The fear of global recession is real or just a speculation?

[NotATether]

There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

I think it is real. Haven't you seen what happened to the iphone sales?

Apple sales in biggest fall since 2019

Apple sales dropped at the end of 2022 as shoppers squeezed by the rising cost of living cut back their purchases.

Sales at the iPhone giant fell 5% in the three months to December compared with the same period in 2021.

It was the biggest decline since 2019 and worse than expected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64506940

If that's not recession, then I don't know what is. Iphone is simply the best electronic device that everyone wants to buy but somehow people can't do that. That's because they have to pay for their rent, food, water etc and there isn't any money left to buy an iphone.

If that's true, then you can hedge against Apple and the S&P 500 at the same time:

- When Apple goes down (significantly), sell your S&P 500 stock if everyone is arguing about a recession at the time.

- Then, when Apple goes up again, buy back your S&P 500 stocks

Easy way to take advantage of people's inability to agree on whether there is a recession or not by gauging the stocks of companies producing stuff that everybody wants to buy.

disclaimer not investment advice

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[tygeade]

Yea I agree with this but developing countries will still suffer economically. Somehow developing countries that are dying in the hands of corrupt and incompetent leaders struggle really hard to move forward and learn from past experiences. The world around them learn and invent different ways to deal with issues while they are just content on how things are because they don't give a shit if the country gets better or not.

The other issue here is that it's fairly normal for a government to borrow money or receive financial aid during a recession and the higher the corruption, the more debt that could end up being taken by the whole country to be used for and by just a few people in control there (if they're corrupt enough and there's little able to make them leave - especially if it isn't publicised).

Most governments are corrupt, and that means we do not get to see the benefits of our taxes in almost any nation in the world and recession will of course be an issue when corruption is higher. They will just print double what they need, half of it to ALL people and half of it to their rich friends, or even themselves.

This is why recession is so much worse than inflation in my mind, during inflation you need to pay more for the workers, if you do not, then someone else will be, but during recession everyone cuts spending, which means you need to cut even more than the corrupt ones since they will try to do illegal but bribed ways of making more than you.

[Inwestour]

There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

Nothing new is happening, there have always been wars, just like natural disasters have occurred throughout the history of mankind. After periods of growth, there were always crises, sometimes more severe, sometimes less, but that was always the case.

It is hardly possible to prevent this, the only thing that can be done is to try to cope with the consequences as quickly as possible, but as we see it is not always easy to do. When everything is getting better, no one wants to think about the bad, problems are most often dealt with after they happen.

[palle11]

Nothing new is happening, there have always been wars, just like natural disasters have occurred throughout the history of mankind. After periods of growth, there were always crises, sometimes more severe, sometimes less, but that was always the case.

Truly yes human society have always been faced with one kind of hardship and challenges but what makes us the highest level of creation is our ability to benefit from our environment by using it in our own favour and safe the human creation from further disater and this leads me to your other suggestion below.

It is hardly possible to prevent this, the only thing that can be done is to try to cope with the consequences as quickly as possible, but as we see it is not always easy to do. When everything is getting better, no one wants to think about the bad, problems are most often dealt with after they happen.

So here I want to blame the government for not doing what is right by taking proactive measure to safe human society from further worse occurrences or to quickly move out to safe when there are issues of human disasters. This takes us to issue of planning. Even in good times, the government should be able to plan for things to happen in the future having taken clue from the past. There are different seasons in a year and they must repeat themselves with all the challenges with them and that is the point to say government must plan , provide, guide and lead the people.

[Wong Gendheng]

Global recession did occur and I felt very much, even when there was a pandemic 2 years ago it made many people lose my job, and I haven't worked for almost a year and only rely on income from rental houses in tourist attractions, I market several houses for daily rental and still Can get the distribution of results with homeowners or villas. Hopefully in 2023 it can improve and the economy is normal, and of course we hope the condition of the Crypto market skyrocketed again like 2021.

[AmoreJaz]

There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

Nothing new is happening, there have always been wars, just like natural disasters have occurred throughout the history of mankind. After periods of growth, there were always crises, sometimes more severe, sometimes less, but that was always the case.

It is hardly possible to prevent this, the only thing that can be done is to try to cope with the consequences as quickly as possible, but as we see it is not always easy to do. When everything is getting better, no one wants to think about the bad, problems are most often dealt with after they happen.

if you will look at the big picture, you will get overwhelmed by the situation. so better try to address this situation on a personal level. you can only do so much for others. but you can always improve your way of living by minding your own business. see what you have that you can use to improve your daily living, declutter and sell things that you think you don't need anymore, tend your own garden, live simply, avoid debts and so on. you won't feel agitated by the situation if you are ready for this.

[shinratensei_]

there has been many job lays off and inflation is rampant, i'm sure fulfilling basic needs is harder than ever in certain country, so I guess the effect is already going but there are some countries that didn't get affected at all.
but still, i'd say never forget to make yourself safe by increasing your income, always seek way for investments and even additional income because you'd never know what the future holds.
moreover, it's always better becoming richer through increasing income than just stuck in the same place forever. even if the so called global recession didn't affect you at all, at least you got more money.

[KennyR]

Global recession is real. We can experience it in our daily life. Another thing is the billionaires suggestions. Jeff Bezos who is business man and the revenue is out of his consumers. He itself had suggested not to buy products if there is no need for it. Buy only the things that are highly essential and he had made it in connection with the global economic situation. Based on several such incidents global recession is true.

[STT]

Entirely possible just from natural events such as a volcano or anything that can spread around the globe.  Just a dust cloud from a volcano can interfere with weather across the world and the ability to produce in multiple countries.  This will restrict growth and place the emphasis on means of payment for commodities in demand.  
  Add in the risk of politics, war and human error and recession is entirely possible.  The bias is towards world growth because we have population growth and to feed those people more is required every day in productive capacity and efficiency while doing so.
  If we fail to do better people will grow poorer no doubt about it, some think this is inevitable but even the cynic in me would point at the vast amounts we throw away and waste; its completely obvious all economies all people can do better then they are now hence growth.

[fullhdpixel]

Entirely possible just from natural events such as a volcano or anything that can spread around the globe.  Just a dust cloud from a volcano can interfere with weather across the world and the ability to produce in multiple countries.  This will restrict growth and place the emphasis on means of payment for commodities in demand.  
  Add in the risk of politics, war and human error and recession is entirely possible.  The bias is towards world growth because we have population growth and to feed those people more is required every day in productive capacity and efficiency while doing so.
  If we fail to do better people will grow poorer no doubt about it, some think this is inevitable but even the cynic in me would point at the vast amounts we throw away and waste; its completely obvious all economies all people can do better then they are now hence growth.

I think that wasn't what was meant when talking about recession. The fact is that we had a whole lot of situation with the inflation and in order to save ourselves from that, we increased the interest rates. When you increase the interest rates that means big companies do not grow, and they just put their money in the bank instead, which means they won't hire more people and they may even fire a ton of people to use that money for savings instead.

That is why these high interest rates we have all over the world could cause recession. You are right that natural disasters and political wrong moves could cause that too, but this one is more about the higher interest rates.

[Smartprofit]

In my opinion, the likelihood of a global recession is not very high at the moment. 

A recession is most likely inevitable in the countries of the European Union, as well as in the UK.  At the same time, the US economy most likely will not experience a recession. 

American companies are quite competitive (unlike European companies).  In addition, the Fed's rate hike and other measures aimed at reducing inflation have shown their effectiveness. 

Currently, there is active talk in American financial circles about the need to start measures to reduce the Fed's rate in the near future. 

At the same time, such a reduction in the discount rate (refinancing rate) will be carried out gradually (so as not to worsen the economic situation in the country).

[Casdinyard]

As time passes and we become better informed on challenges and obstacles we face. I believe we will naturally acclimate and adapt to the changing world and its shifting circumstances. Our survival and prosperity will depend upon us doing so. The only question is what form our adaptation will take. I think there are always people doing crazy things we would not expect, taking things to extremes that are both shocking and surprising. When it comes to topics like climate change and global recessions, I think it will be no different. There will be many who will address these topics in ways we would not expect, using any loophole or advantage they can find to do things that are unexpected.

Our culture and society will adapt and shift to meet these challenges head on. To some degree, I think these changes are already manifesting. They say the best way to predict the future is to invent it. And undoubtedly there are many who are taking this to heart.

Our adaptability can only go so far against the raging tides of the economy. That much can be said when we look back on the worst economic crises we have faced like the Great Depression and the 2008 recession. Yeah, humanity persisted, but at the expense of multiple millions of people dying of starvation, loss of hope, even lack of affordable medical assistance since everything was practically golden during those times or whatever those issues brought along. I get what you are saying but romanticizing resilience can only go so far.

I hate being cynical regarding topics like these but it comes with seeing the reality of things. We have to avoid recessions as much as possible, we can't romanticize the suffering of the many, especially if it's not our stomachs that are rumbling of hunger and it's not us dying of preventable diseases because of lack of money.

[teosanru]

There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

Natural calamities are big challenges but what can you do against natural disasters such as Earthquakes/ Hurricanes? Earthquakes are absolutely unavoidable because they happen due to movement of tectonic plates, humans do not have any impact on those, they aren't doing any such activity which is impacting this movement. Also if you see Earthquakes have been a major part of Earth's Geology since it's start, so obviously it's not that we are doing something that is increasing it. At best we can build structures which can be Earthquake resitant but despite that there is a huge chance not everything will be Earthquake resistant. So recessions due to such reasons are reallly hard to resolve.

[fuer44]

As time passes and we become better informed on challenges and obstacles we face. I believe we will naturally acclimate and adapt to the changing world and its shifting circumstances. Our survival and prosperity will depend upon us doing so. The only question is what form our adaptation will take. I think there are always people doing crazy things we would not expect, taking things to extremes that are both shocking and surprising. When it comes to topics like climate change and global recessions, I think it will be no different. There will be many who will address these topics in ways we would not expect, using any loophole or advantage they can find to do things that are unexpected.

Our culture and society will adapt and shift to meet these challenges head on. To some degree, I think these changes are already manifesting. They say the best way to predict the future is to invent it. And undoubtedly there are many who are taking this to heart.

Our adaptability can only go so far against the raging tides of the economy. That much can be said when we look back on the worst economic crises we have faced like the Great Depression and the 2008 recession. Yeah, humanity persisted, but at the expense of multiple millions of people dying of starvation, loss of hope, even lack of affordable medical assistance since everything was practically golden during those times or whatever those issues brought along. I get what you are saying but romanticizing resilience can only go so far.

I hate being cynical regarding topics like these but it comes with seeing the reality of things. We have to avoid recessions as much as possible, we can't romanticize the suffering of the many, especially if it's not our stomachs that are rumbling of hunger and it's not us dying of preventable diseases because of lack of money.

While people can still buy basic commodities at affordable prices, I'm sure we can still survive. If we talk about the diplomatic relations of a country, if there is even one conflict then we will be worried and afraid that it will lead to a deteriorating economic situation. But if we look at the current reality as long as people can still meet their basic needs, we don't need to worry too much. Yes, even though in some countries they are still facing hunger crises, natural disasters such as earthquakes, you can say that this is not a global crisis yet.

[BenCodie]

There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

Really, you think that the war between Russia and Ukraine is what is causing the fear of recession? You have to stop consuming mainstream media and wake up to reality my friend. Money printing, or "Quantitative Easing" is one of the many symptoms of what the world is yet to face and the coming recession stems all the way back to the abolishing of the Gold standard during the Nixon era in the 70's which debased the reserve currency. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 without bailouts is what should have been the result of all of the war funding and garbage actions that the US and its servants/accomplice foreign powers made since the abolishing of the gold standard. This global recession is not as a result of COVID or the war with Ukraine. It spans much longer than that, and what's coming will be comparable to the fall of the Roman empire who faced similar consequences for debasing their currency.

[Marvell1]

There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

Really, you think that the war between Russia and Ukraine is what is causing the fear of recession? You have to stop consuming mainstream media and wake up to reality my friend. Money printing, or "Quantitative Easing" is one of the many symptoms of what the world is yet to face and the coming recession stems all the way back to the abolishing of the Gold standard during the Nixon era in the 70's which debased the reserve currency. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 without bailouts is what should have been the result of all of the war funding and garbage actions that the US and its servants/accomplice foreign powers made since the abolishing of the gold standard. This global recession is not as a result of COVID or the war with Ukraine. It spans much longer than that, and what's coming will be comparable to the fall of the Roman empire who faced similar consequences for debasing their currency.

After all, recession or economic crisis is a cycle that repeats itself, it is part of the world economy and will never go away. Even if we don't abolish the gold standard, there will be recessions in different ways. But regardless of the reason for the recession or crisis, the world economy will always recover after that, and that is how the world economy works.
Sometimes a recession is not necessarily a bad thing, there will be many people going bankrupt and difficult, but also, many people will change their lives from the recession.

[justdimin]

There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

Really, you think that the war between Russia and Ukraine is what is causing the fear of recession? You have to stop consuming mainstream media and wake up to reality my friend. Money printing, or "Quantitative Easing" is one of the many symptoms of what the world is yet to face and the coming recession stems all the way back to the abolishing of the Gold standard during the Nixon era in the 70's which debased the reserve currency. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 without bailouts is what should have been the result of all of the war funding and garbage actions that the US and its servants/accomplice foreign powers made since the abolishing of the gold standard. This global recession is not as a result of COVID or the war with Ukraine. It spans much longer than that, and what's coming will be comparable to the fall of the Roman empire who faced similar consequences for debasing their currency.

Maybe a little? I have never heard of this before, so I can't say that I have consumed media so much, because if I did, I would have heard this, it's the first time I am hearing this thesis. However, I would say that it is not the main reason, but I can't say it's 100% irrelevant neither, it's definitely has something to do with recession.

Because many nations sent billions of dollars worth of aid, which means that it cost some inflation, which means the rates went up, which means that less people grew, and more people invested and that could cause recession. It's basically lack of growth and when the money goes to cover for pandemic and oil and Ukraine, then it's possible to have recession. Just my thoughts though, maybe I could be wrong.

[BenCodie]

There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

Really, you think that the war between Russia and Ukraine is what is causing the fear of recession? You have to stop consuming mainstream media and wake up to reality my friend. Money printing, or "Quantitative Easing" is one of the many symptoms of what the world is yet to face and the coming recession stems all the way back to the abolishing of the Gold standard during the Nixon era in the 70's which debased the reserve currency. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 without bailouts is what should have been the result of all of the war funding and garbage actions that the US and its servants/accomplice foreign powers made since the abolishing of the gold standard. This global recession is not as a result of COVID or the war with Ukraine. It spans much longer than that, and what's coming will be comparable to the fall of the Roman empire who faced similar consequences for debasing their currency.

Maybe a little? I have never heard of this before, so I can't say that I have consumed media so much, because if I did, I would have heard this, it's the first time I am hearing this thesis. However, I would say that it is not the main reason, but I can't say it's 100% irrelevant neither, it's definitely has something to do with recession.

Because many nations sent billions of dollars worth of aid, which means that it cost some inflation, which means the rates went up, which means that less people grew, and more people invested and that could cause recession. It's basically lack of growth and when the money goes to cover for pandemic and oil and Ukraine, then it's possible to have recession. Just my thoughts though, maybe I could be wrong.

It's all baloney. Not the event itself, or the money sent in "aid", that's definitely not baloney. I mean that the whole event, its causes, its vested interests is all preposterous. It is definitely not a major factor as to why a recession is coming. It is minor at best.

There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

Really, you think that the war between Russia and Ukraine is what is causing the fear of recession? You have to stop consuming mainstream media and wake up to reality my friend. Money printing, or "Quantitative Easing" is one of the many symptoms of what the world is yet to face and the coming recession stems all the way back to the abolishing of the Gold standard during the Nixon era in the 70's which debased the reserve currency. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 without bailouts is what should have been the result of all of the war funding and garbage actions that the US and its servants/accomplice foreign powers made since the abolishing of the gold standard. This global recession is not as a result of COVID or the war with Ukraine. It spans much longer than that, and what's coming will be comparable to the fall of the Roman empire who faced similar consequences for debasing their currency.

After all, recession or economic crisis is a cycle that repeats itself, it is part of the world economy and will never go away. Even if we don't abolish the gold standard, there will be recessions in different ways. But regardless of the reason for the recession or crisis, the world economy will always recover after that, and that is how the world economy works.
Sometimes a recession is not necessarily a bad thing, there will be many people going bankrupt and difficult, but also, many people will change their lives from the recession.

It is a part of the fiat money system, the system that involves printing more money than the assets that backs the money that is being printed. Recession would not exist if every dollar was backed by an asset as was in the system of the Gold Standard. This paired with responsible/viable borrowing would mean that things would grow and evolve at a natural pace. Instead, money is printed and lent via a broken "fractional reserve" system ($10 lent per $1 deposited into the bank) and the debt ratios are thrown way out of whack...causing things to grow unnaturally, unnatural things to be financed, greed driven evolution, etc.

Mo' unbased money, Mo' problems.

[Mate2237]

The whole thing is boiled down to climate change. And the world have not really gotten the solution to tackle the issue of those disasterious elements of flooding, earthquake, hurricane and likes. And Governments in various countries can take a step to stop those disasters. World recession will definitely come if the various leaders in the world will not take a drastic steps to cube the situation. Like what happened in Turkey is a painful scenario where people died while at home, on the street. In Nigeria flood displaced a lot of people and render people homeless.

We pray that our leaders should do something to stop these disasters. The ordinary citizens are the ones that are always at the receiving end.

[Desmong]

There is much discussion in both the print and electronic media regarding the probability of global recession as a consequence of ongoing war in Ukraine, but I think unlikely to happen any time soon, even if it does, it is expected to be less severe than recession in 2007, as global GDP is still growing albeit at a slow rate. The real challenges for policy makers are growing debt, climate change and increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquake, hurricanes and floods, which pose significant risk to world economy. These need to be addressed by global community urgently, in order to ensure a stable and thriving economy.

Recession or no recession we all need to make sure that we keep loving and paying our bills. Global recession should not bother us because we have enter it before end we came out successfully and now if it comes to us again then we have no option than to bear our loses and continue doing what will put food in our table and pay our bills.