine. If the situation is more stressful, economic worsening is inevitable.

since Q3 2022, many parties have been frying about the potential for a severe global recession in 2023, but thankfully until now this has not happened and the economies in many countries are still strong and stable. many parties must be involved to prevent a recession from happening and hopefully, the world's economy will really be the farthest from being called a recession.

Even if it does not happen I do not think it is wrong to think about taking precautions against it, after all it is easy to get complacent and believe it will not happen, but if something were to happen which led us towards a global recession you will be unprepared for it and then you will suffer massive consequences by ignoring the threat, but what can you do? Avoid getting more debt and pay whatever money you owe at the moment, and if you still have some money left invest in good assets like gold or bitcoin, which could do well under those circumstances.

Another issue to think about is the domino effect.

If people are so certain there will be a recession, they will prepare for it now. So they will spend less. By spending less businesses make less money. And then they need to lay people off and then there might be a recession because it’s dominos together.

People are already holding off on buying many luxury goods because they want to be liquid.

I could agree with you about the fact that iPhone is definitely loved by many, but one of the other reasons for this is that there are other competitions which are getting better. Samsung is a great phone brand right now that already does so many things better than an iphone does, they have phones which are both at high end, but also phones that are brand new and yet cheap.

That allows people to not spend a lot of money, if I want to buy a brand new iphone 14, I would have to spend three times more than what a cheap samsung would be and I rather not spend that, but if I want to  spend a lot, there are better samsung phones than iphone 14 as well. That plays a role in the drop of the sales.

Sometimes the media is too exaggerated when someone predicts a global recession, as if the world will end when they open an opinion, life is used to experiencing difficult things so whatever happens we should never panic, there is always a solution if difficulties come, just like in my country that was reported going bankrupt because the country can't pay the debt but it turns out that subsidies can still be used and everything is too much.

The fed doesn't necessarily need higher employment. They just want employee wages to not increase at a high rate. Of course if inflation outpaces wage growth, then the labor market might demand wage growth outside of the inflation rate, creating a bit of a loop.

They've taken the approach, rather, to aggressively hike interest rates which undoubtedly will trigger a recession. This will guarantee that wage growth won't outpace the inflation rate. It's only a matter of when. Given the U.S. tech industries have laid off tens of thousands of employees alone, I wouldn't say recession fears are speculative.

I guess we're very close to recession at this point. Moreover, I think it's already happening in some countries. I'm not an expert, but from what I have seen/read many countries announced economic growth of 0.something % and some forecasts were also with negative growth.

Yes, we will always see it in the spread of news that, like you said, exaggerates a problem that is happening in the world. But I think it depends on how we respond to it, we don't have to worry too much about what we hear, but we also can't be indifferent because maybe it will really happen and when we ignore it it will have a bad impact on ourselves. What we have to do is, keep preparing for when it really comes and don't panic too much. It will be very helpful for us in the future.

Some sort of speculation but these known experts in the said field will likely be true about it.
Some studies conducted that the global market situation can possibly become worse in the future. War, conflict of interest between countries, and climate change will badly affect the economic global system. Everything is changing and we can't assure that everything went well or it is something we all suffering. We can't just rely on the government for their action but as an individual, we also do our part as well.

They don't exaggerate, and they have grounds to come to that conclusion, most people just look at falling inflation and think that all the bad is over and good things are coming. If you regularly watch the news, you can see that major companies are still laying off thousands of employees every day, and in a recent Fed report, they said that the unemployment rate remains low. That means they are more likely to continue their hawkish policy to control inflation better, but high unemployment is likely to trigger a recession. I think a recession is inevitable, but the severity or lightness is what needs to be assessed.

I think that there is no need to lump all the events into one pile. Hurricanes and natural disasters like the earthquake in Turkey are random events in time of origin. They do not depend on the state of the world economy in any way, and can happen at any moment. It is clear that they have consequences that will be reflected in the economy, but I do not consider them significant compared to real estate crises or armed conflicts.
Yes, there are clearly difficult times in the world right now, but this is a necessary condition for the further development of economic relations.

What we need to realize today is that there is no single model for economic growth and the global economy has evolved a lot since the first industrial revolution started in the early 19th century. The only real impact on small businesses this year may be in the form of fluctuations in currency exchange rates, commodities and interest rates.

I think the policies of each government regarding stimulus spending, exports, debt and other factors that influence the GDP growth rate. Because if you look at global financial conditions it seems to be on a recovery path, and the market is starting to recover after the volatility seen in the last six months.

According to me, we are already in recession, not a prediction anymore, but just the beginning of the recession, not as severe as in 2007, so many people still don't realize it. I really don't believe the government reports, from what I see it makes me feel more clear. The unemployment rate in my country is increasing every day, many people can't afford to spend for living, purchasing power is decreasing markedly. But meanwhile, the government says the economy is showing positive changes.

The global recession may continue if there is no agreement to carry out a ceasefire for countries that are at war and focus more on fixing the problems that are happening in the world. All countries must unite and solve every problem faced by all countries. But the problem is, there are still countries that don't want to collaborate with other countries and think that the country can still survive. Like it or not, world leaders have yet to reach an agreement to resolve these problems. Maybe in public, they say they agree to solve the problem but after that, they seem to forget everything.

They are more preoccupied with the problems in their country because it is an urgent thing that they must do immediately. Maybe it should start with each country or people deal with the problems around them first.

War is causing crisis and recession for many countries, but many countries still benefit from war, so they don't want the war to end soon. Each country wants to have its own interests, so it is never possible for all of us to join hands to fight the recession. Just like someone else's death is our own chance, so there's no reason to save them.

Media just want hype, and for that they may go to any extreme. They exaggerate things sometimes but it could be that they are only scaring the masses because they are planning something. It's like they are spreading Fud if we are to talk about crypto. If we are used to these tactics then all we can do is just ignore them. Focus only on the positive things.

Recession is truly a thing but of course as long as it occurs for real. It's when the people lost their jobs and then maybe the price of the good are rising as well. It only becomes a speculation if it didn't occur yet but people are speculating about it that it will happen. There is a solution with it and I think one of it is through saving money and then having a side job with us.

If one has ever experienced a recession before, then it will never be an interesting occurrence one can pray for it reoccurrence because many things would have gone bad with the economy leaving it vulnerable for years before going back to normal, we all need to be mindful of how we operate our local, national and global economy to an optimum standard by tackling inflation first and finding means to end natural disasters that could serves a threat to world economy due to pandemics, almost all the giant economy of the world have been affected by last year inflation and recession was set at the beem, but we can start something new today by putting resources together against having such experience again because it's real and has many consequences if care is not taken.

From what am I seeing, we are already on it, we started it last year maybe and I am just hoping that we will not suffer too much just like what they are saying I am also afraid to what is happening to other company, lots of layoff this year, being in a person works in corpo l am afraid that our company might face a huge problem that will lead them to cutting people from their job.

From what I see these days, the fear as you call it is rescinding as inflation starts to come back now and the situation is somewhat normalizing after Putin decided to start the first war in Europe for over 60 years. However there is still a long way to go to mend it and any more chaos could trigger a collapse rather quickly. That's the thing about recessions and corrections, they often jump out of nowhere and usually quite dissimilar to previous ones. However the effects of inflation have yet to be fully realized in certain countries, because in the UK for example there are 2/3/5 year mortgage terms that need renewing at much higher rates when they expire, which could trigger a wave of house selling and push down property prices in future - having a wider knock on effect to the economy. There could be similar situations in other countries which will only play out in the next 2 years.

Economic recession was affected huge country in the world.The Ukraine war had affected even the small countries because of their oil supply.When the powerful Russia had their war on Ukraine,most of the countries had make their announcement of tax on Russia and some financial block to Russia.But the Ukrainian get some support throughout the world.But no country had started a war against Russia to fight in Russia behalf of Ukraine.The only reason is Russia is big Nation with all short of weapons.So most of the countries not ready to fight for the Ukraine,even after they had the soft corn towards the war.The war alone not the reason,the recession is also based on the climate change and flood.

World trade stability become one of the main reason why the professional called it that 2023 could become a dark one to get through with recession around the corner and you might now feels the recession has begun already with all those basic needs uprising ... no job space left even there a lot of mass layoffs.

Moreover ... there always a speculation after that , the exaggerated naration etc , beware just beware.

It is true that many economies around the world have been affected by COVID-19 pandemic, and some of them may be in recession now. However, it is important to note that situation can greatly vary from country to country and industry to industry. It is understandable to feel concerned about potential layoffs, but it is important to focus on what you can control, such as doing your best work and staying up-to-date on company developments and always prioritize your health and well being during these uncertain times.

While there is no doubt that the current global recovery remains slow and fragile, there is a general consensus among economists that we are now experiencing a period of more sustainable economic growth. Nonetheless, individual countries may experience a recession as part of their normal business cycle.

Yes, we may be in a recession, but not all are the same. I see many people say that they are facing many difficulties in life due to unfavorable work and insufficient income for daily expenses but there are also many people who say they are making more money than usual. That said, recessions or crises don't negatively affect all industries or everyone. If we know how to take advantage and seize opportunities, the failure of others is sometimes our own opportunity.

To start with, the global recession that is about to happen or has begun is not due to any war.
The global recession is avoidable but the government is doing little to avoid this menancr that is about to happen . This global station is likely because of inflation
The only solution the government has is to bring print more money and to be very honest this is not the best approach to avoiding the recession.
The recession might not hit the whole world but there is some part of the countries where it will hit them very well

Usually a seemingly slow recovery like the one in the current example won't experience a more profound fragility, as a faster recovery is also more likely to experience a more profound correction making it appear fragile. In fact a seemingly slow recovery could also lay the foundation for a more certain growth this year and I'm saying this more to Bitcoin as an example. Not to the business cycle or global economic growth.

I think the idea is that if recession happens everywhere, then it is a global issue, doesn't matter how much it impacted each nation. It would not be an issue if there were 30 nations with recession and 30 without recession and rest are just in the middle, then it is not a trouble and it is understandable but if ALL nations have recession, yet some have very little, it is still recession no matter how small it is.

Look at inflation numbers, there are nations with 5-10% and there are nations with 100%+, did we say that we didn't had inflation? Even though it varied from nation to nation, since all of us had it, we said it was a global thing, same will happen.

Yea I agree with this but developing countries will still suffer economically. Somehow developing countries that are dying in the hands of corrupt and incompetent leaders struggle really hard to move forward and learn from past experiences. The world around them learn and invent different ways to deal with issues while they are just content on how things are because they don't give a shit if the country gets better or not.
So if a global recession is to happen, I'm very certain that developing countries especially developing countries in Africa will feel it the most because they're too dependant on the developed countries.

That's why the war hasn't ended yet because there are countries that have benefited from it, so they are still trying to get as much benefit as possible. But if every country's leader realizes that war does not bring good to all parties, they should stop the war and try to communicate with each other to discuss the real problem in the world. Besides that, the countries can not feel the benefits because the war has given victims to each side. So it needs awareness from all the country's leaders but maybe it won't happen shortly because they all have to lower their egos to reach that agreement.

I am not sure Op why are you asking this question now dear if you still think a global recession is real or speculation then I am not sure how you are justifying the current inflation all over the world. Dear global recession is ongoing the current economic crisis in each country is due to the global recession but it is going to be worse afterward. The whole financial ecosystem is stuck now and in the long run views it going to collapse and then maybe we need some new type of economic cycle without interest. The current situation is messed up as you better know and all this is due to the Intrest system and it's the only reason for the future collapse, this system is unfair to the Lower and Middle-class community.

Long Story, in Short, a new economic model is going to be established sooner or later and I am hoping for Bitcoin as the priority lets see what happens next to it.

We need to judge each country according to their respective circumstances, a country which is still developing but which has a low amount of debt and it is self-sufficient when it comes to food and other key sectors will probably do fine, however many developed countries could do terribly during a recession as they are the most heavily indebted countries around the world and the room they have to maneuver is very tight.

Yes, I agree, many governments looks frightened they won't be able to control the people anymore. After Covid limitations and lockdowns people are losing patience and bad news may fuel riots etc. So they're trying to sweep it under the rug, hoping the situation will improve next Q or next year.

Recession does happen but sometimes the media makes too much noise and if we follow it it will cause panic, the media always overreacts in reporting things and this is because they want to attract people's interest and in the end get profit from advertising, as humans who have experienced difficulties of course crises and recessions are normal thing and don't make us too afraid.

The other issue here is that it's fairly normal for a government to borrow money or receive financial aid during a recession and the higher the corruption, the more debt that could end up being taken by the whole country to be used for and by just a few people in control there (if they're corrupt enough and there's little able to make them leave - especially if it isn't publicised).


I don't think this is really a problem unless the recession is huge or lasts a long time. The sector a recession hits and the epicentre of where it affects feels it for decades to come, everyone else doesn't really. If a recession hits and GDP falls, the same amount of people are often still looking to produce things and within about 3 years, the economy can adapt to the new climate of what's needed and wanted in an area and gaps can be completely filled by then (companies spring up during recessions from people hoarding cash because the gamble is normally considered worth it - especially when most other things are collapsing in value).

A lot of people also contribute to the efforts of regrowing the economy by completely giving up or changing course from what they were doing (which is likely easier in a wealth country) - many people (especially young) thinking of joining the workforce or who have been recently employed and sacked (/fired) because of the recession may turn to education instead and improve their skills ready for when the market picks up - a lot of people in the 2008 crash getting jobs have seen their wages stagnate because so many applied for jobs during a recession (in the US, this hasn't happened as much in Europe).

A lot of developed countries may be overleveraged but they're normally all part of the same house of cards (and have to stop each other from collapsing as most economies are unable to survive without both imports and exports).

Today we hear a lot of scary news about the global recession.  I don't think it's fake.  If we look at it in micro form, there are many types of industries that have an impact due to the current world economic uncertainty.  It may not be as complete as the recession in 2008 but I have seen a lot of people who are worried about the state of their economy right now.

If that's true, then you can hedge against Apple and the S&P 500 at the same time:

- When Apple goes down (significantly), sell your S&P 500 stock if everyone is arguing about a recession at the time.

- Then, when Apple goes up again, buy back your S&P 500 stocks

Easy way to take advantage of people's inability to agree on whether there is a recession or not by gauging the stocks of companies producing stuff that everybody wants to buy. :)

disclaimer not investment advice

Most governments are corrupt, and that means we do not get to see the benefits of our taxes in almost any nation in the world and recession will of course be an issue when corruption is higher. They will just print double what they need, half of it to ALL people and half of it to their rich friends, or even themselves.

This is why recession is so much worse than inflation in my mind, during inflation you need to pay more for the workers, if you do not, then someone else will be, but during recession everyone cuts spending, which means you need to cut even more than the corrupt ones since they will try to do illegal but bribed ways of making more than you.

Nothing new is happening, there have always been wars, just like natural disasters have occurred throughout the history of mankind. After periods of growth, there were always crises, sometimes more severe, sometimes less, but that was always the case.

It is hardly possible to prevent this, the only thing that can be done is to try to cope with the consequences as quickly as possible, but as we see it is not always easy to do. When everything is getting better, no one wants to think about the bad, problems are most often dealt with after they happen.

Truly yes human society have always been faced with one kind of hardship and challenges but what makes us the highest level of creation is our ability to benefit from our environment by using it in our own favour and safe the human creation from further disater and this leads me to your other suggestion below.


So here I want to blame the government for not doing what is right by taking proactive measure to safe human society from further worse occurrences or to quickly move out to safe when there are issues of human disasters. This takes us to issue of planning. Even in good times, the government should be able to plan for things to happen in the future having taken clue from the past. There are different seasons in a year and they must repeat themselves with all the challenges with them and that is the point to say government must plan , provide, guide and lead the people.

Global recession did occur and I felt very much, even when there was a pandemic 2 years ago it made many people lose my job, and I haven't worked for almost a year and only rely on income from rental houses in tourist attractions, I market several houses for daily rental and still Can get the distribution of results with homeowners or villas. Hopefully in 2023 it can improve and the economy is normal, and of course we hope the condition of the Crypto market skyrocketed again like 2021.

if you will look at the big picture, you will get overwhelmed by the situation. so better try to address this situation on a personal level. you can only do so much for others. but you can always improve your way of living by minding your own business. see what you have that you can use to improve your daily living, declutter and sell things that you think you don't need anymore, tend your own garden, live simply, avoid debts and so on. you won't feel agitated by the situation if you are ready for this.

there has been many job lays off and inflation is rampant, i'm sure fulfilling basic needs is harder than ever in certain country, so I guess the effect is already going but there are some countries that didn't get affected at all.
but still, i'd say never forget to make yourself safe by increasing your income, always seek way for investments and even additional income because you'd never know what the future holds.
moreover, it's always better becoming richer through increasing income than just stuck in the same place forever. even if the so called global recession didn't affect you at all, at least you got more money.

Global recession is real. We can experience it in our daily life. Another thing is the billionaires suggestions. Jeff Bezos who is business man and the revenue is out of his consumers. He itself had suggested not to buy products if there is no need for it. Buy only the things that are highly essential and he had made it in connection with the global economic situation. Based on several such incidents global recession is true.

Entirely possible just from natural events such as a volcano or anything that can spread around the globe.  Just a dust cloud from a volcano can interfere with weather across the world and the ability to produce in multiple countries.  This will restrict growth and place the emphasis on means of payment for commodities in demand.  
  Add in the risk of politics, war and human error and recession is entirely possible.  The bias is towards world growth because we have population growth and to feed those people more is required every day in productive capacity and efficiency while doing so.
  If we fail to do better people will grow poorer no doubt about it, some think this is inevitable but even the cynic in me would point at the vast amounts we throw away and waste; its completely obvious all economies all people can do better then they are now hence growth.

I think that wasn't what was meant when talking about recession. The fact is that we had a whole lot of situation with the inflation and in order to save ourselves from that, we increased the interest rates. When you increase the interest rates that means big companies do not grow, and they just put their money in the bank instead, which means they won't hire more people and they may even fire a ton of people to use that money for savings instead.

That is why these high interest rates we have all over the world could cause recession. You are right that natural disasters and political wrong moves could cause that too, but this one is more about the higher interest rates.

In my opinion, the likelihood of a global recession is not very high at the moment. 

A recession is most likely inevitable in the countries of the European Union, as well as in the UK.  At the same time, the US economy most likely will not experience a recession. 

American companies are quite competitive (unlike European companies).  In addition, the Fed's rate hike and other measures aimed at reducing inflation have shown their effectiveness. 

Currently, there is active talk in American financial circles about the need to start measures to reduce the Fed's rate in the near future. 

At the same time, such a reduction in the discount rate (refinancing rate) will be carried out gradually (so as not to worsen the economic situation in the country).

Our adaptability can only go so far against the raging tides of the economy. That much can be said when we look back on the worst economic crises we have faced like the Great Depression and the 2008 recession. Yeah, humanity persisted, but at the expense of multiple millions of people dying of starvation, loss of hope, even lack of affordable medical assistance since everything was practically golden during those times or whatever those issues brought along. I get what you are saying but romanticizing resilience can only go so far.

I hate being cynical regarding topics like these but it comes with seeing the reality of things. We have to avoid recessions as much as possible, we can't romanticize the suffering of the many, especially if it's not our stomachs that are rumbling of hunger and it's not us dying of preventable diseases because of lack of money.

Natural calamities are big challenges but what can you do against natural disasters such as Earthquakes/ Hurricanes? Earthquakes are absolutely unavoidable because they happen due to movement of tectonic plates, humans do not have any impact on those, they aren't doing any such activity which is impacting this movement. Also if you see Earthquakes have been a major part of Earth's Geology since it's start, so obviously it's not that we are doing something that is increasing it. At best we can build structures which can be Earthquake resitant but despite that there is a huge chance not everything will be Earthquake resistant. So recessions due to such reasons are reallly hard to resolve.

While people can still buy basic commodities at affordable prices, I'm sure we can still survive. If we talk about the diplomatic relations of a country, if there is even one conflict then we will be worried and afraid that it will lead to a deteriorating economic situation. But if we look at the current reality as long as people can still meet their basic needs, we don't need to worry too much. Yes, even though in some countries they are still facing hunger crises, natural disasters such as earthquakes, you can say that this is not a global crisis yet.

Really, you think that the war between Russia and Ukraine is what is causing the fear of recession? You have to stop consuming mainstream media and wake up to reality my friend. Money printing, or "Quantitative Easing" is one of the many symptoms of what the world is yet to face and the coming recession stems all the way back to the abolishing of the Gold standard during the Nixon era in the 70's which debased the reserve currency. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 without bailouts is what should have been the result of all of the war funding and garbage actions that the US and its servants/accomplice foreign powers made since the abolishing of the gold standard. This global recession is not as a result of COVID or the war with Ukraine. It spans much longer than that, and what's coming will be comparable to the fall of the Roman empire who faced similar consequences for debasing their currency.

After all, recession or economic crisis is a cycle that repeats itself, it is part of the world economy and will never go away. Even if we don't abolish the gold standard, there will be recessions in different ways. But regardless of the reason for the recession or crisis, the world economy will always recover after that, and that is how the world economy works.
Sometimes a recession is not necessarily a bad thing, there will be many people going bankrupt and difficult, but also, many people will change their lives from the recession.

Maybe a little? I have never heard of this before, so I can't say that I have consumed media so much, because if I did, I would have heard this, it's the first time I am hearing this thesis. However, I would say that it is not the main reason, but I can't say it's 100% irrelevant neither, it's definitely has something to do with recession.

Because many nations sent billions of dollars worth of aid, which means that it cost some inflation, which means the rates went up, which means that less people grew, and more people invested and that could cause recession. It's basically lack of growth and when the money goes to cover for pandemic and oil and Ukraine, then it's possible to have recession. Just my thoughts though, maybe I could be wrong.

It's all baloney. Not the event itself, or the money sent in "aid", that's definitely not baloney. I mean that the whole event, its causes, its vested interests is all preposterous. It is definitely not a major factor as to why a recession is coming. It is minor at best.


It is a part of the fiat money system, the system that involves printing more money than the assets that backs the money that is being printed. Recession would not exist if every dollar was backed by an asset as was in the system of the Gold Standard. This paired with responsible/viable borrowing would mean that things would grow and evolve at a natural pace. Instead, money is printed and lent via a broken "fractional reserve" system ($10 lent per $1 deposited into the bank) and the debt ratios are thrown way out of whack...causing things to grow unnaturally, unnatural things to be financed, greed driven evolution, etc.

Mo' unbased money, Mo' problems.

The whole thing is boiled down to climate change. And the world have not really gotten the solution to tackle the issue of those disasterious elements of flooding, earthquake, hurricane and likes. And Governments in various countries can take a step to stop those disasters. World recession will definitely come if the various leaders in the world will not take a drastic steps to cube the situation. Like what happened in Turkey is a painful scenario where people died while at home, on the street. In Nigeria flood displaced a lot of people and render people homeless.

We pray that our leaders should do something to stop these disasters. The ordinary citizens are the ones that are always at the receiving end.

Recession or no recession we all need to make sure that we keep loving and paying our bills. Global recession should not bother us because we have enter it before end we came out successfully and now if it comes to us again then we have no option than to bear our loses and continue doing what will put food in our table and pay our bills.

If the solution is ultimately to keep working so you can eat and pay life's important bills, that means that everyone just needs to think about a better job and income without plunging their minds into more recession. Because there won't be a better solution if everyone starts to lack money in their life, so try to keep working expecting a better income so as not to be affected by a recession or anything that can make everyone unable to eat and also grow through their business.

You are right, we will not get away from our apartment bills, utility bills, etc. therefore, many, including me, have a job that has a constant stable income. I like that it gives me confidence in the future during the recession that is going on now. Nevertheless, I firmly believe that the future belongs to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. They will lead us to a better life, recessions and crises will end. And a new crypto spring will come!