Bitcoin Forum

What Bitcoin Phase are we currently at?

There are four stages or cycles in cryptocurrency market and we need to dig deep into them one after the other to know where we are currently, they are as follows:

The Accumulation Circle
The Markup Circle
The Distribution Circle
The Markdown Circle
https://www.ledger.com/academy/crypto-market-cycles-how-to-read-them-why-they-matter

I heard of an article that talked about being on the fourth bitcoin market cycle which is the bear market that renders the market to go dip the more while some have pointed out that we are already going out of the dip with bullrun in anticipation, the chart below actually give more narrative on the preparedness for the markup phase for bitcoin bullrun to begin gradually.

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1688601671188819968?t=4KOaK4Gniahiws_TMYDrGg&s=19
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/08/09/GrrMa.jpeg

Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

The latter. The most normal scenario is that between now and halving we will have an upside, without beating the $69K ATH of this cycle, and post-halving we will have a proper bull run, beating that ATH and I believe passing $100K clearly after several attempts. From there I dare say no more.

This is based on what previous Bitcoin cycles have been like, which need not repeat exactly, and this cycle is a sample of that, but they are a guide for us

Hmm, I have this analysis in the Wo community not sure if it was by the LFC_Bitcoin or Biodom. So do you think we are in the markup circle trap or markdown circle trap clearly besides the market value BTC is not much overvalued. Also, I was reading the Plan S2F model speculation still the journey is in the flow of $98k in NOV and around 120 to 150k in December well for the first target I'm more hopeful but for the secondary valuation, it can take a longer period of time. The accumulation Peroid of BTC is still open in my view until we hit the 35K.

After 35k there will be weak game for BTC to be overvalued, in the accumulation. Rather than that I think there can be inconsistency in the cyclical behavior on a shorter period of time.

This is one of the best time to accumulate. But bitcoin price may drop, do not sell. I can remember that the last halving was in May 2020, but bitcoin dropped from $10500 to $3800 in March 2020. After some months after halving, bitcoin all to all-time-high at the time. I mean it increased to over $19600 which was 2017 all-time-high.

If you want to accumulate, you can be accumulating bitcoin now.

Well, as we all already know, the Bitcoin market can be quite unpredictable. So, it is always wise to approach this with a healthy dose of caution. While some sources are indicating that we might be transitioning from the bear market (Markdown Circle) to a potential bull run (Markup Circle), this does not mean that past performances will be repeated in each new cycle. Each cycle is unique, and can lead to different outcomes. Personally, I'm currently in an accumulation cycle, and I'm continuing to buy as much as my finances allow. I still see no reason not to believe that we will experience the next bull run and reach ATH again, just as we've done many times before.

I'd prefer to call it disbelief phase, where we will keep going side ways for some months into 2024, even if we flip bullish we can't go over 35k to 40k this year, and it's healthy for the market but I don't like receiving myself, just because it looks like 2015 movement again doesn't mean anything unexpected can't happen, but I am prepared for whatever comes my way, I don't bother myself too much about what will happen before the halving.

I am also wondering why the ETF approval is said to be active or approved in 6 months time, it make me start wondering that these people know what they are doing, in 6 months time the halving would have been over and ETF approval will cause a price surge for Bitcoin, it looks planned out to me, I may be wrong.

Whatever phase the current cycle is, we are not surr what will be the next movement of market.

Assume the big bull run will start in 2024 after a halving but we can not say the market already ends its bear phase or when it will end the bear phase. We never know when and how it will end the bear phase.

We can not know will the 2021-2023 bear market phase will end in 2023 or expand to early months of 2024 and the market will have a superb deep crash as it had in March 2020.

Knowing about past market cycles is cool but it is not enough as you can not time in the current market by past market cycles.

The cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, is known for its volatility and cyclicality.  However, predicting with certainty which stage we are in can be a difficult task.  The phases described in your reference - accumulation, markup, distribution and decline - are one way to understand the historical trends and price movements of cryptocurrencies, but there is no precise formula to accurately determine the current phase.The event of the Bitcoin halving is known to impact its price, but there is no guarantee that an automatic price increase will occur after each halving.

It would be too easy and simple if information about past cycles could know for sure about upcoming market trends. So any fool could become rich. There are too many factors that can affect the length of the cycles, the bitcoin phases. Any negative (or positive) news will appear in the media and this will already affect the general mood of bitcoin investors, who may start buying or selling BTC in bulk, which will cause some changes in the current phase. It will create a pause, shorten or lengthen the phase for an indefinite period. Therefore, it would be naive to rely on past charts, but this should not be neglected either, because it allows you to have an idea of ​​a certain pattern in the bitcoin progress.

In general, there is a theory that btc-cycles are slightly lengthened each time. In principle, this is possible, because the price of bitcoin is growing, capitalization and the user base are also growing, which makes its own adjustments to seemingly familiar patterns.

One thing, we're near the bull run and the indicator is the halving next year. That's why if we're still given a chance to accumulate on this phase then do it for yourself. The next accumulation could be harder because the price of BTC by that time is going to be more expensive than ever.
Do not let your emotions you forget what you have to do when you can do the necessary because you're aware of the cycle and it is what's gonna happen soon.

I personally think that Bitcoin should be well above $50,000 by now, but then, there are a lot of circumstances holding the price of Bitcoin, i cant say exactly and for sure which phase we are right now, but what i do know and i am sure of is that, Bitcoin is getting prepared for the next halving and at the same time, preparing for a bull run, but then, like I've mentioned before, a lot of things are keeping Bitcoin from taking off at the moment, example is the hot topic right which is the Bitcoin ETF,  the several rejection of the Bitcoin ETF has indeed caused regulatory doubts in the minds of many, most especially the institutional investors, and also some notable influential figures in the society.

So for me personally, i have no doubt that if the ETF is approval, that alone is enough to send the price of Bitcoin to the range of $100,000 and above, this is also considering the fact that Bitcoin halving is also around the corner.

I can not agree more with you on this. Because Accumulation is when the price is good and this phase was already occurred in December 2022 when the price of BTC was around $16k and after that the price of BTC started to grow and now currently we are in markup circle, and this circle or cycle will run for the time until BTC will not reach to its ATH. The thing is BTC might go go beyond the ATH (expected one not the last year ATH) until people will start to sell there BTC or i should say to start Distribution circle. Means when people will start to book there profits.

And that time could start even now before the halving but people are smart enough to not start it now, because they know if they will hold the price will go up as the supply will decrease over demand and this will keep happening until a new ATH will be made and people will then start the Distribution circle and after that Markdown circle will start. And we are currently in Markup circle. So we all have to do is hold and if we could not able to accumulate BTC in the Accumulation Circle then we might get the opportunity in this phase too. So be prepared for the next halving event because after that the markup Circle will be on hype and people will make millions of dollars depending on the money they invested.

When we are talking on bitcoin accoumulation period or phase, it simply means the time one can conveniently set in to buy bitcoin and hold, consider this period as we are still in the dip even though there's preparedness for the market to pump more, if you could remember, we are coming down from bitcoin all time high of $68,000 till we are this low.

Which means if you still have someone interested to set in for the market at this period you'd better encourage them to buy abd hold because we may not do that dip again down to $16,000 anymore, by this time next year we would have been somewhere close to $100,000 or more, isn't this an advantage for anyone to enter, buy and hold with $29,400 as entry point.


What about the half reward of bitcoin mined the miners are to receive and release ibto the market, that alone has something to do in pulling the market demands and supply, just take this as an observation that bitcoin will rises after halving and there will be bullrun.

Predicting with certainty isn't difficult, just choose the years that you want to compare, say you want 3 year period for bitcoin then collect the graph for those periods and lay them side by side, if you were to do that, you can probably predict what might happen in the coming years based on the patterns that you've made. It's not difficult, you just need to add some effort and it's going to take some time. At the end of the day, it's just prediction and knowing that anyone can do that.

The bull run is still very far though, I mean it is next year so lots of time for us. So for me, we could still be in the period of accumulation.

The price is not that big, although it almost went x2 from the bottom price last year. But we are still very far from our last all time high. Meaning we are still in the middle grounds. And with that, we can interpret it as still in the accumulation phase. So instead of waiting for the bull run, then just continue to stack sats, DCA is your friend.  ;D

I would simply wait for Bitcoin Halving to occur before declaring it in a bull run or something like that. Any percent of correction can still happen on the Bitcoin chart, so don't be biased to be honest.
But for long term, this is a good buying spot. These prices will never come again in the future. I bet. SO if you have been waiting for a good time to buy, this is it.

Also, stay away from shitcoins. Cheers.

These are theories not rules. In other words the market doesn't have to follow these stages strictly.

In my opinion we are in uncharted waters because if you truly analyze the previous bull runs and the way they were growing, you can see these cycles had a repeating pattern which was broken in the last cycle since price could not go higher than $70k even though it had to go up to around $400k and have a "bubble" there then a bear market.
This is why what we have from that point, is a new trend that sometimes resembles the previous cycles and unless we can see a solid pattern again we can't start talking about repetition.

We also have the terrible situation with the global economy being in recession+inflation phase that makes bull runs harder.

We can't judge accurately because we do not know what is going to happen for sure, but we can only judge using the previous cycles, and even though history tends to repeat itself, we cannot be sure it will happen exactly this time.

I don't like to predict the market, i just do what is reasonable and that is to accumulate and also use BTC as much as i can, dca makes accumulation better, so i use it. Waiting for the halving is a very interesting feeling, but an advice to people is not to buy with all of their money, they can use dca to buy, and if you buy with funds you won't be needing, it will give you the opportunity to wait for the bull run, even if it takes sometime to come.

That indicator will not be far away for the next phase.
What about the previous cycle? I see the same and this is for the next bullrun, after the halving or yet to appear there will not be a significant enough increase for me it feels in the range of $50K after that maybe the end of the year to show a rally for the market.

It could be that the market starts to go down but it won't be as low as what I think it's all going sideways right now and considering after the halving it's going to have a different plan.
Right now only accumulation is important, as long as there is a decline and no increase I should be able to make an early entry.

We all can not time in the market and know where is bottom and when bottom will be found and confirmed. Bottom can be touched a few times before a bull run starts so I believe we will have two or three times to buy around bottom. If we miss all chances around bottom, it's our bad response against the market by being to hesitating to make buy orders.

Buying shitcoins when Bitcoin has yet ended its bear market is terrible. Because shitcoins are more vulnerable to death in bear market and if you buy them in bear market, you accept bigger risk.

It does not mean in a bull market, it is safer to buy shitcoins as they basically are shitcoins with no values and their prices are only temporarily and can disappear anytime by rug pulls, hacks, massive minting by developers or hackers.

If the price does not rise, this means that it will decline. Bitcoin’s attempt to stay above 30k, and the continuous failure to break resistance  means that correction will happen if we do not see a rapid jump that will move us above 37k.
I expect that we will be near the $55,000 levels until next April, and then it will be easy to start a new cycle worth $155,000.
from now until April, I expect that we will visit 21,000 before settling in 42,000 for a while.

The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, is highly volatile and often difficult to predict. Therefore, we should not rely too much on past performance patterns is very wise.

Each market cycle is truly a separate story and there is no guarantee that what has happened before will happen again in the same way. Please remain cautious and do not rely too much on predicting the market based on the past.

If you are continuing to accumulate in the accumulation cycle, it is a sensible and wise decision, especially if your finances allow. However, no one can make an accurate prediction about the future of the market. Keep yourself an optimistic view of Bitcoin's upside potential.

People should always treat altcoins as they are which is pump and dump schemes. It doesn't matter if we are in a bitcoin bull or bear market, we know at any time there are multiple altcoins that are being pumped and they are always dumped afterwards.
Knowing this, people can learn to ride the waves without being dumped on to lose money. Otherwise the biggest problem is when people think these useless projects have a "potential" so they end up buying them and bag holding them for long, hoping for profit while watching their capital melt away slowly.

Anything can happen in the Bitcoin market so you need to be cautious and cautious then invest in Bitcoin. According to everyone's opinion, good times are waiting for the Bitcoin market, which means that the future will definitely be good for Bitcoin. Hearing such news about Bitcoin is not only natural but also makes us more interested in investing, so it is not right to invest much more than our own interests after hearing such news, considering the ability of those who have it. Then you should invest in Bitcoin. Many people are spreading positive news about the market so that the market will change according to their wishes but it is not like that at all. Since you have to take the risk of your own money, the risk should be proportionate.

I agree with you, and knowing for sure that we are fast approaching the next Bitcoin's halving in 2024 and comparing the time we are in right now to when we were deep down in the ocean in 2022 with all the events that crashed the price,  the best thing to do right now is to buy regardless if the market will drop further pre-halving or post-halving before the next bull run as it is quite uncertain, however, one may reserve some bullet to catch up such a scenario which if there is ever gonna be such event this market cycle.

Now, in my opinion, we are at a rather uncertain point. It is unknown where bitcoin will go next, but according to the forecasts of my technical analysis, the price will either fall to 20 thousand, or fly to 40-50 thousand dollars per bitcoin. The fact is that now the price is in a triangle of a narrow type, and only by mid-September it will come out of it. Until then, we will be in a small fluctuation between 28 thousand dollars for bitcoin and 30 thousand. Therefore, the phase is not clear now, it is clear that some phase will be assigned later, but now I would call it a phase of uncertainty.

I feel that old comparisons and analyzes are unnecessary, past present and future are never stable and predictable. But it's also part of the reasons why we believe in what's going on right now, the market isn't really positive with the issues surrounding it that can easily cause price fluctuations, however, given the level of confidence in this market, I can also enthusiastically admit that a new bull cycle could begin soon in the next few years. It will be more comfortable with a long-term investment or accumulation strategy, the events that everyone mentions are widely spread, as well as some big macroeconomic news that will also impact this market.

Perhaps we are already in the initial phases of the bull market, it’s just that they will be long, almost 9 months of this year have already passed, but bitcoin is still at x2 from its bottom, and perhaps further growth will be just as slow with minor corrections. It seems that we will not see such low values for bitcoin as it was in 2022, and in the coming years we will only grow, entering a bull market phase.

I believe on the old cycles to be used to compare what is happening recently. If you check in four years after halving to the next halving, the pattern of bitcoin price movement is almost the same or similar. This even helps in predicting that 2022 will not be a good year for bitcoin. After bitcoin got to $15500 and stayed at $16000 for a long time. We believed that bull run will start this year and it happened. If not for the historical bitcoin price, many of us would not have predicted this. The halving time is getting closer, another indication that historical price of bitcoin indicating that we should buy more bitcoin and hold it for long.

The influence of the macroeconomic news for the market is there, because it can also bring the interest of many people to continue to enter the market before the end of this year. In addition, the time duration for the bull cycle itself may not change significantly immediately because it is still very possible for the cycle to occur after this year and also there is still quite a lot of people's belief in this. So there is a potential that this cycle can still occur again in the market in the future.

Actually, the old analysis is no longer unnecessary at this time, it's just that things that have happened in the past have started to be a little different from things that are happening now. For example, in the influence sector for the market, where now some very famous rich people are starting to be able to influence the market because their words can be heard directly by investors who like to buy the best assets in the market. Apart from that, news in some media can still take over to influence people who often enter the market so different things are starting to happen now.

There's product life cycle (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/product-life-cycle.asp), which is supposed to cover the stages of a life cycle of any product: introduction, growth, maturity, decline. It's actually based on interpretation of human life cycle, and it's vague enough that it can be applied, but that doesn't mean that it's useful for any product. For example, what's the life cycle of a wheel? It was invented, its usage continued to grow, I suppose it's been at the maturity stage for a while (or is it still growth because new types of wheels continue to appear?), but will it ever decline? It's a matter of interpretation, and it is an extreme case of something that proved to be particularly useful, but I'm just trying to show that it's not that simple and not that universal.
I believe the market life cycle phases are based on the product life cycle, and note that when I google 'four phases of a market life cycle', all results on the first page are from the product life cycle, so I'm not even sure how common is it to use the phases outlined in the article.
If we suppose that Bitcoin can go through the cycle for many times (and it seems to me that this is what the article indicates), we're probably at the accumulation phase. If it's a one-time thing, I'd say the second one.

Your simplistic, black-and-white view of business is horribly out of date. Have you ever thought about how quickly cryptocurrencies have grown and how they have turned established business structures on their head? Thanks to blockchain technology, even those without a physical location can now make more money than your usual business owner.

Do you really believe that logging in for an 8-hour shift and out again will bring you calm? Rethink that! The new breed of "business owner" may simply be a cryptocurrency enthusiast who never enters a conventional office because the future is digital. Although they might also have trouble sleeping due to market fluctuations, they are also at the vanguard of a contemporary economic revolution.

I will offer a slightly different answer than what would be expected in a topic like this.

Given that the majority of members (as well as the OP) are constantly looking for some starting/exit points and try to orientate themselves in relation to profit, they completely ignore the phase we are in if the majority has consciously accepted that we are served with some crazy theories about the fact that it is normal and acceptable to share our private keys (seed) and still pay a monthly fee for it.

Given that the OP in some way supports the company that does this (posting a link is a form of support), I chose this type of answer to ask myself what stage of mind we are in when they sell us stories that even the most naive people should not accept.

I say that we are still in the accumulation circle because the price is fair to buy more coins. The price of bitcoin can dump but no one knows if we will have a pump before the dump because it is hard to predict the price movement of bitcoin but one can only speculate on it. There is still opportunity for people to keep on buying now because we still have some time before we will reach bitcoin halving. After the halving,it will be hard for some people to buy bitcoin. I hope to see bitcoin price reach 40k this year end and am also hoping to see bitcoin price above 100k as the new ATH price. Bitcoin price depends on demand and supply.

I totally agree with what you are saying. Maybe in the next few weeks/months we could go down a little more but I doubt we'll go below $25k, this phase is a very long and important accumulation and it's also the perfect moment to buy something more because after 2024 I'm not so sure we'll ever see again bitcoin in the $20k-30k range. And besides the halving let's not forget about the ETFs, probably several of them will be approved next year.