Bitcoin Forum

I was reading on some of the reasons why the USD is king in the foreign exchange market and some of them are;
It is the most traded currency,
It is the foreign reserve currency of many countries etc...

My question is that with the way many powerful and influential countries are now dumping the USD, will it cause a significant reduced trading volume that will make the dollar no longer to be the most relevant currency in the foreign exchange market?

In the last 10 years, US dollars in foreign reserves account for slightly more than 70% of the total foreign reserves, but down to 60% as of this year. In more decades ago, US dollar did not account for up to 60%.  The second reserve currency is Euro which accounts for 20%.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/07/03/SD4Bq.png
https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/why-the-dollar-remains-the-worlds-reserve-currency/

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/07/03/SD9FG.png
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11707

Among the traded currencies, US dollars accounts for over 80%: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencies

I do not think there is any currency that will compete with US dollars because it has huge margin if compared to others. The second is Euro and I do not think Euro can take the place of United States dollars with what are going in the world.

I would also agree with you, because aside the Euros the other currency that many think will overthrown the dollars is maybe the Chinese Yen. But even with the current crises facing dollars it still has the liquidity. And countries wouldn’t want to hold or reserve another central currency like the yen in exchange for dollars because the economic and worries that they fear with dollars is there with the yen too.

My observation is people will actually look to more decentralized currency, and a currency that can actually hedge against inflation so that there won’t be much of worry during economic downturn. So it could be the Gold because it is a great store of value and its limited supply is another advantage. Over few years now central banks are actually holding more Gold.

I only see it as an alternative for the main time and it can not be a central currency already or reserve

It doesn't happen overnight mate, but I have belief that with time the USD will lose its Kingship as more nations keep adopting other alternative currencies when holding trades between themselves. When you really look at the emergence of regional economies like BRICS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS) which keep getting more popular each passing year, you kind of notice a loss of confidence in the US dollar and other forms of currencies from the West and this will be one of those game changing moments in the years to come.

The world always changes so does world economics. The USA. can lose its first powerful position and leading role so when the nation loses its leading position, its fiat currency will lose its value in the world economics too.

Gold is no longer be considered as a world standard and gold standard is only a past story. I see big challenge from China for the USA. from science, economics to politics but the USA. has better social and political systems which give me a faith that they will be a better nation than China. China will still be a big competitor for the USA.

I think the US. dollar will not lose its leading position too soon.

You said "many powerful and influential countries are now dumping the USD", where is the source?

No one knows — but one thing's for sure, it will take a while for it to happen if it were to happen. And while it will likely be a major country(or BRICS) that would replace it(if it actually happens), let's just hope that it's BTC lol.

The  U.S. dollar remains the most actively traded currency, and its dominance has been relatively stable over the past decade.

While there has been a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign-exchange reserves, this doesn't necessarily indicate a significant reduction in trading volume.

If there will be any major changes, it's likely going to be gradual and influenced by multiple factors.

It would be good if countries start to adopt bitcoin and be using it as a foreign reserve. But can this be possible? See how gold is, for decades or centuries, dollar still dominate the foreign reserves. Another thing is that you will see gold excluded and be separated because it is a commodity, categorizing only fiat. With how the government are doing, they are not ready to adopt bitcoin like gold yet, but this may chance overtime. As to what I think, the dollar will stay there for decades if not centuries

Yup, and that's what will actually happen if most of them have already dumped it and they're transitioning into using another currency that they think is better than USD at these times. This is also one of the worries of the US government for which they're making a lot of things relatively to their economic policies and as well as being too active with foreign allies and putting more money into it things that shouldn't be funded by them. I guess this is where it's really going because no one's gonna be on top forever.

I hope that The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking (https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861) will replace both Gold standard and USD standard.

The USA maintains their position very well since World War II but the world will continue to change and they can lost that position. The rising growth of China in both economic, geopolitics and their aggressive policies globally are dangerous for the USA position and their fiat currency US dollar.

Will we have a new fiat currency standard without another World War? Hopefully no such World War in future but the US dollar will lose that standard position if something very big happens over the world.

Not really cauwe we knew that US still the number 1 country when it comes to currency. Yes there may be significant downfall on their side, but knowing them? I doubt it. Id imagine that they could do anything that could boost their currency's value. This may be a long path but they will eventually bounce back everytime. You think China or Russia could surpass them? Maybe at somepoint but we also can see how competitive the USD it is.

No just because other countries are dumping USD doesn't mean it'll stop been the king of foreign exchange. The numbers of country still reserving USD as their country's reserved currency is more than those that are dumping it. The United States is still the most powerful country in the world so they'll still stay at the top of all foreign exchange. If any country's currency wants to overtake them, they have to takeover world power from the united state.

For another currency to overtake USD, it has to be the most traded currency and many countries aren't comfortable trading other currency apart from USD as they believe in the US economy more than other countries economy that are been said to be the next reserved currency.

That's what we all want for Bitcoin but in reality it's going to be much more difficult because of a couple of reasons

- It will take a while for people to move from status-quo currencies to innovative ones like Bitcoin and cryptos. A lot of people don't like change. They're even afraid of change itself.

- It would take more time before Bitcoin can get the massive adoption we all desire and we are on the right track. We have to abstract complexity of the technology and significantly reduce transaction fees and finality to the barest minimum. A large percentage of people are unbanked, they need to be introduced to something more better.

Countries in BRICS might be growing their GPT (China being most important player). But they have long way to catch up. And there are most likely going to be tensions between those countries as that project would need to have full transparency on every level between participants when infra is designed for it.

And those countries aren't really famous for their transparency, neither they could provide stabile enough infrastructure for it IMHO.

It doesn't have to be "every" person, as long as we have enough movement behind us, that's enough. I know that fiat will stay as the strongest there is nothing wrong with that but that doesn't mean that it has to be the only one.

I believe that just like how we moved away from paying with cash and started paying with credit cards and such, and now moving towards NFC a lot as well, that means NFC could be used for crypto as well, and that means we could pay people with crypto very easily thanks to innovative technologies. I am not saying it will be simple, but it will certainly be not that hard as well. This is why it's important to keep believing in bitcoin, we may do well or we may not do that well at all, we just need to keep focusing on it.

It's just a matter of time until that happens. Even Trump said that before and he's aware of the position of the US towards global economic standards. That's why tension is rising and we're seeing the impact and reaction that US does and even its people are telling that they should focus on their own and not on other countries' welfare. Well, those that they're stepping on have an impact to them economically and that's why they're trying to touch other nation's welfare and politics too.

You need to understand that this is a process, and as such it is not something that happens so quickly, it could take decades for the US dollar to lose its status as the reserve currency of the world, however it is definitely a process that is already underway as several powerful countries have expressed their dissatisfaction with the US and their monetary policy, however what we do not know is which currency will replace it, as a reserve currency of the world is one of the cornerstones of the current economic system.

Bitcoin could surely be used as a currency for trade between nations, but it is not really suitable to be used as a reserve due to its volatility which can make any nation lose the great value of its national reserves if the price of Bitcoin falls all of a sudden, though it can also grow if it goes up it still wouldn't be an appropriate choice since both scenarios can go to any extent and it will have great impacts on the economy of that nation using Bitcoin as a reserve currency.

So Bitcoin wouldn't take the place of USD and become the global trading and reserve currency, if USD is to lose its throne and another currency is to take its place, it will probably be a currency from another powerful country with a great economy and its currency has a good value which doesn't fluctuate much.

No, the US dollar is still the number one reserve currency, and it is difficult to think of an alternative to it. Countries are only trying to hedge by diversifying central reserves, but the US dollar will inevitably have a high rate of hedging, even China has reserves of more than a trillion dollars. alternatives to the US dollar will not be suitable to be a global reserve currency, as the Chinese yuan focuses on making its currency undervalued, and therefore countries will not use it as a reserve, and the rest of the currencies have a market capacity of less than half a trillion dollars.

Economic growth and recession, the appearance of the USD in the financial system, I think it may be a few years before it shows its voice in all fields, the current context when some countries do not like the domination of the US, they have their own regulations to get rid of the USD power, as I have read before about petrodollar to maintain the influence of the USD in global energy with other countries Arab family. However, the rise of China and a more multipolar world than the BRICS countries are having their own economic moves, and the dollar's decline over time I think will soon be replaced.

Probably a topic for another section but I don't see the usd drop or increase making much moves over the next couple of years.  Can it fall out of favor, sure.  But when usd sinks so does the other world economies fiat system.  At a certain point you start to see correlation between all the fiat markets.  Either way I'm unsure from a micro view on things why people care all that much about that dynamic.

The future of using USD globally is certain to decline. While there may not be another currency that will replace the dollar, mushrooming alternatives could create a multipolar world. Many countries are realizing that maintaining one or two reserves is not diversified enough. As a result, global central banks are looking at a wider range of assets, including corporate debt, tangible assets such as real estate, and other currencies, to avoid escaping their dependent destiny.

BRICS is the main threat for the USD supremacy since it's a group of country that is now more powerful in terms of economical strength. USA is already struggling against China in terms of economic war while BRICS is composed of strong country including China that controls the 23% of the global economy. This is enough to bring down US dollar as dominant currency while inflation will kill more it's buying power in long term. I think BRICS will be the next USD in the future.

Looking at how BRICS has set itself up in all corners of the world and leaving the USA in the top west alone over there...that kingship is very much threatened! Economically, Politically, Technogically you name it all this amounts to put pressure on the USA, and China,Russia and it's allies aren't playing around as they are aggressive in their business models and growing their influence world over potentially leaving the US powerless!

And to top it off ,cryptocurrencies too seem to be having more influence  on the money markets which honestly doesn't really help fiat as they are kind of being destabilized by them too...but of course their impact won't be seen immediately but in due course this will be out for all to see.

I understand the desire of the BRICS countries to create an alternative to the dollar, but it must be remembered that the newly created currency will be provided by the national currencies of the participating countries. And given the inflation rate of the national currencies of these countries against the dollar, the new BRICS currency will not be able to compete.

This is not that simple, the US is a very powerful country with a lot of influence, so even if the BRICS nations are strong it will take more than that to displace the US dollar, after all there is no way to replace the US dollar without fundamentally changing the way the world economy works, and this means a huge economic crisis, so BRICS nations do not want this, and at best what they can do is to position themselves in order to take advantage when that crisis comes.

if that is the ratio from USD against the next most used currency(Euro) then I'm sure that we will never see that changing in the next coming years as USD stays strong holding its number 1 position in terms of most used currency worldwide, and those dumping that OP is calling is just a small part of what to come .
and also we can see even in crypto market that USDT is the most used currency in terms of exchanging their precious coins into fiat so yes it will remain this for another long years , don't know where OP find this concern actually.

That's true, I do not think that USA will let those nations grow that easily and establish some instability in those nations to make sure that they are not growing all that much. Just look at Brazil, they tried their best hand on the elections there, the nation was in a lot of turmoil because of the elections and anyone who thinks that USA had nothing to do with it is funny, of course they played a part there.

So, they will do their best to keep those nations down as much as they can, and of course that will lead to USD keeping its power and never losing it. That's at least what they are trying and I am sure that they will achieve it one way or another as well. It is not that simple, but it will be possible after a while.

They have been planning for this and I’m sure USA already anticipated this.
As the market fluctuates, its currency is affected too so I think this is just temporary and expect once the economy of US become better, USD dominance will be back. BRICS are composed of powerful countries too, imagine it takes more country just to bring down the USD, it will not be easy for sure.

Historically the dominant power of the time does not really fall due to external threats and instead it falls because of internal conflicts, neither BRICS or the EU can bring the US down, the US will have to do that work for them, something not really difficult to believe seeing how the US is still printing more and more fiat, so eventually a breaking point will be reached and we could see a major economic crisis all over the world, and only then those countries may try to take advantage of the situation.

At the moment, it is very early to say that a currency will replace USD in the near future. Looking at global economics and strategies, it is clear that the world is moving toward a new world order. China is aggressively taking over the world trade. One thing is clear that the USD monopoly is going to be challenged. Chinese Yuan might take over as the world's leading reserve currency.